America’s Energy Challenges

America’s Energy Challenges

Steven E. KooninUnder Secretary for Science US Department of Energy June 2011

http://www.energy.gov/QTR

2

Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2009: ~94.6 Quads

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/

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Energy Essentials

• Fewer, long-lived centralized facilities with distribution networks• Change has required decades • Power and fuels are commodities with thin margins• Markets with government regulation and distortion• Technology alone does not a transformation make• Transport and Stationary are disjoint• Transport is powered by oil• Power

• Requires boiling large amounts of water • Sized for extremes (storage is difficult)• Numerous sources with differing…

• CapEx and OpEx • Emissions• Base/Peak/Intermittency

Supply

• Many distributed players, shorter-lived assets• User benefit (economics, convenience, personal preference)• Determined by price, standards, behavior• Little attention to system optimization for stationary use

Demand

• A big and expensive system• In private hands• Governed by economics, modulated by government policies

As a whole, energy is

4Source: EIA

US energy supply since 1850

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000

RenewablesNuclearGasOilHydroCoalWood

Energy supply has changed on decadal scales

5

U.S. Energy ChallengesEnergy Security EnvironmentCompetitiveness

Share of Reserves Held by NOC/IOC

Daily Spot Price OK WTI Global Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing (2009)

Federal Deficit

6

Administration GoalsTransport

Reduce oil imports by 1/3 by 2025 (~3.7 M bbl/day) Put 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015

Stationary By 2035, generate 80% of electricity from a diverse set of clean energy

sources Make non-residential buildings 20% more energy efficient by 2020

Environmental Cut greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 17% below 2005 levels by

2020, and 83% by 2050

Transport

Stationary

Six Strategies

Supply

Deploy Clean Electricity

Deploy Alternative

Fuels

Modernize the Grid

Progressively Electrify the

Fleet

Demand

Increase Building and

Industrial Efficiency

Increase Vehicle

Efficiency

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8

Trends in Car and Light-Duty Truck Average Attributes showing changes in customer preferences, data from (EPA2010)

9Cumulative retail price equivalent and fuel consumption reduction relative to 2007 for spark ignition powertrain without hybridization (NRC2010)

Transport

Stationary

Six Strategies

Supply


Deploy Alternative

Fuels

Modernize the Grid


Fleet

Demand



Increase Vehicle

Efficiency

10

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Progressively Electrify the Fleet

Challenges with Batteries and Motors

Batteries

• Cost • Performance• Physical Characteristics

Adequate supply chain

• Rare-earth elements in permanent magnet motors

• Lithium in batteries • OEM & component

manufacturing capacity

Charging

• Infrastructure• Standardization of

chargers and grid interface• Charging times• Consumer behavior

Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)

Plug-in Electric Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)

Battery Evolution: R&D to Commercialization

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The energy storage effort is engaged in a wide range of topics, from fundamental materials work through battery development and testing

•High energy cathodes•Alloy, Lithium

anodes•High voltage

electrolytes •Lithium air couples

•High rate electrodes•High energy

couples•Fabrication of high

E cells•Ultracapacitor

carbons

•Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems•10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV

systems•Advanced lead acid•UltracapacitorsLab and University Focus

Industry Focus

Advanced MaterialsResearch

CommercializationHigh Energy &

HighPower Cell R&D

Full System Development

And Testing

Hybrid Electric SystemsPetroleum Displacement via Fuel Substitution and Improved Efficiency

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Administration Goal:1 Million EVs by 2015

Targets and Status

2014 PHEV: Battery that has 40-mile all-electric range and costs $3,4002015 Power Electronics: Cost for electric traction system no greater than $12/kW peak by 2015

Status: $8,000-$11,000 for PHEV 40-mile range batteryStatus: Current cost of electric traction system is $40/kW

Types of Vehicles and Benefits

HEV

PHEV

EVNissan Leaf

Toyota Prius

Chevy Volt

All Electric

50 MPG

>100 MPGe

PHEV Battery Cost per kW·h

Power Electronics Cost per kW

System Cost

$1,000 - $1,200

$700 - $950

Goal = $300

Goal = $500

2010

2012

2014

2008

2015

$19

$22

Goal = $17

Goal = $12

Transport

Stationary

Six Strategies

Supply


Deploy Alternative

Fuels

Modernize the Grid


Fleet

Demand



Increase Vehicle

Efficiency

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R E

F I

N I

N G

Deploy Advanced/Alternative Fuels

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Platforms / Pathways

FeedstockProduction& Logistics• Energy crops• Agricultural

byproducts• Waste

Streams• Algae• Coal • Natural Gas

• Ethanol• Methanol• Butanol• Olefins• Aromatics• Gasoline• Diesel• Jet• Dimethyl

Ether • Heat and

Power

Co or By Products

PowerPyrolysis Oil Platform

Syngas Platform

LiquidBio-oil

Enzymatic Hydrolysis

Sugars FermentationCellulosic Sugar Platform

Algal and other Bio-Oils

Transesterification Catalytic Upgrading

ProductsFeedstocks

Fast Pyrolysis

Gasification

Lipid (Oil) Platform

Raw syngas

Filtration &

Clean-up

Upgrading

Other enzymatic/biochemical methods

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Biomass can provide significant carbon

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Gasoli

neDiese

lCoa

lNatu

ral g

as

Other p

etrole

umNGLsCor

nPap

erSoy

Wood

pulp

Whea

t

Edible fa

ts/oils

Meat/P

oultry

Cotton

Biomas

s tod

ay

Biomas

s poten

tial

Fuel Fossil Agriculture Biomass

↑

15% of Transportation Fuels

1000

Ann

ual U

S C

arbo

n (M

t C)

Transport

Stationary

Six Strategies

Supply


Deploy Alternative

Fuels

Modernize the Grid


Fleet

Demand



Increase Vehicle

Efficiency

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Categories of US Energy ConsumptionBuildings use about 40% of total US energy

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U.S. Refrigerator Properties

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Lighting

Source: http://gaia.lbl.gov/btech/papers/3831.pdf

Image: False color image of workstation 35 with overhead lights at 100% and undercabinet light off. Calibration bar is in candelas per meter squared.

Manufacturing/CommercializationBasic Science Applied R&D

Solid-State LightingGoal : reduce 22% of nation’s total electrical energy usage by half

Wide Bandgap Semiconductors

Heteroepitaxial systems

Synthesis : Chemical Vapor

Deposition Modeling

Ga

Mg

N

H

Theory and modelingof defect energies

Fundamental understanding helps

eliminate Defects

Key Enabler for Manufacturing

• Lumileds (originally with HP)• General Electric• Cabot Superior Micropowders• Dow Corning• Veeco• Emcore• Cree• Bridgelux (under discussion)

Essential Tool Development

Sandia Labs & Lumiled Collaboration:

Cantilever Epitaxy reduces dislocation densities 100X

(R&D 100 Award)

Emcore Discovery

125 system

Sandia Labs & RPI demonstrates an 18% increase in light output

efficiency by modifying heteroepitaxial interface

Transport

Stationary

Six Strategies

Supply


Deploy Alternative

Fuels

Modernize the Grid


Fleet

Demand



Increase Vehicle

Efficiency

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The U.S. Grid The numbers

> 200,000 miles of transmission lines distribute approx. 1 TW of power Over 3,500 utility organizations

Desiderata Reliability Efficiency Security Flexibility to integrate intermittent renewables Two-way flow of information and power Growth to handle growing demand

Challenges Active management is required to balance generation, transmission, and

demand at all times Excursion from ideal operation can be catastrophic

24Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry-reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs

http://www.npr.org/


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Superconducting Wire: From Science to the Grid

Invented single crystal-like flexible templates by the kilometer:

Ion Beam Assisted

Deposition (IBAD)

Rolling Assisted Bi-axially Textured Substrate (RABiTS)

Developed epitaxial buffers:

HTS

IBAD-MgOBuffer

HTS

Buffers

RABiTSTM

Maximize current flow(understand vortex dynamics)

Develop segregation& growth mechanisms(new materials)

H

Js

Modify properties with nanostructures

Understand “quantum effects” in film growth

2 ML2 ML

Columbus, OH

Albany, NY

Long Island, NY

• Two companies are now manufacturing kilometers of superconducting cables based on the IBAD and RABiTS processes

• These are deployed in three demonstration projects in the grid.

1 mm

http://www.superpower-inc.com/

Transport

Stationary

Six Strategies

Supply


Deploy Alternative

Fuels

Modernize the Grid


Fleet

Demand



Increase Vehicle

Efficiency

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Other technologies Natural gas Hydro Solar thermal

(parabolic troughs) Geothermal

WindSolar Photovoltaic (PV)

Concentrating Solar Power

Carbon Capture and Storage

Nuclear Energy

US Gas Supply by Source

33

Unconventional gas sources will grow

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release

US Renewable Generation (GWh)

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Renewables are small, but growing rapidly, especially wind

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release

Renewable Electricity Costs (2009)

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Coal/gas-fired ~ 3-6 cents Nuclear ~ 7 cents

Source: 2009 Renewable Energy Data Book (EERE)


Low Cost Solar Cells: From Fundamental Synthesis Research to Commercialization

Basic research focused on materials-centric aspects of a micro-transfer printing process for single crystalline silicon and other semiconductors, dielectrics and metals

GaAs wafer

AlAs releaselayers

GaAs epi-stacks forsolar microcells

etch in HF

release; transfer print

regrow

EERE Solar America Initiative: Established new materials strategies & manufacturing methods for low-cost, high performance photovoltaic modules

Micro-Contact Printed Solar Cells

Industrial collaborations

John Rogers, Ralph Nuzzo (co-founders)

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DOE SunShot Program

0

2

4

6

8 8

$1.70

$0.80 $0.40

$0.50

$1.88 $0.72

$0.76

$0.40

$0.22 $0.12

$0.10

2004 Syste

ms

Prices

2010 Syste

ms

Prices

Power Electr

onics Cost

Reductions

BOS Improve

mentsBOS S

oft Costs

Reductions

Module Efficie

ncy

Improve

mentsManufactu

ring C

ost

Reductions

$1/W Target

$1/W

Inst

alle

d Sy

stem

s Pric

e ($

/W)

$3.80/W

Power Electronics

Balance of Systems (BOS)

PV Module

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Areas of DOE Research Focus

Materials

High Performance Computing

Non-Medical Biology

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Training the next generation of innovators

http://science.energy.gov/~/media/np/pdf/Accelerating_Innovation_9_01142011.pdf

Survey of 500+ DOE-supported nuclear science PhD’s (1999-2004)1/3 government service or at national research labs1/3 science and technology industries1/3 educate and train the next generation of skilled workers

We must integrate diverse players with diverse roles

Universities Knowledge, people, education, credible voices

National labs Large facilities and programs, multidisciplinary

RD&D For-profit sector

High-risk innovation, take technology to scale Optimize under economics and regulation

Government Consistent policies, precompetitive R&D

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QUESTIONS?/COMMENTS?http://science.energy.gov/s-4http://www.energy.gov/QTR

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DOE-QTR Scope

The DOE-QTR will provide a context and robust framework for the Department’s energy programs, as well as principles by which to establish multiyear programs plans and budgets. It will also offer high-level views of the technical status and potential of various energy technologies.

The primary focus of the DOE-QTR process and document will be on the following: Framing the energy challenges A discussion of the roles of government, industry, national laboratories, and

universities in energy system transformation Summary roadmaps for advancing key energy technologies, systems, and sectors Principles by which the Department can judge the priority of various technology

efforts A discussion of support for demonstration projects The connections of energy technology innovation to energy policy


DOE-QTR Timeline

Nov 2010

PCAST made recommendations for DOE to do QER

3/14 – 4/15

Public comment period for DOE-QTR Framing Document

4/20

First batch of public comments released on project website

Through mid-June

Hold workshops and discussions of each of the Six Strategies

End July/Aug

Submit DOE-QTR to White House for approval

Before Dec 2011

Release DOE-QTR


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DOE-QTR Logic FlowEnergy context

Supply/demand Energy essentials

Energy challenges Oil security US Competitiveness Environmental Impact

Players and RolesPrivate/Gov’tWithin gov’tEcon/Policy/TechAcad/Lab/Private

Technology Assessments

HistoryStatusPotential

Six strategiesDOE portfolio principles

DOE priorities and portfolioBalanced within and across strategies

Program plans and budgets

Technology Roadmaps

MilestonesCostSchedulePerformers


Documents

America’s Energy Challenges