AM GOV 2010AM GOV 2010

Joseph A. Losco Joseph A. Losco

Ralph E. BakerRalph E. Baker

PUBLIC OPINIONPUBLIC OPINION

Chapter 6Chapter 6

As You ReadAs You Read

What is public opinion and why is it What is public opinion and why is it important?important?

How is opinion best measured and how do we How is opinion best measured and how do we know these measures are reliable?know these measures are reliable?

What are some of the most basic features of What are some of the most basic features of American public opinion today?American public opinion today?

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UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION

IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN POLITICSPOLITICS

American political culture reflects respect for American political culture reflects respect for the political values of liberty, individualism, the political values of liberty, individualism, equality of opportunity, and private property.equality of opportunity, and private property.

These values support a limited government These values support a limited government role in meeting individual needs. role in meeting individual needs.

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UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION

IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN POLITICSPOLITICS

Early political leaders were suspicious of Early political leaders were suspicious of popular attitudes and passions, but were not popular attitudes and passions, but were not indifferent to them.indifferent to them. Before scientific polling, political leaders gauged Before scientific polling, political leaders gauged

popular support from newspaper reports and popular support from newspaper reports and editorials.editorials.

Informal straw polls sampling public opinion Informal straw polls sampling public opinion became popular at the turn of the twentieth century.became popular at the turn of the twentieth century.

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UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION

IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN POLITICSPOLITICS

In 1936, George Gallup issued the first In 1936, George Gallup issued the first scientifically designed presidential election scientifically designed presidential election poll based on marketing research techniques.poll based on marketing research techniques.

Today, politicians use polling and survey Today, politicians use polling and survey research to gauge public opinion, shape policy, research to gauge public opinion, shape policy, and manipulate political attitudes and and manipulate political attitudes and behaviors.behaviors.

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HOW POLITICAL OPINIONS HOW POLITICAL OPINIONS ARE FORMED ARE FORMED

We form many of the attitudes, values, and We form many of the attitudes, values, and beliefs that shape our opinions through a beliefs that shape our opinions through a process called political socialization.process called political socialization. Political values form early in lifePolitical values form early in life Political outlook and behavior can change as we Political outlook and behavior can change as we

ageage Some age differences in politics are result of life-Some age differences in politics are result of life-

cycle effects – changes in our life circumstancescycle effects – changes in our life circumstances Other differences, known as generational effects, Other differences, known as generational effects,

result from unique issues and events confronting result from unique issues and events confronting each generationeach generation

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HOW POLITICAL OPINIONS HOW POLITICAL OPINIONS ARE FORMED ARE FORMED

Agents of political socialization include the Agents of political socialization include the family, educational institutions, religious family, educational institutions, religious institutions, voluntary associations, and the institutions, voluntary associations, and the media.media.

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GROUP DIFFERENCES IN GROUP DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL OPINIONS POLITICAL OPINIONS

Race, ethnicity, gender, and geographical Race, ethnicity, gender, and geographical location can all shape a person’s political location can all shape a person’s political opinions.opinions.

A significant gender gap exists in both voting A significant gender gap exists in both voting behavior and party preference.behavior and party preference. Women more likely than men to support social Women more likely than men to support social

programs, oppose policies involving force or programs, oppose policies involving force or aggression, and vote Democraticaggression, and vote Democratic

Attitudes may stem from early differences in Attitudes may stem from early differences in socializationsocialization

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GROUP DIFFERENCES IN GROUP DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL OPINIONS POLITICAL OPINIONS

Broad regional differences in political Broad regional differences in political opinions exist in the United States.opinions exist in the United States. Southerners tend to be more conservative and Southerners tend to be more conservative and

more supportive of the military than those in the more supportive of the military than those in the Northeast or on the West Coast.Northeast or on the West Coast.

In recent years, southern states have become more In recent years, southern states have become more conservative and Republican, while northeastern conservative and Republican, while northeastern states have become more liberal and Democratic.states have become more liberal and Democratic.

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MEASURING PUBLIC MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION OPINION

Polls measure several dimensions of public Polls measure several dimensions of public opinion, including:opinion, including: Direction: an individual’s preference with respect to a Direction: an individual’s preference with respect to a

particular issueparticular issue Salience: the importance attached to an issue or topic Salience: the importance attached to an issue or topic Intensity: the strength with which a particular Intensity: the strength with which a particular

preference is held preference is held Stability: the consistency with which a particular Stability: the consistency with which a particular

preference is maintained over timepreference is maintained over time Informational support: the level of information an Informational support: the level of information an

individual has regarding an issueindividual has regarding an issue

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MEASURING PUBLIC MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION OPINION

Polls take several popular forms.Polls take several popular forms. Benchmark surveys: measure the public’s knowledge Benchmark surveys: measure the public’s knowledge

and opinion of a candidate at a specific point in time and opinion of a candidate at a specific point in time Trial heat surveys: ask respondents which of two Trial heat surveys: ask respondents which of two

specific candidates they would vote forspecific candidates they would vote for Tracking polls: supply current information by polling Tracking polls: supply current information by polling

on a daily basison a daily basis Push polls: a campaign provides voters with negative Push polls: a campaign provides voters with negative

information about its opponent, then asks them information about its opponent, then asks them questions about that candidatequestions about that candidate

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POLLING TECHNIQUES POLLING TECHNIQUES

Scientific polls use the mathematical laws of Scientific polls use the mathematical laws of probability to ensure accuracy.probability to ensure accuracy. Polls survey a random sample of the population to Polls survey a random sample of the population to

approximate the views of the whole groupapproximate the views of the whole group Simple random sampling gives everyone in a population an Simple random sampling gives everyone in a population an

equal chance of being interviewedequal chance of being interviewed Because the United States is so large, national pollsters use Because the United States is so large, national pollsters use

systematic sampling to obtain a more accurate samplesystematic sampling to obtain a more accurate sample Sampling error refers to a poll’s degree of accuracy, Sampling error refers to a poll’s degree of accuracy,

expressed as a percentage.expressed as a percentage. Polls that survey fewer individuals have a higher Polls that survey fewer individuals have a higher

sampling error.sampling error.

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POLLING TECHNIQUES POLLING TECHNIQUES

Changing technology presents a challenge for Changing technology presents a challenge for modern pollsters.modern pollsters. Inexpensive Internet polling can be done with Web Inexpensive Internet polling can be done with Web

access and simple softwareaccess and simple software Many people do not have land lines and do not list Many people do not have land lines and do not list

their cell phone numberstheir cell phone numbers Call screening technology allows individuals to avoid Call screening technology allows individuals to avoid

pollsterspollsters Polls should avoid asking leading questions, Polls should avoid asking leading questions,

which are phrased to produce a predetermined which are phrased to produce a predetermined response. Question order is also important.response. Question order is also important.

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THE CONTENT OF THE CONTENT OF AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION Education is the strongest single predictor of political Education is the strongest single predictor of political

knowledge.knowledge. Americans are better informed about institutions and Americans are better informed about institutions and

processes of government than they are about people processes of government than they are about people and players in the political arena.and players in the political arena.

Americans are generally poorly informed about Americans are generally poorly informed about global affairs.global affairs.

Americans’ trust and confidence in government has Americans’ trust and confidence in government has fallen sharply since the late 1960s.fallen sharply since the late 1960s.

Americans’ belief in the effectiveness of political Americans’ belief in the effectiveness of political participation has also declined.participation has also declined.

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THE CONTENT OF THE CONTENT OF AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION The dominant political ideologies in the United The dominant political ideologies in the United

States are liberalism and conservatism.States are liberalism and conservatism. Liberalism supports a larger role for government in Liberalism supports a larger role for government in

protecting and ensuring equal opportunity and civil protecting and ensuring equal opportunity and civil libertiesliberties

Conservatism supports a limited role for government Conservatism supports a limited role for government in the economy and faith in free market mechanismsin the economy and faith in free market mechanisms

Americans traditionally have been pragmatic Americans traditionally have been pragmatic people, more interested in solving problems than people, more interested in solving problems than in ideology.in ideology.

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PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC POLICY

Government policies sometimes do not reflect Government policies sometimes do not reflect public opinion.public opinion. Voters often do not have clear preferences on some Voters often do not have clear preferences on some

issuesissues Majority opinion may support policies detrimental to Majority opinion may support policies detrimental to

the rights of minoritiesthe rights of minorities Studies reveal a high degree of correspondence Studies reveal a high degree of correspondence

between public opinion and public policy.between public opinion and public policy. Substantial changes in opinion are almost always Substantial changes in opinion are almost always

followed by policy change in the same direction.followed by policy change in the same direction.

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PUBLIC OPINION AND CIVIC PUBLIC OPINION AND CIVIC ENGAGEMENT TODAY ENGAGEMENT TODAY

The role that public opinion should play in a The role that public opinion should play in a democracy remains as highly controversial today democracy remains as highly controversial today as it was when the Framers penned our as it was when the Framers penned our Constitution.Constitution.

When public opinion is based on low levels of When public opinion is based on low levels of information, it is sometimes prone to information, it is sometimes prone to manipulation.manipulation.

Some political scientists believe that public policy Some political scientists believe that public policy is best left in the hands of better informed elites.is best left in the hands of better informed elites.

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Party Affiliation of Various Party Affiliation of Various Religious GroupsReligious Groups

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Gender Differences in Political Gender Differences in Political OpinionsOpinions

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Variation in Political Culture Variation in Political Culture Among the StatesAmong the States

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Political Knowledge – Then and NowPolitical Knowledge – Then and Now

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Confidence in U.S. InstitutionsConfidence in U.S. Institutions

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Can You Trust the Government to Can You Trust the Government to Do the Right Thing?Do the Right Thing?

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Do You Believe You Can Affect Do You Believe You Can Affect Political Change?Political Change?

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Public Tolerances for Advocates of Public Tolerances for Advocates of Unpopular PositionsUnpopular Positions

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A Two-Dimensional View of A Two-Dimensional View of IdeologyIdeology

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First 100 Days Presidential First 100 Days Presidential ApprovalApproval

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What Americans BelieveWhat Americans Believe

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Hot or Not?Hot or Not?

Should political leaders allow Should political leaders allow poll results to influence their poll results to influence their decisions?decisions?

30

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Hot or Not?Hot or Not?

Should pollsters be prohibited Should pollsters be prohibited from making unsolicited calls to from making unsolicited calls to your cell phone?your cell phone?

31

Get InvolvedGet Involved

Conduct an opinion poll of students in your class Conduct an opinion poll of students in your class on an issue confronting your campus. First, try on an issue confronting your campus. First, try surveying a randomized selection by using a table surveying a randomized selection by using a table of random numbers found in most statistics texts. of random numbers found in most statistics texts. Then, check the results by asking the entire class. Then, check the results by asking the entire class. (The larger the class, the better.) How closely does (The larger the class, the better.) How closely does the sample track the results of the class as a whole? the sample track the results of the class as a whole? Be sure to pretest any questions to remove bias or Be sure to pretest any questions to remove bias or ambiguity before you begin.ambiguity before you begin.

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Get InvolvedGet Involved

Compare survey results on the same topic from a Compare survey results on the same topic from a variety of sources; for example, presidential variety of sources; for example, presidential approval ratings. Select a sample of three or four approval ratings. Select a sample of three or four national polls from such sources as the national polls from such sources as the New York New York TimesTimes/CBS News, the /CBS News, the Washington PostWashington Post/ABC News, /ABC News, USA TodayUSA Today/Gallup. Keep track of the differences in /Gallup. Keep track of the differences in percentages reported and try to account for such percentages reported and try to account for such differences by examining the number of persons differences by examining the number of persons sampled, the time period in which the poll was sampled, the time period in which the poll was executed, and the wording and context of the executed, and the wording and context of the questions asked. questions asked.

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For ReviewFor Review

What is public opinion and why is it What is public opinion and why is it important?important?

Public opinion refers to those opinions held Public opinion refers to those opinions held by private persons that governments find it by private persons that governments find it prudent to heed. In a democracy, public prudent to heed. In a democracy, public opinion gives elected officials a sense of what opinion gives elected officials a sense of what citizens want and what they are willing to citizens want and what they are willing to accept.accept.

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For ReviewFor Review

How is opinion best measured and how do How is opinion best measured and how do we know these measures are reliable?we know these measures are reliable?

Opinion is best measured by scientific surveys Opinion is best measured by scientific surveys using random samples in which every member using random samples in which every member of the population has a relatively equal of the population has a relatively equal probability of being selected for interview. probability of being selected for interview. The reliability of surveys depends on how well The reliability of surveys depends on how well the sample is drawn and the quality of the the sample is drawn and the quality of the questions.questions.

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For ReviewFor Review

What are some of the most basic features of What are some of the most basic features of American public opinion today?American public opinion today?

Americans are not very trusting of their Americans are not very trusting of their government and have lost confidence in government and have lost confidence in elected leaders and institutions. Most consider elected leaders and institutions. Most consider themselves neither too liberal nor too themselves neither too liberal nor too conservative, and knowledge about politics is conservative, and knowledge about politics is lower than many political theorists would lower than many political theorists would desire. desire.

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