Agency on statistics under the Agency on statistics under the PresidentPresident

of the Republic of Tajikistan of the Republic of Tajikistan

Training Workshop on the Compilation of Quarterly National Accounts for Economic Cooperation

Organization Member Countries  

1

Nasriddinov A.

Economist of the National Account department Agency of the statistics under

the President of Republic of Tajikistan

8 – 11 March 2015 Tehran, Iran (Venue: Statistical Research and Training Centre of Iran)

With the transition of the Republic of

Tajikistan to the market economy

emerged historical due to the transition

from the balance of the national

economy to the system of national

accounts to be used for the reflection of

macroeconomic processes in the

transition period of the republic to the

socio - oriented market economy

2

The introduction of SNA -93The introduction of SNA -93

The introduction of SNA -93The introduction of SNA -93

The practical implementation of System of National Accounts in Tajikistan started in 1994-1995

The implementation of SNA -93 was spent in statistics:

- with cooperation of the international organization

- Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, rendering the consultative and methodical help in assimilation of SNA.

3

The national accounts (NA) are compiled by

the Agency in line with SNA 1993 methodology by

using data collected by various Agency

departments and administrative data submitted

by other government agencies, including National

bank of Tajikistan (NBT) and Ministry of finance

(MF). The Agency produces all main current

accounts, some accounts for institutional sectors,

monthly – annual GDP, gross regional product

GRP (estimation) 4

The introduction of SNA -93The introduction of SNA -93

In Tajikistan GDP calculated

by three method:

production method expenditure method

income method

5

GDP calculated by three methods:GDP calculated by three methods:

GDP calculated by three methods:GDP calculated by three methods:

PRODUCTION METHOD – production of branches of economy by statistical report, data of taxes and subsidies by state budget of Ministry of Finance, the intermediate consumption calculated by statistical reports which included material expenditure.

EXPENDITURE METHOD - expenditure of households estimated by goods streams and data of household’s survey, expenditure of government on the basis of state budget, fixed capital formation definite on the basis of information of construction department, changes in inventories complained by annual report of account balance of enterprises and estimated by methodical calculation, export and import estimated by data of external trade statistics and then corrected with “Payment Balance” of National Bank.

INCOME METHOD - data of labor statistics and data of state budget by taxes and subsidies. 6

Currently in Tajikistan implemented Currently in Tajikistan implemented calculations accountscalculations accounts

Account of goods and services

Production account

Generation of income account

Allocation of primary income account

Secondary distribution of income

account

Used of disposable income account

Capital account 7

Main data sources of National Account Main data sources of National Account

Statistical information (annual and quarterly)

Data of state budget of Ministry of Finance

Selective services of branches of economy

Data of household survey

Data of Labour Force survey

Production side - all aggregates compiled in current and constant prices.

Expenditure side - all aggregates compiled in current and constant prices.

Constant prices –all aggregates calculated only in prices of previous year

9

Estimation of aggregates of SNA Estimation of aggregates of SNA

Quarter GDPQuarter GDP

AS start to produce QNA in 2008, with technical support international expert (Slovakia) in the framework SNSS project (WB);

For calculation of QNA used cumulative data and we made estimated quarterly data, because in more statistics areas we have not quarterly reporting forms (agricultural, trade, services, construction etc.

10

Quarter GDP 2011 Quarter GDP 2011 (est.)(est.)

11

Output

Intermediate consumption

Gross value

added

Taxes GDP

Q I 1563 762 801 157 958

Q II 2408 1175 1233 229 1462

Q III 3407 1705 1702 219 1921

Q IV 3764 1786 1978 204 2182

         Total 11142 5427 5715 809 6524

mln. dollar

Quarter GDP 2012Quarter GDP 2012

12

Output

Intermediate

consumption

Gross value

added

Taxes GDP

Q I 1807 828 979 180 1158

Q II 2780 1319 1461 277 1738

Q III 4001 1935 2066 256 2322

Q IV 4145 1993 2151 217 2369

       Total 12733 6075 6657 929 7587

mln. dollar

Quarter GDP Quarter GDP 20132013

13

Output

Intermediate

consumption

Gross value

added

Taxes GDP

Q I 2192 1036 1157 242 1399

Q II 3226 1502 1724 207 1931

Q III 3891 2272 1620 300 1920

Q IV 5177 2254 2923 333 3256

         Total 14486 7063 7423 1083 8506

mln. dollar

The future plan is to do the followingThe future plan is to do the following 1 1::

strengthening human capacity, skills and knowledge in the of national accounts department AS;

Improved data on industry statistics, use of quarterly price index to calculate the QNA;

improvement of estimates of GDP at constant prices;

improvement of the quarterly calculations simultaneously organization collecting quarterly data in branch departments agencies;

14

improvement of methods of measurement of the output of the informal sector and illegal activities;

improvement of calculation of consumption of fixed capital;

improvement in the method of calculation of holding gains;

improvement of calculation of FISIM; financial accounts; completion of the implementation of

the SNA 1993 and phased transition to the SNA2008

15

The future plan is to do the following 2:

The very high turnover and weak

capacity of the personnel require that their

practical skills are strengthened in the

compilation of national accounts, in-depth

methodological recommendations and

directions for improvement of further work.

16

ConclusionConclusion

For this reason we need to prepare and

teach people on the one of the main sector of

statistics – National accounts.

The important issues also is to Learn

from experience of other countries.

Also improvement of the quality of

economic statistics is important.

17

ConclusionConclusion

18

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION !www.stat.tj

E-mail office: stat@tajikistan.com

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION !!با تشکر از توجه

İLGİNİZ İÇİN TEŞEKKÜR EDERİZ!НАЗАРЛАРЫҢЫЗҒА РАХМЕТ

DİQQƏTİNİZƏ GÖRƏ TƏŞƏKKÜR EDİRƏM

توجه کی لی شکریه

19