Agriculture || THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH CARIBBEAN

THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH CARIBBEANAuthor(s): OWEN JEFFERSONSource: Caribbean Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 1, Agriculture (MARCH 1972), pp. 87-99Published by: University of the West Indies and Caribbean QuarterlyStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40653240 .

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87

THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH CARIBBEAN

A background paper prepared for the Human Resources Seminar held at the University of the West Indies, August 5 to 12, 1970.

It is perhaps worthwhile at the outset to remind ourselves that there is as ye no such entity as a Commonwealth Caribbean economy, in the sense in whicl the term 'economy' is usually understood. The English speaking Caribbear consists of a number of territories at various levels of underdevelopment which have been, and for the most part still are, more integrated into the economic systems of some metropolitan countries (United Kingdom, United States and Canada) than with each other. Within recent years recognition of the basic similarity of their problems, in the context of a world situation in which, increasingly, attempts are being made to apply regional solutions to economic problems, has led to halting steps towards more economic co-operation in the Caribbean. It remains to be seen whether this process will be intensified so that the economies will become integrated in a way which will make possible the solution of problems which individual units may find intractable.

It is outside the scope of a brief paper of this sort to attempt to deal in any detail with the economies of as many as sixteen territories which, despite the basic similarity of their problems, differ in many particulars. The more modest aim will be to present a kind of overview which concentrates on matters such as the broad structural characteristics of the economies, the major forces which affect their workings, the results of policies which have so far been pursued and the challenges and possibilities of the future.

Structural Characteristics The question of size has been very much in the centre of recent discussions

relating to economic development in the Caribbean. This has been due to the pioneering work of Demas1 who has pointed to the difficulties likely to be faced by small economies in today's world in attempting to carry out structural transformation which he regards as a necessary concomitant of economic development. In this context a small country is defined as one with a population of five million or less. All the territories in the English speaking Caribbean are



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very small by this definition. But there are considerable differences within the group. They range all the way from Jamaica with a population of close to two million to the Turks and Caicos Islands with less than ten thousand inhabitants. The shortrun possibilities for 'going it alone' therefore vary considerably between the territories. But it is a sobering experience to note that even an integrated Commonwealth Caribbean economy would fail to reach the arbitrary population level which Demas considers the minimum level for viability.

A related problem has to do with the high degree of openness which is characteristic of most of the economies. In most of the territories imports account for upwards of 30 per cent of the gross domestic product. Except in the case of Jamaica and Guyana which export bauxite and alumina and Trinidad which depends heavily on exports of petroleum products the typical Commonwealth Caribbean country depends on exports of a narrow range of agricultural products such as sugar, cocoa, bananas, coffee, citrus and spices.

In this regard there has been some changes in the composition of the exports of some territories in the post-war period. The sugar industry has been abandoned in St. Vincent and St. Lucia and is having serious difficulties in most territories where it still exists. Banana production which was negligible in the Windward Islands in the period prior to 1950 has grown to the stage where they are now rivalling Jamaica as the main supplier to the United Kingdom market. Saturation of that market has led to levelling off of production with adverse effects on the growth possibilities of the Windward Island economies. The impending entry of the United Kingdom into the European Economic Community also poses problems regarding the security of the virtually guaranteed market in the United Kingdom on which the rapid expansion of banana production in the Windward Islands has been based.

The slow rate of growth of the traditional agricultural exports in recent years and the difficulties involved in developing exports of manufactured goods, even in the larger territories, have led most territories with the necessary endowments to push the rate of expansion of the tourist industry or to develop an industry almost from scratch. The tourist industry has become the fastest growing industry in the Leeward and Windward islands taken as a group and unless the trend is reversed they may well become 'tourist economies' as the Bahamas, Bermuda and the Virgin Islands are and as Antigua is fast becoming.2 We return to the question of tourism later.

Another common characteristic of the economies of the Commonwealth Caribbean is the high incidence of unemployment and underemployment which afflicts the labour force. The problems of measuring unemployment in economies such as these are well known. Furthermore, very few Commonwealth Caribbean governments publish regular statistics in relation to this matter. It is

generally believed that open unemployment in most of the territories is somewhere between 10 and 20 per cent. There also tends to be a high incidence of underemployment arising from the seasonally of some industries and the

absorption of some of the surplus labour into relatively unproductive forms of



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'employment'. Doubtless this problem will be the subject of special papers and discussions during the course of this seminar and need not be discussed at any length at this time but we will return to it briefly in the course of this paper.

Strategies of Development It is not an exaggeration to say that the Commonwealth Caribbean is

currently at the cross-roads as far as economic policies are concerned. Decisions which will have to be taken in the next few years will almost certainly have

profound implications for the future development of the area. To get the matter in proper perspective it is perhaps useful to look back at the strategies which have been tried since the second World War and the results which have been obtained. In this connection one ought to point out that the policies followed, while not exactly uniform in all the territories, have represented, by and large, variations on the same theme.

The early post-war years represented a period in which capital formation in

general and industrialization in particular were thought to be the crucial elements in economic development. This view arose out of metropolitan theorising based on the actual experience of the industrialised countries. This view tended to be reinforced by the analyses arising out of the study of development possibilities of India - at that time the most-studied of the so-called underdeveloped countries. The prescriptions arising out of analyses of these special cases tended to be generalised across the whole developing world including small island economies such as those of the Caribbean. Puerto Rico was the first of the territories in this area to be selected for development on the basis of industrialization. Its position as a low-wage part of the American economy to which capital and raw materials could move freely from the mainland and finished goods could move freely in the opposite direction seemed to fit it admirably for taking advantage of development along the lines envisaged. Thus 'industrialization by invitation', as it has since come to be known, came to the Caribbean.

Eventually this strategy came to be copied by a number of governments in the

English-speaking Caribbean. The disturbances of 1938 which affected most of the islands drew attention to the economic plight of the area. As export agriculture stagnated and traditional emigration outlets dried up the problem of

unemployment became serious. The start of the movement toward independence brought some measure of discussion, albeit rudimentary, about ways in which the economies could be expanded so as to provide a better livelihood for the

growing population. The idea of industrialization as the answer to the problem soon became

popular. The then current orthodoxy held that agriculture could not be

expected to provide the required amount of jobs to absorb the surplus labour since in many instances the land was already overcrowded. The answer had to lie in industrialization. Since the various territories were thought to be short of

capital, entrepreneurship and raw materials these would have to be imported to



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be combined with the abundant input, viz., unskilled labour which was relatively cheap. With regard to entrepreneurship the policy makers had apparently failed to learn the lessons of the war years when in territories such as Jamaica a whole range of new industries had been created, on local initiative, when imports were cut off as a result of the shortage of shipping space.

In any case the era of incentive legislation in the Caribbean had arrived. The official view was that since capital was in short supply in the world as a whole, countries had to compete in order to get their fair share. Those who did not offer appropriate incentives would be left behind in the race. What followed is well known - intensive competition among countries to offer concessions such as tax holidays, accelerated depreciation allowances, subsidised factory space, duty-free raw materials and the right to export profits in unlimited amounts.

For a while this strategy paid some dividends in terms of boosting production. In the larger territories a range of import substitution industries sprang up behind the protective barrier imposed through a combination of tariff barriers and quantitative restrictions on imports. The optimism which had prevailed in some quarters regarding the possibilities for development of a substantial trade in manufactured goods did not turn out to be justified. In some territories where special incentives were offered to industries producing manufactured goods for export some measure of success was achieved in the short run. But since most of these industries were based on foreign raw materials and foreign capital the real gains to the domestic economy were minimal. In cases such as textiles and clothing where the medium run prospects for developing a substantial trade were good the efforts to achieve this end soon ran up against the commercial policies of the metropolitan countries which moved to restrict imports of the goods in question so as to protect their 'sick' domestic industries. This was only another instance of the many obstacles which stand in the way of the development of a substantial export trade in manufactured goods between the less developed and the industrialized countries. As a general rule the tariff policies of the latter countries act as a dampening influence since tariff rates tend to be low on primary products but rise steeply as the degree of processing of the product increases. These and other problems have been thoroughly aired at two United Nations Conferences on Trade and Development (Geneva 1964 and New Delhi 1968) but the problem remained unresolved.

Thus a major problem for the Commonwealth Caribbean countries which attempted to develop along the path of industrialization was that the limited possibilities for developing an export trade in industrial products meant that the main effort had to be concentrated on production for the domestic market. This

policy led to a number of conflicts between the manufacturing interests on the one hand and the commercial class and the consuming public on the other. Since

imports had to be restricted to make way for domestic production the commençai classes were faced with the prospect of the loss of a profitable trade. Furthermore, since in many cases the locally produced substitute was

higher-priced than the imported product which is replaced, the consuming



91

public, by and large, did not take kindly to the idea of import substitution. This attitude was reinforced by the belief, usually widespread in colonial or newly independent countries, that the local product is always inferior to the foreign one to which the consumer has grown accustomed. Over time, however, the entry of some of the more influential members of the commercial class into the manufacturing sector and the exhortation of governments to the population to 'buy local' tends to reduce, though not to remove completely, the tension induced by industrialization based on import substitution.

However, the limitation of this approach in small economies soon become apparent. In the first place, since this process depends heavily on imported inputs the linkage effects (backward and forward) on which sustained economic development depends do not materialise. The result is that the income and employment generating effects are limited. The effect on the balance of payments is also slight since in many cases what is referred to as 'import substitution' is really only the substitution of local for foreign labour since the capital is largely foreign-owned, the raw materials are imported and the producer pays no tax to the government.

The second problem is that the easy phase of import substitution soon somes to an end. In the early stages it is relatively easy to find commodities which are being imported and which, despite the small size of the market, can be produced within the larger of the Commonwealth Caribbean territories. But as time goes on this problem gets more difficult. Quite apart from the small size of the market the situation tends to be aggravated by the lop-sided distribution of income which is characteristic of the typical Caribbean economy. An unequal distribution of income tends to bias the composition of demand not only towards imports in general but towards those kinds of imports which are most difficult to replace by domestic production. Furthermore, the slow rate of

growth of the agricultural sector which accounts for upwards of thirty per cent of the work force in most of the economies (see Table 3) has meant that the

purchasing power of a large section of the population has remained at levels where only a very small proportion of income can be devoted to the purchase of industrial products.

Some proponents of the orthodox view which stressed industrialization as the key to growth and development had made it clear that in the final analysis the progress of industrialization would depend on the rate at which incomes could be raised in the agricultural sector. But in the Commonwealth Caribbean countries not nearly as much attention was devoted to agriculture, especially domestic agriculture, as was lavished upon the industrial sector. This does not mean that governments did not devote financial resources to the agricultural sector. In Jamaica, for example, a substantial share of the government's development expenditure has been devoted to agriculture in the post-war period. A large part of the expenditure has been in the form of subsidies to small farmers. But in the context of the structural factors which characterize

agriculture (for example, the small acreage of land available to small farmers in



92

relation to their numbers, the absence of adequate marketing facilities for domestic produce etc.) the expenditure has .resulted in little benefit to the society in terms of increased production.

Industrialization at the insular level, based mainly on import substitution, failed to make any serious impact on the unemployment problem which had attracted attention in the nineteen forties. In some cases the number of jobs created by incentive programmes of the type we have described was more than offset by the decline in employment in export agriculture, especially sugar, because of mechanisation which was thought to be necessary to preserve the sector. Typically, the direct employment created by secondary industry for a ten year period was about one-half of the new entrants to the labour force in one year.

Most of the new industries were very capital-intensive. Foreign entrepreneurs brought with them the technology of their own country which, usually, grew out of the needs of a country with abundant capital and scarce labour. But even where the industries were locally owned and financed, the absence of a local capital goods market means that the entrepreneurs could not choose among a range of technologies but had to imitate that prevailing in the countries from which the capital goods were imported. The technology which tended to be adopted was therefore far out of line with what would have been appropriate in a contex of surplus labour and scarce capital.

For a long time the phenomenon of growjh without employment tended to be obscured by the ease with which people from the Commonwealth Caribbean could emigrate to the United Kingdom which was short of unskilled labour. Between 1953 and 1960 more than 150,000 persons emigrated from the area to that country. The Census of 1960 therefore showed reductions in the unemployment rate in some countries which were due not to the creation of jobs at a faster rate than the growth of the labour force but simply to the fact of large scale emigration.

This large scale emigration virtually came to an end with the Commonwealth Immigrants Act of 1962. Such emigration is as now taking place to the United States and Canada is small in relation to the movement to the United Kingdom in the fifties and early sixties but it consists largely of skilled personnel which the region can ill afford to lose especially as in many of the territories where growth has been rapid the educational system has lagged in the production of the types of skills which are needed. The basic point being made here, however, is that the failure of even the rapidly growing economies to provide jobs at a fast enough rate to make an impact on the unemployment problem was obscured as long as emigration outlets were freely available. The reduction in the opportunities for emigration has coincided with a slowing down in the real growth rate of most of the economies with the result that unemployment rates have been tending to rise.



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The Movement Towards Regional Co-operation By the mid-sixties it had become clear to many observers (and some

governments) that the strategy which had held out so much promise in the fifties had not fulfilled the high hopes to which it had given rise. At that time the view began to gain currency that, despite the fact that the territories had decided to go their own way towards constitutional independence, gains could be made to their mutual benefit through a process of economic integration (or co-operation as some preferred to call it) at the regional level. Groups such as the Incorporated Chambers of Commerce favoured a loose grouping involving little more than a free trade area while university economists advocated a rapid movement towards economic integration involving, inter alia, a common market, regional industrial programming,3 joint action to gain control of vital export sectors which are currently under the control of multi-national corporations4 and integration of air transport facilities.5

The governments opted for the gradual approach. The Caribbean Free Trade Association which was formed in 1968 has gone some way towards boosting intra-Caribbean trade in manufactured goods but only a few territories have been able to share it even this limited success. Trade in agricultural commodities has not yet received much of a stimulus from the freeing of trade and as can be seen from Table 2 apart from Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados none of the territories has a manufacturing sector of the size which would permit them to benefit from free trade in manufactured goods. The immediate gains have gone to those industries which had some spare capacity and could make inroads into other Caribbean markets at the expense of extra-regional production.

The gîns to the region arising from CARIFTA are unlikely to be spectacular. As is well known a free trade area is most appropriate where trade between complementary economies is being severely hampered by the existence of tariffs and other barriers to trade. In the Commonwealth Caribbean area, where the structure of production in the respective territories is so similar, meaningful integration must aim at boosting production as a result of planned activity based on the pooling of resources within the framework of an enlarged market. This approach has not yet become the dominant one because governments have differed greatly in their commitment to the regional approach.

In the meantime the lesser developed countries in the Commonwealth Caribbean have complained that CARIFTA has conferred little, if any, benefit on them. Some have even claimed to be worse off as a result of this grouping. These claims have not yet been subjected to any close scrutiny. But, in any case, some observers see the recently established Caribbean Development Bank as a mechanism through which territories which have lagged in their development can be assisted through the grant of soft-loans, etc. The importance of this aspect of the matter cannot be denied but it does not remove the urgency of decision-making regarding the future of regional integration if the process is to be prevented from grinding to a halt.



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Tourism

As previously mentioned the drive towards import substitution in

manufacturing has lost its impetus. The traditional export industries are

stagnating or growing very slowly. The sugar industry is in trouble in almost every Commonwealth Caribbean country in which it still survives. The industry is finding it difficult even to meet quota requirements. The banana industry which grew rapidly in the Windward Islands in the fifties and early sixties is now

levelling off. Jamaican production of this commodity has been falling for the

past few years. Other agricultural commodities geared to the export market are facing similar difficulties.

In the circumstances, and in the absence of a well articulated regional strategy, »individual territories are seeing tourism as a way of preventing their economies from stagnating. Most of the Associated States are taking steps to cash in on what appears to be the best short-run prospect. Even the relatively more diversified economies such as Jamaica and Trinidad-Tobago are planning to expand their tourist sectors substantially partly because the employment-creating potential appears to be greater than that of other sectors. The Bahamas, Bermuda and the Virgin Islands are already basically tourist economies and Antigua is becoming one.

A prolonged discussion of the tourist industry is clearly outside the scope of a paper of this kind.6 But a few observations are in order. In the first place, the benefits from tourism should be measured in terms of the net rather than the gross earnings. Unless the economy can produce the goods and services which tourists consume a high proportion of the earnings flow out to pay for imports made necessary by the industry. Second, there appears to be a tendency in the Caribbean for agriculture to decline as tourism expands. An increasing proportion of food supplies may therefore have to be imported for residents as well as tourists. Third, tourism tends to lead to increased openness of the economy with a concomitant increase in the import coefficient arising out of the demonstration effect of the expenditure patterns of tourists. Fourth, in all Caribbean Countries tourism has exerted substantial upward pressure on the price level and in some has led to the alienation of land on a scale which is beginning to cause alarm. Finally, the social consequences of tourism in the Caribbean context are only now beginning to be studied.

In the light of the foregoing, it seems reasonable to suggest that while countries in which the short-run alternatives are limited cannot be expected to

deny themsleves the possibility of sharing in the expansion of what is now the

leading growth industry in international trade, it should not be assumed that the uninhibited growth of tourism is necessarily a good thing for the economy or the

society. The industry needs careful planning with the aim of integrating it as far as possible with the rest of the economy. This is a matter about which so little is known that it could provide a fruitful area for regional collaboration.



95

Effect of Britain's Entry into the European Economic Community The impending entry of the United Kingdom for entry into the European

Economic Community faces the Commonwealth Caribbean once more with the possible loss of preference in the United Kingdom market. This is important in view of the relatively high share of the region's exports of commodities such as sugar, bananas and citrus which are absorbed by the United Kingdom market. Even in countries such as Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago which derive a very small share of gross domestic product from export agriculture, a substantial portion of the labour force still derives at least a portion of its livelihood from that sector.

It is clear that in the light of the importance of these industries to most of the economies steps will have to be taken to work out an agreement of some kind with the EEC for retention of preferential access to the United Kingdom market.

The Yaounde Convention, under which the eighteen African countries are associated with the EEC, will not provide the protection which is needed. Furthermore, accession to that Convention would mean, in effect, entering into a free trade area with the EEC. Steps could then be taken to protect local industries from EEC products only with the permission of the Common Market Commission. If the Commonwealth Caribbean countries are serious about a regional programme of industrialization, accession to the Yaounde Convention would be foolhardy since, in any case, it would not protect the basic commodities such as sugar, bananas and citrus.

It seems that in their best interest the countries of the Commonwealth Caribbean, acting in consort, should seek to reach a specially tailored agreement with the EEC. Such an agreement should aim at providing for continued preferential access into the United Kingdom of commodities such as sugar, bananas and citrus in return for preferential access into CARIFTA of a limited number of specified commodities which the region is unlikely to have the capability of producing. In other words, the agreement should aim at solving the short run problem of market access for agricultural products without jeopardising the possibility for long-run industrial programming in the region.

Foreign Investment The question of the role of foreign investment in the economy is currently

very topical, and of interest to all Commonwealth Caribbean countries. The basic problem relates to direct investment which not only gives foreigners control over crucial sectors of the economy but leads to outflows of investment income for as long as the industry remains profitable.

Since company profits are the most important source of savings in a private enterprise economy and since, by and large, foreign investment goes into some of the more profitable sectors, there appears to be little hope of getting national ownership of assets which get started by foreign capital except by some formula which provides for acquisition based on payment out of future profits.



96

It is sometimes claimed that the Commonwealth Caribbean countries cannot get along without large amounts of foreign capital. In this connection, it is instructive to note that in Jamaica for the period 1959 to 1969 the amount of investment income accuring to foreigners exceeded the capital inflow into the country. In other words, during that period Jamaica was, in effect, a net exporter of capital. In Trinidad and Tobago a similar situation exists and is even more pronounced. In normal years these economies generate enough surpluses to meet their investment needs. But a large portion of these surpluses are either remitted abroad, thus being lost to the economy, or are ploughed back thus giving rise to even larger claims in the future. It seems, then, that it becomes increasingly difficult over time to buy back assets which are under foreign control.

It is not intended to argue that Commonwealth Caribbean countries never need to resort to foreign capital markets. The argument is, rather, that where such resort become necessary it is advisable, wherever possible, to borrow at fixed interest rates rather than invite direct investment for which repayment never ceases.

In the context of the present situation it seems that in the short run the biggest obstacle to national acquisition of those sectors of the economy now under foreign ownership is not so much the question of availability of capital but the problem of disposition of the output of sectors such as bauxite-alumina for which there is no free market.7 Regional or national strategies aimed at pushing the process to the stage of aluminium would have to contend with the problem of access to markets for the product, a subject on which little if any research has so far been carried out.

Conclusion The strategy of development which has been pursued in most Commonwealth

Caribbean countries in the post-war period has led to fairly rapid increases in output. However, the process has typically been one of growth without employment. Furthermore, the functioning of the economy has tended to reinforce the inequality which has been characteristic of most of the economies of the region. While adequate up-to-date estimates of real output are unavailable for most of the territories such indicators as are available suggest that for many the rate of growth of real per capita income in recent years has been unsatisfactory. Furthermore, unemployment rates, which tended to fall in the fifties and early sixties due mainly to emigration are once more on the increase. The tourist industry shows signs of becoming the biggest growth industry in the area but requires careful control to avoid undue dislocation of the economy and disruption of the society. The progress of regional co-operation has been slow and has so far not made much impact on the region. More rapid integration is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for transformation of the region. A re-assessment of the whole strategy of development is called for and there are hopeful signs of a growing recognition of this fact.

OWEN JEFFERSON



97

TABLE 1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1967

Gross Domestic Gross Domestic Product

Population Product Per Capita (Thousands) EC $ million EC $

Antigua 68.0 34.0 500 Bahamas 139.0 258.6 l 1872 !

Barbados 250.6 189.2 755 British Honduras 113.0 66.1 585 British Virgin Is. 10.5 9.6 914 Cayman Islands 12.0 4.8 400 Dominica 70.0 26.9 384 Grenada 100.0 38.0 380 Guyana 690.0 378.5 548 Jamaica 1876.0 1645.4 877 Montserrat 14.0 6.6 471 St. Kitts 57.6 24.0 417 St. Lucia 108.0 45.4 420 St. Vincent 91.0 28.4 312 Trinidad & Tobago 1010.0 1410.0 1396 Turks & Caicos Is. 7.5 2.6 347

Notes: X Gross National Product for 1 966. (TABLES 2 & 3 FOLLOW)

FOOTNOTES

1. William Demas, The Economics of Development in Small Countries with Special Reference to the Caribbean, McGill University Press, 1965. 2. Carleen O'Loughlin, Economic and Political Change in the Leeward and Windward Islands, Yale University Press, 1968, p. 145. 3. H. Brewster and C.Y. Thomas, The Dynamics of West Indian Economic Integration, Institute of Social and Economic Research, UWI, 1967. 4. N. Girvan, The Caribbean Bauxite Industry, ISER, UWI, 1967. George Beckford, The West Indian Banana Industry, ISER, UWI, 1967. 5. S. DeCastro, Problems of the Caribbean Air Transport Industry, ISER, UWI, 1967. 6. For a fuller discussion see S. DeCastro and O. Jefferson, "A Tentative Appraisal of the Tourist Industry in the Commonwealth Caribbean**, Proceedings of the Regional Conference on Devaluation, Institute of Social and Economic Research, UWI, 1968. 7. N.B. Since this was written the Government of Guyana naturalised the holdings of the Demarara Bauxite Company on the basis of payment out of future profits.



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Agriculture || THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH CARIBBEAN