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FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 28, 2019 ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DIMS QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; DEM PRIMARY STAYS STABLE WITH BIDEN HOLDING THE LEAD If the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters say that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38 percent would vote for President Trump. Matchups against other top Democrats show: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 39 percent; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 40 percent; California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 40 percent; South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President Trump is stuck between 38 and 40 percent of the vote. These low numbers may partly be explained by a lack of support among white women, a key voting bloc that voted for Trump in the 2016 election. Today, white women go for the Democratic candidate by double digits in every scenario. Though it is a long 14 months until Election Day, Trump’s vulnerability among this important voting group does not bode well for him. “In hypothetical matchups between President Trump and the top five Democratic presidential candidates, one key number is 40,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow. “It’s the ceiling of support for Trump, no matter the candidate. It hovers close to his job approval rating, which has stayed in a tight range since being elected.” Voters say 56 38 percent that they disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, compared to the 54 40 percent disapproval he received a month ago. The Economy For the first time since President Trump was elected, more voters say that the national economy is getting worse than getting better, with 37 percent saying it is getting worse, 31 percent saying it is getting better, and 30 percent saying it is staying the same. This compares to a June 11, 2019 poll in which 23 percent of voters said that the national economy is getting worse, 39 percent said it is getting better, and 37 percent said it is staying the same. When asked to rate the state of the nation’s economy, 61 percent of voters say that it is excellent or good, while 37 percent say that it is not so good or poor. These numbers, while still clearly positive on the economy, are the lowest excellent/good economy numbers found by the Quinnipiac University Poll since April Mary Snow, Polling Analyst (203) 506-8202 Doug Schwartz, Director (203) 582-5201

ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

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Page 1: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 28, 2019

ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DIMS

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;

DEM PRIMARY STAYS STABLE WITH BIDEN HOLDING THE LEAD

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters say that they would vote for

former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38 percent would vote for President Trump. Matchups against

other top Democrats show:

• Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 – 39 percent;

• Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 – 40 percent;

• California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 – 40 percent;

• South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.

Looking at all of the matchups, President Trump is stuck between 38 and 40 percent of the vote. These

low numbers may partly be explained by a lack of support among white women, a key voting bloc that voted for

Trump in the 2016 election. Today, white women go for the Democratic candidate by double digits in every

scenario. Though it is a long 14 months until Election Day, Trump’s vulnerability among this important voting

group does not bode well for him.

“In hypothetical matchups between President Trump and the top five Democratic presidential

candidates, one key number is 40,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow. “It’s the ceiling of

support for Trump, no matter the candidate. It hovers close to his job approval rating, which has stayed in a

tight range since being elected.”

Voters say 56 – 38 percent that they disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as

president, compared to the 54 – 40 percent disapproval he received a month ago.

The Economy

For the first time since President Trump was elected, more voters say that the national economy is

getting worse than getting better, with 37 percent saying it is getting worse, 31 percent saying it is getting better,

and 30 percent saying it is staying the same. This compares to a June 11, 2019 poll in which 23 percent of

voters said that the national economy is getting worse, 39 percent said it is getting better, and 37 percent said it

is staying the same.

When asked to rate the state of the nation’s economy, 61 percent of voters say that it is excellent or

good, while 37 percent say that it is not so good or poor. These numbers, while still clearly positive on the

economy, are the lowest excellent/good economy numbers found by the Quinnipiac University Poll since April

Mary Snow, Polling Analyst

(203) 506-8202

Doug Schwartz, Director

(203) 582-5201

Page 2: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

2

2018. Voters also say that President Trump’s policies are hurting the nation’s economy at 41 percent, while 37

percent say that they are helping, and 20 percent say that his policies make no difference.

“As trade tensions with China dominate the headlines, confidence in the economy is slipping,” adds

Mary Snow. “The number of people who think the economy is getting worse rose by double digits since June.

And roughly 4 in 10 voters blame the President’s policies, saying they are hurting the economy, the highest

level since Trump took office.”

Trump’s approval for his handling of the economy is split, with 46 percent approving and 49 percent

disapproving. On his handling of other issues, the president is decidedly underwater:

• 38 – 56 percent approval for his handling of foreign policy;

• 38 – 59 percent approval for his handling of immigration issues;

• 38 – 54 percent approval for his handling of trade;

• 38 – 53 percent approval for his handling of gun policy;

• 32 – 62 percent approval for his handling of race relations.

In addition, 62 percent of voters say that President Trump is doing more to divide the country as

president, while 30 percent say that he is doing more to unite the country – an all-time low. These numbers may

help explain why only 36 percent of voters report that they are very or somewhat satisfied with the way things

are going in the nation today.

The Democratic Primary

The race for the 2020 Democratic nomination for president has remained steady, with little to no

movement since the last time the Quinnipiac University Poll asked the primary question nationwide in early

August.

Biden leads the pack with 32 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean

Democratic, followed by Warren at 19 percent. Sanders has 15 percent, while Harris gets 7 percent, and

Buttigieg gets 5 percent. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang receives 3 percent, and no other candidate tops 1 percent.

From August 21 – 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,422 self-identified registered voters nationwide

with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 648

Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage

points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys

using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University

Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as

well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email [email protected], or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

Page 3: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

3

1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot,

some, only a little, or none at all?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

A lot 47% 56% 50% 42% 50% 45% 54% 49%

Some 30 25 31 32 28 31 27 29

Only a little 16 14 15 17 16 16 14 16

None at all 6 5 4 7 5 7 5 6

DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

A lot 35% 42% 51% 61% 52% 51% 51% 41% 34%

Some 40 30 28 24 27 29 28 32 31

Only a little 16 23 15 9 16 14 15 18 21

None at all 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 8 12

DK/NA 2 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 3

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................

POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE......

LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG

Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No

A lot 50% 69% 45% 47% 51% 50% 59% 38% 61% 56%

Some 31 25 36 31 30 31 27 33 25 29

Only a little 14 3 16 16 12 15 11 20 12 10

None at all 4 3 2 6 6 3 4 8 2 5

DK/NA - - 1 - 1 - - 1 - -

PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME.............

Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+

A lot 50% 52% 39% 44% 52% 69% 43% 55% 53%

Some 31 30 41 32 32 19 30 31 33

Only a little 15 12 13 20 11 10 20 8 12

None at all 4 5 7 3 5 3 6 6 2

DK/NA - 1 1 - - - 1 - -

TREND: How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a

lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

OnlyA None

A lot Some Little AtAll DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 47 30 16 6 1

Jul 29, 2019 48 28 15 9 1

Jun 11, 2019 42 30 18 10 -

May 21, 2019 44 30 17 8 -

Apr 30, 2019 49 28 13 8 1

Page 4: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

4

2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being

held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala

Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro,

Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne

Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Joe Sestak, and Tom

Steyer, for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................

POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE......

LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG

Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No

Biden 32% 15% 29% 41% 32% 32% 30% 46% 29% 30%

Sanders 15 22 18 10 19 12 14 10 9 19

O'Rourke 1 - 2 1 2 1 2 - 2 1

Harris 7 12 7 5 6 7 7 7 11 3

Warren 19 34 23 13 18 20 23 10 25 20

Booker 1 3 - 1 1 2 1 3 1 2

Gillibrand - - - - - - - - - -

Klobuchar 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 -

Castro - 1 1 - - 1 1 - 1 1

Gabbard 1 3 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 2

Delaney - - - - - - - - - -

Buttigieg 5 5 6 5 7 3 7 - 7 6

Yang 3 1 4 3 2 3 2 - 2 3

Williamson 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - - 1

Messam - - - - - - - - - -

Ryan - - - - - - - - - -

Bennet 1 - - 2 1 1 1 3 - 1

Bullock 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - 1 1

de Blasio 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - - 1

Sestak - - - - - - - - - -

Steyer - - - - - - - - 1 -

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 - - - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - - 3 1 3 1 6 1 2

DK/NA 9 5 9 10 7 11 7 15 7 6

Cont’d

Page 5: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

5

2 cont’d. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were

being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke,

Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian

Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson,

Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Joe Sestak, and

Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.................................

PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME.............

Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+

Biden 33% 28% 10% 34% 37% 48% 34% 28% 33%

Sanders 13 21 31 13 12 4 20 16 9

O'Rourke 1 2 1 2 3 - 1 3 1

Harris 8 3 6 7 10 3 3 8 12

Warren 19 19 25 19 15 20 16 23 23

Booker 2 - 3 2 1 - - 1 1

Gillibrand - - - - - - - - -

Klobuchar - 1 - - 1 1 - - 2

Castro - 1 - - 1 - - - 1

Gabbard 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 -

Delaney - - - - - - - - -

Buttigieg 4 8 6 6 3 6 4 3 6

Yang 3 2 8 1 2 1 2 3 2

Williamson - 2 - 1 - - 1 - -

Messam - - - - - - - - -

Ryan - - - - - - - - -

Bennet 1 1 - 1 2 - 2 - -

Bullock - 1 - - 1 2 1 1 -

de Blasio 1 2 3 - - - 1 2 -

Sestak - - - - - - - - -

Steyer - 1 - - - - - 1 -

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - - - - 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 3 2 4 - 1

DK/NA 10 5 6 7 8 11 10 7 7

Cont’d

Page 6: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

6

2 cont’d. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were

being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke,

Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian

Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson,

Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Joe Sestak, and

Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

ATTN TO PRES CAMPAIGN Q1

Little/

A lot Some None

Biden 32% 33% 31%

Sanders 11 19 18

O'Rourke 1 2 1

Harris 7 9 -

Warren 25 17 6

Booker 2 1 -

Gillibrand - - -

Klobuchar 1 1 -

Castro - 1 2

Gabbard 2 1 1

Delaney - - -

Buttigieg 6 4 2

Yang 2 4 1

Williamson 1 - -

Messam - - -

Ryan - - -

Bennet 1 1 -

Bullock 1 - 2

de Blasio - - 4

Sestak - - -

Steyer - - -

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 3

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 5

DK/NA 6 5 25

Page 7: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

7

TREND: (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were

being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke,

Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian

Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson,

Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Joe Sestak, and

Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS..................................

Aug 28 Aug 06 Jul 29 Jul 02 Jun 11 May 21 Apr 30 Mar 28

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019

Biden 32 32 34 22 30 35 38 29

Sanders 15 14 11 13 19 16 11 19

O'Rourke 1 2 2 1 3 2 5 12

Harris 7 7 12 20 7 8 8 8

Warren 19 21 15 14 15 13 12 4

Booker 1 2 1 3 1 3 2 2

Gillibrand - - - - - - - -

Klobuchar 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2

Castro - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1

Gabbard 1 1 1 1 - 1 - -

Delaney - - - - - - - -

Buttigieg 5 5 6 4 8 5 10 4

Yang 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 -

Williamson 1 - 1 - - - - -

Messam - - - - - - - na

Ryan - - - - 1 - - na

Bennet 1 - - - - - na na

Bullock 1 - - - - - na na

de Blasio 1 - - - - - na na

Sestak - - - - na na na na

Steyer - - - na na na na na

Gravel na - - - - na na na

Hickenlooper na - - - - - - 1

Inslee na - - - - - 1 -

Moulton na - - - - - - na

Swalwell na na na - - - - na

SMONE ELSE 1 - - - - - - 1

WLDN'T VOTE 2 1 1 3 1 - 2 1

DK/NA 9 10 12 12 13 11 8 14

Page 8: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

8

3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden

the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Biden 54% 10% 94% 56% 47% 61% 54% 44%

Trump 38 87 3 30 44 32 40 50

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 4 2 1 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 3 2 2 2

DK/NA 4 3 - 7 4 5 4 3

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Biden 61% 53% 51% 53% 42% 56% 49% 84% 63%

Trump 29 37 42 41 52 38 45 6 29

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - 2 - 1 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 1 1 2 2 2 5 3

DK/NA 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 4

TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe

Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

SMONE WLD'T

Biden Trump ELSE VOTE DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 54 38 1 2 4

Jun 11, 2019 53 40 1 2 4

Sep 24, 2015 51 40 1 4 4

Aug 27, 2015 48 40 2 5 5

Jul 30, 2015 49 37 3 6 5

Page 9: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

9

4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie

Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Sanders 53% 8% 93% 55% 47% 60% 50% 45%

Trump 39 89 3 30 45 32 41 50

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 1 2 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 3 3 2 2

DK/NA 4 2 2 6 3 4 4 2

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Sanders 64% 52% 50% 49% 39% 56% 48% 86% 62%

Trump 28 37 44 43 54 38 46 6 29

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 2 - 1 1 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 2 2 2 3 7

DK/NA 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 2

TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were

Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

SMONE WLD'T

Sanders Trump ELSE VOTE DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 53 39 1 3 4

Jun 11, 2019 51 42 1 2 4

Jun 01, 2016 48 39 3 6 5

Mar 23, 2016 52 38 2 5 3

Feb 18, 2016 48 42 2 5 4

Feb 05, 2016 49 39 2 6 5

Dec 22, 2015 51 38 1 6 4

Dec 02, 2015 49 41 1 5 4

Nov 04, 2015 46 44 1 4 4

Sep 24, 2015 47 42 1 5 5

See additional trend information on website

Page 10: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

10

5. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Elizabeth

Warren the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Warren 52% 7% 93% 54% 44% 60% 50% 42%

Trump 40 90 4 33 46 35 42 53

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 2 - 2 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 3 4 1 2 2

DK/NA 4 2 1 6 4 4 3 3

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Warren 60% 50% 51% 50% 37% 54% 46% 85% 65%

Trump 32 40 45 43 54 41 48 6 27

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 2 1 1 2 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 3 3 1 2 5 2

DK/NA 4 5 2 3 3 3 3 1 6

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were

Elizabeth Warren the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

SMONE WLD'T

Warren Trump ELSE VOTE DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 52 40 1 3 4

Jun 11, 2019 49 42 1 3 5

6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala

Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Harris 51% 7% 90% 51% 43% 58% 50% 41%

Trump 40 89 4 33 46 34 41 54

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 1 2 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 3 5 2 2 3

DK/NA 5 2 2 9 5 5 6 2

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Harris 58% 51% 50% 47% 36% 54% 45% 82% 60%

Trump 30 38 45 44 55 40 48 8 24

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 1 3 3 1 2 6 4

DK/NA 7 6 2 4 3 4 4 - 13

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were

Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

SMONE WLD'T

Harris Trump ELSE VOTE DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 51 40 2 3 5

Jun 11, 2019 49 41 1 2 6

Page 11: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

11

7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Pete

Buttigieg the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Buttigieg 49% 6% 87% 52% 40% 56% 51% 40%

Trump 40 89 6 31 47 33 41 53

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 5 2 2 2

DK/NA 7 3 3 10 6 8 6 4

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Buttigieg 54% 49% 46% 47% 36% 54% 45% 71% 54%

Trump 33 38 44 44 55 39 47 12 26

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 3 3 1 2 6 6

DK/NA 9 8 6 4 5 5 5 8 12

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Pete

Buttigieg the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Butti- SMONE WLD'T

gieg Trump ELSE VOTE DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 49 40 2 3 7

Jun 11, 2019 47 42 1 3 7

Page 12: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

12

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve 38% 85% 4% 32% 45% 33% 40% 50%

Disapprove 56 10 94 60 49 62 56 45

DK/NA 6 5 2 8 6 5 4 5

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve 30% 38% 43% 43% 52% 38% 45% 7% 31%

Disapprove 61 55 53 54 43 58 51 88 56

DK/NA 9 7 4 3 5 4 4 4 13

Wht

Evang

Approve 69%

Disapprove 27

DK/NA 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as

president?

App Dis DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 38 56 6

Jul 29, 2019 40 54 6

Jun 11, 2019 42 53 5

May 21, 2019 38 57 5

May 02, 2019 41 55 5

Mar 26, 2019 39 55 5

Mar 05, 2019 38 55 6

Jan 29, 2019 38 57 5

Jan 15, 2019 41 55 3

Dec 19, 2018 39 52 8

See additional trend information on website

Page 13: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

13

8a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as

president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q8) Do you strongly or somewhat

approve/disapprove?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve strongly 27% 70% 3% 15% 30% 25% 29% 37%

Approve smwht 11 16 1 17 14 8 11 12

Disapprove smwht 5 3 5 6 6 5 4 5

Disapprove strongly 50 7 89 54 43 57 51 40

DK/NA 6 5 2 8 6 5 4 5

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve strongly 15% 26% 34% 33% 36% 30% 33% 5% 17%

Approve smwht 15 12 8 10 16 8 12 2 14

Disapprove smwht 9 5 5 4 5 4 5 6 3

Disapprove strongly 52 50 48 51 38 53 46 82 53

DK/NA 9 7 4 3 5 4 5 4 13

Wht

Evang

Approve strongly 56%

Approve smwht 13

Disapprove smwht 4

Disapprove strongly 23

DK/NA 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as

president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove) Do you strongly or somewhat

approve/disapprove?

APPROVE...... DISAPPROVE.....

Strngly Smwht Smwht Strngly DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 27 11 5 50 6

Jul 29, 2019 28 12 7 47 7

Jun 11, 2019 29 13 7 46 5

May 21, 2019 28 10 8 48 5

May 02, 2019 30 10 8 46 6

Mar 26, 2019 28 11 8 47 6

Mar 05, 2019 28 9 9 46 8

Jan 29, 2019 29 9 6 50 5

Jan 15, 2019 33 8 5 50 4

Dec 19, 2018 31 8 7 46 8

See additional trend information on website

Page 14: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

14

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the economy?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve 46% 91% 10% 42% 52% 40% 47% 56%

Disapprove 49 7 85 51 43 55 49 40

DK/NA 5 2 5 7 5 5 4 3

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve 39% 48% 51% 47% 58% 46% 52% 16% 41%

Disapprove 53 49 46 48 38 51 45 79 45

DK/NA 9 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 15

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy?

App Dis DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 46 49 5

May 21, 2019 48 45 7

Mar 05, 2019 49 45 7

Jan 29, 2019 46 51 3

Jan 15, 2019 49 48 4

Nov 20, 2018 53 42 5

Jul 24, 2018 49 47 5

Jul 03, 2018 50 45 5

Jun 20, 2018 51 45 5

Jun 06, 2018 49 46 5

See additional trend information on website

Page 15: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

15

10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - foreign policy?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve 38% 84% 4% 30% 44% 32% 40% 49%

Disapprove 56 13 90 63 51 61 56 46

DK/NA 6 3 5 7 4 7 4 4

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve 27% 39% 43% 40% 51% 39% 45% 10% 23%

Disapprove 65 54 53 55 45 57 51 81 61

DK/NA 8 7 3 5 4 5 4 8 16

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling foreign policy?

App Dis DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 38 56 6

May 21, 2019 37 58 6

Mar 05, 2019 38 56 6

Jan 29, 2019 37 58 5

Jan 15, 2019 40 56 4

Nov 20, 2018 42 53 6

Jul 24, 2018 38 58 4

Jul 03, 2018 43 53 4

Jun 20, 2018 44 53 3

Jun 06, 2018 40 52 7

See additional trend information on website

Page 16: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

16

11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - immigration

issues?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve 38% 83% 6% 29% 44% 32% 38% 47%

Disapprove 59 14 92 66 53 64 58 48

DK/NA 4 4 2 4 3 4 3 4

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve 24% 38% 44% 41% 51% 35% 43% 16% 27%

Disapprove 72 57 54 55 46 61 53 82 65

DK/NA 4 5 2 4 4 4 4 2 8

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling immigration

issues?

App Dis DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 38 59 4

Mar 05, 2019 40 58 2

Jan 29, 2019 38 59 2

Jan 15, 2019 42 56 2

Nov 20, 2018 41 56 4

Jul 03, 2018 39 58 3

Jun 06, 2018 38 58 4

Apr 10, 2018 42 55 3

Feb 07, 2018 39 58 3

Jan 17, 2018 38 60 2

See additional trend information on website

Page 17: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

17

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - trade?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve 38% 81% 6% 32% 45% 32% 40% 49%

Disapprove 54 15 88 58 49 59 55 44

DK/NA 8 4 6 11 6 9 5 7

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve 27% 39% 43% 41% 50% 38% 44% 11% 27%

Disapprove 60 52 53 53 45 54 50 84 56

DK/NA 13 9 4 5 4 8 6 6 17

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling trade?

App Dis DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 38 54 8

May 21, 2019 39 53 8

Jan 15, 2019 42 50 8

Jul 03, 2018 38 55 7

Jun 08, 2018 40 51 9

Apr 10, 2018 40 52 8

Mar 06, 2018 34 54 13

May 10, 2017 38 49 13

13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - gun policy?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve 38% 80% 8% 32% 46% 32% 38% 50%

Disapprove 53 13 87 57 46 60 53 42

DK/NA 8 7 5 11 8 8 8 8

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve 34% 38% 41% 38% 52% 36% 44% 11% 34%

Disapprove 56 50 53 54 39 56 48 80 58

DK/NA 10 12 5 8 9 8 8 9 8

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling gun policy?

App Dis DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 38 53 8

Nov 20, 2018 40 52 8

Nov 15, 2017 40 52 8

Oct 12, 2017 42 47 11

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18

14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - race relations?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve 32% 74% 4% 22% 38% 26% 35% 41%

Disapprove 62 17 93 72 55 68 59 53

DK/NA 6 9 3 6 7 6 5 7

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve 19% 30% 38% 38% 44% 32% 38% 6% 21%

Disapprove 73 65 57 57 49 63 56 85 71

DK/NA 9 5 6 5 7 5 6 8 8

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling race relations?

App Dis DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 32 62 6

Nov 20, 2018 35 59 6

Jul 03, 2018 36 58 6

Jun 07, 2018 33 61 6

Oct 11, 2017 35 59 6

Sep 27, 2017 32 62 6

Aug 23, 2017 31 63 6

Page 19: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

19

15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today;

are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Very satisfied 14% 37% 3% 6% 15% 13% 16% 18%

Smwht satisfied 22 38 5 26 30 16 22 26

Smwht dissatisfied 22 14 23 26 23 21 20 19

Very dissatisfied 39 8 68 39 31 47 38 35

DK/NA 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 2

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Very satisfied 7% 15% 19% 15% 18% 16% 17% 5% 8%

Smwht satisfied 29 21 22 21 30 18 24 9 27

Smwht dissatisfied 26 26 18 17 21 19 20 22 25

Very dissatisfied 36 35 40 45 29 43 36 62 38

DK/NA 2 2 2 3 1 4 3 2 2

TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation

today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very

dissatisfied?

Very Smwht Smwht Very

sat sat dis dis DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 14 22 22 39 3

Jan 15, 2019 10 27 23 39 1

Dec 18, 2018 13 28 22 35 2

Sep 10, 2018 15 26 20 37 2

Jun 06, 2018 8 29 26 36 1

Feb 20, 2018 8 21 22 47 1

Jan 18, 2018 9 31 22 37 1

Dec 20, 2017 7 26 24 43 1

Nov 22, 2017 7 25 29 38 1

Nov 14, 2017 5 23 29 42 1

See additional trend information on website

Page 20: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

20

16. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good,

not so good, or poor?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Excellent 18% 43% 2% 12% 23% 13% 20% 23%

Good 43 45 37 45 44 42 47 43

Not so good 27 9 43 28 23 31 25 24

Poor 10 1 17 13 8 13 7 9

DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 -

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Excellent 8% 20% 21% 20% 27% 17% 22% 1% 10%

Good 47 44 42 43 47 43 45 33 43

Not so good 30 24 29 24 19 29 24 48 28

Poor 11 11 7 12 5 10 8 17 13

DK/NA 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6

TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent,

good, not so good, or poor?

Not so

Exclnt Good Good Poor DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 18 43 27 10 2

Jun 11, 2019 19 51 20 8 1

May 21, 2019 22 49 20 8 1

Jan 15, 2019 15 49 26 9 2

Dec 18, 2018 14 51 25 10 1

Sep 10, 2018 21 49 20 8 3

Aug 14, 2018 15 52 23 9 2

Jun 06, 2018 13 49 26 11 2

Apr 11, 2018 9 51 27 12 1

Mar 07, 2018 9 52 24 13 2

See additional trend information on website

Page 21: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

21

17. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about

the same?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Better 31% 68% 5% 23% 36% 26% 31% 37%

Worse 37 5 64 42 31 42 41 31

The same 30 25 30 34 30 30 27 30

DK/NA 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Better 24% 33% 35% 29% 40% 29% 34% 12% 27%

Worse 34 34 40 38 29 42 36 51 33

The same 36 32 24 31 30 27 29 34 33

DK/NA 6 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 6

TREND: Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying

about the same?

Better Worse Same DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 31 37 30 2

Jun 11, 2019 39 23 37 2

Aug 14, 2018 45 21 31 3

Mar 07, 2018 42 21 35 2

Aug 17, 2017 43 15 39 2

Jun 28, 2017 37 19 42 2

May 10, 2017 36 21 41 1

Apr 20, 2017 34 16 49 2

Apr 04, 2017 32 16 48 4

Mar 22, 2017 40 16 39 4

See additional trend information on website

Page 22: ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK … · • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President

22

18. Do you think President Trump's policies are helping the nation's economy, hurting the

nation's economy, or aren't making much of a difference?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Helping 37% 82% 4% 28% 42% 31% 40% 45%

Hurting 41 6 73 41 35 47 44 35

No difference 20 11 22 27 20 20 13 18

DK/NA 2 1 1 4 2 2 3 2

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Helping 27% 34% 45% 39% 49% 37% 43% 9% 28%

Hurting 41 41 40 45 33 46 40 59 40

No difference 30 21 15 15 16 15 16 33 28

DK/NA 3 3 1 1 2 3 2 - 4

TREND: Do you think President Trump's policies are helping the nation's economy, hurting

the nation's economy, or aren't making much of a difference?

Help Hurt NoDiff DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 37 41 20 2

Jan 15, 2019 40 37 20 2

Dec 18, 2018 43 30 25 2

Jan 10, 2018 37 29 30 4

Nov 22, 2017 36 31 30 4

20. Do you feel that Donald Trump is doing more to unite the country as president, or

doing more to divide the country as president?

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Unite 30% 71% 4% 21% 36% 25% 31% 42%

Divide 62 17 94 69 56 67 61 51

DK/NA 8 12 2 10 8 8 8 7

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Unite 15% 29% 38% 37% 43% 30% 36% 7% 19%

Divide 72 61 57 58 50 62 56 85 74

DK/NA 13 10 5 5 7 8 8 7 6

TREND: Do you feel that Donald Trump is doing more to unite the country as President, or

doing more to divide the country as President? (Prior to Feb 22, 2017 "will do more")

Unite Divide DK/NA

Aug 28, 2019 30 62 8

Jul 03, 2018 36 58 5

Feb 07, 2018 35 60 6

Jan 17, 2018 31 64 5

Dec 12, 2017 32 62 7

Oct 11, 2017 37 58 5

Sep 27, 2017 35 60 5

Aug 23, 2017 31 62 7

Apr 19, 2017 36 59 6

Apr 04, 2017 34 61 6

See additional trend information on website