ALLIE BAGNALLDANIEL BELLEFLEUR

MARISSA MOMMAERTSEMILY PLAGMAN

Evaluation of the U.S. Government Millennium Challenge Corporation

“Investing In People” Indicators

Objectives & Recommendations

Evaluate existing IIP indicators• Public Expenditure on Health: keep with supplemental

data

• Immunization Rates: keep

• Public Expenditure on Primary Education: keep & amend

• Girl’s Primary Education Rate: keep & amend

• Natural Resources Management: keep, make Child Mortality a main indicator

Identify new indicators • Body Mass Index

• Investment in Infrastructure (Roads/Nighttime Lights)

Evaluation Criteria

MCC’s 7 evaluation criteria

2 additional criteria: • Concept Validity • Equity

Common Data Issues

Lack consistent collection methodologiesIncentives for false reporting or discriminationNot comparable over timeMissing across countries and/or yearsUnclear processes for smoothing dataInterpreted differently across groupsAggregate statistics can mask inequities

1. Public Expenditure on Health

Strengths Country ownership, flexibilityBroad, input measure

Weaknesses Data concerns, incentives for false reportingMay not result in output

Recommendation Keep, but use with output indicators child mortality and

BMI; also use supplemental information

2. Immunization Rates

Strengths Proven investment by cost-benefit analysisReduces child mortality and unnecessary sufferingLinked to policy and economic growth

Weaknesses Equity: rural vs. urbanGlobal Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization

Recommendation • Keep

3. Public Expenditure on Primary Education

Strengths• Data-quality criteria

Weaknesses• Lack of strong link to economic growth

• Concept validity

Recommendation• Keep & adjust: add teacher training/student-to-teacher

ratio/repetition rates

4. Girls’ Primary Education Completion Rate

Strengths• Data-quality criteria

• Strong link to economic growth

• Policy-linked

Weaknesses• Concept validity

Recommendation• Combine with girls’ secondary education enrollment

5a. Natural Resource Management: Eco-Region Protection

Strengths Promotes protection of natural environment

Weaknesses Dependent on GIS, lacking on-the-ground data Inequitable across countries Data are continuously changing

Recommendation• Keep

5b. Natural Resource Management: Water and Sanitation

Strengths Improves health of beneficiariesBenefits most vulnerable populations Policy linked

Weaknesses Difficult to define causality Inequitable across countries

Recommendation • Keep

5c. Natural Resource Management: Child Mortality

Strengths Overall output measureMany policy links

Weaknesses Strongly correlated with other IIP indicators

Recommendation • Upgrade to stand-alone indicator

Potential New Indicators: Body Mass Index

StrengthsMay be tailored to focus on women or children Simple data collection

Weaknesses BMI only useful at extremes Malnutrition not always top policy priority

Recommendation • Use

Potential New Indicator: Infrastructure (Roads)

Strengths Meets all MCC data criteriaCreates access to services and economic growthPolicy-linked

Weaknesses Income and cross-country biasesCausality

Potential New Indicators: Infrastructure (Nighttime Lights)

Strengths Insight into poverty distribution Equity

Weaknesses Improved daytime/household light imageryDisaggregation difficult

Recommendation • Use

Other Potential New Indicators

Occupational Training and Non-formal Education

Presence and Makeup of Social Safety Nets

Additional indicator to measure a government’s commitment to women’s empowerment (Ruling Justly)

Recommendations: Indicator Basket

Public Expenditure on Health Consider supplemental data when possible

Immunization RatesPublic Expenditure on Primary Education

Repetition rates, trained teachersGirls’ Education

Primary Completion & Secondary EnrollmentNatural Resource ManagementChild MortalityBody Mass Index Investment in Infrastructure

Roads Nighttime lights

Thanks! Questions?

Daniel Allie Emily Marissa