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The Imperative of Strategic Enrollment Planning: Why Today’s Environment Requires More Planning, and Why It’s Risky to Delay

Gary L. FretwellSenior Vice President and Principal

“May you live in interesting times!”

It is reported that it was the first of three curses of increasing severity, the other two being:

–May you come to the attention of those in authority

–May you find what you are looking for

1. Why Plan?

2. Strategic Enrollment Planning Overview

3. Creating the Organizational Structures

4. Characteristics of a Successful Strategic Enrollment Plan

1Why Plan?

The future is embedded in the present.– John Naisbitt

Number of colleges and universities, 2012-13

© Copyright 2012, The Chronicle of Higher Education.© Copyright 2012, The Chronicle of Higher Education.Reprinted with permission. This material may not be posted, published, or distributed without permission from The Chronicle.

shis material may not be posted, published, or distributed with permission from The Chronicle.

Projected change in numbers of new high school graduates

2011-12 to 2021-22

© Copyright 2011, The Chronicle of Higher Education.Reprinted with permission. This material may not be posted,

published, or distributed without permission from The Chronicle.

Median cost to recruit a single student

© 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks

for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions

Four-year private Four-year public Two year public*$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500$2,185

$457

$108

*Limited sample size for this sector.

Average net revenueper freshman, 2000-2012

(tuition, fees, room, and board)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

$13,000

$14,000

$15,000

$16,000

$17,000

$18,000

$19,000

$20,000

$21,000

$22,000

$13,690$14,199

$14,954$15,640

$16,670$17,445

$18,187

$19,338$19,660$19,649

$20,292$20,501

$21,375

© 2013. Noel-Levitz, Inc.2013 Discounting Report

Overall satisfaction acrosstraditional institution types

Four-year privates Four-year publics Community colleges Career schools0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

57%54%

62%

54%

percent satisfied or very satisfied

© 2012, Noel-Levitz, Inc.2012 Noel-Levitz National Student Satisfaction and Priorities Results

• Early 19th century: the colonial colleges were joined by several hundred more religiously founded institutions.

• Mid-19th century: the rise of public colleges, culminating in the Morrill Act of 1862.

• Early 20th century: the emergence of the modern research university; the articulation of the Wisconsin Idea, that public universities should serve the public; and the appearance of extension services.

• The 1960s: the transformation of normal schools into comprehensive universities; the rapid proliferation of community colleges; the end of legal segregation in higher education; and sharply increased federal aid to colleges and universities.

Profound transformations have reshaped the higher-education

landscape in roughly 50-year intervals.

© Copyright 2013, Steven Mintz, Executive Director of the University of Texas system’s Institute for Transformational Learning; Commentary printed in The Chronicle of Higher Education, July 22, 2013.Reprinted with permission. This material may not be posted, published, or distributed without permission from Steven Mintz.

We are in the midst of another higher-education revolution

Many of the forces affecting colleges are well known

• Economic, as various revenue streams lag behind rising costs;

• Demographic, as colleges enroll more part-time and nontraditional students who struggle with financial challenges, disabilities, inadequate preparation, and work-family stresses; and

• Market-driven, as for-profit and aggressive nonprofit institutions compete for the most rapidly growing student sector, working adults.

As The Chronicle's Jeff Selingo has suggested, an equally serious challenge is ideological

Now regarded as a private rather than a public good, higher education must address a host of criticisms: • That graduation rates are too low, • That levels of student engagement and learning

outcomes are unacceptable, and • That a college education does not provide good

value for the money.

The most important challenge involves a shift in the way students consume higher education

Instead of attending a single institution, students receive credit in multiple ways, including from early-college/dual-degree programs, community colleges, online providers, and multiple universities.

Students are voting with their feet, embracing online courses and undermining core curricula, which served as a cash cow, by turning to alternate providers, and pursuing fewer majors that require study of a foreign language.

Colleges must become more nimble, entrepreneurial, student-focused, and accountable for what students learn

Steven Mintz makes these predictions for 15 innovations that will alter the face of higher education in the next 3 years:

1. E-Advising2. Evidence-based pedagogy3. Decline of the lone-eagle teaching

approach4. Optimized class time5. Easier educational transitions6. Fewer large lecture classes7. New frontiers for e-learning8. Personalized adaptive learning

9. Increased competency-based and prior-learning credits

10.Data-driven instruction11. Aggressive pursuit of new revenue12.Online and low-residency degrees

at flagships13.More certificates and badges14.Free and open textbooks15.Public-private partnerships

These changes are already provoking a great deal of anxiety and alarm

There is a danger that higher education will become even more stratified and bifurcated than it already is.

The fear is that less-well-financed institutions will displace faculty with low-quality correspondence courses and forms of machine learning that poorly serve at-risk students.

The next three years hold out the prospect of transforming the higher-education experience in positive ways.

Public higher education will change fundamentally, whether we like it or not

"The key to success in the 21st century is alignment;

Staying in alignment with a world that will be characterized by complexity, diversity, and pace of change."

- Ed Barlow, Futurist -

What will be necessary to change in our enrollment processes, priorities,

and systems to achieve our enrollment goals and respond to the institutional strategic plan within an ever-changing

environment?

TechnologicalResources

Fiscal Resources

Human Resources

Planning allows us to answer thequestion: “How can we better plan

to effectively use our limited resources?”

2 Strategic Enrollment

PlanningOverview

© 2012 Noel-Levitz, Inc.

Strategic planning=

Align organization withits environment

to promote stability, sustainability, growth,

and/or excellence

Traditional planning=

Set goals thendevelop steps to

achieve those goals

Institutional Strategic Enrollment Planning Alignment

Strategic plan

Mission

Vision

Institutional Effectiveness

Strategic Enrollment Plan

KPI

Strategies

Enrollment Goals

Annual PlansMarketing Recruitment

Success and Completion (PPRC/G)

Copyright Noel-Levitz, Inc.

Strategic Enrollment Planning

Strategic Enrollment Planning …Involves the campus in identifying, prioritizing, implementing, evaluating, and modifying enrollment strategies and goals within a changing environment in order to effectively and efficiently :• Realize the institution’s mission and vision, and• Support the institution’s capabilities to recruit and maximally

serve students currently and in the future.

How does the strategic enrollment planning model differ from the traditional planning model?

Communication is key to success

• Preparation• Data Collection• Key Performance Indicators• Situation Analysis

Phase One: Data Analysis

• Strategy Development• Tactics Identified• Strategy Prioritization

Phase Two:Strategies

• ROI Considerations• Enrollment Projection• Goal Setting• Finalize Written Plan

Phase ThreeEnrollment Goals

• Implementation of Plan• Form Strategic EM Council

Phase Four:Implementation

Step by Step Approach

Competition, market demand,

and institutional strength

Market Demand: What students

want - Relevance

Program: What we do

best - Authenticity

Competition: Unoccupied

market positions -

Differentiation

Key Performance Indicators

Enrollment

External

Market demand

Selectivity

DiversityTrue Capacity

Pricing and Net Costs

Persistence &

Graduation

Experience &

Engagement

Data Types

KPI’s are often the most complex, reflecting strategic actions that take considerable time

to evolve

Example KPI: Full Time Undergraduate Headcount

Graduating Seniors

New FY and Transfer

FT UG Headcount

Attrition

Funnel rates

Selectivity

Reputation

Demographics

Market share

Discount rate

Placement rate: Grad and Prof. Sch.

Student loan debt

Job placement rate

Overall satisfaction

4,5,6-yr. grad. rates

NSSE scores

First-year, So, Jr. Sr. rates Minority, High revenue, Athletes, etc.

Student: teacher ratioAvg. class sizeNet. $$ per studentNet tuition per student

What is your desired future state?

Shape class

Current market penetration

Competition analysis

Goals:

Increase SAT/ACT to 1200

Increase first-to-second year retention to 82%

Increase grad rate to 60%

Increase new students

Demographics

Academic offerings

Price sensitivity

Goals:

Increase new student class by 3% per year

Increase transfer class by 5% per year

Increase new and graduate more students

Program delivery styles

Co-curricular offerings

Goals:

Increase new students by 5% every other year

Increase second-to-third year rate to 75%

Evaluating the economics of programs – strategic response

Manage Grow or Build

Reduce or Eliminate

Start

Enr

ollm

ent

as %

of

Cap

acity

Net Operating Income Per Student

Evaluating the economics of programs

Enr

ollm

ent

as %

of

Cap

acity

Net Operating Income Per Student

High, High

Low, HighLow, Low

High, Low

Enrollment Growth Strategy Matrix

Market Penetration

Program Development

Market Development Diversification

Existing Programs/Services

NewPrograms/Services

Existing Markets

New Markets

Systems Approach

Web Analytics

Name Purchase

Social Media Integration

Integrated CRM

E-Comm. Flows

Financial Aid Leveraging

Curricular Offering

Co-Curricular Offerings

Retention Prediction

DIVERSE ENTRY

SUBPOPULATIONS

SUBPOPULATIONS

Funnel Management

Enrollment Stage Rate

Enrollment Stage

Applicant

Prospect

Inquiry

Completed Applicant

Accepted

Confirmed

Enrolled

Response

Conversion

Completion

Acceptance

Confirmation

Capture

Yield (accept to enroll)

Return on Investment

Strategy

Analysis

• Time/staff/technology needs to implement• Expected level of strategy impact• Priority to accomplishing enrollment projection

Campus

Readiness

• Availability of staff or technical resources to implement• Funding available • Campus understanding of need for change

Return on investmen

t

• Projected outcomes occurred• Review of actual cost to implement

Sample Table of Contents for the finalized SEP plan

Introduction and Executive Summary

Organizational Structure for Planning and Foci

Situation Analysis

Mission, Vision, Key Performance Indicators, Planning Assumptions

Strategies and Priorities for Action

Enrollment Goals, Projections, and Return on Investments

Future Structure to Monitor Enrollment Management

Summary

3Creating the Organizational

Structures

Leadership Matters

Active Planning

Broad Participation

Leadership Communication Right People

Grounded in DataInternal CURRENT External

Leadership EngagementAgreement on Process Planning Context

Strategic Enrollment Planning Council (SEPC)

Goals

• Assesses progress toward goal obtainment

KPI

• Monitors KPIs (not necessarily PIs)

Strategy

Implementat

ion

• Sets priorities and budget dollars linked to priorities to accomplish goals

1. President/Provost/VPAA2. Chief Financial Officer3. Director of Institutional Research4. Faculty Leadership (multiple people)5. Director of Marketing/Communications6. Vice President for Student Life7. Vice President for Enrollment

Management

Maybe:Director of AthleticsDirector of AdmissionsDirector of Financial AidRegistrarDirector of Housing

Strategic Enrollment Planning Council

(Get-it-done, high-level team!)

1. Vice President for Enrollment Management or AVP EM

2. Academic Leadership3. Vice President for Student Success4. Director of Marketing/Communications5. Director of Admissions6. Director of Retention/Student Success7. Faculty8. Director of Financial Aid 9. Institutional Research10. Student Reps

Maybe:Director of AthleticsRegistrarDirector of Housing

Action/Steering Committee

(Get-it-done, coordinating team!)

• Lead person (or co-lead) who works well with others, has a passion for topic, and can be the go-between for the SEP council

• Working group members who are prepared to work

• Include representation to gather buy-in

• Likely should lead a working group

Action/Steering Committee

1. Assessing a changing environment

2. Academic and co-curricular program planning

3. Net operating revenues and expenses

4. Pricing5. Financial aid policies6. Shaping the student profile7. Student retention8. Enrollment management

effectiveness

Define Project Scope

• Review and collate data• Analyze data• Draft situation analysis• Determine working groups

foci• Ensure working groups

meet and collaborate• Identify priorities• Make recommendations to

council• Write the plan

Action Items for Action/Steering Group

• Focus area situation analyses• Ensure focus remains connected toward

supporting strong academic outcomes• Strengthen the college/university through

providing strategic direction that is data-informed

• Strategy ideation• Unify approach and vision of enrollment

management• Remain data-informed and seek ways to

further enhance and integrate data and data collection into the planning processes

• Maintain enrollment and seek to maximize your profile

• Diversify your campus profile • Provide long-term, practical, and tangible

business/action plans that are executable

Working Group Activities Focus

SEP Priorities

Long-range Enrollment

Academic and Co-curricular

Model Enrollment Projecting

Strategic Plan

4Characteristics of a Successful

Strategic Enrollment Plan

Funnel Management by Subpopulation

Strong Institutional Buy-in

Data-Informed

Data-themed SWOT Analysis

Creates a Sense of Urgency

Provide Planning Assumptions

Defined Populations

Goal, Objectives, and Action Strategies

Goals

A solid resource/fiscal plan to support each strategy, goal, and objective

Living Plan