AHP Nuclear

Communications in Information Science and Management Engineering CISME

CISME Vol. 2 Iss. 6 2012 PP. 35-38 www.jcisme.org ○C 2011-2012 World Academic Publishing

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The Study on the Site Selection of Nuclear Power Plants Based on Optimized Fuzzy Comprehensive

Evaluation Yun-na Wu, Narenmandula, Yi-li Han

Department of Engineering Management, School of Economics and Management North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Abstract-In the optimizing process of site selection for a nuclear power plant, engineering technicians often face the problems of selecting the most appropriate plan which meets the technical requirements. The uncertainties of various factors involved in the nuclear power plant site selection influence on the ultimate practical power generation as well as imposing a threat on the safety and stable operation of equipment units. The study on the site selection for a nuclear power plant, therefore, becomes the crucial job for the current engineering technicians. At present, even no comprehensive evaluation method which is practically and widely used appears in the field of site selection for a nuclear power plant. In order to solve the problem of the most proper plan for site selection of a nuclear power plant in the area of engineering construction, this article adopts the fuzzy mathematical theory, and suggests a combination of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytical hierarchy process to determine the best plan for site selection of a nuclear power plant.

Keywords- Nuclear Power Plant Site Selection; Fuzzy Comprehensive Appraisal; Analytical Hierarchic Theory

I. INTRODUCTION

On March 11 2011, a big earthquake occurred in the Northeast of Japan and Japanese Imperial capital circle, and then radiation accident happened in Japan's first nuclear power plant Fukushima [1]. The accident caused global concern about nuclear safety. China's State Council Executive meeting stressed that we shall fully understood the importance and urgency of nuclear safety to develop nuclear power safety system [2].

Against this background, combined with “Regulations for environmental radiation protection of nuclear power plant” [3] which the environmental protection department has recently published, this article applies the fuzzy mathematical theory to the nuclear power plant site selection, and proposes a combination method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytical hierarchy process, which determine the best plan for site selection of a nuclear power plant.

II. PRINCIPLES OF SITE SELECTION

With the references to the previous studies [4-8] and “Regulations for environmental radiation protection of nuclear power plant” [3] which the environmental protection department has recently published, we get factors should be considered in the site selection of nuclear power plants.

A.

Technical Feasibility

The factors of technical feasibility are shown in Table Ⅰ.

TABLE Ⅰ FACTORS OF TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY

Site workload of land formation, flood prevention

Power Grid

close to the power grid and load centre, compatibility, operation stability, power grid provide offsite power, safety for nuclear power plant

Water cooling water, supply of industrial and agricultural water, supply of fresh water

Transport Route

suited to the overweight limit for transport equipment, roads, waterways and railways which adapt to nuclear power plant

Industrial Centre

an available industry base near the site is conducive to the maintenance of socialization, general security issues caused by nuclear accident

B. Reliability and Security of the Site

The factors of reliability and security of the site are shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1 Factors of reliability and security of the site

C. Site Characteristics Corresponding to Environmental Compatibility

◇ Atmospheric dispersion: negate the region that has long-term possible to adverse atmospheric dispersion.

◇ Water dispersion: avoid the selected site which is located

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1

1



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on the upstream of drinking water sources.

◇ Population distribution: negates densely populated areas.

◇ Land use: take development for the future and regional planning into account.

◇ Contingency planning: effective contingency can be taken

◇ Non-radioactive impact.

◇ Economic development plan: the existed and planning economic development planning in the selected areas; the acceptance for the site in the local area.

D. Economic Rationality

The factors of economic rationality are shown in Fig. 2.

Fig. 2 Factors of economic rationality

III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The methodology is based on the comprehensive literature review, Delphi questionnaire, factor analysis and fuzzy synthetic evaluation [9, 10]. Fig. 3 shows the flow of the overall research.

Fig. 3 Research framework for this study

A. Establish of the Assessment Performance Layer

The identification and management of the factors of site selection is the core of the assessment method. The first step is factor identify. With the references above and previous literatures, we obtained the destination, the first and the second performance layer. The destination layer is the site selection, the first layer is four factors we get from literature review, and the second layer consists of 16 appraised factors.

B. Calculation of the Weighting Coefficient of Performance

Using the Delphi survey, AHP and calculating by the consistency test, we get the weighting coefficient of performance, which is shown in the Table Ⅱ.

TABLE Ⅱ WEIGHTING COEFFICIENT OF PERFORMANCE

Factors of Natural

Conditions (A) 0.232

Geological Conditions 0.433

Weather Conditions 0.048

Hydrological and Geological Conditions

0.520

Technical Conditions (B) 0.083

Route Length of the Access System

0.049

Access Systems Line Voltage 0.738

Actual Power 0.138

Traffic Conditions 0.078

Economic Factors

(C) 0.046

The Total Project Funding 0.125

Construction Period Interest 0.067

Payback Period 0.071

ROI 0.612

Net Profit Ratio of Capital 0.125

Radiation Safety

(D) 0.639

Basic Legal Requirements 0.632

Contingency Plans 0.229

Population Density and Distribution around the Site

0.082

The Impact of External Events on the Nuclear Power Plant

0.056

IV. COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF THE SITING OF NUCLEAR

POWER PLANTS SITING

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is the process of evaluating an objective utilized the fuzzy set theory. It is a method assessing multiple criteria decision, making to get an appropriate, non-contradicting and logically consistent judgment.

A. Establishment of the Factor Set

Factor set is constituted by a variety of factors which affect the evaluation of the object, usually expressed as U= (U1, U2, U3…Un), these factors usually have different degrees of ambiguity.

B. Establishment of the Weighting Set

In general, in the evaluation process, various factors have different importance. To reflect the importance of various factors Ui (i = 1, 2, ... .., n) should be given the corresponding weight Wi (i = 1, 2, 3, .... n). The set of weights is called the weighting set. They satisfy,

1, 0( 1, 2... )1

nw w i ni ii

(1)

C. Establishment of Reviews Set

The reviews set is ordered by V, where V = (V1, V2, V3…Vn) .It represents a variety of possible evaluation results. In this paper we set the reviews for: V = {excellent, good, fair, poor}. The purpose of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is get the best evaluation results from the reviews set, which is based on the comprehensive consideration of all factors affecting.



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D. Single Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

We need to consider many factors in the complex systems. For the study convenient, the factor set can be divided into several levels according to their characteristics. In this paper, the index system is composed by four levels. First, we make comprehensive evaluation in each level, which is called the single-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The Single fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is B=W R, which B = (B1, B2, B3…Bn) is a fuzzy set of V.B is an overall assessment of things, and also is the base to make decisions. W is the weighting set established in the second step,

mnijRR )( is the transformation matrix of comprehensive

evaluation. This paper has four levels, so the evaluation matrix has the following values,

11 12 13 14

21 22 23 24

1 2 3 4

... ... ... ...

n n n n

r r r r

r r r rR

r r r r

(2)

After we get B, N = CB need to calculated, where C= (C1, C2, C3…Cn) is the weighting distribution of set V.

E. Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

For the problems of multilevel, we define the high-level factors as the sub-problems. First we judge each sub-problem separately, and then judge whole. That is, we evaluate the low-level factors first; and then the high-level. This called the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Here is the two-layer model of integrated decision making,

1 1

2 2

......

W R

W RB W R

Wn Rn

(3)

where 11 11 21 21 1 1

1 ....... , 2 ....... ,......... .......

1 1 2 2

W R W R Wn Rn

R R Rn

W l R l W m R m Wnk Rnk

The membership functions of qualitative indicators is shown in Table Ⅲ,

TABLE Ⅲ EVALUATION OF QUALITATIVE INDICATORS

Excellent Fine Ordinary Bad

1, 95

85,85 95

10

0, 80

u

uu

u

75,75 85

1075

,85 9510

0, 85

uu

uu

u

65,65 75

1085

,75 8510

0, 75

uu

uu

u

1, 65

75,65 75

100, 65

u

uu

u

V. CONCLUSIONS

This article studies the site selection problems for the nuclear power plants. Based on the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and the goal-oriented characteristics of the site selection, this article compares and analyses each factor with a conclusion below.

Nuclear power plant site selection is very important to keep the operating profits of the plant afterward. The main purpose of nuclear power construction is to save the traditional energy, decrease environmental pollution, and reduce the total cost of whole electricity generation. Undoubtedly, reasonable site selection of the nuclear power plant could save the costs, improve the power quality, optimize the allocation of power resources, promote development of regions and so on. The problem of site selection, however, is always affected by various kinds of factors including geographical, technological, economic, and environmental. Among these factors, the qualitative factors are difficult to quantify. Furthermore, in order to get a reasonable site selection scheme of the nuclear power plant, we need to measure these factors used the comprehensive evaluation.

Based on practical applications of site selection methods in the past and the problems at the present stage, this paper presents a method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrates all the factors, handles with the fuzziness of measuring criteria, makes a quantitative, overall and comprehensive evaluation toward the site selection plans of a nuclear power plant. This evaluation contains not only the experiences, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative calculation, but also the theory and practice. All above provide scientific decision reliance for the designing workers. The study result shows that the consequence of comprehensive evaluation verifies scientifically fuzzy comprehensive evaluation makes the site selection of nuclear power plants more reasonable and more rational in the practical analysis of engineering technicians. And the study results also show that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation used in site selection and suggested by this article is practical, feasible and effective, which could be further promoted in future nuclear power projects.

The study consider all factors in selection of nuclear power plant sitting by making a quantitative, comprehensive, integrated assessment. The method includes not only the experience and knowledge of experts, but also qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation of the combination of theory and practice, aimed at planning to provide a scientific basis for decision making, a good solution to the problems of the nuclear power plant sitting process planning staff to meet the technical requirements of the program of choice. The results show that comprehensive evaluation of the results of scientific validation from the project planning of the actual analysis, often face a series of nuclear power plant sitting program for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of more theoretical significance. The method is proved to be feasible, effective, and it can be extensively utilized in nuclear power engineering application.

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[2] (2011) the people website. [Online]. Available: http://www.people.com.cn

[3] GB 6249-2011, “Regulations for environmental radiation protection of nuclear power plant”.

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[5] Severe accident risks: an assessment for five US Nuclear Plants. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NUREG-1150; December 1990.

[6] Multi-objective regional energy location: cost versus people proximity trade-offs with Cohon JL, ReVelle CS, paper presented at the 25th American Nuclear Society Meeting, Trans Am Nuc Soc 1981,38:117.



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