Amendment 99 Warrnambool Planning Scheme - … · Warrnambool Planning Scheme ... and to facilitate the Clinton Baulch Motor Group proposal for ‘car sales and, motor repairs and

A p r i l 2 0 1 6

Amendment C99

Warrnambool Planning Scheme

Expert Witness Statement

Sean Stephens

Managing Partner, Essential Economics Pty Ltd

Contact details

For further details please contact Essential Economics Pty Ltd at one of our offices:

96 Pelham Street Carlton Victoria 3053 Australia PH +61 3 9347 5255 FAX +61 3 9347 5355

Level 26 / 44 Market Street Sydney New South Wales 2000 Australia PH +61 2 9089 8654

EMAIL [email protected] WEB www.essentialeconomics.com

ABN 92 079 850 427

Project Number: 16044

Contents

1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1

2 DETAILS OF THE PROPOSAL ............................................................................................. 3

3 STRATEGIC LAND USE POLICY CONTEXT ........................................................................... 8

4 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW .................................................................................................. 11

5 NET COMMUNITY BENEFIT CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................ 18

6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................... 20

A M E N D M E N T C 9 9 W A R R N A M B O O L P L A N N I N G S C H E M E

E C O N O M I C E V I D E N C E – S E A N S T E P H E N S

E s s e n t i a l E c o n o m i c s P t y L t d

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1 I N T R O D U C T I O N

Professional Details

1.1 My name is Sean Andrew Stephens and I practice as Managing Partner and Senior Economist at Essential Economics Pty Ltd of 96 Pelham Street, Carlton.

1.2 I hold the degree of Economics with Honours from the University of Newcastle. A copy of my CV is attached to this statement.

Area of Expertise

1.1 My area of professional expertise is urban economics and the assessment of economic impacts on local and regional economies associated with urban development projects. An area of particular professional activity is market feasibility and location analysis for retailers, developers and shopping centre owners, and the assessment of economic impacts associated with proposed new or expanded urban developments. I have undertaken economic assessments for both public and private sector clients.

1.1 My opinions expressed herein are, to the context relevant, made by me in reliance upon my above expertise.

1.2 I am a member of the Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association, the Urban Land Institute and the Research Committee of the Property Council of Australia (Victoria).

Instructions

1.3 I have been instructed in this matter by Myers Planning Group, acting on behalf of the Clinton Baulch Motor Group Pty Ltd.

1.4 Clinton Baulch Motor Group is proposing to relocate a car dealership from its current site on the Princes Highway in western Warrnambool to a new site in Warrnambool’s ‘Eastern Activity Precinct’.

1.5 My instructions in this matter are as follows:

(a) To collect Information on the subject site and proposal, as well as review strategic land use reports relevant to the proposed Amendment C99.

(b) To visit the subject site and surrounding region in order to collect updated information regarding on-site characteristics, surrounding land uses and other relevant factors.

(c) To conduct a Market Assessment which identifies the extent of the Commercial 2 Zone and determines whether additional land in the zone is justified based on relevant economic considerations.




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(d) To provide advice in relation to other economic matters of relevance.

(e) To conduct a Net Community Benefit Assessment that identifies the contribution that the proposed Amendment C99 would make to the wider community.

(f) To prepare this Expert Witness Statement.

Preparation

1.6 In preparing this statement I have:

(a) I have been instructed by Myers Planning Group that, as a witness giving evidence (by report, or otherwise) in a proceeding as an expert, I have a duty to assist the Panel and that this duty overrides any obligation that I may have to any party to the proceeding or to any person who is liable for my fee or expenses in this matter;

(b) I have neither received nor accepted any instructions to adopt or reject any particular opinion in preparing this report;

(c) I have made all the enquiries which I believe are desirable and appropriate and that no matters of significance which I regard as relevant have, to my knowledge, been withheld from the Tribunal; and

(d) I have considered the relevant documents disclosed by the parties to the proceeding and the documents listed in this report.




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2 D E TA I L S O F T H E P RO P O SA L

2.1 This section outlines the details of the proposed amendment, including location, site attributes and policy context.

About the Amendment C99

2.2 The proposed Amendment C99 to the Warrnambool Planning Scheme seeks to rezone land at 53-69 Raglan Parade, Warrnambool from the General Residential Zone (GRZ) to the Commercial 2 Zone (CZ2).

2.3 A total of three individual land parcels are subject to the amendment. In total, all three land parcels considered in Amendment C99 comprise a total area of approximately 16,600m2.

2.4 At present, all three sites are individually occupied by motel-style accommodation providers.

2.5 The site at 53-63 Raglan Parade is also subject to a planning permit application for the construction of building and works for car sales and servicing. This planning permit application for 53-63 Raglan Parade is being made on behalf of the Clinton Baulch Motor Group and is the catalyst for the Amendment C99. The site is located at the eastern end of the land considered in the Amendment.

2.6 Clinton Baulch Motor Group is seeking to re-locate their existing Nissan, Kia and used car dealership in western Warrnambool to the proposed site at 53-63 Raglan Parade. This relocation is being sought due to growing demand and the inadequate size of their current dealership, as well as the imminent end of the current lease. I am informed this lease cannot be renewed.

2.7 Note that the existing Jeep, Chrysler and Dodge and Isuzu dealership operated by the Clinton Baulch Group in western Warrnambool is not proposed for relocation as part of Amendment C99 or the planning permit application. This dealership recently underwent a significant redevelopment.

2.8 The total area of 53-63 Raglan Parade proposed for the car dealership and servicing facility is approximately 8,100m2 or slightly less than half the area of approximately 16,600m2 considered in Amendment C99.

2.9 Rezoning to the Commercial 2 Zone is required to support the existing use of the land for motel accommodation, and to facilitate the Clinton Baulch Motor Group proposal for ‘car sales and, motor repairs and servicing’ at 53-63 Raglan Parade.




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Site Location and Context

2.10 The land being considered in Amendment C99 is located on the southern side of the Princes Highway at the eastern entrance to Warrnambool. Raglan Parade forms what can be termed a ‘service lane’ running parallel to the Princes Highway.

2.11 With direct frontage and exposure to the Princes Highway, the site provides excellent visibility and accessibility for prospective customers of the proposed car dealership.

2.12 This is also reflected in the present motel uses on the subject land. All three motels rely heavily on their prominent locations at a ‘gateway’ site to Warrnambool in order to attract customers, including the provision of high-profile signage and orientation towards the street.

2.13 The Princes Highway provides a high capacity and well-used transport link between the subject site and the balance of urban Warrnambool and beyond.

2.14 The subject land is part of what is call the Eastern Activity Centre. A mix of homemaker, showroom (including motor vehicle sales) and retail functions are located with frontage to the Princes Highway at the eastern edge of urban Warrnambool.

2.15 Surrounding land uses to the subject site include:

- The Warrnambool Homemaker Centre to the east

- A Bunnings and associated homemaker retailers to the north-east

- Agricultural land to the north

- Harvey Norman and associated homemaker retailers to the north-west, and

- The Napthine estate and residential areas to the south and south-west.

2.16 An overview of the subject site and locational context is shown in Map 1.

Background to Relocation of Clinton Baulch Group Car Dealership

2.17 I am informed that the proposed relocation of the Clinton Baulch Group Nissan, KIA and used car dealership to the site at 53-63 Raglan Parade is the conclusion of a two-year site identification and selection process.

2.18 The current dealership is located on land which includes multiple tenants who compete for space within the site. Similarly, the current site is unable to accommodate any future business growth. In December 2016, the lease agreement for the current site will expire. Recent photos of the existing dealership are shown over page.

2.19 A new site must be found in order to relocate the existing dealership and continue normal business operations.




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Image 2.1 Existing Nissan, Kia and Used Car Dealership

Image 2.2 Existing Nissan, Kia and Used Car Dealership – Note Shared Tenancies




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2.20 As a result, the Clinton Baulch Motor group have been searching for a new site that would meet the necessary requirements of:

- Highway frontage, including exposure and accessibility to significant volumes of passing traffic , and

- A minimum site size of 8,000m2.

2.21 No suitable commercially zoned sites have been identified which are readily available for development and relocation of the existing car dealership.

2.22 Subsequently, it is my understanding that Warrnambool City Council assisted in the identification of a number of parcels within the Eastern Activity Centre that would be suitable for the development of a new car dealership subject to rezoning and permit approval. The subject site at 53-63 Raglan Parade was one of those locations.

2.23 I have viewed the site and agree that it represents a high-quality location for the successful operation of a new and used car dealership.

2.24 The existing motel (Southern Right Motor Inn) which operates at 53-63 Raglan Parade is an ageing property that no longer meets modern expectations for commercial accommodation. The motel has no intrinsic value to the tourism sector in Warrnambool, as it is located remotely from key attractions.

2.25 The subject site has excellent exposure to the Princes Highway, which is a divided road with two lanes in each direction past the site. Raglan Parade provides a service lane which improves accessibility for passing traffic. Over 80 metres of site frontage is provided to Raglan Parade which is more than sufficient for the dealership to provide a strong sense of ‘presence’ too passing traffic and potential customers.

2.26 Another important factor is that the Eastern Activity Centre is already a well-established regional-level destination for a wide range of retail, commercial and showroom uses. As a result, any car dealership at the subject site will benefit from exposure to existing visitors to the precinct, as well as passing trade.

2.27 The proposed new car dealership will include the following components:

- Car showroom areas

- Office and administration space

- A motor vehicle repairs workshop

- An external display area for up to 80 cars.

2.28 I am told that the relocation of all relevant staff from the current car dealership is also anticipated.




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Map 1 – Subject Site and Eastern Activity Centre

Source: Essential Economics with MapInfo and Nearmap. Warrnambool Eastern Activity Centre Structure Plan (WEACSP)




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3 S T R AT EG I C L A N D U S E P O L I C Y C O N T E X T

3.1 This section of my witness statement considers the strategic land use policy context relevant to Amendment C99, as it relates to my own expertise.

3.2 Detailed town planning issues will be considered by other experts.

State Planning Policy

3.3 In relation to matters of commercial and business development which are relevant to land use planning, I am informed by Clause 17.01 of the State Planning Policy Framework (SPPF). The objective of the clause is:

To encourage development which meet the communities’ needs for retail, entertainment, office and other commercial services and provides net community benefit in relation to accessibility, efficient infrastructure use and the aggregation and sustainability of commercial facilities.

3.4 In my opinion, Clause 17.01 is particularly relevant in the context of the proposed Amendment C99. It is a crucial role of the planning system to facilitate sensible land use outcomes which support and encourage growth and development of business activities over time.

3.5 In this context, the Amendment has been initiated by a well-established business in Warrnambool which is unable to continue business operations at their existing location. The process of initiating the Amendment included engagement with the City of Warrnambool who, as I understand it, recognised from an economic development perspective the importance of identifying a new location for the car dealership.

3.6 It is reasonable to expect that if a new site for the Nissan, KIA and used car dealership is not delivered within the calendar year 2016, that at the very least the Clinton Baulch Motor Group business will experience severe disruption and commercial dis-benefit. At the worst these facilities and services will be entirely lost to the community of Warrnambool and surrounds.

3.7 Such an outcome is quite clearly counter to the intent of Clause 17.01 and the operation of the wider planning system.

3.8 Amendment C99 proposes rezoning the subject land at 53-69 Raglan Parade to the Commercial 2 Zone. The purpose of the C2Z includes:

To encourage commercial areas for offices, appropriate manufacturing and industries, bulky goods retailing, other retail uses and associated business and commercial services.




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3.9 The proposed car dealership at 53-63 Raglan Parade is considered a sub-set of ‘Retail’ under the Land Use Terms applied in the Victorian Planning Provisions. Although the proposed car dealership is ‘permit required’ under the proposed zone, it is my own personal experience in land use planning and development matters that the Commercial 2 Zone is regularly occupied by motor vehicle sales and repairs businesses.

3.10 I note that this includes similar such businesses in Warrnambool, as I discuss later in this statement.

3.11 Car dealerships are also a permit required land use in the suite of industrial zones. Of the industrial zones, the Industrial 3 Zone is most commonly where I note car dealerships and motor vehicle repair businesses locate.

3.12 It is readily apparent to me that an industrial zone is not suitable for the subject land in the context of the surrounding land uses, and strategic policy intent for that part of Warrnambool. I am not aware of any consideration of an industrial zone at the subject site or in the Eastern Activity Centre.

Local Planning Policy

3.13 An important local consideration is the fact that the subject site forms part of the Eastern Activity Centre, which was most recently considered in the Warrnambool Eastern Activity Centre Structure Plan prepared in March 2016.

3.14 The Warrnambool Retail Strategy (2007) originally identified the Eastern Activity Precinct (now referred to as the Eastern Activity Centre) as the secondary retail precinct of Warrnambool. The Strategy explicitly supports the development of additional bulky goods retailing in the precinct over time.

3.15 Likewise, the Retail Strategy advocates (Page 196):

“consolidation and development of the Eastern Activity Precinct, with the addition of other roles and services that complement the City Centre.”

3.16 The Retail Strategy does not simply advocate the growth of bulky goods and associated retailing in the Eastern Activity Centre. Rather, the Strategy supports the growth of a diverse range of other associated activities which do not undermine the role and function of the Warrnambool CBD.

3.17 In my view, the proposed Amendment C99 and application for a car dealership on the site at 53-63 Raglan Parade is entirely consistent with this outcome.

3.18 The recently released Eastern Activity Centre Structure Plan identifies the land subject to Amendment C99 as ‘Bulky Goods/Highway Related Uses’ in the land use plan on Page 23.




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3.19 This classification is a sensible representation of both the current use of the land (highway-oriented commercial accommodation) and any future use of the land in the Commercial 2 Zone.

Summary of Opinion in Relation to Strategic Land Use Policy

3.20 Based on my expertise as an economist with a background in land use planning and development, the proposed Amendment C99 is consistent with all relevant high-level strategic policy objectives.

3.21 In summary, my review of the strategic land use planning context is that Amendment C99 is a sensible and obvious extension to commercially zoned land in the Eastern Activity Centre.




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4 EC O N O M I C OV E RV I E W

4.1 This section outlines a summary of economic issues relevant to consideration of Amendment C99.

4.2 Given the regional service role of the Eastern Activity Centre, I have analysed selected relevant data across a wider region which includes the City of Warrnambool and the surrounding Shire of Moyne. For the purposes of considering the Amendment C99, this combined region is of particular relevance.

4.3 In reality, regular visitation to the subject site and wider Eastern Activity Centre is, and will be, generated from people living in rural areas outside this region which I have analysed.

Population Trends and Forecasts

4.4 The City of Warrnambool (33,630 persons) and Shire of Moyne (16,420 persons) have a combined estimated resident population of 50,040 persons in 2015. This is shown in Table 4.1 and has been prepared with regard to official ABS population data and forecasts prepared by DTPLI (Victoria in Future2015).

4.5 Between 2011 and 2015, the region experienced population growth of +330 persons or 0. 7% per annum.

Table 4.1 Population Trends and Forecasts, 2001 to 2031

2001 2011 2015 2021 2031

Population (No.)

Warrnambool 29,180 32,670 33,780 36,080 40,820

Moyne 15,530 16,170 16,380 17,050 18,200

Total Region 44,710 48,840 50,160 53,130 59,020

Average Annual Growth Rate (%)

Warrnambool 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2%

Moyne 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7%

Total Region 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1%

Average Annual Growth (No.)

Warrnambool 350 280 380 470

Moyne 60 50 110 120

Total Region 410 330 490 590

Source: ABS, DTPLI and Essential Economics

4.6 Over the period 2015 to 2021 the population of the region is forecast to increase by a total of +2,970 persons, representing growth of 490 persons or 1.0% per annum. Further population growth is also expected through to at least 2031 according to current projections.




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4.7 I note that this population growth is also facilitated by strategic land use planning in both Warrnambool and Moyne Shire. For example, areas of future urban growth have been identified on the northern edge of Warrnambool.

4.8 This is a significant rate of population growth in the context of regional Victoria and highlights expectations of an ongoing increase in demand for retail, showroom, trade supplies, and a wide range of other services and facilities.

4.9 The Eastern Activity Centre has an important role to play in meeting this future growth in demand. Including in relation to motor vehicle sales and repairs.

Demographic Profile

4.10 A summary of socio-economic characteristics of residents across the region incorporating the City of Warrnambool and the Shire of Moyne is provided in Table 4.2 including comparisons with the Regional Victorian averages. This table incorporates data from the 2011 ABS Census of Population and Housing.

Table 4.2 Demographic Profile , 2011

Category Warrnambool Moyne Total Region Regional Victoria

Income

Median individual income (annual) $27,920 $27,790 $27,880 $25,740

Variation from Regional Victoria 8.5% 8.0% 8.3% 0.0%

Age Structure

Median Age (years) 38 41 39 41

Family Composition

Couple family with no children 39.3% 41.9% 40.2% 42.2%

Couple family with children 41.5% 44.8% 42.6% 40.4%

Couple family - Total 80.8% 86.6% 82.9% 82.7%

One parent family with children under 15 years 10.1% 6.5% 8.8% 9.1%

One parent family with no children under 15 years 7.7% 5.5% 6.9% 7.0%

One parent family - Total 17.8% 12.0% 15.7% 16.1%

Average household size 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4

Tenure Type (Occupied Private Dwellings)

Owned outright 36.0% 44.7% 38.9% 39.6%

Owned with a mortgage 31.5% 33.6% 32.2% 34.3%

Rented 31.4% 20.7% 27.8% 25.2%

Occupation

Managers & professionals 30.1% 44.7% 35.2% 32.6%

Clerical & sales workers 34.4% 23.5% 30.6% 32.2%

Technicians & trades workers 15.7% 12.8% 14.7% 15.7%

Machinery operators & drivers 6.5% 6.0% 6.3% 7.0%

Labourers & related workers 13.3% 13.1% 13.2% 12.5%

Source: ABS, Demographic Profile of Warrnambool, Basic Demographic Profile, 2011; Essential Economics




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4.11 Key features include the following:

- Residents of both Warrnambool (+8.5%) and Moyne (+8.0%) have a higher median individual income that of the regional Victorian average. This high overall income level suggests a relatively higher financial ability to purchase new and used motor vehicles.

- Warrnambool (41.5%) and Moyne (44.8%) have a higher percentage of families with children than the Regional Victoria average of 40.4%. This family structure will typically require motor vehicles to transport children, and a high-level of access to services and employment.

Car Ownership

4.12 Rates of car use ownership differ between the primarily urbanised City of Warrnambool and the more rural Moyne Shire. In Warrnambool, a higher share of households have one or two motor vehicles relative to the Regional Victoria average. In contrast, households in Moyne tend to have more motor vehicles, with 28.7% having three or more vehicles relative to the average of 19.8% for Regional Victoria.

4.13 In overall terms, Table 4.3 shows that the total region exhibits the higher rates of car ownership which are prevalent in Regional Victoria relative to metropolitan Melbourne. Just 6.1% of households in the region do not have a car, relative to 9.4% of households in metropolitan Melbourne.

Table 4.3 Car Ownership per Dwelling

Cars per Dwelling Warrnambool Moyne Total

Region Regional Victoria

Metropolitan Melbourne

None 7.4% 3.7% 6.1% 6.7% 9.4%

One 37.2% 28.5% 34.3% 34.8% 36.1%

Two 40.1% 39.2% 39.8% 38.7% 38.0%

Three or more 15.2% 28.7% 19.7% 19.8% 16.5%

Source: ABS, Basic Community Profile 2011; Essential Economics

4.14 High rates of car use in the municipalities of Warrnambool and Moyne reflect the relatively low density nature of population and urban development, as well as the lack of a critical mass of population which makes public transport a more viable travel alternative. This is a reality across regional Victoria.

4.15 A further example of the importance of private motor vehicles in meeting the travel needs of residents is reflected in the number of share of people who use a car to travel to work.

4.16 A review of data from the 2011 ABS Census shows that 69.2% of employed residents of the City of Warrnambool travel to work by driving a car, relative to 64.8% of employed people across all of Regional Victoria. Likewise, a 6.6% share of the workforce in




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Warrnambool travel to work as a car passenger, which is well above the Regional Victoria average of 5.4%.

4.17 Between 2006 and 2011, the total number of people across the City of Warrnambool and Shire of Moyne who travelled to work by driving a car increased by a total of approximately +1,960 persons.

4.18 I also note that within the City of Warrnambool between 2006 and 2011, the number of households with a motor vehicle increased as follows:

- 1 motor vehicle (+145 households)

- 2 motor vehicles (+462 households)

- 3 or more motor vehicles (+211 households).

4.19 This demonstrates the direct connection between ongoing population growth in Warrnambool and the surrounding region with increased demand for motor vehicle sales and repairs.

4.20 In my opinion as an economist with expertise in demand evaluation for retailers and other businesses, Warrnambool is likely to experience ongoing growth in the motor vehicle sales and repairs industry for the foreseeable future. This is notwithstanding expectations that demand for public transport and other non-motorised forms of transport (such as cycling) will also occur over time.

Motor Vehicle Retail ing in Warrnambool

4.21 Warrnambool has a thriving motor vehicle retail market, with most major car brands represented, as shown in Table 4.4.

4.22 Demand is driven in general terms by the normal community requirement for motor vehicles for a mix of private and business use that applies anywhere in Australia. However, in the context of Warrnambool demand is particularly influenced by:

- The high rates of car ownership in the surrounding region

- Population and business growth which increases the size of the overall market for new and used vehicle sales and repairs

- The regional service role of Warrnambool which means people from areas across south-west Victoria may purchase vehicles in the City

- High income levels which support demand for new vehicles.

4.23 The Callaghan Motor Group in Warrnambool, a commercial competitor to the Clinton Baulch Group, has recently acquired the former Mitre 10 hardware store site fronting the Princes Highway in western Warrnambool. The site area is approximately 2.1 hectares and will support development of a major expansion to the motor vehicle sales and servicing facilities by this business.




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4.24 In my view, this expansion of the Callaghan Group is a clear demonstration of the broader market demand for improved motor vehicle sales and servicing facilities in the region.

4.25 The Warrnambool Auto Group which operates Warrnambool Mazda, Subaru and Renault has also recently expanded their operation in the Eastern Activity Centre. A new car yard adjacent to the Warrnambool Plaza shopping centre was recently opened opposite their other existing site.

Table 4.4 Warrnambool Major Car Dealerships

Dealership Brands Location Planning Zone

Caramut Road Car Sales Used Cars Carrumut Road C2Z

Clinton Baulch Motor Group Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge,

Isuzu Princes Hwy, West Warrnambool INZ3

Clinton Baulch Motor Group Kia, Nissan Princes Hwy, West Warrnambool INZ3

Warrnambool Toyota Toyota Princes Hwy, West Warrnambool C2Z

Coast Honda Honda Princes Hwy, West Warrnambool INZ3

Warrnambool Hyundai Hyundai Princes Hwy, West Warrnambool INZ3

Warrnambool City Volkswagen Volkswagen Princes Hwy, West Warrnambool INZ3

Norton Ford Ford Princes Hwy, West Warrnambool C2Z

Callaghan Motors Suzuki, Holden,

Mitsubishi, Mercedes-Benz

Warrnambool CBD C1Z

Warrnambool Auto Group Subaru, Renault, Mazda Eastern Activity Centre C2Z

Source: Published sources

Supply of Commercial 2 Land

4.26 It is difficult to provide a highly specific analysis of supply and demand for Commercial 2 Zoned land. The diversity of land uses which are appropriate for location in the Commercial 2 Zone, and that many of these uses are also able to locate in other planning zones, means that a specific assessment of demand is often not practical.

4.27 Previous to the recent planning zone reform process, when the former five Business Zones had their own more specialised land use controls, such analysis was more useful as input to land use policy.

4.28 What interests me most as a land use economist is whether or not the current supply and location of relevant zones are appropriate for accommodating current, and expectations of future, demand for business growth.

4.29 In overall terms, I do not see any evidence that the provision of C2Z in the City of Warrnambool is excessive. On the contrary, the experience of the Clinton Baulch




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Group in seeking to identify appropriate sites to re-locate their existing Nissan, Kia and used car dealership indicates an undersupply of appropriately located and zoned land.

4.30 Although some vacant land in the C2Z is located on the eastern side of Caramut Road, it is quite clear to me that this land is not appropriate for a major new and used car dealership which requires significant volumes of passing traffic.

4.31 Similarly, although some bulky goods tenancies in the Harvey Norman complex in the Eastern Activity Centre are vacant, this is not an appropriate built-form for a car dealership. I expect that over time these bulky goods tenancies will be tenanted as population and retail spending growth occurs in the surrounding region.

4.32 Other bulky goods retailing areas located in the Eastern Activity Centre are effectively at full tenancy based on observations made during a recent field visit.

4.33 A review of the provision of C2Z land in the City of Warrnambool and other large regional cities in Victoria is shown in Table 4.5.

Table 4.5 Comparison of Provision of Commercial 2 Zone

Local Government Population (2015) Area of CZ2 Land Hectares of C2Z

Per 1,000 people

Greater Shepparton 63 370 171ha 2.7ha

Latrobe 73 550 62ha 0.8ha

Mildura 53 020 48ha 0.9ha

Wangaratta 27 070 32ha 1.2ha

Warrnambool 33 640 33ha 1.0ha

Source: Essential Economics, ABS and DTPLI

4.34 This analysis shows no statistical reason to consider that an overprovision of land of C2Z land is present in Warrnambool relative to comparable regional cities of Victoria. The current rate of provision of 1.0 hectare per 1,000 persons in the City of Warrrnambool is well within normal expectations relative to comparable locations, and well below the high provision of 2.7ha per 1,000 people present in Greater Shepparton.

4.35 I note that the increase in land within the C2Z in the City of Warrnambool would increase by just 5% as a result of the proposed Amendment C99. This increase in supply is an appropriate and proportional response to the increased demand for C2Z land associated demonstrated by the relocation efforts of the Clinton Baulch Motor Group.




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Summary of Opinion in Relation to Economic Considerations

4.36 A review of economic matters relevant to Amendment C99 indicates that:

- Population growth is occurring in Warrnambool and the surrounding region which will drive demand for a range of land uses suitable for location in the C2Z for the foreseeable future

- The demographic profile of residents in the region exhibit characteristics that are likely to increase demand for automotive sales and repairs, such as would be facilitated by the proposed Amendment

- High rates of car ownership and the importance of motor vehicles as a form of transport to work highlight the importance of the planning system in ensuring that residents and businesses have access to a full and competitive range of automotive sales and repairs providers

- The high demand for automotive sales and repairs in Warrnambool is being reflected in the business growth and investment being undertaken by a range of car dealerships in the City, including the Clinton Baulch Group who have initiated the Amendment C99 process

- No economic reason is apparent from available data to suggest that the proposed expansion in the C2Z arising from Amendment C99 represents an oversupply, or will undermine the effective operation of the C2Z or activity centres hierarchy in Warrnambool.

- The increase in supply of land in the C2Z associated with Amendment C99 is an appropriate and proportional response to a demonstrated demand for land able to accommodate motor vehicle sales and repairs.




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5 N E T C O M M U N I T Y B E N E F I T CO N S I D E R AT I O N S

5.1 This Chapter of my witness statement considers net community benefit aspects of Amendment C99 relevant to my own expertise.

Investment

5.2 Based on the latest information provided to me by the Clinton Baulch Motor Group, the total project investment for the development of a new Nissan, Kia and used car dealership and associated infrastructure at 53-63 Raglan Parade is approximately $2.7 million (in 2016 dollars).

5.3 Allowing for one full-time construction job year for every $450,000 of construction value (based on ABS National Accounts data), this would represent 6 full-time construction job years.

5.4 In reality, the construction phase would take in the order of 6-months. Thus 12 full-time construction jobs would be created locally during this construction phase for the new dealership.

Permanent Ongoing Jobs

5.5 Without the Amendment C99 proceeding to allow the development of the proposed new car dealership at 53-63 Raglan Parade, the operations of the Clinton Baulch Motor Group will have a significant negative impact. This potentially includes the loss of some, or all, of the 28 positions currently employed at the existing Nissan, Kia and used car dealership site in western Warrnambool which would need to close at the end of the current lease.

5.6 I am informed that the proposed new car dealership at 53-63 Raglan Parade includes the relocation of all 28 positions at the existing dealership. Current business planning also includes an allowance for a small number of additional jobs (say 2 more positions).

5.7 Importantly, the proposed relocation is to a site which provides the opportunity for the Clinton Baulch Group to expand their business over time in response to expectations of growing demand for motor vehicle sales and repairs (see this Statement Chapter 4).

Other Considerations

5.8 The proposed Amendment C99 allows for the continuation of accommodation uses on the subject land. I understand that no objection to the Amendment has been received by the operators of the two motels located west of the proposed new car dealership. These more modern motel operations (relative to the dated Southern Right Motor Inn) can continue to trade successfully at their present location for as long as this represents the ‘highest and best use’ of this land.

5.9 I consider the operation of the existing accommodation providers to be primarily related to the gateway location and highway frontage offered by the subject land,




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rather than any natural affinity or locational connection to the tourist attractions located in Warrnambool.

5.10 In the future, if alternative businesses allowable in the C2Z replace the existing motel operators, this is not a significant economic or strategic land use planning issue. The location within the Eastern Activity Centre which already contains substantial amounts of land in both the C1Z and C2Z, and which is identified in policy as a location for future business growth, means no serious dis-benefits can be identified associated with a change in use over time.

5.11 Significant consumer and business benefits will be realised through the provision of a new and purpose-built facility for the sale and repair of motor vehicles at 53-63 Raglan Parade. Both households and businesses seeking to purchase or service a motor vehicle will benefit from a high quality facility at this location.

5.12 The competitive nature of the motor vehicle sales and repair market in Warrnambool will also be enhanced. I note the recent research of the Productivity Commission (2011) in relation to the importance of the planning system recognising business competition as generating significant consumer benefits.

Warrnambool Homemaker Centre Submission

5.13 I am aware of issues raised in relation to Amendment C99 by the Warrnambool Homemaker Centre in a letter dated 14 December 2015.

5.14 In reviewing the letter, I have not identified any arguments (relevant to my expertise) relating to any potential net community dis-benefits associated with the Amendment C99.




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6 S U M M A RY A N D C O N C LU S I O N S

6.1 Based on my professional experience and review of all relevant issues, my opinion is that:

- The land proposed considered in Amendment C99 represents a natural extension to the C2Z in the Eastern Activity Centre which allows for the continued operation of an important car dealership in the context of Warrnambool, yet does not undermine the ongoing operation of the remaining accommodation providers

- The proposed relocation of the Clinton Baulch Motor Group Nissan, Kia and used car dealership is a reflection of ongoing growth in demand for car sales and repair facilities in Warrnambool, and the reality that continued operation of the dealership at its existing location is impossible

- It is both appropriate and desirable for the planning system to ensure that sufficient and appropriately located land is available to support business growth and development, Amendment C99 is consistent with this outcome

- The implementation of Amendment C99 is consistent with the achievement of a net community benefit in relation to economic and land use planning matters relevant to my own expertise.

6.2 In summary, the proposed Amendment C99 is a sensible and economically important opportunity to ensure that an existing business (Clinton Baulch Motor Group) can continue operating in its current form within Warrnambool, while also delivering a planning framework which supports appropriate business growth and development in the Eastern Activity Centre.

Declaration

I have made all the inquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and no matters of significance that I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been withheld.

Sean Stephens Managing Partner and Senior Economist Essential Economics Pty Ltd 18 April 2016




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A T T A C H M E N T :

S e a n S t e p h e n s C V

CURRICULUM VITAE

Sean Stephens

B. Econ (Honours)

Managing Partner and

Senior Economist

[email protected]

Introduction Sean is Managing Partner at Essential Economics. He has over fifteen years’ experience in undertaking economic assessments associated with urban development projects and regional economic development. Sean has particular expertise in undertaking market assessments, location analysis and impact assessments for retail and commercial developments, and brings a detailed knowledge of the Australian property market to projects. Sean is a regular contributor to industry and media commentary. He also regularly acts as an expert witness in planning and legal forums nationally, and is also often engaged in a client advocacy role.

Disciplines, Skills, Qualifications

Sean has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of Newcastle. He is on the Property Council of Australia (Victoria) Research Committee and is a member of the Victorian Planning and Environmental Law Association (VPELA) and Urban Land Institute (ULI). Sean is a property economist with experience working on a diverse range of projects across Australia for high profile clients. He has worked on market feasibility assessments for major retail developments and has also provided strategic property advice to property owners, industry and government agencies including Costco, Defence Housing Australia, Coles Group, Australia Post, Bunnings, Mirvac, David Jones, Westfield, ALDI, AMP, Woolworths, Metcash/IGA, Villawood Properties, Leightons Properties and Lend Lease. Recent projects include an assessment of the economic benefits of Main Street retailing. Sean is also heavily involved in retail and activity centre planning nationally for both the public and private sectors.

Academic Qualifications

Bachelor of Economics (Honours) University of Newcastle, 1999

Present positions Managing Partner and Senior Economist, Essential Economics Pty Ltd

Past positions Consultant, JHD Advisors, 2000 - 2003

CURRICULUM VITAE (Sean Stephens – continued)

Relevant Experience

Retail and Commercial Feasibility and Location Assessments

Costco national store roll out (Ongoing)

Bunnings national store roll out (Ongoing)

Chatswood Post Office Redevelopment Market Assessment, for Australia Post

Rasmussen Retail Assessment, for Lancini Property and Development

Belmont Park Racecourse Development Peer Review, for Golden River Developments

Aston Neighbourhood Centre Market Assessment, for Peet Limited

Rosella Site Market Assessment, for Lasky Raizon Group

Morwell East Commercial Development Market Assessment, for SM Urban

Leopold Town Centre Market Assessment, for Lascorp

Athelstone Liquor Advice, for Coles Group

Townsville Retail Assessment, for Austexx

Gateway Site Darwin Preliminary Market Assessment, for TMG Developments

Lyndhurst Activity Centre Market Assessment, for Villawood Properties

Cardinia Road Activity Centre Market Assessment, for VicUrban

Homemaker Retail Assessment (Melbourne), for Leightons Properties

Wyong Retail Assessments, for Henry Kendall Group

Shepparton Neighbourhood Centre Market Assessment, for Copulos Group

Bairnsdale Market Assessment, for Dahlsens

Park Street Port Macquarie Economic Impact Assessment, for Mirvac

Deer Park- Robinsons Road Shopping Centre Assessment, for Glen Alpine Properties

Shepparton North Neighbourhood Centre Assessment, for Fairley’s IGA

Mudgee Retail Assessment, for private client

Shepparton Drive-In Site Retail Assessment, for private client

Outlet Centre National Roll Out Strategy, for private client

Rowville ALDI Economic Impact Assessment, for Gearon Group

Canberra Airport Retail Development Economic Impact Assessment, for Canberra International Airport

Patterson Lakes Market Assessment, for Knowles Group

Ringwood Transit City - Retail Assessment, for VicUrban

Peninsula Lifestyle Centre Market Assessment, for Leightons Property

Berowra Supermarket Assessment, for Ritchies IGA

Pakington Street Supermarket Assessment, for Metcash

Cardinia Lakes Retail Floorspace Assessment, for Cardinia Shire Council

Epping North Project Activity Centre Analysis, for AV Jennings

Tarneit Convenience Centre Retail Assessment, for Wilbow Corporation

Essendon Airport Retail and Outlet Centre Development Retail Needs and Economic Impact Assessment, for Essendon Airport Limited

Rocklea Home Centre Economic Impact Assessment, for private client


Mernda Precinct Activity Centre Commercial Assessment, for Metricon Developments

Sneydes Road Convenience Activity Centre Commercial Assessment, for Central Equity

Retail Economic Assessment for Proposed ALDI Store at Corio, ALDI Stores

Hastings Homemaker Centre Economic Impact Assessment, for private client

Former Pentridge Prison Site Retail Assessment, for Pentridge Village

Yarra Glen Shopping Centre Economic Impact Assessment, for private client

Thomastown Supa Centre Trade Area Analysis, for Life Development Group

Essendon Airport Retail Development Assessment of Catchment Spending Potential, for Essendon Airport Pty Ltd

Economic Assessments and Modelling

PFOS Control Measures Cost-Benefit Analysis, for Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities (DSEWPaC)

Essendon Football Club Re-location Options Analysis, Essendon Football Club

Arrownet Trademark Review, for Arrow Research Corporation

ACT Waste Pricing Strategy, for ACT NOWaste

Contaminated Soils Market Review, for EPA Victoria

Economic and Social Benefits Assessment, Melbourne Racing Club

Measuring Economic Benefit of Dwelling Construction and Maintenance Programs of DHA, for Defence Housing Australia

Waste and Resource Management Economic and Spatial Analysis, for Sustainability Victoria

Morwell East Industrial Land Analysis, for SM Urban

Devonport Economic Baseline Analysis, for City of Devonport

Economic Benefits of Shepparton Show Me, for City of Greater Shepparton

Strategic Planning for Town Centres and Activity Centres

Hobsons Bay Activity Centres Strategy, for Hobsons Bay City Council

The Parade Retail Strategy, for the City of Norwood, Payneham and St Peters

Retail Benchmarking and Land Use Planning, for Environment and Sustainable Development Directorate ACT Government

Noble Park Retail and Commercial Analysis, for DPCD and City of Greater Dandenong

Springvale Retail and Commercial Analysis, for DPCD and City of Greater Dandenong

City of Swan Retail Needs Assessment, for City of Swan

Melbourne CBD Retail Review, for City of Melbourne

Boroondara Activity Centres Analysis, for City of Boroondara

Maldon Town Centre Review, for Mount Alexander Shire


Benalla CBD Development Strategy, for Benalla Rural City Council

Devonport Retail Study, for City of Devonport

Activity Centres Review Technical Report-Planning Strategy for Greater Adelaide, for Planning SA

Cardinia Small Towns Project, for Shire of Cardinia

Maldon Economic Futures Project, for Mt Alexander Shire

Central West Structure Plan, for Central West Business Park and City of Maribyrnong

Wyndham Activity Centres Strategy, for City of Wyndham

Kew Junction Structure Plan, for City of Boroondara

Bayside Major Activity Centre Advice, for City of Bayside

Glenferrie Structure Plan, for City of Boroondara

Geelong Retail Strategy, for City of Greater Geelong

Torquay and Jan Juc Retail Review Retail Assessment, for Surf Coast Shire

Croydon Structure Plan - Retail and Commercial Assessment, City of Maroondah

City of Bayside Major Activity Centres Project, for City of Bayside

Documents

Amendment 99 Warrnambool Planning Scheme - … · Warrnambool Planning Scheme ... and to facilitate the Clinton Baulch Motor Group proposal for ‘car sales and, motor repairs and