Americas Energy Challenges Steven E. Koonin Under Secretary for
Science US Department of Energy June 2011
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
Slide 2
Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2009: ~94.6 Quads 2
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/
Slide 3
Energy Essentials Fewer, long-lived centralized facilities with
distribution networks Change has required decades Power and fuels
are commodities with thin margins Markets with government
regulation and distortion Technology alone does not a
transformation make Transport and Stationary are disjoint Transport
is powered by oil Power Requires boiling large amounts of water
Sized for extremes (storage is difficult) Numerous sources with
differing CapEx and OpEx Emissions Base/Peak/Intermittency Supply
Many distributed players, shorter-lived assets User benefit
(economics, convenience, personal preference) Determined by price,
standards, behavior Little attention to system optimization for
stationary use Demand A big and expensive system In private hands
Governed by economics, modulated by government policies As a whole,
energy is 3
Slide 4
4 Source: EIA US energy supply since 1850 Energy supply has
changed on decadal scales
Slide 5
U.S. Energy Challenges Energy
SecurityEnvironmentCompetitiveness Share of Reserves Held by
NOC/IOC Daily Spot Price OK WTI Global Lithium-ion Battery
Manufacturing (2009) 5 Federal Deficit
Slide 6
Administration Goals Transport Reduce oil imports by 1/3 by
2025 (~3.7 M bbl/day) Put 1 million electric vehicles on the road
by 2015 Stationary By 2035, generate 80% of electricity from a
diverse set of clean energy sources Make non-residential buildings
20% more energy efficient by 2020 Environmental Cut greenhouse gas
emissions in the range of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, and 83% by
2050 6
Slide 7
Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean
Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 7
Slide 8
8 Trends in Car and Light-Duty Truck Average Attributes showing
changes in customer preferences, data from (EPA2010)
Slide 9
9 Cumulative retail price equivalent and fuel consumption
reduction relative to 2007 for spark ignition powertrain without
hybridization (NRC2010)
Slide 10
Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean
Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 10
Slide 11
Progressively Electrify the Fleet Challenges with Batteries and
Motors Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Hybrid Electric Vehicle
(HEV) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Plug-in Electric Hybrid
Vehicle (PHEV) 11
Slide 12
Battery Evolution: R&D to Commercialization 12 The energy
storage effort is engaged in a wide range of topics, from
fundamental materials work through battery development and testing
High energy cathodes Alloy, Lithium anodes High voltage
electrolytes Lithium air couples High rate electrodes High energy
couples Fabrication of high E cells Ultracapacitor carbons Hybrid
Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems 10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV systems
Advanced lead acid Ultracapacitors Lab and University Focus
Industry Focus Advanced Materials Research Commercialization High
Energy & High Power Cell R&D Full System Development And
Testing
Slide 13
Hybrid Electric Systems Petroleum Displacement via Fuel
Substitution and Improved Efficiency 13 Administration Goal:1
Million EVs by 2015 Targets and Status 2014 PHEV: Battery that has
40-mile all-electric range and costs $3,400 2015 Power Electronics:
Cost for electric traction system no greater than $12/kW peak by
2015 Status: $8,000-$11,000 for PHEV 40-mile range battery Status:
Current cost of electric traction system is $40/kW Types of
Vehicles and Benefits HEV PHEV EV Nissan Leaf Toyota Prius Chevy
Volt All Electric 50 MPG >100 MPGe PHEV Battery Cost per kWh
Power Electronics Cost per kW System Cost $1,000 - $1,200 $700 -
$950 Goal = $300 Goal = $500 2010 2012 2014 2008 2015 $19 $22 Goal
= $17 Goal = $12
Slide 14
Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean
Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 14
Slide 15
R E F I N I N G Deploy Advanced/Alternative Fuels 15 Platforms
/ Pathways Feedstock Production & Logistics Energy crops
Agricultural byproducts Waste Streams Algae Coal Natural Gas
Feedstock Production & Logistics Energy crops Agricultural
byproducts Waste Streams Algae Coal Natural Gas Ethanol Methanol
Butanol Olefins Aromatics Gasoline Diesel Jet Dimethyl Ether Heat
and Power Co or By Products Power Pyrolysis Oil Platform Syngas
Platform Liquid Bio-oil Enzymatic Hydrolysis Sugars Fermentation
Cellulosic Sugar Platform Algal and other Bio-Oils
Transesterification Catalytic Upgrading Products Feedstocks Fast
Pyrolysis Gasification Lipid (Oil) Platform Raw syngas Filtration
& Clean-up Upgrading Other enzymatic/biochemical methods
Slide 16
Biomass can provide significant carbon 16 FuelFossilAgriculture
Biomass 15% of Transportation Fuels 1000 Annual US Carbon (Mt
C)
Slide 17
Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean
Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 17
Slide 18
Categories of US Energy Consumption 18 Buildings use about 40%
of total US energy
Slide 19
U.S. Refrigerator Properties 19
Slide 20
Lighting 20 Source: http://gaia.lbl.gov/btech/papers/3831.pdf
Image: False color image of workstation 35 with overhead lights at
100% and undercabinet light off. Calibration bar is in candelas per
meter squared.
Slide 21
Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic Science Applied R&D
Solid-State Lighting Goal : reduce 22% of nations total electrical
energy usage by half Wide Bandgap Semiconductors Heteroepitaxial
systems Wide Bandgap Semiconductors Heteroepitaxial systems
Synthesis : Chemical Vapor Deposition Modeling GaGa MgMg N H Theory
and modeling of defect energies Fundamental understanding helps
eliminate Defects Key Enabler for Manufacturing Lumileds
(originally with HP) General Electric Cabot Superior Micropowders
Dow Corning Veeco Emcore Cree Bridgelux (under discussion)
Essential Tool Development Sandia Labs & Lumiled Collaboration:
Cantilever Epitaxy reduces dislocation densities 100X (R&D 100
Award) Emcore Discovery 125 system Sandia Labs & RPI
demonstrates an 18% increase in light output efficiency by
modifying heteroepitaxial interface
Slide 22
Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean
Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 22
Slide 23
The U.S. Grid The numbers > 200,000 miles of transmission
lines distribute approx. 1 TW of power Over 3,500 utility
organizations Desiderata Reliability Efficiency Security
Flexibility to integrate intermittent renewables Two-way flow of
information and power Growth to handle growing demand Challenges
Active management is required to balance generation, transmission,
and demand at all times Excursion from ideal operation can be
catastrophic 23
Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic ScienceApplied R&D
Superconducting Wire: From Science to the Grid Invented single
crystal-like flexible templates by the kilometer: Ion Beam Assisted
Deposition (IBAD) Rolling Assisted Bi-axially Textured Substrate
(RABiTS) Developed epitaxial buffers: Maximize current flow
(understand vortex dynamics) Develop segregation & growth
mechanisms (new materials) Modify properties with nanostructures
Understand quantum effects in film growth Columbus, OH Albany, NY
Long Island, NY Two companies are now manufacturing kilometers of
superconducting cables based on the IBAD and RABiTS processes These
are deployed in three demonstration projects in the grid.
Slide 31
Transport Stationary Six Strategies Supply Deploy Clean
Electricity Deploy Alternative Fuels Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the Fleet Demand Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency Increase Vehicle Efficiency 31
Slide 32
Deploy Clean Electricity Other technologies Natural gas Hydro
Solar thermal (parabolic troughs) Geothermal 32 Wind Solar
Photovoltaic (PV) Concentrating Solar Power Carbon Capture and
Storage Nuclear Energy
Slide 33
US Gas Supply by Source 33 Unconventional gas sources will grow
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release
Slide 34
US Renewable Generation (GWh) 34 Renewables are small, but
growing rapidly, especially wind Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
2011 Early Release
Slide 35
Renewable Electricity Costs (2009) 35 Coal/gas-fired ~ 3-6
cents Nuclear ~ 7 cents Source: 2009 Renewable Energy Data Book
(EERE)
Slide 36
Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic ScienceApplied R&D
Low Cost Solar Cells: From Fundamental Synthesis Research to
Commercialization Basic research focused on materials-centric
aspects of a micro- transfer printing process for single
crystalline silicon and other semiconductors, dielectrics and
metals GaAs wafer AlAs release layers GaAs epi-stacks for solar
microcells etch in HF release; transfer print regrow EERE Solar
America Initiative: E EERE Solar America Initiative: Established
new materials strategies & manufacturing methods for low-cost,
high performance photovoltaic modules Micro-Contact Printed Solar
Cells Industrial collaborations John Rogers, Ralph Nuzzo
(co-founders)
Slide 37
DOE SunShot Program 2004 Systems Prices 2010 Systems Prices
Power Electronics Cost Reductions BOS Improvements BOS Soft Costs
Reductions Module Efficiency Improvements Manufacturing Cost
Reductions $1/W Target $1/W Installed Systems Price ($/W) $3.80/W
Power Electronics Balance of Systems (BOS) PV Module 37
Slide 38
Areas of DOE Research Focus 38
Slide 39
Training the next generation of innovators 39
http://science.energy.gov/~/media/np/pdf/Accelerating_Innovation_9_01142011.pdf
Survey of 500+ DOE-supported nuclear science PhDs (1999-2004) 1/3
government service or at national research labs 1/3 science and
technology industries 1/3 educate and train the next generation of
skilled workers
Slide 40
We must integrate diverse players with diverse roles
Universities Knowledge, people, education, credible voices National
labs Large facilities and programs, multidisciplinary RD&D
For-profit sector High-risk innovation, take technology to scale
Optimize under economics and regulation Government Consistent
policies, precompetitive R&D 40
DOE-QTR Scope The DOE-QTR will provide a context and robust
framework for the Departments energy programs, as well as
principles by which to establish multiyear programs plans and
budgets. It will also offer high-level views of the technical
status and potential of various energy technologies. The primary
focus of the DOE-QTR process and document will be on the following:
Framing the energy challenges A discussion of the roles of
government, industry, national laboratories, and universities in
energy system transformation Summary roadmaps for advancing key
energy technologies, systems, and sectors Principles by which the
Department can judge the priority of various technology efforts A
discussion of support for demonstration projects The connections of
energy technology innovation to energy policy 43
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
Slide 44
DOE-QTR Timeline Nov 2010 PCAST made recommendations for DOE to
do QER 3/14 4/15 Public comment period for DOE-QTR Framing Document
4/20 First batch of public comments released on project website
Through mid-June Hold workshops and discussions of each of the Six
Strategies End July/Aug Submit DOE-QTR to White House for approval
Before Dec 2011 Release DOE-QTR http://www.energy.gov/QTR
Slide 45
DOE-QTR Logic Flow 45 Energy context Supply/demand Energy
essentials Energy challenges Oil security US Competitiveness
Environmental Impact Players and Roles Private/Govt Within govt
Econ/Policy/Tech Acad/Lab/Private Technology Assessments History
Status Potential Six strategies DOE portfolio principles DOE
priorities and portfolio Balanced within and across strategies
Program plans and budgets Technology Roadmaps Milestones Cost
Schedule Performers http://www.energy.gov/QTR