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Philip G. Pardey University of Minnesota
Designing the Path: A Strategic Approach to EU Agricultural Research and Innovation
January 27, 2016, Brussels, Charlemagne Building
Agricultural and Food Innovation: Europe in a Changing Global Reality
Outline
Food and Agricultural Futures• Changing Agricultural Demand Realities• Changing Agricultural Supply (Production and Productivity) Realities
Changing Food and Agricultural R&D Realities
Implications for Food and Agricultural R&D
Thinking and acting for the long run
Why the Long Run Matters
R&D Investments
Farm Productivity Growth
Source: Alston, Anderson, James and Pardey (2010, 2011)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
1 11 21 31 41 51 Year
Lag Weights
Illustrative Technology Development Lags (US)
Source: Pardey , Alston and Ruttan (2008) and Alston et al. (2010)
1877Beal conducts first controlled crosses/hybrid vigor
1905‐1912Shull developed correct understanding of inbreeding and cross breeding
1917 James developed double cross‐hybrid
1922Iowa State station began corn in‐breeding program
1933First commercial planting of Hybrid Iowa 939 developed by Merle Jenkins
1936First release of a widely popular double‐cross hybrid developed at Purdue University
1960Vastly improved in‐breds led to shift to single‐cross hybrids
1960 95 percent of U.S. corn acreage in hybrids
Hybrid Corn
1901Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) discovered in Japan (and 1911 in Germany)
1950s Bt used as a control agent and registered
1986 Cry1Ab gene sequence published
1986Cry1Ab cloned into root colonyzing Pseudomonas bacteria
1992YieldGard insect protected corn event Mon810 produced by "gene gun"
1996FDA, USDA & EPA approvals for Yield Guard
1997Bt corn (corn borer protection) commercialized in U.S.
1998Stacked with other traits (e.g. herbicide tolerance)
2004U.S. patent issued to Monsanto for Mon810
2008 Regulatory approval in 20 countries
Bt Corn
1970 Glyphosphate shown to have herbicidal activity
1976 Roundup herbicide commercialized in U.S.
1980 Idnetification of 3 mechanisms to infer glyphosphate tolerance
Late 1980s Several genes encoding glyphospate insensitivity isolated
1987 First soybean transformation achieved
1990 & 91 Glyphosphate tolerant seeds evaluated
1996 Roundup Ready Soybeans commercialized
Roundup Ready Soybean
Illustrative Technology Development Lags (US)
Source: Pardey , Alston and Ruttan (2008) and Alston et al. (2010)
1877Beal conducts first controlled crosses/hybrid vigor
1905‐1912Shull developed correct understanding of inbreeding and cross breeding
1917 James developed double cross‐hybrid
1922Iowa State station began corn in‐breeding program
1933First commercial planting of Hybrid Iowa 939 developed by Merle Jenkins
1936First release of a widely popular double‐cross hybrid developed at Purdue University
1960Vastly improved in‐breds led to shift to single‐cross hybrids
1960 95 percent of U.S. corn acreage in hybrids
Hybrid Corn
1901Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) discovered in Japan (and 1911 in Germany)
1950s Bt used as a control agent and registered
1986 Cry1Ab gene sequence published
1986Cry1Ab cloned into root colonyzing Pseudomonas bacteria
1992YieldGard insect protected corn event Mon810 produced by "gene gun"
1996FDA, USDA & EPA approvals for Yield Guard
1997Bt corn (corn borer protection) commercialized in U.S.
1998Stacked with other traits (e.g. herbicide tolerance)
2004U.S. patent issued to Monsanto for Mon810
2008 Regulatory approval in 20 countries
Bt Corn
1970 Glyphosphate shown to have herbicidal activity
1976 Roundup herbicide commercialized in U.S.
1980 Idnetification of 3 mechanisms to infer glyphosphate tolerance
Late 1980s Several genes encoding glyphospate insensitivity isolated
1987 First soybean transformation achieved
1990 & 91 Glyphosphate tolerant seeds evaluated
1996 Roundup Ready Soybeans commercialized
Roundup Ready Soybean
59 years 96 years 26 years
U.S. Maize Technology Adoption Lags
Source: Beddow (2012)
0
20
40
60
80
10019
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Percen
tage of U
.S. M
aize Acres
Hybrid Maize
Nitrogen
Nitrogen (rate, index)
Herbicide
Irrigation
U.S. Maize Technology Adoption Lags
Source: Beddow (2012)
0
20
40
60
80
10019
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Percen
tage of U
.S. M
aize Acres
Hybrid Maize
Nitrogen
Nitrogen (rate, index)
Herbicide
Irrigation
18 years 17 years
20 years
13 years
30 years
12 years
Changing Agricultural Demand Realities
Population continues to grow, as will per capita incomes
BUT
In important respects agricultural demand futures will not be like the past
0
2
4
6
8
10
1219
50
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Billion
s
Asia Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Europe Northern America Oceania
39.1%
5.8%
82.7%
43.6%
Population Projections, 1950‐2100
Source: UN Population Division (2015).
0
0.6
1.2
1.8
1950‐2010 2010‐2050 2050‐2100
Percen
t per yea
r
Rate of Growth (%)1.76
0.84
0.28
55.2%9.1%39.1%
64.3%
11.2 b9.7 b
2.5 b
0‐410‐1420‐2430‐3440‐4450‐5460‐6470‐7480‐8490‐94100+
India, 2050
70 50 30 10 10 30 50
Male Female
Percent
0‐410‐1420‐2430‐3440‐4450‐5460‐6470‐7480‐8490‐94100+
China, 2015
70 50 30 10 10 30 50
Male Female
0‐410‐1420‐2430‐3440‐4450‐5460‐6470‐7480‐8490‐94100+
India, 2015
70 50 30 10 10 30 50
Male Female
Age Pyramids
<20 years
38 percent38 percent 23 percent23 percent
0‐410‐1420‐2430‐3440‐4450‐5460‐6470‐7480‐8490‐94100+
China, 2050
70 50 30 10 10 30 50
Male Female
Percent
>60 years 36 percent36 percent19 percent19 percent
18 percent18 percent26 percent26 percent
<20 years
Source: UN Population Division (2015).
Between 2015 and 2050
• More than half the projected global population growth will occur in Africa
• More than half the growth will occur in just nine countries (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, United States, Indonesia and Uganda)
Global life expectancy is expected to rise from 70 years in 2010‐15 to 77 years in 2045‐50, and 83 years in 2095‐2100
• The number of people aged 60 or more is projected to be 1.4bill. by 2030, 2.1bill by 2050, and 3.2bill by 2100.
(The projected slowdown in population growth arising from a reduction in fertility is due to aging)
Behind the Aggregate Population Numbers
GDP Per Capita, 1980‐2050 (2005 PPP$ )
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2005
PPP
$
Low Income
Middle Income
High Income
World
$30,166 $29,446
$58,587
$6,023
Source: CEPII projections (Foure et al. 2012).
0
250
500
750
1,000
1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Billion
$
Farm value
Marketing bill
Consumer expenditures
$180 b
$852 b
Food Costs ‐‐ Farm vs Post‐Farm Shares
(82.5%)
(17.4%)
$17 b
((70.1%) $39 b
(29.9%)
Source: Author with data from USDA‐ERS (2016)
Changing Agricultural Production and Productivity Realities
22.8%16.9%20.6%
9.9%24.2%
44.8%
8.7%
12.4%
16.0%
5.7%
5.6%
6.8%
2.1%
3.5%
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
1961 2013
billion
200
4‐06
$
High Income EU Asia&Pacific LAC E. Europe&Central Asia SSA MENA
$746 b
$2,519 b
43.4%
26.8%
Changing Location of World Agriculture, 1961 vs 2013
Corn Movement in the U.S., 1899‐2007
Share of Corn Output by County, 1899
Share of Corn Output by County, 2007
Source: Beddow and Pardey (2015)
Corn Movement in the U.S., 1899‐2007
Share of Corn Output by County, 1899
Share of Corn Output by County, 2007
Source: Beddow and Pardey (2015)
Moving Matters
279 kilometers north342 kilometers west
16 to 21 percent of corn output growth
Moving Matters
279 kilometers north342 kilometers west
16 to 21 percent of corn output growth
Spatial Concentration in Production
Top 10 Producing Countries
VOP Sh
are (percentage)
Past and Projected Global Average Crop Yield Growth
Source: Authors’ calculation based on FAOSTAT (2015)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Rice Maize Wheat Soybeans Potatoes Sugar cane
percen
t
1961‐1990 1990‐2014
Stem Rust Stripe Rust Leaf Rust
Productivity Maintenance – The Case of Wheat Rusts
Running hard to stand still!
Note: Suitability prediction based on growth index (GI) values from the CLIMEX model
Three Rusts—Seasonally Vulnerable
Two rust typesThree rust types
One rust type
Vulnerability to Wheat Rusts Worldwide
Stem, Leaf and Stripe Rust Vulnerability
None Only One Only Two All Three(Percentage of output, all farms)
Western Europe 0.0 0.0 0.7 99.2
North America 2.2 12.5 37.1 48.3
Australia 0.0 10.3 17.8 71.9
Sub‐Saharan Africa 11.0 3.6 13.9 71.6
China 0.0 0.0 11.5 88.5
India 6.3 18.8 72.5 2.5
World 3.2 6.9 27.1 62.7
Shifting GroundThe Global Food and Agricultural R&D Landscape
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
billion
200
9 PP
P$
Total public and private
Private
Public
Global Public and Private Food & Agricultural R&D, 1960‐2011
Source: Pardey, Chan‐Kang, Beddow and Dehmer (2016, in process)
The Social Payoffs to Agricultural R&D
Have the returns to R&D declined over time?
• 2,829 IRR evaluation estimates from 492 separate studies• Preliminary result: No evidence of a change in the returns to agricultural R&D over time
0
0.02
0.04
0 50 100
Den
sity
BCR (percent per year)
Nos. of Evaluations 799Mean 26.7 Median 12
Behind the Aggregate R&D Numbers
Agricultural R&D spending still highly concentrated spatially
• But big changes in the (rank order) of top 10 spenders
0
20
40
60
80
1960 1980 2011
percen
t
Total Public
Spatial Concentration ‐‐ Top 10 Country Share
Behind the Aggregate R&D Numbers
Agricultural R&D spending still highly concentrated spatially
• But big changes in the (rank order) of top 10 spenders
Shift to more private performance
• But private spending is mainly concentrated in the rich (58.2%) and faster growing middle income countries (BIC 35.7%)
Private Share of Total Agriculture & Food R&D
0.82%
0.67%
2.55%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 2011
Percen
t
High income Middle income Low income
Source: Pardey, Chan‐Kang, Beddow and Dehmer (2015, in process)
Private Food and Agricultural R&D in Rich Countries
Source: Pardey, Chan‐Kang, Beddow and Dehmer (2015, in process)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 2011
2009
billion $P
PP
Food products, beverages & tobacco Agriculture and chemicals Machinery
19%
37%
44%
$19.8b
$8.0b
50%
34%16%
Behind the Aggregate R&D Numbers
Agricultural R&D spending still highly concentrated spatially
• But big changes in the (rank order) of top 10 spenders
Shift to more private performance
• But private spending is mainly concentrated in the rich (58.2%) and faster growing middle income countries (BIC 35.7%)
A stark and growing global divide
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
percen
t
United States
Western Europe
Shifting Global Shares of Public Food & Ag R&D, 1960‐2011
Source: Pardey, Chan‐Kang, Beddow and Dehmer (2016, in process)
Concluding Remarks
Food demand largely follows population, which will continue to shift to Asia and, especially, Africa
R&D likely to remain highly spatially concentrated
• A growing disconnect between the geography of agricultural demand and the location of agricultural R&D performance
Shift towards more contestable and project‐oriented (often shorter‐term) funding of public science
• The problems are just as hard as they ever have been
• The present returns are just as high (pointing to persistent underinvestment)
Accountability for sure, but with a firm and focused eye to the long‐run nature of the problems and the innovation processes in play
Thanks!
www.harvestchoice.orgwww.instepp.umn.edu