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ALTERNATIVE GLOBAL
SCENARIOSDOOM
OR BOOM?
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Hardin Tibbs
Global Scenario Framework
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Hardin Tibbs
Global Scenario Framework1997
Tuesday, August 20, 13
2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe
Hardin Tibbs
Global Scenario Framework1997
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Increasing Instability
2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe
Hardin Tibbs
Global Scenario Framework1997
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Increasing Instability
2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe
Hardin Tibbs
Global Scenario Framework
GlobalCollapse
CrisisBusiness as Usual
1997
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Increasing Instability
2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe
Hardin Tibbs
Global Scenario Framework
GlobalCollapse
CrisisBusiness as Usual
Voluntary orSpontaneousTransformation Post-
Physical GrowthEconomy
?
1997
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Increasing Instability
2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe
Hardin Tibbs
Global Scenario Framework
?GlobalCollapse
CrisisBusiness as Usual
Voluntary orSpontaneousTransformation Post-
Physical GrowthEconomy
?
1997
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Increasing Instability
2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe
Hardin Tibbs
Global Scenario Framework
?GlobalCollapse
CrisisBusiness as Usual
Voluntary orSpontaneousTransformation Post-
Physical GrowthEconomy
?
1997
Tuesday, August 20, 13
8,000 B.C. 2100Tuesday, August 20, 13
Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100
Demand
1750Tuesday, August 20, 13
Supply
Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100
Demand
1750Tuesday, August 20, 13
2012
Supply
Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100
Demand
1750Tuesday, August 20, 13
2012
Supply
Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100TRANSFORM ?
Demand
1750Tuesday, August 20, 13
Tuesday, August 20, 13
by 2050, if all 9 billion people on earth live at the same level of resource consumption as
you and I...
Tuesday, August 20, 13
by 2050, if all 9 billion people on earth live at the same level of resource consumption as
you and I...
it will require 3 to 4 planet earths to support them
Tuesday, August 20, 13
An Alternative Scenario
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
An Alternative Scenario
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.
An Alternative Scenario
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.
An Alternative Scenario
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.
Also known as The Sixth Wave theory
An Alternative Scenario
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.
Also known as The Sixth Wave theory http://www.wired.com/business/2011/06/sixth-wave-of-innovation/
An Alternative Scenario
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.
Also known as The Sixth Wave theory http://www.wired.com/business/2011/06/sixth-wave-of-innovation/ http://sixthwave.org
An Alternative Scenario
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.
Also known as The Sixth Wave theory http://www.wired.com/business/2011/06/sixth-wave-of-innovation/ http://sixthwave.org
An Alternative Scenario
Tuesday, August 20, 13
ProfessorCarlota Perez
Tuesday, August 20, 13
ProfessorCarlota Perez
REQUIRED READING
Tuesday, August 20, 13
ProfessorCarlota Perez
REQUIRED READING
we don’t need to transform
Tuesday, August 20, 13
ProfessorCarlota Perez
REQUIRED READING
we don’t need to transform
but we do need to transition
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Global Long Wave Surge Theory
Tuesday, August 20, 13
The Key ideas:
Global Long Wave Surge Theory
Tuesday, August 20, 13
The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society.
Global Long Wave Surge Theory
Tuesday, August 20, 13
The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society. Each new era has been facilitated by enabling regulation, policies for widening the market and insuring social stability.
Global Long Wave Surge Theory
Tuesday, August 20, 13
The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society. Each new era has been facilitated by enabling regulation, policies for widening the market and insuring social stability.We are at the beginning of a period of deployment of new technologies and lifestyles which will radically change the world we live in.
Global Long Wave Surge Theory
Tuesday, August 20, 13
The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society. Each new era has been facilitated by enabling regulation, policies for widening the market and insuring social stability.We are at the beginning of a period of deployment of new technologies and lifestyles which will radically change the world we live in.
Global Long Wave Surge Theory
Tuesday, August 20, 13
The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society. Each new era has been facilitated by enabling regulation, policies for widening the market and insuring social stability.We are at the beginning of a period of deployment of new technologies and lifestyles which will radically change the world we live in.
This is never a smooth process.
Global Long Wave Surge Theory
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Source: Perez, 2009
Five Great Surges of Development in 240 Years
Asia?
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Source: Perez, 2009
Five Great Surges of Development in 240 Years
Asia?
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Each Great Surge Consists of Two Periods
Source: Perez, 2009Tuesday, August 20, 13
Each Great Surge Consists of Two Periods
Source: Perez, 2009Tuesday, August 20, 13
Lessons From Long Wave Trends
Source: Perez, 2009
Tuesday, August 20, 13
An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion
Lessons From Long Wave Trends
Source: Perez, 2009
Tuesday, August 20, 13
An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion
Lessons From Long Wave Trends
Source: Perez, 2009
Tuesday, August 20, 13
An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion
Redesign of financial architecture
Lessons From Long Wave Trends
Source: Perez, 2009
Tuesday, August 20, 13
An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion
Redesign of financial architecture
Lessons From Long Wave Trends
Source: Perez, 2009
Tuesday, August 20, 13
An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion
Redesign of financial architecture
Private, state and civil organizations as drivers and innovators... enable structural shift
Lessons From Long Wave Trends
Source: Perez, 2009
Tuesday, August 20, 13
An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion
Redesign of financial architecture
Private, state and civil organizations as drivers and innovators... enable structural shift
Lessons From Long Wave Trends
Source: Perez, 2009
Tuesday, August 20, 13
An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion
Redesign of financial architecture
Private, state and civil organizations as drivers and innovators... enable structural shift
New plateau of sustainable global/local lifestyles
Lessons From Long Wave Trends
Source: Perez, 2009
Tuesday, August 20, 13
“My next big project is brakes”Tuesday, August 20, 13
“My next big project is brakes”
we innovatedour way into this
Tuesday, August 20, 13
“My next big project is brakes”
we innovatedour way into this
we can innovate our way out of it
Tuesday, August 20, 13
Surge Change
Tuesday, August 20, 13
A Golden Age of Innovation
Surge Change
Tuesday, August 20, 13