Tail-winds Reversing
What if it is Structural:Demographics, Demand, Distortion and
DebtJoshua RosnerGraham Fisher & CoTotal Households by Age
Source: Census
Aging, Debt Distribution and Behavior Remnants of Crisis
Source: Census
Households by Age of Owner
Source: Census
5Homeownership Rates Highest in Demographics with Strongest
Household Formation
Source: Census5-Each incremental borrower required more creative
financing-6% increase in HOMEOWNERSHIP - effect on prices-Problems
with LTV in aging population-Automated appraisal in falling market
leads to unanticipated losses-Liquidity of homes v history makes
consumer asset liability mismatch likely and reduces value of
consumer flow of funds data-Rise in private label after 2001 report
foretold need for increased use of creative financing, GSEs MBS
purchase added fuel (And not yet understood risk to GSEs and
Govt)-Tax incentives in a environment of falling rates and
affordability products including low doc increases consumer risk
taking, drives prices further and reduces historic benefits of
HOMEOWNERSHIP as conveyed by 30 year at retirement
Median Age of Householder
Source: CensusMore than a Crisis Driven Trend
Source: CensusMore than a Crisis Driven Trend
Source: CensusFirst Time Homebuyers as % of PurchasesTotal
Student Loan Balances by Age
Source:Donghoon Lee (FRBNY/Equifax)
% of 25 Year Olds with Student Debt
Source:Donghoon Lee (FRBNY/Equifax)
What is Driving HPA? Investors.
Source: National Association of RealtorsWithout Investors Home
Sales are Really Worrying.
Source: National Association of Realtors
Without Investors Home Sales are Really Worrying.
Source: National Association of Realtors
Cash Credit Constraints or Lack of Demand?
Source: National Association of Realtors
Tail-winds ReversingThree former tail winds (and an end to
declining rates) are and will remain generational
headwinds:Democratization of credit which began as asset prices
outpaced real wage growth during the inflationary late
70s.Inflation of the 70's also drove acceleration of move from one
income to two income families and supported a one time boost to
housing and other consumption. Prior to the crisis:Majority of top
quintile of household income had two earnersMajority of mid
quintile had one income per householdLargest generation of
consumers (baby boom) entered peak consumption years as the economy
came out of the recession of the early 80s. Now they will consume
less and need more.Housing will lag employment and wages among
traditional first time buyer populations. Couple this with
behavioral changes toward homeownership, among younger cohorts, and
we are likely underestimating non-economic impact on
ownership.16
(also see: http://tinyurl.com/8ywen2a )
16
Total Housing InventoryTable with row headings in Column A and
column headings are in rows 6, 27, 48, 69, 90, 111, and 132.
Leading dots indicate sub-parts.Table 7. Estimates of the Total
Housing Inventory for the United States: 1965 to Present(Numbers in
thousands)1965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791979\r1198019811981\r219821983198419851986\11987\2198819891989\r31990199119921993\r41994199519961997199819992000200120022002\r5200320042005200620072008200920102011All
housing
units64,21365,21266,01467,17168,47969,77871,32073,31375,40777,46278,82180,18981,64583,49685,06185,73587,73988,98890,86291,87693,04495,25697,33399,318101,811103,653104,970105,729106,283107,276108,316109,611110,952112,655114,139115,621117,282119,044119,628121,480123,318119,297120,834122,187123,925126,012127,958130,113130,159130,599132,292..Vacant6,7126,7266,5386,2186,2186,1376,2386,3686,5586,9046,8966,7746,8616,9487,1297,5898,1017,9678,0708,1458,4798,9109,44610,17311,29411,63311,48112,24012,05912,02311,92611,89412,25712,66913,15513,41913,74814,11613,90814,47014,77914,33215,27415,59915,69416,43717,65218,70418,81518,73918,758.Year-round
vacant4,8534,9094,7624,4464,4374,3914,5594,6654,8515,1555,2025,1905,2245,2605,4155,8935,9966,0346,1366,3696,6937,0807,4007,8218,2658,5338,5189,3499,1289,1378,9328,9379,2299,5709,94510,11410,51610,84810,43910,91611,27210,77111,63111,88411,91612,45913,27613,93614,14314,29414,239...For
rent1,8841,7781,5661,3921,2961,2991,3531,4211,5211,6611,6471,5461,4721,4331,4311,5791,5751,5001,5241,6701,8101,9342,2212,5882,7522,8022,6112,7322,6622,7802,7692,8092,8582,9463,0082,9783,0463,1193,0243,2033,4973,3473,6763,8023,7213,7373,8484,0564,3934,2844,087...For
sale
only5485224994394084274224324675575915985745245666077347467598438629471,0069379789689861,0821,0641,0709708949531,0221,0821,1331,2051,1841,1481,3011,2771,2201,3081,3071,4511,8362,1172,2262,0201,9831,902...Rented
or
sold3303493483894024274785165245435365646516506407056235855955546336646646836886786617056606026286257728108348679279568568828778429769911,0601,1081,1301,075993908984...Held
off
market2,0922,2612,3492,2272,3322,2382,3072,2972,3402,3932,4292,4822,5282,6532,7783,0033,0643,2033,2593,3023,3893,5353,5103,6143,8484,0854,2604,8304,7424,6864,5644,6094,6464,7935,0225,1365,3385,5895,4115,5305,6215,3625,6715,7845,6845,7786,1816,5796,7377,1207,266...Occasional
use5045465715516196156526425886176497057076897107948148849099599269929779911,0661,2131,2971,5651,4851,4941,4431,5081,6121,6671,7091,8181,7921,9481,8921,8871,9021,8191,9891,9671,8841,8581,9932,0712,0682,2412,268...URE3794344604384544294164194334524704674384675415915686056155886426226597417878879481,0141,0681,0841,0119948158018528859109651,0371,0641,0359959941,0681,1281,1981,1391,1701,1871,2541,197...Other1,2091,2801,3181,2381,2581,1951,2391,2371,3201,3251,3091,3101,3831,4981,5281,6181,6831,7151,7351,7541,8211,9211,8751,8831,9961,9852,0142,2512,1892,1072,1112,1082,2192,3252,4612,4332,6362,6762,4822,5792,6842,5482,6882,7492,6722,7223,0493,3383,4823,6253,801.Seasonal1,8601,8171,7761,7721,7821,7461,6801,7031,7061,7501,6941,5841,6371,6881,7141,6962,1061,9341,9341,7761,7871,8302,0462,3523,0293,1002,9632,8912,9312,8862,9942,9573,0283,0993,2093,3053,2323,2683,4693,5543,5073,5613,6433,7153,7783,9784,3764,7684,6734,4444,519..Total
occupied57,50158,48659,47660,95262,26163,64065,08166,94568,84970,55871,92573,41574,78476,54877,93278,14679,63881,02082,79383,73184,56586,34687,88789,14590,51792,02093,48993,48994,22495,25396,39197,71798,69599,985100,984102,202103,534104,928105,720107,010108,539104,965105,560106,588108,231109,575110,306111,409111,344111,860113,534.Owner36,23037,10937,84238,91840,04940,83441,81643,09644,42445,61546,46347,51848,46149,73951,08650,97252,22353,00754,08454,23754,67155,67156,15256,84457,91558,70059,75559,75560,24861,01061,82362,53363,13664,73966,04167,14368,63870,09771,25072,59373,71371,27872,05473,57574,55375,38075,15975,56675,01474,79175,091.Renter21,27121,37721,63422,03422,21122,80623,26623,84924,42524,94325,46225,89726,32426,81026,84727,17427,41528,01328,70929,49529,89430,67531,73632,30232,60233,32033,73433,73433,97634,24234,56835,18435,55835,24634,94335,05934,89634,83134,47034,41734,82633,68733,50633,01333,67834,19535,14735,84336,33037,06938,443All
housing units..Vacant.Year-round vacant...For rent...For sale
only...Rented or sold...Held off market...Occasional
use...URE...Other.Seasonal..Total
occupied.Owner.RenterFootnotes:Source: Current Population Survey,
Series H-111, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233\1
Beginning in 1986, seasonal vacant mobile homes were included in
the count of vacant seasonal housing units.\2 Seasonal vacant
housing units were underestimated prior to 1987.\r1 Revised to
reflect changes made in 1980. See Source and Accuracy Statement for
more information.\r2 Revised to reflect updated processing
procedures.\r3 Revised to include year-round vacant mobile
homes.\r4 Revised based on the 1990 Census.\r5 Revised based on the
2000 Census.
CHART Households by
Age255943175407116141087885996380304526284341538711596110479026635531792909434954351180210906905769603346288943865314120051107291036909359231104546516712176111929327699836303413480851191200911523960071733790357149915086119441180697457224403835875288509911998118929909732141433852533653251200312038103947536432740945910544711817122301062275404554435961015593118101221610824774447564737623956821181312588110217793490951946794600911529127581113881655090547671166447117211280511212836951045857752768041170312939111498716516258347810713711861129161130189105350587782987212122271282011631925855445991838577821248212905117809210560662208598823312969126021218393835842634286798317133281258512284975360426569925292521398012654125251011264326443951496391446312694127041022666856109952598021532612505129471037969335695946596391602012354130741060370675510984899601659612471131211070072015438963710377174811262813073108517305550397811062917997130991285211157743951979652108501870313211128681125077485228961410969193231363012846114108045541596241130019952140181280511590812751219423110492055514514125291173384234882924611077213041475112524120018526485988101119721774155471255912043887850228614111272171816576124381183490615257885911198218621641312154116689014526584721124522293168371218811639916854448400110522291417590122241180395625282835410871232271800712401119089578516086471066723823188431246911679972954358463105702394319547130721127210225577085191030023969201581357111373102165860852010107239552092713592113251041964098521105102405421969142771149010979639184121057624031222081520311472110046611853510521240692262316261113611129966098738104212322123138168241149911550673491731014123248233921750311528116236795922398962301623732182641168711772666296679767227792414119266119261180365539400982522448245361990912284118296357946398392217124633198831284211992623394469811215192487220387131641210661409331102412125124530218281334812015
Under 25 years25-2930-3435-4445-5455-6465-7475+
Households by AgeTable with row headers in column A, and column
headers in rows 6 through 9.HH-3. Households, by Age of
Householder: 1960 to Present(Numbers in thousands)For more
information about ASEC, including the source and accuracy
statement, see the technical documentation accessible at:
http:/www.census.gov/apsd/techdoc/cps/cps-main.htmlAge of
householderMedianAllUnder 25
years25-2930-3435-4445-5455-6465-7475+agehouseholds19602,5594,3175,40711,61410,8788,5996,3803,04547.352,79919612,6284,3415,38711,59611,0479,0266,3553,17947.653,55719622,9094,3495,43511,80210,9069,0576,9603,34647.654,76419632,8894,3865,31412,00511,0729,1036,9093,59247.755,27019643,1104,5465,16712,17611,1929,3276,9983,63047.756,14919653,4134,8085,11912,00911,5239,6007,1733,79047.957,43619663,5714,9915,08611,94411,8069,7457,2244,03848.158,40619673,5875,2885,09911,99811,8929,9097,3214,14348.159,23619683,8525,3365,32512,00312,03810,3947,5364,32748.260,81319694,0945,9105,44711,81712,23010,6227,5404,55448.162,21419704,3596,1015,59311,81012,21610,8247,7444,75648.163,40119714,7376,2395,68211,81312,58811,0217,7934,90948.164,77819725,1946,7946,00911,52912,75811,1388,1655,09048.066,67619735,4767,1166,44711,72112,80511,2128,3695,10447.668,25119745,8577,5276,80411,70312,93911,1498,7165,16247.369,85919755,8347,8107,13711,86112,91611,3018,9105,35047.371,12019765,8778,2987,21212,22712,82011,6319,2585,54447.272,86719775,9918,3857,78212,48212,90511,7809,2105,60646.974,14219786,2208,5988,23312,96912,60212,1839,3835,84246.676,03019796,3428,6798,31713,32812,58512,2849,7536,04246.677,33019806,5699,2529,25213,98012,65412,52510,1126,43246.180,77619816,4439,5149,63914,46312,69412,70410,2266,68545.982,36819826,1099,5259,80215,32612,50512,94710,3796,93345.883,52719835,6959,4659,63916,02012,35413,07410,6037,06745.983,91819845,5109,8489,96016,59612,47113,12110,7007,20145.685,40719855,4389,63710,37717,48112,62813,07310,8517,30545.486,78919865,5039,78110,62917,99713,09912,85211,1577,43945.288,45819875,1979,65210,85018,70313,21112,86811,2507,74845.389,47919885,2289,61410,96919,32313,63012,84611,4108,04545.391,06619895,4159,62411,30019,95214,01812,80511,5908,12745.192,83019905,1219,42311,04920,55514,51412,52911,7338,42345.393,34719914,8829,24611,07721,30414,75112,52412,0018,52645.494,31219924,8598,81011,19721,77415,54712,55912,0438,87845.795,66919935,0228,61411,12721,71816,57612,43811,8349,06145.996,3911993r5,2578,85911,19821,86216,41312,15411,6689,01445.696,42619945,2658,47211,24522,29316,83712,18811,6399,16845.797,10719955,4448,40011,05222,91417,59012,22411,8039,56245.998,99019965,2828,35410,87123,22718,00712,40111,9089,57846.099,62719975,1608,64710,66723,82318,84312,46911,6799,72946.1101,01819985,4358,46310,57023,94319,54713,07211,27210,22546.3102,52819995,7708,51910,30023,96920,15813,57111,37310,21646.6103,87420005,8608,52010,10723,95520,92713,59211,32510,41946.8104,70520016,4098,52110,51024,05421,96914,27711,49010,97947.0108,20920026,3918,41210,57624,03122,20815,20311,47211,00447.2109,29720036,6118,53510,52124,06922,62316,26111,36111,29947.5111,27820046,6098,73810,42123,22123,13816,82411,49911,55047.8112,00020056,7349,17310,14123,24823,39217,50311,52811,62348.0113,34320066,7959,2239,89623,01623,73218,26411,68711,77248.3114,38420076,6629,6679,76722,77924,14119,26611,92611,80348.6116,01120086,5539,4009,82522,44824,53619,90912,28411,82949.0116,78320096,3579,4639,83922,17124,63319,88312,84211,99249.3117,18120106,2339,4469,81121,51924,87220,38713,16412,10649.7117,53820116,1409,33110,24121,25124,53021,82813,34812,01550.1118,682Footnote:r
Revised based on population from the decennial census for that
year.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March
andAnnual Social and Economic Supplements, 2011 and earlier.FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION contact:Fertility and Family Statistics
Branch301-763-2416Internet Release Date: November 2011
Ownership by IncomeTable with row headings in column A and
column headings in rows 5-11.Table 17. Homeownership Rates by
Family Income:1994 to PresentYear and quarterU.S.Households with
family income greater than or equal to the median family
income\1Households with family income less than the median family
income19941st.......63.878.548.12nd.......63.878.448.03rd.......64.178.348.94th.......64.278.848.619951st......64.279.148.12nd......64.779.548.63rd......65.079.649.04th......65.179.849.419961st......65.179.749.42nd......65.480.349.23rd......65.680.549.44th......65.480.149.819971st......65.479.749.92nd......65.780.850.03rd......66.080.950.24th......65.780.550.019981st......65.980.750.22nd......66.080.750.03rd......66.881.651.14th......66.480.751.119991st......66.781.151.22nd......66.681.550.83rd......67.081.751.44th......66.981.651.220001st......67.181.451.42nd......67.281.850.83rd......67.781.752.24th......67.581.651.820011st......67.581.751.62nd......67.782.051.73rd......68.182.252.64th......68.082.253.02002\r1st......67.882.052.42nd......67.682.251.53rd......68.083.051.94th......68.383.252.420031st......68.083.351.32nd......68.083.651.63rd......68.483.752.14th......68.683.652.120041st......68.683.851.52nd......69.283.953.13rd......69.084.052.74th......69.284.652.520051st......69.184.553.02nd......68.684.052.73rd......68.883.752.84th......69.084.353.120061st......68.583.752.42nd......68.784.152.63rd......69.084.453.04th......68.984.552.920071st68.483.352.12nd..68.283.452.03rd..68.283.751.94th..67.883.050.920081st67.882.851.22nd..68.183.551.83rd67.983.052.04th67.582.951.22009.1st67.382.451.02nd..67.482.251.53rd..67.681.951.74th..67.281.850.22010\21st.67.182.052.22nd.66.981.951.93rd.66.981.951.94th..66.581.751.420111st.66.481.551.42nd.65.981.250.63rd.66.381.351.34th..66.080.851.3Source:
Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Series H-111,
Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233\r Revised based on the
2000 Census.\1 Based on family or primary individual income.\2
Beginning in 2010, we began imputing missing values for the family
income question.Previously, householders not responding to this
question were excluded from the homeownershipcalculations for those
below/above the median family income level. When compared to
previousprocedures, this change resulted in an increase in the
homeownership rate of 1.9 percentagepoints for those at or below
the median family income and an increase of 0.4 percentage
pointsfor those above the median family income level for the fourth
quarter 2011. Under previousprocedures (not imputing missing
values) for the fourth quarter 2011, the homeownership ratewas 49.2
percent for those at or below the median family income and 80.4
percent for thoseabove the median family income level. Data users
should keep this in mind when comparingdata from 2010 and later to
earlier data.
CHART Homeownership by
Age19.338.657.17077.48074.418.838.355.469.37779.97517.938.654.868.976.58075.117.237.75468.175.979.574.817.236.753.667.37679.9751636.453.567.276.180.275.515.835.953.266.975.679.575.616.635.353.266.675.579.675.815.735.251.866.375.279.376.315.333.851.265.874.88077.214.933.650.565.175.180.277.114.833.650.865.175.379.977.314.934.150.664.575.279.377.415.934.453.165.275.279.578.11834.75365.575.68078.917.73552.666.175.880.179.118.236.253.666.975.780.979.319.936.553.867.2768180.121.738.154.667.976.580.380.422.538.954.868.276.781.380.322.938.854.968.676.381.180.622.839.856.568.376.681.480.525.240.257.469.277.281.781.125.740.956.869.376.681.280.624.841.855.968.976.280.980.924.840.654.467.875.480.680.423.64053.5677580.180.123.337.752.566.274.479.580.522.836.851.66573.57980.522.634.649.863.572.778.580.9
&ALess Than 2525-2930-3435-4445-5455-6465+
Homeownership by AgeHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY AGELess Than
2525-2930-3435-4445-5455-6465+198219.338.657.17077.48074.4198318.838.355.469.37779.975198417.938.654.868.976.58075.1198517.237.75468.175.979.574.8198617.236.753.667.37679.97519871636.453.567.276.180.275.5198815.835.953.266.975.679.575.6198916.635.353.266.675.579.675.8199015.735.251.866.375.279.376.3199115.333.851.265.874.88077.2199214.933.650.565.175.180.277.1199314.833.650.865.175.379.977.3199414.934.150.664.575.279.377.4199515.934.453.165.275.279.578.119961834.75365.575.68078.9199717.73552.666.175.880.179.1199818.236.253.666.975.780.979.3199919.936.553.867.2768180.1200021.738.154.667.976.580.380.4200122.538.954.868.276.781.380.3200222.938.854.968.676.381.180.6200322.839.856.568.376.681.480.5200425.240.257.469.277.281.781.1200525.740.956.869.376.681.280.6200624.841.855.968.976.280.980.9200724.840.654.467.875.480.680.4200823.64053.5677580.180.1200923.337.752.566.274.479.580.5201022.836.851.66573.57980.5201122.634.649.863.572.778.580.9
CHART Net Change
Households189815751554135817941275188813003446159211593911372149916691021164517065179651364750681188363713911510134683113641371792149518781209565414623582657
Net Change in Number of Households
Sheet5Net Change in Number of
Households1972189819731575197415541975135819761794197712751978188819791300198034461981159219821159198339119841372198514991986166919871021198816451989170619905171991965199213641993750199468119951883199663719971391199815101999134620008312001136420021371200379220041495200518782006120920075652008414200962320105822011657
