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ALGERIA
Oil and Gas Fields
Financial Report
By
Sixth Edition
June 2015
Contents and a sample field only
This is the Sixth Edition of our Algeria Oil and Gas Field Financial Report. It contains 509 pages and includes economic assessment
on 65 developed and undeveloped fields in Algeria
For a full list of clients see: http://www.bayphase.com/clients.php
Our Product Clients
1 Executive Summary The Algeria Oil and Gas Financial Report presents the results of an economic evaluation of each discovered producing and non-producing field in Algeria. This is a complementary publication to our Algeria Strategic Report which amongst other things evaluates the reserves, production potential and key technical data for all of the discovered fields that Bayphase has identified in Algeria; a total of 65 fields. The Algeria Strategic Report has been compiled and over a ten year period – since 2005 – and in our view it provides the best overall assessment of the potential of Algeria’s oil and gas fields available to the industry today.
1.1 Basis The evaluation has been conducted on a field by field basis. Fields have been grouped by hydrocarbon province, hydrocarbon type - oil field or non-associated gas field - and current status: producing or non-producing. Each of the fields was evaluated against the following scenario matrix:
Table 1.1: Economic Scenarios Matrix for each Field Evaluation
Exploitation Cost
Products Price
Low (Oil – 40$/bbl)
Medium (Oil – 60$/bbl)
High (Oil – 80$/bbl)
Low √ √ √
Medium √ √ √ High √ √ √
The products price included for oil and gas pricing but only the price for oil is shown here; the pricing assumed for the other products is given in the body of the Report. The Exploitation Cost considered all of the elements required to fully develop each property over a period no longer that 301 years including exploration, appraisal, development, production and abandonment:
• Producing Fields: current production level was assumed to continue into 2015 and be adjusted dependent on the field’s potential and amount of investment applied.
• Non-producing Fields: evaluation/exploration activities were assumed to commence in 2015 and production achieved in a timescale commensurate with the field’s potential and normal periods experienced in implementing the activities associated with field exploitation.(This assumption was used as at this current point in time it is impossible to forecast which of these fields will be exploited first and when that exploitation will start)
The Exploitation Cost was based on evaluation work conducted for our Algeria Strategic Report but three levels of cost were used to reflect the uncertainty
1 Due to reserves size a significant number of fields in Algeria could produce for longer than 30 years but the 30 year limit was thought to provide a sensible economic cut-off. Clearly where a field was of a reserve such that it was unlikely to produce for 30 years it was only considered over its field life: 7, 15, 20 or what ever that life was predicted to be.
associated with estimating exploitation costs very early in the field development planning process: Low, Medium and High; Low and High costs were derived directly from our Algeria Strategic Report. We believe the result is a fully ranged, considered assessment of each field that shows how they can perform economically if all the indicators are very positive and also what will happen if these indicators downturn.
There are three different methods were used to evaluate the fields. They are:
• Discounted Cash Flow
• Market Approach
• Cost Approach Those three different methods are well known and completely different methods, to evaluate any asset. Any of them has it’s own advantages and disadvantages. Detailed explanation of each of them is presented in the table below. Table 1.2 Valuation Methods Comparison Table
Valuation Method Producing Fields Non-Producing Fields
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Yes Yes
Market Approach Yes Yes
Cost Approach No Yes
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis was used to evaluate each field using appropriate commercial term which is Royalty and Tax System (R/T) most common fiscal system used by Algeria, also announced in 2005 new Algerian Hydrocarbons Law has adjusted. The economic performance outcomes presented in the method are:
• Net Present Value
• Internal Rate of Return These are presented from three different perspectives:
• International Oil Company (IOC)
• National Oil Company (NOC)
• Project Market Approach evaluation was used on basis of recent known Oil and Gas transaction made in Africa on $/BOE basis. Then the assumed base $/BOE price was adjusted by the different factors such as: Field Specific Factor, Cost Factor and Price Factor to calculate the field’s Market Value.
• Field Specific Factor – Field’s Reserve and Development Scheme Factor
• Cost Factor- Field’s Development and Exploration Costs
• Price Factor – Current Oil and Gas Price Furthermore the field’s Market Value ranged from its Minimum to Maximum value using a three different Market Value Adjustment Scenario (MVAS). They are:
• Pessimistic with probability Minimum - 25% and Maximum - 50%
• Realistic with probability Minimum - 45% and Maximum - 75%
• Optimistic with probability Minimum - 65% and Maximum - 90% The economic performance outcomes presented in the method are:
• Minimum Market Value
• Maximum Market Value These are presented from three different perspectives:
• International Oil Company (IOC)
• National Oil Company (NOC)
• Project Cost Approach evaluation method was used only for Non-Producing fields, on basis of past exploration expenditures done and warranted futures exploration expenditures. The sum of Retained Value on past work and Warranted Future exploration cost is equal to the Value of the Field. 100% of all Future exploration costs were assumed for calculation of the values of the field, where for past exploration costs are unknown, the assumption of different percentages was used regarding to the reserves and $/BOE exploration expenditures. The used assumptions are:
• Low Percentage – 30%
• Medium Percentage – 40%
• High Percentage – 50% Then calculated value adjusted by the Cost Factors to calculate the field’s Value. And the field’s Value ranged from its Minimum to Maximum value using a three different Market Value Adjustment Scenario (MVAS). They are:
• Pessimistic with probability Minimum - 25% and Maximum - 50%
• Realistic with probability Minimum - 45% and Maximum - 75%
• Optimistic with probability Minimum - 65% and Maximum - 90% The economic performance outcomes presented in the report are:
• Minimum Market Value
• Maximum Market Value These are presented from three different perspectives:
• International Oil Company (IOC)
• National Oil Company (NOC)
• Project The result is that the economic performance of a given field can be viewed from a range of perspectives:
• Summary Project Performance
• IOC Performance, this can be reviewed under a range of cost and price scenarios
• NOC Performance, again this can be reviewed under a range of cost and price scenarios
Report History
• 5th Edition April 2014 • 4th Edition April 2013 • 3rd Edition December 2011 • 2nd Edition October 2010 • 1st Edition January 2010
What You Get
• Paper version of our current Algeria Fields Financial Report • Free Searchable CDRom of our current Algeria Fields Financial Report
Contents Contents ........................................................................................................................ 1 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 4
1.1 Basis ..................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Results ................................................................................................................. 7
2 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 17 2.1 Reserves and Exploitation Cost ......................................................................... 18
3 Economic Model ..................................................................................................... 19 3.1 Model Basis ....................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Analysis Results ................................................................................................ 21
4 Economic Assumptions .......................................................................................... 24 4.1 Fiscal System ..................................................................................................... 24 4.2 Evaluation Time ................................................................................................ 24 4.3 Reserve Forecast ................................................................................................ 24 4.4 Product Price ...................................................................................................... 24 4.5 Project Costs ...................................................................................................... 24
4.5.1 Capital Expenditures ................................................................................... 25 4.5.2 Operating Expenditures .............................................................................. 25
4.6 Taxes and Royalty ............................................................................................. 26 4.7 Discount Factor .................................................................................................. 26 4.8 Evaluation Methodology ................................................................................... 26
5 Economic Analysis .................................................................................................. 27 5.1 Oil Fields ........................................................................................................... 28
5.1.1 Grand Erg/Ahnet Basin ........................................................................... 29 5.1.1.1 Producing Fields .................................................................................. 30 5.1.1.2 Non-Producing Fields .......................................................................... 31
5.1.1.2.1 Azzene .......................................................................................... 32 5.1.1.2.2 Decheira ........................................................................................ 38 5.1.1.2.3 Oued Tourhar ................................................................................ 44
5.1.2 Trias/Ghadames Basin ............................................................................. 50 5.1.2.1 Producing Fields .................................................................................. 51
5.1.2.1.1 Berkine North East ....................................................................... 52 5.1.2.1.2 Bir Rebaa ...................................................................................... 58
Page 1 of 509
5.1.2.1.3 El Agreb ........................................................................................ 64 5.1.2.1.4 El Borma ....................................................................................... 70 5.1.2.1.5 El Gassi ......................................................................................... 76 5.1.2.1.6 Guellala ......................................................................................... 82 5.1.2.1.7 Haoud Berkaoui ............................................................................ 88 5.1.2.1.8 Hassi Berkine ................................................................................ 94 5.1.2.1.9 Hassi Berkine South ................................................................... 100 5.1.2.1.10 Hassi Berkine South East ......................................................... 106 5.1.2.1.11 Hassi Messasoud ....................................................................... 112 5.1.2.1.12 Menzal Ledjmet Group Fields .................................................. 118 5.1.2.1.13 Mesdar ...................................................................................... 124 5.1.2.1.14 Ourhoud .................................................................................... 130 5.1.2.1.15 Qoubba North ........................................................................... 136 5.1.2.1.16 Rhourde Berkine ....................................................................... 142 5.1.2.1.17 Rhourde El Baguel .................................................................... 148 5.1.2.1.18 Rhourde El Khrouf ................................................................... 154 5.1.2.1.19 Rhourde Nouss ......................................................................... 160 5.1.2.1.20 ROD Group Fields .................................................................... 166 5.1.2.1.21 Zotti .......................................................................................... 172
5.1.2.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 178 5.1.2.2.1 Bir Seba ...................................................................................... 179 5.1.2.2.2 El Kheit Et Tessekha .................................................................. 185 5.1.2.2.3 El Merk North ............................................................................. 191 5.1.2.2.4 El Merk East ............................................................................... 197 5.1.2.2.5 El Merk ....................................................................................... 203 5.1.2.2.6 Gassi Toual ................................................................................. 209 5.1.2.2.7 Hassi Berkine North East ........................................................... 215
5.1.3 Illizi Basin ................................................................................................. 221 5.1.3.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 222
5.1.3.1.1 Edjeleh ........................................................................................ 223 5.1.3.1.2 El Adeb Larache ......................................................................... 229 5.1.3.1.3 La Reculee .................................................................................. 235 5.1.3.1.4 South East Illizi Group ............................................................... 241 5.1.3.1.5 Stah ............................................................................................. 247 5.1.3.1.6 Tamadanet Group ....................................................................... 253 5.1.3.1.7 Tifernine Group .......................................................................... 259 5.1.3.1.8 Timedratine ................................................................................. 265 5.1.3.1.9 Zarzaitine .................................................................................... 271
5.1.3.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 277 5.1.3.2.1 Tin Zemane ................................................................................. 278
5.2 Gas Fields ........................................................................................................ 284 5.2.1 Grand Erg/Ahnet Basin ......................................................................... 285
5.2.1.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 286 5.2.1.1.1 In Salah Group ............................................................................ 287 5.2.1.1.2 Sbaa ............................................................................................ 293
Page 2 of 509
5.2.1.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 299 5.2.1.2.1 Ahnet Group ............................................................................... 300 5.2.1.2.2 Djebel Berga ............................................................................... 306 5.2.1.2.3 Garet El Gouefoul ....................................................................... 312 5.2.1.2.4 Hassi Ilatou ................................................................................. 318 5.2.1.2.5 Hassi M’Sari ............................................................................... 324 5.2.1.2.6 Hassi Sbaa ................................................................................... 330 5.2.1.2.7 Tit ................................................................................................ 336 5.2.1.2.8 Touat ........................................................................................... 342
5.2.2 Trias/Ghadames Basin ........................................................................... 348 5.2.2.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 349
5.2.2.1.1 Haoud El Hamra ......................................................................... 350 5.2.2.1.2 Hassi R’Mel ................................................................................ 356 5.2.2.1.3 Rhourde Nouss Group ................................................................ 362
5.2.2.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 368 5.2.2.2.1 Gassi Toual ................................................................................. 369 5.2.2.2.2 In Amadjene South ..................................................................... 375 5.2.2.2.3 Menzal Ledjmet East – Block 405b ........................................... 381
5.2.3 Illizi Basin ................................................................................................ 387 5.2.3.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 388
5.2.3.1.1 Alrar ............................................................................................ 389 5.2.3.1.2 In Amenas Group ........................................................................ 395 5.2.3.1.3 Ohanet Group ............................................................................. 401 5.2.3.1.4 Tin Fouye Tabankort .................................................................. 407
5.2.3.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 413 5.2.3.2.1 Alwafa ........................................................................................ 414 5.2.3.2.2 Ain Tsila ..................................................................................... 420 5.2.3.2.3 Issaouanne .................................................................................. 426 5.2.3.2.4 Timellouline South ..................................................................... 432
5.2.4 Reggane Basin ......................................................................................... 438 5.2.4.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 438 5.2.4.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 439
5.2.4.2.1 Azrafil Group .............................................................................. 440 6 Appendices ............................................................................................................ 446
6.1 Appendix 1 – Algeria Mining Act, July 3, 2001 ............................................. 446 7 List of Tables .........................................................................................................
Page 3 of 509
Tab
le 1
.9: T
rias
/Gha
dam
es B
asin
Fie
lds S
umm
ary
(Mill
ion
$)
Oil
(MM
bbl)
Gas
(Bsc
f)
NPV
Mei
dum
Pr
ice&
Cos
tM
arke
t Val
ueM
ean
Cos
t Val
ueM
ean
NPV
Mei
dum
Pr
ice&
Cos
tM
arke
t Val
ueM
ean
Cos
t Val
ueM
ean
NPV
Mei
dum
Pr
ice&
Cos
tM
arke
t Val
ueM
ean
Cos
t Val
ueM
ean
NPV
Mei
dum
Pr
ice&
Cos
tM
arke
t Val
ueM
ean
Cos
t Val
ueM
ean
1H
assi
Mas
saou
d
-
-
-
--
-
-
-
-
-2
Our
houd
-
-
-
-
3H
assi
Ber
kine
Sou
th
-
-
-
-4
El M
er
5
Rho
udre
El B
ague
l
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
6R
houd
re B
erki
ne
-
-
-7
El M
erk
East
8El
Mer
k N
orth
9
Qou
bba
Nor
th
-
-
-
-
10El
Khe
it Et
Tes
sekh
a
11
Has
si B
erki
ne S
outh
Eas
t
-
-
-
12H
assi
Ber
kine
-
-
-
13H
aoud
Ber
kaou
i
--
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
14B
erki
ne N
orth
Eas
t
-
-
-
-
15B
ir R
ebaa
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
16El
Gas
si
-
--
-
-
-
-
-17
Men
zal L
edjm
ent G
roup
Fie
lds
-
-
-
--
-
-
18R
OD
Gro
up F
ield
s
-
-
-
-
-19
Gue
llala
--
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
20El
Agr
eb
-
--
-
-
-
-
-21
El B
orn
--
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
22Zo
tti
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
23H
assi
Ber
kine
Nor
th E
ast
24
Gas
si T
oual
Oil
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
25
Rho
udre
El K
hrou
f
-
-
-
--
-
-
26R
houd
re N
ouss
-
-
-
--
-
-
-
-
-27
Mes
dar
--
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
28H
assi
R'M
el-
-
-
-
--
-
-
-
-
-29
Gas
si T
oual
Gas
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
30H
aoud
El H
amra
-
--
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
31M
enza
l Led
jmen
t Eas
t-Blo
ck 4
0-
-
-
-
-
-
-
32R
houd
re N
ouss
Gro
up-
--
-
-
-
-
--
-
-
33In
Am
adje
ne N
orth
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Tot
al
NO
CIO
C-1
IOC
-2IO
C-3
Item
Fiel
d N
ame
Res
erve
s
Geoff EyreText BoxOne of the Key Summary Tables from the Report which shows the total value of the fields in the Trias/Ghadames Basin broken down by Field, National Oil Company and Participating International Oil Companies - One for each basin considered in addition the value of each International Oil Companies total interests in Algeria is Assessed
Data Has Been Removed from this Sample Sheet
SUMMARYAlgeria Financial Report - SampleProject General Information
Field Name: SampleFiscal System: Royalty & Tax
Participants Share (%) Company NameState: 30.0% Sample
IOCs-Group included: 70.0% SampleIOC-1: 45.0% SampleIOC-2: 25.0% SampleIOC-3: 0.0% N/A
ReservesOil (MMbbl): 0.0
Gas (BBscf): 5,000.0BOE (Million bbl): 835.0
Project PeriodPeriod: 30
Start: 2011End: 2040
Total Costs (Million $)Cost Scenario: Low Medium High
Total Project Cost: 9,815.3 13,912.1 18,228.4
Capital Expenditures incl.: 2,980.0 4,102.0 5,223.9 - Exploration: 510.0 702.0 894.0
- Development: 2,470.0 3,400.0 4,329.9Operation Expenditures: 6,654.5 9,561.2 12,687.6
Abandonment: 180.8 248.9 316.9
Results Summary - (Million US$)
Project: SampleLow Price Medium Price High Price
Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 3,545.2 9,972.0 16,398.8Min Mean Max
Market Value @ Medium Cost 418.5 558.1 697.6Cost Value @ Medium Cost 442.3 589.7 737.1
NOC: SampleLow Price Medium Price High Price
Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 3,102.2 7,245.9 11,389.6Min Mean Max
Market Value @ Medium Cost 125.6 167.4 209.3Cost Value @ Medium Cost 132.7 176.9 221.1
IOC-1: SampleLow Price Medium Price High Price
Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 284.7 1,752.5 3,220.2Min Mean Max
Market Value @ Medium Cost 188.3 251.1 313.9Cost Value @ Medium Cost 199.0 265.4 331.7
IOC-2: SampleLow Price Medium Price High Price
Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 158.2 973.6 1,789.0Min Mean Max
Market Value @ Medium Cost 104.6 139.5 174.4Cost Value @ Medium Cost 110.6 147.4 184.3
IOC-3: N/ALow Price Medium Price High Price
Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 0.0 0.0 0.0Min Mean Max
Market Value @ Medium Cost 0.0 0.0 0.0Cost Value @ Medium Cost 0.0 0.0 0.0
B a y p h a s e
Geologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts
Est.19
86
PRODUCTION PROFILE41 Field: Sample
Status: Non-producingField Type: Gas Field
Rec. Remaining Reserve OIL (Million Bbl): 0.0 Increasing Step (bbl/day): 0 Recoverable Remaining Reserve GAS (Billion scf): 5,000.0Average Declining Rate (%): 0.8% Increasing Step (Million scf/Day): 900.0 Average Declining Rate (%): ##########
Plateau Production Rate (%): Number of Phases: 1 Plateau Production Rate (%): 6.6%Plateau Production OIL (Barrels/day): Plateau Production BOE (Barrels/day): 150 Plateau Production GAS (Million scf/day):
Total Production OIL (Million Bbl): 5.0 Total Production BOE (Million Barrels): 838.3 Total Production GAS (Billion scf): 5,000.0Current Production OIL (Barrels/day): GOR: Current Production GAS (Million scf/Day):
Daily Production (Oil Barrels and Million SCF)2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
0 0 0 0 450 450 450 900 900 900 842 788 738 691 646 605 566 530 496 464 434 407 380 356 333 312 292 273 256 2390.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 450.0 450.0 450.0 900.0 900.0 900.0 842.3 788.3 737.8 690.5 646.3 604.9 566.1 529.8 495.9 464.1 434.3 406.5 380.5 356.1 333.3 311.9 291.9 273.2 255.7 239.30 0 0 0 75,450 75,450 75,450 150,900 150,900 150,900 141,229 132,178 123,707 115,779 108,359 101,415 94,915 88,833 83,140 77,811 72,825 68,158 63,790 59,701 55,875 52,294 48,943 45,806 42,871 40,123
#DIV/0!
0
0
0.0
900.0
#DIV/0!
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
BO
PD
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1,000.0
Mill
ion
SCFD
OilBOEGas
B a y p h a seGeologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts
Est.19
86
COST PROFILEProject: Algeria Financial Report
Field: Sample
Legend Key: Blue - Low Cost Scenario; Red - Medium Cost Scenario; Green - High Cost Scenario
B a y p h a se
Geologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts
Est. 19
86
Total Costs (Million USD)
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Mill
ion
US$
0.0
5000.0
10000.0
15000.0
20000.0
25000.0
30000.0
35000.0
40000.0
45000.0Exploration Costs (Million USD)
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Mill
ion
US$
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
Development Costs (Million USD)
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Mill
ion
US$
0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
10000.0
12000.0Operation Costs (Million USD)
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Mill
ion
US$
0.0
5000.0
10000.0
15000.0
20000.0
25000.0
30000.0
35000.0
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Cost Scenario: LOW
NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRRLOW 7,186.8 17.2% 5,214.0 39.7% 1,268.2 8.5% 704.6 8.5% 0.0 N/A
MEDIM 13,613.6 28.6% 9,357.7 66.5% 2,735.9 16.1% 1,520.0 16.1% 0.0 N/AHIGH 20,040.4 38.3% 13,501.3 94.9% 4,203.7 22.3% 2,335.4 22.3% 0.0 N/A
Total Average: 13,613.6 28.0% 9,357.7 67.0% 2,735.9 15.6% 1,520.0 15.6% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cost Scenario: MEDIUM
NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRRLOW 3,545.2 7.1% 3,102.2 20.3% 284.7 1.5% 158.2 1.5% 0.0 N/A
MEDIM 9,972.0 17.0% 7,245.9 39.0% 1,752.5 8.4% 973.6 8.4% 0.0 N/AHIGH 16,398.8 25.4% 11,389.6 58.0% 3,220.2 14.0% 1,789.0 14.0% 0.0 N/A
Total Average: 9,972.0 16.5% 7,245.9 39.1% 1,752.5 8.0% 973.6 8.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cost Scenario: HIGH
NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRRLOW -291.6 N/A 1,545.2 9.7% -1,180.8 N/A -656.0 N/A 0.0 N/A
MEDIM 6,135.2 9.0% 5,018.2 23.5% 718.1 2.9% 398.9 2.9% 0.0 N/AHIGH 12,562.0 16.5% 9,161.9 37.9% 2,185.8 8.1% 1,214.3 8.1% 0.0 N/A
Total Average: 9,348.6 12.8% 5,241.8 23.7% 1,451.9 5.5% 806.6 5.5% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Medium Price & Cost Scenario Graphic Presentations
Project Highlights Low Medium HighState 30.0% Sample Total Cost (Million US$): 9,634.5 13,663.2 17,911.5
IOC-1 45.0% Sample Exploration Cost (Million US$): 510.0 702.0 894.0IOC-2 25.0% Sample Development Cost (Million US$): 2,470.0 3,400.0 4,329.9IOC-3 0.0% N/A Operation Cost (Million US$): 6,654.5 9,561.2 12,687.6
Economic HighlightsOil (Million bbl): 0.0 Price Assumption Low Medium High Royalty (%): 12.5%-20.0%
Gas (Billion scf): 5,000.0 Oil Price ($/bbl): 40.0 70.0 100.0 Annual Income Tax (%): 30%-70%BOE (Million bbl): 835.0 Gas Price ($/1000Sm3): 125.0 175.0 225.0 Discount Factor Real (%): 12.5%
SUMMARY RESULTSAlgeria Financial Report
Project NOC IOC-1 IOC-2 IOC-3
IOC-3
Project NOC IOC-1Price Scenario
Price Scenario
IOC-2 IOC-3
Price ScenarioProject NOC IOC-1 IOC-2
B a y p h a s e
Geologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts
Est.19
86
Revenue & Costs
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
Mill
ion
USD
Gross Revenue
Total Cost
DCF
-800.0-600.0-400.0-200.0
0.0200.0400.0600.0800.0
1,000.01,200.0
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
Mill
ion
USD
ProjectNOCIOC-Group
Depreciation & CAPEX
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
Mill
ion
USD
CAPEXDepreciation
NPV9,972.0
7,245.9
1,752.5973.6
0.00.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
Project NOC IOC-1 IOC-2 IOC-3
Mill
ion
USD
SampleMARKET APPROACH
MVAS: Pessimistic (25/50)
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min MaxLOW 262.0 524.0 78.6 157.2 117.9 235.8 65.5 131.0 0.0 0.0
MEDIM 232.5 465.0 69.8 139.5 104.6 209.3 58.1 116.3 0.0 0.0HIGH 212.4 424.9 63.7 127.5 95.6 191.2 53.1 106.2 0.0 0.0
Total Average: 235.7 471.3 70.7 141.4 106.0 212.1 58.9 117.8 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
MVAS: Realistic (45/75)
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min MaxLOW 471.6 786.1 141.5 235.8 212.2 353.7 117.9 196.5 0.0 0.0
MEDIM 418.5 697.6 125.6 209.3 188.3 313.9 104.6 174.4 0.0 0.0HIGH 382.4 637.3 114.7 191.2 172.1 286.8 95.6 159.3 0.0 0.0
Total Average: 424.2 707.0 127.3 212.1 190.9 318.1 106.0 176.7 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
MVAS: Optimistic (65/90)
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min MaxLOW 681.3 943.3 204.4 283.0 306.6 424.5 170.3 235.8 0.0 0.0
MEDIM 604.6 837.1 181.4 251.1 272.1 376.7 151.1 209.3 0.0 0.0HIGH 552.3 764.7 165.7 229.4 248.5 344.1 138.1 191.2 0.0
Total Average: 612.7 848.4 183.8 254.5 275.7 381.8 153.2 212.1 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Realisitic Market Value Adjustment & Medium Cost Scenario Value Diagram
Project Highlights Low Medium HighState 30.0% Sample Total Cost (Million US$): 9,634.5 13,663.2 17,911.5
IOC-1 45.0% Sample Exploration Cost (Million US$): 510.0 702.0 894.0IOC-2 25.0% Sample Development Cost (Million US$): 2,470.0 3,400.0 4,329.9IOC-3 0.0% N/A Operation Cost (Million US$): 6,654.5 9,561.2 12,687.6
Economic HighlightsOil (Million bbl): 0.0 Producing Base Price (US$/BOE): 5.3
Gas (Billion scf): 5,000.0 Non-Producing Base Price (US$/BOE): 1.2BOE (Million bbl): 835.0 Field Factor: 1.20
IOC-2 IOC-3
Cost ScenarioProject
Cost ScenarioProject NOC IOC-1
NOC IOC-1
SUMMARY RESULTSAlgeria Financial Report
IOC-2 IOC-3
IOC-2 IOC-3Cost Scenario
Project NOC IOC-1
B a y p h a se
Geologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts
Est.19
86
418.5
697.6
125.6
209.3 188.3
313.9
104.6174.4
0.0 0.00.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max
Project NOC IOC-1 IOC-2 IOC-3
Mill
ion
USD
SampleCOST APPROACH
MVAS: Pessimistic (25/50)
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min MaxLOW 165.8 331.5 49.7 99.5 74.6 149.2 41.4 82.9 0.0 0.0
MEDIM 245.7 491.4 73.7 147.4 110.6 221.1 61.4 122.9 0.0 0.0HIGH 335.3 670.5 100.6 201.2 150.9 301.7 83.8 167.6 0.0 0.0
Total Average: 248.9 497.8 74.7 149.3 112.0 224.0 62.2 124.5 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
MVAS: Realistic (45/75)
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min MaxLOW 298.4 497.3 89.5 149.2 134.3 223.8 74.6 124.3 0.0 0.0
MEDIM 442.3 737.1 132.7 221.1 199.0 331.7 110.6 184.3 0.0 0.0HIGH 603.5 1,005.8 181.0 301.7 271.6 452.6 150.9 251.4 0.0 0.0
Total Average: 448.0 746.7 134.4 224.0 201.6 336.0 112.0 186.7 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
MVAS: Optimistic (65/90)
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min MaxLOW 431.0 596.7 129.3 179.0 193.9 268.5 107.7 149.2 0.0 0.0
MEDIM 638.8 884.5 191.7 265.4 287.5 398.0 159.7 221.1 0.0 0.0HIGH 871.7 1,206.9 261.5 362.1 392.3 543.1 217.9 301.7 0.0
Total Average: 647.2 896.1 194.1 268.8 291.2 403.2 161.8 224.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Realisitic Market Value Adjustment & Medium Cost Scenario Value Diagram
Project Highlights Low Medium HighState 30.0% Sample Total Cost (Million US$): 9,634.5 13,663.2 17,911.5
IOC-1 45.0% Sample Exploration Cost (Million US$): 510.0 702.0 894.0IOC-2 25.0% Sample Development Cost (Million US$): 2,470.0 3,400.0 4,329.9IOC-3 0.0% N/A Operation Cost (Million US$): 6,654.5 9,561.2 12,687.6
Economic HighlightsOil (Million bbl): 0.0 Total Exploration Low Cost Scenario (Million $): 510.00
Gas (Billion scf): 5,000.0 Total Exploration Medium Cost Scenario (Million $): 702.02BOE (Million bbl): 835.0 Total Exploration High Cost Scenario (Million $): 894.03
IOC-2 IOC-3Cost Scenario
Project NOC IOC-1
SUMMARY RESULTSAlgeria Financial Report
IOC-2 IOC-3
IOC-2 IOC-3
Cost ScenarioProject
Cost ScenarioProject NOC IOC-1
NOC IOC-1
B a y p h a s e
Geologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts
Est.19
86
442.3
737.1
132.7
221.1 199.0
331.7
110.6
184.3
0.0 0.00.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max
Project NOC IOC-1 IOC-2 IOC-3
Mill
ion
USD
Bayp
hase
Limite
dAddress: St George’s House
Knoll Road Camberley SurreyGU15 3SY
Telephone: +44 (0) 1276 682828
Fax: +44 (0) 1276 63334
Web: www.bayphase.com
Bayphase
Geologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts
Est.1986
Summary, Rev1, 29 December 2009.pdfAlgeria Financial Report Booklet - Unprotected, Rev 0, 11 January 2010.pdfAlgeria Financial Report Booklet - Unprotected, Rev 0, 11 January 2010.pdfAlgeria Strategic Report Booklet, Rev 2, 25 June 2008.pdfFront.pdfSample.pdfBACK.pdf
Key.pdf
Sample, Rev1, 29 December 2009.pdf
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