After the Housing Crisis - Second Liens and Contractual Inefficiencies

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    After the Housing Crisis: Second Liens and Contractual Inefficiencies

    Chris Mayer, Ed Morrison, and Tomek PiskorskiColumbia UniversityMay 2012

    1. IntroductionSecond liens are thought to be an important problem for banks, consumers,

    and mortgage modification policies targeting the housing crisis. For banks, the

    problem is that they appear to be overexposed to the risks attendant to second liens.

    These liens account for about $870 billion of U.S. household debt (Equifax Credit

    Trends, August 2011) and ninety percent of this second lien debt is carried on the

    balance sheets of commercial banks (FDIC 2012). As property values decline and

    foreclosure rates increase, second liens are particularly vulnerable due to their

    junior priority relative to first mortgages. This vulnerability appears to put

    commercial banks at substantial risk because second liens account for over half of

    bank capital (Lee, et al. 2012).

    For consumers and policymakers, the problem is that second liens may

    undermine mortgage modification efforts (Mayer, et al. 2009).1In particular, it is not

    uncommon for the first and second liens to be serviced by different parties. When

    different parties service the different liens, there is the potential that the second lien

    servicer may hold up efforts to modify the mortgages. Effective modification could

    require a substantial write-down or even elimination of the second lien. Instead of

    agreeing to that kind of modification, servicers of second liens may prefer to play a

    wait-and-see strategy, hoping the homeowner continues paying and housing values

    recover. So a policy of providing a modest payment for the second lien to get out of

    the way when writing down the first lien might be efficient (Mayer, et al. 2009).

    Most analysts agree that the existence of second liens gets in the way of efficient

    1We note that there are compelling arguments that in times of significant adverse macroshocks, debt forgiveness and loan renegotiation can create value for both borrowers andlenders (see for example Bolton and Rosenthal, 2002; and Piskorski and Tchistyi, 2008).

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    mortgage modification and thus may be contributing to the foreclosure crisis in the

    country (Amherst Mortgage Securities, 2010).

    To illustrate the hold-up problem, suppose that a home is encumbered by

    two liens, a first lien equal to $110 and a second equal to $30, each serviced by two

    different servicers. Suppose as well that the homes current market value is $100,

    but that lenders would receive $90 in a foreclosure due to the administrative costs

    and other frictions generated by the foreclosure process. In some circumstances

    when the homeowner refuses or is unable to pay, modificationreducing the

    homeowners current cumulative loan-to-value (CCLTV) to $100is economically

    efficient. Lenders will receive a greater overall recovery from a modification of the

    mortgage debt than from a foreclosure.2

    But the fragmented ownership of themortgage debt could prevent this efficient outcome. Modification requires that the

    homeowners CCLTV be reduced by $40. The first lien lender is highly unlikely to

    reduce its lien by this amount (from $110 to $70) because its recovery would fall

    below what it could expect from foreclosure. The second lien lender is also unlikely

    to write down its lien, absent some compensation. Because its lien is worthless in

    foreclosure, the second lien lender has nothing to lose from holding up any

    modification effort. Indeed, it can credibly refuse to modify its lien unless the first

    lien lender shares some or all of its gains from modification (relative to foreclosure).

    Efficient modification, therefore, requires first lien investors either to (i) write down

    their lien to $70 or (ii) pay the second lien lender a bribe that could be as large as

    the first lien lenders gains from modification. The bribe effectively taxes the

    modification and thereby reduces its likelihood of happening.

    But hold-up is not the only challenge posed by second liens. Even when both

    liens are serviced by the same entity, problems arise when the first is securitized

    2To keep this example simple we abstract from possible incentive issues and asymmetricinformation between borrower and lender (or servicer), such as the likelihood that aprogram modifying mortgages may encourage some borrowers to default who would nototherwise do so. See Mayer et al. (2011) for discussion of these issues.

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    and the second is a portfolio loan on the servicers balance sheet. This is a frequent

    occurrence. More than half of second liens are held on the balance sheets of the

    largest banks, and these same banks service more than two-thirds of securitized

    first liens. When a bank services both liens, but only owns one of them, a potential

    conflict of interest arises. The servicer may delay or prevent modification of the first

    lien in order to delay recognition of losses on the second, and to prolong payments

    on the second. Conflicted servicers may also service the two liens in a way that

    prioritize payments to second liens, held on their own balance sheet, over first liens,

    held by outside investors. This reversal in the contractual priority of the liens is

    sometimes called lien shifting (Frey, 2011).Additionally, accounting and other

    regulatory rules may require a write-down of the second lien when the first is

    modified. If second liens represent an important part of a banks capital

    requirements, it may be reluctant to take actions (with respect to first mortgages)

    that tend to reduce its capital base.

    Government policies have attempted to address problems with outstanding

    second liens, without success. HAMP (Home Affordable Mortgage Program) offers to

    pay second lien holders a nominal amount to cover costs of modifying or writing-off

    second liens, but has resulted in only 76,218 such modifications as of April, 2012,

    with fewer than 17,000 of them involving write-offs.3

    In this essay, we assess the gravity of problems posed by second liens and

    propose legal and contractual responses. We begin our analysis in Section 2 by

    quantifying the importance of second liens and discussing evidence that second

    liens adversely impact mortgage modification efforts. We note that it is important

    not to overstate the problems posed by second liens. Although homeowners owe

    $717.2 billion in second lien debt, about $570 billion of that arises from home equity

    lines of credit (HELOCs). Most of the remaining debt ($148 billion) arises from

    3Treasury Department, March 2012 Making Home Affordable Report.

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    closed-end second liens (CES).4As Lee, et al. (2012) show, most HELOCs were given

    to borrowers with a conforming/prime first mortgage and relatively strong credit

    scores, while CES were often given to borrowers with nonprime mortgages and

    much weaker credit.5 In fact, CES balances are down more than 40 percent from

    their peak, often due to defaults and subsequent write-offs by lenders. Thus only a

    relatively small fraction of all second liensworth about $150 billionare in the

    riskiest category of mortgages. As Lee, et al. note that HELOC performance might

    deteriorate in the future if defaults grow again for underwater borrowers with

    HELOCs, although that has not yet occurred.6Nonetheless, CES might still be worthy

    of policy concern because of risks the pose for more than $600 billion of outstanding

    first mortgages with which they are associated.

    We then turn, in Sections 3 and 4, to potential legal and contractual

    responses. While temporary policies have been proposed to alleviate problems

    posed by second liens during economic crises, as noted above, such policies have

    had only a limited impact on modification efforts. With most underwater borrowers

    today still making payments on both first and second liens, we think it is important,

    therefore, that policymakers and market participants design a durable framework

    today for resolving the problems posed by second liens in the future. We therefore

    propose (i) federal legislation and (ii) call for contract standardization that would

    mitigate, if not eliminate, coordination and conflict of interest problems going

    4Based on Equifax Credit Trends (March, 2012).5Additionally, to the extent that second liens are being carried at inflated values on bankbalance sheets, recent FDIC guidance is now forcing more realistic valuations(http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120131a.htm).In April 2012,Wells Fargo and JPMorgan reclassified $3.3 billion in second liens as nonperforming assets(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-13/wells-fargo-jpmorgan-label-more-junior-home-loans-as-bad-assets.html). Further write-downs by other banks, such as Bank of

    America, are expected soon.6One striking fact: According to a recent Zillow report, While a third of homeowners withmortgages is underwater, 90 percent of underwater homeowners are current on theirmortgage and continue to make payments.(http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/2012/05/24/despite-home-value-gains-underwater-homeowners-owe-1-2-trillion-more-than-homes-worth/)

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    forward. In particular we propose, that federal law require all second mortgages to

    include a provision that automatically eliminates the second lien (but not the

    personal debt of the borrower) when associated first mortgage is underwater and

    the first mortgage lender has committed to reduce the principal balance. This

    proposal mitigates coordination problems because it permits unilateral

    modification of the first mortgage, without consent or resistance from the second

    lien lender. We discuss legal protections that would prevent first mortgage lenders

    from using this power to disadvantage second lien lenders. We also propose that

    banks and investors adopt standardized pooling and servicing agreements (PSAs)

    that prohibit servicers of securitized first mortgages from owning associated second

    liens. Such standardized PSAs would mitigate conflict of interest problems.

    2. Evidence2.1 Quantifying the Extent of Exposure

    According to data from Equifax Credit Trends (March, 2012), consumers owe

    about $10.93 trillion to various lenders. Of that total, first mortgages represent

    about $7.93 trillion and second liens are another $717.2 billion. Among the

    outstanding second liens, the bulk ($569.1 billion) are home equity lines of credit

    (HELOCs), which are revolving credit lines backed by the collateral in a home as well

    as consumers personal credit. In total, HELOCs are about the same size as all other

    types of revolving credit: Credit lines such as bankcards and retail credit cards

    represent $583.7 billion. Closed end second liens (CES) are much smaller,

    representing about $148.1 billion, less than 10% of all other non-revolving debt

    such as auto, student and various loans ($1.69 trillion).

    The distinction between HELOCs and CES is important. Banks argue that

    HELOCs were given to borrowers with relatively high credit worthiness and were

    underwritten to a great extent based on the credit quality of the borrower, not just

    home value. Lee, et. al. (2012) provide evidence consistent with this claim, showing

    that origination FICO scores and subsequent default rates for HELOCs are similar to

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    those for prime first mortgages. Moreover, because HELOCS were often used to

    finance home improvements, homeowners who took on HELOCS likely occupy

    homes that have improved in value, reducing the probability that these borrowers

    will default. By contrast, the origination characteristics and subsequent

    performance of CES are much closer to those of subprime first mortgages. In terms

    of payments, default rates on CES remain more than twice as high as for HELOCs.

    When the first mortgage defaults, 20 percent of CES borrowers and 30 percent of

    HELOC borrowers continue to pay their second lien for more than a year while

    remaining seriously delinquent on their first mortgage.7These observations suggest

    that HELOCS are less likely than CES to have an adverse impact on mortgage

    modification efforts.

    In light of these differences between CES and HELOCs, it is instructive to

    examine second lien holdings by commercial banks. Table 1 shows these holdings

    for the four largest banks in the U.S. For three of the four banks (Bank of America,

    Wells Fargo, and JPMorgan Chase), the total value of second liensCES and

    HELOCsexceeds the value of tangible common equity, and by a substantial

    amount for Wells Fargo. But the second liens at highest risk of defaultCES

    represent a relatively small fraction (no more than 18 percent) of overall second

    lien holdings by these banks. The bank with largest exposure to CES is Walls Fargo,

    for whom holdings of these liens represents about 24 percent of tangible common

    equity.

    These observations suggest that the risks posed by second liens may be

    primarily associated with CES, which represent a relatively small proportion of all

    second liens. This is not to say, however, that CES are not worthy of policy concern.

    To the contrary, they may create obstacles to modification for hundreds of billions

    of dollars of first mortgages. Recent data suggest that outstanding CES balances total

    7By comparison, about 40 percent of credit card borrowers and 70 percent of auto loanborrowers will continue making payments a year after defaulting on their first mortgage.

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    held in the servicers portfolio or is securitized.In addition these data have

    comprehensive information on loan renegotiation actions performed by the

    servicers.

    The authors compare two cases: those in which the first and second

    mortgages are portfolio loans held by a single bank, and those in which the first is

    securitized and the second is a portfolio loan held by the same bank that services

    the first mortgage. They find that securitized first liens with seconds are less likely

    to be liquidated or modified than portfolio first liens with seconds. Put differently,

    when ownership of the first and second liens is fragmented, the first lien tends to sit

    in limbo: it is neither modified nor foreclosed upon- a situation that persists even

    when the liens are serviced by the same bank.

    Overall, the evidence provided by Agarwal, et al. (2011a) is consistent with

    presence of both coordination problems and conflicts of interests between the

    owners of first and second liens. It is also in line with prior research providing

    evidence that securitization affects servicing and renegotiation of first lien

    mortgages (see Piskorski et al (2010), Agarwal et al (2011b), and Zhang (2011)).

    3. A Policy ProposalThe hold-up power of second liens is no surprise, and was likely anticipated

    by first mortgage investors when they invested in the first mortgages. But the

    primary concern of first mortgage investors appears to have been the possibility

    that first mortgage servicersusually the originating bankswould modify the first

    mortgages in ways that benefit second liens on the same properties (Frey, 2011).

    First mortgage servicers might do that because they often carry the second liens on

    their balance sheets and therefore face a conflict of interest in servicing the first

    mortgage. But this response to potential conflicts of interest has two key defects,

    which have loomed large in the financial crisis: when modifications are in the best

    interests of first lien lenders, the PSAs (i) create severe roadblocks to modification

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    (see Mayer, et al. 2009) and (ii) do nothing to remedy the hold-up power of second

    lien lenders.

    To be sure, its unclear how PSAs and first mortgages could have been

    drafted to remedy the hold-up power of second lien lenders. First mortgages could

    have included provision prohibiting homeowners from taking on second liens

    without the consent of the first lien investors or the servicing agent (so-called

    negative pledge clauses) and imposing penalties when homeowners violate the

    prohibition (such as fees or higher interest rates). First mortgages might also have

    included provisions stating that, in the event that a homeowner receives consent to

    take on a second mortgage, the second mortgage lender must enter an inter-creditor

    agreement that minimizes the risk of hold-up in the event that the homeownersuffers distress. These kinds of inter-creditor agreements are commonly observed in

    corporate lending. Indeed, the term silent second lien has a radically different

    meaning in the corporate lending sector: instead of describing a lurking lien that

    first lien lenders are unaware of (as it does in residential lending), it describes a lien

    subject to an inter-creditor agreement that requires second lien lenders to give their

    automatic consent (and remain silent) to negotiations between the borrower and

    first lien lenders.

    But these contractual solutions to the hold-up problem are costly to deploy,

    particularly because they require close monitoring of the debtors balance sheet. If

    first mortgage lenders do not monitor homeowners, lenders might only discover the

    existence of second mortgages after the homeowner is distressed (or in

    bankruptcy). At that point, there is little gain to imposing fees or other penalties,

    which will only deepen the homeowners distress and make mortgage modification

    even more difficult. But the cost of monitoring likely outweighs the benefit in most

    cases: The value of a first mortgage is typically too small to justify the careful

    monitoring that is necessary.

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    We are describing a complex contracting problem. It could be hard for

    homeowners to credibly commit themselves not to take on second mortgages, and

    first mortgage lenders may be unable to monitor homeowners in a cost-effective

    way. Put differently, it appears that private contractual solutions may not prevent

    ex-post hold-up by second lien lenders in a cost-effective way.

    We believe this justifies a regulatory response to the hold-up problem, at

    least during housing crises. When housing prices suddenly experience large

    declines, the hold-up problem creates an important externality: because it prevents

    efficient modifications, it contributes to widespread foreclosures, damages

    communities, and prolongs the crisis.

    We propose the following solution to the hold-up problem: Federal (or state)

    law should require that every second mortgage include a provision that

    automatically eliminates the second lien, thereby converting the second mortgage

    into unsecured debt, upon the occurrence of two conditions: (i) the first mortgage

    lender (or servicer acting on behalf of investors) agrees to reduce the principal

    balance of the first lien and (ii) the appraised value of the home indicates that it is

    worth less than the first lien (i.e., LTV>100). This solution would permit automatic

    stripdown of second liens when those liens are worthless in foreclosure

    (requirement ii) and threaten to hold-up efficient modifications that have been

    proposed by the first lien lender (requirement i). Because second liens can be

    stripped down only when the first lien lenders agree to modify their own liens, our

    proposal deters first lien lenders from using our policy strategically to divert value

    from second lien lenders. If second lien lenders nonetheless believe that their liens

    were stripped down unnecessarily, they would have the right to bring suit against

    first lien lenders. The suit, however, could only ask a court either to (i) assess

    whether the first lien exceeded the appraised value of the home at the time the

    second lien was stripped down or (ii) verify that first lien lenders modified their

    own liens.

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    The primary virtue of this solution is that it facilitates principal reductions

    without requiring a bankruptcy filing. Under current law, summarized by Levitin

    (2009), a homeowner can generally strip down a second lien in bankruptcy,

    provided the home value is less than the first lien (LTV>100). But a bankruptcy

    filing is very costly to the homeowner and creditors: it damages the homeowners

    credit score, forces the homeowner to submit to a multi-year plan of repayment that

    is sufficiently onerous that nearly two-thirds of homeowners are unable to complete

    the plan, and discharges unsecured claims, including stripped down second liens.

    Moreover, bankruptcy is an overly aggressive solution to the hold-up problem.

    Many homeowners default on their mortgages simply because their homes are

    worth far less than the combined mortgage balance. The homeowners have

    sufficient liquidity to pay the mortgage balances, but conclude that it makes no

    sense to continue paying a debt that far exceeds the value of the home it secures.

    These homeowners dont need bankruptcy, which potentially readjusts all of their

    debts. They need a simpler solution that adjusts only their mortgage debts.

    Although our solution strips down second mortgages, it does not delete the

    underlying debts. Homeowners will remain liable for the entire remaining balance

    of the second mortgage. That balance, however, will become an unsecured debt,

    much like a credit card balance. If that balance is too large for a homeowner to pay,

    she will still have the option to file for bankruptcy to discharge the debt. If she does

    that, the outcome will be the same as if our proposed solution did not exist: the

    second mortgage debt will be discharged. What our proposed solution permits,

    however, is the possibility that the homeowner can modify her first mortgage, pay

    her unsecured debts (including the second lien) in full, and keep her homeall

    without incurring the costs of a bankruptcy filing.

    This solution shares much in common with the bail-in proposal for

    systemically important institutions (Duffie 2009) and Adlers longstanding

    chameleon equity proposal for corporations(Adler 1997). Under each of these

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    proposals, senior claims convert to junior claims when the institution suffers

    distress, thereby achieving a restructuring without a costly bankruptcy or other

    resolution process.

    We do not believe our proposal presents meaningful constitutional

    questions. Assuming it was implemented via federal legislation, our proposal would

    invoke Congresss power to regulate commerce (here, mortgage markets) and

    would not violate the Takings Clause because it would apply prospectively to

    mortgages originated in the future. If a state were to implement our policy, we do

    not believe it run afoul of the Constitution. There is precedent for states taking

    aggressive steps to limit the kinds of mortgages supplied to their residents. Until

    1997, for example, Texas prohibited homeowners from taking on home equity loansunless the loans were to finance home improvements or tax payments. Since then,

    certain kinds of home equity loans have been permitted, but only if they do not

    increase CCLTV above 80 (see Forrester 2002).

    One potential weakness of our proposal is that it depends heavily on the

    discretion of the first mortgage servicer, which must decide whether to invoke the

    procedure for writing-down second liens. If the first mortgages are securitized and

    the servicer owns second liens associated with those first mortgages, the servicer

    will labor under precisely the same conflict of interest that has long concerned first

    mortgage investors. A solution to this problempreviously proposed by Frey

    (2011)is to prohibit servicers from owning second liens while servicing

    associated first liens for others. That solution, however, can be implemented by

    contract. We therefore do not propose regulation to implement it.

    Our proposal would undoubtedly affect the price of credit. Second lien debt

    will almost surely become more expensive because our proposal limits recoveries in

    the event that home values decline substantially. The price of first mortgage debt

    could decline because our proposal eliminates ex post holdup problems.

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    4. Alternative ProposalsAn alternative policy, favored by scholars such as Levitin (1999), is to revise

    consumer bankruptcy law (especially Chapter 13) to permit homeowners to

    reduce (cramdown) the principal balance of their residential mortgages to equalthe current values of their homes. Current bankruptcy law forbids cramdown with

    respect to first mortgages and above-water second liens: if a homeowner wants to

    retain a primary residence, the homeowner must pay the existing principal balance,

    or any lower balance to which the lender agrees during a consensual modification.

    Proposed reforms would change this: An underwater homeowner could enter

    bankruptcy and, by invoking cramdown, exit with a mortgage balance that is no

    greater than the homes value.

    This proposalto permit cramdown in bankruptcycould alleviate the

    hold-up problem created by second liens. Current law does permit cramdown with

    respect to underwater second liens: If the value of the home is less than the first

    mortgage, an underwater second mortgage can be converted into unsecured debt,

    which can then be discharged by the bankruptcy process. Thus, current bankruptcy

    law gives homeowners and first mortgage lenders power to overcome second lien

    hold-up. But this power can be invoked only if the homeowner files for bankruptcy.Not only is bankruptcy itself a costly process, but the benefit from filing is limited

    because homeowners cannot restructure first mortgage debt in bankruptcy. If the

    bankruptcy code were revised to permit cramdown of first mortgages, homeowners

    would have leverage to restructure all mortgage debts and would likely be more

    willing to use the bankruptcy process to address hold-up problems created by

    second liens.

    In our view, proposals to revise the bankruptcy code are unwise because

    cramdown is an overly aggressive remedy for a problem that is amenable to tailored

    solutions, such as the one we propose.

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    It is said that homeowners need to be given leverage or a stick in

    negotiations with mortgage servicers and that cramdown is the appropriate stick.

    We agree that a stick may be necessary when mortgage modification requires

    negotiation with multiple lenders, some of whom may hold-up modification efforts.

    Our proposal creates such a stick by automatically writing down underwater second

    liens when the associated first lien is being modified. Unlike bankruptcy cramdown,

    our proposal does not require a borrower to bear the monetary and reputational

    costs of filing for bankruptcy, does not lead to a potentially unnecessary

    restructuring of other debts (such as credit cards and auto loans), and does not

    expose first lien lenders to the possibility that a bankruptcy judge will mandate

    overly aggressive modification. We say that a modification is overly aggressive if it

    extends greater concessions to the borrower than a modification that the borrower

    and lender would have privately negotiated on their own, in the absence of frictions

    such as hold-up problems and conflicts of interest. Our proposal fosters private

    negotiation by reducing these frictions. Bankruptcy cramdown gives homeowners

    the option to bypass private negotiation and seek more aggressive modification in

    bankruptcy court.

    There are several reasons why judicially-administered cramdowns could be

    overly aggressive. Perhaps the most important is judicial error. Judges may

    undervalue homes: The lower the assessed home value, the greater the cramdown

    of the first lien. Judges might also select an inappropriately low interest rate for

    future payments by the debtor: If the debtors risk of default is high, but the interest

    rate fails to account for this, the expected value of future payments to the lender will

    be less than the judicially determined (and potentially erroneous) value of the

    home.9The risk of judicial error is non-trivial because bankruptcy judges have

    9A number of courts have selected an interest rate equal to the prime rate plus a riskpremium equal to one to three percent, as noted by the Supreme Court in Till v. SCS CreditCorp., 541 U.S. 465, 480 (2004). This formula likely produces an interest rate that isinappropriately low when the risk of default is high. Currently, for example, the prime rate

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    extremely large caseloads during non-crisis periods and would have even larger

    caseloads during a crisis period if cramdown were permitted.10Likewise, it is not

    clear that bankruptcy judges are generally sufficiently knowledgeable to choose the

    right course of action, particularly during a crisis. Lack expertise could result in less

    effective modifications, potentially increasing the risk of re-default and subsequent

    foreclosure. Moreover, while the number of bankruptcy judges could be increased

    during crises, it is unlikely that Congress can act sufficiently quickly to do this. This

    delay could prolong a housing crisis and exacerbate associated losses.

    We are assuming that judicial error is harmful to lenders. It might be thought

    that, if judges are unbiased, their errors are equally likely to benefit and harm

    lenders. That is likely untrue. First, when faced with uncertainty, judges may preferto err in favor of households, resulting in overly aggressive modifications. Second, it

    is unclear whether judicial error would ever benefit lenders. If judicial error yields

    insufficientlyaggressive modification, the lender has incentive to make it more

    aggressive in order to avoid re-default or foreclosure. If the error results in overly

    aggressive modification, the lender is harmed. An overly aggressive modification

    could reduce lender liens by too much, but it could also offer benefits to

    homeowners who not be offered them in private negotiation. Either way, lenders

    are harmed by cramdown relative to the privately negotiated outcomes. Finally,

    even assuming errors could benefit lenders, these errors tend to increase the overall

    risk of mortgage financing by increasing uncertainty regarding future cash flows.

    Because bankruptcy cramdown likely reduces lender recoveriesand

    increases uncertainty regarding future cash flowsrelative to privately negotiated

    is 3.25%. Yields on high-yield corporate bonds are about 7.68%, more than four percentagepoints higher than the prime rate. Data are taken from Bloomberg.com.10During the 12-month period ending June 30, 2008, for example, there were 368bankruptcy judges and 967,831 bankruptcy filings, implying a caseload of 2,630 bankruptcyfilings per judge (Mayer 2009). That caseload will rise substantially if cramdown ispermitted, and will rise dramatically during a crisis if homeowners view cramdown as aprincipal avenue for achieving mortgage modification.

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    modifications, it will likely affect the price of credit. The magnitude of this effect is

    unclear, but studies such as Pence (2006) show that the supply of credit is adversely

    affected by laws that reduce creditor recoveries. A cramdown-induced increase in

    the price of credit will likely harm borrowers and reduce overall welfare.

    For these reasons, we believe that bankruptcy cramdown is an overly blunt

    tool for dealing with problems arising from second liens. Our proposal is more

    tailored and avoids imposing unnecessary costs of first mortgage lenders. Indeed,

    our proposal can be seen as simply taking rules that currently apply in bankruptcy

    (permitting cramdown of wholly underwater second liens) and applying them to

    second liens generally, facilitating private negotiation between borrowers and their

    first mortgage lenders.

    5. ConclusionThe results in this paper suggest that the second lien problem, while quite large,

    may not serve as a major impediment for a recovering housing market. Most

    outstanding second liens are HELOCs, which were given to higher credit quality

    borrowers who are current on their first and second liens. Of the lower quality

    closed end second liens, more than 40 percent are already burned off. Theremaining CES balances are large, but would likely not threaten the capital position

    of a major bank without large increases in HELOC losses as well. Furthermore, the

    potential problems with conflicts of interest for second lien holders being more

    willing to modify securitized first liens to preserve second lien recoveries that are

    on their own balance sheet have been mitigated by new FDIC rules that require the

    second lien holder to write off their second lien balance when the first lien becomes

    delinquent.

    However, existing evidence suggests that problems with second liens

    nonetheless have contributed to the slow housing recovery and excessive

    foreclosures. Coordination problems may have led to some additional foreclosures

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    as lenders were unable to pursue principal modifications on the first lien, even if

    such modifications were relatively rare in the crisis. As well, the ability to hold up

    the process and collect additional payments might have encouraged second lien

    holders to provide cheaper credit to borrowers, exacerbating excessive homeowner

    leverage in the period leading up to the crisis.

    Our proposal provides a road map to a new solution to help prevent second lien

    hold-up problems from interfering with modifications in the future. We believe that

    this proposal would provide a simple contractual solution to the second lien

    problem, reducing the current situation that encourages lenders to provide second

    liens over unsecured credit or larger first liens. Of course, homeowners might also

    be worse off taking out second liens relative to a larger first lien or unsecured creditin a downturn, but consumers may not be as well as equipped as lenders to choose

    credit fully anticipating future potential problems. Thus our contractual solution

    allows first lien holders to more easily convert second liens to unsecured credit

    when they want to undertake a principal modification without the need to enter

    bankruptcy.

    Finally, we believe that future contractual solutions would be justified to try to

    prevent other frictions that have exacerbated the impact of the crisis on

    homeowners, servicers, and investors. For example, mortgages might contain

    provisions that allow for automatic modification if home prices fall below some level

    or household incomes fall (Piskorski and Tchistyi, 2010). Borrowers might be

    allowed to use an underwater mortgage finance the purchase of a new home in a

    different market (where unemployment might be lower) if that homeowner

    purchased a new home for at least as much money as their current home was

    wortha so called portable mortgage. Automatic refinancing when interest rates

    fall would also help homeowners by encouraging refinancing without large

    origination costs. The crisis has exposed many appreciable frictions in the mortgage

    market that made it more difficult for the economy to recover and surely harmed

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    homeowners and investors. We have an opportunity to develop new structures in

    the future to address these issues.

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    Mayer, Christopher, Edward Morrison, Tomasz Piskorski, and Arpit Gupta, 2011,Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlementwith Countrywide, Working paper.

    Pence, Karen, 2006, Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit,

    Review of Economics and Statistics88, 177-82.

    Piskorski, Tomasz, and Alexei Tchistyi, 2010,"Optimal Mortgage Design." Review ofFinancial Studies23, 3098-3140.

    Piskorski, Tomasz, Amit Seru, and Vikrant Vig, 2010, Securitization and DistressedLoan Renegotiation: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis,Journal ofFinancial Economics97(3), 369-397.

    Piskorski, Tomasz, and Alexei Tchistyi, 2011, Stochastic House Appreciation andOptimal Mortgage Lending, Review of Financial Studies24, 1407-1446.

    Zhang, Yan, 2011, Does Loan Renegotiation Differ by Loan Status? An Empirical

    Study, OCC Working Paper.

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    Table 1:

    CES and Revolving Second Liens by 4 Largest American Banks

    (in billions of dollars)

    Originator Closed End2ndLiens

    Residential RevolvingLines of Credit

    Share of TotalRevolving

    Total Revolvingand 2ndLiens

    Tangible CommonEquity Capital

    Bank of America $25.9 $116.9 17.7% $142.8 $120.4

    Wells Fargo $18.3 $105.5 16.0% $123.8 $75.6

    JPMorgan Chase $11.3 $100.7 15.3% $112.0 $110.7

    Citigroup $24.2 $30.8 4.7% $55.0 $121.0

    Total Top 4 $79.7 $353.9 53.7% $433.7 $427.8

    Notes:Individual bank data from Q2 2010 Federal Reserve data. Total 1-4-family servicing from InsideMortgage Finance. Total Residential Revolving Lines of Credit refers to revolving lines of credit heldat FDIC-insured institutions. It is not the total universe. Total Revolving Second and Second Liens

    Total/by Investor is from Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data (Z1).