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Agriculture and Forest Background Document Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan Prepared under the National Adaptation Framework
Prepared by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
2
Table of Contents
Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Agriculture and Forest Sector undertaken
for 2019 Plan
Priority Impact Assessment for Agriculture and Forest Sector
Agriculture and Forest Background Information – 2017 Adaptation Planning
document
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
3
Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Agriculture and Forest Sector
undertaken for 2019 Plan
A national scale assessment of current and potential future climate impacts was carried out as part of the climate
impact and vulnerability screening exercise. This assessment was based on an extensive literature review, including
EPA Reports, ‘A Summary of the State of Knowledge on Climate Change Impacts for Ireland,’ and ‘Ensemble of
Regional Climate Model Projections for Ireland’.
As part of the screening exercise two sub-groups of the internal adaptation committee were set up to consider impacts
under each of the following headings: Animals, Plants (including forest) and Food Safety with experts from the relevant
areas in the Department on each group. In particular the “medium-to-low” and “high emission” ensembles from
Nolan’s work were used when assessing the vulnerability and impact under each of the headings. Sea Level Rise
projections were taken from the website climateambassador.ie1, and for High Levels of Solar Radiation, projections
were taken from the NASA Earth Observatory Report2. Vulnerability under each variable was considered
independently and therefore, did not consider concurrent/compound weather events.
The headings chosen (animals, plants and food safety) align with the Department’s strategic goal to promote and
safeguard public, animal and plant health and animal welfare for the benefit of consumers, producers and wider
society. The tables present the current observations of the affects of weather and weather events under the above
mentioned headings.
Each current observation of the affects of weather and weather events is measured against the current weight of
evidence and the current magnitude of impact. In relation to a projection for the future, the observations are also
categorised in terms of confidence in the assessment of the observation being carried forward and the potential future
magnitude of impact.
Ratings were achieved on the basis of economic, environmental and social impact metrics contained in the Impact
Metrics matrix below, taken from the ‘Sectoral Planning Guidelines for Climate Change Adaptation’. Some of the
impacts in relation to the observation entries were agreed upon within the Group on the basis of their professional
judgement and with reference to relevant research, journals and articles. Ratings were revised upwards or downwards
on discussion and examination within the Group. Each of the entries was referenced to a current article, journal or
research publication.
1 http://climateambassador.ie/resources/climate-change/ Accessed 06/06/19 2 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/SORCE/sorce_03.php Accessed 06/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
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Impact Metrics matrix, ‘Sectoral Planning Guidelines for Climate Change Adaptation’ DCCAE
The entries contained within the Impact and Vulnerability Assessment were then analysed for Prioritisation (Step 3)3.
3 This approach had been used previously for the Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts carried out for the Adaptation
Planning document published in 2017.
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
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Case Study example of approach taken when considering potential impact of a changing climate on animal
health and welfare.
Assessing the impact of climate change on animal health and welfare – the challenge
Climate change is happening. Therefore, it is important to consider the potential impacts that, amongst
others, changes in air temperature, precipitation and the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather
events, might have on animal health and welfare.
Weather patterns in northern European regions have changed noticeably over the past several decades, featuring
warmer, wetter weather with more extreme events [...] Such changes will have a significant impact on livestock
farming, both directly through effects on the animals themselves, and indirectly through changing exposure to pests
and pathogens. (Skuce, Morgan, van Dijk and Mitchell, 2013)4
Adapting to these changes will be no small task. The very first step in addressing this challenge – making an
initial assessment as to what effects climate change might have on animal health and welfare – is itself vastly
complex.
This becomes clear from even a brief consideration of the issues. In the first instance, the specific type of
climate change effect (e.g. precipitation, increasing/decreasing temperatures, extreme events etc.) has to be
considered. Next, what the specific climate change effect is acting upon i.e. host, disease, pest, pathogen etc.
has then to be considered. Already it can be seen that, even when only considering these two variables,
there is an enormous range of variability in potential impacts for animal health and welfare – even before
taking into account economic, social and public health considerations. Indeed:
...it should be noted that factors leading to the effects of climate change on health are extremely complex, involving
not only environmental forces, but also ecological and social aspects, economic interests and individual and
community behaviours. (Lacetera, 2018)5
This basic observation is important in itself. As the Department seeks to adapt to climate change impact on
animal health and welfare, it would seem appropriate for a body of research to be conducted into its impact
at a more granular level, prioritising studies that address the main threats – including exotic and endemic
diseases, pests and pathogens – and utilising the current climate change projections as the basis for scenario-
specific predictive modelling and evidence-based assessments.
4https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259433672_Animal_health_aspects_of_adaptation_to_climate_change_beating_the_
heat_and_parasites_in_a_warming_Europe Accessed 05/06/19 5 https://academic.oup.com/af/article/9/1/26/5168813 Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
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Table 1 – Average Annual Changes
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
INCREASING SUMMER TEMPERATURES
Observed Change An increase of 0.5°C in observed mean annual air temperature over Ireland during the period 1981 – 2010 compared with the 1961 – 1990 period6. Summer minimum temperatures have tended to be higher than the 1961 – 1990 average in particular over the last 20 years7.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
Temperatures increases of between 0.9°C to 1.3°C in summer for the medium to low emission scenario and between 1.1°C and 1.7°C for the high emission scenario.
Animals
Increased animal health testing and advice provision8 Low Low Low Low
Uncontrolled fires9 Low Medium Low Medium
Lengthening of grazing season and greater risk of pasture borne disease and parasites, propensity towards infections (e.g. worms)10
Low Low Low Low
Changes in land use away from feedstuffs11 Low Low Low Low
Greater grass growth and improved nutrition12 Medium Medium Medium Medium
Availability of water for animals13 Low Low Low Low
Increased mortality amongst animals14 Medium Low Medium Medium
Increased stocking density and reduction in space allowance15
Medium Low Medium Low
Vector borne diseases; Increased vector survivability and Low Medium Low Medium
6https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/EPA%20159_Ensemble%20of%20regional%20climate%20model%20projectio
ns%20for%20Ireland.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 7 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP26%20-%20Status%20of%20Ireland%27s%20Climate%202012.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19 8 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/animalhealthwelfare/nationalfarmedanimalhealthstrategy/NFAHS110717.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19 9 https://www.teagasc.ie/crops/forestry/advice/management/dealing-with-wildfires/ Accessed 05/06/19 10 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23739475 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2018/0723/980486-hot-cows-a-summer-of-sunscreen-for-cattle/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/feeding-nutrition/heat-stress-pigs Accessed 05/06/19 11 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23739475 Accessed 05/06/19 12 http://knowledgescotland.webarchive.sefari.scot/briefings/briefingsd5f9.html?id=318 Accessed 05/06/19 13 https://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 14 http://knowledgescotland.webarchive.sefari.scot/briefings/briefingsd5f9.html?id=318 Accessed 05/06/19 15 http://knowledgescotland.webarchive.sefari.scot/briefings/briefingsd5f9.html?id=318 Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
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Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
activity for exotic animal diseases16
Plants incl Forest
Some plants may benefit and some may not from increasing summer temperatures. There may be positive and negative impacts on crop yield and quality. The extent of impact will largely relate to soil moisture17
Medium Low Medium Low
Observation of ‘exotic’ pests/diseases (eg: Ips typographus)18
Low Medium Low Medium
Heat stress for plants leading to the need for adaptation measures19
Low Low Low Low
Reductions in demand for field vegetables during prolonged periods of dry warm weather20
Low Low Low Low
Soil moisture deficits causing plant/tree death (reference needed)21
Low Low Medium Medium
Increased possibility of pest and disease outbreak due to plant stress and improved population conditions22
Medium Medium Medium Medium
Heavy metal contamination of plants affecting growth and possible decreased resistance to diseases23
Low Low Low Low
Increase in aflotoxins, alkaloids, fumonisins etc. in plants and crops due to drier conditions 24
Low Low Low Low
16 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28040271 Accessed 05/06/19
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/146488478.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330367695_Bluetongue_risk_under_future_climates Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.medycynawet.edu.pl/images/stories/pdf/pdf2018/102018/2018106015.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 17 https://dl.sciencesocieties.org/publications/cs/abstracts/20/6/CS0200060796 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/246374957_High_Temperature-Induced_Sterility_in_Indica_Rices_at_Flowering
Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1077283/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/becb/9b24cf70b21cd118ca8ae6f68d2a94e0d658.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.yeastgenome.org/reference/S000137387 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pnas.org/content/106/37/15594.short Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/224147080_Climate_Impacts_on_Agriculture_Implications_for_Crop_Production
Accessed 05/06/19 18 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308075925_The_influence_climate_change_has_on_plant_pathogens Accessed
05/06/19 19 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2015/TResearch-Autumn-15.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.bordbia.ie/industry/manufacturers/insight/publications/bbreports/HorticultureCensuses/Soft%20Fruit%20and%20Pr
otected%20Crop%20Census%202013.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 20 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2014/ARO2014010714.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 21https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281470676_Threshold_Responses_to_Soil_Moisture_Deficit_by_Trees_and_Soil_in_
Tropical_Rain_Forests_Insights_from_Field_Experiments Accessed 05/06/19 22 Previous Internal Stakeholder Consultation Input 23 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
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Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Food Safety
Change of use in pesticides25 Medium Low Medium Low
Other
Increased risk of uncontrolled fires26 Low Low Medium Medium
Increased health and safety risks due to working in warmer conditions27
Low Low Low Low
Changes in land use away from feedstuffs28 Low Low Low Low
Spread of mycotoxins, alkaloids, lectins and samolins in domestic and imported animal feeds29
Low Low Low Low
Hotter weather may lead to larger intake of salads, which may be positive in terms of fruit and vegetable intake but may result in increased incidences of food borne infections30
Low Low Low Low
INCREASING WINTER TEMPERATURES
Observed Change An increase of 0.5°C in observed mean annual air temperature over Ireland during the period 1981 – 2010 compared with the 1961 – 1990 period31. Winter minimum temperatures have tended to be higher than the 1961 – 1990 average in particular over the last 20 years, although the winter of 2010 was anomalously cold32.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
Winter temperatures show increases ranging from 1°C to 1.3°C for the medium to low emission
scenario and an increase of between 1.2°C to 1.7°C for the high emissions scenario.
Animals
24 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 25 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 26 https://www.teagasc.ie/crops/forestry/advice/management/dealing-with-wildfires/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/irish-times-view-risk-of-wildfires-demands-vigilance-1.3577160 Accessed 05/06/19 27 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/health/STRIVE_102_web.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 28 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23739475 Accessed 05/06/19 29 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 30 https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/90698/food-and-climate-change-a-review-of-the-effects-of-climate-
change-on-food-within-the- Accessed 05/06/19 31https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/EPA%20159_Ensemble%20of%20regional%20climate%20model%20projecti
ons%20for%20Ireland.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 32 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP26%20-%20Status%20of%20Ireland%27s%20Climate%202012.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
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Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Longer grazing season, particularly on free draining soils33; increased winter herbage production34; longer grazing season and improved nutrition28
Medium Medium Low Medium
Reduced usage of concentrate feeds35 Low Low Low Low
Inadequate housing ventilation36 Low Low Low Low
Potentially less indoor heating requirements for specialised producers37
Low Low Low Low
Increased animal health testing and provision38 Low Low Low Low
Vector borne diseases; Increased vector survivability and activity for exotic animal diseases39
Low Medium Low Medium
Plants incl Forest
33 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/animals/beef/better-beef/IFJ_20141101.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP1(low).pdf Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_22.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/sweeney-report-strive-12-for-web-low-res.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-science/article/irish-farms-under-climate-change-is-there-a-
regional-variation-on-farm-responses/166D3D2D3989B05DB311F785A3414AF3 Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/EPA%20159_Ensemble%20of%20regional%20climate%20model%20projections
%20for%20Ireland.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 34 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/rural-economy/farm-management/BeefCattleHousingSeptember-2004.pdf Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/ventilation-is-key-when-winter-housing-cattle-26585177.html Accessed 05/06/19 35 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/animals/beef/better-beef/IFJ_20141101.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP1(low).pdf Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_22.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/sweeney-report-strive-12-for-web-low-res.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-science/article/irish-farms-under-climate-change-is-there-a-
regional-variation-on-farm-responses/166D3D2D3989B05DB311F785A3414AF3 Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/EPA%20159_Ensemble%20of%20regional%20climate%20model%20projections
%20for%20Ireland.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 36 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/rural-economy/farm-management/BeefCattleHousingSeptember-2004.pdf Accessed
05/06/19
http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/ventilation-is-key-when-winter-housing-cattle-26585177.html Accessed 05/06/19 37 https://researchrepository.ucd.ie/handle/10197/4257 Accessed 05/06/19 38 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/animalhealthwelfare/diseasecontrol/schmallenbergvirus/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/bluetongue/ Accessed 05/06/19 39 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28040271Accessed 05/06/19
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/146488478.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330367695_Bluetongue_risk_under_future_climates Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.medycynawet.edu.pl/images/stories/pdf/pdf2018/102018/2018106015.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
10
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Effects of winter temperatures (increasing and decreasing) can affect the yield and quality of plants and crops40
Medium Low Medium Medium
Potentially less indoor heating requirements for protected crops41
Low Low Low Low
Weather related pest suppression may not be achieved42 Low Low Low Low
Lack of sufficient vernalisation43 Medium Low Low Low
Accelerated crop growth which can give rise to disease issues especially when combined with wet weather44
Medium Medium Low Medium
Increased possibility of pests/disease outbreak in Ireland45 Low Low Low Medium
Changes in growth can impact vegetable crops where plantings are timed to provide a continuum of fresh produce to match consumer demands46 (changes in growth here can also be a positive)
Low Low Low Low
Potentially decreased losses to damage from frost47 Medium Low Low Medium
Increased possibility of prevalence and establishment of exotic diseases and pests48
Medium Medium Medium Medium
Food Safety
Changes in the pattern of the use of insecticides49 Low Low Low Medium
Other
Increase in the use of zero grazing50 Low Low Medium Medium
INCREASE IN WINTER PRECIPITATION
Observed Change Annual average rainfall amounts have increased by 60mm (or 5%) in the 1981 – 2010 period compared to 1961-1990. The wettest months in almost all locations within Ireland are December and January51.
40 https://dl.sciencesocieties.org/publications/cs/abstracts/20/6/CS0200060796?access=0&view=pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176161788800191 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1077283/ Accessed 05/06/19 41 https://researchrepository.ucd.ie/handle/10197/4257 Accessed 05/06/19 42 Previous Internal Stakeholder Consultation Input 43 https://nerc.ukri.org/research/partnerships/ride/lwec/report-cards/biodiversity-source14/ Accessed 05/06/19 44 Previous Internal Stakeholder Consultation Input 45 https://nerc.ukri.org/research/partnerships/ride/lwec/report-cards/biodiversity-source14/ Accessed 05/06/19 46 Previous Internal Stakeholder Consultation Input 47 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP1(low).pdf Accessed 05/06/19 48 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15427528.2014.865412 Accessed 05/06/19 49 https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/pesticide-use-sites-and-major-use-patterns Accessed 05/06/19 50 http://www.reprodoc.ie/preparing-for-a-winter-forage-crisis/ Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.pcs.agriculture.gov.ie/media/pesticides/content/sud/pesticidestatistics/PesticideUsage2014SoftFruitCropsSurveyRe
port100317.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
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Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Projected Change (2041-2060)
Increase in winter rainfall of between 0 to 14% for the high emissions scenario.
Animals
Compliance difficulties with EU Nitrates Directive regarding slurry storage and land spreading52
Low Medium Low Medium
Floods, soil compaction and erosion53 Low Low Low Low
Pesticide runoff could lead to increased pesticide exceedances in drinking water, particularly for highly soluble grassland herbicides or late season crops in wet conditions54
Medium Low Low Low
Proliferation of rushes if land cannot be grazed or is inaccessible to machinery55
Low Low Low Low
Increased mortality among sheep56 Low Low Low Low
Increased use of antibiotics and anti viral drugs in animals (where appropriate)57
Low Low Low Low
Plants incl Forest
Reduced window for field operations as a results of decreased trafficability58
Medium Low Medium Low
Increase in winter high river flows59 Low Medium Low Low
Compliance difficulties with EU Nitrates Directive regarding slurry storage and land spreading60
Low Medium Low Medium
51https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/EPA%20159_Ensemble%20of%20regional%20climate%20model%20projecti
ons%20for%20Ireland.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 52 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/ruralenvironment/environment/nitrates/SI31of2014290114.pdf Accessed
05/06/19 53 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19 54 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2006/good_ag_practice_handbook.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 55 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/Focus_on_Rushes.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 56 http://knowledgescotland.webarchive.sefari.scot/briefings/briefingsd5f9.html?id=318 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/farming/cattle-mortality-soared-in-march-and-april-856308.html Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/18-increase-in-fallen-cattle-this-spring-388607 Accessed 05/06/19 57 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 58https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280131267_Review_of_factors_affecting_disturbance_compaction_and_trafficability
_of_soils_with_particular_reference_to_timber_harvesting_in_the_forests_of_south-west_Western_Australia Accessed 06/06/19 59 https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Publications/Steele-Dunne.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 60 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2006/good_ag_practice_handbook.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/ruralenvironment/environment/nitrates/SI31of2014290114.pdf Accessed
05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
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Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Localised risk of decreased trafficability by machinery and increased poaching especially on wet soils61
Low Low Low Medium
Floods, soil compaction and erosion62 Low Low Low Medium
Pesticide runoff could lead to increased pesticide exceedances in drinking water, particularly for highly soluble grassland herbicides or late season crops in wet conditions63
Medium Low Low Medium
Increased soil moisture leads to the proliferation of rushes if land cannot be grazed or is inaccessible to machinery64
Low Low Low Low
Floods, soil compaction, erosion and fertiliser/pesticide run off65
Medium Medium Low Medium
Land suitability - Ongoing trend for horticulture production to move from open field conditions to protective structures66
Low Low Low Low
Land suitability - Decreased range of cropping options due to increased moisture content67
Low Low Low Low
Impacts on conducting field operations at the desired time68 e.g. pesticide application windows, seed bed cultivation, harvesting, trafficability etc.
Medium Medium Low Medium
Increase in winter high river flows69 Low Medium Low Low
Reestablishment of damaged cereal crops70 Medium Medium Low Medium
Potential increase in wet weather fungal diseases requiring fungicide treatment71
Medium Low Low Medium
Waterlogged soils increase the risk of windthrow (forest)72 Medium Medium High High
Food Safety
Increased use of pesticides73 Medium Low Low Medium
61 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/5808.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 62 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2016/january/title,88802,en.html Accessed 05/06/19 63 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2006/good_ag_practice_handbook.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 64 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/Focus_on_Rushes.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 65 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/crops/crops/2015_08_HerbicideUse_LowResWeb.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 66https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/farmingsectors/horticulture/horticulturestatistics/SoftFruitProtectedVegetable
Census2013050515.PDF Accessed 05/06/19 67 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2008/National-Tillage-Conference-2008.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 68 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/WeatherConference2013.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 69 https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Publications/Steele-Dunne.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 70 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2016/cereal-flooded-crops.php Accessed 05/06/19 71 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2015/National-Tillage-Conference-2015.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 72 http://www.coford.ie/media/coford/content/researchprogramme/populararticles-fromcoford/Science_Spin_22.pdf Accessed
05/06/19 73 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
13
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Other
DECREASE IN SUMMER PRECIPITATION
Observed Change Annual average rainfall amounts have increased by 60mm (or 5%) in the 1981 – 2010 period compared to 1961-1990. April is generally the driest month across the country. However, despite the increase in the annual average rainfall, precipitation amounts in Ireland exhibit a large degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity74. For example, during June and July 2018 all monthly rainfall totals were below their Long Term Average75.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
Projected decreases of summer rainfall of between 0% to 13% for the medium to low emissions scenarios and 3% to 20% for the high emissions scenario.
Animals
Soil moisture deficits76 Medium Low Low Low
Animal stress due to water shortages77 Low Low Low Low
Localised poor grass growth due to soil moisture deficit; therefore potential low fertiliser response and lower fertiliser application78
Low Low Low Low
Increased animal health testing and provision79 Low Low Low Low
Plants incl Forest
Localised poor grass growth due to soil moisture deficit; therefore potential low fertiliser response and lower fertiliser application80
Low Low Low Low
Decrease in summer water levels81 Medium Low Low Low
Water stress in plants possibly resulting in lower quality and yields82 and need for adaptation measures83
Low Low Low Low
Soil moisture deficits84 Low Low Medium Medium
74https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/EPA%20159_Ensemble%20of%20regional%20climate%20model%20projecti
ons%20for%20Ireland.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 75 https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2018/08/DryWarmWx06072018_SS.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 76 https://www.jstor.org/stable/41219176?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents Accessed 06/06/19 77 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/DealingWithDrought_July2013.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 78 https://www.independent.ie/regionals/wicklowpeople/news/growing-grass-in-dry-summer-spells-27758491.html Accessed
05/06/19 79 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/animalhealthwelfare/diseasecontrol/schmallenbergvirus/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/bluetongue/ Accessed 05/06/19 80 https://www.independent.ie/regionals/wicklowpeople/news/growing-grass-in-dry-summer-spells-27758491.html Accessed
05/06/19 81https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/EPA%20159_Ensemble%20of%20regional%20climate%20model%20projecti
ons%20for%20Ireland.pdf 06/06/19 82 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP1(low).pdf Accessed 05/06/19 83 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2015/TResearch-Autumn-15.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
14
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Increased risk of uncontrolled fires85 Low Low Medium Medium
Change in disease pressure due to decrease in summer precipitation 86
Medium Low Medium Low
Some plants may benefit and some may not from decreasing summer precipitations. There may be positive and negative impacts on crop yield and quality. The extent of impact will largely relate to soil moisture retention87
Medium Low Medium Low
Food Safety
Increased irrigation could lead to the risk of microbiological contamination of plants88
Medium Medium Medium Medium
Other
SEA LEVEL RISE
Observed Change Satellite observations indicate that sea level around Ireland has risen by approximately 0.04-0.06m since the early 1990s89.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
Projections suggest an increase in global sea levels in the range of 0.26 to 0.55m for the low emissions scenario and 0.52-0.98 for the high emissions scenario. However due to an as yet limited understanding of some of the important effects that contribute to rates of increase, a best estimate for sea level rise cannot be provided with confidence, and estimates of up to 4-6 m have been projected by some models.
Animals
Loss of coastal areas90 Low Low Low Medium
Plants incl Forest
Infrastructural damage91 Low Low Low Low
84 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719300014 Accessed 06/06/19 85 https://www.teagasc.ie/crops/forestry/advice/management/dealing-with-wildfires/ Accessed 05/06/19 86 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444525123000048 Accessed 05/06/19 87 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/246374957_High_Temperature-Induced_Sterility_in_Indica_Rices_at_Flowering
Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1077283/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/becb/9b24cf70b21cd118ca8ae6f68d2a94e0d658.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.yeastgenome.org/reference/S000137387 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pnas.org/content/106/37/15594.short Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/224147080_Climate_Impacts_on_Agriculture_Implications_for_Crop_Production
Accessed 05/06/19 88 https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/1/67/htm Accessed 05/06/19 89 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/irish-sea-level-rising-3-5cm-a-decade-since-the-early-1990s-1.3319367
Accessed 06/06/19 90 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_28.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/irish-sea-level-rising-3-5cm-a-decade-since-the-early-1990s-1.3319367 Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.ria.ie/sites/default/files/climate-change-3rd-scientific-statement.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
15
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Local impact on local farming practices resulting in localised loss of land
Low Low Low Low
Food Safety
Other
PHENOLOGY
Observed Change The beginning of the growing season is occurring approximately 10 days earlier now than when compared to the early 1970s92.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
An average increase in length of growing season by mid-century of 35 – 40 days per year for the medium to low emission and high emission scenarios, respectively. However, it is projected that in some parts of Ireland the projected increase in the number of growing days is limited as the conditions in these areas will approach a potential all year growth.
Animals
Improved competitiveness of grass based production systems93
Low Low Low Medium
Multiple cropping as a result of silage being cut several times over the summer months94
Medium Low Low Medium
Increased winter herbage production95 Medium Low Low Low
Advancement of bramble, gorse and bracken96 Low Low Low Low
Weed growth, requiring pesticide treatment, to occur over a longer period and later in the year97
Low Low Low Low
Plants incl Forest
Multiple cropping as a result of silage being cut several times over the summer months98; increased winter herbage production99
Medium Low Low Medium
91 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_28.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 92 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP26%20-%20Status%20of%20Ireland%27s%20Climate%202012.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19 93 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2010/the_impact_of_climate_change_on_irish_farming_5623.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19 94 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_28.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 95 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2010/the_impact_of_climate_change_on_irish_farming_5623.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_22.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 96 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_22.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 97 Previous Internal Stakeholder Consultation Input 98 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_28.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
16
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Changes to crop growth patterns will influence species and varietal selections, sowing, harvest dates, crop husbandry etc.100
Medium Medium Low Medium
Advancement of bramble, gorse and bracken101 Low Low Low Low
Weed growth, requiring pesticide treatment, to occur over a longer period and later in the year102
Low Low Low Low
Increased growth early or late in the season makes some species more susceptible to early or late frost103
Medium Medium Medium Medium
Temperature changes can lead to earlier bud burst and later bud set which may increase the risk of frost damage and impact productivity104
Medium Low Low Medium
Changes in temperature and moisture can influence flowering, seed formation and germination which have possible impacts on availability of genetic resources and natural regeneration in forests105
Medium Low Low Low
Food Safety
Weed growth, requiring pesticide treatment, to occur over a longer period and later in the year106
Low Low Low Low
Other
Early emergence and extended periods of activity of many of the common moth species in Ireland may have potential for greater impacts on species/subspecies which are already marginalised or vulnerable107
Low Low Low Low
Potential mismatches may occur between plants and their pollinators with likely changes in the timing of flowering and the occurrence of important life cycle events of pollinators108
Medium Low Medium Low
99 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2010/the_impact_of_climate_change_on_irish_farming_5623.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_22.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 100 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2008/National-Tillage-Conference-2008.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 101 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_22.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 102 Previous Internal Stakeholder Consultation Input 103 https://journal.societyofirishforesters.ie/index.php/forestry/article/download/10040/9129 Accessed 05/06/19 104 https://journal.societyofirishforesters.ie/index.php/forestry/article/download/10040/9129 Accessed 05/06/19 105 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229895482_Climate_change_and_plant_regeneration_from_seed Accessed
05/06/19 106 Previous Internal Stakeholder Consultation Input 107 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_22.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 108 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/23562635_How_does_climate_warming_affect_plant-
pollinator_interactions_Ecol_Lett Accessed 06/06/19
Agriculture and Forest Sector: Background Document
17
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Pollination is most sensitive phenological stage to temperature extremes across all plant species and temperature extremes greatly affect production109
Medium Low Medium Medium
109 https://dl.sciencesocieties.org/publications/cs/abstracts/20/6/CS0200060796?access=0&view=pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
18
Table 2 – Extreme Events
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
HEAT WAVES/DROUGHT
Observed Events • 1995 was the warmest summer on record in Ireland110. An excess mortality of 54 deaths was observed between 22 and 30 June 1995 in rural areas, corresponding to an 11% increase. As heat increases physical strain and can lead to inattentiveness, potentially leading to an increase in work accidents. Farming and outdoor work may partly explain the increased mortality observed in rural areas111. More recently, during June and July 2018 all monthly rainfall totals were below their Long Term Average with several mean air temperatures above their Long Term Average for those months112.
• 2006 was the warmest summer since 1995113.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
• In relation to extreme temperatures and heat waves, warming is projected to be enhanced with highest daytime temperatures in the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to rise by 0.7°C to 2°C for the medium to low emissions scenario and from 1.3°C to 2.6°C for the high emissions scenario.
• The number of dry periods (at least 5 consecutive days for which the daily precipitation is less than 1mm) is projected to increase substantially by mid century during summer by 12% to 40%.
Animals
Heat and water stress114 Medium Medium Low Medium
Potential ‘Exotic’ disease outbreaks115 Low Low Low Medium
Revised grazing protocols116 Medium Medium Low Medium
Increased meal/silage requirements117; Winter feed gap created due to summer
Medium Medium Medium Medium
110 https://www.met.ie/climate/major-weather-events Accessed 05/06/19 111 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/health/STRIVE_102_web.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 112 https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2018/08/DryWarmWx06072018_SS.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 113 https://www.met.ie/climate/major-weather-events Accessed 05/06/19 114 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/DealingWithDrought_July2013.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/7-urgent-actions-needed-to-severe-drought-effects/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/beef-advice/everything-you-need-to-know-about-heat-stress-in-
cattle-37095069.html Accessed 05/06/19 115 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/animalhealthwelfare/diseasecontrol/schmallenbergvirus/ Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 116 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/DealingWithDrought_July2013.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 117 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/DealingWithDrought_July2013.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
19
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
feed; supplementation with winter forage reserve118;Poor grass growth119; Lack of fodder120
Deterioration of soil quality, including soil moisture deficits121
High Medium Low Medium
Restricted chemical fertiliser application and reduced efficiency122
Medium Low Low Medium
Increased risk of uncontrolled fires123 (in particular uplands)
Medium Medium Medium Medium/High
Inadequate housing ventilation124 Low Low Low Low
Evacuation and reduction of livestock125 Low Medium Low Medium
118 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/DealingWithDrought_July2013.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/farming/drought-threatens-major-dairy-setback-853196.html Accessed
05/06/19
http://icmsa.ie/2018/07/icmsa-list-specific-actions-needed-to-address-severe-drought-problems-on-farms/ Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/7-urgent-actions-needed-to-severe-drought-effects/ Accessed 05/06/19 119 https://www.farmersjournal.ie/coping-with-drought-in-hard-hit-wexford-384868 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-examiner/20180716/282235191433031 Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.munster-express.ie/front-page-news/drought-hitting-farmers-hard/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishexaminer.com/search/?cx=004422957488353982429%3A4gb73lvknqy&cof=FORID%3A9&ie=UTF-
8&q=drought+in+grassland; Accessed 05/06/19 120 https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/beef-advice/key-advice-on-feeding-in-summer-drought-
conditions-37071148.html Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.munster-express.ie/front-page-news/drought-hitting-farmers-hard/ Accessed 05/06/19
http://clarechampion.ie/?s=ground%20has%20turned%20to%20toast Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/farming/creedmakes-fodder-crop-plea-856309.html Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-independent-farming/20180724/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-examiner/20180720/282376925363149 Accessed 05/06/19 121 https://www.independent.ie/regionals/wicklowpeople/news/growing-grass-in-dry-summer-spells-27758491.html
Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 122 https://www.independent.ie/regionals/wicklowpeople/news/growing-grass-in-dry-summer-spells-27758491.html
Accessed 05/06/19 123 https://www.teagasc.ie/crops/forestry/advice/management/dealing-with-wildfires/ Accessed 05/06/19 124 https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/ventilation-is-key-when-winter-housing-cattle-26585177.html
Accessed 05/06/19 125 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-independent-farming/20180703/ Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.corkindependent.com/news/topics/articles/2018/07/04/4158473-more-weather-woes-for-farmers/
Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
20
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Plants incl Forest
Heat waves and droughts will impact plants growth. This may be positive or negative on crop yield and quality. The extent of impact will largely relate to soil moisture and the crop grown126
Medium Low Medium Medium
Reductions in demand for field vegetables (including potatoes) during prolonged periods of dry warm weather127
Low Low Low Low
Potential for accelerated exposure of groundwater to pesticides if dry conditions lead to damaged soils and pesticides are subsequently applied on such areas128
Low Medium Low Medium
Deterioration of soil quality, including compaction and soil moisture deficits129
Low Low Low Low
Soil moisture deficits and deterioration of soil quality130
Low Low Medium Low
Increased risk of uncontrolled fires131 Low Low Medium Medium
Poor growth and yield of crops and vegetables132
Low Low Low Low
Food Safety
Potential for accelerated exposure of Low Low Low Medium
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/dairy-farmers-facing-delays-on-cull-cow-slaughter-37124650.html
Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-independent-farming/20180724/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.southernstar.ie/news/roundup/articles/2018/07/25/4159378-in-this-weeks-southern-star/ Accessed
05/06/19 126https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7115967_Plant_Factors_Controlling_Seed_Set_in_Maize_The_Influence_
of_Silk_Pollen_and_Ear-Leaf_Water_Status_and_Tassel_Heat_Treatment_at_Pollination Accessed 05/06/19 127 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2014/ARO2014010714.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 128 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128147191000148 Accessed 06/06/19 129https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261942305_Predicting_soil_moisture_conditions_for_arable_free_draini
ng_soils_in_Ireland_under_spring_cereal_crop_production Accessed 05/06/19 130 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229663757_Soil_compaction_and_soil_management_-_A_review
Accessed 05/06/19 131 https://www.teagasc.ie/crops/forestry/advice/management/dealing-with-wildfires/ Accessed 05/06/19 132 https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-examiner/20180718/282230896470173 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/farming/creed-makes-fodder-crop-plea-856309.html Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-independent-farming/20180724/282084867594266 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-examiner/20180723/282269551186100 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-examiner/20180730/282170766953039 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.ifa.ie/drought-conditions-place-huge-pressure-on-vegetable-growers/ Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
21
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
groundwater to pesticides if dry conditions lead to cracked soil and pesticides are subsequently applied on such areas133
Increased requirements for water storage, water collection, nutrient recycling systems, irrigation, high capacity climate control systems for protected structures to avoid stress to plants/crops134
Medium Medium Low Low
Potential for accelerated exposure of groundwater to pesticides if dry conditions lead to cracked soil and pesticides are subsequently applied on such areas.131
Low Medium Low Medium
Deterioration of soil quality, including compaction and soil moisture deficits135
Low Low Low Low
Elevated temperatures may increase food borne pathogens and mycotoxins in the pathway between farm and consumer. Food transport, storage and processing affect food safety risks, but there is little information on how these will alter under climate change136137
Low Low Low Low
Other
133 https://www.independent.ie/regionals/wicklowpeople/news/growing-grass-in-dry-summer-spells-27758491.html
Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 134 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2015/TResearch-Autumn-15.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/farmingsectors/horticulture/horticulturestatistics/SoftFruitProtected
VegetableCensus2013050515.PDF Accessed 05/06/19 135https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261942305_Predicting_soil_moisture_conditions_for_arable_free_draini
ng_soils_in_Ireland_under_spring_cereal_crop_production Accessed 05/06/19 136 https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/575-1-
1008_X02001__Climate_Change_and_Food_Report__28_Sept_2010.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 137 http://www.fao.org/3/i0195e/i0195e00.pdf Accessed 30/07/2019
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
22
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Increased risk of uncontrolled fires138 Medium Medium Medium Medium/High
Many ecological systems may suffer increased stress139
Low Low Low Low
Peatlands may be vulnerable to mass “die-off” of sphagnum (biodiversity)140
Low Low Low Low
Health and safety risks141 Medium Medium Medium Medium
COLD SPELLS
Observed Events • Following January 2010 greater than €4.3 million was spent in a partial compensation scheme for grower losses142. Actual grower losses are estimated at over €12 million143.
• In spring 2013, mean air temperatures were below average everywhere, Dublin Airport reported its coldest spring in 62 years144
Projected Change (2041-2060)
• Averaged over the country the number of frost days (days when the minimum temperature is less than 0°C) is projected to decrease by 50% for the medium to low emission scenario and 62% for the high emissions scenario.
• The number of ice days (days when the maximum temperature is less than 0°C) is projected to decrease by 73% for the medium to low emission scenario and 82% for the high emissions scenario.
Animals
Livestock stress145
Low Low Low Low
Difficulties in the transportation of livestock and supplies146
Low Low Low Low
138 https://www.teagasc.ie/crops/forestry/advice/management/dealing-with-wildfires/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/forestry-enviro/environment/drought-leaves-blaze-threat-atdangerous-
levels-across-state-37094781.html Accessed 05/06/19 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/hosepipe-ban-goes-nationwide-as-drought-conditions-persist-
1.3555610 Accessed 06/06/19
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/irish-times-view-risk-of-wildfires-demands-vigilance-
1.3577160?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw- https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fopinion%2Feditorial%2Firish-
times-view-risk-of-wildfires-demands-vigilance-1 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/temperature-warnings-in-force-amid-heatwave-1.3550017
Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/hot-topic-illegal-burning-on-land-could-send-you-to-prison-
34699467.html Accessed 05/06/19 139 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP1(low).pdf Accessed 05/06/19 140 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP1(low).pdf Accessed 05/06/19 141 http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/health/STRIVE_102_web.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.hsa.ie/eng/Your_Industry/Agriculture_Forestry/Further_Information/Fatal_Accidents/ Accessed 05/06/19 142https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/publications/2011/annualreviewandoutlookforagriculturefisheriesandfood20102011/
agriculturalcommoditiesinputs/horticulturepotatoes/ Accessed 05/06/19 143 Internal Stakeholder Consultation Input 144 https://www.independent.ie/weather/spring-was-coldest-in-62-years-29319603.html Accessed 05/06/19 145 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/animals/dairy/animalwelfare.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
23
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Compliance difficulties with EU Nitrates Directive regarding slurry storage and land spreading147
Low Low Low Low
Immediate localised fodder shortages148 (impact depends on timing such as close to turnout)
Medium Low Low Low
Interruption to winter/housing field water supply due to freezing149
Low Low Low Low
Increased mortality among animals150
Low Low Low Low
Plants incl Forest
Destruction of field vegetables, potato crops and amenity plants151
Low Low Low Low
Reduced plant growth rates152
Low Low Low Low
Fluctuations in heating costs for plants growing under protection153
Low Low Low Low
Some species are more susceptible to early or late frost154
Medium Medium Medium Medium
Food Safety
Other
Fluctuations in heating costs for specialist enterprises.155
Medium Low Low Low
Frost damage and poor growth conditions156 Medium Low Low Low
146https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/animalhealthwelfare/transportofliveanimals/BestPractice_Welfare
AnimalsduringTransport.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 147 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2006/good_ag_practice_handbook.pdf Accessed
05/06/19 148 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2016/january/title,88802,en.html Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2014/february/title,73893,en.html Accessed 05/06/19 149 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2014/february/title,73893,en.html Accessed 05/06/19 150 https://www.farmersjournal.ie/18-increase-in-fallen-cattle-this-spring-388607 Accessed 05/06/19 151https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/publications/2011/annualreviewandoutlookforagriculturefisheriesandfood20102011/
agriculturalcommoditiesinputs/horticulturepotatoes/ Accessed 05/06/19 152https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/publications/2011/annualreviewandoutlookforagriculturefisheriesandfood20102011/
agriculturalcommoditiesinputs/horticulturepotatoes/ Accessed 05/06/19 153 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2010/Michael_Gaffney_EnergyEfficiencyinHort.pdf Accessed
05/06/19 154 http://www.ucd.ie/ferg/Research/Projects/BOGFOR/BogforConnect.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 155 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261914010150 Accessed 07/06/19
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216302614 Accessed 07/06/19 156 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S116103011000106 Accessed 07/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
24
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Health and safety risks, including, in the transportation of goods and livestock, in carrying out maintenance in exposed, dark conditions and stress to farmers157
Low Low Low Low
Infrastructure and plant damage158 Low Low Low Low
EXTREME PRECIPITATION
Observed Events • In 1997, 1998 and 1999 Coillte reported 0.5, 0.85 and 1.6M m3, respectively of roundwood being windthrown159.
• Rainfall records for November 2009 were exceptional160.
• In November 2009, flood damage in County Cork alone ran to €100 million161.
• Strong winds, tidal surges and low pressure caused widespread damage and flooding during the latter half of December 2013 and into the middle of February 2014. Widespread damage occurred along the southern, western and north western coastal areas162.
• Early 2014163 – Storm force winds occurred on twelve different days and led to a large increase in rainfall on already heavily saturated land. The frequency and ferocity of the storm events compounded by waterlogged soils, resulted in extensive windthrow of approx. 8,000 ha (+/- 560 ha) with counties Kerry, Limerick, Cork and Clare most affected.
• The winter of 2015/2016 was the wettest on record for over half of all weather stations164.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
• Increase in the number of heavy rainfall events by approximately 20% during the autumn and winter months. A projected increase in mean precipitation for winter was noted over most of Ireland for the high-emission scenario.
Animals
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192303002302 Accessed 07/06/19
157 https://www.hsa.ie/eng/Your_Industry/Agriculture_Forestry/Further_Information/Fatal_Accidents/ Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/animalhealthwelfare/transportofliveanimals/BestPractice_Welfare
AnimalsduringTransport.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 158 https://www.ifa.ie/2010/12/page/4/ Accessed 06/06/19 159 Purser P, Byrne K, Farrell E, Sweeney J. 2004. The potential impact of climate change on Irish Forestry. Irish Forestry
61:16-34 160http://edepositireland.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/70488/Climatological%20Note%20No.%2012.pdf?sequence=1&isA
llowed=y Accessed 07/06/19 161 https://www.ifrc.org/Global/Publications/disasters/WDR/wdr2010/WDR2010-full.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 162 https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/WinterStorms13_14.pdf Accessed 07/06/19 163 https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/2014StormDarwin-1.pdf Accessed 07/06/19 164http://hydrologyireland.ie/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/06-Seamus-W-Rainfall-of-winter-2015_2016-Final.pdf
Accessed 07/06/19
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.2823 Accessed 07/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
25
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Limited/poorly conserved or damaged silage and grass utilisation165
Low Medium Low Medium
Stress to livestock166 Medium Low Low Low
Temporary or urgent movement of livestock in sometimes dangerous conditions167
Low Medium Low Low
Compliance difficulties with EU Nitrates Directive regarding slurry storage and land spreading168
Low/Medium Low/Medium Low Low/Medium
Infrastructural damage169 Low Low Low Low
Pesticide applications could lead to increased pesticide exceedances in drinking water, particularly for highly soluble grassland herbicides, resulting in a requirement for better land management170
Low Low Low Low
Surface run-off of nutrients171 Medium Medium Low Medium
Waterlogged soils increase the risk of windthrow172
Medium Medium Medium High
Chemical contaminants to growing areas, heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants173
Low Low Low Low
165 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2016/january/title,88802,en.html Accessed 05/06/19
http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2014/february/title,73893,en.html Accessed 05/06/19 166 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/animals/dairy/animalwelfare.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 167https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/animalhealthwelfare/transportofliveanimals/BestPractice_Welfare
AnimalsduringTransport.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2014/february/title,73893,en.html Accessed 05/06/19 168 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2006/good_ag_practice_handbook.pdf Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/ruralenvironment/environment/nitrates/SI31of2014290114.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19 169 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2016/january/title,88802,en.html Accessed 05/06/19 170 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/crops/crops/2015_08_HerbicideUse_LowResWeb.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2006/good_ag_practice_handbook.pdf Accessed
05/06/19 171 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2015/Ian-Thomas-Teagasc-AgriEnvironment-Conference-
2015.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 172 http://www.coford.ie/media/coford/content/researchprogramme/populararticles-fromcoford/Science_Spin_22.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
26
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Limited/poorly conserved or damaged silage174 and grass utilisation175
Medium Medium Low Medium
Floods176, soil compaction (poaching and poor trafficability)177 and erosion178
Medium Medium Low Medium
Flooded or waterlogged pastures; damage to drainage systems179
Medium Low Medium Low
Sustained flooding causing reduced milk yield and evacuation of livestock180
Low Medium Low Low
Plants incl Forest
Difficult harvesting conditions and reduced harvesting windows181. Impacts on conducting field operations at the desired time182
Medium Medium Low Medium
Floods, soil compaction (poaching191 and poor trafficability) and erosion183
Medium Medium Low Medium
Surface run-off of nutrients184 Medium High Low High
Delayed harvesting can result in grain sprouting and discolouration when weather is poor185. Reseeding/ reestablishment of damaged cereal crops post emergence186
Medium Medium Low Medium
Land suitability · Ongoing trend for horticulture production to move from open field conditions to
Low Low Low Low
173 https://www.epa.gov/international-cooperation/persistent-organic-pollutants-global-issue-global-response
Accessed 05/06/19 174 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022030218303205 Accessed 07/06/19 175 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/crops/grassland/Managing-your-grass.pdf Accessed 07/06/19 176 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169417308806 Accessed 06/06/19 177 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001670611630489X Accessed 06/06/19 178https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216303555 Accessed 06/06/19 179 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 180 http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 181 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/5808.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 182 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2013/WeatherConference2013.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 183 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19 184 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2015/Ian-Thomas-Teagasc-AgriEnvironment-Conference-
2015.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 185 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2009/WheatProduction.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 186 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2016/cereal-flooded-crops.php Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
27
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
protective structures187 · Decreased range of cropping options due to increased moisture content188
Floods, soil compaction, erosion, reduced trafficability and fertiliser/pesticide run off189
loss of beneficial soil biodiversity190
Medium Medium Low Medium
Waterlogged soils increase the risk of windthrow191
Medium Medium Medium High
Flooding is one mechanism for transporting pathogens and chemicals onto agricultural land and may increase192
Low Low Low Low
Food Safety
Potential increase in wet weather fungal diseases requiring fungicide treatment193194. Spread of pathogens. Human infection caused by spread of disease. Spread of foodborne infections and zoonotic diseases195. Faecal contamination of crops196
Low Low Low Low
After floods or high rainfall, vegetable crops may become a risk to food safety, even if they look healthy. Maybe Cryptosporidium197
Low Low Low Low
Pathogens from human and animal sources, eg Wastewater contamination of growing areas – most significant cause of shellfish
Low Low Low Low
187https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/farmingsectors/horticulture/horticulturestatistics/SoftFruitProtecte
dVegetableCensus2013050515.PDF Accessed 05/06/19 188 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2008/National-Tillage-Conference-2008.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 189 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2006/good_ag_practice_handbook.pdf Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2016/cereal-flooded-crops.php Accessed 05/06/19 190 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2016/january/title,88802,en.html Accessed 05/06/19 191 http://www.coford.ie/media/coford/content/researchprogramme/populararticles-fromcoford/Science_Spin_22.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19 192 https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/575-1-
1008_X02001__Climate_Change_and_Food_Report__28_Sept_2010.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 193 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2015/National-Tillage-Conference-2015.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/a-review-of-national-response-to-ash-dieback-announced-370910 Accessed 05/06/19 194 http://www.fao.org/3/i0195e/i0195e00.pdf Accessed 30/07/2019
195http://www.safefood.eu/SafeFood/media/SafeFoodLibrary/Documents/Publications/Research%20Reports/M10039-
SAFEFOOD_Climate-Change-on-the-Dairy-Production-Report-24-02-2017.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 196 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4515668/ Accessed 05/06/19 197 https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/publications/guidance_flooding.htm Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
28
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
illness198
Difficult sowing/harvesting conditions and reduced operating windows for sowing/harvesting linked to poor crop establishment, grain discolouration, grain sprouting, reduced quality and delayed harvest199
Medium Low Medium Low
Flood, soil compaction (poor trafficability and erosion) 200
Medium Low Medium Low
Surface run-off of nutrients201 Medium Medium Medium Medium
Other
Health and Safety risks associated with working outside in hazardous conditions202
Low Low Low Low
Infrastructure and plant damage203 Low Low Low Low
Infrastructure damage204 Medium Medium Low Medium
Health and safety issues205 Medium Medium Low Medium
Flooding events increase the risk of pathogen contamination considerably, e.g. Salmonella and STEC206
Low Low Low Low
STORMS/ HIGH WINDS/ STORM SURGE
Observed Events • In 1997, 1998 and 1999 Coillte reported 0.5, 0.85 and 1.6M m3, respectively of roundwood being windthrown207.
• Early 2014208 – Storm force winds occurred on twelve different days and led to a large increase in rainfall on already heavily saturated land. The frequency and ferocity of the
198 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863362/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1151830/ Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3005857 Accessed 05/06/19
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/340640 Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863362/ Accessed 05/06/19 199 https://www.hort.purdue.edu/prod_quality/quality/factors.html Accessed 06/06/19 200 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167198718307748 Accessed 05/06/19 201 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2015/Ian-Thomas-Teagasc-AgriEnvironment-Conference-
2015.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 202 https://www.hsa.ie/eng/Your_Industry/Agriculture_Forestry/Further_Information/Fatal_Accidents/ Accessed
05/06/19 203 https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2016/january/title,88802,en.html Accessed 05/06/19 204 https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-
files/en/Publications/Community/FireandEmergencyServices/FileDownLoad%2C39516%2Cen.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 205 https://www.hsa.ie/eng/Your_Industry/Agriculture_Forestry/Further_Information/Fatal_Accidents/ Accessed
05/06/19 206 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24829142 Accessed 05/06/19 207 Purser P, Byrne K, Farrell E, Sweeney J. 2004. The potential impact of climate change on Irish Forestry. Irish Forestry
61:16-34
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
29
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
storm events compounded by waterlogged soils, resulted in extensive windthrow of approx. 8,000 ha (+/- 560 ha) with counties Kerry, Limerick, Cork and Clare most affected.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
• Annual reduction in the energy content of the wind of 3-7% for the medium to low emission ensemble and 3-6% for the high emission ensemble. However, projections indicate that there will be increases in extreme wind speeds (3-4% high emissions ensemble) over Ireland by mid-century. Projections indicate that the tracks of intense storms are projected to extend further south over Ireland. An increase in intense storms affecting Ireland by mid century is projected however the overall number of cyclones is projected to decrease.
• Ensemble projections indicate an increase in the occurrence of coastal storms and surges in spring and winter for all areas of the Irish coast with the exception of the southwest.
Animals
Livestock stress209 Low Low Low Low
Risk to out-wintered livestock seeking shelter210
Low Low Low Low
Infrastructure damage211 Medium Medium Low Medium
Access/transportation issues212 Low Low Low Low
Damage to coastal lands213 Low Low Low Medium
Temporary or urgent movement of livestock in sometimes dangerous conditions214
Low Medium Low Medium
Compliance difficulties with EU Nitrates Directive regarding slurry storage and land spreading215
Low Low Low Medium
Plants incl Forest
208 https://www.met.ie/climate/major-weather-events Accessed 05/06/19 209 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/animals/dairy/animalwelfare.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 210 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/animals/dairy/animalwelfare.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 211 https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-
files/en/Publications/Community/FireandEmergencyServices/FileDownLoad%2C39516%2Cen.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 212 https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-
files/en/Publications/Community/FireandEmergencyServices/FileDownLoad,39516,en.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 213 https://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/CCRP_28.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 214https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/animalhealthwelfare/transportofliveanimals/BestPractice_Welfare
AnimalsduringTransport.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 215 https://www.teagasc.ie/news--events/news/2014/weather-difficulties.php Accessed 05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/publications/2006/good_ag_practice_handbook.pdf Accessed
05/06/19
https://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/ruralenvironment/environment/nitrates/SI31of2014290114.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
30
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Mechanical damage to crops such as cereal lodging216
Medium Medium Low Medium
Forests sited on exposed, windy sites with poor drainage renders them vulnerable to wind damage217. Waterlogged soils increase the risk of Windthrow218
Medium Medium High High
Food Safety
Other
Damage to horticultural protective structures and infrastructure219
Medium Medium Low Medium
Infrastructure damage220 Medium Medium Low Medium
Health and safety issues221 Medium Medium Low Medium
HIGH LEVELS OF SOLAR RADIATION
Observed Events • In 2011 cereal yields were the highest on record. On average across all the cereals yields were up 13% on 2010 yields222.
Projected Change (2041-2060)
• Solar radiation varies due to solar activity levels, e.g. 11 year sun spot lifecycle and longer trends.
Animals
Plants incl Forest
Exceptional grain yields are thought to be closely associated with high solar radiation levels occurring at critical phases of the growing season223. Potential for new crops (eg:maize)
Medium Low Low Low
Food Safety
216 http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/will-lodging-problem-winter-cereal-crops-year/ Accessed 05/06/19 217 http://www.coford.ie/media/coford/content/researchprogramme/populararticles-fromcoford/Science_Spin_22.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19 218 http://www.coford.ie/media/coford/content/researchprogramme/populararticles-fromcoford/Science_Spin_22.pdf
Accessed 05/06/19 219 https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-
files/en/Publications/Community/FireandEmergencyServices/FileDownLoad%2C39516%2Cen.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 220 https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/default/files/migrated-
files/en/Publications/Community/FireandEmergencyServices/FileDownLoad%2C39516%2Cen.pdf Accessed 05/06/19 221 https://www.hsa.ie/eng/Your_Industry/Agriculture_Forestry/Further_Information/Fatal_Accidents/ Accessed
05/06/19 222 Spink, J. and Kennedy, S. (2012) Explaining cereal yields in 2011. In: National Tillage Conference 2012 Proceedings.
Teagasc, Oak Park. 223 https://www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2012/Tillage_Conf_Proceedings_2012.pdf Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
31
Observations Current Weight of Evidence
Current Magnitude of Impact
Confidence of Projected Assessment
Potential Future Magnitude of Impact
Other
Occupational exposure to sunburn224 and animal sunburn225
Medium Low Low Low
224 https://www.who.int/uv/publications/solaradgbd/en/ Accessed 05/06/19 225 https://animalagclimatechange.org/2019/protecting-livestock-from-uv-damage Accessed 05/06/19
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
32
Agriculture and Forestry Priority Impact Assessment Step 4 Prioritisation involved an examination of the completed Impact and Vulnerability Assessment
above. Climate impacts and vulnerabilities to be prioritised for more detailed analysis were
identified at this stage to highlight changes, impacts and vulnerabilities requiring specific and urgent
action. Adaptation efforts could then be focussed on setting goals and actions that can be taken to
address the issues.
The Impact and Vulnerability Assessment was reviewed with specific reference to the criteria of
Current Magnitude of Impact and Potential Future
Magnitude of Impact in line with the Guidelines (p. 28).
Those observations that were rated Medium or High in
both Current Magnitude of Impact and Potential Future
Magnitude of Impact in the Assessment formed the
basis of the priority impact chain (as part of step 3). The
internal stakeholder group considered further the
priority impact chain and identified those changes and
impacts considered to be a sectoral priority.
A series of case studies were then developed to
illustrate what climate change might mean for the
agriculture, forest and seafood sector.
The case studies set out examples or ‘stress tests’ of the sectors’ resilience in dealing with the types
of extreme weather events which may become more frequent or intense as the climate continues to
change in line with the long term scenarios detailed above. These case studies attempt to address
the need for stakeholders in each of the sectors to understand the findings of this exercise, and
apply adaptive actions in response.
Current Magnitude of Impact
The present size of an impact
measured in quantitative and
qualitative terms.
Potential Future Magnitude of
Impact
The size of an impact in the longer
term measured in quantitative and
qualititative terms.
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
33
Weather
Variable
Statement of Strategy
Area Affected Impact Sectoral Consequence Timing Priority
Increasing
Summer
Temperatures
Animals
Uncontrolled Fires Serious damage to forests, farmlands
and raised bogs; health and safety of
forest workers and farmers
Current Medium
Greater Grass Growth Longer grazing season Medium/Long Low
Survivability of exotic animal
vector borne diseases
Greater risk of disease for animals Current Medium
Plants Observation of exotic
pests/diseases
Impact on plant health Current Medium
Increasing Winter
Temperatures
Animals
Longer Grazing Season Animals outdoors; less heating and
maintenance costs (for confined
methods of production)
Medium/Long Low
Survivability of exotic animal
vector borne diseases
Disimprovement in health of animals Current Medium
Plants
Observation of exotic
pests/diseases
Impact on plant health
Current Medium
Accelerated plant growth Can give rise to disease issues when
combined with wet weather
Medium/Long Medium
Animals and Plants
Compliance difficulties with Slurry storage and land spreading Current Medium
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
34
Increase in
Winter
Precipitation
EU Nitrates Directive issues; financial penalties
Plants
Floods, soil compaction,
fertiliser/pesticide run off
Water pollution and quality;
deterioration in soils; erosion
Current Medium
Waterlogged soils Trafficability; access for farm
machinery; soil quality issues;
damage to infrastructure; increase in
windthrow
Current Medium/High
Impacts on conducting field
operations at the desired
time
Plant health, cultivation and
harvesting; increased costs
Current Medium
Re-establishment of
damaged cereal crops
Lesser crop yield; poorer quality
crops; damage from pests
Current Medium
Decrease in
Summer
Precipitation
Food Safety Increased irrigation Could lead to the risk of
microbiological contamination of
plants
Current Medium
Phenology
Plants
Changes to crop growth
patterns
Positive (longer growing season) and
negative (shorter growing season).
Will influence species and varietal
selections
Medium/Long Medium
Increased growth early/late
in season
Positive (allows seeds to bud) and
negative (susceptible to frost)
Medium/Long Medium
Heat stress for animals Disimprovement in health of animals Current Medium
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
35
Heat
Waves/Drought
Animals
Revised grazing protocols Medium
Poor grass growth and lack
of fodder
Disimprovement in health of
animals; reduced number of animals;
increased costs
Current Medium
Soil moisture deficits and
deterioration of soil quality
Poor quality soils; areas unsuitable
for certain types of farming
Medium/Long Medium
Evacuation of animals Stress to animals and farmers Medium/Long Medium
Food Safety Groundwater exposure to
pesticides
Water pollution and quality issues;
damaged soils
Medium/Long Medium
Other
Uncontrolled Fires Serious damage to forests,
farmlands, raised bogs and
peatlands; health and safety of
forest workers and farmers
Current Medium/High
Health and safety risks to
farmers and agricultural
workers
Farmer and agricultural worker well-
being and health concerns
Medium/Long Medium
Cold Spells Plants Plants affected (e.g. by
early/late frost)
Plant damage and mortality Current Medium
Damaged silage/grass
utilisation
Increased costs; disimprovement in
health of animals; reduced numbers
of animals
Current Medium
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
36
Extreme
Precipitation
Animals
Compliance difficulties with
Nitrates Directive
Slurry storage and land spreading
issues; financial penalties
Current Medium
Waterlogged soils Trafficability; access for farm
machinery; soil quality issues;
damage to infrastructure
Current Medium/High
Difficult harvesting
conditions
Safety of farmers and animals;
impact on field operations (plants)
being completed at the appropriate
time
Current Medium
Animals and Plants
Floods, soil compaction,
erosion,
fertiliser/pesticide/surface
run off of nutrients
Water pollution quality;
deterioration of soils
Current Medium
Plants
Re-establishment of
damaged cereal crops
Lesser crop yield; poorer quality
crops; delayed harvesting; damage
from pests
Current Medium
Waterlogged soils Increase in windthrow Current Medium/High
Other
Infrastructure damage Damage and destruction of
agricultural assets and
communications; areas become
(temporarily) unavailable for
farming; health and safety of forest
workers and farmers
Current Medium
Assessment of Climate Vulnerabilities and Impacts
37
Health and safety risks to
farmers and agricultural
workers
Farmer and agricultural worker well-
being and health concerns
Medium/Long Medium
Storms
Animals Evacuation of animals Stress and possible injury to animals
and farmers
Current Medium
Plants
Damage to plants Financial costs and economic loss;
difficulty in re-establishment
Current Medium
Windthrow/damage to
forests
Tree damage and premature clearfell
caused by windthrow; health and
safety issues for forest workers;
damage to infrastructure;
commercial losses
Current Medium/High
Other
Infrastructure damage Damage and destruction of
agricultural assets and
communications; areas become
(temporarily) unavailable for
farming; health and safety of forest
workers and farmers
Current Medium
Health and safety risks to
farmers and agricultural
workers
Farmer and agricultural worker well-
being and health concerns; less
people working in the sector (long
term)
Medium/Long Medium
i
Agriculture and Forest Background Information – 2017
Adaptation Planning document
Adaptation Planning - Developing Resilience to
Climate Change in the Irish Agriculture and Forest
Sector
ii
July 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION 4
2. AGRICULTURE & CLIMATE ADAPTATION 6
3. OBSERVATIONS OF CURRENT CLIMATE IMPACTS 17
4. FUTURE RISKS & CHALLENGES FOR THE AGRICULTURE & FOREST SECTOR 27
5. CROSS SECTORAL IMPLICATIONS 38
6. ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR THE AGRICULTURE & FOREST SECTOR 42
7. MONITORING, REVIEW & EVALUATION 49
8. CONCLUSION 50
List of Abbreviations i
Glossary ii
References v
Appendix 1– List of Plans, Policies & Programmes 9
Appendix 2 - Summary of themes arising from public consultation 10
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Table 1: High and Medium Priority Observations 18
Table 2: Cost of the FMD Outbreak to the Irish Economy 40
Table 3: Adaptation Options for the Agriculture and Forest Sector 46
Figure 1: National Hierarchy of Statutory and Non-Statutory Sectoral Adaptation Plans 6
Figure 2: Profile of Land & Agriculture Sector (Expressed in Rounded ‘000 ha) 9
Figure 3: Average Annual Rainfall 1941-2010 (Met Éireann, 2016b) 14
iii
Figure 4: Mean Temperature Anomaly 1900-2014 (Met Éireann, 2016c) 15
Figure 5: Fire Storm Damage 22
Figure 6: Wild Fires 23
Figure 7: Likely Increase in the Number of Annual & Autumn Very Wet Days in the High Emissions
Scenario 28
Figure 8: Past (1981 – 2000) & Future (2041-2060) Tracks of Storms with MLSP less than 940hPa & at
Least 12 Hours Lifetime 29
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1. INTRODUCTION
Developing resilience to climate change represents a considerable challenge for the Irish agriculture and forest sector. The sector must be in a position to anticipate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change, as well as looking to maximise the benefits for the food production system. As is set out in the National Policy Position, the long term vision for the Agriculture, Forest and Land Use Sectors is based on an approach to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land-use sector, including forestry, which does not compromise capacity for sustainable food production. This effectively means that we are aiming to approach carbon neutrality by reducing emissions from the land sector, increasing carbon-sequestration, increasing fossil fuel and energy intensive materials displacement. This vision aligns with the European Council Conclusions in October 2014 and also the Programme for a Partnership Government which sets out the objective to be achieved in this sector as to balance the control of agricultural emissions with the economic and social objective of promoting the sustainable development of a rural economy.
The Irish agriculture sector is committed to ensuring that growth continues on basis of sustainability so that Ireland can play its part in meeting the increasing global food demand while having regard to Ireland’s climate obligations. The sector is also committed, through proactive use of research, technology and institutional arrangements, to demonstrate how better sustainable agricultural and land management and resource efficiency can reduce (absolute) emissions through improvements in emissions intensity while improving the resilience of food production systems and contributing to climate action.
1.1 STATUTORY FRAMEWORK
The extent of the challenge posed by climate change is clearly understood: the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015 provides for the submission of five-yearly National Mitigation Plans and iterative National Adaptation Frameworks to Government. Sectoral and local adaptation plans are also required.
In the area of adaptation, the 2015 Act was preceded in 2012 by the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (NCCAF) to provide a strategic policy focus to ensure adaptation measures are taken across different sectors and levels of government to reduce Ireland’s vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change.
This document has been prepared in accordance with the 2012 Framework and represents a first step by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine in developing a climate change adaptation approach for the agriculture and forest sector.
1.2 AIM OF THE DOCUMENT
The aim of this document is to identify and discuss adaptation challenges that need to be considered regarding developing resilience to the effects of climate change within the agriculture and forest sector. By identifying vulnerabilities now, the sector can increase resilience to the changing climate and extreme events. Having a robust agriculture and forest sector is not only important to the sector itself but also to the national economy and to Ireland’s global trading partners. A climate resilience agriculture and forest sector should be able to grow sustainably, resist climate shocks and pursue
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climate change related opportunities.
1.3 PUBLIC CONSULTATION
A draft version of this document for the agriculture and forest sector and the accompanying SEA and AA screening documents, were released on the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) website in November 2016 for a nine week public consultation period.
15 submissions were received when the public consultation closed on 27 January 2017. These submissions were analysed and where appropriate, reflected in this document, the SEA and AA screening documents. It should be noted that a number of the submissions raised issues which are beyond the scope of this document, but will be retained for use in future iterations. One such issue relates to income volatility. Issues for consideration include disruption of supply chains, impacts on exports and imports, insurance and the impact of climate change on the world economy and how this affects the sector.
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2. AGRICULTURE & CLIMATE ADAPTATION
As noted in the Introduction, prior to the adoption of the 2015 Act, the 2012 framework set out the requirement for the development and implementation of sectoral and local adaptation action plans to form part of the comprehensive national response to the impact of climate change (DECLG, 2012).
The 2012 framework identified the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) as the lead department charged with the development of plans for the marine, agriculture and forest sectors. This document focuses on the agriculture and forest226sector,and precedes the adaptation plan requirements that will flow from the development of a new adaptation framework under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015.
Figure 1 below highlights the current hierarchy of statutory and non-statutory national and sectoral adaptation plans:
National Climate Change Adaptation Framework 2012
Climate Action and Low Carbon
Development Act 2015
National Climate Change Adaptation
Framework
Due by December 2017
Statutory SectoralAdaptation Plans
Non-Statutory Sectoral Adaptation
Plans
Figure 1: National Hierarchy of Statutory and Non-Statutory Sectoral Adaptation Plans
Clearly, as well as an influencing element, the Irish agriculture and forest sector is also reliant on environmental and climatic factors; therefore, adapting to changes in climate is crucial for the continued development of the sector.
In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that the human influence on climate change is clear (IPCC, 2013). The global impact from recent climate related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires reveal
226 a marine plan is being developed separately
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significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems to current climate variability.
Some consequences (risks and opportunities) of climate change are considerable at just one or two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels (IPCC, 2014b). For example, the IPCC Working Group II paper AR5 notes that there is diverging evidence concerning future impacts of plant food production within Northern Europe. Positive yield changes combined with the expansion of climatically suitable areas could lead to crop production increases (between 2.5 degrees Celsius and 5.4 degrees Celsius regional warming) (Bindi and Olesen, 2011). However, increased climatic variability would limit winter crops expansion (Peltonen-Sainio et al., 2010) and cause, at high latitudes, high risk of marked cereal yield loss (Rötter et al., 2011).
As noted in the Introduction, this document is a first step for the sector in terms of adaptation to climate change in Ireland. The objectives of the document are as follows:
• To analyse the changes that have already occurred to Ireland’s climate and the vulnerabilities which are currently in place in the sector.
• To identify the projected changes to Ireland’s climate and analyse the potential impacts and vulnerabilities which could occur within the sector.
• Set out adaptation options which would build resilience and reduce the vulnerability of the sector.
• Establish steps to monitor the implementation of these options.
It is inevitable that long term changes in temperature and rain fall patterns will have an impact on the agriculture and forest sector. Hence, eliminating vulnerabilities, building resilience and adapting now, is imperative.
2.1 ADAPTATION & MITIGATION
A first step towards adapting to future climate change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate variability. The Working Group II report from the IPCC has identified that steps that build resilience and enable sustainable development can accelerate successful climate-change adaptation globally (IPCC, 2014a).
Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2014a). Adaptation and mitigation are both essential elements in addressing the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change.
Mitigation refers to actions to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that are driving climate change. Undoubtedly the most effective method to reduce the potential effects of climate change is to mitigate against its causes. Internationally, governments have agreed that emissions need to be reduced so that global temperature increases are limited to two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. However, even if this two degree Celsius target is met, the climate will continue to change due to the historic levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, making adaptation a necessary course of action. The UNFCCC has recognised that adaptation must be addressed with the same priority as mitigation (UNFCCC, 2014).
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The IPCC advises that since adaptation is place and context specific, no single approach for reducing risks is appropriate across all settings. Therefore, effective risk reduction and adaptation strategies should consider the dynamics of vulnerability and exposure and their linkages with socioeconomic processes, sustainable development, and climate change.
In 2013 the European Commission adopted the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate resilient. The EU Adaptation Strategy focuses on three key objectives: promoting action by member states, climate proofing action at EU level and better informed decision making. The EU also provides guidelines on integrating climate into policies and investments and using the instruments and funds provided by the Commission for climate change adaptation (European Commission, 2013). As climate change does not stop at political or economic boundaries, working in tandem with fellow member states is imperative.
2.2 METHODOLOGY & OUTLINE
2.2.1 Methodology
Through the work of the National Adaptation Steering Group led by the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment (DCCAE) and the ‘Ireland’s Climate Information Platform (ICIP) Phase 3’ project, the approach used to create this document followed five steps.
1. Building the Adaptation Team – an internal stakeholder team was established. As the area covered by the agriculture and forest sector is diverse, this team included experts on; meat and milk policy, horticulture, animal health and welfare, animal feeding stuffs, biodiversity, climate change, crops, forest and pesticides.
2. Climate Impact and Vulnerability Screening – in order to identify the full range of current and potential future climate impacts and vulnerabilities for the agriculture and forestry sector in Ireland, an extensive and national scale assessment of current and potential future climate impacts and vulnerabilities was undertaken. This assessment was based on literature review and stakeholder inputs and produced a list of the known range of current and potential future climate impacts. This assessment formed the base to prioritise current and potential future impacts and vulnerabilities, priority areas and response capacity.
3. More Detailed Analysis of Priority Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities – Climate impacts and vulnerabilities identified as priority in Step 2 (Climate Impact Screening) were then subject to more detailed assessment and were reviewed in light of observed and projected changes to climatic drivers (and at a regional level), the current weight of evidence and the confidence in the projected assessment and the magnitude and likelihood of impacts.
4. Identifying, Assessing and Prioritising Options – an exercise was carried out to identify the existing adaptation options based on the current impacts and vulnerabilities identified in step two. These current adaptation options were then used as a basis to identify potential future adaptation options.
5. Monitor, Review and Evaluate – steps have been outlined to ensure that the adaptation options will be monitored, reviewed and evaluated.
2.2.2 Outline
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Section Two of this document presents the background to adaptation, both internationally and nationally. It is likely that all areas within the agriculture and forest sector will be affected by climate change and will need to adapt.
Section Three and Section Four explore the results from the steps outlined at two and three in the methodology set out above, while Section Five outlines cross sectoral issues and impacts from climatic drivers.
Possible adaptation options identified as part of step four of the methodology are set out in Section Six. Section Seven sets out the indicators for reviewing, monitoring and evaluating the adaptation options as per step five and the document concludes in Section Eight.
2.3 OVERVIEW OF THE AGRICULTURE & FOREST SECTOR
Ireland is a major meat, dairy and food exporting country with comparatively abundant resources in the context of global water and soil quality. Ruminant production, which is the mainstream of Irish agriculture, is very much based on sustainability principles. Some 90 per cent of the diet of dairy and beef animals is composed of grass or silage that is grown on farm in permanent pastures on which the livestock are reared.
Figure 2: Profile of Land & Agriculture Sector (Expressed in Rounded ‘000 ha)
In 2010, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (Leip et al, 2010) published a study, which confirms that Ireland is one of the most carbon efficient food producers in the world. Compared with other EU Member States, Ireland is (with Austria) the lowest in terms of carbon footprint for dairy production. The carbon footprint of Irish beef production is below the EU average. However, in Ireland, agriculture emissions make up over 30 per cent of the national emissions profile. It is likely that as the various sectors decarbonise, the land sector including agriculture will become the dominant sector in reported emissions and removals.
The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) actively promotes and supports practices to mitigate these emissions. For example, afforestation supported under the Forest
10
Programme 2014-2020 is a significant mitigation measure available. Within the agriculture sector there is low mitigation potential. However, DAFM and its agencies have developed a number of programmes and measures such as: the Origin Green Programme, which at farm level incorporates the Carbon Navigator tool; the Pasture Profit Index and Pasture Base Ireland, and animal health improvement measures including the Compulsory BVD Eradication Programme in addition to a suite of climate action measures available within Ireland’s Rural Development Programme 2014-2020. The sustainable development of Ireland’s agriculture and forest sector is inherent in the design and implementation of the ten-year national agri-food strategy Food Wise 2025.
2.3.1 AGRICULTURE
The land area of Ireland is 6.9million hectares, of which approximately 4.5million hectares is used for agriculture. Of this figure, 81 per cent is devoted to grassland (pasture, hay and grass silage), with a further 11 per cent being classed as rough grazing. Grass is the most important crop in Ireland and underpins the Irish dairy and beef industry. The long term trend is for an increase in the intensity of grassland management in response to the projected increase in grass based farm output, particularly in the dairy sector.
In 2016, the livestock sector in Ireland accounted for over 80 per cent of agricultural goods output (excluding forage). For 2015, the total bovine population of Ireland was 6.9million cattle of which almost 1.4million are dairy cows (CSO, June 2016). The sheep, pig and poultry sector populations amount to approximately 5.1million, 1.5million, and 11million respectively.
Commercial crop production in Ireland occupies an area of approximately 0.38million hectares and accounts for about 8 per cent of the agricultural land area in Ireland (DAFM, 2016b). A unique feature of Irish crop production is that cereals dominate the land area laid down to crops. Spring barley is the most important crop grown by farmers, accounting for between 50-60 per cent of national cereal area, while winter wheat, winter barley and winter and spring oats are the other important grain crops, along with maize, potatoes and oilseed rape. The trend in crop production activity has seen consolidation onto the suitable soils and favourable climate regions in Ireland. Ireland is not self sufficient in grain production and thus relies on imports to meet demand. It is likely that this trend will continue as forecasts indicate a slight reduction to land area laid down to tillage production (Donnellan and Hanrahan, 2014).
The agri-food227 sector is one of Ireland’s most important indigenous manufacturing industries. Employment in the agri-food sector accounted for 165,700 jobs at the end of June 2016. Much of the economic benefits in the agri-food sector, both direct and indirect, are dispersed throughout the country making it particularly important to rural areas.
The sector is playing a significant role in economic development through its use of indigenous raw material, low profit repatriation, export orientation and high level of economic expenditure particularly in the rural economy.
2.3.2 FOREST
227 The agri-food sector includes primary production (Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry) along with Food, Beverages & Tobacco (grouped together in National Income classification) and wood processing sectors.
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According to the most recent National Forest Inventory, 10.5 per cent of the land area of Ireland, or 731,650 hectares, is covered by forest. Conifers account for 68.6 per cent, broadleaves 17.5 per cent and mixed forests 13.9 per cent of the stocked forest area. Sitka spruce is the most common species, occupying 52.4 per cent of the forest area. Over one quarter of the forest estate contains broadleaves. Of the broadleaves 33.9 per cent are ‘other broadleaf species’ (both long living and short living), of which over half are willow. The next largest broadleaf species group is birch species (22.7 per cent), and ash (12.5 per cent), followed by oak (10.2 per cent) (DAFM, 2015c). Ireland, the Netherlands and Malta are the least wooded countries in the European Union where average forest is 38 per cent (The World Bank, 2016).
Since 1990 almost 312,000 hectares have been afforested, accounting for 40 per cent of the current forest cover and represents a land use change across 4 per cent of the country. Agriculture and afforestation are intrinsically linked in Ireland. Every new hectare of afforestation comes directly from agriculture.
Roundwood harvest in 2014 was over 3million cubic metres. One third of the harvest was used to substitute fossil fuels, primarily as process heat in the board milling and sawmilling sectors, but also for power generation and for domestic and commercial heating.
Sawnwood output was over 800,000 cubic metres, while wood panel output was close to the same figure. These products can store carbon for several decades and at the same time they substitute for energy intensive materials such as concrete, steel and aluminium, which also contributes to climate change mitigation.
2.4 AGRICULTURE & FOREST POLICY & LEGISLATIVE AIMS & OBJECTIVES
The agriculture and forest sector is governed by a large amount of legislation, international and national agreements; the area is also influenced by national policies, plans and programmes. A short overview of a number of these areas is provided in the next section; however, Appendix 1 lists further plans, policies and programmes. Whilst this list is comprehensive it should not be considered exhaustive.
2.4.1 INTERNATIONAL
At an international level, the historic Paris Agreement reached at COP21 in December 2015 clearly recognises in Article 2.1b that efforts to limit global temperature increases to less than 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue 1.5 degree Celsius must do so in a manner that does not threaten food production. This global agreement is in the Irish agriculture and forest sector’s interests as it is vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, a global treaty provides a level playing field for all countries to pursue transition to sustainable, low greenhouse gas, climate resilient economies and societies.
Ireland’s target under the Paris Agreement is part of the EU wide target of an “at least 40 per cent reduction in domestic greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990”, which was agreed at European Council (October 2014) and presented to the UNFCCC as part of the European Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in March 2015. The EU target for non-ETS (Emissions Trading Sector) sector, which includes agriculture, is a 30 per cent reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 by 2030. This target is broken down into individual Member States targets. The proposal for an Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) provides binding annual GHG emissions targets for Ireland for the non-ETS sector of 30 per cent below the 2005 level by 2030 and includes a number of flexibilities.
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The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the main driver of agriculture across the EU. As well as providing direct support payments through Pillar 1, the CAP also provides funds for rural development and environmental stewardship through the Rural Development Programme. The CAP aims to integrate the multiple functions that agriculture and land use provides for society from food production to maintenance of biodiversity, soils and landscapes.
One major policy area that directly affects the agriculture and forest sector but which can also be affected by precipitation, storms and storm surges is the EU Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) which has been in place since 1991. The main aim of this directive is to protect water from pollution by agricultural sources and to promote the use of good farming practice. Under this directive Ireland is required to prepare a Nitrates Action Programme (NAP) which is reviewed every four years. Ireland’s NAP is currently undergoing its third review. The Department of Environment, Community and Local Government (DECLG, 2016), as it was formerly known, stated that Ireland’s Nitrates Action Programme is designed to prevent pollution of surface waters and ground water from agricultural sources and to protect and improve water quality. Measures include a limit on the amount of livestock manure applied to the land each year, set periods when land spreading is prohibited to minimise pollution risks and set capacity levels for the storage of livestock manure over the winter housing period.
The European Union (Good Agricultural Practice for Protection of Waters) Regulations commonly referred to as the “Nitrates Regulations” or “GAP Regulations” give legal effect to Ireland’s Nitrates Action Programme. Local Authorities are responsible for enforcing the Nitrates Regulations.
2.4.2 NATIONAL
The recently enacted Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015 places Ireland’s national climate policy on a statutory basis for the first time. It underlines Ireland’s commitment to achieving a low carbon transition and the whole of Government approach being taken to improving policy on climate issues. Specifically Ireland has committed to an approach to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land use sector, including forestry, which does not compromise capacity for sustainable food production.
Irish agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2015 have been reported to be 5.7 per cent below their 1990 levels (EPA, 2016); DAFM continues to work with state and industry stakeholders so as to seek greater future efficiencies in a sustainable Irish agriculture sector. In order to ensure sustainability in production, significant investment is being targeted to address potential negative impacts. Measures include:
• targeted research aimed at developing a better understanding of our national resources to optimise their use and informing appropriate policy interventions.
• investment through the Rural Development Programme, and
• the identification and confirmation of sustainability credentials for Irish agricultural production through auditing and measuring.
Food Wise 2025, the industry led strategy for the development of the Irish agri-food sector over the next decade, has sustainable production at its core. It sets out a range of specific recommendations
13
aimed at managing projected growth in a sustainable way. There is a strong commitment to the measurement and monitoring of the sustainability credentials of the sector as the strategy evolves.
The Rural Development Programme (RDP) 2014-2020 is worth approximately €4billion over the programme period and is strongly targeted towards environmental stewardship. Knowledge Transfer Schemes, the Beef Data and Genomics Programme and GLAS (Green Low-Carbon Agri-Environmental Scheme) are major components of the programme.
Other initiatives which make farmers and foresters more aware of environmental impacts include the Origin Green Programme, the Pasture Profit Index, the Carbon Navigator Tool and the Agricultural Catchments Programme.
DAFM research is informed by two Strategic Research Agendas which identify sector research priorities and include relevant climate change and adaptation related research areas. These are the Sustainable, Healthy Agri-food Research Plan (SHARP), published by a working group hosted by the DAFM in June 2015, and Forest Research Ireland (FORI) developed by a Working Group of the Competitive Forest Research for Development Council and published by the DAFM in October 2014.
Informed by the two research agenda DAFM funds competitive calls for ‘public good’ research through its three research programmes; the Food Institutional Research Measure (FIRM), the Research Stimulus Fund (RSF) – for primary agriculture production, and the Programme of Competitive Forest Research for Development (COFORD).
DAFM also promotes and supports Irish researcher’s participation in Horizon 2020, the EU funding programme for research and innovation, most specifically under Societal Challenge 2 for “Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Forestry, Marine, Maritime and Inland Water Research and the Bioeconomy”.
The current forest policy Forests, products and people - Ireland’s forest policy – a renewed vision (DAFM 2014a) sets out afforestation as a major greenhouse gas mitigation measure being taken on agricultural land. For the period 1990 to 2030, state investment in forestry will amount to €3.5billion.
Over 312,000 hectares of new forest has been planted since 1990. The objective is to plant up to 44,000 hectares from 2015 to 2020 with greater levels of planting from 2021 to 2030. Land use change and species selection has been considered in setting this ambitious target.
The Irish Forestry Programme 2014 – 2020 provides for investments in improving the resilience and environmental value of forestry. Measures include the thinning and tending of broadleaves and the environmental enhancement of forests. Provision for a reconstitution scheme for prevention of damage and restoration of forests has also been made under the Forestry Programme 2014 – 2020. It notes that support may be considered for private forest holders towards the restoration of forests damaged by natural causes, including wind, where more than 20 per cent of the forest potential has been damaged (DAFM, 2014b).
2.5 CHANGES & IMPACTS ON IRELAND’S CLIMATE
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Climate is time averaged weather and is thus inherently variable over space and time. Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer (IPCC, 2014a). Therefore, the effect of climate change does not refer to the weather experienced on a daily or seasonal basis but it rather refers to repeated incidences and unusual events that shift the average weather parameters (temperature, rainfall, etc.) of a region.
According to the IPCC’s AR5 report, each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere. Averaged over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation has increased since 1901 (IPCC, 2014a).
The climate of Ireland is influenced by the Atlantic Ocean; therefore, Ireland does not suffer from the extremes of temperature experienced by many other countries at similar latitude. The warm North Atlantic Drift has a marked influence on sea temperatures. This maritime influence is strongest near the Atlantic coasts and decreases with distance inland. The hills and mountains, many of which are near the coasts, provide shelter from strong winds and from the direct oceanic influence. Winters tend to be cool and windy, while summers are mostly mild and less windy (Met Éireann, 2015). For Ireland, an indication of the annual variation in weather between years is shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4 in terms of mean rainfall and temperature data.
Figure 3: Average Annual Rainfall 1941-2010 (Met Éireann, 2016b)
The mean temperature varies considerably from year to year. Warming periods occurred from the 1920s to 1940 and from the late 1980s to the present time. The warming at the end of the 20th century was greater and more rapid.
Rainfall shows great year to year variability. According to Met Éireann, a 30 year running mean of the national annual rainfall indicated an increase in average national rainfall of approximately 70mm over the last two decades.
15
Figure 4: Mean Temperature Anomaly 1900-2014 (Met Éireann, 2016c)
Weather and climate are significant factors that contribute to the variability in annual agricultural production and output. Variations in the magnitude of these meteorological parameters can have an effect on crop performance and the ability to carry out field operations.
Dwyer (2012) has analysed meteorological records and the results show that Ireland’s climate is changing in line with global patterns. Dwyer also highlights the state of Ireland’s climate based on the collation and analysis of over 40 different variables observed in the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial environments. Changes which have influenced the agriculture and forest sector include:
• The mean annual surface air temperature has increased by approximately 0.8oC over the last 110 years. The number of annual frost days (temperatures below 0 degrees Celsius) has decreased whilst the number of warm days (temperatures over 20 degrees Celsius) has increased.
• Average annual national rainfall has increased by approximately 60mm or 5 per cent in the period 1981 to 2010, compared to the 30-year period 1961 to 1990. However, clear changes in rainfall spatial patterns across the country cannot be determined with a high level of confidence.
• Observations of the timing of bud-burst for a number of tree species at the International Phenological Gardens228 indicate that the beginning of the growing season is now occurring more than a week earlier than in the 1970s, leading to an extension of the growing season. Such changes have been linked to a rise in average spring air temperature.
• Dwyer (2012) noted that carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations of more than 390 parts per million (ppm) as measured at Mace Head, Co. Galway are in line with observations from around the globe and are higher than at any time over the last 400 thousand years. Since then, the globally averaged concentration of CO2 reached the symbolic milestone of 400 ppm in 2015, Ireland’s current levels are 395 ppm. (www.macehead.org)
2.6 POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN IRELAND
228 The International Phenological Gardens (IPG) are a European and individual network within the Phenology Study Group of the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB). The IPG provide for large scale and standardized phenological observations.
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While climate change impacts are projected to increase in the coming decades and during the rest of this century, uncertainties remain about the scale and extent of these impacts, particularly during the second half of the century. Met Éireann (2013) set out projections for the future of the Irish climate some of which were refined in Nolan’s report, “Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Projections for Ireland” (2015) including:
• The observed mean temperature warming is expected to continue with an increase of ~1.5 degrees Celsius in mean temperatures by mid-century; the strongest signals are in winter and summer.
• Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days) with highest daytime temperatures projected to rise by up to 2 degrees Celsius in summer and lowest night-time temperatures to rise by up to 2-3 degrees Celsius in winter.
• Winters are expected to become wetter with increases of up to 14 per cent in precipitation under the high emission scenarios by mid-century; summers will become drier (up to 20 per cent reduction in precipitation under the high emission scenarios).
• The frequency of heavy precipitation events during winter shows notable increases of up to 20 per cent.
• Changes in precipitation are likely to have significant impacts on river catchment hydrology.
• Projections for sea level rise in Ireland remain uncertain, but, globally, sea level may increase as much as 0.82 m by the end of the 21st century (IPCC 2014b).
Storm surges are expected to increase in frequency around Irish coasts, especially in the west and northwest, and during winter (Wang et al. 2008).
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3. OBSERVATIONS OF CURRENT CLIMATE IMPACTS
Through literature review and stakeholder consultation, a screening exercise was undertaken to identify the wide range of impacts of observed and projected changes in climatic parameters as well as extreme weather events on the agriculture and forest sector. This analysis was undertaken to identify priority climate changes and impacts for the agriculture and forest sector.
In order to focus the analysis and due to the sheer size of the agriculture and forest sector, three initial areas were chosen; livestock, crop production, forest and an additional overarching area entitled “other”. This fourth category was created to contain those areas within the agriculture and forest sector which are not covered by livestock, crop production and forest such as wildfires, infrastructural damage and health and safety risks. The impact and vulnerability analysis was categorised by changes (observed and projected) in climatic variables (e.g. increasing temperatures) and extreme weather event type, e.g. heat waves. Importantly, projected impacts of extreme weather events were determined with reference to recorded impacts from recent extreme weather events.
The initial focus of this analysis was on impacts which have already occurred due to observed changes in Ireland’s climate and also due to recent extreme weather events, i.e. weather related events that had previously directly or indirectly affected the agriculture and forest sector. On this basis, vulnerabilities were identified and then assessed with reference to the current weight of evidence and magnitude of impact. Section three focuses on the future risks and challenges for the agriculture and forest sector.
Table 1 briefly summarises the high and medium priority observations of current impacts from each of the areas. The complete table which details all of the high, medium and low current observations grouped by weather variables and extreme events is available separately on request.
Observations were classified into low, medium and high categories based on their economic, environmental and social magnitude of impact. Below are examples of each classification, however, each area of magnitude of impact included a number of descriptors, some of which are not included in these examples:
• High: High economic cost with major property or recurrent damage. Widespread failure of ecosystem function or services and many fatalities or serious harm.
• Medium: Major disruption of national transport links. Important/medium-term consequences on species/habitat/landscape. Minor disruption to utilities.
• Low: Minor or very local consequences. No consequences on national or regional economy. Short-term/reversible effects on species/habitat/landscape or ecosystem services. Small reduction in community services.
In relation to a projection for the future, the observations are also categorised in terms of confidence in the assessment of the observation being carried forward and the potential future magnitude of impact.
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It is envisaged that the work of the Environmental Sustainability Committee (ESC) which reports to the Food Wise 2025 High Level Implementation Committee will feed into future iterations of the agriculture and forest sector adaptation plan. The role of the ESC includes the evaluation and assessment of the delivery of environmental sustainability and mitigation actions set out in the Food Wise Strategy Report and Implementation Plan.
Table 1: High and Medium Priority Observations
Area High Priority Observations Medium Priority Observations
Live
sto
ck
• Compliance difficulties with EU Nitrates Directive
• Surface run-off of nutrients
• Infrastructure damage
• Diseases
• Changes to grazing season and protocols
• Deterioration of soil quality
• Decreased trafficability and increased land poaching229
• Floods and erosion
• Stress to livestock
• Temporary or urgent movement of livestock
• Increased meal/silage requirements
• Limited/poorly conserved or damaged silage and grass utilisation
• Difficult harvesting conditions and reduced harvesting windows
• Exposure of groundwater to pesticides
• Water shortages
Cro
p P
rod
uct
ion
• Diseases
• Pests
• Floods and erosion
• Deterioration of soil quality
• Impacts on the timing of field operations
• Issues caused by delayed harvesting
• Crop suitability
• Reduced trafficability
• Physical/weather damage to crops
• Reduced crop yield due to extremes
• Increased requirement for water storage/ irrigation and climate control systems
• Re-sowing of damaged crops
• Damage to infrastructure
• Decreased frost losses
• Exposure of groundwater to pesticides
Fore
st
• Windthrow
• Infrastructure damage
• Health and safety issues
• Large Pine Weevil (Hylobius abietis) activity
• Later bud dormancy initiation
• Soil moisture deficits
• Increase in frost susceptibility due to early or late growth
• Increased risk of uncontrolled fires
Oth
er
• Increased risk of uncontrolled fires
• Health and safety risks
• Damage to infrastructure
• Access/transportation issues
While the observations rated as having a low impact are not included in Table 1, they have been taken into consideration in the more detailed analysis in this section.
229 Damage caused to pasture by livestock
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An in-depth analysis of the current vulnerabilities of the agriculture and forest sector to observed climate changes and recent extreme weather events which were regarded as high priority during the impact screening exercise follows.
3.1 OBSERVED IMPACTS - CASE STUDY EXAMPLES
The analysis found that extreme precipitation, storms, heat waves, drought, increased temperatures and the extension of the growing season have, and will, continue to affect all areas of the agriculture and forest sector. Examples of recent events involving climatic drivers, the direct effects of weather variables and phenological changes are set out within this section.
3.1.1 LIVESTOCK SECTOR
The vulnerability assessment identified over 60 impacts of gradual climate changes and extreme weather events on the livestock sector. These impacts related to housed, seasonally housed and non-housed livestock as well as effects on grassland.
A 2013 Teagasc conference on agriculture and future weather patterns, Future Weather – Future Farming underscored the fact that as Irish livestock production is pasture-based; grass growth is a key factor both in terms of the production potential and profitability of the livestock sector.
The livestock sector was severely impacted by the recent extreme precipitation events, which occurred during the winter of 2015/2016. Met Éireann reported that all seasonal rainfall totals were above their Long Term Average (LTA) with double or more LTA rainfall reported in parts of the south, east and southeast midlands. Monthly rainfall totals were above their monthly LTAs during all three months of winter. December had the wettest conditions with over 300 per cent LTA reported in parts of the south. Over half of the weather stations reported their wettest winter on record (Met Éireann, 2016a).
During this winter period there were also six named storms, with storm Frank bringing the highest 10 minute sustained mean wind speed of 55 knots at Sherkin Island on 30 December 2015. Further details on the direct affects of the extreme precipitation, storm events and flooding on farms are set out in Case Study 1; however, some additional affects were not noted until after the events and are as follows:
• The EU Nitrates Directive imposes a closed period when the spreading of organic livestock manures and synthetic fertilisers are prohibited. For cattle slurry, the closed period extends from 15 October to January 12/ 15/ 31 (depending on which part of the country a farm is located). Outside of the relevant closed periods, organic livestock manures or any chemical fertilisers should not be applied to land when it is waterlogged, flooded or likely to flood. Four of the named storms over the winter of 2015/16 happened within the closed period; however, two occurred at the start of February bringing further rain to already waterlogged soil. This resulted, essentially, in an extension of the closed period and caused a build up of slurry on farms. Reduced trafficability on the waterlogged soil further compounded the issue and farmers were reduced to waiting for land to dry out prior to removing livestock from housing and spreading slurry (Hennessy, 2016).
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• Due to the flooding and contaminated water there was an increased risk of disease to stock. A notable increase was recorded in fatal cases of both acute and chronic fluke in sheep (DAFM, 2016c). The DAFM annual fluke forecast had highlighted the increased risk posed to sheep flocks in 2015 year and many cases were also recorded in early January 2016 (DAFM, 2015d).
• As water rose on many farms so did the requirement for vermin control. Many farmers also experienced an inability to carry out planned actions under the GLAS scheme.
• Many farmers experienced losses to fodder stocks; this resulted in the recalculation of feed and feed supplementation to ensure that livestock nutritional requirements would be maintained. A repeat of the winter 2012 and spring 2013 fodder crisis was avoided during the winter of 2015/2016. The cost of the previous fodder crisis was estimated at €450million, further information is set out in Case Study 2.
Case Study 1 – Winter Floods
Extreme precipitation occurred during the winter of 2015/2016. Met Éireann reported that seasonal rainfall totals were above their long term average. During this winter period there were also six named storms.
In January 2016, the National Coordination Group for Response to Flooding advised that the rainfall had caused flooding to roads, properties, homes and farmland, over a widespread area (DECLG, 2016).
Farmers affected by the flooding experienced water damage to land, buildings, farm structures and homes as well as access issues. Flooding also damaged silage and other feed stocks and contaminated water increased the risk of diseases to stock.
Several initiatives to reduce hardship were introduced. One hundred and forty one farmers benefited under the provisions of the Emergency Welfare Scheme with 380 tonnes of concentrate feed worth almost €110,000 distributed by the end of January 2016. This was followed by the Fodder Replacement Scheme. Ultimately, the effects of the combined weather events over the winter 2015/2016 resulted in a package of cross sectoral measures being announced in early January 2016 (DAFM, 2016a).
Case Study 2 – The Fodder Crisis
During the summer of 2012, rainfall totals were above average nationally in the majority of areas which resulted in limited and poorly conserved silage. This event, together with the late spring of 2013, ultimately led to the fodder crisis of winter 2012 and spring 2013. The fodder crisis led to the rationing of forage, the movement of forage across the country and the importation of silage and hay.
The cost of this single fodder crisis was estimated to be in the region of €450million (Hennessy et al, 2013). The crisis led to the establishment of an Interagency Fodder Committee which was comprised of representatives from co-ops, media, Veterinary Ireland, Agricultural Consultants Association, Irish Grain and Feed Association, farm organisations (IFA, ICMSA, & Macra Na Feirme), DAFM and Teagasc.
A co-ordinated media campaign was delivered to raise awareness and provide technical guidance. The situation was regularly monitored over a nine month period via farm surveys.
3.1.2 CROP PRODUCTION SECTOR
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Areas of high impact were not noted for the crop production sector during the vulnerability assessment. However, a number of medium impact areas for protected and non-protected crops were highlighted. Observations were categorised as medium if the effects were regional or medium term.
Winter 2015/2016 witnessed unprecedented levels of precipitation as described previously. Estimates from the Teagasc advisers on impacts to the cereal crop area in January 2016 put flooding at 5-10 per cent and potential damage at less than five per cent, with most of the damage confined to areas flooded by rivers or low lying areas.
Farmers with higher value crops were the most immediately impacted. There were a small number of farmers with potatoes in the ground and under water. Harvesting of these crops was delayed. The harvesting of fodder beet also experienced delays which resulted in a fodder gap for farmers and a potential loss of sale for beet growers. Due to the flooding some farmers were faced with potentially re-sowing crops (Teagasc, 2016b).
Additional affects of the extreme precipitation, storm events and flooding on farms included:
• Reduced ground trafficability which resulted in areas of winter cereals in the north east and south west not receiving an autumn herbicide or an aphicide (Teagasc, 2016c);
• Timing of planting was also affected by the high soil moisture levels in early 2016. It was estimated that by April, less than 20 per cent of the national spring barley crop had been planted (Donnelly, 2016);
• Similar to livestock farmers, increased levels of vermin control was required due to high water levels and farmers experienced an inability to carry out planned actions under the GLAS scheme;
The crop production sector is also susceptible to changes in decreases in temperature especially during periods of prolonged cold weather, as occurred during winter 2010. Details on the effects of this cold spell are available in Case Study 3.
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3.1.3 FOREST SECTOR
The vulnerability assessment highlighted wind as having a high impact on the forest area. While wind tolerance varies among tree species, tree mortality will increase on very exposed sites. Constant winds can reduce tree growth; resulting in stunted trees with thick branches and reduced timber quality. In more sheltered sites winds and storms can cause basal sweep, windthrow and windbreak.
Basal sweep results in curved tree stems due to wind exposure, windthrow occurs when trees are blown down, and when a tree breaks or snaps it is termed windbreak (DCMNR, 2002).
Windthrow is usually classified as endemic or catastrophic. Endemic windthrow can sometimes be predictable whereas catastrophic windthrow is less predictable as it results from severe storms.
Large windthrow events can cause logistical difficulties, health and safety issues and can reduce the value of output due to large increases in market supplies.
Wind damage determinants include the windiness of the site and the characteristics of the forest. For example, unsheltered sites on higher ground may be greatly affected as would taller trees or tress on sites with shallow or wet soils (DCMNR, 2002
Storm Darwin occurred on 12 February 2014. According to Met Éireann (McGrath, 2015), the climate records suggest that the Darwin storm was broadly a 1 in 20 year event although locally, the categorisation as 'worst in living memory' may be appropriate in the worst affected regions. Figure 5 details the damage caused by this storm and outlines the spatial aspect of the damage which can occur as a result of a severe windthrow event. Further information on the impact of Storm Darwin is set out in Case Study 4.
Case Study 3 – Winter Freezing
In January 2010 Ireland was gripped by a period of prolonged cold weather. Temperatures were well below freezing for a number of consecutive days with severe frosts and snow.
Field vegetable and potato growers with crops in the ground were seriously affected through reductions in the proportion of saleable crops. A number of entire crops were rendered valueless. In some cases the loss experienced threatened the ability of the affected growers to continue in business.
As an exceptional measure, in light of the significant crop losses experienced by potato and field vegetable growers, a Frost Damage Compensation Scheme was introduced. The Scheme focused on potato and vegetable producers that had losses of over 30 per cent of their annual historic production. 180 growers received compensation from the national exchequer under the Scheme.
Figure 5: Fire Storm Damage
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The projected increased occurrence and magnitude of storm events is likely to increase the risk of windthrow in the future. Windthrow risk models have been developed for Irish forestry (Ni Dhubhain, 1998), based on probability of windthrow risk using a number of stand and site variables. However, these
models will need linkages to future climate change scenarios to account for the higher frequency of cyclones and increased wind speed on stand stability in the future.
The forest sector may also be affected in the future by the extension of the growing seasons. While this has not had a major impact in Ireland to date, observations of the timing of bud-burst for a number of tree species at the Phenological Gardens indicate that the beginning of the growing season is now occurring more than a week earlier than in the 1970s, leading to an extension of the growing season (Dwyer, 2012). This may lead to an increase in spring damage in some forest tree species.
Case Study 4 – Winter Storms
The winter of 2013/2014 was wetter than average and storm force winds occurred on 12 separate days between December 2013 and February 2014. This led to a large increase in rainfall on land which was already heavily saturated. The frequency and ferocity of the storms, compounded by waterlogged soils, resulted in extensive windthrow of approximately 8000 ha (+/- 560ha), with counties Kerry, Limerick, Cork and Clare most affected.
Following this period the Windblow Taskforce was established. This Taskforce included representatives from the Irish Forest and Forest Products Association, Irish Timber Growers Association, Coillte, Irish Farmers Association, DAFM and Teagasc.
The estimation of the area, volume and extent of the damage using satellite imagery was undertaken. DAFM recommend the removal of windblown timber and also created a guidance note to assist forest owners in assessing and planning the harvest of this timber. The applications for felling licenses required as a result of storm damage were prioritised by DAFM.
3.1.4 OTHER
The vulnerability assessment identified a number of impacts of gradual climate changes and extreme events, the majority of which affected all three areas of livestock, crop production and forest.
The area of increased, uncontrolled wildfires was highlighted as having a high impact in relation to loss of life. Wildfires are not commonly associated
with the mild and moist climate of Ireland; however, there have been 10 wildfire related
deaths in the past 15 years in Ireland (Teagasc, 2016d). Wildfires usually occur in rural areas and therefore, can directly and indirectly have an effect on, as well as being influenced by, all areas of agriculture and forest.
Figure 6: Wild Fires
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During 2011, for example, wildfires spread through the north west of Ireland and fire fronts were up to four kilometres wide. Almost seven per cent of the landscape of the North West was blackened and some fires were substantial to the extent that their locations and hot spots were picked up by MODIS satellite imagery, operated by the European Forest Fire Information System (NASA, 2011). 16,000 hectares were destroyed by wildfires in 2011, resulting in a cost of €20million. A prolonged period of dry weather in early 2017 also resulted in increased fire risk which, combined with windy conditions and deliberate burning of vegetation, resulted in fire spreading across thousands of hectares of gorse, bog, agricultural land and forest. In Cloosh Valley, Co. Galway it is estimated that a third of Ireland’s largest forest was burnt in addition to thousands of hectares of bog.
Met Éireann (2011) records show that the spring of 2011 had mean air temperatures above normal for the season, by between one and two degrees Celsius across the country. It was the warmest spring on record since 1997 in the west of Ireland. The highest spring temperature of 22.7 degrees Celsius was recorded in Shannon Airport on 21 April 2011. Rainfall totals were below normal almost everywhere, except for areas near the Atlantic coast while Dublin Airport noted its driest spring since 1990.
Health and safety was also highlighted as an issue across the agriculture and forest sector. Farmers and foresters work outside in all types of climatic conditions and can be particularly at risk during extreme events, from storms, high winds and heat waves.
In a 2013 report the Environmental Protection Agency (Pascal et al, 2013) noted that during the 1995 heat wave an excess mortality of 54 deaths was observed between 22 and 30 June 1995 in rural areas. The majority concerned people older than 74 (36 extra deaths). The report went on to note that although rural areas are not affected by the urban heat island230 effect, small towns may also have a concentration of elderly people. Occupational exposure is also a concern during heat waves – either environmental (people working outdoors) or workplace exposure (indoors, for instance working near ovens). Heat increases physical strain and can lead to inattentiveness, potentially leading to an increase in work accidents. The report concludes that farming and outdoor work may partly explain the increased mortality observed in rural areas.
The Health and Safety Authority has stated that the fatality rate in agriculture is far higher than any other economic sector (Health and Safety Authority, 2016). As the majority of work on farms and in forests occurs outside, working with the current and forecasted weather must always be considered. Stress to farmers and foresters during and after extreme events is also a health and safety concern.
Research indicates that, in general, farmers’ attitudes to safety only changes after serious injury occurs (Health and Safety Authority, 2016). The Code of Practice for Preventing Injury and Occupational Ill Health in Agriculture (Health and Safety Authority, 2006) refers to the weather and various climatic drivers throughout the sector such as working in windy or warm conditions. Case Study 5 further explores this topic.
230 Urban Heat Island is used to refer to the relative warmth of a city in comparison to the surrounding rural areas.
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Case Study 5 – Health & Safety
Since the establishment of the Health and Safety Authority (HSA) in 1989 the workplace fatality rate has declined from almost five to two per 100,000 workers. However, in the agriculture sector the fatality rate remains consistently high at 16 per 100,000 workers (HSA, 2015). Therefore, agriculture workers are eight times more likely to die in a work related accident. The majority of work on farms and in forests occurs outside; therefore, workers must be equipped with health and safety knowledge which can be applied to all weather conditions and events.
In order to reduce the number of agriculture workplace accidents DAFM and Teagasc has worked with the HSA on a number of farm safety initiatives including, inter alia, establishment of a the development of farm safety DVDs, forest safety demonstrations following Storm Darwin and the inclusion of farm safety as a topic under the Knowledge Transfer Groups.
3.2 ADEQUACY OF CURRENT ACTIONS
Uncertainty is not only a major part of planning for the future potential effects of climate change but it also applies to individuals in the agriculture and forest sector on a daily basis. Advances in technology have assisted farmers and foresters however, “growers still have to monitor a number of crop growing factors and anticipate weather conditions and set the controls accordingly. Results therefore, depend on the grower’s experience, attention to detail and intuition.” While Kehoe (2015) directed his comments towards the production of strawberries, they can be applied across all areas of agricultural and forest production. Farmers and foresters have knowledge at hand, however, they must adapt to the changing conditions.
Therefore, providing farmers with increased access to knowledge is an important action that DAFM is undertaking. Knowledge Transfer groups have been established in the Beef, Sheep, Dairy, Poultry, Tillage and Equine sectors, with plans for 27,000 participants over three years. These Knowledge Transfer groups are aimed at underpinning farm viability, sustainability and growth through the adoption of best practice and innovative solutions to increase resilience. The Teagasc ConnectEd Professional Knowledge Network aims to meet the need for greater engagement with professionals and businesses that provide services to the agri-food sector through education, skills development and knowledge exchange (Teagasc, 2016f).
Nationally, the recovery from extreme weather events can often require short term interventions, such as in the face of unprecedented levels of precipitation during the winter of 2015/2016. Some of the steps taken while reactionary, e.g. the Emergency Welfare Scheme, the Emergency Fodder Supply Scheme and the Emergency Flood Damage Relief, were a direct result of the deterioration of the weather. The Windblow Taskforce was established as a direct consequence of Storm Darwin and resulted in, inter alia, the prioritisation of processing of the applications for felling licenses within DAFM.
However, these short term measures can transform into longer term actions such as the recent establishment of the River Shannon Co-Ordination Group and the Flood Forecasting Unit staffed by OPW and Met Éireann. These measures can assist in building resilience and reducing vulnerabilities to future events. For example, the work of the Interagency Fodder Committee in 2012/2013 assisted in avoiding a repeat fodder crisis during the winter of 2014 and the ongoing work on animal disease surveillance and detection will be useful for future outbreaks. In light of their experience during the winter of 2009/2010 potato and vegetable growers are now more likely to employ various crop
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husbandry methods to avoid loss of crops due to frost. These methods include covering root vegetable crops with straw mulch or earlier harvest of potatoes followed by controlled atmosphere storage.
Cross agency action is also in place in relation to a number of factors such as the continual promotion of farm safety with the Health and Safety Authority and the various Met Éireann weather warnings which are in place.
The actions taken by DAFM are set out in plans, policies and programs as detailed in the previous section, for example the Knowledge Transfer Scheme is under the current Rural Development Plan (RDP). The RDP, which is in place from 2014 to 2020, like many other plans, policies and programs, was prepared following a period of public consultation and was subject to a Strategic Environment Assessment and an Appropriate Assessment. The National Nitrates Action Programme must be reviewed at least every four years. Therefore, these plans, policies and programs have the ability to adapt and build future resilience based on lessons learned during the lifetime of previous plans, policies and programmes.
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4. FUTURE RISKS & CHALLENGES FOR THE AGRICULTURE & FOREST SECTOR
The future climatic conditions that the Irish agriculture and forest sector will have to adapt to have been projected with various levels of confidence; ultimately, understanding the potential impacts of changing weather patterns as a consequence of climate change is essential for informing and developing adaptation strategies and actions. It has been projected that climate change may change the scale and frequency of extreme events (Met Éireann, 2013), which could potentially effect agricultural and forest production in Ireland, both directly and indirectly.
Aspects of the changing climate may provide opportunities for the agriculture and forest sector.
Studies have indicated that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide globally are projected to
increase and thereby improve the net biomass production of agricultural crops (Iglesias et al, 2007);
projected temperatures are expected to further increase the growing season and may result in
increased grass yields. Other opportunities for Ireland include the increased suitability of growth
conditions for some types of crops or tree species, greater use of minimum tillage techniques and
increased nitrogen mineralisation in soils due to increased temperatures which could lead to
reduced chemical fertiliser usage. Also decreases in spring frosts may result in reduced damage to
crops.
While the exploitation of opportunities is a vital part of encouraging the sustainable growth of the agriculture and forest sector, this section will focus on the potential climatic risks and challenges.
The National Risk Assessment (Department of the Taoiseach, 2014) identified Food Safety and Climate Change & Adverse Weather Events as two environmental risks facing Ireland. It states that projected changes to the Irish climate could “have significant impacts on agricultural production through the inducement of drought conditions, alterations on seasonal and harvesting patterns and changes in biodiversity.”
In his 2013 paper, Flood has estimated that projected impacts could result in total economic costs to the agriculture sector in the region of €1-2billion per annum by mid-century. This section outlines some of the projected changes to climatic drivers and also potential climatic risks and challenges facing the areas of livestock, crops and forest.
4.1 PROJECTED CHANGES TO CLIMATIC DRIVERS
The vulnerability analysis mentioned earlier highlighted a number of climatic drivers which could result in high or medium priority impacts for the agriculture and forest sector into the future. This section discusses some of those climatic drivers, and their projected changes, based on analysis of the impacts of global climate change on the mid-21st century climate of Ireland (Nolan, 2015).
Nolan (2015) employed the method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The Regional Climate Modelling simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981–2000 and future
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period 2041–2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed.
Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, A2) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. The RCP4.5 and B1 scenario simulations were used to create a 'medium-to-low emission' ensemble while the RCP8.5, A1B and A2 simulations were used to create a 'high emission' ensemble. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections were partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions.
4.1.1 PRECIPITATION
Nolan (2015) assessed the impact of climate change on heavy rainfall events by analysing projected changes in “wet days” and “very wet days”. A wet day is defined as one on which the daily precipitation amount is greater than 20mm. A very wet day is defined as one on which the daily precipitation is greater than 30mm. Results show heavy rainfall events are likely to increase by over 18% during the winter and autumn months for the period 2041-2060.
The analysis of Nolan (2015) shows a likely increase, under the high-emission scenario, in the number of annual (mean value 24%), autumn (mean value 49%) and winter (mean value 30%) very wet days by mid-century. Also under the high-emission scenario there is a likely increase in the number of wet days for the winter (mean value 24%) and autumn (mean value 18%) months. Figure 7 presents the likely increase in the number of annual and autumn very wet days for the high emissions scenario. In each case the future period 2041-2060 is compared with the past period 1981–2000.
Figure 7: Likely Increase in the Number of Annual & Autumn Very Wet Days in the High Emissions Scenario
As per the flooding of winter of 2015/2016, where much of the damage was localised, precipitation and large precipitation events do not affect all areas of the country equally which results in a spatial aspect to weather events. It is projected that this spatial aspect of weather events will continue and so will the localisation of issues arising from the geographical spread of the extreme precipitation events. However, Nolan (2015) states that when compared to temperature projections, there is less confidence in future projections of rainfall which is reflected in a large spread of projections, particularly at regional level.
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4.1.2 STORMS, HIGH WINDS & STORM SURGE
Nolan (2015) projects that there will be an annual reduction in the energy content of the wind of between three and seven per cent, however, the projections indicate that there will be increases in extreme wind speeds of between three and four per cent over Ireland by mid-century.
Projections also indicate that the tracks of intense storms are projected to extend further south over Ireland. An increase in intense storms affecting Ireland by mid – century is projected; however, the overall number of cyclones is projected to decrease. Figure 8 presents past (1981-2000) and projected (2041-2060) extreme storm tracks, as simulated by the high-emission ensemble of RCMs.
Figure 8: Past (1981 – 2000) & Future (2041-2060) Tracks of Storms with MLSP less than 940hPa & at Least 12 Hours Lifetime
4.1.3 MEAN TEMPERATURE
Nolan (2015) projects an upward shift in temperature relative to the period 1981 – 2000 across all seasons. The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1 – 1.3˚C and 1.2 - 1.6˚C Celsius for the medium-to-low emission scenario and the high-emission scenario, respectively. The warming is greatest in the east.
4.1.4 HEAT WAVES/DROUGHT
The warmest five per cent of daily maximum summer temperatures are expected to increase. A sustained increase in the daily maximum temperature is associated with heat waves. Warming is greater in the south than the north.
The projected warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5 per cent of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7–2.6 degrees Celsius by mid-century (Nolan, 2015). Warming is greater in the south than the north. A sustained increase in the daily maximum temperature is associated with heat waves.
4.1.5 PHENOLOGY
(a) Past storm tracks, 1981–2000, MSLP < 940 hPa, RCM 18-km resolution
(b) RCP8.5 storm tracks, 2041–2060, MSLP < 940 hPa, RCM 18-km resolution
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A large increase is projected in the average length of the growing season over Ireland by mid-century. When this is averaged over the country, the medium-to-low emission and high emission scenarios project an increase in the growing season of 35 and 40 days per year, respectively. However, it is worth noting that in some parts of the country, the limitation to the increase in the number of growing days is because the conditions in these areas approach a potential all-year growth (Nolan, 2015).
4.1.6 WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
When strong winds are combined with increased levels of precipitation, soils may become waterlogged, thus compounding the threat of wind damage. The occurrence of such conditions is expected to increase by mid-century (2041-2060) with a projected increase in heavy rainfall events and extreme wind speeds. .
4.2 POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE AGRICULTURE & FOREST SECTOR
The following sections highlight areas that were deemed to have high or medium impacts should the climatic drivers change as projected.
4.2.1 LIVESTOCK SECTOR
During the vulnerability assessment the predictions of increases in extreme precipitation, extreme wind speeds, intense storms and storm surges were highlighted as potentially having a high impact on the livestock sector. It was reasoned that changes to these climate parameters could lead to:
• Increased compliance difficulties with the EU Nitrates Directive especially regarding slurry storage and land spreading.
• Infrastructure damage and the associated reparatory costs could also increase.
• The level of surface run-off of nutrients may possibly intensify.
Medium priority impacts were also considered during the vulnerability assessment. The majority of these impacts currently occur or have occurred due to weather and weather events. However, should projected changes to weather variables and weather events occur then it is envisaged that the impacts will continue to be felt or could increase. Listed below are a number of these impacts.
4.2.1.1 Animal Health
The introduction, establishment and spread of vector-borne animal diseases represent a significant risk to Ireland; especially as such a high proportion of output is devoted to animal products. Vector-borne diseases rely upon organisms such as mosquitoes, midges, ticks or sandflies that have an active role in the transmission of a pathogen from one host to the other. Vectors can be introduced to new geographic areas for example by travel of humans and international trade, animal movement, migratory birds, changing agricultural practices, or by the wind. Further information is provided on recent cases involving the viruses – Bluetongue, Schmallenberg and Lumpy Skin Disease.
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The climate can play an important role in the lifecycle of diseases and pests that affect livestock, e.g. liverfluke or the introduction of new ‘exotic’ disease not currently found in Ireland. Susceptibility to disease may increase with the alteration of environmental stresses associated with changing climate patterns. Each year, DAFM advises farmers in relation to the predicted risk of disease caused by liver fluke infection in livestock based on advice received from the Liver Fluke Advisory Group.
DAFM also prepares an annual feed inspection and sampling plan which is heavily influenced by the assessment of risk factors that may impact on animal feed safety. It is possible that as temperatures and rainfall increases, the level of mycotoxins occurring in cereal grains could rise. This would impact on cereals both home-grown and imported from Europe.
The Bluetongue Virus (BTV)
BTV is an infectious, non-contagious, arthropod borne disease affecting ruminants which is transmitted amongst vertebrate hosts by certain species of Culicoides midges (Mellor et al, 2000). BTV occurs widely throughout the warmer regions of the world (OIE, 2016). Weather patterns can be critical at several points in the lifecycle of midges and infected midges can be transported by prevailing winds when certain climatic and vector factors are conducive. DAFM commissioned a three-year vector monitoring programme to determine seasonal vector activity. This was carried out in conjunction with National University Ireland, Galway from 2007 to 2010. DAFM regularly updates its contingency arrangements and plans to deal with a potential outbreak and continues to monitor developments. DAFM also carried out a risk assessment on the introduction and spread of BTV in Ireland. Information on the disease is published on the DAFM website.
The Schmallenberg Virus (SBV)
SBV affects ruminant animals and was first detected in Ireland in October 2012. It is primarily spread by biting insects, such as the Culicoides midge. It was expected that once the virus was detected here, it would spread rapidly. The warm and mostly dry conditions of summer 2013 were conducive to the spread of SBV. However, SBV did not spread, possibly due to the low temperatures of winter 2012 which may have reduced the number of midges. DAFM regional veterinary laboratories, in conjunction with Sheep Ireland, district veterinary offices and a number of private veterinary practitioners, targeted sheep flocks which were blood sampled and tested for the presence of antibodies at six weekly intervals over the summer of 2013. Regular advice and technical updates were provided by DAFM.
Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD)
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a viral disease of cattle caused by a pox virus. It causes fever, nodules on the skin and may result in severe losses. LSD does not affect humans. It is believed to be primarily transmitted by biting and blood feeding insects as well as other arthropods. From 1929 when the disease was first recorded, until 1989, LSD was confined to Sub-Saharan Africa. In subsequent years, multiple countries in the Middle-East have reported LSD. Turkey has been reporting LSD outbreaks since 2013, and the disease spread from here to Azerbaijan (2014) and Greece (2015). Since then LSD has spread steadily through several Balkan countries during 2016. DAFM is monitoring developments and updating contingency arrangements accordingly.
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4.2.1.2 Increased Grazing Season
Irelands comparative advantage in milk and beef production is largely based on efficient production and utilisation of grass. The duration of the grazing season is a key aspect of increasing grass production and utilisation. A Teagasc study (Teagasc, 2010) has projected increases in grass yield ranging from a maximum (+56 per cent) in the south east region to a minimum (+49 per cent) in the south west region. It also predicts an increase in field time availability, especially during summer when grass is conserved. The availability of grassland for grazing also increases under the growth models in all regions except the Border region where grazing period remained the same under climate change projections. In addition, with the emphasis on extended grazing, there is a need to have adequate supplies of conserved forage on farm to deal with periods of drought and waterlogging
4.2.1.3 Increased Moisture in Soil
Increased winter precipitation and increased extreme precipitation events are considered to have several consequences for soils including localised risk of decreased trafficability by machinery and increased poaching231. There could also be risks of floods, soil compaction, erosion and run off of nutrients and pesticides. Issues may be posed by increases in winter high river flows, difficult harvesting conditions and reduced harvesting windows.
Farms with heavy soils face additional challenges to managing increased soil moisture levels. The poor infiltration capacity of these soils leads to difficulties with the production and utilisation of grass, soil fertility and conservation of forage.
A flexible approach to grassland management will be required due to increased soil moisture levels, as grass production and forage conservation are influenced by changing seasonal patterns of weather. Wet weather can result in potentially limited/poorly conserved or damaged silage and grass utilisation which can result in localised fodder shortages.
During periods of weather unsuitable for grass growth, the need for supplementary feeding may be greater because of poor pasture growth or an inability to utilise the pasture due to poor soil conditions. The latter will also affect the grazing quality of the sward which will carry through the grazing season.
4.2.1.4 Health and Safety Issues
Increased health and safety issues for livestock and farmers are also considered, especially in the event of extreme weather. In some instances temporary or urgent movement of livestock is required in dangerous conditions. Extreme events can also increase stress to livestock.
4.2.1.5 Reduced Moisture in Soil
Potential medium priority issues have been recognised in relation to drought including; increased water stress, revision to grazing protocols and increased meal/silage requirements (Holden et al. 2004). Drier summers and expanding herd populations, particularly in the dairy sector, will place
231 The compaction and destruction of soil structure.
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additional demands on existing water supplies for agriculture, heightening competition for water resources.
4.2.2 CROP PRODUCTION SECTOR
Increases in extreme precipitation, extreme wind speeds, intense storms and storm surges were highlighted as potentially having a medium impact on the crop production sector. Also the increasing growing season and the projected increase in heat waves and drought were envisaged as having a possible medium level impact.
It was reasoned during the vulnerability assessment that projected changes to these climate parameters could lead to the following impacts on the production of crops.
4.2.2.1 Increased growing season
The extension to the growing season could result in an earlier harvest and give rise to the need for or possibility of using different varieties within a crop species. A 2013 Teagasc conference on weather and farming outlined that cereal production would be affected substantially by a changing climate. Yields were estimated to reduce significantly, with winter wheat decreasing up to 11 per cent in the south east region and spring barley yields decreasing by up to 10 per cent in both the east and south east regions. However, an analysis of projected maize silage yields estimates an increase in yields in all regions with the highest increase (+98 per cent) projected in the border regions (Teagasc, 2010).
4.2.2.2 Increased Moisture in Soil
Increased winter precipitation and increased extreme precipitation events are expected to have several consequences for soils including localised risk of decreased trafficability by machinery and impacts on the timing of field operations. Delayed harvesting could cause damage to crops and in some cases, cereal crops may need to be re-established. In the spring, poor field conditions at sowing can delay crop establishment, which can in turn delay leaf expansion, resulting in limitations to the volume of light available to the plant during the summer. There could also be risks of floods, soil compaction, erosion and nutrient and pesticide runoff. Increased moisture may also lead to an increase in wet weather fungal diseases with associated need for fungicide treatment.
4.2.2.3 Reduced Moisture in Soil
Potential medium priority issues have also been recognised in relation to reduced soil moisture levels, heat waves and drought, including increased requirements for water storage, water collection, nutrient recycling systems and irrigation. There may also be increased demands for high capacity climate control systems for crops grown under protective structures, e.g. polytunnels, to avoid stress to plants/crops. Ultimately, yield may be reduced if adequate ventilation or climate control is not maintained under protective structures. Where protective structures are not in use there is also the potential for accelerated exposure of groundwater to pesticides if dry conditions lead to cracked soil and pesticides are subsequently applied on such areas. Restricted chemical fertiliser application and reduced fertiliser efficiency are also potential outcomes.
4.2.2.4 Infrastructure & Crop Damage
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Storms, high winds or storm surges can cause structural damage to protective horticultural structures. Likewise, physical or weather damage to field sown crops can also occur, such as cereal lodging. Submergence of cereal crops may result in a requirement for re-sowing.
4.2.3 FOREST SECTOR
A sustainable forest sector is required to maintain forest production and processing and to sustain the direct and indirect contributions of forestry to society and the wider economy. Due to the relatively long life-span of the forest cycle, climate change is expected to have significant impacts on forest productivity and forest ecosystems, which may challenge the development and enhancement of a sustainable forest sector.
CLIMADAPT and Ecological Site Classification (ESC) climate impact analyses on the forest sector suggest that the predicted warmer and drier climate may offer the possibility of extending the range of tree species planted in Ireland. However, the increased mean moisture deficit could severely affect the suitability of a number of species on drier, well-drained or shallow soils.
Wood quality may also be affected by climate change. Faster growth rates resulting from increased temperatures may lead to some reduction in wood quality in Sitka Spruce, though the principal strength properties are more influenced by spacing and thinning. The wood quality of pines, larches and Douglas fir is unlikely to decrease due to faster growth rates. Wood quality of broadleaf species varies in response to increased growth in a warmer climate: ring porous species such as ash, elm and oak, produce harder and stronger wood when they grow at a faster rate, while diffuse porous species such as birch and sycamore do not respond in this way.
There is a risk of introduction of new diseases or pests with new species more suitable to the changed climate. Also it is possible that there would be more adverse responses to pest and diseases as trees are subjected to climatic stress, such as drought and increased temperature. Therefore, the severity of pest and disease outbreaks is likely to increase.
It is likely that the increased occurrence and magnitude of storm events would increase the risk of windthrow. The location of some forest plantations on exposed, windy sites with poor drainage renders them vulnerable to wind damage. One of the indirect effects of large windthrow events is a likely short-term decrease in round wood prices. Large disturbance events may also influence forest age class structure and overall productivity. Higher temperatures and moisture deficits are also likely to increase the risk of forest fires.
4.2.4 OTHER
Met Éireann (2013) has predicted that temperatures, especially in summer and winter, are set to increase which could influence the number of forest fires. Currently, the Forest Service issues risk warning circulars and Met Éireann includes fire warnings as part of its Agricultural Service. While both of these systems operate as warnings of possible fires, they do not advise the emergency services of actual outbreaks. A number of European countries that regularly experience forest fires employ automated digital remote surveillance systems to alert the emergency services of fire outbreaks. The time between the fire outbreak and the emergency response is consequently reduced.
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Forecasted increases in mean summer temperatures, the number of heat waves and drought and the number of winter storms could result in increased health and safety issues.
Projected escalations in the intensity of storm events could result in increased physical and mental stresses for farmers and foresters as they manage immediate health and safety concerns as well as the aftermath of these events which can include emotional and financial hardships.
Infrastructural damage to farms and dwellings as well as access and transportation difficulties could also become more prevalent if the intensity of storms increases as projected.
4.3 POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON SECTORAL AIMS & OBJECTIVES
The Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act of 2015 provides a statutory framework to initiate a transition to a low-carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy. While the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment (DCCAE) is the lead Department in relation to climate change matters, there is a whole of Government approach to developing policy relating to climate change issues. Specifically, the long-term policy vision is for an approach to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land use sector including forestry which does not compromise the capacity for sustainable food production.
In terms of the DAFM specifically, the mission of the Department is: “Serving the government and people of Ireland by leading, developing and regulating the agri-food sector, protecting public health and optimising social, economic and environmental.”
The strategic goals of DAFM as per the current Statement of Strategy 2016-2019 (DAFM, 2016 are to:
(i) To promote and safeguard public, animal and plant health and animal welfare for the benefit of consumers producers and wider society
(ii) Provide income and market supports to underpin the rural economy and the environment
(iii) Provide the optimum policy framework for the sustainable development of the agri-food sector
(iv) Deliver a sustainable, growth driven sector focused on competitiveness and innovation driven by a skilled workforce delivering value added products in line with market demands
(v) Maintain and develop strategic, operational, regulatory and technical capacity to achieve operational excellence
In order to fulfil these goals DAFM must bear in mind the potential changes to the climate in which the agriculture and forest sector operates.
4.3.1 AGRICULTURE SECTOR
Food Wise 2025 sets out ambitions for the Irish agri-food sector for further growth, over a ten year period. The strategy builds on the smart green growth path begun under Food Harvest 2020 and maintains the sector’s commitment to achieving substantial growth, but doing so in a sustainable way.
While not setting out individual quantitative targets for the sectors, Food Wise 2025 identifies significant growth opportunities across all subsectors of the Irish agri-food industry. It projects that
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exports have the potential to grow to €19billion per annum in value by 2025, which is an 85 per cent increase from the current three-year average.
Vulnerabilities to the current climate must be included in strategic plans to increase the overall resilience of the agriculture sector in the long term.
4.3.2 FOREST SECTOR
The strategic goal of the forest sector in Ireland is “to develop an internationally competitive and sustainable forest sector that provides a full range of economic, environmental and social benefits to society and which accords with the Forest Europe definition of sustainable forest management” (DAFM 2014a). Afforestation is a major GHG mitigation measure being taken on agricultural land. Between 1990 and 2030 €3.5billion will be invested in afforestation. However, large windthrow events and the subsequent economic and physical impacts could affect the burgeoning forest management culture in Ireland.
The 2008 Malone report, Factors Affecting Afforestation in Ireland in Recent Years, highlighted the absence of any discernible forest management culture. At that time this was linked to the grant driven activity of the sector and the historically relatively low level of forestry. While efforts have since been made to remedy this situation, the national forest estate remains quite young. Average tree age is just 20 years and over half (56 per cent) of the stocked forest estate is less than 20 years of age. The private forest estate has a younger age profile compared to the public estate, with 67 per cent aged 20 years or less (DAFM, 2013).
The experience of ill prepared or relatively new forest owners during large windthrow events could result in the resurgence of the negative attitude to forestry land use noted by Malone (2008).
Large windthrow events could also result in the temporary derailing of the management of long term goals for the sector as resources are used to manage immediate, high priority issues. For example, applications for felling licenses required as a result of storm damage were prioritised following the 2013/2014 windthrow event.
4.3.3 OTHER
Wildfires can damage or cause disruption across many national and sectoral policy areas, for example; Environmental in areas of natural interest or cultural heritage, Social in relation to commercial, residential and leisure facilities such as facilities under the NeighbourWood Scheme, Economic regarding farms, forests and industrial production sites and to Infrastructure especially transport links, energy and communication utilities.
As previously stated, wildfires can cause loss of life, not only directly but also indirectly due to the large scale relocation of emergency service personnel away from urban areas. Wildfires can also cause financial costs to local authorities and may require redirection of budgets and personnel from strategic operations.
Wildfires not only delay afforestation rates, thereby impacting on climate change mitigation goals, but can also cause further environmental damage by affecting air quality. Emissions from forest fires
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can travel large distances from the source. Increased emissions could reduce the impact of mitigation steps taken towards reaching air quality targets.
The Farm Safety Action Plan (2013-2015) has been developed with the Farm Safety Partnership Advisory Committee, (Health and Safety Authority, 2013) and sets out the goals and associated targets for improving occupational safety and health in agriculture. However, changing climatic conditions in which farmers and foresters operate could result in increased health and safety issues.
4.4 SUMMARY
It is clear from the vulnerability assessment that, in order to meet the objectives set out for the agriculture and forest sector, actions must be taken to increase resilience and target the current vulnerabilities. While a high level of uncertainty will remain in relation to climatic predictions and the interaction of non-climatic variables, adaptation decisions must be made now.
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5. CROSS SECTORAL IMPLICATIONS
This section sets out some of the interaction between the agriculture and forest sector and other areas where cross sectoral issues may arise for adaptation- it does not attempt to give a full overview of cross sectoral issues. It also gives an example of a historical cross sectoral issue which resulted in a large economic cost.
5.1 INTERACTION WITH OTHER SECTORS
The agriculture and forest sector is not an isolated, independent entity and therefore it is important that the interaction between the agriculture and forest sector and the other sectors is examined.
At a sectoral level, interaction on current and future adaptation planning will be required due to the following cross-sectoral areas. The DAFM will work with other Departments and Agencies on these cross-sectoral issues through the Department of Communications Climate Action and Environment led Sectoral Adaptation Committee. The list below is not exhaustive as further cross sectoral issues may be uncovered over time. It is acknowledged that the previously discussed areas of flood defence and health and safety have cross sectoral issues.
5.1.1 WATER
Resilience to reduced water availability may become an important adaptation action for some livestock farmers during summer periods of drought. While water is a key requirement for agriculture, agricultural activity at the same time may impact on the quantity and quality of the water supply. Increased precipitation and extreme precipitation events may also impact on water quality, as described earlier in this document. Not all areas of Ireland receive equal amounts of rainfall at present; the eastern half is generally drier than the west, this trend will continue. Therefore, too much water (flooding) and too little water (droughts) could be issues for different parts of the country.
5.1.2 EMERGENCY PLANNING
Under the lead agency principle, DAFM has contingency plans in place for a range of transboundary animal diseases and for animal feed and food safety. Depending on the disease or threat, this may include increased surveillance, awareness and training programmes, strategies and protocols to deal with suspicion and confirmation of disease, protocols for valuation and killing of animals, disposal of carcases and cleaning and disinfection of premises. An annual feed inspection and sampling plan is also in place. This plan is heavily influenced by the assessment of risk factors that may impact on feed safety.
5.1.3 BIODIVERSITY
Irish farmland is characterised by having a wide diversity of habitats such as hedgerows, field margins, ponds and streams, native woodland, bogs and species-rich meadows and pastures. Irish biodiversity therefore, depends on farmland habitats. The most important habitats are designated as protected areas and cover over ten per cent of the country:
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• Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) are areas designated for the protection of flora and fauna of European importance, e.g. the Burren.
• Special Protection Areas (SPAs) are areas designated for the protection of bird species of European importance, e.g. the Shannon Callows as a habitat for the Corncrake.
• Natural Heritage Areas (NHAs) is an area considered important for the habitats present or holds species of plants and animals whose habitat needs protection.
The network of habitats throughout the countryside provides connectivity for wildlife. Sensitively managed farmland can greatly benefit wildlife and help halt the decline of Ireland’s biodiversity (Teagasc, 2016e).
5.1.4 HERITAGE
In a paper presented at the Heritage Council 2009 Landscape Conference, Prof. G. Boyle of Teagasc stated, “agriculture always has and will continue to mould the landscape.” The paper notes the evidence of prehistoric farming in Co. Mayo and concludes that land use policies which shape our future landscape must ensure viable and sustainable farming systems (Boyle, 2009). For example, evidence of the interaction of heritage and agriculture can be seen through the Burren Life 2016-2020 scheme which builds on the success of past schemes located in the Burren area and seeks to conserve the unique heritage, environment and communities of the Burren. The ancient tradition of Irish farming also underlines the rich connection between the Irish culture and Irish food.
5.1.5 TRANSPORT
Agriculture and forestry rely on road, rail and port networks for the transportation of goods, animals and plants. For example in 2015, Irish agri-food and drink exports were worth approximately €10.8billion. The UK was the main destination accounting for 41 per cent of all exports. 31 per cent of exports went to continental EU markets while the remaining 28 per cent went to international markets (Bord Bia, 2016).
5.1.6 ENERGY
The agriculture and forest sector has a dual role in relation to energy as it is both a consumer and a supplier. In terms of supply, for example farms can include bioenergy feedstocks and the use of on-farm technologies to create renewable energy such as wind and solar farms. Farmers can also supply organic substrate as cattle and pig liquid manure, which can be used to produce biogas via anaerobic digestion. Changes to policy on renewable energy can directly influence the agriculture and forest sector.
5.1.7 COMMUNICATIONS
The agriculture and forest sector is continually embracing technological advances, for example Teagasc SMART Agriculture distils a wide variety of data sources into usable information for farmers. Access to high speed broadband allows for the development of on-farm Information and communications technology (ICT) solutions enabling better and faster decision making. It also makes it easier for farmers to interact with DAFM, customers and suppliers.
5.1.8 HEALTH
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There are many cross – sectoral implications between the agriculture and forest sector and health. These include issues around the health and safety implication of the population of the agriculture and forest sector as explored previously. The mental health of farmers, foresters and of their families, generally, and during and following extreme events is also an important cross sectoral consideration.
Farmers, foresters and their families face increased risks of sun burn and dehydration while working outdoors. Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can be harmful from April to September, from 11 am in the morning until 3 pm in the afternoon. UVR can be present on both sunny as well as cloudy days. Also, some chemicals that are used on the farm, such as creosote, can make skin more sensitive to UV rays, if used incorrectly.
However, other cross over points include the implications of agriculture and forest sector on the health of the general population such as, the impacts of biological contamination of drinking and recreational water, the air quality effects of wood burning and forest fires and the potential communication of zoonotic diseases. There are also potentially positive interactions between the agriculture and forest sector and health such as, the role that trees can play in lowering air pollutants and increased activity levels through the provision of amenity areas such as those supports under the NeighbourWood Scheme.
5.2 CASE STUDY OF CROSS SECTORAL ISSUES
A historical example of cross sectoral issues is a useful illustration tool. While agriculture, namely the livestock sector, was the centre of the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak, ultimately this is not where the largest economic impact was felt.
While this disease outbreak in Ireland was not attributable to weather or weather events, some of the transmissions in the United Kingdom (UK) were found to be consistent with airborne disease spread (Mikkelsen et al, 2003). Garner et al (1995) found that under favourable climatic conditions wind-borne spread can be an important factor in FMD epidemics.
The impacts of the 2001 outbreak were far reaching for the Irish economy. A DAFM report from Indecon International Economic Consultants after the outbreak indicated that the cost to the Irish economy at that time was estimated to be 0.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) or €210million. This can be broken down as follows:
Table 2: Cost of the FMD Outbreak to the Irish Economy
Estimated Gains and (Losses) € Million
Agriculture 107
Tourism and other Sectors (210)
Exchequer Costs (107)
Total (210)
As Table 2 above indicates, the agriculture sector, although directly affected, was the only area to record a gain as a result of the outbreak.
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The report indicated that some of the direct effects to the livestock sector included the closure of marts and the ban on the movement of susceptible animals which led to an increase in on-farm costs. Further to this, Ireland was banned from exporting to markets outside the EU and farms in Louth were also banned from exporting to the EU. As Louth was the main focus of the outbreak, the culling of animals in that area was extensive. This represented an economic loss to the exchequer as a compensation scheme was established.
However, as the FMD outbreak also affected other states, there was an impact internationally on output and prices, namely in the UK, Netherlands and France. The UK was subjected to a greater amount of culling of animals and a widespread ban on exports to the EU. This provided an opportunity for Irish exporters to increase exports to the UK and other EU member states at higher prices to fill the gap caused by the UK export ban.
The report on the outbreak concludes that Irish agriculture benefited marginally due to the FMD-related reduction in UK output. It is estimated that export values were higher by about €63million. These higher values would also have second-round effects for other sectors. These second round effects are estimated to add a further €44million to the overall benefit to the agriculture sector.
Other sectors of the economy did not fare as well. In the tourism sector, the economic effects of FMD included direct and indirect income loss due to the decline in overseas visitors; income effects arising from changes in domestic tourism patterns and other domestic effects. Also the exchequer, excluding agriculture, was subject to costs in relation to the introduction of the various restrictions; overtime and work forgone; tourism promotion and reduced tax intake.
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6. ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR THE AGRICULTURE & FOREST SECTOR
Section Two outlined the climate vulnerabilities within the agriculture and forest sector while Section Three set out the future risks and challenges. An exercise was undertaken to review the adaptation options which had previously been used by DAFM to address these climate vulnerabilities; this method, which recognised options used during recent risks and challenges, allowed the identification of potential future adaptation options.
The existing adaptation options and coping measures were categorised into those which Build Adaptive Capacity or Deliver Adaption Actions. Building Adaptive Capacity involves developing the capacity to respond to climate change and includes activities such as gathering and sharing information, raising awareness or creating supportive structures. Delivering Adaption Actions involves taking practical actions to reduce vulnerability to climate risks or take advantage of climate opportunities.
An examination of the type of adaptation options and coping measures that are currently in place was also undertaken. For example, grey adaptation options typically involve technical or engineering solutions to climate impacts. Green options seek to utilise ecological properties to enhance the resilience of human and natural systems to climate change and impacts. Soft adaptation options involve the alteration of behaviour, regulations or systems of management.
Some of the adaptation options that are currently in place or are in the research stages are outlined in Section 6.1.
6.1 STEPS TOWARDS BUILDING RESILIENCE
6.1.1 LIVESTOCK
The fodder crisis highlighted the need for grass growth decision support tools and early warning systems. Pasture Base Ireland (PBI) is a grassland management decision support tool which captures and records grass growth measurements and agronomic data and links grass growth to local meteorological data. The aim of PBI is to provide farmers with information to address underperforming areas and increase grazed grass utilisation. As the PBI database matures, it has the potential to develop grass growth forecasts which may ensure maximisation of available forage during periods of climate vulnerability, thus developing resilience.
New tools to estimate grass growth in Ireland using satellite imaging are being developed by the Spatial Analysis Laboratory in Teagasc, with partners in the Department of Geography, University College Cork. Satellites observe grass growing across the country and combine observations with the grass growth models (e.g. PastureBase Ireland) and local meteorological forecasts. This information can be used to predict how grass will grow across the country at land parcel scale for days or weeks ahead. By monitoring grass growth trends the status of the national crop can be established. This, in turn, will help create early warning systems for future fodder crises by, for example, predicting poor autumn grass growth rates or forecasting a late spring.
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Rates of carbon sequestration are tightly linked to plant growth and hence to climate. Therefore, future climate change could impact on plant growth and carbon sequestration as well as GHG emissions. The National University of Ireland (NUI) Maynooth, Teagasc and Aberdeen University are investigating the impacts of future climate change on grass and crop growth, carbon sequestration and GHG/nitrate losses. Previous studies have shown that under scenarios of extreme weather events, forest and grassland sequestration can be reduced by over 10 per cent in the absence of appropriate management strategies (DAFM, 2015a).
In terms of animal health and welfare, DAFM is active on a number of fronts including the coordination of animal disease surveillance in Ireland and the development of contingency plans to ensure our continued national preparedness. The Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine Laboratory Divisions also work closely with Northern Irish counterparts and other laboratory service providers to produce baseline data on disease patterns in food producing animals on an all-island basis. The Department provides financial support to the UCD Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA). The unit works to support DAFM policy, inspectorate and laboratory staff in the area of animal health and provides epidemiological support for a broad range of animal health issues relating to the emergence of animal diseases and preparedness (e.g. Bluetongue). Animal Health Ireland (AHI) representing a public/private partnership arrangement between DAFM and industry works with stakeholders to address certain endemic diseases (e.g. BVD) which impact negatively on the health of the national herd - reduced productivity and increased susceptibility to other stressors.
The Beef Data and Genomics Programme has been designed to help reduce GHG emissions in the beef sector by increasing herd quality and efficiency. However, through genetic improvements, the programme will generate a range of additional climatic benefits such as the production of more efficient cattle better suited to the changing climate.
6.1.2 CROP PRODUCTION
The grain aphid, Sitobion avenae, causes yield reductions in spring barley crops through feeding and transmission of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV). To date, control of Sitobion avenae has been dependent on the application of insecticides. However, the effectiveness of these control measures may be reduced in the future through the emergence of chemical resistance. Also, the transposition of plant protection regulations in Irish law could potentially revise the manner in which pests are controlled. In addition, the potential warming of the Irish climate has compounded the challenge to control aphids. In response, Teagasc, in partnership with NUI Maynooth, is developing early warning systems to detect aphid activity in spring barley crops. As temperature directly impacts on the rate of development in insects, the work will also aim to establish how aphid population profiles will change in response to future projected temperature regimes.
Early warning systems for crops disease outbreaks have been developed in the past to support the farmers with the implementation of timely crop disease control measures. A well known example is the blight warning system provided by Met Éireann. Potato blight is caused by the fungal pathogen Phytophthora infestans. The development and spread of late blight is very dependent on temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. The early warning system predicts upcoming spells of weather that are conducive to the spread of potato blight. When blight warnings are issued, it is critical that potato growers are informed to take action. Only spraying when blight warnings are issued will reduce the number of sprays required to control the disease, leading to positive
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environmental benefits and saving on input costs to the grower. The blight warning system is delivered through a range of services such as online, email and fax.
The Sustainable Use Directive (SI 155/2012) advocates the use of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) as a strategy to promote the sustainable management of plant production products (PPPs) in a way that minimises the adverse effects of PPP application on the environment and on human health. Integrated Pest Management contains a number of general principles designed to help PPP users to reduce both their reliance on PPPs and the risks associated with such use. Fundamental to these general principles is the monitoring of the presence of pests and diseases through the use of early warning/forecasting systems and weather forecasts to aid decisions. These techniques will improve the timing and effectiveness of PPP application where the window of opportunity for control of pests and diseases may be restricted under future climatic conditions. The Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine Value for Cultivation and Use trials make recommendations on the most suitable varieties for growing in Ireland in a comprehensive trialling system for 3 years prior to recommendation. This evaluation system has the potential to identify varieties that have resistance to new fungal disease and pest pressures once varieties on trial are exposed to those pressures.
6.1.3 FOREST SECTOR
University College Dublin, Coillte, the National Botanic Gardens and Teagasc contribute to the FORGEN programme. The main focus of this research programme is to develop methods that will accelerate the delivery of improved forest/wood material in Ireland, while at the same time protecting valuable genetic resources from threats, including climate change (www.forgen.ie). The programme focuses on three main areas: (i) provenance selection, (ii) breeding and propagation and (iii) climate change, genetic resources and support tools.
The European Forest Genetic Resources Programme (EUFORGEN) has been facilitating international collaboration on forest genetic resources for over 20 years. It continues to guide best adaptation practice and provide updates to the EUFGIS (European Information System on Forest Genetic Resources) database to enable Ireland be part of pan-European forest genetic resources conservation.
Research into increasing pest resistance in genotypes has also taken place. Breeding programmes in Canada, for example, have produced populations of Sitka spruce more resistant to white pine weevil (King and Alfaro 2009). Studies on genetic variation in susceptibility to great pine weevil (Zas et al. 2005) suggest similar approaches could be adopted for major pests in Ireland.
It is clearly noted in the forest policy (DAFM 2014a) that “the European Forest Institute predict that climate change will result in increased frequency of storms, drought occurrences and insect and pathogen outbreaks in forests across Europe and advocates that forest policies support adaptive forest management to combat these threats.” In order to do so CLIMADAPT, which is a tool to aid species selection, has been developed under the National Forestry Research Programme. CLIMADAPT will aid in guiding species choice and related management decisions. As well as species selection there are also a number of general forest management techniques which can be employed to reduce the risk of wind damage, such as drainage, cultivation and thinning.
6.2 FUTURE ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN THE AGRICULTURE & FOREST SECTOR
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The objective of this document is to outline a joined up approach to adaptation within the agriculture and forest sector. In order to ensure that this approach is implemented across all areas, DAFM will adopt the following policy in relation to assessing and providing for the potential impacts of climate change for the agriculture and forest sector:
All policies, strategies, plans and measures for, or related to, agriculture and forest must be informed of the need to adapt to the potential impacts of climate change.
While a number of the options in Table 3 are specific to areas within the agriculture and forest sector, the majority can be used throughout the sector to combat potential vulnerabilities and establish resilience.
A timeframe of ongoing or short, medium and long term has also been identified for each of the adaptation options. The stakeholders responsible for the implementation of the adaptation options are also listed.
Existing and new research are critical components to inform adaptation plans to climate change within the sector. The Department’s Research Programmes have a significant role to play in identifying possible threats to the sector due to climate change and providing solutions through research ensuring stability of production and identifying possible areas of expansion. The EU Framework Programmes for research and innovation can also play a significant role in providing possibilities for providing solutions through research and innovation undertaken but also through the introduction of new concepts such as the bioeconomy and the circular economy that can act as drivers for increasing sustainability and resilience in the agri-food supply chain.
46
Table 3: Adaptation Options for the Agriculture and Forest Sector
Adaptation Options Timeframe Responsibility
National Actions
Keep under review and update the agriculture and forest sectoral adaptation plan in the context of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015.
Short - Medium Term
DAFM
Ensure adaptation requirements are considered during the establishment of sectoral policies, strategies, plans and measures.
Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM
Implementation of relevant legislation and other statutory and control instruments.
Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM
Interagency
Interdepartmental and interagency interaction in relation to adaptation, environmental policy development and monitoring.
Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM and relevant Departments and Agencies
Interaction with Met Éireann. Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM
Met Éireann
Teagasc
Active participation with the Office of Emergency Planning. Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM
Office of Emergency Planning
Actively participate in and support the work of the Health and Safety Authority on farm safety especially within various climatic situations.
Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM
Health and Safety Authority
Teagasc
Representative Organisations
Knowledge Transfer and Communication
Regular communication to stakeholders including via the knowledge transfer network and advice provision system at local, national and interagency levels.
Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM
Teagasc
Representative Organisations
Continue to participate in national, international fora and initiatives in agri-food and forest so as to share experiences and best practices.
Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM
Research
Sustained monitoring of research results and dissemination of results to relevant parties.
Ongoing DAFM
47
Adaptation Options Timeframe Responsibility
Encourage policy creation which takes advantage of technological advances in adaptation.
Short - Medium Term
DAFM
Monitor adaptation options in place in other countries to extract knowledge which can be implemented within the Irish context.
Medium Term
DAFM
Consider the appropriateness of the introduction of new plant, crop, tree and livestock varieties which are more resilient to the changing climate.
Medium – Long Term
DAFM
Encourage research into the effects of climate change and adaptation measures through programmes informed by relevant strategic research agendas at national level such as SHARP and at international level, the FACCE-JPI.
Short - Medium Term
DAFM
Research and implement methods to monitor, review and evaluate the adaptation options put in place.
Long Term DAFM
Land Management
Encourage Locally Led Agri-Environment and Climate Schemes (LLAEC) such as The Burren Farming for Conservation Programme.
Short Term DAFM
Continue research on, and promotion of, better land management in light of projected climatic changes.
Short Term DAFM
Continue with pest and disease surveillance, monitoring and research. Commence a weed surveillance and monitoring programme.
Short Term DAFM
Research and promote improved water and irrigation management in light of projected climatic changes.
Medium Term
DAFM
Promote the use of forest decision support systems to support adaptive forest management.
Short Term DAFM
Implementation of Forest Protection and Health measures. Short Term DAFM
Implementation of risk assessment and risk warning systems in relation to uncontrolled wild fires.
Short Term DAFM
Implementation of Sustainable Forest Management including training and advise on species selection, etc.
Short Term DAFM
Coillte
Continued implementation of the Pesticide Control Service. Short Term DAFM
Livestock Management
Implementation of animal identification and movement monitoring programmes.
Ongoing DAFM
48
Adaptation Options Timeframe Responsibility
Promote initiatives towards improved animal health. Ongoing DAFM
Animal Health Ireland
Representative Organisations
Continue livestock disease and pest surveillance, monitoring and research programmes.
Ongoing DAFM
Implementation of animal welfare codes of practice. Short Term/
Ongoing
DAFM
Representative Organisations
Implementation of feeding stuff controls. Ongoing DAFM
49
7. MONITORING, REVIEW & EVALUATION
As adaptation goals will be based on predictions, the steps towards achieving these goals will need to be continually monitored. The goals should allow for fluidity and flexibility to reflect the continually growing knowledge within the sphere of climate change modelling. Without a monitoring, review and evaluation process the pathways towards building resilience could result in maladaptation. Also, measuring progress towards the goals enables knowledge transfer and provides transparency to stakeholders.
However, monitoring and evaluating the effects of adaptation options is challenging due to the level of uncertainty associated with projections from climate change models and the fact that climate change takes place over a long time period. Unlike mitigation, adaptation to climate change cannot be measured by a single metric. Also, the implementation of adaptation options can often be at a local level, therefore, the identification of national metrics can be difficult.
While acknowledging these challenges but also recognising the necessity of a monitoring, review and evaluation process, the following progress indicators have been identified for the agriculture and forest sector:
✓ Monitor baseline data to review the current climate, the vulnerabilities within the sector and the potential pathways towards resilience.
✓ Mainstream adaptation within the work programmes of the agriculture and forest sector. This includes ensuring that adaptation is incorporated within the research agenda for the sector.
✓ Monitor and review the timely implementation of adaptation measures, including the financial outlay.
✓ Cooperate with other sectoral and transboundary adaptation plans, where appropriate.
✓ Update and review the agriculture and forest sectoral adaptation plan as required by the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015.
✓ Develop adaptation monitoring indicators with a view to including the work of the Environmental Protection Agency and other relevant bodies in this area.
50
8. CONCLUSION
This document has examined the impacts of climate change and weather related events, both past and projected, on a number of areas within the Irish agriculture and forest sector. As these changes continue and if, as predicted, increase over the coming decades, the agriculture and forest sector must prepare for and adapt to these new conditions. By identifying areas of vulnerability now, steps can be taken and measures put in place to avoid future adverse impacts within the sector and to exploit opportunities.
Ultimately, this document should be viewed as a first step towards reducing vulnerability and building resilience in the agriculture and forest sector.
i
List of Abbreviations
AA Appropriate Assessment
CAP Common Agricultural Policy
DAFM Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
DECLG Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government
ESC Ecological Site Classification
EU European Union
EUFGIS European Information System on Forest Genetic Resources
EUFORGEN European Forest Genetic Resources Programme
FORGEN Forest Genetic Resources Programme
GAEC Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GLAS Green Low Carbon Agri-environment Scheme
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NCCAF National Climate Change Adaptation Framework
PPM Parts Per Million
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
ii
Glossary232
Term Definition
Adaptation The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human
systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate
adjustment to expected climate and its effects.
Adaptation
Options
The array of strategies and measures that are available and appropriate for
addressing adaptation needs. They include a wide range of actions that can be
categorised as structural, institutional, or social.
Basal Sweep The curved stem at the base of the tree which results from wind disturbance during
the early years of growth.
Carbon
Dioxide (CO2)
A naturally occurring gas, also a by-product of burning fossil fuels from fossil carbon
deposits, such as oil, gas and coal, of burning biomass, of land use changes and of
industrial processes (e.g., cement production). It is the principal anthropogenic
greenhouse gas that affects the Earth’s radiative balance. It is the reference gas
against which other greenhouse gases are measured and has a Global Warming
Potential of 1.
Climate Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more
rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of
relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or
millions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as
defined by the World Meteorological Organisation. The relevant quantities are most
often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Climate in a
wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.
Climate
Change
A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
Climate
Model
A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and
biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes
and accounting for some of its known properties.
Climate
Prediction
A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce
(starting from a particular state of the climate system) an estimate of the actual
evolution of the climate in the future.
Climate
Projection
A climate projection is the simulated response of the climate system to a scenario of
future emission or concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, generally derived
using climate models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions
by their dependence on the emission/concentration/radiative-forcing scenario used,
which is in turn based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic
and technological developments that may or may not be realised.
232 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), WG2, Climate Change 2014, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
iii
Term Definition
Ecosystem A functional unit consisting of living organisms, their non-living environment and the
interactions within and between them. The components included in a given
ecosystem and its spatial boundaries depend on the purpose for which the ecosystem
is defined: in some cases they are relatively sharp, while in others they are diffuse.
Ecosystems are nested within other ecosystems and their scale can range from very
small to the entire biosphere.
Extreme
Weather
Event
An extreme weather event is an event that is rare at a particular place and time of
year. Definitions of rare vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as
rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile of a probability density function
estimated from observations. When a pattern of extreme weather persists for some
time, such as a season, it may be classed as an extreme climate event, especially if it
yields an average or total that is itself extreme (e.g., drought or heavy rainfall over a
season).
Flood The overflowing of the normal confines of a stream or other body of water, or the
accumulation of water over areas not normally submerged.
Greenhouse
Gas (GHG)
Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural
and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the
spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself
and clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon
dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary
greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, there are a number of
entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons
and other chlorine- and bromine-containing substances, dealt with under the
Montreal Protocol. Beside CO2, N2O and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the
greenhouse gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and
perfluorocarbons (PFCs).
Land Use and
Land Use
Change
(LULUCF)
Land use refers to the total of arrangements, activities and inputs undertaken in a
certain land cover type (a set of human actions). The term land use is also used in the
sense of the social and economic purposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing,
timber extraction and conservation). Land use change refers to a change in the use or
management of land by humans, which may lead to a change in land cover. Land
cover and land use change may have an impact on the surface albedo,
evapotranspiration, sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, or other properties of the
climate system and may thus give rise to radiative forcing and/or other impacts on
climate, locally or globally.
Mitigation
(of climate
change)
A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse
gases.
Resilience The capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous
event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their
essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for
adaptation, learning and transformation.
iv
Term Definition
Risk The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the
outcome is uncertain, recognising the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as
probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if
these events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability,
exposure and hazard.
Sustainable
Development
Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability
of future generations to meet their own needs.
United
Nations
Framework
Convention
on Climate
Change
(UNFCCC)
The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed at the 1992
Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by more than 150 countries and the European
Community. Its ultimate objective is the “stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” It contains commitments for all
Parties. The convention entered in force in March 1994. In 1997, the UNFCCC
adopted the Kyoto Protocol.
Vulnerability The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses
a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and
lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
Windthrow Damage caused when growing trees are blown down by wind.
v
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9
Appendix 1– List of Plans, Policies & Programmes
• Ambient Air Quality and Cleaner Air for Europe (CAFE) Directive
• Atlantic Way Strategy
• Common Agricultural Policy - Pillar I
• Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015
• Cross Compliance (SMRs, GAEC, AEOS etc)
• Draft Bioenergy Action Plan
• National Peatlands Strategy
• EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020
• EU Climate and Energy Package
• EU Circular Economy Package
• EU Bioeconomy Strategy
• EU Food 2030
• Food Wise 2025
• Green Low-Carbon Agri-Environment Scheme (GLAS)
• National Biodiversity Plan
• National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001/81/EC)
• National Landscape Strategy
• National Low Carbon Transition and Mitigation Plan
• National Spatial Strategy
• Our Sustainable Future
• Regional Planning Guidelines
• River Basin Management Plans
• Rural Development Plan 2014-2020 - Common Agricultural Policy – Pillar II
• Water Framework Directive (EC, 2000a)
10
Appendix 2 - Summary of themes arising from public consultation
Key Theme Response
Scope and remit of the Plan (relationship
with other plans and programmes, where
it fits into hierarchy of other plans)
Feedback noted. Greater clarity has
been provided on the scope of the plan.
Relevant guidelines were referred to
during the drafting of the plan and will,
along with any additional relevant
guidelines, be considered for future
iterations.
Observations of current climate impacts The most up to date information
available has been used - work is
ongoing in this area and this will be
taken account of in future iterations.
Climate impact and vulnerability screening
criteria including issues related to
flooding.
Cross-sectoral implications: food balance
and security in context of climate change,
heritage, use of anaerobic digester (AD)
plants and biomass , air quality and water
contamination, water management, bio-
economy.
Climate impact and vulnerability criteria
were considered and assigned in the
assessment. Risk assignment was based
on expert judgement based on their
economic, environmental and social
magnitude of impact.
• DAFM will continue to work with the Office of Public Works (OPW) in relation to flood and emergency planning. This has been considered and referenced in the report.
• Food balance and security in the context of climate change is outside the remit of the current document but will be retained for future iterations.
• Irish heritage has been included.
• The use of AD has been included. DAFM will continue to work with the Department of Communications, Climate Action (DCCAE) and Environment in the AD area. Consideration of opportunities for the use of agricultural and forest biomass is ongoing.
Cross-sectoral implications between
agriculture/forest and health (including
air quality and water contamination)
11
have been included. Input on water
management and working with other
Departments and Agencies are included.
A national bio-economy policy
statement is currently under
development.
Benefits of agro-forestry, biodiversity,
heritage
DAFM actively supports the
establishment of agro-forestry and the
research and development of agro-
forestry in Ireland and this is
acknowledged in the planning
document.
Biodiversity and heritage are referred to
in the planning document.
Comments relating to the adaptation
planning document itself
Feedback noted and changes made
where possible although a number of
the submissions raised issues beyond
the scope of this document but which
will be retained for use in future
iterations.
Comments relating to specific issues
Feedback noted and changes made
where possible although a number of
the submissions raised issues beyond
the scope of this document but which
will be retained for use in future
iterations.
Adaptation options and indicators The setting of adaptation priorities and
objectives will be taken account of when
developing indicators. When assessing
these indicators socio, economic and
environmental criteria will be
considered.
Integration of adaptation plans, economic
review, aims and objectives
Due to the diverse nature of the areas of
agriculture, forest and the marine, a
decision was made to separate the
plans. However, there is and will
continue to be close interaction during
between the sectors during the
12
development of the plans. The inclusion
of an economic review has been put
forward for consideration in future
iterations. A section outlining the aim
and objectives of the planning
document has been included.
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)
Screening Report
A hierarchy of statutory and non-
statutory adaptation plans has been
included. The adaptation planning
document is a high level document and
will inform the development of DAFM
policy on climate change adaptation in
relation to the agriculture and forest
sector based on a current understanding
of the consequences of climate change
for the sector within Ireland.
The requirements of of S.I. No. 435 of
2004 in its entirety including Article 9 (3)
were taken into account when making
the SEA Screening determination.
Appropriate Assessment (AA) Screening
Report
The requirements for AA in accordance
with the Habitats Directive were taken
into account in making a determination
on the need for an AA for the Plan. The
National Parks and Wildlife Service
(NPWS) were consulted.
