Policy Research Working Paper 6501

Aid, Disbursement Delays, and the Real Exchange Rate

Alexandra JarotschkinAart Kraay

The World BankDevelopment Research GroupMacroeconomics and Growth TeamMay 2013

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Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Policy Research Working Paper 6501

Aid donors and recipients have long been concerned that aid inflows may lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and an associated loss of competitiveness. This paper provides new evidence of the dynamic effects of aid on the real exchange rate, using an identification strategy that exploits the long delays between the approval of aid projects and the subsequent disbursements on

This paper is a product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at akraay@worldbank.org.

them. These disbursement delays enable the isolation of a source of variation in aid inflows that is uncorrelated with contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks that may drive both aid and the real exchange rate. Using this predetermined component of aid as an instrument, there is little evidence that aid inflows lead to significant real exchange rate appreciations.

Aid, Disbursement Delays, and the Real Exchange Rate

Alexandra Jarotschkin Aart Kraay*

The World Bank

JEL Classification Codes: F31, F35 Keywords: aid, real exchange rates, Dutch disease _____________________________________________________________________________________* Corresponding author, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, akraay@worldbank.org. We are grateful to Oscàr Jordà and Luis Serven for helpful comments, and to Nanasamudd Chhim, Evis Rucaj, Shelley Lai Fu, and Ibrahim Levent for their assistance with the Debtor Reporting System data used in this paper. Financial support from the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP) of the World Bank is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed here are the authors' and do not reflect those of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.

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1. Introduction

A perennial concern among aid donors and recipient country policymakers is that aid inflows

may have adverse side effects on recipient countries. One of these is that large aid inflows lead to

upward pressure on the real exchange rate, and an associated loss of competitiveness in the export

sector, which could in principle undermine the growth benefits of aid. In this paper, we provide new

empirical evidence on the short- to medium-run impacts of aid on the real exchange rate, in a large

annual panel of 104 developing countries over the period 1979-20101. We use the local projections

method suggested by Jordà (2005) to flexibly describe the dynamic response of real exchange rates to

aid inflows. Our basic findings are easily summarized: a one percentage point increase in aid as a

fraction of GDP leads to a small and statistically-significant real depreciation of about 0.5 percent on

impact, which gradually reverses over time to a small, but statistically insignificant, real appreciation of

about 0.5 percent after five years. These findings cast doubt on the view that substantial real

appreciations are a likely adverse side effect of aid for recipient countries. If anything, they mirror the

theoretical ambiguities about the potential effects of aid on the real exchange rate, that we discuss in

more detail below.

An important methodological challenge in isolating the impact of aid on the real exchange rate

is that aid inflows are not randomly assigned to recipient countries. Rather, fluctuations in aid within

countries over time may very well respond to macroeconomic shocks that also matter for the real

exchange rate. For example, a macroeconomic crisis might lead to a large depreciation in the nominal

exchange rate, and, given some price stickiness, also the real exchange rate. If the country experiencing

the crisis also receives aid inflows in response to the crisis, this would create a spurious correlation

between real depreciations and aid inflows. Similarly, a period of poor macroeconomic policy

performance leading to high inflation might lead to a real appreciation, and at the same time cause

donors who tie aid to policy performance to reduce their aid.

We address these endogeneity concerns by constructing a predetermined component of aid

associated with past approvals of loans from official creditors to developing country governments, that

can be used as an instrument for overall aid. Official creditors include multilateral aid agencies such as

the World Bank, African Development Bank, and Asian Development Bank, as well as major bilateral aid

agencies. Disbursements on concessional loans from official creditors are an important form of aid to 1 The main data constraint is the multilateral trade-weighted real exchange rate (IMF) that is only available from 1979 whereas the other core variables are available from 1970 onwards.

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developing country governments. We take advantage of the fact that disbursements on such loans

typically are spread out over several years following the approval of the loan. This is because these

loans often finance specific multiyear development spending projects in recipient countries, and official

creditors typically tie their disbursements to stages of project implementation. This in turn implies that

the majority of disbursements in a given country-year are associated with aid projects approved in many

previous years, and prior to the realization of contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks.

The delays between aid approvals and eventual disbursements can be used to isolate a

predetermined component of aid. Following Kraay (2012b), we combine actual loan approvals with

typical loan disbursement profiles to construct a synthetic measure of disbursements on loans from

official creditors to a given country in a given year, that reflects only loan approvals made in previous

years. Under the plausible identifying assumption that official creditors' loan approval decisions do not

anticipate future macroeconomic shocks, this measure is a valid instrument in a regression of the real

exchange rate on aid.

We clearly are not the first to study the effects of aid on real exchange rates. As we discuss in

more detail in the following section, many studies have offered theoretical qualifications to the basic

mechanism, pointing out that the effect of aid on the real exchange rate is theoretically ambiguous, and

depends on how aid is spent, on the structure of the aid-receiving economy, and on the nature of the

macroeconomic policy response to the aid inflow. Several empirical papers, also summarized below,

have deployed a range of techniques in different samples of developing countries to attempt to tease

out the relationships between aid and the real exchange rate in the data. Our main contribution to this

literature is to propose a more careful strategy for isolating a predetermined component of aid flows

that can be used to more credibly identify the response of the real exchange rate to aid inflows. In

addition, our use of local projections allows a much more flexible approach to characterizing the

dynamic response of the real exchange rate to aid inflows.

The rest of this paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 provides more background on the

mechanisms linking aid inflows and the real exchange rate, and briefly reviews the existing empirical

evidence. Section 3 presents our empirical framework and describes the data sources. Section 4 reports

benchmark results, and Sections 5 and 6 extend them in various directions. Section 7 concludes.

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2. Background and Related Literature

The basic mechanism through which aid inflows may lead to a real appreciation is well-

understood. If aid inflows are spent primarily on non-traded goods, this will bid up the relative price of

non-tradeables. Since tradeables prices are fixed by global conditions, this implies an increase in the

domestic price level and a real exchange rate appreciation. The real appreciation will be larger the more

inelastic is the supply of non-traded goods, and the larger is the fraction of the aid inflow that is spent

on non-traded goods.

It is important to note that such a real appreciation by itself does not imply that the aid-

receiving country is worse off. The country benefits from the initial resource transfer, and the real

appreciation simply reflects the transfer of resources from the traded to the non-traded sector. After

the aid inflow has been spent, resources shift back to their initial allocation. If, however, one assumes

further that there is learning-by-doing or some other production externality in the traded sector, then

the temporary shift in production away from tradeables can have a persistent negative effect on

productivity in the traded sector. If this effect is strong enough, the country might actually be worse off.

Corden and Neary (1982) and van Wijnbergen (1986) provide early theoretical accounts of this basic

mechanism, often referred to as the "Dutch Disease" in reference to the decline of the manufacturing

sector in the Netherlands following its discovery of offshore gas reserves in the late 1950s. Variants on

this idea include Adam (2006) who argues that when domestic financial markets are shallow, firms in the

traded sector may not be able to obtain the financing that they need to bridge a period of temporarily

lower profits during the real appreciation. More generally, any domestic distortion that makes it costly

to shift resources from the traded sector to the non-traded sector will offset the benefit of the initial aid

inflow.

Several authors have qualified this basic mechanism in different dimensions. For example,

Torvik (2001), Adam (2006), Hussain et. al. (2009), and Temple (2010) all observe that if aid-financed

public spending also raises productivity in the non-tradeable sector (for example, by providing needed

infrastructure), then this positive supply response will offset the basic mechanism underlying the real

appreciation. Adam (2006) also notes that the impact of aid on the real exchange rate will be muted if

there is excess capacity in the non-tradeables sector, so that the increase in demand for non-tradeables

can be met with little increase in their relative price. Another basic consideration noted by Hussain et.

al. (2009) and Adam (2006) is whether aid is spent or not. In principle, aid recipients may simply save

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the aid, or use the proceeds of aid to reduce taxes, so that there is no direct aid-induced increase in

spending on nontradeables that might contribute to a real overvaluation.

Perhaps reflecting these theoretical ambiguities, empirical evidence on the effects of aid inflows

on the real exchange rate is mixed. Referring to the existing evidence at the time, Bulir and Lane (2002)

note that is has uncovered "traces" of aid-induced real appreciations. For example, Yano and Nugent

(1999) estimate OLS regressions of real exchange rates on aid for 44 aid-dependent countries, for the

period 1970-1990. They find that 21 countries display an appreciation and 23 display a depreciation,

with the estimated effects in either direction being rarely statistically significant. On the other hand,

Elbadawi (1999) estimates OLS regressions of the real exchange rate on aid in a sample of 62 countries

between 1970 and 1996, and finds a very small but statistically significant effect: a 35 percent increase

in aid increases the real exchange rate by just three percent.

More recent studies also show mixed evidence. Hussain et. al. (2009) present case studies of

five African economies experiencing surges in aid inflows, and show that there is no evidence of

subsequent real appreciations. On the other hand, Prati, Sahay, and Tressel (2003) estimate the effect

of aid on a more sophisticated measure of the real exchange rate which replaces official nominal

exchange rates with black market exchange rates. Using dynamic panel estimation techniques, they find

a small but statistically significant impact elasticity of the real exchange rate to aid of just four percent,

and up to 18 percent after five years. In contrast, Christiansen, Prati, Ricci and Tressel (2009) document

a negative long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and aid, suggesting that aid in the long

term leads to larger productivity gains in the non-traded sector than in the traded sector. Finally, Rajan

and Subramanian (2011) find a positive relationship between a measure of real overvaluation and aid

inflows in a cross-sectional regression using decadal averages of the two variables. They also provide

evidence that labor-intensive industries (which they equate with tradeables) grow more slowly in

countries which receive more aid.

3. Empirical Methodology and Data

We use the local projections method suggested by Jordà (2005) to flexibly document the

dynamic response of real exchange rates to aid inflows. We work with annual data on aid inflows and

real exchange rates for a large panel of 104 developing countries over the past 32 years. Our starting

point is a very parsimonious sequence of local projection regressions:

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(1) 𝑟𝑥𝑟𝑖,𝑡+ℎ = �𝜌𝑠ℎ 𝑟𝑥𝑟𝑖,𝑡−𝑠

𝑝

𝑠=1

+ 𝛽ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡 + 𝜇𝑖ℎ + 𝜆𝑡ℎ + 𝜀𝑖𝑡ℎ

where 𝑟𝑥𝑟𝑖,𝑡 is the log-level of the real exchange rate; 𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡 is foreign aid as a share of GDP; 𝜇𝑖ℎ and 𝜆𝑡ℎ

are country and year effects; 𝜀𝑖𝑡ℎ is an error term capturing all other sources of variation in the real

exchange rate between 𝑡 and 𝑡 + ℎ; and 𝑖 and 𝑡 index countries and years, respectively. The coefficients

on aid, 𝛽ℎ, trace out the effect of an increase in aid at time 𝑡 on the real exchange rate at time 𝑡 + ℎ.

Given that aid is measured as a fraction of GDP, and the real exchange rate is measured in logarithms,

the estimated coefficients on aid measure the percentage change in the real exchange rate at time 𝑡 + ℎ

in response to a one percentage point of GDP increase in aid at time 𝑡.

The key insight in Jordà (2005) is that these local projection regressions are a more flexible way

of characterizing the dynamic response of variables to a shock than the impulse responses obtained

from inverting an autoregressive distributed lag model (or more generally, a vector autoregression). To

give a very simple example, suppose that we estimated the following process for the real exchange rate

as a function of aid:

(2) 𝑟𝑥𝑟𝑖,𝑡 = 𝛾𝑟𝑥𝑟𝑖,𝑡−1 + 𝛽𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡 + 𝜇𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡

This process implies an impulse response of the real exchange to an increase in aid that is of a very

particular functional form:

(3) 𝜕𝑟𝑥𝑟𝑖,𝑡+ℎ𝜕𝑎𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑡

= 𝛽𝛾ℎ

In contrast, the local projection regressions in Equation (1) do not place any restrictions on the shape of

the estimated impulse response, and so are much more robust to misspecification of the underlying

stochastic process for the real exchange rate. Of course, if the true data generating process is given by

Equation (2), then the impulse responses based on Equations (1) and (3) will coincide.

In our context, an additional complication comes from the fact that it does not make sense to

think of aid as a strictly exogenous shock in Equation (1). In particular, one might worry that aid inflows

into a country respond to various macroeconomic shocks in the recipient country, and that these shocks

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also have some direct impact on the real exchange rate. For example, policy reforms that improve

productivity in the nontradeables sector might contribute to a real depreciation, and in addition prompt

more aid inflows from donors that tie aid to policy performance, implying that 𝐸[𝑎𝑖𝑡𝜀𝑖𝑡] ≠ 0. In this

case, OLS estimates of the local projections regressions will not deliver a consistent estimate of the

effects of aid on the real exchange rate at various horizons.2

We address this endogeneity problem using an instrument developed in Kraay (2012b). The

instrument exploits the fact that there are long lags between the approval and eventual full

disbursement on individual aid projects in developing countries that are financed by concessional loans

from official creditors. Such concessional loans are a major vehicle for providing aid to developing

countries. They typically finance specific aid projects that take many years to implement, and the

disbursements usually are tied to the stages of project implementation, rather than disbursing all at

once upon loan approval. These disbursement delays can be used to isolate a component of

disbursements in a given country-year that is associated with project and loan approval decisions made

in previous years, before contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks are known.

The key identifying assumption is that, while loan approval decisions may respond to current

and past macroeconomic shocks, they do not respond to future shocks. If, in addition, loans disbursed

as scheduled at the time of approval, then subsequent disbursements on these loans would be

uncorrelated with contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks. However, as discussed in more detail in

Kraay (2012a,b), this additional assumption is not very plausible, as disbursement decisions on existing

loans are made in real time, and may very well respond to contemporaneous shocks. Instead, we rely

on a synthetic measure of predicted disbursements, which combines actual loan approvals with "typical"

disbursement rates for other loans from the same creditor, in the same region and decade. As a result,

the only country-specific variation in predicted disbursements comes from loan approvals from previous

years. Conditional on the identifying assumption that these do not respond to future shocks, predicted

2 Another potential source of endogeneity is the correlation between the lags of the dependent variable and the unobserved country effect in the error term, which we control for using country fixed effects. This correlation becomes negligible as the time series dimension becomes large. Monte Carlo evidence in Judson and Owen (1999) suggests a bias in the fixed effects estimator of only about 1-3% of the true value of 𝛽 when 𝑇 = 20 (their Table 1). While they do report larger biases in the fixed-effects estimator of the coefficient on the lagged dependent variable of 12-17% of the true parameter value, this parameter is not our main interest. In our setting, the median number of time series observations per country is 𝑇 = 28

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disbursements in a given country-year associated with past loan approvals will be uncorrelated with

contemporaneous shocks and will thus be a valid instrument for aid. 3

We therefore estimate the local projection regressions in Equation (1) by two-stage least

squares, using predicted disbursements on loans from official creditors, expressed as a share of GDP, as

an instrument for aid. Since the set of right-hand-side variables in the local projection regressions is the

same for all projection horizons, there is just one first-stage regression of aid on the instrument, lags of

the real exchange rate, and of course country and year fixed effects. As we will document in the

following sections, predicted disbursements on loans from official creditors has very strong predictive

power for actual aid, implying a strong first-stage relationship.

The main aid variable of interest is the standard measure of net official development assitance

(ODA) reported by the OECD's Development Assistance Committee. Net ODA consists of disbursements

on concessional loans and disbursements on grants, and nets out repayments on past concessional

loans. By design, the instrument described above will only have predictive power for the first

component of aid, disbursements on concessional loans.4 However, as we shall see below, despite this

limitation the instrument has very strong predictive power for overall aid. Finally, our benchmark

measure of the real exchange rate is the IMF's trade-weighted multilateral real exchange rate. This is

oriented such that an increase (decrease) corresponds to an appreciation (depreciation). We rebase

these so that the real exchange rate index is equal to 100 in 2005 for each country. This implies that

only within-country over-time fluctuations in the real exchange rate are economically meaningful, and

accordingly in all our empirical specifications that follow we include a full set of country fixed effects.

3 The predicted disbursements instrument is constructed as follows. We start with a set of approximately 60,000 loans from official creditors to developing country governments, as recorded in the Debtor Reporting System database of the World Bank. For each loan we have the year of the original commitment, and the schedule of subsequent annual actual disbursements. For each loan we construct a 10-yeardisbursement profile, i.e. the fraction of the original commitment that is disbursed in year 0, 1,2,...,10, with year zero corresponding to the approval year of the loan. We next sort loans into creditor-decade-region-specific bins and average disbursement profiles across loans within bins. We then apply these typical disbursement profiles to individual loans within each bin, and construct predicted disbursements for each loan, i.e. the disbursements that would have occured had the loan disbursed at the typical rate for all loans in the same bin. The rationale for this step is that it removes any country-specific source of variation in actual disbursements on previously approved loans, which might respond endogenously to contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks. Finally, we aggregate the predicted disbursements across all loans for each country-year observation, but excluding loans approved in the same year. By construction, the only country-specific variation in this predicted disbursements measure reflects loan approval decisions from previous years, which we assume to be uncorrelated with contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks. For details, see Sections 2 and 3 of Kraay (2012b). 4 A companion paper, Kraay (2013) extends the methodology in Kraay (2012a,b) to develop an analogous instrument for grant-financed aid.

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Table 1 reports summary statistics on aid, the instrument, and the logarithm of the real

exchange rate. Net ODA and the instrument are scaled by GDP as defined in Equation (1). In addition,

country- and year-specific means are removed before calculating summary statistics, in order to be

consistent with the empirical specifications that follow, all of which will also control for a full set of

country and year dummies. Summary statistics are shown for three samples of countries. Our core

regression sample consists of all country-year observations for which the current and two lagged values

of the real exchange rate are available, net ODA is available, and there are at least 15 such annual

observations for the country. Overall, this sample consists of 104 countries. The second sample consists

of those countries where net ODA as a fraction of GDP is at least 6%, averaging over all annual

observations. This sample encompasses 53 countries. The third sample consists of those countries in

the full sample that are eligible for borrowing from the International Development Association, the

concessional lending arm of the World Bank, and consists of 58 countries.

Within-country fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate and aid are quite volatile in all

three samples, with standard deviations ranging from 11 to 12 percent, and from 4 to 6 percent,

respectively. In contrast, the instrument based on predicted disbursements is considerably less volatile,

at around 1 percent. Fluctuations in aid and the instrument are quite strongly correlated within

countries over time, with correlations ranging from 0.37 to 0.39, depending on the sample. The

strength of this first-stage relationship will of course be crucial to the success of the identification

strategy.

4. Benchmark Results

Table 2 reports the benchmark estimates of the effect of aid on the real exchange rate using

Equation (1). Panel A of Table 2 reports the OLS estimates of the impulse response of the real exchange

rate to a one-year, one percent of GDP increase in aid, over a five-year horizon, i.e. 𝛽ℎ for ℎ = 0,1, … ,5.

In each local projection regression, we set the number of lags of the real exchange rate to 𝑝 = 2.

However, to conserve on space, we report these estimated autoregressive terms only for the ℎ = 0 local

projection regression. The three sets of columns correspond to the three different samples: the full

sample, the high aid sample, and the IDA sample.

The OLS estimates of the impulse responses are quite similar across the three different samples.

On impact, following a one percentage point of GDP increase in aid, there is a small but fairly precisely

estimated real depreciation, between 0.23 and 0.26 percent, with standard errors around 0.08 percent.

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Over time, there is a gradual appreciation, and after 5 years the real exchange rate is slightly

appreciated relative to the initial period when the increase in aid occurred, in the high-aid and IDA

samples of countries. However, this small real appreciation is not significantly different from zero.

Panel B of Table 2 reports the 2SLS estimates of the impulse responses. Qualitatively, the

pattern that emerges from these is similar to the OLS estimates in Panel A. On impact, there is a small

but statistically significant depreciation, that gradually reverses into a small appreciation after five years.

The estimated impulse response is steeper, with an initial depreciation of around 0.5 percent following a

one percentage point increase in aid as a share of GDP, and ultimately an appreciation of 0.6 to 0.7

percent after five years. As with the OLS estimates, only the initial depreciation is statistically significant

at conventional levels. While the 2SLS estimates of the impulse response point to a more pronounced

effect of aid on the real exchange rate than do the OLS estimates, the difference between the two is

small relative to the estimated standard errors, suggesting that the overall effect of various potential

endogeneity biases in the OLS estimates is small.

An important methodological challenge in isolating the impact of aid on the real exchange rate

is that aid inflows are not randomly assigned to recipient countries. Rather, fluctuations in aid within

countries over time may very well respond to macroeconomic shocks that also matter for the real

exchange rate. For example, a macroeconomic crisis might lead to a large depreciation in the nominal

exchange rate, and, given some price stickiness, also the real exchange rate. If the country experiencing

the crisis also receives aid inflows in response to the crisis, this would create a spurious correlation

between real depreciations and aid inflows. Similarly, a period of poor macroeconomic policy

performance leading to high inflation might lead to a real appreciation, and at the same time cause

donors who tie aid to policy performance to reduce their aid.

While the effects of aid on the real exchange rate are not statistically significant from zero, this

is not because they are very imprecisely estimated. The standard errors associated with the 2SLS

estimates of the impulse response, although naturally somewhat larger than the OLS estimates, are at

most only around 0.5 after five years. This means that our data and methodology are sufficiently

informative that a one percent real appreciation after five years in response to a one percentage point

of GDP increase in aid would be statistically significantly different from zero. The reasonable precision

of the 2SLS estimates is in part due to the strong fit of the first-stage regressions, summarized at the

bottom of Table 2. The first stage relationships between net ODA and predicted disbursements on loans

from official creditors are very precisely estimated in all three samples, with F-statistics for the excluded

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instrument ranging from 49 to 71, far above the Staiger and Stock (1997) rule of thumb of 10. In

addition, Figure 2 provides a visual summary of the first-stage and reduced-form regressions underlying

the estimated effects in Table 2, for the full sample of countries. A quick look at this graph confirms that

our findings are not driven by a few extreme observations, but rather reflect reasonably systematic

patterns in the data.

The validity of the 2SLS estimates of the impulse response depends crucially on the identifying

assumption that aid approval decisions in past years are uncorrelated with contemporaneous and future

shocks that drive the real exchange rate. There are (at least) two immediate objections to this

identifying assumption. The first is that there may be common country-specific trends in aid approvals

and the real exchange rate. For example, as a country develops, we might expect both (i) a trend

appreciation in the real exchange rate, to the extent that Balassa-Samuleson effects are important, and

(ii) a reduction in approval of aid projects as the country's need for foreign aid declines over time. To

address this concern, we re-estimated the specifications in Table 2 including country-specific linear time

trends. This has virtually no effect on the estimated impulse responses in our benchmark specification,

suggesting that this possibility of omitted common trends in the instrument and the real exchange rate

is not undermining the validity of the identification strategy.

The second potential objection is that aid-financed projects might crowd in (or crowd out) other

forms of government spending. If government spending falls disproportionately on non-tradeables,

then these fluctuations in non-aid-financed government spending induced by approvals of aid-financed

projects might have direct effects on the real exchange rate, again potentially violating the exclusion

restriction. We investigate this possibility directly by regressing non-aid-financed government spending

(i.e. total government spending less ODA) on the instrument, including both country and year fixed

effects. We find that non-aid-financed government spending is not very significantly correlated with the

predicted disbursements instrument: the F-statistic on the instrument is only 7.3 in the full sample, 4.4

in the IDA sample, and 4.5 in the high-aid sample. This suggests that, although other forms of

government spending might matter for the exchange rate, their omission from our benchmark

specification is unlikely to result in a major violation of the exclusion restriction.

In summary, our benchmark specification suggests a fairly clear pattern. Aid inflows are

associated with a small but significant real depreciation in impact. Over time, this gradually turns into

small real appreciation that is not significantly different from zero. In the next two sections we subject

this benchmark finding to a variety of robustness checks.

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5. Basic Robustness Checks

In this section of the paper we present a number of straighforward variations on our benchmark

specification in order to verify the robustness of these findings. A first potential concern with the

benchmark results in the previous section is that they could be driven by a small number of influential

observations. This concern is particularly important given the large swings in aid and the real exchange

rate documented in Table 1. To verify that our results are not sensitive to a few country-year

observations, we use an approach suggested in Hadi (1992) to identify influential observations in the

reduced-form and the first-stage regressions (the ratio of the corresponding two slope coefficients at

each horizon being the 2SLS estimates of the impulse response). This first basic robustness check is

reported in the first panel of Table 3. This procedure identifes 75 (38) (41) influential observations in the

full (high aid) (IDA) samples, or only about 3 percent of the total number of observations. Moreover, the

estimated impulse responses change only minimally from the benchmark specification when these

observations are excluded. The main notable difference is that the strength of the first-stage

relationship increases, particularly in the full sample where the first-stage F-statistic increases from 71

to 116.

As a second robustness check, we vary the number of lags of the real effective exchange rate

included in the local projections regressions. In the benchmark specification, we included two lags of

the real exchange rate, as the first and second lags are consistently significant across all the

specifications we considered. In the second panel of Table 3, we report the estimated impulse obtained

when a third lag of the real exchange rate is included. Once again, the estimated impulse responses are

practically indistinguishable from the benchmark estimates. We note also that the coefficient on the

third lag of the real exchange rate is not significantly different from zero, providing some justification for

the inclusion of only two lags in our benchmark specification.

We next consider a more conservative version of our identification strategy. Recall that the key

identifying assumption underlying the predicted disbursements instrument is that loan approvals in a

given year do not anticipate macroeconomic shocks in subsequent years. Conditional on this

assumption, predicted disbursements on loans approved in previous years are uncorrelated with

contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks. In the third panel of Table 3, we make the weaker

assumption that loan approvals may react to macroeconomic shocks in same year and the following

year, but not two or more years into the future. We then construct an alternative version of the

instrument which excludes predicted disbursements on loans approved in the same and previous year.

13

Once again, this variation has little effect on the estimated impulse responses, which are very similar to

those in the benchmark specification.

In our benchmark results, we use the IMF's trade-weighted multilateral real exchange rate. As a

further robustness check, we investigate how our results change if we instead use the more widely-

available bilateral real exchange rate, based on nominal exchange rates relative to the US and relative

price levels as measured by GDP deflators. The results are shown in the bottom panel of Table 3.

While qualitatively the results are similar in this larger sample of observations, quantitatively the main

difference is in the contemporaneous effects which are substantially larger than in the benchmark. The

estimated impact of a one percent to GDP increase in aid is close to a one percent depreciation in the

exchange rate for the full country sample. Over time however, the impulse response becomes closer to

the benchmark specification, indicating a small and statistically insignificant real appreciation after 5

years.

Figure 3 provides a visual summary of these first basic robustness checks, in the full sample of

countries. It graphs the estimated impulse response and 95 percent confidence intervals in the

benchmark specification, and then superimposes the estimated impulse responses for the four

robustness checks reported in this section. A quick look at this graph confirms the discussion above --

across these four variations, changes estimated impulse responses relative to the benchmark

specification are minimal. In fact, with the exception of the estimated impact effect using the bilateral

real exchange rate, all of the estimated points along all impulse responses fall within the 95 percent

confidence intervals for the benchmark specification.

6. Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Regimes, and the Composition of Aid-Financed Spending

We next consider the interaction between monetary policy, the exchange rate regime, and the

composition of aid in determining the effect of aid inflows on the real exchange rate. Hussain et. al.

(2009) provide a comprehensive discussion of these interactions, which we briefly summarize here in

order to motivate several refinements of our basic specification. The two key considerations in

determining the effect of aid on the real exchange rate are the extent to which aid resources are

absorbed by the recipient economy, and the extent to which aid resources are spent. First, low

absorption occurs if central banks use the foreign exchange associated with financial (as opposed to in-

kind) aid receipts to accumulate domestic reserves, while high absorption occurs when central banks sell

14

the foreign exchange to domestic agents. Clearly, upward pressure on the exchange rate will only occur

if absorption is high.5 Second, to the extent that government spending increases in response to the aid

inflow, the effect on the real exchange rate will depend on whether it falls on nontradeables or

tradeables. For example, if most of the spending falls on imports, upward pressure on the real

exchange rate would be limited. However, to the extent that it falls on non-tradeables, and especially

those with a low elasticity of supply, it can bid up their relative price, leading to a real appreciation.

While these two mechanisms matter irrespective of the choice of exchange rate regime, the

channel of adjustment of the real exchange rate will be different. In the fixed exchange rate regime, the

adjustment will occur through increases in the domestic price level, while in a flexible exchange rate

regime the adjustment can occur through some combination of prices and the nominal exchange rate. If

the nominal exchange rate adjusts faster (slower) than the domestic price level, then the effect of aid on

the real exchange rate may occur sooner (later) in a flexible (fixed) exchange rate regime.

We modify our benchmark specifications in three directions in order to be able to assess these

considerations. In the first and second panels of Table 4 we estimate the impulse response of the real

exchange rate to aid, distinguishing between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. We use the

definitions and classification as suggested by Ilzetzki et al. (2012) to distinguish country-year

observations according to the exchange rate regime.6 For the fixed exchange rate regime, we find a

slightly stronger depreciation on impact than in the benchmark specification, and after five years we

find no significant impact on the real exchange rate. Under the flexible exchange rate regime, the initial

depreciation is similar in size to the benchmark estimates, but is much less precisely estimated and is

not significantly different from zero. After five years, we find a slightly smaller real appreciation than in

the benchmark specification. However, as in the benchmark specification, the real appreciation after

five years is not significantly different from zero.

In the high-aid and IDA samples, we find a similar pattern that the initial estimated real

depreciation is larger on impact in the fixed exchange rate regime when compared with the flexible

exchange rate regime. In both country samples, we find no significant effect of aid on the real exchange

5 In fact, see Korinek and Serven (2010) for a model in which governments can use reserve accumulation as a tool to undervalue the real exchange rate, in order to benefit from dynamic learning-by-doing effects in the production of tradeables. 6 We classify the exchange rate regime as fixed where their "coarse" measure is equal to 1 or 2, corresponding to fixed or slowly-crawling pegs, and flexible otherwise.

15

rate after 5 years. Moreover, the differences between the estimated responses in the two exchange

rate regimes are small relative to the estimated standard errors. Overall, the estimated long-run

response of the real exchange rate is very similar in the fixed and flexible nominal exchange rate

regimes, and even the larger initial depreciation in the flexible exchange rate regime falls within the

estimated 95 percent confidence interval for the benchmark estimate.

We next investigate the role of reserve accumulation in potentially obscuring aid-induced real

appreciations. Specifically, we augment our baseline specification with the change in net reserves,

expressed as a share of GDP. The results do not suggest that controlling for reserve accumulation

significantly changes the estimated impact of aid on the real effective exchange rate. We see barely any

difference in the size and significance of the estimated impulse response for the full sample. Only in the

high aid and IDA samples, we find a contemporaneous depreciation that is slightly smaller than in the

benchmark results and less significant.7

Finally, we consider the extent to which the composition of aid matters for its impact on the real

exchange rate. As discussed above, the most basic version of the theory suggests that aid resources

that are spent domestically will have a greater positive effect on the real exchange rate than aid that is

spent on imports. Unfortunately, it is difficult to observe this conceptual distinction clearly in the net

ODA data with which we work. This is because, while there is considerable detail on different types of

aid flows, they are not classified according to the location where they are spent. As a rough

approximation, we subtract out from net ODA three categories of aid that are more likely to end up

being spent on foreign goods and/or services: technical cooperation (which typically is used to purchase

the services of consultants from developed countries); development food aid (which most often is

delivered in kind and so does not involve domestic purchases in the recipient country); and

humanitarian assistance (which often also is used to purchase goods and services from rich countries

that can immediately be used for disaster relief). For the median country-year observation in the full

sample, these three categories account for 28% of aid, and for 21% and 23% of aid in the high aid and

7 Although not reported for reasons of space, we do find that reserve accumulation is negatively correlated with changes in the real exchange rate, although generally not significantly so. This is consistent with the mechanism discussed above: if capital inflows go to reserve accumulation rather than being spent domestically on non-tradeables, the effect on the real exchange rate will be smaller. Hence, when we control for reserve accumulation we eliminate this source of downward bias in the estimated effect of aid on the real exchange rate. Moreover, the significant result in horizon=3 in the IDA sample is driven by a handful of influential observations. Applying the Hadi procedure leads to a similar result as in the benchmark specification for this sample in this horizon but leaves the coefficient insignificant.

16

IDA samples. Our prior is that the remaining components of aid are more likely to be spent

domestically, and so may be more likely to have a positive effect on the real exchange rate.

The results are shown in the bottom panel of Table 4. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that the

estimated impulse responses are nearly identical to those in the benchmark specification, again showing

little evidence of a significant positive effect on the real exchange rate, even after 5 years. One

interpretation of this finding is that our rough distinction between different types of aid simply is not a

good proxy for the extent to which aid is spent domestically. Another interpretation is that, as noted

above, even domestically-spent aid need not lead to a real appreciation if it leads to a supply response

in the non-traded sector. Unfortunately, absent better data on where aid is spent, we cannot

distinguish between these two interpretations.

7. Conclusion

This paper provides new evidence on an old question: do aid inflows have the unintended

consequence of leading to a potentially-damaging real appreciation of the exchange rate? Our findings

suggest that this should not be a major concern for developing-country policymakers. We find that, on

impact, an additional aid inflow of one percentage point of GDP is associated with a small depreciation

of about 0.5 percentage points, and this is gradually reversed into a small real appreciation of about 0.5

percentage points after five years. With the exception of the initial real depreciation, these estimated

effects are not statistically significantly different from zero. We subject these basic findings to a variety

of robustness checks and find that they hold up quite well. We find similar patterns in the response of

the real exchange rate to aid when excluding influential observations, when varying the number of lags

in our specification, and using alternative versions of the real exchange rate and the instrument.

We also empirically investigated a number of sources of heterogeneity in the relationship

between aid and the real exchange rate suggested by theory. We do not find very large differences

across exchange rate regimes, nor do we find that over-time variation in reserve accumulation is

obscuring the relationship between aid and the real exchange rate regime. We also considered whether

the location where aid is spent matters for its effects on the real exchange rate. Perhaps due to our very

imperfect proxy for aid spent abroad, we do not find much difference along this dimension either in

terms of effects on the real exchange rate.

From a methodological standpoint, this paper has offered two contributions beyond these

immediate findings. First, unlike the majority of empirical papers in this literature, we have suggested

17

an identification strategy that isolates a plausibly predetermined source of fluctuations in aid, that can

help to isolate a causal effect of aid on the real exchange rate. Second, we rely on local projections as

suggested by Jordà (2005) to more flexibly characterize the dynamic response of aid to the real

exchange rate.

Although the findings here suggest at best a modest impact of aid on the real exchange rate, a

useful caveat is that we have estimated only average responses within fairly large country groups. It is

possible that there is significant heterogeneity in country-level responses of the real exchange rate to

aid. It remains an open question for further research whether these country-level differences can be

identified with the tools suggested here, and given the limited -- and often noisy -- time series coverage

of data on aid and real exchange rates for many of the countries in our sample.

18

References

Adam, Chris S. (2006), “Exogenous Inflows and Real Exchange Rates: Theoretical Quirk or Empirical Reality?,” in Peter Isard, Leslie Lipschitz, Alexandros Mourmouras and Boriana Yontcheva (eds.): The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid: Opportunities and Pitfalls. International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.

Bulir, Ales, Timothy Lane (2006),” Aid and Fiscal Management,” in: Ashoka, Mody, Catherine Patillo (eds.): Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction. Routledge Studies in the Modern World Economy, Vol. 53. London and New York: Routledge, Taylor and Francis, pp.126-150. Elbadawi, A.I. (1999), “External aid: Help or Hindrance to export orientation in Africa?” Journal of African Economies, 8(4), pp. 578-616. Hussain, Mumtaz, Andrew Berg, Shekhar Aiyar (2009): The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience. Review of Development Economics, 13 (3): 491-509.

Corden, W. Max, Peter J. Neary (1982), “Booming sector and De-Industrialization in a small open economy”. Economic Journal, 92, pp. 825-848.

Hadi, A.S. (1992), “Identifying Multiple Outliers in Multivariate Data”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 54 , pp. 761-771. Ilzetzki, Ethan, Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff (2012),“Exchange Rate Arrangements Entering the 21st Century:Which Anchor Will Hold?,” updated through December 2010.

Jorda, Oscar (2005), “Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections". American Economic Review, 95(1): 161-182.

Judson, Ruth and Ann Owen (1999). "Estimating Dynamic Panel Models: A Guide for Macroeconomists". Economics Letters. 65(1):9-15.

Kraay, Aart (2013). "Disbursement Delays and the Growth Effects of Aid". Manuscript, The World Bank.

Kraay, Aart (2012a), “How Large is the Government Spending Multiplier? Evidence from World Bank Lending”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(2): 829-887.

Kraay, Aart (2012b) , “Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries. Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors”. Policy Research Working Paper 6099, World Bank, Washington DC.

Korinek, Anton and Luis Serven (2010),” Undervaluation through Foreign Reserve Accumulation: Static Losses, Dynamic Gains”. Policy Research Working Paper 5250, World Bank, Washington DC. Nyoni, T. (1998) “Foreign Aid and Economic Performance in Tanzania”. World Development Vol 26(7): 1235-1240.

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Prati, Alessandro, Ratna Sahay, Thierry Tressel (2003), “Is there a Case for Sterilizing Foreign Aid,” Working paper preliminary draft presented at the 18th annual European Economic Association Congress and the 58th Econometric Society European Meeting, Stockholm, August 20–24. Rajan, Raghuram, Arvind Subramanian (2011), “ Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth”. Journal of Development Economics, 94 (1): 106-118.

Staiger, Douglas, James Stock (1997), “Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments”. Econometrica, 65(3): 557-586.

Temple, Jonathan R.W. (2010): Aid and Conditionality. Handbook of Development Economics, Volume 5.

Torvik, Ragnar (2001), “Learning by Doing and the Dutch Disease”. European Economic Review, 45(2): 285-306.

Tressel, Thierry, Lone Engbo Christiansen, Alessandro Prati, Luca Antonio Ricci (2009), “External Balance in Low Income Countries”. Working Papers, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.

Van Wijnbergen, Sweder (1986), “Macroeconomic Aspects of the Effectiveness of Aid: on the two-gap model, home goods disequilibrium, and real exchange rate misalignment,” Journal of International Economics 21(1-2), 123-136.

Van Wijnbergen, Sweder (1985), “Aid, Export Promotion and the Real Exchange Rate: an African Dilemma?” Center for Economic Policy Research Paper No. 88.

Yano, Makoto, Jeffrey B.Nugent (1999), “Aid, Nontraded Goods, and the Transfer Paradox in Small Countries”. American Economic Review, 89(3):431-449.

20

Table 1: Summary statistics

Notes: This table reports summary statistics on the indicated variables. Aid and predicted disbursements are expressed as a share of GDP, and the real exchange rate is in logarithms. All variables are in terms of deviations from country- and year-averages, consistent with the inclusion of country and year fixed effects in Equation (1).

N Std.Dev

Real effective exchange rate (log)

Net ODA/ GDP

Predicted disbursements/GDP

Full Sample Real effective exchange rate (log) 2418 0.11 1.00

Netoda/GDP 2418 0.04 -0.09 1.00

Predicted disbursements/GDP 2418 0.01 -0.07 0.39 1.00

High Disbursement Sample

Real effective exchange rate (log) 1212 0.11 1.00

Netoda/GDP 1212 0.06 -0.13 1.00

Predicted disbursements 1212 0.01 -0.10 0.37 1.00

IDA Sample

Real effective exchange rate (log) 1274 0.12 1.00

Netoda/GDP 1274 0.05 -0.11 1.00

Predicted disbursements 1274 0.01 -0.08 0.39 1.00

21

Table 2: Benchmark specification

Note: ** (**) (*) denotes significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent level. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors are clustered at the country level. Net ODA and the predicted disbursements instrument are both scaled by GDP. Panels A and B report OLS and instrumental variable estimates of Equation (1), including a full set of country and year fixed effects. The three columns correspond to the full sample of countries, the high net ODA recipient sample, and the sample of IDA-eligible countries. The sample of high net ODA recipients consists of countries with net aid exceeding 6 percent of GDP averaged over the sample period. Coefficients on lags of the dependent variable, and number of observations, correspond to horizon h=0 of the local projection regression.

Sample of countries Full High Aid IDA

h=0 -0.233*** (0.075) -0.256*** (0.084) -0.242*** (0.083)

h=1 -0.221* (0.117) -0.242* (0.125) -0.211* (0.121)

h=2 -0.219 (0.145) -0.234 (0.153) -0.198 (0.148)

h=3 -0.206 (0.161) -0.177 (0.155) -0.150 (0.157)

h=4 -0.157 (0.175) -0.086 (0.158) -0.087 (0.171)

h=5 -0.090 (0.197) 0.028 (0.179) 0.045 (0.195)Lagged rxr 0.985*** (0.039) 0.921*** (0.058) 0.944*** (0.050)

Twice lagged rxr -0.158*** (0.030) -0.135*** (0.044) -0.145*** (0.038)

h=0 -0.487*** (0.184) -0.547*** (0.189) -0.487*** (0.177)

h=1 -0.113 (0.262) -0.247 (0.234) -0.116 (0.237)

h=2 0.154 (0.388) -0.016 (0.372) 0.133 (0.376)

h=3 0.358 (0.465) 0.213 (0.435) 0.399 (0.422)

h=4 0.513 (0.508) 0.380 (0.479) 0.547 (0.461)

h=5 0.666 (0.556) 0.553 (0.516) 0.718 (0.480)

Lagged rxr 0.976*** (0.040) 0.901*** (0.062) 0.933*** (0.052)

Twice lagged rxr -0.158*** (0.030) -0.133*** (0.044) -0.143*** (0.038)

70.88 48.64 57.32

No. of Obs . h=0 2418 1212 1274

No. of Countries h=0 104 53 58

Estimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of predicted disbursements as a share of GDP at horizon h:

Fi rs t-s tage F-Statis tic on excluded instrument

Panel A: OLS EstimatesDependent variable i s the log of the trade-weighted rea l exchange rate at horizon h

Panel B: Instrumental Variable Estimates

Dependent variable i s the log of the trade-weighted rea l exchange rate at horizon h

Estimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of a id (Net ODA) as a share of GDP at horizon h:

22

Table 3: Robustness Checks – Part I

Note: ** (**) (*) denotes significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent level. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors are clustered at the country level. Table 3 reports 2SLS estimates of local projection regressions in Equation (1). Coefficients on lags of the dependent variable are not reported to conserve space. Net ODA and the predicted disbursements instrument are both scaled by GDP. Panels A and B report OLS and instrumental variable estimates of Equation (1), including a full set of country and year fixed effects. The three columns correspond to the full sample of countries, the high net ODA recipient sample, and the sample of IDA-eligible countries. The sample of high net ODA recipients consists of countries with net aid exceeding 6 percent of GDP averaged over the sample period. Coefficients on lags of the dependent variable, and number of observations, correspond to horizon h=0 of the local projection regression.

Sample of countries Full High Aid IDA

h=0 -0.485*** (0.155) -0.387*** (0.132) -0.463*** (0.134)h=1 -0.215 (0.272) -0.304 (0.247) -0.129 (0.250)h=2 0.163 (0.414) 0.033 (0.326) 0.174 (0.372)h=3 0.221 (0.484) 0.064 (0.403) 0.167 (0.430)h=4 0.250 (0.539) 0.071 (0.433) 0.291 (0.451)

h=5 0.488 (0.565) 0.318 (0.471) 0.498 (0.466)FSR F-Statis tic h=0 115.78 55.96 64.37No. of Obs . h=0 2343 1174 1233

h=0 -0.563*** (0.171) -0.595*** (0.170) -0.547*** (0.156)

h=1 -0.229 (0.265) -0.397 (0.244) -0.261 (0.248)h=2 0.047 (0.364) -0.124 (0.331) 0.019 (0.346)h=3 0.211 (0.436) 0.041 (0.385) 0.225 (0.389)h=4 0.379 (0.477) 0.202 (0.417) 0.377 (0.412)h=5 0.524 (0.523) 0.333 (0.465) 0.531 (0.440)

FSR F-Statis tic 76.61 48.22 56.54

No. of Obs . h=0 2313 1156 1212

h=0 -0.579*** (0.164) -0.574*** (0.153) -0.524*** (0.158)h=1 -0.225 (0.251) -0.259 (0.253) -0.093 (0.258)h=2 0.016 (0.374) 0.010 (0.417) 0.204 (0.414)h=3 0.148 (0.439) 0.156 (0.484) 0.412 (0.456)h=4 0.213 (0.493) 0.205 (0.539) 0.474 (0.505)h=5 0.357 (0.532) 0.374 (0.561) 0.655 (0.510)

FSR F-Statis tic 81.14 55.33 56.46No. of Obs . 2409 1203 1265

h=0 -0.945*** (0.174) -0.936*** (0.208) -0.930*** (0.199)h=1 -0.597*** (0.226) -0.539** (0.269) -0.553* (0.290)h=2 -0.270 (0.292) -0.131 (0.365) -0.142 (0.375)h=3 -0.153 (0.326) 0.057 (0.414) 0.038 (0.409)h=4 0.032 (0.336) 0.235 (0.399) 0.202 (0.380)h=5 0.150 (0.364) 0.377 (0.406) 0.402 (0.402)

FSR F-Statis tic 121.18 64.74 93.94No. of Obs . h=0 3472 1734 1844

Using a Bilateral RXR MeasureEstimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of predicted disbursements as a

Instrumental Variable Estimates only

Excluding Influential ObservationsEstimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of predicted disbursements as a share of GDP at

Adding a Third Lag of RXREstimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of predicted disbursements as a share of GDP at

p on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of a id (Net ODA) as a share of GDP at horizon h

Using a More Conservative Predicted Disbursements Instrument

23

Table 4: Robustness Checks – Part II

Note: ** (**) (*) denotes significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent level. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors are clustered at the country level. Table 4 reports 2SLS estimates of local projection regressions in Equation (1). Coefficients on lags of the dependent variable are not reported to conserve space. Net ODA and the predicted disbursements instrument are both scaled by GDP. Panels A and B report OLS and instrumental variable estimates of Equation (1), including a full set of country and year fixed effects. The three columns correspond to the full sample of countries, the high net ODA recipient sample, and the sample of IDA-eligible countries. The sample of high net ODA recipients consists of countries with net aid exceeding 6 percent of GDP averaged over the sample period. Coefficients on lags of the dependent variable, and number of observations, correspond to horizon h=0 of the local projection regression.

Sample of countries Full High Aid IDA

h=0 -0.809*** (0.246) -0.780** (0.304) -0.614** (0.259)h=1 -0.672* (0.365) -0.542 (0.426) -0.336 (0.392)h=2 -0.489 (0.515) -0.248 (0.589) -0.094 (0.514)h=3 -0.364 (0.731) 0.095 (0.813) 0.158 (0.684)

h=4 -0.085 (0.890) 0.535 (0.999) 0.433 (0.838)

h=5 -0.014 (0.996) 0.669 (1.044) 0.417 (0.880)FSR F-Statis tic 31.33 18.7 25.36

No. of Obs . h=0 1522 784 862

h=0 -0.496 (0.346) -0.440 (0.315) -0.487 (0.419)

h=1 -0.098 (0.400) -0.254 (0.374) -0.089 (0.479)

h=2 0.094 (0.535) -0.094 (0.474) 0.085 (0.597)

h=3 0.125 (0.618) -0.096 (0.476) 0.130 (0.561)

h=4 0.121 (0.670) -0.049 (0.514) 0.217 (0.563)

h=5 0.344 (0.727) 0.163 (0.599) 0.655 (0.586)FSR F-Statis tic 32.25 33.77 25.69

No. of Obs . h=0 892 424 408

Controlling for Changes in Net Reservesh=0 -0.469** (0.192) -0.424** (0.175) -0.325* (0.166)

h=1 0.051 (0.307) -0.027 (0.268) 0.190 (0.280)h=2 0.452 (0.457) 0.352 (0.428) 0.574 (0.437)h=3 0.689 (0.575) 0.633 (0.517) 0.853* (0.509)h=4 0.647 (0.622) 0.576 (0.553) 0.647 (0.545)

h=5 0.762 (0.685) 0.768 (0.613) 0.810 (0.600)FSR F-Statis tic 56.63 36.81 44.5No. of Obs . h=0 2212 1077 1122

h=0 -0.692*** (0.261) -0.791*** (0.272) -0.715*** (0.252)

h=1 -0.160 (0.371) -0.357 (0.336) -0.170 (0.347)

h=2 0.216 (0.547) -0.023 (0.537) 0.193 (0.546)

h=3 0.499 (0.652) 0.308 (0.633) 0.575 (0.611)

h=4 0.707 (0.708) 0.548 (0.698) 0.784 (0.667)h=5 0.910 (0.770) 0.790 (0.750) 1.020 (0.686)

FSR F-Statis tic 71.22 76.78 53.5

No. of Obs . h=0 2418 1212 1274

Excluding Technical Assistance, Humanitarian Assistance, Development Food Aid

Estimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of a id (Net ODA) as a share of GDP at horizon h

Estimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of a id (Net ODA) as a share of GDP at horizon h

Fixed Exchange Rate Regime SampleEstimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of a id (Net ODA) as a share of GDP at horizon h

Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Sample

Estimated impact on the rea l exchange rate at horizon h, of a id (Net ODA) as a share of GDP at horizon h

24

Figure 1: Estimates of Impulse Response of Real Exchange Rate to Aid, Benchmark Specification

Notes: This figure shows 2SLS estimates of the percent response of the real exchange rate to a one percentage point increase in aid as a fraction of GDP, for h=0, ... 5 years following the increase in aid. 95% confidence intervals based on heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors clustered at the country level are shown as vertical lines.

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

h=0 h=1 h=2 h=3 h=4 h=5

Perc

ent R

espo

nse

of R

XR

Benchmark

Excluding Influential Obervations

Adding a Third Lag of RXR

Using a More Conservative Predicted Disbursements InstrumentUsing a Bilateral RXR Measure

25

Figure 2: First-Stage (Top Panel) and Reduced-Form (Bottom Panel) Regressions

Notes: The top panel shows the estimated first-stage relationship between net ODA and predicted disbursements on loans from official creditors. Both variables are scaled by GDP and expressed as deviations from country- and year-specific means. The bottom panel shows the reduced-form relationship between the logarithm of the real exchange rate and predicted disbursements as a fraction of GDP, also in deviations from country- and year-specific means.

A F G 20 04A F G 20 05A F G 200 6

A F G 2007A F G 20 08A F G 200 9

A G O 20 02A G O 200 3A G O 2 00 4

A G O 2 00 5A G O 200 6A G O 2 007A G O 200 8A G O 20 09A LB 1998

A L B 19 99

A L B 200 0A L B 20 01A L B 20 02A L B 20 03

A L B 20 04A LB 2005A LB 2006A LB 2 007A L B 20 08A L B 20 09A R G 1982

A R G 198 3A R G 19 84A R G 19 85A R G 19 86A R G 19 87A R G 19 88A R G 19 89A R G 199 0

A R G 1 991A R G 19 92A R G 19 93A R G 1 994A R G 19 95A R G 199 6A R G 1997A R G 19 98A R G 19 99A R G 20 00A R G 20 01 A R G 20 02A R G 200 3A R G 200 4A R G 20 05A R G 20 06A R G 20 07A R G 20 08A R G 20 09

A R M 1 996

A R M 1 997A R M 199 8A R M 1999A R M 20 00

A R M 20 01A R M 2 002

A R M 20 03A R M 2004

A R M 20 05A R M 20 06A R M 20 07A R M 20 08A R M 200 9 A Z E 199 6

A Z E 19 97A Z E 199 8A Z E 1 99 9A Z E 2 000A Z E 200 1

A Z E 200 2A Z E 200 3A Z E 20 04A Z E 2 00 5A Z E 2 00 6A Z E 2 00 7A Z E 2 00 8A Z E 2 00 9

B D I1 981B D I1 98 2B D I198 3B D I19 84

B D I1 98 5B D I1 98 6B D I1 987B D I1 98 8 B D I1 98 9

B D I1 99 0B D I19 91

B D I199 2

B D I1 99 3

B D I1 99 4

B D I1 99 5

B D I199 6

B D I19 97B D I199 8

B D I1 99 9B D I2 000

B D I2 00 1

B D I2 00 2

B D I2 00 3

B D I200 5B D I2 006

B D I200 7

B D I2 00 8B D I20 09

B E N 1 987B E N 1 98 8

B E N 19 89

B E N 199 0B E N 1 991B E N 1 99 2

B E N 1 99 3B E N 1 99 4

B E N 1 99 5B E N 199 6B E N 1 997

B E N 1 998B E N 199 9B E N 2 00 0B E N 20 01

B E N 2 00 2B E N 20 03B E N 20 04

B E N 2 00 5B E N 20 06B E N 200 7B E N 2 00 8B E N 2 00 9

B F A 1 98 2 B F A 1 98 3B F A 1 98 4B F A 1 985B F A 1 98 6B F A 198 7B F A 1 98 8B F A 1 98 9B F A 1 99 0

B F A 1 991

B F A 19 92B F A 1 99 3B F A 199 4

B F A 1 99 5B F A 1 99 6B F A 1 99 7B F A 1 99 8B F A 1 99 9

B F A 2 00 0

B F A 20 01B F A 2 002B F A 20 03B F A 2 004B F A 2 00 5B F A 200 6B F A 20 07

B F A 2 00 8B F A 2 00 9B G D 1 999B G D 20 00B G D 2001B G D 20 02B G D 2003B G D 2 004B G D 2 005B G D 200 6B G D 20 07B G D 20 08B G D 20 09

B IH 2 00 2B IH 2 00 3B IH 2 004

B IH 200 5B IH 2 006B IH 200 7B IH 2 00 8B IH 2 00 9B L Z 19 82B LZ 1983

B LZ 1 984

B LZ 19 85 B L Z 19 86B L Z 19 87B L Z 19 88B L Z 19 89B L Z 19 90

B L Z 19 91B L Z 199 2B L Z 19 93B L Z 199 4B L Z 19 95B L Z 19 96 B L Z 19 97B L Z 19 98

B L Z 19 99

B LZ 2 000B LZ 2 001B L Z 200 2B L Z 200 3B L Z 20 04B LZ 200 5B L Z 200 6B L Z 20 07B L Z 20 08B L Z 20 09

B O L1 982B O L 198 3B O L1 98 4B O L 198 5

B O L 198 6

B O L1 987B O L1 98 8B O L1 989B O L1 99 0B O L19 91

B O L1 992B O L1 99 3B O L1 994

B O L1 99 5B O L199 6

B O L 199 7B O L1 99 8B O L1 99 9B O L2 00 0B O L20 01B O L20 02

B O L2 00 3B O L2 00 4

B O L2 00 5B O L20 06

B O L2 00 7B O L 200 8B O L2 00 9B R A 1 98 2B R A 1 98 3B R A 19 84B R A 198 5B R A 1 98 6B R A 1 98 7B R A 1 988B R A 1 98 9B R A 199 0B R A 19 91B R A 1 99 3B R A 1 99 4B R A 199 5B R A 19 96B R A 1 99 7B R A 1 99 8B R A 199 9

B R A 2 00 0B R A 2 00 1B R A 2 00 2B R A 2 003B R A 2 00 4B R A 2 00 5B R A 2 00 6B R A 200 7B R A 200 8B R A 2 00 9B T N 2 006

B T N 2 00 7B T N 200 9

B W A 1 98 2B W A 1 983B W A 1 984B W A 1 98 5B W A 1 98 6B W A 1 98 7

B W A 1 98 8B W A 1 98 9B W A 19 90B W A 1 99 1B W A 1 992B W A 19 93B W A 1 99 4B W A 19 95B W A 1 99 6B W A 1 99 7B W A 19 98B W A 1 999B W A 200 0B W A 2 00 1B W A 2 00 2B W A 2 00 3B W A 200 4B W A 20 05B W A 2 00 6B W A 2 00 7

B W A 20 08

B W A 200 9C A F 1 98 2C A F 1 98 3

C A F 1 984

C A F 1 98 5C A F 1 98 6C A F 1 98 7C A F 1 988

C A F 1 989C A F 1 99 0C A F 1 99 1C A F 1 99 2C A F 1 99 3

C A F 1 99 4

C A F 1 995C A F 1 996

C A F 1 99 7C A F 1 99 8C A F 1 999

C A F 2 00 0C A F 2 001C A F 2 00 2C A F 200 3

C A F 200 4C A F 2 00 5C A F 2 00 6

C A F 2 007C A F 2 008C A F 20 09

C H L19 84C H L 198 5C H L 19 87C H L1 988C H L 19 89C H L 19 90C H L 199 1C H L 1992C H L 199 3C H L19 94C H L 19 95C H L 199 6C H L 1997C H L1 998C H L 19 99C H L2 000C H L2 001C H L 20 03C H L 20 04C H L20 05C H L 20 06C H L 200 7C H L20 08C H L 200 9C H N 198 2C H N 1 98 3C H N 19 84C H N 1 98 5C H N 1 98 6C H N 1 987C H N 198 8C H N 19 89C H N 1 990C H N 1 99 1C H N 19 92C H N 1 99 3C H N 19 94C H N 19 95C H N 1 99 6C H N 1 99 7C H N 199 8C H N 1 999C H N 20 00C H N 2 001C H N 2 002C H N 200 3C H N 2 004C H N 2 00 5C H N 20 06C H N 2 00 7C H N 200 8C H N 2 009

C IV 19 82C IV 1 98 3C IV 1 984C IV 1 98 5C IV 1 98 6C IV 1 987C IV 198 8C IV 1 98 9

C IV 19 90C IV 1 99 1C IV 199 2C IV 1 99 3

C IV 199 4

C IV 1 99 5C IV 19 96

C IV 1 99 7

C IV 199 8C IV 1 99 9C IV 2 00 0

C IV 2 001

C IV 2 00 2

C IV 2 00 3C IV 2 00 4C IV 200 5C IV 2 00 6C IV 2 00 7C IV 200 8

C IV 200 9

C M R 1982C M R 19 83C M R 198 4C M R 1985C M R 198 6C M R 1 987C M R 19 88

C M R 198 9C M R 1990C M R 19 91C M R 19 92

C M R 1 993C M R 19 94

C M R 19 95C M R 19 96C M R 19 97C M R 1 998C M R 1 999C M R 20 00C M R 20 01

C M R 20 02C M R 20 03C M R 20 04C M R 2 005

C M R 2 006C M R 20 07

C M R 20 08C M R 20 09

C O G 1 98 1C O G 1 982C O G 1 98 3C O G 198 4C O G 19 85C O G 19 86C O G 19 87C O G 1 98 8C O G 1 989

C O G 1 99 0C O G 199 1

C O G 1 99 2C O G 1 99 3

C O G 19 94

C O G 1 99 5

C O G 199 6

C O G 1 997

C O G 19 98

C O G 19 99

C O G 20 00C O G 200 1C O G 2 00 2C O G 2 00 3 C O G 200 4

C O G 2 00 5

C O G 200 6C O G 2 00 7

C O G 2 008C O G 2 00 9C O L19 82C O L1 98 3C O L 198 4C O L 198 5C O L1 98 6C O L19 87C O L1 988C O L1 989C O L1 99 0C O L1 991C O L1 99 2C O L199 3C O L1 99 4C O L1 995C O L 199 6C O L1 99 7C O L1 99 8C O L1 999C O L2 00 0C O L2 00 1C O L20 02C O L2 00 3C O L2 00 4C O L2 005C O L2 00 6C O L2 00 7C O L2 008C O L2 00 9

C O M 1 98 2

C O M 1 98 6C O M 198 7C O M 1 98 8

C O M 1 98 9

C O M 1 990

C O M 1 991

C O M 19 92C O M 1 99 3C O M 1 994

C O M 1 99 5C O M 199 6C O M 1 99 7

C O M 199 8

C O M 19 99C O M 2 00 0C O M 2 001

C O M 2 00 2C O M 200 3C O M 2 00 4C O M 2 00 5C O M 2 00 6

C O M 2 007C O M 2 00 8

C O M 2 00 9

C P V 1 993

C P V 19 94

C P V 199 5C P V 19 96C P V 199 7C P V 1 99 8 C P V 1 99 9

C P V 2 000

C P V 2 00 1C P V 2 00 2

C P V 2 00 3C P V 2 00 4C P V 200 5

C P V 2 00 6C P V 2 007C P V 200 8

C P V 2 00 9

C R I1 98 2

C R I1 983C R I1 98 4C R I1 98 5

C R I1 98 6C R I1 987C R I1 98 8C R I1 98 9C R I19 90C R I1 991C R I1 992C R I1 99 3C R I199 4C R I19 95C R I1 998C R I2 00 0C R I2 003C R I2 00 4C R I2 00 5C R I2 006C R I2 00 7C R I20 08C R I200 9

D JI19 92

D JI19 93D JI19 94

D JI19 95D JI19 96D J I1 997D J I199 8D J I1 999D JI20 00

D J I2 001D J I2002 D J I2 003

D JI20 04D J I20 05

D JI20 06D J I2 007D JI20 08

D J I200 9

D M A 1 981D M A 19 82

D M A 198 3

D M A 19 84D M A 1 985

D M A 19 86D M A 19 87 D M A 19 88

D M A 1 989

D M A 19 90D M A 19 91

D M A 19 92D M A 1 993

D M A 19 94

D M A 199 5

D M A 19 96

D M A 19 97D M A 19 98

D M A 19 99D M A 20 00D M A 20 01D M A 20 02

D M A 200 3

D M A 20 04D M A 20 05D M A 20 06D M A 20 07D M A 20 08

D M A 20 09D O M 1 98 2D O M 19 83D O M 1 98 4D O M 1 985

D O M 1 986D O M 1 98 7D O M 1 98 8D O M 19 89D O M 1 99 0D O M 1 99 1D O M 199 2D O M 199 4D O M 1 99 5D O M 1 99 6D O M 199 7D O M 1 998D O M 199 9D O M 200 0D O M 20 01D O M 2 00 2D O M 20 03D O M 20 04D O M 2 00 5

D O M 20 06D O M 2 00 7D O M 2 00 8D O M 20 09E C U 198 2E C U 1 98 3E C U 1 984E C U 1 98 5E C U 1 98 6E C U 1 987E C U 1 98 8E C U 1 98 9E C U 199 0

E C U 199 1E C U 19 92E C U 199 3E C U 199 4E C U 199 5E C U 199 6E C U 1 99 7E C U 1 99 8E C U 1 999E C U 2 00 0E C U 2 00 1E C U 2 002E C U 200 3E C U 20 04E C U 20 05E C U 200 6E C U 2 007E C U 2 00 8E C U 2 00 9E G Y 199 3E G Y19 94E G Y 199 5E G Y 19 96E G Y19 97E G Y 19 98E G Y 19 99E G Y 200 0E G Y20 01E G Y20 02E G Y 20 03E G Y 20 04E G Y 20 05E G Y2 006E G Y 200 7E G Y 200 8E G Y 200 9E R I1 99 4

E R I1 99 5E R I19 96

E R I199 7

E R I199 8 E R I1 99 9

E R I2 000

E R I2 00 1

E R I2 00 2E R I2 003

E R I20 04

E R I2 00 5

E R I2 00 6E R I2 007

E R I200 8E R I2 00 9

E T H 1 98 2E T H 1 983E T H 1 98 4

E T H 1 985E T H 1 98 6

E T H 1 98 7E T H 1 98 8

E T H 1 98 9E T H 1 99 0E T H 1 99 1E T H 1 99 2

E T H 1 99 3E T H 19 94E T H 199 5E T H 199 6

E T H 1 99 7E T H 19 98 E T H 19 99E T H 2 00 0

E T H 2 00 1E T H 2 00 2

E T H 2 00 3E T H 2 00 4E T H 20 05

E T H 2 00 6E T H 2 00 7E T H 2 00 8E T H 2 00 9F J I19 82F J I19 83F J I198 4F J I19 85F JI19 86F J I19 87

F JI19 88F J I19 89F J I199 0F JI19 91F J I19 92F JI19 93

F J I1 994F J I19 95F J I1 996F J I19 97F J I19 98F J I199 9F JI20 00F JI20 01F J I20 02F JI20 03F JI20 04F J I200 5F JI20 06F JI20 07F JI20 08F J I2 009G A B 19 82G A B 19 83G A B 198 4G A B 19 85G A B 1986G A B 198 7G A B 19 88G A B 19 89

G A B 19 90G A B 19 91G A B 19 92G A B 1993G A B 199 4

G A B 1 995G A B 19 96G A B 19 97G A B 1 998G A B 19 99G A B 20 00G A B 20 01G A B 20 02G A B 20 04G A B 20 05G A B 2006G A B 20 07G A B 20 08G A B 20 09G E O 1 99 6G E O 1 997G E O 1 99 8

G E O 1 99 9

G E O 2 00 0

G E O 20 01G E O 2 00 2

G E O 2 003G E O 2 004G E O 2 005G E O 2 00 6G E O 2 00 7

G E O 2 00 8G E O 2 00 9

G H A 19 82G H A 19 83

G H A 19 84

G H A 19 85 G H A 19 86G H A 198 7G H A 19 88

G H A 19 89

G H A 19 90

G H A 19 91

G H A 19 92G H A 19 93G H A 19 94G H A 199 5G H A 19 96G H A 1997

G H A 19 98G H A 1999

G H A 20 00G H A 20 01G H A 2002

G H A 200 3

G H A 200 4

G H A 2 005

G H A 20 06G H A 20 07G H A 20 08G H A 20 09G IN 1 988

G IN 198 9

G IN 199 0G IN 19 91G IN 19 92G IN 19 93

G IN 19 94G IN 19 95

G IN 19 96G IN 19 97G IN 199 8

G IN 19 99G IN 200 0

G IN 200 1G IN 20 02G IN 20 03G IN 20 04 G IN 20 05G IN 200 6G IN 20 07

G IN 20 08

G IN 20 09

G M B 19 82G M B 198 3

G M B 198 4

G M B 198 5

G M B 1 987

G M B 1 98 8

G M B 198 9

G M B 19 90G M B 1 99 1G M B 199 2

G M B 1 99 3

G M B 1 99 4

G M B 1 995G M B 199 6G M B 19 97G M B 199 8G M B 19 99

G M B 200 0G M B 2 00 1

G M B 200 2 G M B 2 00 3

G M B 2 004G M B 2 005G M B 2 00 6

G M B 20 07G M B 2 00 8

G M B 20 09

G N B 199 5G N B 19 97 G N B 1 998

G N B 19 99

G N B 20 00

G N B 20 01G N B 20 02G N B 20 03

G N B 20 04G N B 2 005

G N B 200 6G N B 20 07

G N B 2 008G N B 20 09

G T M 1 982G T M 19 83G T M 19 84G T M 1 98 5G T M 1 98 6G T M 198 7G T M 1 98 8G T M 198 9

G T M 1 99 0G T M 1 99 1G T M 1 99 2G T M 1 99 3G T M 199 4G T M 1 99 5G T M 199 6G T M 19 97G T M 1 99 8G T M 1 999G T M 2 00 0G T M 200 1G T M 2 00 2G T M 2 00 3G T M 2 00 4G T M 200 5

G T M 2 00 6G T M 2 007G T M 200 8G T M 2 009

G U Y 19 82G U Y19 83G U Y 19 84G U Y1 985G U Y1 986G U Y 19 87

G U Y 198 8G U Y 19 89

G U Y 199 0

G U Y19 95

G U Y 19 96

G U Y19 97

G U Y 19 98G U Y19 99

G U Y 20 00G U Y2 001

G U Y 20 02G U Y20 03

G U Y 20 04G U Y2 005

G U Y 20 06

G U Y 20 07G U Y 20 08G U Y2 009

H N D 198 2H N D 1 98 3

H N D 1 98 4H N D 198 5H N D 198 6H N D 1 98 7H N D 1 98 8H N D 1 989

H N D 199 0

H N D 1 991H N D 199 2 H N D 1 993H N D 1 99 4

H N D 1 99 5H N D 199 6H N D 1 997H N D 19 98

H N D 199 9

H N D 2 000H N D 2 001

H N D 2 00 2H N D 2 003H N D 2 004H N D 2 00 5H N D 2 006

H N D 20 07H N D 20 08H N D 2 00 9

H T I1 99 1H T I1 99 2H T I199 3

H T I1 99 4H T I199 5

H T I1 99 6H T I19 97H T I1 99 8

H T I1 99 9H T I2 00 0H T I2 001H T I2 00 2H T I2 003H T I2 004

H T I2 005H T I200 6H T I2 00 7

H T I200 8H T I2 00 9

ID N 1 98 1ID N 198 2ID N 198 3ID N 1 98 4ID N 1 98 5ID N 1 98 6ID N 1 987ID N 1 98 8ID N 198 9ID N 199 0ID N 1 99 1ID N 19 92ID N 19 93ID N 1 99 4ID N 1 99 5ID N 19 96ID N 1 997 ID N 1 998ID N 1 99 9ID N 2 00 0ID N 2 001ID N 20 02ID N 2 003ID N 200 4ID N 200 5ID N 2 00 6ID N 20 07ID N 2 00 8ID N 20 09IN D 19 82IN D 19 83IN D 1 98 4IN D 19 85IN D 198 6IN D 198 7IN D 198 8IN D 1 98 9

IN D 19 90IN D 1 991IN D 199 2IN D 199 3IN D 1 994IN D 1 99 5IN D 1 99 6IN D 1 99 7IN D 19 98IN D 19 99IN D 2 00 0IN D 2 00 1IN D 2 00 2IN D 2 003IN D 2 00 4IN D 20 05IN D 2 00 6IN D 200 7IN D 20 08IN D 2 00 9IR N 1 98 1

IR N 1 98 3IR N 19 84IR N 19 85IR N 1 98 6IR N 1 987

IR N 19 88IR N 1 98 9IR N 1 99 0

IR N 199 3IR N 1 99 4IR N 1 99 5IR N 1 996

IR N 199 7IR N 1 99 8IR N 1 999IR N 2 00 0IR N 20 01IR N 2 00 2IR N 200 3IR N 2 004IR N 2 00 5IR N 2 00 6IR N 2 00 7IR N 2 00 8IR N 2 009J A M 1 982J A M 1 983J A M 198 4 J A M 1 985

J A M 19 86JA M 1 987JA M 1 98 8J A M 19 89J A M 1 990J A M 19 91 J A M 1 992J A M 1 993J A M 1 994J A M 1 995JA M 1 99 6JA M 1 997J A M 19 98JA M 2 00 0J A M 20 01JA M 2 00 2JA M 2 00 3J A M 200 4J A M 2 005J A M 20 06J A M 2 007J A M 20 08J A M 2 00 9

J O R 198 2JO R 1 98 3J O R 19 84

J O R 198 5J O R 19 86 JO R 1 98 7

J O R 198 8JO R 1 98 9

J O R 1 990 J O R 199 1

JO R 1 99 2JO R 1 99 3J O R 1 994

J O R 199 5J O R 199 6J O R 1 99 7J O R 1 998JO R 1 99 9JO R 2 00 0J O R 2 001J O R 200 2

J O R 2 003

J O R 200 4JO R 2 00 5JO R 2 00 6JO R 2 00 7J O R 2 008J O R 20 09K A Z 199 6K A Z 1 99 7K A Z 1 99 8K A Z 1 999K A Z 200 0K A Z 2 00 1K A Z 200 2K A Z 2 00 3K A Z 2 00 4K A Z 2 00 5K A Z 2 00 6K A Z 2 007K A Z 2 00 8K A Z 2 00 9K E N 1 98 2K E N 198 3K E N 1 98 4K E N 1 98 5

K E N 19 86K E N 1 98 7K E N 198 8

K E N 1 989K E N 199 0K E N 1 99 1K E N 1 992

K E N 199 3

K E N 1 99 4K E N 1 99 5K E N 199 6K E N 1 997K E N 1 99 8K E N 1 99 9K E N 2 00 0K E N 20 01K E N 20 02K E N 20 03K E N 200 4K E N 2 005K E N 2 00 6K E N 2 00 7K E N 200 8K E N 200 9

K G Z 19 96K G Z 199 7 K G Z 1 998 K G Z 20 00

K G Z 20 01K G Z 20 02K G Z 20 03K G Z 20 04K G Z 2 005K G Z 200 6

K G Z 20 07K G Z 20 08K G Z 200 9

K H M 1 996K H M 19 97K H M 19 98K H M 1999

K H M 20 00K H M 20 01K H M 20 02K H M 200 3K H M 20 04K H M 20 05K H M 20 06K H M 20 07K H M 20 08K H M 2 009

K N A 198 1K N A 1 98 2K N A 1 98 3K N A 1 98 4K N A 1 98 5K N A 198 6 K N A 1 98 7

K N A 1 98 8K N A 1 98 9

K N A 1 990K N A 199 1K N A 199 2K N A 1 99 3

K N A 1 99 4K N A 19 95K N A 1 99 6 K N A 1 99 7K N A 1 99 8K N A 19 99K N A 200 0K N A 200 1

K N A 2 00 2

K N A 2 00 3K N A 2 00 4K N A 200 5K N A 2 00 6K N A 2 007

K N A 20 08

K N A 2 00 9

LA O 1 99 6L A O 1 997

L A O 1 99 8L A O 1 999

L A O 200 0LA O 2 00 1L A O 2 002L A O 200 3

LA O 2 00 4L A O 2 005L A O 2 006L A O 200 7LA O 2 00 8LA O 2 00 9

LB N 199 3LB N 199 4L B N 1 995LB N 19 96L B N 19 97L B N 1 998L B N 19 99L B N 20 00L B N 20 01L B N 20 02L B N 20 03L B N 2004L B N 20 05L B N 20 06LB N 20 07LB N 2008

L B N 2 009L C A 19 81LC A 198 2LC A 198 3LC A 198 4 L C A 19 85LC A 198 6 L C A 19 87

L C A 19 88L C A 1989

LC A 19 90L C A 19 91L C A 19 92L C A 19 93LC A 19 94

L C A 19 95 LC A 19 96LC A 199 7

L C A 19 98

L C A 1 999LC A 200 0L C A 20 01

LC A 200 2L C A 20 03L C A 20 05L C A 2 006L C A 20 07LC A 20 08

LC A 200 9L K A 1 981L K A 19 82L K A 19 83L K A 19 84LK A 1985L K A 1 986

L K A 19 87L K A 19 88LK A 198 9L K A 1 990

LK A 1991

L K A 19 92LK A 1993L K A 19 94L K A 19 95LK A 1996LK A 19 97L K A 19 98L K A 19 99LK A 200 0L K A 20 01L K A 20 02

L K A 20 03LK A 200 4L K A 20 05LK A 200 6LK A 20 07L K A 20 08L K A 20 09

L S O 198 2L S O 19 83

LS O 1 98 4

LS O 1 98 5

L S O 1 98 6LS O 1 98 7

L S O 1 988 LS O 1 99 0

L S O 199 1L S O 199 2L S O 1 99 3

L S O 199 4L S O 19 95LS O 1 996L S O 19 97

LS O 1 99 8

L S O 1 99 9 LS O 2 00 0L S O 2 001

L S O 200 2

LS O 2 00 3L S O 200 4L S O 200 5L S O 2 00 6

L S O 20 07L S O 2 008LS O 2 00 9

M D G 1 98 2M D G 1 983M D G 198 4M D G 1 98 5M D G 1 986

M D G 1 98 7M D G 1 988

M D G 198 9M D G 1 990

M D G 1 99 1

M D G 1 99 2M D G 1 993M D G 1 994M D G 1 995M D G 1 99 6

M D G 1 997

M D G 1 998M D G 199 9

M D G 2 000M D G 20 01M D G 20 02M D G 20 03

M D G 20 04

M D G 2 00 5

M D G 20 06M D G 2 00 7

M D G 200 8

M D G 200 9

M D V 1994

M D V 19 95

M D V 19 96M D V 199 7M D V 19 98M D V 19 99M D V 20 00M D V 20 01M D V 20 02M D V 2003M D V 20 04

M D V 2 005

M D V 20 06 M D V 2007M D V 2 008M D V 20 09

M E X1 98 2M E X 19 83M E X 1 98 4M E X 198 5M E X 1 98 6M E X 1 987M E X 1 988M E X 198 9M E X 199 0M E X1 99 1M E X 1 992M E X 1 993M E X 1 994M E X1 99 5M E X 199 6

M E X 1 99 7M E X 199 8M E X1 99 9M E X 2 001M E X 2 002M E X 200 3M E X2 00 4M E X 2 00 5M E X 20 06M E X 2 007M E X 2 008M E X2 00 9M K D 200 2M K D 20 03M K D 20 04M K D 2005M K D 20 06M K D 20 07M K D 20 08M K D 20 09M L I1 981M L I1 982 M L I198 3

M L I1 98 4

M L I1 98 5

M L I19 86

M L I1 98 7M L I1 98 8M L I198 9

M L I1 990M L I19 91

M L I1 992M L I1 99 3

M L I1 99 4M L I1 99 5

M L I1 99 6M L I1 99 7

M L I1 998M L I1 99 9M L I200 0M L I2 001M L I2 00 2M L I20 03M L I200 4M L I200 5

M L I2 00 6M L I200 7M L I2 00 8M L I2 00 9

M N G 1 99 6

M N G 19 97

M N G 1 99 8

M N G 1 999M N G 2 00 0M N G 20 01

M N G 2 00 2M N G 2 00 3M N G 20 04

M N G 200 5M N G 2 00 6M N G 20 07M N G 2 00 8

M N G 2 00 9

M O Z 1 99 7M O Z 199 8

M O Z 19 99M O Z 2 00 0M O Z 2 00 1M O Z 2 003M O Z 200 4

M O Z 200 5

M O Z 2 006M O Z 2 00 7M O Z 20 08 M O Z 2 00 9

M R T 1 986

M R T 19 87M R T 198 8

M R T 1 989M R T 199 0

M R T 19 91

M R T 19 92

M R T 19 93

M R T 1 994M R T 19 95M R T 19 96M R T 19 97

M R T 19 98

M R T 199 9M R T 20 00

M R T 20 01

M R T 20 02

M R T 200 3

M R T 20 04M R T 20 05

M R T 200 6

M R T 20 07M R T 200 8M R T 200 9

M U S 1 981M U S 198 2M U S 19 83M U S 19 84M U S 19 85M U S 1986M U S 19 87M U S 19 88M U S 198 9M U S 1990M U S 19 91M U S 19 92M U S 19 93M U S 199 4M U S 1 995M U S 19 96M U S 19 97M U S 19 98M U S 199 9M U S 20 00M U S 20 01M U S 200 2M U S 2004M U S 2 005M U S 20 06M U S 20 07M U S 20 08M U S 20 09

M W I198 2M W I19 83

M W I19 84

M W I1 985

M W I19 86

M W I19 87

M W I19 88M W I19 89M W I19 90M W I19 91

M W I19 92

M W I19 93

M W I19 94

M W I19 95

M W I19 96

M W I199 7

M W I19 98M W I19 99M W I2000M W I20 01

M W I200 2

M W I200 3M W I20 04

M W I2 005M W I20 06M W I200 7

M W I200 8

M W I20 09

M YS 198 1M Y S 19 82M YS 198 3M Y S 19 84M YS 198 5M Y S 19 86M Y S 19 87M YS 1 988M Y S 19 89M Y S 199 0M Y S 19 91M YS 199 2M Y S 19 93M Y S 19 94M YS 199 5M YS 199 8M YS 1 999M Y S 20 00M YS 2 001M Y S 20 02M Y S 20 03M YS 2 004M Y S 20 05M YS 200 6M Y S 20 07M Y S 20 08M Y S 200 9N G A 198 2N G A 1 983N G A 19 84N G A 19 85N G A 1 986

N G A 1987N G A 19 88N G A 19 89

N G A 1 990N G A 19 91N G A 19 92N G A 1 993N G A 19 94N G A 199 5N G A 19 96

N G A 19 97N G A 199 8N G A 19 99N G A 200 0N G A 20 01N G A 20 02N G A 2 003N G A 20 04

N G A 2 005N G A 20 06

N G A 20 07N G A 2008N G A 20 09N P L1 982N P L19 83N P L19 84N P L 19 85N P L 19 86N P L 198 7N P L1 988

N P L19 89N P L 199 0N P L 199 1N P L1 992

N P L 19 93N P L 19 94N P L 19 95N P L1 996N P L19 97N P L19 98N P L 19 99N P L 2000N P L 20 01N P L20 02N P L 20 03N P L20 04N P L20 05N P L 20 06N P L 20 07N P L20 08N P L 20 09P A K 1 98 2P A K 19 83P A K 19 84P A K 19 85P A K 1 98 6P A K 1 98 7P A K 1 98 8P A K 198 9

P A K 1 990P A K 1 99 1P A K 1 992P A K 1 99 3P A K 1 99 4P A K 19 95P A K 1 996P A K 199 7P A K 1 998P A K 199 9P A K 20 00P A K 2 00 1P A K 20 02P A K 2 003P A K 200 4P A K 20 05P A K 2 006P A K 200 7P A K 200 8P A K 2 009P A N 1 982P A N 1 983P A N 19 84P A N 1 98 5P A N 198 6P A N 1 987P A N 19 88P A N 1 98 9P A N 1 99 0P A N 19 91P A N 1 99 2P A N 199 3P A N 1 994P A N 1 99 5P A N 199 6P A N 19 97P A N 1 99 8P A N 199 9P A N 2 00 0P A N 2 00 1P A N 2 00 2P A N 2 00 3P A N 2 00 4P A N 20 05P A N 20 06P A N 20 08P A N 2 00 9

P E R 198 2P E R 1 98 3P E R 1 98 4P E R 1 98 5P E R 1 98 6P E R 1 98 7

P E R 1 98 8P E R 1 98 9P E R 199 0P E R 1 99 1P E R 199 2P E R 1 993

P E R 1 99 4P E R 199 5P E R 1 996P E R 1 99 7P E R 19 98P E R 1 99 9P E R 2 00 0P E R 2 00 1P E R 20 02P E R 2 00 3P E R 2 00 4P E R 2 00 5P E R 2 00 6P E R 200 7P E R 2 00 8P E R 2 00 9

P H L 1981P H L 19 82P H L 19 83P H L1 984P H L 19 85P H L19 86P H L 198 7P H L1 988P H L 1989P H L19 90P H L 199 1P H L 199 2P H L 19 93

P H L 19 94P H L 19 95P H L19 96P H L 19 97P H L19 98P H L 19 99P H L 200 0P H L 20 01P H L 200 2P H L 20 03P H L20 04P H L20 05P H L 20 06P H L20 07 P H L 20 08P H L20 09

P N G 19 82P N G 19 83P N G 19 84P N G 19 85

P N G 198 6P N G 19 87P N G 19 88P N G 198 9P N G 19 90

P N G 199 1P N G 199 2

P N G 1 993P N G 199 4P N G 1 995P N G 19 96P N G 19 97

P N G 19 98P N G 1999P N G 20 00

P N G 20 01P N G 20 02P N G 2 003P N G 200 4

P N G 20 05P N G 200 6P N G 20 07P N G 200 8P N G 20 09P R Y 1 98 2P R Y 198 3P R Y 198 4P R Y 19 85P R Y1 98 6P R Y1 98 7P R Y 19 88P R Y 19 89

P R Y 1 99 0P R Y 19 91P R Y 19 92P R Y 199 3P R Y 19 94

P R Y 19 95P R Y 1 99 6P R Y 19 97P R Y 1 99 8P R Y 1 999P R Y 2 000P R Y2 00 1P R Y 200 2P R Y 200 3P R Y 2 00 4P R Y 2 005P R Y2 00 6P R Y 200 7P R Y2 00 8P R Y2 00 9

R W A 1 98 2R W A 1 98 3R W A 1 984R W A 1 985R W A 1 98 6R W A 1 98 7R W A 1 988R W A 19 89R W A 1 990

R W A 199 1R W A 19 92R W A 1 99 3

R W A 19 96

R W A 1 99 7

R W A 1 99 8R W A 19 99R W A 20 00R W A 200 1

R W A 200 2

R W A 2 003

R W A 2 00 4R W A 2 005R W A 2 006R W A 200 7R W A 2 00 8

R W A 200 9

S D N 19 98S D N 1 99 9S D N 200 0S D N 2 00 1S D N 2 002S D N 2 00 3

S D N 2 004S D N 200 5S D N 2 006S D N 20 07S D N 200 8S D N 200 9

S E N 1 98 2S E N 1 98 3

S E N 1 98 4

S E N 1 985

S E N 19 86S E N 19 87S E N 1 98 8S E N 1 98 9S E N 1 99 0

S E N 1 991S E N 199 2S E N 1 99 3

S E N 1 99 4S E N 1 99 5S E N 1 996

S E N 1 997S E N 199 8S E N 1 999S E N 2 00 0S E N 20 01S E N 2 00 2

S E N 20 03

S E N 2 00 4

S E N 200 5S E N 200 6S E N 2 00 7S E N 2 008S E N 2 00 9

S L B 19 81S L B 19 82 S LB 1 983

S L B 19 84S LB 1 985

S LB 1986

S L B 19 87

S L B 19 88

S L B 19 89S L B 19 90S L B 19 91S L B 19 92

S L B 19 93

S LB 1 994S L B 19 95S L B 19 96S LB 199 7S L B 19 98S L B 19 99

S L B 20 00S L B 20 01

S LB 2 002

S L B 20 03

S L B 20 04

S L B 20 05S LB 2006S LB 2 007

S L B 20 08S L B 20 09

S L E 19 82 S L E 19 83S L E 19 84S L E 19 85

S LE 1986

S L E 19 87S L E 19 88

S L E 19 89S L E 19 90

S L E 19 91

S LE 199 2

S LE 1 993S L E 19 94

S LE 1 995

S LE 1996

S LE 1997S LE 19 98

S L E 19 99

S L E 200 0

S L E 20 01S L E 20 02

S L E 20 03S L E 200 4

S L E 20 05S L E 20 06

S L E 20 07

S L E 200 8

S L E 20 09

S L V 19 82S LV 1 983

S LV 1984S LV 1 985S L V 19 86S L V 19 87S LV 1988S L V 19 89

S LV 199 0S L V 19 91S LV 1 992S LV 199 3S L V 19 94S LV 1 995S L V 19 96S L V 19 97S LV 1998S LV 199 9S L V 20 00S L V 20 01S LV 2 002S LV 2003S L V 20 04S L V 20 05S L V 20 06S LV 2 007S L V 20 08S L V 20 09S W Z 1 982S W Z 198 3S W Z 1 98 4S W Z 1 98 5S W Z 1 986S W Z 198 7

S W Z 1 98 8S W Z 19 89S W Z 199 0S W Z 1 99 1S W Z 1 99 2S W Z 19 93S W Z 1 99 4S W Z 199 5S W Z 1 996S W Z 1 99 7S W Z 1 998S W Z 199 9S W Z 2 00 0S W Z 2 00 1S W Z 2 002S W Z 2 003S W Z 2 00 4S W Z 2 005S W Z 2 006S W Z 2 007S W Z 2 00 8S W Z 200 9S Y C 1 98 1

S Y C 19 82S YC 198 3S Y C 1 984

S Y C 1 98 5S Y C 19 86

S YC 1 98 7S YC 1 98 8S Y C 19 89

S Y C 1 990S Y C 1 99 1

S Y C 1 99 2S Y C 1 99 3S YC 199 4S Y C 1 995

S YC 199 6S YC 199 7S Y C 1 99 8S Y C 1 999S YC 200 0S Y C 2 001S Y C 2 00 2S Y C 20 03S Y C 2 00 4S Y C 2 005S Y C 2 006S YC 200 7S Y C 2 00 8S YC 2 00 9

S Y R 1 98 2S Y R 1 983S Y R 1 984S Y R 1 98 5S YR 1 98 6S Y R 1 98 7

S YR 198 8S Y R 1 98 9

S Y R 1 99 0S Y R 1 99 1

S Y R 19 92S Y R 1 99 3

S Y R 19 94S YR 199 5S Y R 1 996S Y R 1 997S Y R 1 998S YR 199 9S YR 200 0S Y R 2 001S Y R 2 002S Y R 2 00 3S Y R 2 00 4S YR 200 5S Y R 2 00 6S Y R 2 007S Y R 2 00 8S Y R 2 009

T C D 1 98 2T C D 1 983T C D 198 4

T C D 1 98 5T C D 1 98 6

T C D 1 98 7T C D 1 98 8 T C D 1 989T C D 1 990T C D 199 1

T C D 1 99 2T C D 1 99 3

T C D 1 994T C D 1 995

T C D 19 96T C D 1 99 7

T C D 19 98T C D 1 999

T C D 2 000T C D 2 00 1T C D 2 00 2T C D 20 03T C D 2 00 4T C D 2 00 5

T C D 2 00 6T C D 2 00 7T C D 200 8T C D 2 009

T G O 19 82

T G O 1 983 T G O 1 98 4T G O 1 98 5T G O 1 986

T G O 19 87

T G O 1 988 T G O 1 98 9T G O 1 990T G O 1 99 1T G O 1 992

T G O 199 3

T G O 199 4T G O 1 99 5

T G O 1 99 6T G O 199 7T G O 1 99 8T G O 1 99 9T G O 2 00 0T G O 200 1T G O 2 002T G O 20 03T G O 2 004T G O 200 5T G O 200 6

T G O 2 007

T G O 20 08

T G O 2 00 9

T H A 1 98 1T H A 1 98 2T H A 19 83T H A 1 98 4T H A 1 98 5T H A 19 86T H A 1 987T H A 198 8T H A 198 9T H A 1 990T H A 1 991T H A 1 99 2T H A 199 3T H A 1 99 4T H A 199 5T H A 199 6T H A 19 97T H A 1 99 8T H A 1 99 9T H A 2 00 0T H A 200 1T H A 20 02T H A 200 4

T J K 19 94

T JK 19 95

T J K 19 96T J K 199 7

T J K 19 98 T J K 19 99T J K 20 00T J K 20 01

T J K 20 02

T JK 2003T JK 2004T JK 2 005

T J K 20 06T J K 20 07T J K 20 08

T J K 20 09T K M 199 6T K M 199 7

T K M 199 8 T K M 19 99T K M 2 000T K M 20 01T K M 20 02T K M 200 3T K M 20 04T K M 20 05T K M 20 06T K M 20 07T K M 200 8T K M 20 09 T U N 1 990T U N 1 991T U N 1 99 2T U N 19 93

T U N 1 99 4T U N 1 99 5T U N 1 996T U N 19 97T U N 1 99 8T U N 1 99 9T U N 2 00 0T U N 2 00 1T U N 2 00 2T U N 20 03T U N 200 4T U N 200 5T U N 200 6T U N 2 00 7T U N 2 008T U N 200 9

T U R 1 99 0T U R 1 991T U R 199 2T U R 19 93T U R 199 4T U R 19 95T U R 1 99 6T U R 19 98T U R 2 000T U R 2 00 1T U R 200 2T U R 2 003T U R 2 00 4T U R 20 05T U R 200 6T U R 20 07T U R 2 008T U R 2 00 9T Z A 1 988T Z A 198 9

T Z A 1 990

T Z A 199 1

T Z A 1 992

T Z A 1 993T Z A 1 994

T Z A 1 99 5T Z A 1 996T Z A 1 99 7T Z A 1 99 8T Z A 1 99 9T Z A 2 00 0T Z A 2 001T Z A 2 00 2

T Z A 2 003T Z A 2 004

T Z A 200 5T Z A 2 00 6

T Z A 2 00 7

T Z A 2 008T Z A 20 09U G A 19 82

U G A 1 983U G A 19 84U G A 19 85U G A 19 86U G A 1 987U G A 19 88

U G A 19 89

U G A 19 90

U G A 19 91

U G A 19 92

U G A 19 93U G A 19 94U G A 1 995

U G A 19 96U G A 19 97

U G A 1 998U G A 19 99

U G A 2 000U G A 20 01U G A 20 02

U G A 20 03U G A 20 04U G A 20 05

U G A 200 6U G A 20 07U G A 20 08U G A 2009U R Y 1 982U R Y1 98 3

U R Y 1 984U R Y 1 985U R Y1 98 6U R Y 198 7U R Y1 98 8U R Y 19 89U R Y1 99 0U R Y 199 1U R Y 1 99 2U R Y 1 993U R Y 19 94U R Y1 99 5U R Y1 99 6U R Y 1 99 7U R Y 19 98U R Y1 99 9U R Y 2 000U R Y2 00 1U R Y 2 002 U R Y2 00 3U R Y 200 4U R Y 200 5U R Y 2 00 6U R Y 2 007U R Y2 00 8U R Y2 00 9U Z B 1 99 6

U Z B 1 99 7U Z B 1 99 8U Z B 199 9U Z B 2 000U Z B 20 01U Z B 2 002U Z B 2 00 3U Z B 2 00 4U Z B 20 05U Z B 2 006U Z B 2 00 7U Z B 2 008U Z B 2 00 9

V C T 19 81V C T 1 982

V C T 1 983V C T 19 84 V C T 19 85

V C T 1 98 6V C T 1 98 7 V C T 1 98 8V C T 1 98 9

V C T 1 99 0V C T 1 991V C T 1 992V C T 1 993

V C T 199 4

V C T 199 5

V C T 1 996

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V C T 199 8V C T 199 9

V C T 200 0V C T 200 1V C T 200 2V C T 2 003V C T 2 004V C T 2 00 5V C T 200 6

V C T 2 007

V C T 2 00 8V C T 2 00 9V E N 1 98 2V E N 1 98 3V E N 1 984V E N 198 5V E N 198 6V E N 1 98 7V E N 1 98 8V E N 1 989V E N 1 99 0V E N 19 91V E N 199 2V E N 1 99 3V E N 1 994V E N 1 995

V E N 1 99 6V E N 19 97V E N 19 98V E N 1 999V E N 200 0V E N 200 1V E N 2 00 2V E N 2 003V E N 2 004V E N 200 5V E N 20 06V E N 2 007V E N 200 8V E N 200 9

V N M 19 90V N M 19 91V N M 19 92

V N M 1 993V N M 19 94V N M 19 95V N M 19 96V N M 19 97V N M 19 98V N M 19 99V N M 2000

V N M 20 01V N M 200 2V N M 20 03V N M 20 04V N M 2 005V N M 20 06V N M 20 07V N M 2 008V N M 20 09 W S M 19 82

W S M 19 83

W S M 19 84W S M 198 5

W S M 198 6

W S M 198 7

W S M 19 88W S M 19 89

W S M 1990W S M 199 2W S M 199 3

W S M 1 994W S M 1 995

W S M 19 96W S M 19 97

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W S M 1 999W S M 20 00

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W S M 2005W S M 200 6W S M 200 7 W S M 2 008

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Y E M 1 997Y E M 1998Y E M 19 99

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A R G 19 82

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A R G 19 86A R G 1987A R G 198 8A R G 1989

A R G 19 90A R G 19 91A R G 19 92A R G 1993A R G 1 994

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B D I1 99 8B D I19 99

B D I2 000B D I2 00 1

B D I2 002 B D I20 03

B D I2 00 5B D I2 006B D I20 07

B D I200 8B D I20 09B E N 1 98 7B E N 1 988 B E N 198 9

B E N 1 99 0B E N 1 991

B E N 1 99 2B E N 1 99 3

B E N 1 99 4

B E N 1 99 5

B E N 1 99 6B E N 1 99 7

B E N 1 99 8B E N 19 99B E N 2 00 0B E N 2 00 1B E N 2 002

B E N 2 00 3B E N 200 4B E N 200 5B E N 20 06B E N 2 00 7B E N 2 00 8B E N 2 00 9B F A 198 2B F A 1 98 3B F A 1 98 4B F A 198 5B F A 19 86B F A 19 87B F A 19 88B F A 1 98 9

B F A 1 99 0B F A 19 91 B F A 1 992B F A 19 93

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B F A 1 99 5B F A 1 99 6B F A 1 997

B F A 1 99 8B F A 1 99 9B F A 2 00 0B F A 200 1B F A 2 00 2B F A 20 03

B F A 2 00 4B F A 2 005B F A 2 00 6B F A 2 00 7B F A 200 8B F A 20 09B G D 19 99B G D 200 0B G D 2001B G D 20 02B G D 20 03B G D 20 04B G D 200 5B G D 20 06B G D 200 7B G D 20 08B G D 2 009B IH 2 00 2B IH 2 00 3B IH 2 00 4B IH 2 00 5B IH 2 00 6B IH 2 00 7B IH 2 00 8B IH 2 009B L Z 19 82B LZ 198 3B L Z 19 84B L Z 19 85

B LZ 198 6B LZ 1987B LZ 1 988B LZ 1 989B LZ 199 0B L Z 19 91B L Z 19 92B L Z 19 93B L Z 199 4B LZ 1 995B L Z 19 96B L Z 19 97B L Z 19 98B L Z 19 99B L Z 20 00B L Z 20 01B L Z 20 02B LZ 2003B L Z 20 04B LZ 200 5B L Z 20 06B LZ 20 07B L Z 20 08B LZ 20 09B O L 198 2

B O L1 98 3

B O L1 98 4

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B O L1 987

B O L 198 8B O L1 98 9B O L19 90

B O L 199 1B O L1 992B O L199 3B O L1 99 4B O L1 995B O L19 96B O L1 997

B O L 199 8B O L1 99 9B O L2 00 0B O L2 001B O L2 002B O L 200 3B O L 200 4B O L 200 5B O L2 00 6B O L2 007

B O L 200 8B O L 200 9B R A 1 982

B R A 198 3

B R A 1 98 4B R A 19 85B R A 1 986B R A 1 987

B R A 198 8

B R A 1 98 9B R A 199 0

B R A 199 1

B R A 1 99 3B R A 1 99 4B R A 1 995B R A 1 99 6B R A 1 99 7B R A 1 998

B R A 199 9

B R A 20 00

B R A 20 01

B R A 200 2B R A 2 00 3B R A 200 4B R A 20 05

B R A 2 00 6B R A 200 7B R A 2 00 8B R A 200 9B T N 2 006B T N 2 00 7B T N 200 9 B W A 1 98 2B W A 1 98 3

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B W A 1 986B W A 198 7B W A 19 88B W A 1 989B W A 1 99 0

B W A 19 91B W A 1 99 2B W A 1 99 3B W A 1 994B W A 199 5B W A 19 96B W A 199 7B W A 199 8B W A 1 99 9B W A 20 00B W A 20 01B W A 2 00 2B W A 2 00 3

B W A 2 004B W A 2 00 5B W A 200 6B W A 2 00 7B W A 200 8B W A 2 00 9

C A F 1 982C A F 198 3 C A F 1 98 4C A F 1 985

C A F 1 986C A F 198 7C A F 1 98 8C A F 1 989

C A F 1 99 0C A F 1 99 1

C A F 1 992C A F 199 3

C A F 1 99 4

C A F 19 95

C A F 19 96C A F 1 997C A F 1 998C A F 1 999C A F 2 00 0C A F 2 00 1C A F 200 2C A F 2 00 3C A F 200 4C A F 2 005C A F 200 6C A F 2 007C A F 2 00 8C A F 2 00 9C H L 1984

C H L 1985C H L 198 7C H L19 88C H L 19 89C H L1 990C H L 199 1C H L 19 92C H L19 93C H L 199 4C H L1 995C H L 19 96C H L 19 97C H L 19 98C H L1 999C H L2 000

C H L20 01C H L20 03C H L 20 04C H L20 05C H L 20 06C H L 20 07C H L 20 08C H L 20 09C H N 1 98 2C H N 1 98 3C H N 1 984C H N 19 85

C H N 1 986C H N 19 87C H N 1 98 8C H N 1 989

C H N 1 99 0

C H N 19 91C H N 199 2C H N 19 93

C H N 199 4

C H N 1 99 5C H N 1 996C H N 1 99 7C H N 19 98

C H N 1 999C H N 2 00 0C H N 200 1C H N 2 00 2C H N 20 03C H N 2 00 4C H N 2 00 5C H N 2 006C H N 2 007C H N 2 00 8C H N 2 00 9C IV 1 98 2C IV 1 98 3

C IV 198 4C IV 1 985

C IV 1 986C IV 198 7

C IV 1 98 8C IV 198 9C IV 1 990

C IV 199 1C IV 1 99 2

C IV 19 93

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C IV 1 995

C IV 199 6C IV 1 997C IV 19 98C IV 199 9

C IV 2 00 0C IV 2 00 1 C IV 2 00 2C IV 2 003C IV 2 004C IV 2 005C IV 20 06C IV 2 00 7C IV 2 00 8 C IV 200 9C M R 198 2C M R 19 83C M R 19 84C M R 19 85

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C M R 1996C M R 19 97C M R 19 98C M R 19 99C M R 20 00

C M R 20 01C M R 200 2C M R 20 03C M R 20 04C M R 20 05 C M R 20 06C M R 20 07C M R 200 8C M R 20 09C O G 1 981C O G 1 98 2C O G 1 983

C O G 1 98 4C O G 1 985

C O G 1 98 6C O G 1 98 7C O G 1 988C O G 1 98 9C O G 1 99 0C O G 199 1C O G 1 992C O G 1 993

C O G 1 994

C O G 1 99 5C O G 1 99 6C O G 1 99 7C O G 19 98C O G 1 99 9

C O G 2 00 0C O G 200 1C O G 20 02C O G 2 00 3C O G 200 4

C O G 20 05C O G 2 006C O G 200 7C O G 20 08C O G 2 009C O L1 98 2C O L1 98 3C O L1 98 4

C O L1 98 5C O L19 86

C O L 198 7C O L1 98 8C O L 198 9C O L1 990C O L1 99 1C O L1 99 2C O L1 99 3

C O L1 994

C O L1 995C O L1 99 6C O L19 97C O L1 998C O L1 99 9C O L2 00 0C O L20 01C O L2 00 2C O L2 00 3

C O L20 04C O L2 00 5C O L2 00 6

C O L 200 7C O L2 00 8C O L2 00 9 C O M 1 98 2C O M 198 6

C O M 19 87C O M 19 88C O M 1 98 9C O M 1 99 0 C O M 199 1C O M 1 99 2C O M 1 993

C O M 19 94

C O M 1 99 5C O M 19 96

C O M 1 99 7C O M 1 99 8C O M 1 999C O M 2 00 0C O M 2 00 1C O M 200 2C O M 2 00 3C O M 200 4

C O M 2 00 5C O M 2 00 6C O M 2 00 7C O M 2 00 8C O M 200 9C P V 1 99 3

C P V 1 99 4C P V 199 5C P V 19 96C P V 1 99 7C P V 19 98C P V 1 99 9

C P V 2 00 0C P V 2 00 1C P V 200 2C P V 2 003

C P V 2 00 4C P V 2 00 5C P V 2 00 6C P V 2 00 7C P V 2 008C P V 20 09 C R I1 98 2C R I19 83C R I1 98 4C R I19 85C R I198 6C R I1 98 7

C R I1 98 8C R I1 989C R I19 90

C R I1 991C R I199 2C R I199 3C R I1 99 4C R I199 5C R I1 99 8C R I2 000C R I2 003C R I2 004C R I2 005C R I2 00 6C R I2 00 7C R I20 08C R I2 00 9D J I1 992

D J I19 93D J I1 994D J I19 95

D JI19 96D J I19 97D JI19 98D J I19 99D JI20 00D J I200 1D J I20 02D JI20 03D J I20 04D JI20 05 D J I2 006D J I20 07D J I2 008D JI20 09

D M A 19 81D M A 19 82D M A 1983 D M A 19 84D M A 19 85D M A 19 86D M A 19 87D M A 1 988D M A 1989D M A 1990D M A 19 91D M A 19 92D M A 19 93D M A 19 94

D M A 19 95 D M A 19 96D M A 19 97D M A 19 98D M A 199 9D M A 20 00D M A 2 001D M A 20 02D M A 20 03D M A 20 04D M A 20 05D M A 2 006D M A 20 07D M A 2 008D M A 20 09D O M 1 98 2D O M 1 98 3

D O M 1 98 4

D O M 198 5

D O M 1 986D O M 1 987D O M 1 98 8

D O M 1 98 9

D O M 1 99 0D O M 1 99 1D O M 199 2D O M 1 994D O M 1 995D O M 1 99 6D O M 19 97D O M 1 99 8D O M 1 999D O M 20 00D O M 2 00 1D O M 2 00 2

D O M 20 03

D O M 200 4D O M 2 00 5

D O M 2 006D O M 2 007D O M 200 8D O M 2 009E C U 198 2E C U 198 3

E C U 19 84

E C U 1 98 5

E C U 1 986E C U 1 98 7E C U 1 988

E C U 1 98 9

E C U 199 0E C U 1 99 1E C U 1 99 2E C U 19 93E C U 1 99 4

E C U 1 99 5E C U 1 99 6E C U 199 7E C U 19 98

E C U 1 99 9

E C U 2 00 0

E C U 2 00 1

E C U 2 00 2E C U 2 00 3E C U 2 004E C U 2 005E C U 2 00 6E C U 2 007E C U 2 00 8E C U 2 00 9E G Y 199 3E G Y 19 94E G Y 19 95E G Y 199 6E G Y 19 97E G Y19 98E G Y 19 99E G Y 20 00

E G Y 200 1E G Y 200 2

E G Y 20 03

E G Y 20 04E G Y20 05E G Y 20 06E G Y2 007E G Y 2008E G Y 20 09

E R I1 99 4E R I1 995E R I1 996E R I199 7 E R I19 98E R I19 99

E R I200 0E R I2 00 1

E R I200 2

E R I20 03

E R I2 00 4

E R I2 00 5E R I2 006

E R I2 007E R I200 8

E R I2 00 9

E T H 1 98 2E T H 1 98 3E T H 1 98 4E T H 198 5

E T H 1 98 6E T H 198 7

E T H 198 8E T H 198 9E T H 1 99 0

E T H 199 1

E T H 1 99 2

E T H 199 3

E T H 199 4E T H 1 995E T H 19 96

E T H 1 99 7E T H 1 99 8E T H 19 99E T H 20 00E T H 20 01

E T H 2 00 2E T H 2 003

E T H 2 00 4E T H 20 05E T H 2 00 6E T H 2 00 7

E T H 2 008

E T H 2 00 9F J I1 982F JI19 83F J I1 984F J I1 985F J I1 986

F J I19 87F J I19 88F J I19 89F J I1990F J I19 91F J I19 92F J I1 993F JI19 94F J I19 95F J I19 96F J I1997

F JI19 98

F J I1 999F JI20 00F JI20 01F JI20 02F JI20 03

F J I20 04F J I20 05F J I200 6F J I200 7F J I20 08F JI20 09

G A B 19 82G A B 19 83G A B 19 84G A B 198 5G A B 19 86G A B 19 87

G A B 19 88

G A B 19 89G A B 19 90

G A B 19 91G A B 19 92G A B 19 93

G A B 19 94

G A B 19 95

G A B 19 96G A B 19 97G A B 19 98G A B 19 99G A B 2 000G A B 20 01G A B 20 02G A B 20 04G A B 2005G A B 20 06G A B 20 07G A B 20 08G A B 200 9G E O 1 99 6

G E O 1 99 7G E O 1 998G E O 1 99 9

G E O 2 00 0G E O 2 001G E O 2 002G E O 2 00 3

G E O 2 00 4G E O 2 00 5G E O 20 06G E O 200 7G E O 2 008

G E O 2 00 9

G H A 198 2

G H A 19 83

G H A 1984

G H A 19 85

G H A 198 6G H A 198 7

G H A 19 88G H A 19 89G H A 199 0G H A 19 91

G H A 19 92G H A 19 93G H A 199 4

G H A 19 95G H A 1 996G H A 19 97

G H A 19 98G H A 19 99

G H A 20 00

G H A 2001G H A 20 02G H A 20 03G H A 200 4G H A 20 05G H A 2006G H A 20 07

G H A 2 008G H A 20 09

G IN 19 88G IN 19 89

G IN 199 0

G IN 1 991G IN 19 92

G IN 1 993G IN 19 94G IN 19 95G IN 19 96G IN 1 997G IN 1 998G IN 19 99

G IN 20 00G IN 20 01G IN 20 02G IN 20 03G IN 20 04

G IN 20 05G IN 2 006

G IN 20 07

G IN 20 08G IN 20 09 G M B 198 2G M B 198 3 G M B 19 84

G M B 1 985G M B 1 98 7G M B 1 988

G M B 1 98 9G M B 199 0G M B 199 1G M B 1 992G M B 199 3G M B 1 99 4G M B 1 995G M B 1 99 6G M B 199 7G M B 1 99 8G M B 1 999G M B 2 00 0

G M B 2 00 1G M B 2 002G M B 2 00 3

G M B 20 04G M B 2 00 5G M B 2 00 6

G M B 2 007G M B 200 8G M B 2 00 9

G N B 19 95G N B 199 7G N B 19 98

G N B 19 99 G N B 20 00G N B 20 01G N B 2 002G N B 2003G N B 2 004G N B 20 05G N B 20 06G N B 200 7G N B 2 008G N B 20 09 G T M 1 982G T M 1 98 3G T M 1 984

G T M 1 98 5

G T M 19 86G T M 198 7G T M 198 8G T M 198 9

G T M 199 0

G T M 1 99 1G T M 199 2G T M 19 93

G T M 199 4G T M 1 99 5G T M 1 996G T M 19 97G T M 19 98

G T M 1 999G T M 20 00G T M 200 1G T M 2 00 2G T M 2 00 3G T M 2 00 4G T M 2 00 5G T M 2 00 6G T M 2 00 7G T M 2 00 8

G T M 2 00 9

G U Y 1982G U Y 19 83G U Y 198 4G U Y19 85G U Y 198 6

G U Y1 987

G U Y 19 88

G U Y 19 89

G U Y19 90

G U Y 19 95 G U Y 19 96 G U Y 19 97G U Y19 98G U Y19 99G U Y 2000

G U Y2 001G U Y 20 02G U Y 20 03 G U Y 20 04G U Y2 005G U Y 20 06G U Y20 07G U Y 200 8G U Y2 009H N D 1 982H N D 19 83H N D 19 84H N D 198 5H N D 1 986H N D 198 7H N D 1 98 8H N D 19 89

H N D 1 990

H N D 1 99 1H N D 1 99 2H N D 1 99 3H N D 199 4H N D 19 95H N D 1 99 6

H N D 19 97H N D 1 99 8 H N D 199 9H N D 200 0H N D 2 001H N D 2 002H N D 20 03H N D 2 00 4H N D 2 00 5H N D 2 00 6H N D 20 07H N D 2 00 8H N D 2 00 9H T I1 99 1

H T I19 92H T I19 93

H T I1 99 4H T I1 995H T I199 6

H T I1 99 7H T I1 99 8H T I1 99 9

H T I2 00 0H T I2 00 1H T I20 02H T I20 03

H T I2 00 4

H T I2 00 5H T I200 6H T I20 07

H T I2 00 8H T I2 009ID N 198 1ID N 19 82

ID N 1 983

ID N 198 4ID N 198 5ID N 1 98 6ID N 1 98 7

ID N 1 98 8ID N 19 89ID N 199 0ID N 19 91ID N 19 92ID N 1 99 3ID N 199 4ID N 1 99 5

ID N 1 996ID N 1 99 7

ID N 1 99 8

ID N 1 99 9

ID N 200 0ID N 2 001

ID N 20 02ID N 2 003ID N 2 00 4ID N 2 00 5

ID N 2 00 6ID N 2 00 7ID N 20 08

ID N 200 9IN D 1 98 2IN D 19 83IN D 19 84IN D 19 85IN D 1 986IN D 1 98 7IN D 1 988IN D 1 98 9

IN D 1 99 0IN D 1 99 1IN D 199 2

IN D 1 993IN D 1 99 4

IN D 1 99 5IN D 1 99 6IN D 1 99 7IN D 1 998IN D 1 99 9IN D 200 0IN D 2 00 1IN D 200 2IN D 200 3IN D 200 4IN D 2 00 5IN D 2 00 6

IN D 2 00 7IN D 2 00 8

IN D 2 00 9IR N 198 1IR N 1 983

IR N 1 984

IR N 1 98 5

IR N 1 986

IR N 1 98 7

IR N 1 988

IR N 198 9IR N 199 0

IR N 1 993IR N 199 4

IR N 19 95

IR N 19 96IR N 199 7IR N 1 99 8

IR N 1 999

IR N 20 00IR N 20 01IR N 2 002IR N 2 00 3IR N 2 004IR N 200 5IR N 2 00 6IR N 20 07IR N 2 00 8IR N 2 00 9J A M 198 2J A M 198 3

J A M 198 4

J A M 1 985

J A M 1 986JA M 1 98 7JA M 1 98 8JA M 1 98 9

JA M 1 99 0J A M 1 991J A M 199 2

J A M 1 99 3J A M 1 994JA M 1 995

JA M 1 99 6J A M 1 997J A M 19 98J A M 2 00 0J A M 2 001J A M 20 02JA M 2 00 3

J A M 2 004J A M 2 005JA M 2 00 6J A M 200 7JA M 2 00 8J A M 20 09

J O R 19 82JO R 1 98 3JO R 1 98 4J O R 198 5JO R 1 986J O R 1 987J O R 198 8JO R 1 98 9

J O R 1 990J O R 199 1J O R 1 992J O R 199 3J O R 1 994

JO R 1 99 5JO R 1 99 6JO R 1 99 7JO R 1 998J O R 199 9J O R 2 000J O R 200 1J O R 200 2 JO R 2 00 3JO R 2 00 4J O R 200 5J O R 2 006JO R 2 00 7J O R 2 008J O R 20 09K A Z 1 99 6K A Z 1 997

K A Z 1 99 8

K A Z 19 99K A Z 2 00 0K A Z 2 00 1K A Z 2 002K A Z 2 003K A Z 2 004K A Z 2 005

K A Z 2 00 6K A Z 2 00 7K A Z 20 08K A Z 2 00 9K E N 198 2

K E N 1 983K E N 1 98 4

K E N 1 985K E N 198 6K E N 1 98 7K E N 1 98 8K E N 1 989K E N 1 990K E N 199 1K E N 1 99 2

K E N 1 99 3

K E N 199 4

K E N 1 99 5K E N 199 6K E N 1 997K E N 1 998K E N 199 9

K E N 2 00 0K E N 2 00 1K E N 2 002K E N 200 3K E N 2 004K E N 2 00 5K E N 2 00 6K E N 2 00 7K E N 2 00 8K E N 2 00 9K G Z 19 96

K G Z 199 7K G Z 19 98K G Z 2000K G Z 20 01K G Z 2 002K G Z 20 03K G Z 20 04K G Z 20 05K G Z 20 06K G Z 20 07K G Z 20 08

K G Z 20 09K H M 199 6

K H M 19 97K H M 1 998K H M 19 99K H M 20 00K H M 20 01K H M 20 02K H M 2 003K H M 2004K H M 20 05K H M 20 06K H M 2 007K H M 20 08

K H M 20 09K N A 1 98 1K N A 198 2K N A 198 3K N A 198 4K N A 1 98 5

K N A 198 6K N A 1 98 7K N A 19 88K N A 1 98 9K N A 1 99 0K N A 1 99 1K N A 1 99 2K N A 199 3K N A 19 94

K N A 1 995K N A 1 99 6K N A 1 99 7K N A 1 998K N A 1 99 9K N A 20 00K N A 200 1K N A 2 002K N A 2 00 3K N A 2 00 4K N A 200 5K N A 2 00 6K N A 2 007 K N A 2 00 8K N A 2 00 9

LA O 1 99 6LA O 1 997

LA O 1 99 8

L A O 19 99L A O 2 000L A O 2 00 1LA O 2 00 2L A O 2 00 3L A O 2 004L A O 2 00 5L A O 2 006LA O 2 00 7LA O 2 00 8LA O 2 00 9L B N 19 93

L B N 19 94L B N 19 95LB N 19 96L B N 19 97LB N 1998L B N 19 99L B N 20 00L B N 20 01LB N 2002L B N 20 03L B N 20 04L B N 20 05L B N 20 06L B N 20 07L B N 20 08

L B N 20 09LC A 19 81L C A 19 82L C A 19 83LC A 198 4LC A 19 85L C A 1 986LC A 19 87L C A 19 88

L C A 19 89LC A 19 90L C A 1991LC A 1992L C A 19 93L C A 19 94L C A 1 995LC A 199 6L C A 19 97LC A 199 8L C A 19 99L C A 20 00L C A 20 01L C A 2 002L C A 2 003LC A 20 05L C A 20 06LC A 2007LC A 2008L C A 2 009

L K A 19 81L K A 19 82L K A 19 83

L K A 19 84L K A 1 985L K A 19 86L K A 19 87LK A 1988L K A 1 989L K A 19 90LK A 19 91L K A 1 992L K A 19 93LK A 199 4

L K A 19 95LK A 199 6LK A 199 7LK A 19 98LK A 199 9L K A 20 00LK A 200 1L K A 20 02L K A 2 003L K A 20 04

L K A 20 05L K A 20 06L K A 20 07L K A 2 008L K A 2 009 L S O 198 2L S O 198 3L S O 1 98 4L S O 198 5

L S O 198 6LS O 1 98 7LS O 1 98 8LS O 1 99 0L S O 1 99 1L S O 1 992L S O 1 993LS O 1 99 4LS O 1 99 5

L S O 199 6L S O 1 997LS O 1 99 8L S O 1 999LS O 2 000

L S O 200 1

LS O 2 00 2

L S O 20 03

LS O 2 00 4L S O 2 005L S O 200 6L S O 20 07

LS O 2 00 8

L S O 2 00 9M D G 19 82M D G 1 983M D G 1 98 4

M D G 1 98 5M D G 1 98 6

M D G 1 98 7

M D G 1 98 8M D G 19 89M D G 1 99 0

M D G 199 1

M D G 1 99 2M D G 199 3M D G 19 94M D G 1 99 5

M D G 1 99 6

M D G 1 99 7

M D G 1 99 8M D G 1 999

M D G 2 00 0M D G 200 1M D G 200 2

M D G 200 3

M D G 20 04

M D G 2 00 5M D G 2 006

M D G 2 00 7M D G 200 8M D G 20 09M D V 19 94 M D V 19 95

M D V 1 996M D V 19 97M D V 19 98M D V 1 999M D V 2 000M D V 20 01M D V 20 02M D V 200 3M D V 200 4M D V 20 05M D V 20 06M D V 20 07M D V 20 08

M D V 200 9

M E X 198 2

M E X 1 983

M E X1 98 4M E X1 98 5

M E X 19 86

M E X1 98 7

M E X 198 8M E X 1 98 9M E X 1 990M E X 19 91M E X1 99 2M E X1 99 3M E X1 99 4

M E X 1 995

M E X1 99 6M E X 19 97M E X 19 98M E X 1 999M E X 2 001M E X2 00 2M E X 200 3M E X 200 4M E X2 00 5M E X 200 6M E X 200 7M E X2 00 8M E X 2 00 9

M K D 20 02M K D 2 003M K D 20 04M K D 20 05M K D 20 06M K D 2 007M K D 2 008M K D 20 09M L I19 81M L I1 982M L I1 98 3 M L I1 984M L I1 98 5M L I1 98 6

M L I1 98 7M L I1 98 8

M L I1 989M L I199 0M L I199 1M L I1 99 2M L I1 993

M L I19 94M L I19 95M L I1 99 6M L I1 99 7

M L I199 8M L I1 99 9M L I2 000

M L I200 1M L I2 002M L I200 3M L I200 4M L I2 00 5M L I2 00 6M L I200 7M L I200 8M L I2 00 9 M N G 199 6

M N G 1 99 7M N G 199 8

M N G 1 999

M N G 2 000M N G 20 01M N G 2 002M N G 200 3M N G 2 004M N G 2 00 5M N G 2 00 6M N G 200 7M N G 2 008

M N G 2 00 9M O Z 19 97M O Z 1 99 8M O Z 1 999M O Z 2 000

M O Z 2 001M O Z 2 00 3M O Z 200 4

M O Z 2 00 5M O Z 2 00 6M O Z 20 07M O Z 2 008M O Z 2 00 9 M R T 19 86

M R T 19 87M R T 19 88 M R T 19 89M R T 19 90M R T 199 1M R T 19 92

M R T 199 3

M R T 199 4M R T 19 95M R T 19 96M R T 19 97M R T 19 98M R T 19 99M R T 20 00M R T 20 01 M R T 20 02M R T 20 03M R T 20 04M R T 20 05M R T 20 06M R T 200 7M R T 2 008

M R T 20 09 M U S 19 81M U S 19 82M U S 19 83M U S 19 84M U S 198 5M U S 19 86

M U S 19 87M U S 1 988M U S 19 89M U S 1 990M U S 1 991M U S 199 2M U S 19 93

M U S 19 94M U S 19 95M U S 19 96

M U S 199 7M U S 19 98M U S 19 99M U S 200 0

M U S 200 1M U S 2002M U S 20 04M U S 200 5M U S 20 06M U S 20 07

M U S 20 08M U S 200 9M W I19 82M W I1 983 M W I19 84

M W I19 85 M W I19 86 M W I19 87M W I19 88M W I19 89M W I19 90M W I199 1

M W I19 92M W I1 993

M W I19 94M W I19 95

M W I19 96

M W I1 997

M W I19 98

M W I19 99M W I20 00M W I20 01M W I20 02

M W I20 03

M W I20 04M W I2 005M W I2 006M W I20 07M W I2008M W I20 09M YS 1 981

M YS 198 2M Y S 19 83M Y S 19 84M Y S 19 85M YS 1986

M YS 1 987M YS 1 988M Y S 19 89M Y S 19 90M YS 1 991

M Y S 19 92M YS 19 93M Y S 19 94M YS 1 995

M Y S 19 98

M Y S 19 99M Y S 20 00M Y S 20 01M YS 200 2M Y S 20 03M Y S 20 04M Y S 20 05M Y S 20 06M YS 2 007M YS 2 008M YS 2 009

N G A 1 982N G A 19 83

N G A 1984

N G A 19 85

N G A 1 986

N G A 1987

N G A 19 88

N G A 198 9N G A 19 90

N G A 1 991N G A 19 92

N G A 19 93

N G A 199 4

N G A 19 95

N G A 19 96N G A 199 7N G A 19 98

N G A 1 999

N G A 20 00N G A 2 001N G A 20 02N G A 2 003N G A 20 04

N G A 20 05N G A 20 06N G A 20 07N G A 2 008N G A 2 009

N P L1 982N P L 1983N P L 19 84N P L 19 85N P L 19 86

N P L1 987N P L 19 88N P L1 989N P L19 90

N P L1 991N P L 19 92

N P L 19 93N P L 19 94N P L 19 95N P L1 996N P L 19 97N P L 19 98N P L1 999N P L 20 00N P L 20 01N P L 20 02N P L 20 03N P L 200 4N P L 20 05N P L 20 06N P L 20 07

N P L 20 08N P L 2009P A K 1 98 2P A K 19 83

P A K 198 4P A K 19 85P A K 198 6P A K 1 987P A K 198 8P A K 198 9P A K 1 99 0P A K 1 99 1P A K 1 99 2P A K 1 99 3P A K 1 99 4P A K 1 99 5P A K 1 996P A K 1 997P A K 1 99 8P A K 1 99 9P A K 200 0P A K 2 00 1

P A K 2 00 2P A K 2 003P A K 2 00 4P A K 2 00 5P A K 2 00 6P A K 2 00 7P A K 20 08

P A K 2 00 9P A N 1 98 2P A N 1 98 3P A N 19 84P A N 1 98 5P A N 1 98 6P A N 19 87P A N 19 88P A N 1 98 9P A N 1 99 0P A N 199 1P A N 1 99 2P A N 1 99 3P A N 199 4P A N 19 95P A N 1 996P A N 199 7P A N 1 99 8

P A N 1 99 9P A N 2 00 0P A N 2 00 1P A N 200 2P A N 20 03P A N 20 04P A N 20 05P A N 2 00 6P A N 2 00 8P A N 2 00 9P E R 1 98 2

P E R 198 3P E R 1 984

P E R 1 98 5

P E R 19 86P E R 19 87

P E R 1 98 8P E R 19 89

P E R 1 99 0

P E R 199 1

P E R 1 99 2P E R 199 3

P E R 19 94P E R 1 995P E R 199 6P E R 1 997P E R 1 99 8

P E R 1 99 9P E R 2 00 0P E R 2 001P E R 2 00 2P E R 2 003P E R 2 004P E R 2 005P E R 200 6P E R 200 7P E R 200 8P E R 2 009P H L 19 81P H L1 982

P H L 198 3

P H L1 984P H L1 985

P H L 19 86

P H L19 87P H L1 988P H L 19 89P H L19 90P H L 19 91

P H L 19 92P H L 199 3

P H L19 94P H L1 995P H L 19 96

P H L19 97P H L19 98

P H L 19 99

P H L 20 00P H L 200 1

P H L 2002P H L 20 03P H L 20 04

P H L 2005P H L20 06P H L 20 07P H L 20 08P H L 20 09P N G 19 82P N G 198 3

P N G 19 84P N G 19 85

P N G 19 86P N G 198 7P N G 19 88P N G 198 9P N G 19 90

P N G 19 91P N G 19 92P N G 19 93P N G 19 94P N G 19 95

P N G 1 996P N G 1997

P N G 19 98P N G 19 99P N G 200 0

P N G 2 001P N G 20 02

P N G 20 03P N G 20 04P N G 20 05P N G 20 06P N G 20 07

P N G 2008P N G 20 09P R Y 19 82

P R Y 198 3P R Y 1 98 4P R Y 198 5

P R Y 1 986

P R Y 1 987

P R Y1 98 8

P R Y 1 989

P R Y1 99 0P R Y 1 991P R Y 19 92P R Y 1 993

P R Y 199 4P R Y 1 995P R Y 1 996P R Y 19 97

P R Y 19 98P R Y 19 99P R Y2 00 0P R Y 2 00 1P R Y 2 00 2P R Y 2 00 3P R Y 200 4

P R Y 200 5

P R Y2 00 6P R Y 2 007P R Y 2 008

P R Y 200 9R W A 19 82R W A 1 98 3R W A 1 98 4R W A 19 85R W A 1 98 6R W A 1 98 7R W A 198 8R W A 1 98 9R W A 199 0

R W A 1 991

R W A 1 99 2R W A 199 3R W A 1 996

R W A 1 997R W A 1 99 8

R W A 199 9R W A 2 000R W A 2 00 1R W A 2 002R W A 200 3

R W A 20 04R W A 200 5R W A 2 006R W A 2 00 7R W A 20 08R W A 20 09

S D N 1 99 8S D N 19 99S D N 2 000S D N 2 001S D N 2 00 2S D N 2 00 3S D N 2 00 4S D N 2 00 5S D N 2 00 6

S D N 200 7S D N 200 8S D N 2 009S E N 198 2S E N 1 98 3S E N 1 98 4S E N 1 98 5S E N 198 6

S E N 1 987S E N 19 88S E N 19 89S E N 1 990

S E N 199 1S E N 1 99 2

S E N 1 993

S E N 1 994

S E N 1 99 5S E N 199 6S E N 1 99 7

S E N 1 99 8S E N 1 99 9S E N 2 000S E N 2 00 1S E N 200 2S E N 2 00 3 S E N 2 00 4S E N 2 00 5S E N 200 6S E N 20 07S E N 2 008S E N 2 00 9S LB 1 981S LB 19 82

S L B 19 83S LB 198 4

S LB 1 985S L B 19 86 S L B 19 87S L B 19 88S LB 1 989S L B 19 90

S L B 19 91S L B 19 92S L B 199 3S L B 19 94S LB 19 95

S LB 199 6S L B 19 97S L B 19 98S L B 199 9 S L B 20 00S L B 20 01

S LB 2002 S L B 20 03 S LB 2 004 S L B 20 05S L B 20 06S L B 20 07

S L B 20 08S L B 20 09

S L E 19 82S L E 19 83S L E 19 84

S LE 1 985S LE 1986

S L E 19 87

S LE 19 88

S LE 198 9S LE 199 0

S LE 1991S L E 19 92

S LE 1993S LE 199 4

S L E 19 95S L E 19 96

S L E 19 97

S L E 19 98

S L E 199 9

S LE 200 0

S L E 20 01

S L E 20 02S L E 20 03S L E 20 04S LE 200 5S L E 20 06 S L E 20 07S LE 200 8S L E 20 09S L V 19 82S L V 19 83S L V 19 84S L V 19 85S LV 1986

S L V 19 87S L V 19 88S LV 1 989S L V 19 90

S L V 19 91S LV 199 2S L V 19 93S L V 19 94S L V 19 95S L V 19 96S LV 1 997S L V 19 98S LV 1 999S LV 20 00S L V 20 01S L V 20 02S L V 20 03S L V 20 04S L V 20 05S L V 20 06S L V 20 07S LV 2 008S LV 2 009

S W Z 19 82S W Z 198 3S W Z 1 98 4S W Z 1 98 5S W Z 198 6S W Z 198 7S W Z 1 98 8

S W Z 1 98 9S W Z 1 990

S W Z 199 1S W Z 1 992S W Z 1 993S W Z 1 99 4S W Z 1 995S W Z 1 996S W Z 1 997S W Z 1 99 8S W Z 199 9S W Z 20 00

S W Z 200 1S W Z 2 00 2

S W Z 200 3S W Z 2 00 4

S W Z 2 00 5S W Z 200 6S W Z 20 07S W Z 2 00 8

S W Z 200 9S Y C 19 81S Y C 1 982S YC 198 3S YC 1 98 4S Y C 1 98 5

S Y C 1 98 6S Y C 1 98 7S Y C 1 98 8S Y C 1 98 9S YC 199 0

S YC 199 1S YC 199 2S Y C 1 993S YC 199 4

S Y C 1 99 5S Y C 19 96S Y C 1 99 7S YC 1 99 8S Y C 19 99S YC 2 00 0S YC 200 1S YC 2 00 2S YC 200 3S Y C 2 00 4S Y C 2 00 5S Y C 200 6

S YC 200 7S Y C 2 00 8S Y C 20 09

S Y R 1 98 2S Y R 1 98 3S Y R 1 984S YR 198 5S YR 1 98 6

S Y R 1 98 7

S Y R 1 988

S Y R 1 98 9

S Y R 1 99 0

S Y R 1 991S YR 1 99 2

S YR 199 3S Y R 1 99 4S YR 1 99 5

S Y R 19 96S YR 1 99 7S Y R 19 98S YR 199 9S YR 2 00 0S Y R 20 01S Y R 2 00 2S Y R 20 03S Y R 2 00 4S YR 200 5

S Y R 20 06S Y R 2 00 7S YR 2 00 8S Y R 2 009T C D 19 82T C D 1 98 3

T C D 1 984T C D 19 85

T C D 198 6T C D 1 98 7T C D 198 8T C D 198 9

T C D 1 990T C D 19 91T C D 1 99 2T C D 1 99 3

T C D 1 994

T C D 199 5T C D 1 99 6

T C D 1 99 7T C D 1 99 8

T C D 1 99 9T C D 2 00 0T C D 20 01T C D 2 00 2T C D 200 3

T C D 20 04T C D 200 5T C D 20 06

T C D 2 00 7T C D 2 00 8T C D 200 9

T G O 1 982 T G O 198 3T G O 1 98 4T G O 198 5

T G O 198 6T G O 1 98 7

T G O 198 8T G O 1 989T G O 1 990

T G O 1 99 1T G O 1 992

T G O 1 993

T G O 19 94

T G O 19 95

T G O 1 99 6T G O 1 997T G O 1 99 8

T G O 19 99T G O 20 00T G O 20 01T G O 20 02T G O 20 03T G O 2 00 4T G O 2 00 5T G O 2 00 6T G O 2 007 T G O 2 00 8T G O 20 09T H A 1 981T H A 198 2T H A 1 98 3T H A 19 84T H A 19 85

T H A 1 986T H A 19 87T H A 1 988T H A 1 98 9T H A 1 99 0T H A 1 99 1T H A 1 99 2T H A 1 993T H A 199 4T H A 1 99 5T H A 199 6

T H A 1 99 7T H A 1 99 8

T H A 1 999T H A 2 000T H A 200 1

T H A 2 00 2T H A 2 00 4

T J K 19 94

T J K 19 95

T JK 1996

T JK 199 7

T J K 19 98T J K 19 99T J K 20 00

T J K 20 01T J K 20 02T J K 20 03T JK 200 4

T JK 2 005T JK 2 006T J K 20 07T J K 20 08

T JK 2 009

T K M 19 96

T K M 19 97

T K M 1 998

T K M 19 99

T K M 20 00T K M 20 01T K M 200 2T K M 20 03T K M 20 04T K M 200 5T K M 20 06

T K M 20 07

T K M 20 08

T K M 20 09

T U N 1 99 0T U N 1 991T U N 1 992T U N 19 93

T U N 1 99 4T U N 199 5T U N 1 99 6T U N 199 7T U N 199 8T U N 1 99 9T U N 2 00 0T U N 20 01T U N 2 00 2T U N 200 3T U N 2 00 4T U N 20 05T U N 2 00 6T U N 20 07T U N 20 08T U N 2 00 9T U R 1 990

T U R 19 91T U R 199 2T U R 1 99 3

T U R 199 4

T U R 1 99 5T U R 1 99 6

T U R 1 99 8T U R 2 00 0

T U R 2 00 1

T U R 200 2T U R 200 3T U R 2 00 4T U R 2 00 5

T U R 2 00 6T U R 200 7

T U R 20 08T U R 2 00 9T Z A 198 8T Z A 1 98 9T Z A 1 990

T Z A 19 91

T Z A 1 99 2T Z A 1 993T Z A 1 99 4T Z A 1 99 5

T Z A 1 99 6T Z A 1 99 7T Z A 199 8T Z A 199 9T Z A 20 00T Z A 200 1T Z A 2 002

T Z A 200 3T Z A 2 00 4T Z A 200 5T Z A 200 6T Z A 2 00 7T Z A 20 08T Z A 20 09

U G A 19 82

U G A 19 83

U G A 19 84

U G A 1 985

U G A 19 86

U G A 1 987

U G A 19 88U G A 1 989

U G A 199 0U G A 1991

U G A 1 992U G A 199 3

U G A 1 994

U G A 19 95U G A 19 96U G A 19 97U G A 19 98U G A 19 99U G A 20 00U G A 2001U G A 2 002

U G A 2 003U G A 20 04U G A 20 05U G A 20 06U G A 20 07U G A 20 08U G A 200 9U R Y 198 2

U R Y 198 3

U R Y 198 4U R Y 19 85

U R Y 198 6U R Y 1 987U R Y 198 8U R Y 198 9

U R Y1 99 0

U R Y 1 99 1U R Y 1 99 2

U R Y1 99 3U R Y1 99 4U R Y 199 5U R Y 199 6U R Y 1 997U R Y1 99 8U R Y 199 9

U R Y 2 00 0U R Y2 00 1U R Y2 00 2U R Y2 00 3

U R Y 20 04U R Y 20 05

U R Y 2 006U R Y 200 7U R Y 200 8U R Y 200 9

U Z B 1 99 6U Z B 1 99 7U Z B 1 99 8U Z B 199 9

U Z B 2 00 0U Z B 2 001U Z B 2 00 2

U Z B 2 00 3U Z B 2 004U Z B 2 00 5U Z B 200 6U Z B 2 00 7U Z B 2 00 8U Z B 2 00 9 V C T 1 981V C T 1 982V C T 1 983V C T 1 984V C T 198 5

V C T 198 6V C T 1 987V C T 1 98 8V C T 1 98 9

V C T 1 990V C T 199 1V C T 1 99 2V C T 1 99 3V C T 1 99 4 V C T 1 995V C T 1 99 6V C T 1 997V C T 1 998V C T 1 99 9V C T 2 000V C T 2 001V C T 200 2V C T 20 03V C T 2 004V C T 2 00 5V C T 2 006 V C T 20 07V C T 200 8

V C T 200 9V E N 1 98 2V E N 19 83

V E N 1 98 4

V E N 1 98 5V E N 19 86

V E N 1 98 7

V E N 1 98 8

V E N 1 98 9

V E N 19 90V E N 1 991V E N 1 992V E N 199 3V E N 1 99 4

V E N 199 5

V E N 199 6

V E N 199 7V E N 1 99 8V E N 199 9V E N 200 0V E N 2 00 1

V E N 200 2V E N 2 003V E N 2 00 4V E N 2 005V E N 2 00 6V E N 2 00 7

V E N 2 00 8V E N 20 09

V N M 19 90V N M 19 91

V N M 19 92V N M 19 93V N M 1 994V N M 1 995V N M 199 6V N M 19 97

V N M 1 998V N M 19 99V N M 20 00V N M 20 01V N M 200 2V N M 2 003V N M 20 04V N M 20 05V N M 20 06V N M 2 007

V N M 20 08V N M 2 009W S M 19 82W S M 198 3

W S M 19 84W S M 198 5

W S M 19 86 W S M 1 987W S M 19 88W S M 19 89W S M 19 90W S M 1 992

W S M 199 3W S M 199 4

W S M 19 95W S M 19 96W S M 19 97W S M 19 98W S M 19 99W S M 20 00 W S M 20 01W S M 20 02W S M 2 003

W S M 2 004W S M 2 005W S M 200 6W S M 20 07W S M 2 008

W S M 2009Y E M 19 97

Y E M 1998

YE M 19 99

Y E M 20 00Y E M 20 01YE M 20 02Y E M 20 03Y E M 20 04Y E M 2 005Y E M 20 06Y E M 20 07Y E M 20 08Y E M 20 09Z A F 199 3Z A F 199 4Z A F 1 99 5Z A F 1 99 6

Z A F 1 99 7Z A F 1 99 8Z A F 199 9Z A F 2 00 0

Z A F 2 001Z A F 2 002

Z A F 2 00 3

Z A F 200 4Z A F 200 5Z A F 2 00 6Z A F 2 00 7

Z A F 2 00 8

Z A F 2 00 9

Z M B 19 90Z M B 19 91 Z M B 19 92Z M B 19 93

Z M B 19 94Z M B 19 96Z M B 1997

Z M B 19 98Z M B 19 99Z M B 200 0

Z M B 200 1 Z M B 20 02Z M B 20 03

Z M B 2 004Z M B 2 005

Z M B 20 06

Z M B 20 07

Z M B 20 08

Z M B 20 09

-1.5

-1-.

50

.51

Lo

g o

f re

al

eff

ec

tiv

e e

xc

ha

ng

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ate

at

ho

ri

- .2 - .1 0 . 1 .2 .3N e t O D A a s a s h a re o f G D P

R e d u c e d -F o rm R e g re ss io n a t h o r izo n = 0 , fu l l sa m p le

26

Figure 3: Estimated Impulse Responses

(Table 3, Full Sample)

Notes: All graphs display 2SLS estimates of the impulse response of the real exchange rate to a one percentage point of GDP increase in aid over five years. The 95% confidence intervals are shown around the benchmark specification only. The four additional reported impulse responses correspond to the full sample estimates reported in Table 3.

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

h=0 h=1 h=2 h=3 h=4 h=5

Perc

ent R

espo

nse

of R

XR

Benchmark

Excluding Influential Obervations

Adding a Third Lag of RXR

Using a More Conservative Predicted Disbursements InstrumentUsing a Bilateral RXR Measure

27

Figure 4: Estimated Impulse Responses

(Table 4, Full Sample)

Notes: All graphs display 2SLS estimates of the impulse response of the real exchange rate to a one percentage point of GDP increase in aid over five years. The 95% confidence intervals are shown around the benchmark specification only. The four additional reported impulse responses correspond to the full sample estimates reported in Table 4.

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

h=0 h=1 h=2 h=3 h=4 h=5Perc

ent R

espo

nse

of R

XR

Benchmark

Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Sample

Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Sample

Controlling for Changes in Net Reserves

Excluding Technical Assistance, Humanitarian Assistance, and Development Food Aid