Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
i
Afar National Regional State Programme of Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change
Teams Participated in this Document Preparation
Regional Task Team Members Federal Task Team Members
1. Ato Assefa Biru: Afar Pastoral, Agriculture
and Rural Development Bureau
1. Ato Alebachew Adem - Forum for
Social Studies
2. Ato Biru Eshete: Afar Pastoral, Agriculture
and Rural Development Bureau
2. Ato Belayhun Hailu - Pastoral
Community Development Project
3. Ato Mohammed Mahmud: Afar Pastoral,
Agriculture and Rural Development Bureau
3. Dr. Daniel Temesgen - Pastoralist
Forum Ethiopia
4. Ato Abdurahman Mohammed: Afar Pastoral
and Agro-pastoral Research Institute
4. Ato Elizabeth Milton – Support for
Sustainable Development
5. Ato Berhanu Terefe: Semera University 5. W/t Milha Desta - Forum for
Environment
Technical and Financial Support:
Environmental Protection Authority of
the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
October 2010
Semera
ii
Executive Summary
Climate change is one of the phenomena that is imposing impacts on livelihood of human
beings, natural resources and other systems. Climate change is already impacting
populations, livelihoods and ecosystems in Ethiopia. Exacerbating poverty and leading to
infrastructural breakdown and social insecurity, it threatens to set back development
efforts by decades, profoundly affecting all of us. Further, its potential to cause natural
environmental hazards and the potential to undermine the country’s economic
development and social progress is great and growing.
Some of the challenges of climate change such as fostering environmental sustainability
and local and regional food insecurity are still high on the agenda of Ethiopia’s
development goals. It is widely recognized that failure to respond to the challenges posed
by climate change would impede national efforts aimed at boosting agricultural
productivity, and promoting industrial growth and social transformation.
About 12% of Ethiopia's 74 million people are pastoralists (CSA, 2008), herding their
livestock in the arid and semi-arid lowlands that constitute about 63% of the country's
land mass (MoARD, 2008). These areas are prone to rainfall variability, extreme drought
and flash floods. In pastoral areas of Ethiopia, climate change adds a new and largely
uncertain dimension to the development problems by compounding the risks of natural
hazards and complicating existing social and economic imbalances. It will add to the
burden of those who are already poor and vulnerable by affecting their livelihood pattern
and strategies and triggering food, feed, water and social insecurity.
The Afar National Regional State is characterized by an arid and semi-arid climate with
low and erratic rainfall. The altitude of the region ranges from 120m below sea level to
1500m above sea level. Temperatures vary from 20’C in higher elevations to 48’C in
lower elevations. Rainfall is bi-modal throughout the region with a mean annual rainfall
below 500 mm in the semi-arid western escarpments and decreasing to 150 mm in the
arid zones to the east. Afar is increasingly drought prone. The production system of the
Afar region is dominated by pastoralism (90%) from which agro-pastoralism (10%) is
now emerging following some permanent and temporary rivers on which small scale
irrigation is developed.
The Afar pastoralists live and work in the semi-arid and arid areas of the eastern
Ethiopian Rift Valley, adapting to the high climatic variability. Their production system
is based on longstanding pastoralist institutions, which have been in place for centuries.
However, their ability to make the best use of the non-equilibrium environment is
seriously hampered by climate change and extreme weather events including drought and
flash floods. The aim of the study is thus to identify climate change impacts, vulnerability
iii
of major sectors, their adaptive capacity, possible response measures, best practices and
technologies to adapt to climate change and suggest future adaptation measures.
Federal and Regional task forces were established for this study. Each task force prepared
climate change assessment report based on secondary documents and brain storming.
Relevant federal and regional government policies, strategy documents, proclamations,
and reports were critically assessed. The task forces consolidate the two reports at
Semera. The final consolidated report was presented and validated at a regional
stakeholder meeting in Semera town.
Afar region is home to pastoral and agro-pastoral people who largely depend on livestock
production for their livelihood. On the one hand, the ecology in the area is fragile with an
increasing trend of natural resources degradation. Rainfall pattern is changing from time
to time and temperature generally increasing. Such variability in the climate is exposing
the people to the risks of several climate related disasters. According to the National
Meteorological Agency (NMA, 2007) the average maximum temperature in Ethiopia has
been increasing by 0.1ºC per decade. In Afar regional State, drought occurs if the main
rain season (locally known as the karma season which falls from June to September)
fails, and if both the Karma rainy season and the two short rainy seasons (dadaa in
December and sugum from March to April) fail. The resulting prolonged dry season can
give rise to severe drought conditions. In recent times, the duration and intensity of floods
have been increasing particularly in those low-lying areas and around settlements located
near the Awash River. Climate change also aggravates and enhances the speed of bush
encroachment into important ecosystems including grassland. This ecosystem is
important in Afar pastoralists setting especially by providing feed to their livestock.
However this problem is very critical in almost all part of Afar. The most important
encroacher, Prosopies juliflora has invaded the critical resource of the Afar rangelands.
On the other hand climate change has imposed impact among others on agriculture,
energy, water resource, infrastructures like roads, bridges, schools, buildings,
communication services, human and animal health. Their vulnerability level also depends
on the existing social and environmental assets.
Climate stressors and shocks are not new in these contexts of pastoral and agro-pastoral
systems. They are well suited to climate uncertainty and variability, including the
qualities of being adaptable and flexible to changing situations. However, socio-
economic factors like poverty weakens their adaptive capacity and resilience. The Afar
Region is also one of the lowest in the county in terms of household’s saving. More than
92% of the total population is food insecure in terms of calorie intake. Illiteracy rate is
high; health coverage is low reaching only 40%; access to potable water is very low
(35.7%). With increasing periods of drought period the Afar pastoralists are becoming
increasingly vulnerable. Therefore, weak socio-economic assets, as explained by poverty,
iv
weak social infrastructure and institutional capacity are factors for the Afar community to
have relatively weak adaptive capacity to the climate change.
Though the Afar community is relatively vulnerable to climate change, there are
community responses and best practices that can be scaled up to enhance resilience to
climate change. Some of them can also be adopted from other pastoral areas outside of
Afar. These best practices would be useful in agriculture, water, rangeland, energy, health
sector, education, institutional capacity building, infrastructure, management of natural
resources, flood protection, etc.
In the Afar National Regional State, vulnerable households and affected pastoral and
agro-pastoral communities employ a range of measures to cope with the impacts of
climate variability and climate change-induced disasters. The most commonly practiced
household and community measures in the area of resource (herd and range) management
include hay making (grass and straw collection), off-season and opportunistic cultivation,
slaughtering of calves, looping and feeding animals on acacia leaves, settlement around
water points, herd diversification and splitting, area enclosure, negotiation with other
ethnic groups for scares resource utilization, as well as use of traditional medicine for
humans and livestock. However, some strategies that rely on short-term considerations
can worsen environmental degradation and thereby diminish future adaptive capacity and
livelihood options. For example, traditional coping strategies such as charcoal and
firewood selling leads to massive deforestation, making this strategy obsolete in the long
run, and leading to intensification of climate change impacts. Traditional resource sharing
and asset redistribution mechanisms become obsolete strategies if there are too many
losses and too many people in need every year.
The study also recommended the following adaptation measures and strategies:
• Integrated disaster risk reduction and early warning system: discourage unsustainable
livelihood and mismanagement of resources;
• Improve access to information, education and socio-economic services;
• Increased investments in tree planting, promote water harvesting and drought and disease
tolerant crops;
• Paying particular attention to regeneration of degraded pastures and related mitigation
actions;
• Develop irrigation and water harvesting schemes;
• Support environment and climate friendly development initiatives;
• Control and management of diseases;
• Asset protection and livelihood enhancement/diversification;
• Target and empower pastoral women and other vulnerable groups; and
• Maintain the current political good will and institutional capacity
• Build local level capacity
v
Table of Content
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ ii
Section 1.............................................................................................................................. 1
Introduction and background .............................................................................................. 1
1.1 Pastoralism and climate change in Ethiopia ............................................................. 3
1.2 Purpose and methods of the review .......................................................................... 4
Section 2.............................................................................................................................. 6
General Profile of the Afar Regional State ......................................................................... 6
2.1. Biophysical features ................................................................................................. 6
2.2. General climate information .................................................................................... 8
2.3. Demographics and socio-economics........................................................................ 8
2.4. Resource Base and Land Use Systems .................................................................... 9
2.4.1 Natural Resources Base ..................................................................................... 9
2.4.2 Vegetation and land cover ............................................................................... 10
2.5 Livelihoods of Afar Pastoralists.............................................................................. 11
2.6 Mobility................................................................................................................... 12
Section 3............................................................................................................................ 13
Impacts of Climate Change in the Afar Regional State of Ethiopia ................................. 13
3.1. Climate change-induced hazards and impacts ....................................................... 13
3.1.1 Patterns of the local climate (Temperature and precipitation) ......................... 13
3.1.2 Temperature variability and trends .................................................................. 14
3.1.3 Rainfall variability and trends .......................................................................... 14
3.1.4 Persistent and prolonged drought episodes ...................................................... 14
3.1.5 Flooding hazards .............................................................................................. 16
3.2. Impacts on ecosystem ............................................................................................ 17
3.2.1 Bush encroachment .......................................................................................... 17
3.2.2 Rangeland degradation..................................................................................... 18
3.2.3 Feed scarcity .................................................................................................... 19
3.2.4 General water stress ......................................................................................... 20
3.3 Human and livestock diseases ................................................................................ 21
3.3.1 Human diseases ................................................................................................ 21
3.3.2 Animal diseases ............................................................................................... 21
Section 4............................................................................................................................ 24
Identification of vulnerable sectors and undertaking vulnerability assessment ............... 24
4.1 The vulnerable sectors to climate change in Afar Regional State .......................... 24
4.1.1 Agriculture and livestock ................................................................................. 24
4.1.2 Livestock production ........................................................................................... 26
4.1.3 Rangelands ....................................................................................................... 29
4.1.4 Water ................................................................................................................ 31
4.1.5 Health sector .................................................................................................... 31
4.1.6 Education sector ............................................................................................... 33
4.1.7 Access to infrastructure and technology .......................................................... 33
4.1.8 Road Transport................................................................................................. 34
4.1.9 Telecommunications ........................................................................................ 34
vi
4.6.10 Buildings ........................................................................................................ 34
4.1.11 Biodiversity .................................................................................................... 35
4.1.12 Energy ............................................................................................................ 35
Section 5............................................................................................................................ 36
Adaptation capacities of the Afar Communities and Their Environment ......................... 36
5.1 Socio-Economic Factors ......................................................................................... 37
5.1.1 A Preview of Poverty in Afar .......................................................................... 37
5.2 Adaptive Capacity of Agriculture sector ................................................................ 38
5.3 Adaptive Capacity of Health sector ........................................................................ 39
5.3.1 Human health ................................................................................................... 39
5.3.2 Animal health ................................................................................................... 39
5.4 Adaptive Capacity of Education sector ................................................................... 39
5.5 Access to infrastructure........................................................................................... 40
5.6 Terms of trade and market conditions .................................................................... 40
5.7 Institutional capacity ............................................................................................... 40
5.8 Early warning system .............................................................................................. 41
Section 6............................................................................................................................ 42
Identification and prioritization of response measures needed to enhance regional
capacity to climate change adaptation .......................................................................... 42
6.1 Addressing climate change impacts ........................................................................ 42
6.1.1. Livestock ......................................................................................................... 43
6.1.2. Livelihood diversification ............................................................................... 44
6.1.3. Market and infrastructure development .......................................................... 46
6.1.4. Human health and water supply ...................................................................... 47
6.1.5 Natural Resource Management ........................................................................ 47
6.1.6. Conflict Management and Resolution ............................................................ 48
6.1.7. Community capacity building and awareness creation ................................... 48
Section 7............................................................................................................................ 51
Portfolio of good practices and technologies required for the implementation of the
identified of response measures ........................................................................................ 51
7.1 Portfolio of best practice and technologies required ............................................... 51
Section 8............................................................................................................................ 54
Impact assessment of response measures in order to address possible mal-adaptations
....................................................................................................................................... 54
8.1. Emergency interventions ....................................................................................... 56
8.2. Development interventions .................................................................................... 56
9. Suggested adaptation measures and strategies .............................................................. 58
Section 10.......................................................................................................................... 61
Conclusions and recommendations................................................................................... 61
References ......................................................................................................................... 63
vii
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Fig 1: Administrative location of Afar .............................................................................................................................. 9 Table1: Population size and distribution ......................................................................................................................... 10 Table 2: Land cover as percent of total zonal and regional area...................................................................................... 13 Table 3: Summary of community perceptions of major climate change-induced hazards and their impacts .................. 27 Fig.2 Poverty in Ethiopia by Regions, 2004 .................................................................................................................... 29 Table 4: Estimate of Holders Area, Production of Crops grown in the region, 2009/2010 (CSA) .................................. 33 Table 4: Irrigation potential of the basins found in Afar (CSA, 2007) ............................................................................ 34
1
Section 1
Introduction and background
Scientific evidences indicate that due to increased concentration of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, the climate of the earth is changing; temperature is increasing and the
amount and distribution of rainfall is being altered (Houghton et al. 1996). The IPCC
Scientific Assessment suggests that global average temperature may increase between 1.5
and 4.5°C, with a ‘best estimate’ of 2.0°C, in the next century with a doubling of the CO2
concentration in the atmosphere (Houghton et al. 1996)
Africa is already a continent under pressure from climate stresses and is highly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Many areas in Africa are recognized as
having climate that is among the most variable in the world on seasonal and decadal time
scales. African dry lands are characterized by low and erratic precipitation, high
temperatures and high rates of evapo-transpiration. In spite of their environmental
sensitivity, and despite the prevailing negative perception of drylands in terms of
economic and livelihood potentials, these ecosystems have supported human populations
for centuries (UNFCCC, n.d ).
Arid and semi-arid grazing systems in East Africa are seen as highly vulnerable to a
combination of climate change and socio-economic factors (Jones and Thornton, 2006).
More generally, there is an assumption that pastoral areas face not only an increased risk
of drought events, due to increased variability of rainfall but also higher temperatures,
even if mean rainfall is predicted to rise (NAP 2007).
Climate change is already impacting populations, livelihoods and ecosystems in Ethiopia.
Exacerbating poverty and leading to infrastructural breakdown and social insecurity, it
threatens to set back development efforts by decades, profoundly affecting all of us.
Further, the potential for natural environmental hazards and future climate change to
undermine the country’s economic development and social progress is great and growing.
Most of the regions and the people throughout the country are living through a period of
rapid and dramatic changes in ecological and land use patterns. The pace of change in the
pattern of climate and different forms of environmental hazards in the country often
exceeds the capacity of local institutions to adapt to or mitigate the effects of such
changes. On the other hand, the negative impacts associated with climate change are also
compounded by the existence of ‘multiple stressors’ (environmental degradation,
population pressure, etc), which drive vulnerability further. Some of the challenges of
climate change such as environmental sustainability and local and regional food
insecurity are still high on the agenda of Ethiopia’s development goals. It is widely
recognized that failure to respond to the challenges posed by climate change would
impede national efforts aimed at boosting agricultural productivity, and promoting
industrial growth and social transformation.
2
Many studies point to the increased frequency of meteorological drought episodes,
unseasoned flash floods and outbreaks of diseases in the pastoral (lowland) regions of
Ethiopia. Frequent and prolonged droughts have claimed the lives of millions of people,
destroyed crops, and contributed to the death of many animals. On the other hand, major
flood hazards have occurred in different parts of the country in 1988, 1993, 1994, 1995,
1996, 2006 and 2010 leading to loss of life and property. The 2006 catastrophic flood led
to the destruction of huge infrastructure and the death of more than 650 people and the
displacement of more than 35,000 people in Dire Dawa, South Omo and West Shewa
(NMA, 2006). Similar situations experienced over Afar, Western Tigrai, Gambella and
over the low-lying areas of Lake Tana. Spread of Acute Water Borne Diarrhea (AWD)
and malaria outbreaks have caused many more deaths. Inundation of crop fields near
river banks and water bodies, flooding of crop fields on sloppy farm lands and water
logging on clay type of soils on valley farm lands and the loss of livestock and property
were all experienced. Ethiopia’s response to climate change today will bear directly on
the development prospects of a large part of the country’s areas and populations.
Current evidences in Ethiopia strongly suggest that the key drivers of rural development
and economic and social transformations are adversely affected by climate change.
Poverty reducing and agricultural (crop and livestock) production boosting development
activities are particularly vulnerable because they are usually long term and aimed at
helping vulnerable populations that are already exposed to greater relative risks because
of their geographical locations, existing socio-economic and unstable environmental
conditions. Recent drought episodes and unseasoned flood and disease outbreaks in the
pastoral areas of Ethiopia are stark reminders of how poverty reduction, food security and
pastoral livelihood strategies are still largely dependent on the climate system and
vulnerable to its seasonal variability and long term changes.
So far, efforts in Ethiopia to respond to the problem of growing climate change-induced
hazards in the pastoral areas have been promising and expanding through time. Despite
this, the scale and intensity of climate change-induced hazards (particularly drought,
unseasoned floods, disease outbreaks, expansion of invasive bush species) is growing fast
and the magnitude of damages from such climatic and natural hazards continue to rise.
Recent flood hazards in Afar, North Wello and South Omo, forest fires in Guji, droughts
in Afar and Somali regions, the aggressive encroachment of invasive weeds and bush in
Afar have all demonstrated the urgency of addressing the climate problem and devising
adequate adaptation and mitigation plans and effective institutional and logistical
capacity in the hazard prone pastoral areas of the country.
Unlike the case of developed nations that are compelled to drastically curb their carbon
emissions, the practical measure expected from Ethiopia is to cope with the threat of
climate change through the development of locally responsive and nationally appropriate
adaptation and mitigation plans and practical measures, while lobbying for and seeking
international solidarity and assistance in the form of financial, technical and technological
resources. Adaptation to climatic variability may not be new for the Ethiopian lowland
pastoralists as there has always been variability in the weather patterns. The challenge,
however, is to respond to both rapid and strong change in the current climate system. In
3
the pastoral areas, it is easy to envision a range of coping strategies in times of stress. The
problem, however, is unless a diverse portfolio of location specific and sustainable
adaptation and locally appropriate mitigation options are made available, those available
to the poor and which are friendly to the environment are likely to be more restricted and
less resilient.
1.1 Pastoralism and climate change in Ethiopia
About 12% of Ethiopia's 74 million people are pastoralists (CSA, 2008), herding their
livestock in the arid and semi-arid lowlands that constitute about 63% of the country's
land mass (MoARD, 2008). These areas are prone to rainfall variability, extreme drought
and flash floods. The people in the pastoral lowlands are mainly pastoralists and agro-
pastoralists who have an immediate daily dependence on climate sensitive livelihoods
and natural resources (pasture and water), and they are among the most resource-deprived
and geographically marginalized. In response to changes in climatic conditions, scarcity
of natural resources and the magnitude of hazards in the pastoral areas have been
intensifying through time. The harmful impacts of climate change are also compounded
by the lack of resources, economic and social infrastructures and institutional capacity.
The simple relationship that used to exist between the social and natural environment in
the pastoral areas has become complicated due to the enhanced demands (arising from
high population growth) and reduced supplies (depletion of the natural resource bases and
lack of access to critical resources). As the intensification of environmental hazards was
taking place gradually in the past, pastoralists had adequate time to adapt to the new
circumstances. Since recently, however, the pace of those changes has gained momentum
and the adaptation mechanisms of the past have become less effective, inadequate and
even obsolete.
In pastoral areas of Ethiopia, climate change adds a new and largely uncertain dimension
to the development problem by compounding the risks of natural hazards and
complicating existing social and economic imbalances. It will add to the burden of those
who are already poor and vulnerable by affecting their livelihood pattern and strategies
and triggering food, feed, water and social insecurity. It is widely recognized that failure
to respond to the challenges posed by climate change on pastoralists and pastoral
livelihoods would impede efforts aimed at reducing pastoral poverty and insecurity.
Building adaptive social protection and ecosystem resilience through enhancing and
securing pastoralists access to strategic resources (such as range and water) and socio-
economic opportunities (health, education, information, finance and technology) is basic
and essential if they are to adequately prepare and effectively respond to the stresses and
effects of climate change and weather extremes. Yet, as this brief review shows most
pastoral coping strategies and their resilience and capacities to adverse environmental
situations have been eroded as a result of their historical, geographical and social
marginalization. Today, the vulnerability of pastoral communities to climate risks and
4
shocks is thus more a consequence of their marginalization than climate change per se,
although the former will obviously exacerbate the latter. This report aims to examine the
Afar pastoralists’ vulnerability to climate change, assess local and institutional adaptation
strategies and technologies, and document best practices and existing institutional
arrangements for adapting to climate change in the Region. It concludes by providing a
list of suggested adaptation measures and strategies to guide future climate change
interventions.
1.2 Purpose and methods of the review
Ethiopia is vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is
likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some disasters and extreme weather
events. Global warming may worsen existing social and economic challenges in Ethiopia,
particularly for those regions and communities dependent on resources that are sensitive
to climate change. It is already clear that weather variability is affecting pastoral
livelihoods in lowland Ethiopia. It is also a threat to achieving the country’s Millennium
development goals which call for eradicating hunger and poverty, achieving universal
primary education, promoting gender equality, reducing child mortality, improving
maternal health, combating diseases and ensuring environmental sustainability. The
negative impact of global warming on the viability of these goals cannot be understated
in Ethiopia.
Government response to climate variability and climate change-induced hazards in
Ethiopia is promising and expanding through time. Past and current development and
disaster interventions in the country have led to improved social service provision,
disaster prevention and management, ecological restoration in some areas, asset
protection and livelihood enhancement/diversification, etc. In this regard, increased
capacity to manage future climate change and weather extremes can reduce the
magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, lead to better
resilience and enhanced adaptation capacity. In this case, the government of Ethiopia has
adopted policies, strategies and action programmes which address climate change directly
and indirectly. In the pastoral areas, the government executes different programs from
emergency aid and productive safety net programs, disaster prevention and management,
asset protection and livelihood diversification, to conflict management and resolution.
However, government response has to be supported by further research and knowledge
management, enhance financial, technological and logistical support and institutional
capacity building.
In order to prepare the report, Federal and Regional task forces were established. Joint
workshops were held in Addis Ababa and at Semera and discussions held on the Terms
of Reference and other procedural issues. Accordingly, the two task forces prepared two
climate change assessment reports on their own. The task forces met at Semera town to
consolidate the two reports. The final consolidated report was presented and validated at
5
a regional stakeholder meeting in Semera town. While preparing the report, the task
forced relied heavily on secondary data, brain storming and expert opinion. Secondary
data has been collected from published and unpublished federal and regional government
documents and other empirical studies on relevant topics. Relevant federal and regional
government policies, strategy documents, proclamations, and reports were critically
assessed. The compilation of the report is also based on an intensive review of available
research reports, internet browsing and informal discussion with experts and
representatives of relevant civil society and government offices.
Although attempts were made to make a much more comprehensive review based on the
available data sources and literature, there is dearth of information on the patterns of local
climate and the localized impacts and response measures in the Afar Regional State.
While substantial information exists on the impacts of past and current climate variability
and indigenous coping mechanisms, not much work has been done on the projected
impacts of future climate change on the pastoral areas of Ethiopia particularly in Afar
Region.
6
Section 2
General Profile of the Afar Regional State
2.1. Biophysical features
Geographically, the Afar Regional state is located in the northeastern part of Ethiopia.
The total geographical area of the region is about 270,000 km2 (CSA, 2008). It is
geographically located between 39o34’ and 42
o28’ East Longitude and 8
o49’and
14o30’North Latitude. The region shares common international boundaries with the State
of Eritrea in the north-east and Djibouti in the east, as well as regional boundaries with
the Regional States of Tigray in the north-west, Amhara in the south-west, Oromia in the
south and Somali in the south-east.
Administratively, the Afar National Regional State consists of 5 administrative zones
(sub-regions), 32 weredas (administrative districts), 28 towns, and 401 rural and urban
kebeles. Afar is the origin of human race, where a 4.4 million years old humanoid is
recently discovered. The Afar Depression, also known as the Danakil depression, is a part
of Great East African Rift Valley, and it is the lowest point in Ethiopia. It is also one of
the lowest elevation in Africa and is located in the north of the Afar Region. The southern
part consists of the valley of the Awash River, which empties into a string of lakes along
the Ethiopian-Djibouti border. Other notable landmarks include the Awash and Yangudi
Rasa National Parks.
The region has a number of perennial rivers that include Awash, Mille, Kesem Kebena,
Awura, Gulina, Dewie, Borkena, Telalak, and numerous seasonal rivers that flows to
different basins. In the region there are also a number of lakes, such as Lake Asahle,,
Lake Afdera, Lake Abe, and Lake Gemeri are some examples of the region lake.(regional
atlas, 2009 )
The northern part of Afar Region around the lower Danakil Plain is predominantly a
semi-desert with thorny species of shrubs and acacia; further south in the Awash valley,
steppe vegetation is dominant. Both ecological stages are facing bush encroachment with
Prosopis juliflora (Woyane), which drive out more nutritive browsing vegetation
(Guinand, 2000; Piguet, 2001).
7
Fig 1: Administrative location of Afar
Most of the region is flat land. The altitude of the region ranges from 116 meter below
sea level (where one of the highest temperatures (500C) on earth has been recorded) to
1600 meters above sea level. The lowland areas of Afar are generally below 1600 meters
above sea level. The highest peak, mount Mussa-Alle is just 2063 meters above sea level.
The temperature of Afar varies from 250C during the rainy season (September-March) to
480C during the dry season (March-September). The average annual rainfall registered
for 11 years at Dubti station was 187.9mm.
The Awash River, Mille and Logia which are tributaries of the Awash River traverse the
region. Abbe Bil, Afambo and Adebel lakes, which are connected to the last section of
the river Awash, are found in the region. They form an important habitat for river and
Lake Fauna. In terms of mineral resources, Salt, Potash, Sulfur, Manganese, Bentonite,
Aluminum, Marble, Gypsum and Petroleum are potential major resources of the region.
Tendaho geothermal energy is the most promising power source for electricity. The state
has also a plausible source for solar energy.
The Awash National Park, Yangudi-Rasa Natural Reserve and the Dallol Depression are
expressions of Ethiopia's desert beauty. Some of the attractions of this game reserve
include Abyssinian wild ass, Grevy's zebra, beisa oryx, crocodiles, lions, grater kudu,
wild (bat eared) fox, wildcat, cheetah, Grant's gazelle, and warthog. Besides, Hadar,
where 4.4 million years old humanoid (called "Lucy", the Australopithecus afarensis)
skeletal remains recently discovered is found in the Afar Regional State.
8
The Afar Depression, a plate tectonic triple junction is found in the Afar Regional State.
This geologic feature is one of earth's great active volcanic areas. Due to this volcanic
activity the floor of the depression is composed of lava, mostly basalt. The continuous
process of volcanism results in the occurrence of major minerals including potash, sulfur,
salt, bentonite, and gypsum. In addition to these minerals, there are also promising
geothermal energy sources and hot springs in different areas of the region. Most of the
region's mineral potential is found in Dalol, Brhale and Afdera weredas of Zone Two.
Elidar, Dubti and Mile in Zone one and Gewane in Zone Three also have some mineral
potentials.
2.2. General climate information
Afar is characterized by an arid and semi-arid climate with low and erratic rainfall.
Rainfall is bi-modal throughout the region with a mean annual rainfall below 500 mm in
the semi-arid western escarpments decreasing to 150 mm in the arid zones to the east.
Afar is increasingly drought prone. The region receives three rainy seasons. The main
rain, karma accounts for 60% of annual rainfall and occurs from mid June to mid-
September. This is followed by rainy showers in mid-December called dadaa and a
minor rainy season during March – April called sugum. Disruptions on the performance
of any rainy season will impact on the availability of pasture and water as well as the
overall food security situation of the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities (PARDB,
2007, Afar DPSIP first draft)..
2.3. Demographics and socio-economics
Afar Regional State is populated with roughly 1.4 million people (CSA, 2008). Nearly 87
percent of the population are rural mainly dependent on pastoral and agro-pastoral
livelihood systems. Of the total population in the regional state, women constitute about
44%. While men constitute 57%.In terms of age distribution, about 43 percent of the
population is young, below the age of 15 years. The region has an estimated density of
14.59 people per square kilometer. For the entire region 247,284 households were
counted, which results in an average for the Region of 5.7 persons to a household, with
urban households having on average 3.9 and rural households 6.1 people.
In terms of ethnic composition, the major ethnic compositions are Afar 91.8%, Amhara
4.5%, Argoba 0.92%, Tigray 0.82%, Oromo 0.7%, Wolaita 0. 45%, and Hadiya 0.013%,
(CSA, 2008). In terms of religious composition, the over-whelming majorities (about
96%) of the regional population are Muslim, 3.86% Orthodox, 0.43% Protestants, 0.09%
Catholics and others constitute 0.02%. The Afarigna language is predominantly (90.8%)
spoken in the region.
9
Table1: Population size and distribution
Region/Zone Total Male Female Urban Rural
Afar Region 1,411,092 786,338 624,754 188,973 1,222,119
Zone 1 421,790 230,573 191,217 82,827 338,963
Zone 2 351,431 196,137 155,294 26,190 325,241
Zone 3 198,628 108,903 89,725 58,267 140,361
Zone 4 255,542 145,471 110,071 9,430 246,112
Zone 5 183,701 105, 254 78, 447 12,259 71,442
Source: CSA (2008)
2.4. Resource Base and Land Use Systems
2.4.1 Natural Resources Base
The Afar Region covers 10% of the total area of the country and 29% of the pastoral
lowlands (Yirgalem, 2001:5). Though most of the Region is arid and semi-arid, it is able to
support the population of the Afar pastoralists mainly due to the presence of Awash River
which is the life-belt of the Afar people and their livestock population. Moreover, most of the
large-scale farms in the Region and subsistence irrigated crop cultivation have been possible
due to the Awash and other rivers in the region.
Some studies have indicated the presence of other natural resources including 18 perennial
and 19 seasonal rivers, 26 major forest sites, 17 lakes and a number of mineral sites (Yacob
et al., 2000:11; MCE, 2001). Natural resources such as water and forage vegetation play a
key role in providing fodder and water points for livestock production in the Region. The
wetlands, which are found along the Awash River, are classified as seasonal swamps and
marshy areas. The seasonal swamps found in Zones 2, 3 and 4 serve as dry season grazing
areas (MCE, 2001:43). The Awash River floods the Afar land during the months of July to
September due to the heavy rainfall in the head water areas. Pastoralists move away from the
flood plains usually to the escarpments on the west or to the Alledeghi plain on the east.
The vegetation types, which are the main stay of the pastoral livestock economy, comprise
riverine woodland, bush land, shrub land and grassland. Currently livestock get their feed
from bush land, shrub lands, riverine forests, grassland and seasonal marshes and swamps
(MCE, 2001). However, “land use and vegetation cover survey” carried out by Afar
rangelands and water development study estimated that 70 % of the region is barren land and
only slightly less than 30% of the area is considered potentially productive rangeland (MCE,
2001). This implies the limited feed resources from these areas, given the increase in
livestock population and human population.
10
2.4.2 Vegetation and land cover
The major land cover patterns are closely related to patterns of rainfall and temperature, with
local variations due to soil and drainage factors. In the southern and central parts of the
western piedmont hills and plains, dense shrub land/woodland changes to open shrub land
with decreasing altitude and rainfall. To the north with decreasing rainfall in Zones 2 and 4,
the vegetation is lower and less dense (ANRS, 2004). About 14.8% of the total land area of
the region is covered by grassland; 31.5 % shrub land, 1.7% woodland and 0.11% forest
land. Whereas water bodies and wet land together account for 1.37% of the total land, the
vast area of the region, 49.6%, is an exposed soil, sand or rock. 7% of the region’s land
is also estimated to be cultivable land. The region is one of the least developed regions in
the country having 56% of the inhabitants living below the line for absolute poverty. The
service and infrastructure condition is far below satisfactory.
Along the middle Awash River floodplain dense riverine woodland and swamp are found
where it has not been cleared for irrigated agriculture. Below Dubti where the Awash River
divides into a number of distributaries to form the Awash delta, a mosaic of dense woodland,
permanent and seasonal swamps occur. Much of this has been reclaimed for irrigated
agriculture (ANRS, 2004). The riverine plains and interfluves of the Mile, Logiya, and Uwa
Rivers in the West-Central Plains; Mile, Chifra, Ewa and Gulina Weredas in Zones 1 and 4
have extensive areas of grassland. Extensive areas of grasslands also occur on the wide sand
plains in Amibara and Gewane Weredas of Zone 3 (ANRS, 2004).
Table 2: Land cover as percent of total zonal and regional area
Zone Cultivated Grassland Shrub
land Woodland Natural
forest Riverine
forest Exposed
soil, and or
rock
Zone 1 1.2 15 24 2 0 0 55
Zone 2 0.1 10 27 0 0.4 0 62
Zone 3 0.4 19 38 4 0 1 36
Zone 4 0.0 16 45 2 0 0 38
Zone 5 0.0 26 56 2 0 1 15
Region
Total 0.1 15 32 2 0.1 0 50
Source: Afar National Regional State (ANRS, 2004:19)
The Afar rangelands and water development study also reported “almost all the land in the
Afar region is classified as rangeland which serves as a source of forage for the livestock”
(MCE, 2001:8). As depicted in the table 2 above some 50 percent of the Region is covered
with bare soil, sand or rock, with 32 percent in shrub land and 15 percent in grassland. In the
eastern part of the Region much of this grassland comprises annual grasses so that much of
the year bare soil is the dominant land cover (ANRS, 2004).
11
2.5 Livelihoods of Afar Pastoralists
About 90% of the regional populations in Afar base their livelihood on livestock rearing
with limited irrigation agriculture along the river basins and low-lying riverine areas. The
Afar keep multiple species and multi-purpose stock. They rear multiple species including
cattle, camels, goats, sheep and donkeys (Ayele, 1986; Ali, 1996; Getachew, 2001). The
proportion of the different species varies with the vegetation cover of the Region. In parts
of the Region, in the escarpment and around the perennial rivers where the grazing
resource is relatively good, cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock. In the
drier part of the Region camel and goats make the prominent parts of the herd
composition with mainly camels in the extreme arid areas (MCE, 2001). An extensive
livestock production system has been the predominant livelihood system, which provides
subsistence for Afar pastoral households. It supplies goods for household consumption
(milk, meat, butter, hides, skins, etc). Live animals are also used in transactions such as
barter, and sources of cash from the market.
In general, the Afar engage in subsistence livestock production not only for its economic
value but also for the social and cultural values as well as life it renders to kinship groups
and the Afar society. Pastoral values are a dominant feature of their social and cultural
life (Getachew, 2001). Therefore, among the pastoral Afar, livestock is the most
important economic factor influencing all other socio-political and cultural activities. In
addition they are used as a store of value and monetary, and as basis of enforcing social
ties.
However, as indicated earlier, in the past five decades the Afar subsistence pastoral
system has been under pressure due to climate change and other internal and external
factors. the Afar pastoralists face various problems that include recurrent drought and
famine; flash floods; disease outbreaks; bush encroachment; loss of livestock, and
impoverishment; pastoral conflict; population growth, etc.
The Afar people have derived the bulk of their food from milk, meat and butter in the
past good days., the pastoral Afar have made a shift towards grain as a major component
of their diet. This is partly attributed to (i) insufficient milk yield and loss of livestock
due to above mentioned factors, (ii) their gradual integration into market whereby they
exchange animal and animal products for grain and, (iii) exposure to relief food provided
in the form of grain during the past famine crises and the resultants changes in food
habits.
Climatic and socio-economic pressures have led to the increased dependence of
pastoralists on external assistance. Moreover, these processes have led pastoral groups to
take up other non-pastoral pursuits such as practicing crop cultivation; wage labor,
charcoal making, and firewood selling that are new lines of occupation which pastoralists
resort to when the pastoral household income falls. And some still, fortunate ones
maintain their herds through grazing alliance (i.e. stock association with neighboring
farming population or with bond friends) and engaging in animal trading (Getachew,
12
2001; Ali, 1997). As food supply from livestock production declines and drought cycle
has increased, pastoral households are gradually less able to cope with recurrent food
shortages and to recover after drought episodes. Consequently pastoralists, particularly
poor households and those who lost their stock and assets rely on external food
assistance. For instance during the 2003 drought, 204,115 (i.e. 18% of the total) of the
Afar people were chronically drought affected and food insecure who required not only
food assistance but also basic services such as water, health and nutrition as well as stock
recovery (Beruk, 2003:11).
2.6 Mobility
The traditional Afar pastoralist system involves mobility between dry and wet season
pastures within a radius of approximately 50 kilometers. In times of drought the perennial
Awash River with its fertile riverbanks and some smaller rivers such as Logia, Mile,
Whama, Anderkalu, Borkena, Jara, Ataye can offer some security as an alternate source
of water and grazing. Usually the Afar pastoralists do not see water as the main problem
that makes them move. It is rather the circumstance and the fact that prolonged drought
periods exhaust grazing areas near water points and animals have to cover ever-longer
distances for fodder. The northern Afar people, living in arid desert-like environment are
relatively more mobile than their southern affiliates and depend more upon water drawn
from shallow hand dug wells along rivers which usually run dry after a certain period of
time.
When the main rain stops in the highlands and floods recede to the banks of the Awash River,
the Afar move down to the flood plains to provide their livestock with flash grass and
abundant water resources. Therefore, the traditional Afar pastoralism is sustained by
pastoralists’ mobility between the flood plains and the wet season grazing territories away
from the flood plains and river banks (Yacob et al., 2001). However, over the past decades
this pattern of mobility has been affected by changing climatic circumstances and other
socio-economic pressures.
13
Section 3
Impacts of Climate Change in the Afar Regional State of Ethiopia
3.1. Climate change-induced hazards and impacts
Although all pastoral regions in Ethiopia are highly prone to the adverse impacts of climate
change, the problem is more prevalent in the northeastern lowlands of the country. Afar region is
home to pastoral and agro-pastoral people who largely depend on livestock production for their
livelihood. On the one hand, the ecology in the area is fragile with an increasing trend of natural
resources degradation. Rainfall pattern is changing from time to time and temperature generally
increasing. Such variability in the climate is exposing the people to the risks of several climate
related disasters. Because of erratic and unreliable rainfall the people are exposed to drought and
chronic food shortages, risks of flooding hazards, and conflict over increasingly scarce and fragile
resources.
3.1.1 Patterns of the local climate (Temperature and precipitation)
The climate of the Afar region is semi-arid and arid, with the aridity increasing from west
to east. Average annual temperature ranges from 23 ºC to 33 ºC. The hottest months are
May, June and July, with maximum temperatures reaching more than 45 ºC. In the dry
and desert areas like the Danakil Depression, the temperature usually reaches up to 50°C.
As most other lowland regions, Afar receives a bimodal rain with a mean annual rainfall
of below 500 mm per annum. The northern parts of the region receive the lowest
amount of rainfall of less than 150 mm per year. The region receives its main rain
season, locally known as the karma from June to September and two short rainy seasons
known as the dadaa (in December) and Sugum (from March to April). Since the last
decades the sugum usually stops and the karma rains became extremely irregular, too short
and erratic in space and time; the sugum and the dadaa rains increasingly stopped. . (Oxfam,
2005). About sixty percent of the annual rainfall is received in July-September, and about
20% in March-April.
According to the “woody biomass inventory and strategic planning study” (ANRS,
2004), since the last decades the occurrence of rainfall was highly erratic and uneven in
its distribution (in time and space). The total amount of rain varies greatly from year to
year resulting in severe droughts in some years. Moreover, temperatures are high
throughout the region and in most of the months in the year.
14
3.1.2 Temperature variability and trends
There has been a general trend of atmospheric warming in Ethiopia. According to the National
Meteorological Agency (NMA, 2007) the average minimum temperature in Ethiopia has been
increasing by 0.37ºC per decade in the last sixty years. In the Ethiopian highland, the temperature
has been increasing by 0.3ºC per decade (Muna, 2006). In the southern lowland regions of
Borena, Guji and South Omo temperature has increased by 0.4ºC in per decade in the period
1950-2000 (Aklilu & Alebachew, 2009). Thus, compared to the national average as well as the
highland regions in the country, the temperature increase in the lowland regions has been much
faster with bigger implications. Coupled with declining and unreliable patterns in the rainfall,
increasing temperatures in Afar will exacerbate the water and feed shortages thus making the
environment more and more vulnerable to increased aridity and degradations.
3.1.3 Rainfall variability and trends
An analysis of the average annual rainfall trends in the past four or five decades in Ethiopia
shows a more or less constant trend (NMA, 2007). However, an increasing trend of rainfall was
observed in central Ethiopia while an overall declining trend was recorded in the water stressed
northern and southern lowland regions.
In Afar, it is common sense that rainfall patterns are perceived to have changed over the past
decades, particularly in terms of timing and duration. The frequency of drought is viewed as
increasing particularly over the past two decades. Some people argued that the changes have
become more noticeable since the major famine in 1984; years of ‘good rainfall’ are seen as a
distant memory. Except in more dry years, changes in the seasonality, distribution and regularity
of rainfall were more of a concern than the overall amount of rainfall. The main rainy season is
also seen as becoming progressively shorter – it now starts later and finishes earlier than it used to
be – and the rains in general are becoming more unpredictable.
3.1.4 Persistent and prolonged drought episodes
Of all the environmental and socio-economic shocks and stressors people are facing,
drought is the most common in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. The eastern lowlands of
Ethiopia are vulnerable to drought and there have been notable droughts in this part of the
country throughout human history (Haile, 1988; Taffesse, 2001; Getachew, 2001;
Pankhurst, 1985; Webb & Braun 1994). Previous droughts and the frequency of rainfall
deviation from the average suggest that drought occur every 3-5 and 6-8 years in the arid
and semi-arid regions of Ethiopia and every 8-10 years for the whole country (Haile
1988, 90). Many (including Haile, 1988; Funk et. al. 2005) believe that Ethiopian drought
is caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (a coupled air and ocean phenomenon with
global weather implications), along with sea surface temperature anomalies in the
Southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans combined with anthropogenic activities affecting
15
rainfall distribution and temperature conditions in Ethiopia by displacing and weakening
the rain-producing air masses and raising surface temperature.
Drought has thus been widely recognized as a major climatic hazard and a key development and
environmental challenge in the Afar Regional State of Ethiopia. If asked, Afar elders can easily
make lists of major droughts over the past 30–50 years, with detailed accounts of the effects and
implications. While opinions vary on the severity and frequency of drought in the historical past,
recent reports and community opinions show that drought hazards have increased in frequency,
intensity and magnitude over the recent decades and have adversely impacted on food, feed and
water security and the sustainable livelihoods of Afar pastoralists.
In Afar regional State, drought occur if the main rain season (locally known as the karma season
which fall from June to September) fail, and if both the Karma rainy season and the two short
rainy seasons (dadaa in December and sugum from March to April) fail the resulting prolonged
dry season can give rise to severe drought conditions. Although drought is not a new phenomenon
in the eastern and northeastern lowland regions, for the Afar communities the last ten years have
seen more frequent and catastrophic droughts.
In sum, although drought has been a common problem in the Afar Region of Ethiopia, it is the
increasing frequency and severity of drought, brought on by climate change that has brought the
people to their knees. Not even old men and women in the region can remember a drought as
severe and as frequent as the most recent ones. The idea that increasingly unpredictable weather
patterns will make such droughts more common is something the Afar elders find difficult to
contemplate. The following summary points clearly show the increased frequency and magnitude
of drought in Afar in recent years:
• Frequent minor/localized droughts and severe droughts occurring once every other year;
• Erratic and uneven rains;
• General water stress and scarcity;
• Increased heat waves and windy days;
• A gradual reduction of grass and tree cover;
• The formation of localized deserts in many areas and villages;
• The disappearance of some important indigenous tree species with medicinal and
nutritional value for humans and animals.
Drought impacts include decreased pasture availability, leading to pasture shortage,
overgrazing, and land degradation; decreased water availability, leading to water
shortages and travel over long distances by women and children in search of water;
decreased livestock disease resistance; decreased livestock productivity, in terms of milk
and meat; emaciation and death of livestock; decreased livestock prices and household
incomes; crop failure in agro-pastoral areas; food insecurity and malnutrition, mostly
affecting children, pregnant women, the elderly and the disabled; abnormal community
mobility; increased school drop-out due to community migration in search of pasture and
16
water; interruption of development activities; increased human diseases ; and increased
competition and conflicts over scarce resources.
3.1.5 Flooding hazards
In recent years, flood hazards in Ethiopia have become more frequent and of increasing severity.
For instance, floods in 2006 have battered huge portions of eastern, southern and northern
Ethiopia. Floods that have also occurred in 2007 and 2008 have caused huge havoc on the
livelihoods of many rural people. Recently repeated flash floods in the northern and eastern parts
of Ethiopia have led to the loss of many lives and the destruction of household property and
environmental resources.
In Ethiopia, the issue of flood continues to be of growing concern to people residing in lowlands,
near rivers , as well as towns located at the foot of hills and mountains. Flood disasters are
occurring more frequently, and having an ever more dramatic impact on Ethiopia in terms of the
costs on lives, livelihoods and environmental resources. Due to global climate change and local
environmental pressures, the occurrence and frequency of flood hazards and the magnitude of
destruction from floods is increasing through time.
Available evidences suggest that since the 1980s the Afar Region has been affected by floods.
However, in recent times, the duration and intensity of floods have been increasing particularly in
those low-lying areas and around settlements located near the Awash River. Many people
associate flood and flash flood hazards in Afar with the torrential rainfall occurring in the central
highland areas of the country. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO,
1994), flash floods can be categorized into three:
• Human-induced flash floods caused by the reduction of the stability of catchments or
changes in its run-off, storage or hydraulic characteristics;
• Flash floods generated by sudden release of impounded water induced mainly by the failure
of a dam or other manmade or natural barriers;
• Heavy rainfall generated flash floods.
Flash floods are aggravated over steep channel slopes with limited valley storage. They have the
potential of causing land or mudslides. The flood hazards in Afar are the combined result of its
topography, land cover, runoff from highland and intensive torrential rainfall condition. Some
heavy rainfalls generated from thunderstorm bearing clouds have higher probability to cause
heavy rainfall and higher runoff. Generally, the increase in the destructive nature of floods in the
Afar Region of Ethiopia can be partly attributed to climate change/variability and unsustainable
practices from increased population (livestock and human) pressures on the environment.
The Awash River basin is mostly located in the arid lowlands of Afar Region in the northeastern
part of Ethiopia. It frequently floods in August/September following heavy rains originating from
Southern, Central and Northern Ethiopian highlands and escarpment areas. A number of tributary
17
rivers draining from the highlands can increase the water level of the Awash River in a short
period of time and cause flooding in the low-lying alluvial plains along the river course.
Certain areas which frequently, almost seasonally, get inundated are marshlands such as the area
between the towns of Debel and Gewane in the vicinity of Lake Yardi and the lower plains
around Dubti down to Lake Abe in the administrative Zone 1 of the Region. The other area that
often floods is the southern part of administrative Zone 3, about 30 kilometers north of Awash
town in the vicinity of Melka Werer. According to a report by the UNDP, in 2009 flooding from
the Awash river destroyed about 9,500 ha of cropped farmland, both private and state owned (~
5,000 ha in Zone 3, ~ 4,000 ha in Zone 1, and ~ 230 ha around Metehara, Oromyia Region). The
then Federal Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission estimate put the number of
affected population above 24,000. The 2009 flooding along the Awash River in Afar was mainly
caused by heavy rainfall in the eastern highlands and escarpment areas of North Shewa and Welo
and not because of heavy rain in the upper watershed areas (i.e. upstream of the Koka Reservoir).
Over the years soil and water run-off in the escarpment areas has steadily increased as a result of
deforestation, the most serious environmental degradation in the escarpment areas being caused
by overpopulation in the highlands. Tributaries to Awash River such as Kessem, Kebena,
Hawadi, Ataye Jara, Mille and Logiya rivers contributed most to the lowland flooding in Afar.
The vulnerability of the population living along the Awash River and in the marshlands has also
been exacerbated due to seemingly inappropriate settlement patterns in these flood prone areas in
recent years. During the dry season the riverside areas are the only places with grazing land and
are essential for the survival of humans and livestock. In August and September 2010, high
rainfall over the Awash catchment and the Amhara and Afar regions has led to flash flooding
which has washed away bridges, residential places ,destroyed crop fields , killed animals,
destroyed schools (example Galifage School) and displaced people.
3.2. Impacts on ecosystem
3.2.1 Bush encroachment
Bush encroachment is the invasion of aggressive and undesired thorny and woody species
resulting in an imbalance of the grass-bush ratio and a decrease in biodiversity and the carrying
capacity. It causes severe economic and ecological losses for pastoral communities in Afar.
Previous studies and official reports from the regional administration offices in the Afar Regional
State confirm that bush encroachment is the most important factor hampering sustainable
livestock production, food security and improved livelihoods. Accordingly, the problem is
becoming a threat to feed and food security in the area.
The main feed resources used for livestock feeding in the region are natural pastures (herbaceous
vegetation composed mainly of grasses and forbs and browses (shrubs, tree leaves and pods).
Although different grass species are valued as the most important species in terms of palatability
18
and enhancing high milk and butter production of cattle when they are consumed, in many parts
of the Regional state, Prosopis julifiora (locally called woyane) infestation is so dominant that
almost all other plants are suppressed and do not grow anymore. Prosopis tends to form dense
impenetrable thicket.. Hence, livestock are not able to graze underneath and have difficulties in
movement and accessing the river water.
The northern part of Afar Region around the lower Danakil Plain is predominantly a semi-desert
with thorny species of shrubs and acacias; further south in the Awash valley, steppe vegetation is
dominant. Both ecological stages are facing bush encroachment with Prosopis juliflora, which
drive out more nutritive browsing vegetation. It has invaded large grazing areas in Dulecha,
Amibara, Gewane and Buremodaitu weredas(zone3 ) and Mile, Dubti and Afambo weredas (zone
1). In addition, most important palatable grass and tree species for livestock are replaced by
unwanted plant species like Partheniun hystrophorus, Tribulus terrestris, and other tree species
such as Acacia nubica
Despite the pastoralists’ indigenous mechanism of coping with the problems of feed and water
shortage during the dry season and during drought years, the loss of specific feed varieties and
their replacement by less palatable and hardy bush species is causing massive feed and livelihood
insecurity in the area. With the increasing depletion of grasses, pastoralists tend to lop the leaves
and branches of trees to feed their animals. Acacia pods are also used as important sources of dry
season feed for goats, camels and cattle.
Although there are many other potential drivers of bush encroachment, including, overgrazing,
and consequent land degradation, the contribution of changing weather patterns (such as
increasing rainfall intensity, more frequent droughts, increasing temperatures, and shortening
rainy seasons that prevent grass growth and propagation) could be significant and should be
explored further.
3.2.2 Rangeland degradation
Significant climatic variability continues to be a common phenomenon in the
northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia including the Afar. Frequent and persistent droughts,
unpredictable and variable rainfall and temperatures are considered normal climatic
conditions, especially in the arid and semi arid pastoral lands. Ecosystems within
rangelands are characterized by low-stature vegetation because of temperature and
moisture restrictions. Vegetation tends to be sparse but the sparse grass/herbaceous cover
is efficiently harvested by grazers and in many cases, episodic fires are important for
providing new and lush growth for grazers. However, recent changes in the climate
system have brought about rapid changes which have affected natural resources, as well
as the cultures and life styles of the pastoralists in the lowland regions. The rangelands,
which constitute a major renewable resource in a highly vulnerable, diverse and difficult
environment, have been most affected by these changes.
19
Rangeland degradation is the most serious challenge for pastoral livelihood in afar.
Major reduction in the quantity and nutritional quality of the vegetation available for
grazing in the rangelands as well as expansion of localized deserts and barren areas were
reported. Reported causes of degradation include climatic conditions causing drought and
arid conditions and human factors leading to the overuse of natural resources. The effects
of climate change and human pressures on the soil include a depletion of soil nutrients,
with a decline in water retention, which ultimately causes a breakdown in soil structure
and inability of some local breeds (known grass and seed varieties) to cope with such
changes.
The pattern of such changes in the Afar Regional State and within the five administrative
zones in the region varies from place to place with the seasonality and variability of the
climate system, the movements and concentration of grazing animals, with seasonal
conditions and with the varying vulnerability of the land itself. In some locations such as
those in Amibara and Gewane Weredas, where years of drought induced overgrazing and
hence led to important land degradation, infestation with prosopis julifiora has a strong
negative impact on grazing availability. Generally, the continuing or accelerating course
of rangeland degradation in the Afar Regional state shows common features, including:
• Deterioration in the quantity, quality and persistence of native pastures, generally
associated with a diminution of plant cover, but also with invasion by shrubs of
low pastoral value; frequently unpalatable and of little economic value or
practical use;
• Structural changes in the plant cover, notably the loss of shrubs and trees, partly
through browsing, but also through gathering of fuel wood and clearing and
burning for opportunistic farming;
• Changes in soil surface conditions, notably compaction through trampling by
livestock, leading to deterioration in soil - plant - water relationships and reduced
germination rate, particularly of the palatable species;
• Additional processes of sand drift siltation, leading to further destruction of the
vegetation and commonly to deterioration of surface and shallow groundwater
supplies.
3.2.3 Feed scarcity
In Afar, animals play a central role in all walks of life. Cattle, goats and camels, in
particular, have an importance that goes beyond the production of meat. Their value is
based on the full set of services they supply (milk, meat, hides, draught power), their
asset value as a form of savings, and their cultural symbolism. The animals feed
predominantly natural grasslands and savannas, although tree leaves and crop residues
are an important supplement during the dry season in agropastoral areas. In this way,
20
pastoral livelihood systems in the region is determined to a great extent by the seasonal
variations in the quantity and quality of the natural pasture.
The rainfall in the region is bimodal, with a dry period of nearly 6-8 months, which
causes serious challenges to the overall attainment of food security. It is normal for cattle
to lose weight during the dry period, due to the unavoidable dry season under-nutrition.
The critical point is to prevent excessive weight loss because the cattle might fail to
recover fully during the following rainy season. In the region, periodic droughts
aggravate the dry season under-nutrition, and wide spread cattle deaths are a common
feature. In addition to the impacts of moisture stress, shrinkage of grazing land due to
bush invasion (by a combination of bush encroachment, unpalatable fobs and shrubs),
weakening of indigenous rangeland management systems, are fuelling the problem of
rangeland degradation and hence feed scarcity and further land degradations and loss of
livelihoods.
The replacement of the productive and highly valued grass species with low quality feed
resources and unpalatable weeds have greatly reduced available consumable herbage
accentuating the problem of poor pasture and feed scarcity. Feed scarcity is a serious
threat as livestock malnutrition is causing high miscarriage rates and distress, reduced
reproduction and production rates and mortality of weak livestock. Afar pastoralists
believe that shortage of feed has resulted in long calving period, weak physical condition
and less yields (milk, meat, lower market values) and reduced reproductive capacity.
3.2.4 General water stress
Water stress is probably the main indicator that Afar people are now entering a new stress
phase after the absence of the main rains and denied access and inefficient sharing of
existing water resources. September and October are normally the months when there is
plenty of water available and the Awash River floods in many areas along its river sides
crossing Afar Region. It is also the period of the year when pastoralists enjoy plentiful
milk supplies and when animals have recovered from the previous dry season.
However, the decline in the amount of rainfall, the erratic nature of the rains and even the
failure of the main or short rainy seasons, aggravated by climate change, is creating
serious water shortage and stress particularly on pastoral and agro-pastoral households.
As a result of the water stress, permanent water sources are now being overexploited. For
example, during drought season near Talalak (Zone 5), a permanent well is used to water
small stock as well as calves whereas natural sources, springs and ponds are used to water
cattle and camels. During such times, water levels are low in the Awash River and in the
canals downstream of Dubti. Agro-pastoralists could not plant, as most of the gravitation
irrigation systems remain dry. For Assaita and Afambo weredas, water resource sharing
solutions with the Tendaho Commercial Farm and its irrigation schemes appear the only
solutions the district administrations can think of during such times of great want.
21
3.3 Human and livestock diseases
3.3.1 Human diseases
Climate change is expected to affect disease and pest distribution, range, prevalence, incidence
and seasonality but the degree of change remains highly uncertain (IPCC, 2007). The potential
impact of climate change on human diseases is relatively better understood than those on animal
health. Nonetheless, climate change is expected to affect both pathogen and vector habitat
suitability through changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind patterns (Agrawala
et al. 2003). Heat stress and drought are likely to have further negative impacts on animal and
human health and disease resistance (IPCC, 2007).
Human health has always been a problem in Afar Region having one of the highest child
mortality rates in the country, inextricably linked to climate related risks such as drought and
floods, and the inadequacy of medical facilities and qualified and trained local personnel. The
most commonly reported human diseases include malaria, Tuberculosis, and , watery diarrhea.
In Afar, among the indirect impacts of climate change-related exposure on human health are the
food insecurity, malnutrition and poor child growth and development, and rise in the number of
people suffering due to heat waves.
3.3.2 Animal diseases
Climate variability and change pose increasing risks to Afar pastoralists. Declining rangeland and
crop productivity is reducing the amount and quality of already scarce forages and crop by-
products, with which virtually all-pastoral and agro-pastoral communities feed their animals. Less
water is making the situation more difficult. Animals in the regional state already suffer from the
burden of endemic and newly emerging varieties of animal diseases, which can be linked to the
changing climate and the extreme weather conditions. Cold-blooded vectors are sensitive to direct
effects of climate such as temperature, rainfall patterns and wind. Rising temperature influence
the reproduction and maturity rate of infective agents as well as the survival rate of the vector
organisms, thereby further influencing disease transmission (IPCC, 2001, 2007). Climate also
affects their distribution and abundance through its effects on host plants and animals (WHO,
2003).
Livestock, particularly cattle, are the first victims of drought. The lack of nutritious
pasture and the resultant under-nutrition of cattle expose livestock to various drought and
water-borne vector diseases. Opportunistic diseases, mostly internal/external parasites
and infectious diseases are common challenges during drought seasons. New and
unidentified diseases also cause more illness and livestock deaths. For example, camels
which are considered most resistant to drought are getting affected and dying from newly
emerging and unidentified diseases. Tick and skin diseases on camels, cattle, goats and
sheep are increasingly becoming common problems during drought crisis. According to
them the distribution and impacts of the various animal diseases vary considerably with
22
seasonal and longer-term climatic variations. Some disease such as contagious caprine,
pleuropneumonia (CCPP), PPR and goat pox because of climate change are moving into
new areas and expanding fast. Moreover, during severe droughts the pastoralists will be
forced to move their livestock to far away places, potentially exposing them to different
environments with health risks to which they have never been exposed. Occasional
flooding also exposes livestock to water-borne infectious diseases.
Table 3: Summary of community perceptions of major climate change-
induced hazards and their impacts
Hazard
Local indicators Impacts
Drought
-General decline in the amount
and duration of the rains
- Failure of main and short
rainy seasons
Increased occurrence of
drought
-Prolonged and unrelenting
drought seasons
-Formation of localized
deserts
-Decreased pasture availability (leading to shortage of pasture,
overgrazing, and land degradation (
-Decreased water availability (water shortages)
- Emaciation of livestock (livestock weight loss)
-Death of livestock
-Decreased livestock productivity (milk and meat)
-Decreased livestock disease resistance
-Decreased livestock prices
-Reduced incomes
-Crop failure (mentioned in agro‐pastoral areas
-Increased school drop‐out rates (due to mobility and migration)
-Interruption of development activities
-Drop out of members from saving and credit cooperatives
-Women walking longer distances in search of water
-Increased human diseases and death
-Increased conflicts over scarce resources
Extreme heat
-Increased aridity
-More windy days
- Dusty months
-Drying up of water sources
-Disappearance of local forage
species
-Invasive species
-Decreased pasture availability
-Decreased water availability (water shortages)
-Poor condition of livestock and weight loss
-Death of livestock
-Decreased livestock productivity (milk and meat)
-Decreased livestock disease resistance
-Decreased livestock prices
-Reduced incomes
-Crop failure
-Increased human diseases
-Decreased human labor productivity
-Increased conflicts over scarce resources
Bush encroachment
Livestock
diseases
-Weak physical appearance
-Emaciation
-Decreased productivity
-Low reproductive capacity
-Livestock weight loss
-Reduced livestock productivity
-Reduced livestock breeding
-Livestock deaths
23
Hazard
Local indicators Impacts
-Livestock deaths -Loss of market access
-Loss of incomes
-Increased household food insecurity (especially due to scarcity
of stable food like milk)
-Human deaths (due to contamination)
Human
diseases
-Malnutrition
-Spread of water and vector
borne diseases
-More illness
-Decreased work power / human labor and productivity
-Decreased income
-Human deaths
Flash floods -Crop damages
-Drowning of livestock and
people
-Water borne diseases
-Formation of gullies
-Crop damage
-Food shortages
-Damage of pasture lands
-Drowning of livestock and humans
-Displacement
-Water borne diseases
-Food insecurity
Bush
encroachment
-Loss of forage
-Decline in range productivity
-Expansion of woyane
(Prosopis julifiora)
-Decreased pasture availability
‐ Increased presence of predators
‐ Food insecurity
Source: Compiled from various sources
24
Section 4
Identification of vulnerable sectors and undertaking vulnerability
assessment
According to National Meteorology Agency (NMA, 2007), Ethiopia is among the countries that
are vulnerable to climate variability due to their low adaptive capacity (i.e. low level of
socioeconomic development, high population growth, inadequate infrastructure, and lack of
institutional capacity) and heavy reliance on natural resource-based activities, which are highly
climate sensitive. Although all sectors in Ethiopia may be affected by climate change -
agriculture, water, energy and health are considered as being the most sensitive.
The varying rainfall and temperature patterns in the different regions in Ethiopia and the
differences in the level of socio-economic development implies that the regions differ in their
vulnerability and adaptive capacity to changing climate related hazards. Based on a vulnerability
index that accounts for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, Deressa et al. (2008) found
that Afar, Somali, Tigray and Oromiya regions are more vulnerable to climate change than other
regions of the country. This corresponds with results from Admassie et al. (2008) that the arid,
semi-arid and sub-humid lowlands are more vulnerable than the highland areas. Vulnerability of
Afar and Somali can be attributed to their low level of rural service and infrastructural
development higher frequency of drought and floods, lower access to technology.
4.1 The vulnerable sectors to climate change in Afar Regional State
4.1.1 Agriculture and livestock
In the Afar Region there are commercial irrigated agriculture schemes of private companies and
State Farms like in Amibara in the Middle Awash, Dubti and Dit Bahri plantations in the lower
plain. With the assistance from the current crop extension package coordinated by the Regional
Bureau of Pastoral and Rural Development, over 4,000 ha of land has been converted into small-
scale crop cultivation using both rain and irrigation. Rain fed and supplementary irrigated
agriculture were practiced in Chifra, Ab-ala, Kuneba, Gulina, Awra, Ewa, Dawe, Telalak, and
Semurobi weredas, covered with different crops mainly maize and vegetables. Yield varies based
on the magnitude of rainfall and sufficiency of the river water.
25
Table 4: Irrigation potential of the basins found in Afar
Basin
Catchment
area km2
Irrigation potential
area km2
Awash 110,439 134,121
Danakil 63,852.97 158,776
(CSA, 2007)
The shortage of water is the major problem due to consecutive drought, it has been the common
problem faced in the sector. The main production crops under irrigated farms among others are
dates, cotton, maize and vegetables like tomatoes, green and red pepper and onions. Despite good
potential, irrigation canals observed in most of the farms are not well maintained and the lack of
maintenance has increased flood phenomena. The alluvium soil is a fairly deep, is actually
suffering from frequent over floods as well as Salinisation and Alkalinisation, consequences of
irrigation mismanagement.
Table 4: Estimate of Holders Area, Production of Crops grown in the
region, 2009/2010 (CSA)
Crop Area (unit)
he
Production ) unit
quintals )
Cereals 5,697 142,052
Maize 3,499 964 38
Sorghum 578 7,835
Teff 1649 5,253
Pulses 167 960
Oilseeds 192 683
(CSA, 2009/2010)
Crop production is very sensitive to climate change with different effects. It is affected
biophysically by changing meteorological variables, including rising temperatures, changing
precipitation, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Biophysical effects of climate
change on agricultural production depend on the agricultural system, and the effects vary through
time.
Seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature could impact agro-climatic conditions, can alter
growing seasons, planting and harvesting calendars. It can also impact water availability and
usage along with plant physiological functions including evapo-transpiration, photosynthesis and
biomass production, and land suitability. In addition, risks that could be exacerbated by climate
26
change include increased erosion, and land degradations. Other agricultural activities could also
be affected by climate change and variability, including changes in the onset of rain days and the
variability of dry spells. However, there is the possibility that adaptation could reduce these
negative effects.
For example, in scenario where water resources are expected to decline in quantity and quality the
available irrigation, farmers’ resilience to climate change improves, and productivity may even be
enhanced, compared to a situation of no irrigation. Increased CO2 levels lead to a positive growth
response.
4.1.2 Livestock production
The livestock population in ANRS is estimated to reach 2.3 million cattle, 2.5 million sheep, 4.3
million goats and a little less than a million (0.85 million) camels - number of equines (about,
186,000 donkeys, 112,000 mules) (CSA, 2007). The Northern Afar living in arid desert-like
environments are relatively more mobile livestock herders than the Southern Afar and depend
more upon water drawn from shallow hand dug wells along rivers which usually run dry after a
certain period of time.
Livestock production in Afar areas can be characterized as opportunistic management of the
rangelands with mobile herds. A central strategy is herd size maximization to deal with the
uncertainty of forage and water availability. The Afar pastoralists raise mixed species of primary
livestock, usually camels and cattle and keep supplementary herds of goats and sheep. Camels are
best suited to the arid desert-like area of Afar. In times of water scarcity they can endure without
water for more than two weeks. Furthermore, they are browsers as are goats and feed on the
foliage of trees and bushes. Hence, they are not dependent on surface grass like cattle and to a
lesser degree sheep. Cattle are definitely the most vulnerable livestock to drought. They have to
be watered at least every third day and are unable to survive on tree and shrub foliage.
Unlike cattle, camels are able to move fast and frequently to make maximum use of the existing
but widely distributed pasture, bush and water. The relatively less arid and climatically more
favorable southern part of Afar Region, from Awash up to Mile and especially around Gewane,
offer opportunities for cattle production. Whereas north of Mile shortage of water and relative
scant pastoral resources are serious constraints to cattle production, Afar pastoralists are taking
the risk to breed and raise cattle in a primarily unfavorable environment. In the areas of Zone 4,
the western part of Zone 1 and Zone 2, adjacent to neighboring Amhara and Tigray Regions, Afar
pastoralists have to cover long distances, especially during the dry season and even more in
periods of drought. Having to cover long distances with cattle in northern Afar always bears the
risk that part of the herd perishes due to water or grazing shortage. But camels are primary stock
and status indicators and represent the pastoral capital wealth of the Afar society and are
essentially raised and kept for this reason. On the other hand, sheep and goats are considered
27
consumer and market goods, which are frequently sold and traded for grains and basic household
goods of primary necessity.
In pastoral and agro pastoral systems, livestock is a key asset, fulfilling multiple economic, social
and risk management functions. The impact of climate change is expected to heighten the
vulnerability of livestock systems and reinforce existing factors that are affecting livestock
production systems, such as rapid population, rising demand for food (including livestock) and
products, conflict over scarce resources (land, water, etc).
Animals are intrinsically dependent on the environment, and any fluctuations in weather and
climate can affect them through water and land use changes, such as desertification, and feed and
water availability, access, and appropriateness. Climate change will not only impact the health
and welfare of animals, but also the more than billion people who depend on them.
The direct effects of climate change will include higher temperatures and changing rainfall
patterns, which could translate into the increased spread of existing vector-borne diseases and
parasites, accompanied by the emergence and circulation of new diseases. The response of
increased temperatures on water demand by livestock increases. For example it has been
indicated that cattle water intake increases from about 3 kg per kg DM intake at 10 °C ambient
temperature, to 5 kg at 30°C, and to about 10 kg at 35°C. Loss of animals through droughts and
floods, or disease epidemics related to climate change may increase. The possible results of heat
stress include less feed intake, which may lead to less milk production and less body weight.
Different animals also have different tolerance levels to heat, cold weather and rain. For example,
goats are less tolerant to cold weather and rain than sheep possibly due to their scanty hair, but
the later are less comfortable with heat stress.
Higher temperatures lead to change in species composition kept by pastoralists; the number of
camel and goats that are heat-tolerant may increase. By contrast, species such as cattle and sheep,
which are not heat-tolerant, will reduce in number. Increased precipitation is likely to be harmful
to grazing animals because it implies a shift from grassland to forests and an increase in harmful
disease vectors, and also a shift from livestock to crops.
Livestock Health: The public extension and animal health services are weak and constrained by
lack of sufficient staff and lack of transportation for outreach. The major impacts of climate
change on livestock and human diseases have been on diseases that are vector-borne. Increasing
temperatures have supported the expansion of vector populations. This may lead to outbreaks of
disease. The existence of endemic animal diseases and the emergence of new disease species
coupled with low extension service, the livestock sub-sector become more vulnerable to climate
change.
Beyond vector-borne diseases, helminth infections, particularly of small ruminants will be greatly
influenced by changes in temperature and humidity. Change in climate could also influence
disease distribution indirectly through changes in the distribution of livestock. Areas becoming
28
more arid would only be suitable for camels and small ruminants. If these species are forced to
gather around water points, the incidence of parasitic diseases could increase.
Predictions indicate that climate change will result in warmer temperatures and increased
humidity, which in turn will affect vegetation quality. These changes can influence arthropod
survival and arthropod patterns. Of all changes associated to climate, the impact on arthropods
and its distribution is the most evident. Warmer temperatures result in increasing viral titers
within vectors as well as vector survivafrom season to season and increase in biting frequency.
Therefore, increases in temperature can result in changes in the number of vector generations and
overall abundance of insect populations, which in turn can influence vector population dynamics
and disease transmission. Many significant livestock diseases have insects (mosquitoes or ticks)
as part of their transmission cycle.
Rainfall patterns may also change as a result of climate change and that can also have a clear
impact on the life cycle of pathogens and disease.
Veterinary services, infrastructure and manpower: The animal health service in ANRS is
basically a public responsibility and is organized following the administrative structure of the
region (i.e region, zone, wereda). There is no as such, strong functional link with the federal
animal health department of MoARD. The public veterinary service delivery in ANRS is
generally not able to fully address the needs of the poor livestock owners who entirely base their
livelihood on their animals. As a result several infectious and non-infectious diseases are still
endemic in the region and have economic repercussions. The disease related livestock losses are
often aggravated by recurrent droughts that compromise the nutritional (feed and water)
situations.
Amongst the most economically important livestock diseases are CBBP, Bovine Pasteurollosis,
blackleg, FMD in cattle; Ovine Pasteurollosis, PPR, CCPP, Pox in Shoats; Camel pox. External
parasites (mainly mange mites, ticks and lice) as well as gastrointestinal and pulmonary parasites
affecting all stocks of animals are common in the region ( Yilma, 2005)
Though, the number of veterinary clinics is increasing form time to time recent years, the clinical
infrastructure lack basic facilities (including clinical and diagnostic equipment) required for
sound operations. The distribution of veterinary clinics and manpower and supply of veterinary
inputs (drugs, vaccines, consumables, etc) is often inadequate.
Livestock Marketing: Pastoralists’ livelihoods have been marginally dependent on the
cash economy. They sell livestock and animal products (e.g., milk) usually to pay for
basic needs (e.g., medical care, veterinary services, food staples, household items,
ceremonies). A major hindrance to their livelihoods is the absence of a pastoral-friendly
market system and structures. Inadequate market infrastructure (i.e., facilities with water
and feed at central stations along the long trekking distances) will go a long way in
improving livestock quality, farm gate prices, and livestock marketing alternatives, both
29
internal and external. The negative impact of climate change in pastoral livelihood is also
manifested during recurrent drought caused by climate change which forces pastoralists
to sell their cattle out of their need. This situation will expose the pastoralists to trek long
distance which in turn result in loss of livestock weight, weak bargaining power and
reduced prices. Afar pastoralists target two markets, the Ethiopian internal market and the
export market to Djibouti. The export market is becoming increasingly problematic for Afar
pastoralists due to requirement in quality especially for cattle and camels. However, goats and
sheep have better demand for export market. Internal market constraints include poor market
infrastructure and access to information.
Extension System: There is weak extension service in most of the Afar weredas. There are
limited packages of livestock management and are highland oriented. The few extension staff
available work only at Wereda and kebele levels. Recently, ATVET graduates are assigned to
work as development agents. But assessment of the curriculum of ATVET indicates that the
curriculum does not have specifics that can fit into the pastoral system of production. Hence, the
extent to which the graduates will address the pastoral problems is less.( Yilma Jobre 2005)
4.1.3 Rangelands
The rangeland plant dynamics is vulnerable to stress like changes in patterns of precipitation,
temperature, solar radiation and increased wind speeds. There are already signs indicating
changes that can be experienced in the different vegetation zones of the country for example, the
deterioration and massive dying trend of Acacia tortilis and high yielders and nutritious grass
species.
As far as Afar Region is concerned, there are three categories of rangelands:
• Areas above 500 mm of isohyets is classified as semi arid
• Areas between 300 – 500 mm of isohyets is classified as upper arid
• Areas below 300 mm of isohyets is classified as lower arid
The mean annual rainfall in the western edge of the region is around 600 mm and the amount
decreases as one moves away from the foot of the eastern escarpment of the central highland
mass of the country towards the eastern corner of the Region. This is directly correlated to the
decrease in altitude. In response to moisture stress, the vegetation decreases in abundance and
species diversity from west to east with the exception of river valleys where moisture is not a
limiting factor. Most of the area west of 650 meter contour line is covered with relatively dense
vegetation consisting of grasses, shrubs and trees. Generally, this is used as dry season grazing
retreat. Shrubs, trees and less perennial and more annual grasses, are the characteristic vegetative
cover of contour lines between 500 and 300 meters. This area is preferred as a wet season grazing
retreat. Areas below 300 meters are very sparsely covered with hardy brush and perennial grasses
in inundated spots. Generally, the area is shown as void vegetation on land cover and its
contribution to fodder production is insignificant.
30
Rangeland plants include grasses of herbaceous (non woody) monocotyledonous plants in the
form of annuals or perennials, browses and herbaceous legumes. These range in size from a few
centimeters to 20 m or more in height, and are the main feed for livestock in particular cattle and
sheep. Legumes are dicotyledonous plants, and could be annuals, biennials or perennials. They
are source of feed to livestock in particular to ruminants. Browse is often considered to be leaves
and twigs of shrubs, woody vines and trees used as animal feed particularly for goats and camels,
and are the main livestock feed during the dry season.
The pasture situation is generally poor except on the sides of rivers and streams, here large
concentrations of livestock often graze. Much greener vegetations and bushes are seen along the
routes favoring browser species such as camels and goats. The ‘Sugum’ rain has important
contribution to the regeneration of pasture and browse and to the replacement of water sources,
Pyrethrum weed invasion of traditional rangelands is causing serious feed scarcity especially in
Teru, Ewa, Golina and Awra weredas of zone 4. On the other hand, in areas where there aren’t
many rivers as in the middle Awash and stricken by recurrent droughts (Berhale, Dalol, Kuneba,
Megale, Rabit and Ab-ala of Zone 2), where feed shortage for livestock is a common
phenomenon.
The most considerable change affecting the livelihoods of the pastoral communities is the decline
in rangeland productivity. The continued reduction in the rangeland productivity is due to the
recurrent drought caused by climate variability. The decline resulted in death of animals and
reduced animal productivity. Consequently, the community’s food security was seriously affected
due to the drastic reduction in meat and milk production and reduced household income. This led
to dependency of the community on food aid.
Rangeland Management: The Afar pastoralists have their own traditional systems for access
and management of communally owned pastoral grazing lands. Grazing land is traditionally
divided into grazing reserves (called-deso) and normal/open rangelands. Grazing reserves are
used to sustain livestock during the dry season and during droughts when the normal rangelands
are exhausted. Each clan or sub clan has grazing reserves for emergency feeding of their
livestock, and access to these reserves is based on customary laws. The elders are responsible for
controlling the use and making the rules. Herders use the reserve areas only when other
rangelands cannot provide grazing for everyone. However, such institutional protection of
grazing reserves has been undermined by recurrent drought. This has led to vulnerability of the
pastoralists to climate change.
Both the grazing reserves and communal rangelands in Afar are increasingly deteriorating as a
result of drought and livestock grazing pressure. During stress periods, migration to the highlands
seeking grazing areas is common, but land is becoming increasingly scarce due to land being
occupied by farmers. Range degradation is aggravated due to moisture stress caused by climate
variability and change. This in turn causes the disappearance of important grass species and
invasion of unwanted species reducing range quality by competing with forage grasses and
browse vegetation.
31
4.1.4 Water
Although the water resource is enormous in the region, very little has been developed for
agriculture, industry, water supply, energy and other purposes. Extreme climatic events have
made the water resources more vulnerable and water stress is already being experienced. For
example, in Awash the water resources are highly vulnerable to climate variability, especially in
the distribution of runoff throughout the year. It has been indicated that the Awash river flow will
be affected by climate change because of the uncertainty about rainfall patterns in the basin and
the influence of complex water management and water governance structures.
Water shortage is already a problem in many parts. Higher temperatures lead to higher
evaporation levels and higher water demand by humans and animals. Moreover, the ongoing
desertification process causes fine soil particles carried into water sources, thus accelerating
siltation processes and ultimately reducing their water storage capacities of structures. Apparently
there is a change in water demand both for human and animals. The increased demand in water
consumption can be attributed both to increase of temperature levels and wind speeds on one
hand and the changing lifestyles of pastoralists and livestock management on the other.
The human induced changes in land use such as increasing of human, and total livestock
population, overgrazing, deforestation, have accelerated desertification processes and reduced
water retention capacity of soil and moisture regime. This situation is unlikely to be reduced and
may be exacerbated by climate change as projected precipitation increases are small, and
temperatures and evaporation are projected to rise. Consecutive droughts have led to chronic
water scarcity across the area, leading to water shortage. .
Camels are known for their endurance to thirst and ability to go for long periods (in
extreme cases over 25 days) without water. However the length a ruminant can remain
without water varies and depends on a number of factors, such as the succulence of the
feed, air temperature and the amount of work being performed. Camel herders used to
drive their herds for distances ranging between 40 and 60 km to permanent water points
during dry seasons. The impacts of climate change on water supply changes in livestock
systems. The key contribution of groundwater to extensive grazing systems will probably
become even more important in the future in the face of climate change, although the
impacts on recharge rates of the aquifers involved are essentially unknown. The coming
decades are likely to see increasing demand and competition for water in many places,
and policies that can address allocation and efficiency issues will increasingly be needed.
4.1.5 Health sector
Temperature and rainfall variability will have serious impacts on human health and public safety.
Increase in mean temperatures will lead to infestation of disease vectors especially Mosquitoes.
32
Incidences of water borne diseases are expected to increase on account of flooding. Severe
drought episodes will lead to increased food and nutritional insecurity exposing to health
problems. Community conflicts driven by competition for scarce water and pasture resources will
increase risk of health and safety.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the occurrence and intensity of future disease outbreaks
and perhaps increase the spread of diseases in some areas. It is known that climate variability and
extreme weather events, such as high temperatures and intense rainfall events, are critical factors
in initiating malaria epidemics. Other key determinants of malaria risk include drug resistance,
human migration and immune status, vector or disease-control programmes, and local land-use
changes. Climatic changes, mediated through changes in crop and livestock practices, could also
influence the distribution and impact of several diseases such as malaria across most systems and
schistosomiasis in irrigated systems.
Climate change is bound to have further impacts on heat-related mortality and morbidity and on
the incidence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases, and these may be considerable. While
climate change impacts may have few direct impacts on other diseases such as HIV/AIDS,
climate variability impacts on food production and nutrition can affect susceptibility to
HIV/AIDS as well as to other diseases. Changing disease burdens are bound to add considerably
to the development problems caused by successive natural disasters and emergence from conflict,
associated with low levels of adaptive capacity.
Major challenges faced are the relative weakness in disease surveillance and reporting systems,
which hampers the detection and control of epidemics, this very fact makes it difficult to obtain
the long-term linked data sets on climate and disease that are necessary for the development of
early warning systems.
In general, access to health services in Afar pastoral communities is lower compared to other
regions in the country. Many health centers and health posts have been constructed in the last
few years. But lack of electricity, laboratory and other facilities, shortage of appropriate health
staff and budget are major problems hindering provision of adequate health services. Moreover,
the health service is constrained by poor awareness of the society in making use of the health
services.
The following factors will increase vulnerability in health and public safety.
• Inadequate health services especially in areas which are far from main roads
• Inadequate infrastructure.
• Poverty especially among rural communities.
• Lack of alternative means of income especially in marginal areas.
• Inadequate public awareness of disease risks.
• Widely practiced harmful traditional practices
33
4.1.6 Education sector
The Afar pastoral communities had very less access to education. At present, schools are being
constructed in the different weredas and kebeles but due to scattered settlement of the
communities on a vast area, and because of the need for child labor for herding, the school
enrollment rate is still low.
In general, the low literacy level of the pastoral community could be due to the following factors:
• Lack of access to schools at vicinity of the pastoral communities;
• Lack of awareness of the importance of education particularly of girls;
• The need for child labor for herding and domestic chore;
• Lack of alternative basic education or non-formal schools;
• Lack of appropriate schools such as mobile schools to educate the children;
• Shortage of food is a critical problem reducing enrollment and increase school dropouts;
• Early and mandatory (Absuma) marriage of girls;
• Lack of access to water and health services around the schools;
Therefore, addressing the above issues would promote school enrolment in the pastoral
communities. Construction of permanent schools in each community supplemented with mobile
schools in the communities would improve the literacy rate in the pastoral communities. On top
of the above concerns, climate change enhances the instability of pastoral communities which
inturn affects school enrollment and access.
4.1.7 Access to infrastructure and technology
Constraints in technological options, limited infrastructure, skills, information and links to
markets further heighten vulnerability to climate stresses. The agricultural sector, for example,
depends on inefficient irrigation systems, which heighten vulnerability to climate variability and
change. The low levels of technological innovation and infrastructural development result in
vulnerability of water, food, transportation, and energy sectors. The region has low per capita
density of road infrastructure. As a result, transport connections tend to be poor and are in urgent
need in order to reduce transport costs and promote trade. Such situations often exacerbate
drought and flood impacts, as well as hindering adaptation to climate stresses.
The poor generally are more vulnerable, suffer greater costs, and have less capacity to take
compensating action, than better-off households.
One factor in this heightened vulnerability to the devastating consequences of disasters is reliance
of the poor on critical infrastructure. The poor may have no alternative path to access the services
provided by public infrastructure. Reliable access to critical infrastructure services such as clean
water, energy, shelter, transportation, and medical care play a vital role in maintaining minimum
living standards for the poor. Rural transport, electrification, and irrigation projects, which have a
34
proven track record in poverty reduction, could be damaged by catastrophes caused by climate
change. Replacement is often delayed, and resources for reconstruction are diverted from other
poverty reducing development programmes. Long-term disability and destruction of
infrastructure can trap households in chronic poverty.
4.1.8 Road Transport
Road networks and the transportation facility between the communities and the respective wereda
towns are essential to ensure supply through market mechanisms. In general, the region faces
severe infrastructure problems, as the weredas are vast. Roads connecting weredas to region and
wereda with kebeles and village are mainly dry weather and only passable during dry season. The
majority of weredas have communication facilities such as telephone (land line and mobile) but
not effective to the level desired and there is shortage of private operators in the region, which
have effects on the smooth functioning of the market. However, the status of infrastructure
services varies by wereda.
The main threats presented by climate change to infrastructure assets include damage or
destruction from extreme events, which climate change may exacerbate; such as flooding high
temperature and high speed wind blow. Increased frequency and intensity of flooding events may
cause significant damage to roads, and bridges. Bridges are susceptible to extreme flooding.
Increased temperature and solar radiation could reduce the life of asphalt on road surfaces.
Increased temperature stresses the steel in bridges and causes expansion of concrete joints,
protective cladding, coatings and sealants on bridges.
4.1.9 Telecommunications
Increased frequency and intensity of extreme wind, and lightning events may cause significant
damage to aboveground fixed line transmission infrastructure and service. Increased extreme
rainfall events are likely to effect underground telecommunications facilities (manholes and pits).
The increase in wind activity could potentially generate a significant increase in the cost of
telecommunications supply and infrastructure maintenance from increased frequency and length
of network outages and disruption of communication services.
4.6.10 Buildings
Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, wind and lightning events are likely to
cause significant damage to buildings and urban facilities. Accelerated degradation of materials,
structures and foundations of buildings and facilities may occur through increased ground
movement and changes in groundwater. Increased temperature and solar radiation could reduce
the life of building and facility elements due to temperature expansion and materials breakdown
of concrete joints, steel, and asphalt. This accelerated degradation of materials may reduce the life
35
expectancy of buildings, structures and facilities, increasing the maintenance costs and leading to
potential structural failure during extreme events.
4.1.11 Biodiversity
In Afar, overgrazing and deforestation contributes to reduction of ground cover and accelerates
erosion processes. Further threats to indigenous trees such as Accacia nilotica, Accasia tortilis
are also posed by the high dependency on fuel wood and charcoal, major sources of energy, that
are estimated to contribute about 80 - 90% of the residential energy out of the fragile
environment. Moreover, important grass species and wild food species, are either pushed to
extinction or are in a very short supply (IEA, 2002).
Temperature increase with reduced precipitation will result in reduction of livestock reproduction
and breed loss that may lead to genetic erosion of important adaptation traits. Increases in the
frequency of droughts, floods and disease epidemics will increase the risk of losing entire breeds
and populations that have a limited geographic distribution. Climate change is also expected to
create additional challenges, such as new diseases, indicating the use of genetic diversity will
become more important in future breeding improvement programmes. With increased
urbanization the magnitude of tree cutting for house construction and fire wood is increasing in
the region.
4.1.12 Energy
In people’s daily lives, energy provides essential services for cooking and heating, lighting, food
production and storage, education and health services, industrial production, and transportation.
However, in poorer, mainly rural and peri-urban communities obtaining energy for basic human
needs are a daily challenge. In those areas, wood, biomass and agricultural wastes provide most
of the energy that is available, and there is little access to electricity or modern fuels for cooking,
heating, mechanized equipment. Without access to efficient and affordable energy sources, they
have very limited opportunities for economic and social advancement. Expanded energy sources
are needed in rural areas to provide: mechanical power for agriculture, water pumping and
irrigation; modern fuels for cooking and heating; and electricity for lighting, refrigeration,
communication, and community services.
The rural areas in the region are most affected by no access to electricity because they are very
dependent on environmental resources for their livelihoods, people in the region are particularly
vulnerable to the depletion of natural resources, and the impacts of climate change.
Nearly all-rural and urban households in Afar use and firewood and charcoal for cooking.
Dependence on biomass can promote the removal of vegetation. The absence of efficient and
affordable energy services can also result in a number of other impacts including health impacts
36
associated with the carrying of fuel wood, indoor pollution and other hazards. Further challenges
from urbanization, rising energy demands and volatile oil prices further compound energy issues.
The potential for increased frequency and intensity of extreme high-speed wind and lightning
events may cause significant damage to electricity transmission infrastructure and services.
Transmission lines and structures while extreme rainfall events may flood power substations.
These could potentially generate significant increases in the cost of power supply and
infrastructure maintenance from increased frequency and length of power blackouts and
disruption of services. Extreme heat wave events are likely to increase in frequency, generating
an increase in the peak demand for electricity for air conditioning in urban areas. At the same
time, efficiency of the transmission is likely to be reduced due to the impact of likely higher
summer temperatures on transmission line conductivity.
Section 5
Adaptation capacities of the Afar Communities and Their Environment
The perception of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists Ethiopia tallies with similar studies of
local perceptions carried out elsewhere, which have found that there is a trend of
declining and more variable rainfall. Pastoral communities generally perceive a change in
the type and severity of shocks and stressors and tell about the emergence of new risks,
which are explained as having a negative impact on people’s assets such as livestock and
natural rangeland. However, there is considerable social variation concerning the impacts
of climate change, as well as people’s ability to adjust their livelihoods.
Climate stressors and shocks are nothing new in these contexts and pastoral and agro-
pastoral systems exhibit important features that make them well suited to climate
uncertainty and variability, including the qualities of being adaptable and flexible to
changing situations. The local perceptions expressed by pastoralists and agro-pastoralists
suggest that people are becoming more vulnerable. The livelihood of Afar people is
mainly livestock keeping and to a lesser extent crop production but this alone rarely
provide for the entire food and livelihood needs of an Afar household. In additional
income sources include salt mining and sale. Petty trade which requires a certain level of
capital prior to start-up is mostly associated with middle-income groups. However,
limited capacity for livelihood diversification options exist due lack of market, financial
schemes, infrastructure and skill
Diversification is a result of distress in customary livelihoods as well as new
opportunities through the opening of markets and growth of small towns in arid and semi-
arid areas. But households earn only meager amounts of income from these new non-
livestock-based tasks. A household’s capacity to face shocks and stressors depends to a
great extent on its asset base and on its ability to access this asset base at a given moment.
37
livestock is the chief determinant of wealth: poor and very poor categories are defined
first and foremost by having little or no livestock of their own.
Like in most pastoral groups, the afar community is characterized by male dominance
and women work for long hours. Women are mostly involved in childcare, husbandry of
small ruminants and milking cows, feeding the family and supporting agricultural
activities. However their role in decision-making is low and development as well as relief
activities are targeted towards men (Oxfam International, 2005).
5.1 Socio-Economic Factors
5.1.1 A Preview of Poverty in Afar
It has been stated in previous section that the Afar Region, about 56 percent of the total
population is classified as poor and around 10 percent or 275,000 citizens of Afar Region
are chronically food insecure (BoFED, 2004).
Poverty in Ethiopia by Regions, 2000
Source: MoFED, 2004
According to the HICE 2000 survey, households in Afar Region who spend between ETB
2,000-12,599 per annum account for 87 percent, which is more or less the same as the
national average. On the other hand, Somali Region, another pastoralist dominated
Region, has about 91.4 percent of households, whose expenditure is in the same range.
Review of domestic expenditures in relation to all payments revealed that Afar region has
one of the highest figures in the country. The region exhibits the characteristics of poor
regions i.e. high expenditure in relation to all payments against savings. Besides, the
region scores the highest point in terms of source of income for livelihoods from
38
agriculture (77.8 percent). Non- agricultural enterprise and wages and salaries account for
2.3 percent and 4.8 percent respectively. The national average for agricultural, non-
agricultural, and wages & salaries is 73.5, 6.3, and 3.3 percent respectively. Moreover,
the percentage share of household income/expenditure spent on food is 53.8% for the
region.
The region is one of the lowest in the country in terms of households’ saving status.
Only1.3% of the total average household annual income is saved in Afar, a figure only
slightly higher than Somali region. Furthermore, more than 92% of the total population is
food insecure in terms of calorie intake. The region also has the second worst child
wasting (11.8%), only next to Gambella (12 %).
The majority of the rural pastoral communities are not educated. Health Service
Coverage is less than the national average. By the end of the year 2005, the health
coverage of the region was only 39.9 %. The health problems in Afar region include
communicable diseases, malaria, respiratory diseases commonly TB, water born diseases
and malnutrition, which are known to be the leading causes of mortality and morbidity.
Though livestock production is the base of livelihood for the Afar people, animal health
service coverage is still at its infant stage. The existing animal health institutions and
health professionals are inadequate. The ratio of animal health institution to livestock is
1:360,978 whereas the ratio for health professionals to animals is one veterinary doctor to
777,491 animals.
The majority of the population of the region still has no access to potable water. 35.7 %
of the households get drinking water from rivers and lakes, 15.72 % get from unprotected
well/spring, 4.17 % from protected well/spring, 36.83 % from public tap and 7.57 % from
own tap. The regional Atlas shows that by 2009 the potable water coverage is 54.49%.
Most of the rural Kebeles do not have safe water supply. With the increased frequency
periods of droughts (from 10 years to around 4 years), the Afar pastoralists are becoming
increasingly vulnerable (e.g., unable to cope with drought conditions).
5.2 Adaptive Capacity of Agriculture sector
The majority of the population of the afar region bases its livelihood on livestock rearing.
However, there are a significant number of agro-pastoralists and sedentary
agriculturalists. To support the agricultural sector the region, as of 2006, had 411
development agents in animal husbandry, plant production and natural resource. At the
wereda level in Pastoral Agriculture and Rural Development Offices 47 animal health
professionals out of which 8 are Doctors of veterinary medicine, 78 crop production and
protection professionals, 174 natural resource professionals, 16 home economics
professionals, cooperative section has 30 professionals and livestock husbandry 121
professionals, and there are 2 marketing professionals are giving services.
In addition to this at the community (Kebele) level different associations have been
established to support the community in the form of marketing agricultural produces and
providing services these include 8 functional livestock marketing associations with 387
39
members, 26 General service association with 1592 members, 13 irrigation association
with 692 members, 5 veterinary medicine supply association 120 members, 2 livestock
product marketing association with 83 members, and 11 saving associations with 494
members. Therefore, though investment on agriculture sector is expanding from time to
time its pace is not compatible with the pressure that climate change impact is imposing.
5.3 Adaptive Capacity of Health sector
5.3.1 Human health
According to the Afar region Atlas published in 2009, the region has 3 Hospitals, 31
Health Centers, and 209 Health Posts. With regard to health personnel there are 3
Specialized Doctors, 10 General Doctors 49 Health officers, 250 Nurses, 33 Pharmacists,
56 Laboratory Technicians, 313 Front line health workers, 44 Health assistants and 29
sanitarians. This figure indicates that the health ratio is not sufficient to cope up with the
health impacts of current variability and future climate change.
5.3.2 Animal health
There are 26 animal clinics, 79 Health posts, 98 Animal crashes. In these Animal Health
Facilities there are 9 Veterinarian Doctors, 44 Assistant veterinarians, 120 Animal Health
Technicians and Health workers found and live with the community, 807 Community
Animal Health Workers are working in all weredas. Disease has numerous negative
impacts on livestock production - Results in mortality, decreases productivity, loss on
power and weight and decrease fertility performance. In Addition to these due to repeated
draught has been decreasing the number of animal population.
However these health institutions lack important facilities such as electricity, water, and
clinical and diagnostic equipments. In addition given the geographically dispersed nature
of the population poor infrastructure, limited road, poor communication system, poor
water supply and limited financial capacity of the community; there are no private
veterinary drug suppliers. Due to these factors the animal health service provision in the
region is not satisfactory.
5.4 Adaptive Capacity of Education sector
Even if effort is being made by the regional government to enhance the level of education
coverage in the region, the coverage was 40% by the end of 2009; this is still low
especially when compared to other regions. According to data processing units of BoFED
/Bureau of finance and economic development/, the total number of regular schools
(Primary & Secondary) are 360, number of students are 115,672 and number of teachers
40
are 2377 (Afar region Atlas 2001(Ethiopian calendar). In addition there are alternative
basic schools that provide education to pastoral communities, which is more suitable to
the pastoral way of life. Climate change induced hazards such as drought, flood, diseases
etc., increases mobility, conflict and insecurity which in turn will have direct impact on
education system by increasing dropouts, decreasing enrollment and participation.
5.5 Access to infrastructure
As of 2005 the road density of the region is only 39.19 km per 1000 sq.km. With uneven
distribution of roads across zones, the total length of asphalt road in the region is only
684 km while the remaining 3049.3 km length of road is gravel rural road of different
standards. The length of wet and dry season roads in the region amount to 1513 km and
dry season roads amount to 2445 km. The accessible roads in the region are insufficient
when putting into consideration the size of the area and population. This will have impact
on access to early warning system, social and economic services that are very important
to adapt to climate change.
5.6 Terms of trade and market conditions
Main market places for Afar to trade their livestock for grain and other commodities of primary
necessity are situated at the edge of Afar Region towards Amhara and Tigray Regions where
highland farmers meet with lowland pastoralists. Other important markets are found on few
places along the main Djibouti-Addis Ababa and the Mile-Bati roads. Terms of trade for livestock
against grain are generally unfair and this will be exacerbated specifically during drought
seasons.
On increased incidence of climate change and extreme events which results in depletion of
household and natural assets, Afar pastoralists are forced to engage in increased firewood and
charcoal production as a coping mechanism and sell it along main roads (Awash-Mile & Mile-
Bati) to counteract income losses emanating from deteriorated terms of trade for livestock against
grain. Thus, by cutting down indigenous trees they are further damaging on the already fragile
biophysical environment.
5.7 Institutional capacity
There is insufficient capacity to design, plan and implement good programs at regional,
wereda, kebele and community levels. While there is some capacity in place, there are
significant institutional gaps that affect the quality of the implementation of policies and
programs in pastoralist areas. The wereda structures put in place as a result of the
decentralization process are still suffering from serious shortage of staff both in number
41
and qualification, and staff turnover is high. This situation, thus, hamper the institutional
effort in combating the effects of climate change.
5.8 Early warning system
The early warning system in ANRS is generally weak where there is one person per
wereda at the Disaster Preparedness and Food Security desk in the PARDO. In addition,
to having insufficient human power these posts are not placed with properly trained and
skilled personnel. Furthermore they are not equipped with the necessary communication
facilities to enable outreach to all community members, to collect and pass information to
the region and other concerned institutions. Lag in early warning system in the Region
than other regions of the country will result increased vulnerability to the impacts of
climate change.
42
Section 6
Identification and prioritization of response measures needed to enhance
regional capacity to climate change adaptation
6.1 Addressing climate change impacts
Ethiopia is a country whose economy depends on natural resources which are highly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Taking this into consideration at national
level, climate change has been given due recognition by the Ethiopian government and
potential response measures has been mainstreamed into the overall development
planning. The country has also ratified the three Rio Conventions namely: the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, Convention
on Bio-diversity and its Kartahena Protocol and the United Nations Conventions to
Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought.
A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) is devised with the objectives of identifying
and promoting activities that address the urgent needs for adapting to the adverse impacts
of climate change. The Programme is prepared to address sectoral and cross sectoral
issues and possible interventions by respective government and non government
institutions and the community. There are also a number of environmentally oriented
policies, strategies and action plans that can directly or indirectly contribute to the
objective. However, the problem lies in translating the climate change impact-mitigation
into the policies and programs of the country. As a result, the national policies and
programs have give attention to vulnerable societies in climate sensitive, drought and
flood prone areas of the country (Aklilu and Alebachew, 2009).
Climate change has implications across sectors such as human and animal health,
education, water supply, agriculture, infrastructure etc, and at all levels from federal to
local level. Therefore, it is an issue that influences development decisions at all levels.
Accordingly, appropriate interventions should be determined based on vulnerability
context. Climate change adaptation response measures can be categorized into two broad
categories as, emergency interventions that and long term development programs. Many
development actors and scholars suggest that in order for a climate change response
measure to be effective and sustainable the synergies between adaptation and mitigation
technologies should be strengthened, interconnected and local adaptive capacity to
climate change should be enhanced.
From the past emergency and development interventions of government, NGOs and other
development actors the following response measures have been identified as appropriate
response measures.
43
6.1.1. Livestock
Livestock is the primary victim of the impacts of climate change hazards. As a result, in
case of both emergency intervention and long term development program, livestock
related disaster interventions should be focused mainly on animal health and nutrition,
livestock water supply and building on existing community adaptation systems.
Animal health
Livestock diseases cause rapid loss of livestock assets and reduction in milk supply,
reproduction and draught power during disaster incidence. During extended dry periods,
there is less access to pasture and water for livestock. The physical weakness of livestock
at this time makes them susceptible to different diseases. Among the critical infectious
diseases, rinderpest, pasteurolosis, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, foot and mouse
disease, anthrax, bloody diarrhea, skin and lung diseases and internal and external
parasites are some of the critical infectious diseases and pest attacking livestock during
drought and flood hazards.
The following are various possible options for intervention during and after climate
change disaster (Save the children UK, 2009).
• Improve investment and veterinary services through increased budget for
resources for the wereda’s veterinary services, in the form of skilled personnel,
equipment and drug supply;
• Support and promote establishment of veterinary services and train equip
community animal health workers to control and prevent endemic and outbreak of
diseases;
• Proper flow of information throughout the different administrative and
institutional levels on disease outbreak and response measures.
• Seasonal vaccination campaigns in times of disease outbreaks
Livestock feed and water
The following are various possible options for external intervention during and after
climate change disaster as summarized from various sources (Lars Otto Naess, 2009;
Save the children UK, 2009; NAPA, 2007; Twigg, 2007).
• Facilitating livestock mobility: Provision of information where forage is
available; management of conflict concerning access to key resources (water
points, forage); provision of transport infrastructure;
• Develop and improve water sources such as ponds, protect and manage dry
season rangelands through customary institutions;
• Promote flood and rain water harvesting to address chronic water shortages,
• Strengthen and rehabilitate water storage facilities;
44
• Develop small scale irrigation schemes for fodder production and livestock
watering;
• Provision of supplementary livestock feed (importation of hay, grain or green
feed, multi-nutrient block) in case of emergency situation;
• Identifying and fencing dry season grazing areas;
• Support in the development of fodder banks to increase the availability of fodder
for livestock;
• Feed conservation (hay), rotation grazing and changing of the traditional feeding
practices (cut and carry system).
Destocking and Restocking
“Destocking programs involve the intentional removal of animals from pastoralist
communities in times of drought and other calamities, before animals die and become
worthless. Ideally, these interventions provide a fair price to pastoralists/agro-pastoralists
for their livestock, based on the animal’s gender and age” (CIDSE and Caritas
International 2009). Commercial destocking fits well with the concept of saving lives and
livelihoods. However, for destocking to be successful, improved road access and market
information is necessary.
Destocking can also:
• Create a market for weaker animals, thereby enabling poor pastoralists to keep
stronger animals in their herd, preserving a key household capital asset for post-
drought recovery;
• Impact on the nutritional status of poor households and contribute to school and
other feeding programs;
• Support the trading activities of women’s groups;
• Reduce overstocking around village settlements;
• Support traders through provision of loans and smoothing bureaucratic
procedures;
• Improve accesses to finance (credit associations).
Restocking is the means of reversing the trend towards the increasing impoverishment of
pastoralists. It also involves provision of either commercial loans or livestock from a
similar agro-ecological location, provision of feed or transportation support to help
households restock their livestock assets. Though it is debatable whether the intervention
will bring long-term impact on food security or livelihood improvement, successful NGO
interventions have been documented in Southern Ethiopia (Twigg, 2007)
6.1.2. Livelihood diversification
Given the recurrent and critical impacts of climate change on the highly livestock
dependent pastoralist communities, diversifying livelihood options is becoming a
45
question of survival than choice. Diversification is a proven strategy to build household
resilience through spreading risk. Livelihood diversification can be engaging in any
income generating activity such as crop farming, handicrafts, petty trade, labor sale,
seasonal labor migration and others.
• Crop farming
Given the increasing pressure from climate related hazards and declining livestock
productivity, crop cultivation is spreading to rangelands and areas that have never been
under cultivation. The Ethiopian government in its Agricultural Development Led
Industrialization (ADLI) strategy aims to enhance the agricultural productivity in
potential farming areas as well as non-potential dry land areas without compromising the
scope and space for mobile livestock herding. Agro-pastoralism could be considered both
a response to food insecurity and economic diversity. To support the introduction and
expansion of crop cultivation in pastoral areas of Afar, the following support mechanisms
can be considered:
• Creating enabling environment and support the construction of small scale
irrigation facilities like micro dams, ponds, diversion canals and dikes;
• Provide agricultural skill training;
• Conducting research on stress/ drought and disease resistant as well as early
maturing crop varieties;
• Improve agricultural extension service provision (pesticides, improved seeds,
fertilizers and trainings);
• Improve agricultural productivity through improved inputs, adapting improved
farm technologies, improved animal health service, strengthened disease and pest
control mechanisms;
• Improve market and market information and facilitate loan services
(microfinance)
• Promote income generating activities.
To cope with the impacts of drought and improve household food security, traditionally
pastoralists engage in daily casual labor in urban areas and commercial farms, petty
trading, salt mining, making and selling of charcoal, selling of chat, firewood, fruits and
resins. Appropriate support mechanisms should be put in place to assist the pastoralists
diversify their economic means both during normal times and emergency situations.
However, caution is needed when identifying appropriate income generating activities
depending on the local context, socio cultural situation and impacts on local environment.
So far, the following measures have been undertaken by various institutions:
• Provision of micro credit and saving schemes and institutional support;
• Organizing women and youth in cooperatives and small businesses and support
with funds so as to engage in small businesses and trade;
• Provision of skill trainings to boost people’s ability to take up loans and engage in
income generating activities;
46
6.1.3. Market and infrastructure development
For the Afar pastoralists, income from the sale of livestock and its products is the primary
source of income. In times of disasters such as drought, market terms of trade for
pastoralists can deteriorate sharply, particularly where pastoralist's drought coping
strategies are limited and infrastructure for grain supply and livestock off take is weak
(Twigg, 2007). According to a recent study conducted by Save the children UK price of
livestock goes down dramatically while price of food grains sharply rise during dry
periods and disaster situations (Save the children UK, ARDPPFSB and FDPPA, 2009).
In addition to market access, improved and disaster proof communication networks and
infrastructure will be a key to the development of the pastoral economy. In this regard,
government, NGOs and other stakeholders need to intervene in the following major areas
to improve local and cross border marketing of livestock and their products and other
products such as dried dates. The following list of interventions can serve as project ideas
for government and NGOs gathered from various sources (Save the children UK,
ARDPPFSB and FDPPA, 2009).
• Improving marketing and market information systems through formation of local
marketing co-operatives;
• Facilitation and promotion of cross boarder livestock trade with controlled illegal
trade (inter regional and abroad);
• Establish community group managed cereal banks to stabilize cereal prices at all
times;
• Improve access road, transport, communication access and improve road network
between kebele, woreda and market centers;
• Facilitate the establishment of market centers and media programs for market
information;
• The introduction of commercial or community-based banking services at
scheduled livestock markets;
• During drought occurrence, early and widespread dissemination of information
concerning timely weather, water and feed conditions, livestock and grain prices
and drought management strategies;
• Strengthen indigenous early warning system;
• Build road and bridges to allow access to all districts at all seasons;
• Strengthen hazard escaping infrastructure and utilities; and
• Improve livestock market infrastructure and auction system.
47
6.1.4. Human health and water supply
Similar to other pastoral regions, scarcity of potable water is a serious problem among the
Afar societies. Households largely depend on unprotected water sources such as rivers,
lakes, springs and traditional wells (ellas) for their water needs for use and consumption.
As a result, apart from their vulnerability to water borne diseases, women and children
are forced to travel long distances to fetch water. In addition, it is difficult to increase
distribution of boreholes and shallow wells in settlement areas. There is a need to involve
in activities that increase water availability and quality as well as reduce the vulnerability
of the rural poor to shortage of water through implementing the following interventions:
• Develop and improve water sources such as boreholes, springs and shallow wells;
• Improve human health facilities (health centers, health posts, pharmaceuticals and
trained health experts);
• Deploy malaria protection and prevention campaigns;
• Introduce solar power drilling system for sustained source of water; and
• Maximize use of existing water structures (provision of chemicals, water filtration
equipments and protection of);
The following potential adaptation interventions have been also suggested in the National
Adaptation Plan for Action.
• Improved health services and health facilities, provision of medicines, use of
mosquito nets, health extension, environmental and personal hygiene and
sanitation; and
• Research on the tradition coping mechanism of climatic hazards, dissemination of
endogenous knowledge and encourage efficient & traditional medication
6.1.5 Natural Resource Management
Pastoralists have various traditional natural resource management strategies such as
management of rangeland and livestock (identifying dry and wet season grazing, herd
management, controlled soil burning, proper water management system, weed and pest
management and others). The Afar traditional institution “mad’aa” governs the proper
management and fair utilization of rangeland and water sources. To further strengthen the
traditional system and support it with modern systems and technologies, the following
appropriate interventions are recommended:
• Catchment treatment through land management, moisture and soil conservation
and flood control methods;
• Implement soil and water conservation programs and projects that promote local
community participation;
• Focus on rehabilitation and reclamation of degraded land, reforestation,
conservation, management and protection of natural resources;
• Rehabilitate and manage dry season rangelands;
48
• Implement measures to control aggressive weeds and other invasive plants such
as Prosopis juliflora, Partenium; and
• Implementation of planting multipurpose trees at house hold level in areas where
water is available from irrigation structures.
6.1.6. Conflict Management and Resolution
The intensive competition for scarce natural resources is the main ground for severe
inter-ethnic and intra-ethnic conflicts in pastoral areas. According to a study conducted
in Borana zone, conflict and drought were ranked highest of all environmental and socio-
economic shocks and stressors people are facing (Lars Otto Naess, 2009). Though the
Afar people have traditional conflict management and resolution mechanisms, the
growing climatic stress and livelihood insecurities have largely contributed to the
expansion of conflicts and weakening of traditional resolving mechanisms (Aklilu
Amsalu and Alebachew Adem, 2009).
Government, NGOs and other development agents can participate in community peace-
building process by merging existing customary law with the formal institutions.
Indigenous institutions, ecological and technical knowledge play paramount importance
in resource management and should be given due emphasis in any peace building
intervention. ‘In cases of inter-ethnic conflicts, designing projects such as community
based natural resource management should involve neighboring communities and efforts
must be geared towards developing an integrated approach to conflict management’
(Yayneshet Tesfay and Kelemework Tafere, 2004). Any intervention in conflict
management and peace building should give due emphasis to build the capacities of
various peace and conflict resolution committees and local institutions that facilitate
dialogue.
6.1.7. Community capacity building and awareness creation
For local adaptation strategies and external interventions bring about the intended
outcomes, the limitations of the pastoralist societies in terms of capacity should be
approached by local and international development actors and support the activities that
pastoralists themselves are already undertaking in order to deal with climate change. In
the pastoral Afar societies, the capacity limitations are not specific to the community but
also to the local government institutions, community leaders and experts. This
necessitates the need to develop a capacity building plan aimed at addressing the capacity
gaps at all levels
According to an assessment conducted in southern Ethiopia by Forum for Social Studies,
lack of awareness in areas of population planning, girls’ education, women
empowerment, reproductive health, and impacts of harmful traditional practices
complicate the impacts of climate change driven disasters (Aklilu Amsalu and
Alebachew Adem, 2009). Projects aimed at bringing holistic and long term development
49
impacts on the lives of the pastoralists should incorporate local capacity building
component giving special emphasis to empowering economic, social and political say of
women.
Another activity that can be done to further strengthen the adaptive capacities of the
pastoralists is to strengthen early warning systems and make them user friendly and
useful by incorporating indigenous knowledge systems. Therefore, the following are
feasible interventions recommended in the capacity building component.
• Strengthening/enhancing drought and flood early warning systems at national and
regional levels;
• Provision of training on preparation of early warning and disaster prevention plan;
• Capacitate the regional early warning systems to detect droughts, flood and other
hazards;
• Prepare drought and flood contingency plan/funds at the regional level to ensure
timely, appropriate, and adequate interventions aimed at mitigating the impact of
drought-related crises;
• Establish kebele level early warning information system that links to the woreda
level;
• Establish disaster risk management committees at woreda and kebele level and
build their capacities to detect drought, flood and other hazards;
• Assure participation of the pastoralists in development initiatives including
managing climate change and its impacts to a level which enable them to
influence policy and implementation at the national level;
• Public training program on early warning system tools for climate change impacts
in Afar; and
• Advocate for proper land use policy and resettlement options.
The identified appropriate response measures in each sector might not be appropriate at
all times, for all communities and may not always be in line with the national policy and
development strategies. As a result, it is of vital to devise evaluation criteria for the sake
of prioritization. The most important criteria used by NAPA as proposed and endorsed by
the National Climate Change Steering Committee members include, but not limited to:
• Impact on economic growth of the poor (poverty reduction potential);
• Complementarities with national and sectoral plans;
• Climate change risk (Losses avoided by poor People);
• Synergy with action plans under Multi-lateral Environmental Agreements
(MEAs); and
• Cost Effectiveness.
Based on these and other relevant criteria, governmental and NGO interventions should
select and prioritize response measures so as to create resilient Afar communities less
vulnerable to impacts of climate change.
50
In addition to the above discussed appropriate development response measures, short
term emergency interventions should be implemented when disasters occur and people
are in a desperate situation. However, caution should be taken while implementing
emergency interventions not to disrupt the ongoing development efforts and rather
complement with each other. Provision of relief food and non food items, productive
safety net, health care services, temporary shelter, evacuation facilities, livestock feed,
water, sanitation services and school feeding are some of the appropriate emergency
interventions to save lives of people and livestock and help fast recovery from the
impacts of disasters.
51
Section 7
Portfolio of good practices and technologies required for the
implementation of the identified of response measures
For Ethiopia, refocusing development policies towards climate change adaptation is not
necessary. Making development strategies climate proof is more important, but the main
focus should be on removing the factors limiting sustainable development. This helps
create an environment in which investments can sustain, markets function properly and
households have the opportunity to take initiatives to improve their own lives. In this
respect, the situation in Ethiopia, as illustrated by our research, is positive.
7.1 Portfolio of best practice and technologies required
Sectors/climate hazards Best practice/Technologies
Agriculture sector Livestock
- Introduction of adaptive and productive breed
- Forage development
-Fodder bank
- Fishery
- Bee keeping
-Livestock feed supplementation and fattning
-Livestock productive value addition
-Strengthening ethno-veterinary practices
-Destocking and provision mobile slaughtering facilities
-Provision of feed and water to livestock during drought Crop production
- Drip irrigation
-Area enclosure
-Provision of improved varieties of seed (drought resistant)
-Cropping pattern adjustment
-Improved tree planting (afforestation techniques)
-Value addition of crops (using locally improved machinery) e.g.
rice
-Multipurpose tree planting Water Water harvesting structures
• Roof water harvesting
Water storage structures
Rangeland
Bush clearing
Shifting grazing
Cut and carry system
Development of water harvesting structures following mobility
pattern (Grazing root) Energy Fuel saving stoves
Ethanol stoves
Wind mills
52
Health sector
Strengthening health extension workers
Midwifes
Strengthening Indigenous knowledge on human medicine
Mobile health service
Nutrition Diversification of food source
- Introducing vegetables and fish
Education Alternative basic education mobile education system
• Provide technical and vocational training for ex
pastoralists and youth.
• Skill training for women on value addition (churning,
butter…) for diversifying livelihood option Institutional Capacity building
Strengthening CAHWs
Revitalize traditional shifting grazing to give chance for
rehabilitating and recovering degraded rangelands
Establishing a functional Early warning System that also
integrates traditional conventional and timely response
Introducing and extend modern information technology (GPS,
mobile phone, wireless data processing, sat phones…)
Strengthening market and information system
Establish and support financial institutions (microfinance, credit
and saving)
Household asset building and protection from hazards
Strengthening linkage among different development
programs/actors (government and NGO) plus enhance learning
and experience sharing. Natural resources management Soil and water conservation
Introduction of Mud bricks for housing Infrastructure Connecting feeder roads to main roads through community
participation
Incorporate climate hazards in the design of infrastructure
(bridge, enduring electric and telecommunication poles)
Strengthening maintenance capacity of infrastructure (availing
machinery and personnel) Flood protection
Construction of physical structures like terracing, gabion, canal
construction
Biological conservation methods
Improving vegetation cover Afforestation,
Strengthening community response measures
Provision of life saving equipments (boats…),
Life saving skill training
Bush encroachment Introducing prosopis management approach, methods and
systems.
53
-Production of livestock feed from prosopis pod and seeds.
Clearing lands for pasture and crop production.
- Producing construction materials
Conflict management -Strengthen the communities’ conflict management capacity
-Conflict mapping
-Organizing Joint development projects among conflicting clans
-Promote dialogue
-Create livelihood option to those engaged in smuggling illegal
arms
54
Section 8
Impact assessment of response measures in order to address possible mal-
adaptations
In countries like Ethiopia, climate change adaptation interventions cannot be separated
from other poverty reduction and sustainable development efforts because climate change
acts upon existing vulnerabilities. In other words, in Ethiopia vulnerability to climate
change is largely contextual, and hence adaptation partly simply requires emphasis on
baseline or business-as-usual development activities. Evidently, improved social,
economic and human development is synergistic with adaptation to climate change. Thus
climate change represents an important additional stress on those pastoral areas already
affected by increasing resource demands, unsustainable management practices and
environmental degradation. These stresses interact in different ways across themselves
and reduce the ability of the pastoral production system to provide, on a sustained basis,
key goods and services needed for successful economic and social development,
including adequate food and feed, good health, water and energy supplies, employment
opportunities and social advancement.
In the Afar National Regional State, vulnerable households and affected pastoral and
agro-pastoral communities employ a range of measures to cope with the impacts of
climate variability and climate change-induced disasters. The most commonly practiced
household and community measures in the area of resource (herd and range) management
include hay making (grass and straw collection), off-season and opportunistic cultivation,
slaughtering of calves, looping and feeding animals on acacia leaves, settlement around
water points, herd diversification and splitting, area enclosure, negotiation with other
ethnic groups for scares resource utilization, , use of traditional medicine for humans and
livestock. In the case of flooding hazards, the Afar employ traditional practices including
maintenance of broken riversides, planting trees and protecting vegetation covers on hilly
areas, constructing soil and water conservation structures, temporary displacement from
flood-prone areas, flood diversion, etc.
In addition, vulnerable households employ a diverse portfolio of economic and social
strategies to cope with climate change-induced disasters. Petty trading, resource sharing
like lending milking cows to poor households, consumption adjustments, minimizing
non-food expenditure, seasonal migration, traditional knowledge of medicine and
treatment of illness, firewood and charcoal selling, minimizing ceremonial expenses and
55
saving money, purchasing of food commodities with credit, inter- mirage with other
ethnic groups, etc. However, the capacity of most of the traditional household and
community coping strategies are too weak or limited to help them adequately cope with
current climate variability and predicted climate change impacts. Also, it is important to
note that not all current local strategies to cope with hazards are efficient or appropriate
for long term adaptation. Some strategies that rely on short-term considerations can
worsen environmental degradation and thereby diminish future adaptive capacity and
livelihood options. For example, traditional coping strategies such as charcoal and
firewood selling leads to massive deforestation, making this strategy obsolete in the long
run, and leading to intensification of climate change impacts. Similarly, traditional
resource sharing and asset redistribution mechanisms become obsolete strategies if there
are too many losses and too many people in need every year.
It is important to note that not all current local strategies to cope with hazards are
efficient or appropriate for long term adaptation. Some strategies, based on short-term
considerations, survival needs, lack of information or imperfect foresight, can worsen
environmental degradation and thereby diminish future adaptive capacity and livelihood
options. The sustainability of different coping strategies also depends on the intensity,
duration and frequency of hazards. For example, traditional coping strategies such as
charcoal and firewood selling, food rationing, and traditional asset redistribution
mechanisms, might be efficient when viewed from the perspective of daily survival and
short-term coping. However, if there is frequent drought, charcoal and firewood selling
leads to massive deforestation, making this strategy obsolete in the long run, and leading
to intensification of climate change impacts; continuous food rationing leads to
malnutrition, decreased disease resistance and human capabilities, and sometimes even
death; and traditional asset redistribution mechanisms become obsolete strategies if there
are too many losses and too many people in need every year. The unsustainability of
many traditional coping strategies in the face of current climate change is already visible,
and has been widely documented.
On the other hand, decentralization, expanding infrastructure, improved coverage of
primary health care and education (particularly for girls) are enabling conditions which
support community adaptation and build the adaptive capability of individuals and
households. The support of state and non-state actors, in rebuilding assets damaged by
disasters, rehabilitating degraded environments, diversifying rural incomes, and building
human capacity through various development programs is another most important
opportunity in building ecological and human resilience to the unavoidable impacts of
climate change.
Experiences so far show that there is a potential for interventions to have unintended
short and long term beneficial as well as harmful impacts on the lives of the beneficiaries
56
and physical environment. The challenge for external institutional interventions in
pastoral areas has so far been in the use of local indigenous adaptation mechanisms in the
planning, implementation and evaluation of such development interventions. A brief
description of the unintended impacts of some of the response measures discussed in the
previous sections is given here under.
8.1. Emergency interventions
Institutional emergency interventions in the form of the transfer of food and cash aid,
school feeding, safety-net and others may affect the long-term sustainability of the
pastoral production system and may even create dependency syndrome. Lack of
sufficient information and comprehensive and responsive early warning system on the
possibility of occurrence of a hazard has been one possible cause for the poor timing of
emergency aids. Moreover, inadequacy of emergency resources and poor targeting of
beneficiaries, in some cases, contributed to the less inadequacy and ineffectiveness of
such interventions in addressing immediate needs of pastoralists at risk.
8.2. Development interventions
In the last two decades, the federal government and the Afar Regional state government
have implemented various development interventions in the form of livelihood
diversification, asset protection, range rehabilitation, soil and water harvesting and
management, irrigation infrastructural development, and bush clearing. Despite the
limitations of financial resources, institutional capacity and logistics, these interventions
have contributed to improved living conditions and building local resilience.
The government of Ethiopia has adopted policies, strategies and action programmes
aimed at poverty reduction, environmental protection and sustainable development. The
various national policy initiatives and sectoral programs in place also address climate
change, directly and indirectly. In the pastoral areas, the government executes different
programs from emergency aid and productive Safety net programs, disaster prevention
and management, asset protection and livelihood diversification, to conflict management
and resolution. However, government response has been sectoral, short lived and biased
towards emergency aid, which in most cases is insufficient and not delivered on time.
The early warning system of the country is narrow in its approach and is biased towards
capturing the threats of drought and food insecurity in an emergency situation. In
57
addition, lack of synergy among the various sector offices has hindered integrated and
collaborative efforts to effectively mobilize communities and manage their resources.
Though livelihood diversification interventions such as expansion of opportunistic and
irrigated farming agriculture have been proven to enhance food security of households
and resilience to impacts of drought hazards, if ill planned can have negative impacts as
well. The expansion of areas for agriculture may induce shrinkage in rangeland areas and
hence affect mobility and recovery in the pastoral system. In addition, poor planning and
management of irrigation projects can have unanticipated negative environmental
impacts such as salinity of farmlands, incidence of malaria outbreak, siltation of irrigation
infrastructures and farms etc. Moreover, government, NGOs and other development
actors should consider environmental sustainability, technological adaptability and socio-
cultural acceptability factors when designing and implementing any intervention which
involves water development and use and management of communal natural resources to
avert possible conflicts among resource user groups.
Furthermore, any technological interventions such as construction of water supply points,
irrigation schemes and others should be cost effective and easy for local management and
maintenance. While suggesting a specific intervention, it is also important to consider the
workload placed on women: as they take up new activities, they still have to fulfill their
usual tasks of childcare, food preparation, collection of firewood and fetching water,
which, given the multi-faceted impacts of climate variability and change, has become
more time-consuming.
In general, though it is difficult to determine the best interventions and timing of an
intervention, long term development activities that are environmentally sustainable, cost
effective, and socially acceptable can contribute to ecological restoration and the
development of local resilience and adaptive capacity.
Whilst development activities have adaptation benefits, it is also necessary to give
explicit attention to climate-justified adaptation measures which may be beyond baseline
poverty reduction and development interventions. For example, land use planning related
measures will be necessary to mitigate flood damages in flood-prone areas, or to take
advantage of changed climates (e.g. increased temperatures) to produce certain types of
crops. Besides, in some cases business-as-usual development can lead to mal-adaptation,
increasing exposure and vulnerability to climate change. An example for such type of
development could be resettlement of people in areas that are likely to become unsuitable
for human habitation due to risks from climate change such as increased floods or
droughts, heat stress, exposure to infectious diseases, etc.
58
9. Suggested adaptation measures and strategies
Obviously, adaptation to the variability of climate and changing weather patterns is
nothing new in the pastoral areas of Ethiopia particularly in Afar. The challenge now is to
respond to both rapid and strong changes in the climate system. The endogenous
adaptation strategies employed by pastoralists need to be supplemented and supported by
modern adaptation approaches and external (institutional) interventions with a view to
strengthening local adaptation strategies, empowering vulnerable groups and building
resilience and resistance to climate change impacts. Hence, there is urgent need for the
development of appropriate climate change adaptation programs and projects that could
sufficiently respond to climate change impacts. In this regard, the following adaptation
response measures are suggested to guide future adaptation interventions in the Afar
National Regional State.
• Integrated disaster risk reduction and early warning system: The existing disaster
preparedness and early warning systems are narrow in scope and biased towards capturing the
threats of drought and food insecurity in an emergency situation. The system should be
reoriented and broadened to capture other emerging threats to livelihoods and ecosystems
from the multifaceted impacts of climate change in the pastoral areas including floods, human
and livestock diseases, crop pests and noxious weeds. Integrated and holistic disaster risk
reduction requires an early warning system and practical action to prevent disasters from
happening or significantly reducing their impact during and after they occur, not simply
through technical preventive measures, but more importantly through reducing social
vulnerability and embarking on social and economic development designed to build local
resilience and resistance to climate change. A major strategic challenge and opportunity lies in
building a bridge between current disaster risk management systems and strategies which
promote climate change adaptation through the reduction of climate risks. There is an urgent
need to move away from the current disaster-emergency relief driven syndrome towards a
multi-hazard and cross sector consideration.
• Discourage unsustainable livelihood and mismanagement of resources: Although most
adaptation strategies adopted by pastoral communities are crucial in building resistance and
resilience to the impacts of climate change, there are some unfavorable emerging trends which
encourage unsustainable use of natural resources which households have developed out of
desperation and lack of options. Such unsustainable coping strategies and external
interventions reduce the productivity, carrying capacity and the resilience of the range
resources to climate change. Such practices include resorting to fuel wood collection, charcoal
making, grazing competition and conflict, encroachment on prime grazing lands and dry
season grazing reserves for cultivation, and the concentration of water points at some locations
which do not take into account local environmental and rangeland considerations, disrupt
traditional migration routes for livestock and in some cases leads to the permanent grazing of
pastures which reduces plant vigor and encourages loss of biodiversity. Environmental
degradation is a serious threat which impedes pastoral development and threatens the very
59
survival of pastoralists. It is vital to give priority and due attention to discourage local
environmental degradation and promote sustainable use of environmental resources.
• Improve access to information, education and socio-economic services: The inadequacy of
economic and social services and infrastructural provisions in the pastoral areas exacerbate the
impacts of climate change. In this regard, the local pastoral economy should be strengthened
by reducing the vulnerability of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to volatile terms of trade,
increasing access to marketing outlets and information, education and raising awareness, and
developing alternative and complementary livelihoods for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. In
order to ease the impacts of population pressure and unsustainable resource uses, continuous
education and awareness raising campaigns concerning the importance of limited family size
and family economics, as well as the provision of reproductive health services need to be
essential components of such intervention. In this respect, it is important to empower and pro-
actively engage with local pastoral institutions.
• Through increased investments in tree planting, water harvesting and drought and
disease tolerant crops: Climate change is likely to continue to bring new weather patterns
that pastoralists are unfamiliar with. Intensifying programs and increasing investments aimed
at increasing forest cover, forage availability and water harvesting, storage and management
will undoubtedly reduce pastoral vulnerability to desertification, feed insecurity and water
stress. In order to support agro-pastoralists, it is wise to pay particular attention to researching
and making accessible crop varieties which are heat tolerant and disease resistant.
• Paying particular attention to regeneration of degraded pastures and related mitigation
actions: pastoral livelihood systems are entirely dependent on the exploitation and
management of natural resources such as rangeland. On the other hand, the value of grasslands
as carbon sinks is now well recognized. There is scientific evidence that grasslands are just as
important for sequestering carbon through storing it in their soils. Some evidences show that
well-managed tropical savannas have the potential to store even more carbon than tropical
forests. Hence, regeneration of degraded pastures increases their productivity as well as their
carbon storage capacity and should be encouraged through special support to range
management, reforestation and afforestation programs and activities like promoting area
closure. Whether or not reduced deforestation and degradation efforts are eventually allowed
to offset carbon emissions elsewhere, it makes good sense for the Ethiopian government to
encourage good rangeland and forest management programs.
• Develop irrigation and water harvesting schemes: in the pastoral region of Afar, water-
stress and aridity are major challenges for the development and expansion of alternative
livelihood and income sources including crop cultivation, improved land husbandry and
ecological restoration. Thus, development of small scale irrigation and water harvesting
schemes, and building of local capacity for small scale irrigation planning and development
should be given immediate attention and high priority.
• Support environment and climate friendly development initiatives: Different development
options may be available. Some of these may aggravate the impacts of climate change by
affecting the development and availability of critical resources such as water, land, range,
60
forest and energy resources. Development programs and initiatives that build on local
circumstances; maximize transfer of relevant knowledge and technology; promote the
management and sustainable utilization of environmental resources help increase the
resilience of local systems to the impacts of climate change while development practices that
are not climate proof may increase vulnerability to climate impacts.
• Control and management of diseases: Both human and livestock diseases can increase
during periods of stress, particularly prolonged droughts and unseasoned floods. Preventative
measures may include floodwater management intervention, mobility and hygienic practices
(water, health and sanitation). In view of the expansion of existing human and livestock
diseases and the emergence of new varieties, it is crucial to develop systematic monitoring and
periodic assessment systems, and disease prevention and control programs.
• Asset protection and livelihood enhancement/diversification: Protecting vital livestock,
range and environmental resources is crucial to develop local adaptation capacity and
ecosystem resilience to the impacts of climate change. Given the diverse impacts of climate
variability and change, it is also equally important to enhance and/or broaden available
livelihood options to diversify income streams, absorb surplus labor, and reduce
overdependence on livestock or natural resources and exposure to climate shocks. Alternative
livelihood sources with focus on non-pastoral livelihood options including the protection and
collection of non-timber products (gums, incense, fruits, etc…), bee keeping, petty trade and
other urban-based income-generation activities which can cut unsustainable production and
the daily dependence on natural resources.
• Target and empower pastoral women and other vulnerable groups: Pastoral women are
both victims and active managers of their local environment. Their role in the spheres of the
household economy and the reproductive and productive arenas is innumerable and
immensely critical. The deterioration in the productivity or carrying capacity of the rangelands
or environmental resources will affect them first. Measures which build the capacity and
confidence of pastoral women to actively participate in important decision making in the
household and community spheres are very important and urgently needed.
• Build local capacity: Building local capacity to collect, analyze and interpret climate data and
share results at the local and national levels will improve local weather forecasts, seasonal
climate predictions, risk, and impact assessments. There is also need for interdisciplinary
research and knowledge management to boost understanding on local adaptation, livelihood
enhancement and mitigation options. Recognizing that climate change is altering and will
further alter many existing equilibriums in the social, economic and environmental arena,
socio-economic and political dynamics must be considered, and the role of all actors and
development partners need to be re-examined, redefined and integrated for the common goal.
• Political momentum and institutional capacity: Any progress towards building adaptation
and resilience towards the impacts of climate change in government institutions and agencies
at the local, regional or federal level depends on political commitment and institutional
capacity, reflected in the development and vigorous implementation of robust policies and
strategies. Although significant policy and practical advances have been made in
61
strengthening disaster risk management in Ethiopia, the continuing under-emphasis on
integrated and preventive approaches to the reduction of disaster risks hinders moves toward
long-term adaptations. It is understandable the momentum and political leadership required to
initiate and sustain institutional and governmental initiatives on long-term issues such as
climate change tends to suffer from the political realities of short-term economic or political
gains. But, the reality of climate change in the pastoral areas needs the political will,
commitment and capacity to address those impacts.
Section 10
Conclusions and recommendations
Pastoralists and agro- pastoralists in Ethiopia must manage multiple pressures. Whether
they are able to respond well to climate change depends on a host of non-climatic factors
such as conflicts, lack of access to markets, volatile food prices and restrictions on
mobility and access to key resources.
These pressures compromise responses to climate changes in - ‘normal’ variation and
shocks as well as new variability and increased uncertainty. Although it may seem
obvious, adjustments to climate change do not always happen in otherwise peaceful and
stable settings.
Often it is taken for granted in studies of local adaptation that people simply need access
to new knowledge, technology and financial resources to adjust their livelihoods, when in
actual fact communities’ options and ability to adapt may be constrained by a range of
structural and historical factors.
Furthermore, not only will communities’ adaptive capacities need to be increased, but
their ability to cope also needs strengthening – that is, their responsiveness in adjusting
their livelihoods flexibly to sudden and unforeseen changes.
Most study reports do not address two relevant issues. First, the nexus between the
various the vulnerability social groups and the specific climate adaptation strategy they
tend to choose needs to be explored. Second, an important component of factors
explaining pastoral communities’ choice of adaptation strategies and the degree of
adoption of a particular strategy is the cost associated with the particular strategy and the
institutional assistance received.
Hence, designing a framework for costing and estimating the cost associated with the
specific adaptation strategies is relevant needs attention in the “Action Plan of Adaptation
to Climatic Change”, in the effort towards addressing climate adaptation issues among
the most vulnerable groups and pastoral communities in general.
62
In general the livelihood and other well being's of the Afar pastoral and agro-pastoral
communities were affected by climatic change. Hence the following activities were
recommended.
• Further studies on factors that influence the livelihoods of the communities other
than climatic change
• Immediate actions on drivers of venerability to the ongoing climatic change
• Building on enabling situations and adaptive capacities of the communities
• Immediate actions is also recommended on suggested adaptation measures and
strategies on section 9 of this document
• Improvement of information and knowledge sharing is also recommended for the
dissemination of best practices to the other pastoral areas
• Livelihoods of the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities are very sensitive to
the climatic change, hence intervention and understanding of livelihood- climatic
change linkage is needed.
• Further understanding of traditional knowledge and starting an action from the
indigenous knowledge is recommended
• Implementation of development interventions that improve the livelihoods of the
pastoral communities including appropriate relief strategy and social protection is
also recommended
• Further Inventory of best practices of the pastoral and agro-pastoral community is
also needed.
63
References
Admassie and Adenew (2008). Stakeholder perceptions of climate change and
adaptation strategies in Ethiopia Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA),
Ethiopia a paper presented on workshop: How can African agriculture adapt to
climate change? Results and Conclusions for Ethiopia and beyond, Adama
Afar National Regional State (ANRS), (2003). Rural socio-economic survey report:
Methodology and findings. A strategic plan for the sustainable development,
conservation, and management of the woody biomass resources. Volume 2.
Final report. Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
Afar National Regional State (ANRS), (2004). A strategic plan for the sustainable
development, conservation, and management of the woody biomass resources.
Final report. Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
UN-Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia (2000). Afar Pastoralists Face Consequences of
Poor Rains Rapid Assessment Mission report:
UNDP- Addis Ababa (1999). Afar Region – Awash River Floods Rapid Assessment
Mission
Agrawala, S. Et. al. (2003). Development and climate change in Tanzania: Focus on
Mount Kilimanjaro. Environment Directorate and Development Cooperation
Directorate, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris.
CSA (2009/2010). Agricultural sampling survey report on area and crop production,
Addis Ababa
Ahmed, A. G. (n.d). POST-DROUGHT RECOVERY STRATEGIES AMONG THE
PASTORAL HOUSEHOLDS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA
Aklilu Amsalu & Alebachew Adem (2009). Assessment of climate change-induced
hazards, impacts and responses in the southern lowlands of Ethiopia. Forum
for Social Studies, Addis Ababa.
Ali Said (1996). Survival strategies in the Ethiopian dry lands: The case of Afar
pastoralists of the Awash Valley”, in Abdel Ghaffar M. A. and Abdel Ati H.A.
(eds.), Managing scarcity: Human adaptation in East African dry lands.
Proceedings of a regional workshop, OSSREA, Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
Ali Said (1997). Resource use conflict in the Middle Awash Valley of Ethiopia. In
Hogg (ed.), Pastoralists, ethnicity and the State in Ethiopia.
Angie Dazé, K. A. (2009). Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis. CARE
International.
Ayele Gebremariam (1986). Economic Adaptation and Competition for Scarce
Resources: The Afar in North Eastern Ethiopia. M.A. thesis submitted to
University of Bergen .
64
ANRS (2006). Rangelands and water development study, draft final report, Vol. III
Rangelands/livestock and Fodder.
DPPC, UNDP-EUE (1996). Awash River Floods (Afar Regional State): Helicopter
survey, Addis Ababa
Awulachew, S. B.; Yilma, A. D.; Loulseged, M.; Loiskandl, W., Ayana, M. &
Alamirew, T. (2007). Water Resources and Irrigation Development in
Ethiopia. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute
Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu & J.P. Palutikof, Eds., (2008). Climate Change
and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Bekele, M. (2009). Rural Poor’s Perceptions of the trends and relations of Climate.
Center, F. I. (2007). Impact Assessments of Livelihoods-based Drought Interventions
in Moyale and Dire Weredas, Ethiopia.
CSA (Central Statistical Authority) (2008). Summary and statistical report of the
2007. Population and Housing Census. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Deressa (2006). Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian
Agriculture Special Series on Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa
Discussion Paper, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa
(CEEPA) South Africa by University of Pretoria.
Fakhri A. Bazzaz & Wim G. Sombroek (2008). Global climatic change and
agricultural production: 2008 An assessment of current knowledge and critical
gaps Land and Water Development Division, and Interdepartmental Working
Group on Climate Change, FAO, Rome,
François Piguet (2001). Assessments Missions report: UN-Emergencies Unit for
Ethiopia Multi-Agency June and August Addis Abab
Funk, C. et. al. (2005). Recent drought tendencies in Ethiopia and equatorial-
subtropical eastern Africa. FEWS-NET, Washington, DC, USA.
Getachew Kassa (2001). Resource conflicts among the Afar of north-east Ethiopia. In:
Mohammed Salih et al. (eds.), African pastoralism, pp.145-171. London: Pluto
press.
Haile, T. (1988). Causes and characters of drought in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Journal of
Agricultural Sciences. 10, 85 – 97.
Central Statistical Authority (2000). Household Income Consumption and Expenditure
(HICE) surveys carried out by the
International Institute for Sustainable Development & Environmental Adaptation
Research Group (1997). Institute for Environmental Studies, University of
Toronto
IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: The third assessment report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge.
65
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary
for policy makers. Online at http://www.ipcc.cg/SPM13apr07.
IPPC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The third assessment report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge.
John Morton, David Barton, Chris Collinson & Brian Heath. (2002). comparing
drought mitigation measures in the livestock sector.
John Reilly (2007). Climate change, global agriculture and regional vulnerability
Natural Resources and Environment Division, Economic Research Service,
USDA, Washington DC, USA
Lars Otto Naess, M. S. (2009). Adaptation Strategies of Pastoral ASTORAL AND.
Joanne P., Asnake A. & Kassaye H. (2005). Livelihood Emergency Assessment in
Afar.
MacDonald (1991). Amibara Irrigation Project II, Pastoralist & Forestry Development
Studies Report. The People’s Democratic republic of Ethiopia, Water
Resources Development Authority, 2 Volumes, Addis Ababa.
MCE (2001). Rangelands/Livestock and Fodder. In rangelands and water
development study, Vol. III Part-1, Final report, August.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) (2008). Relief interventions in
pastoralist areas of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa.
Muna Mohammed (2006). Variations and trends in observed temperatures in the
Ethiopian highlands (1973-2003). Master Thesis, Addis Ababa University.
NMA (2007). National Adaptation Programme of Action of Ethiopia (NAPA). Final
draft report. National Meteorological Agency, Addis Ababa.
NMSA (2006). Agro-meteorology bulletin, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Oxfam International (2005). Livelihood/emergency assessment in Afar
Pankhurst, R. (1985). The History of Famine and Epidemics in Ethiopia Prior to the
20th Century. Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC). Ethiopia, Addis
Ababa.
PFE (2009). Pastoralist perspectives of poverty reduction programs the case of Afar
NRS.
PCDP (2005). Social analysis and indigenous livelihood strategies in Afar pastoral
community Addis Ababa
Rue Stévin (2009). Reducing Vulnerability, Enhancing resilience. CIDSE and Caritas
International. Belgium: CIDSE.
UNDP (1996). Report on Afar Region. United Nations Development Programme
Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia of Ethiopia.
Land Tenure and management Unit (NRLA) (2009). Review of evidence on dry lands
pastoral systems and climate change Implications and opportunities for
mitigation and adaptation, Discussion paper. FAO, Rome.
Robert W. (2004). Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases
Clinical microbiology review, Jan., p. 136–173 Vol. 17, No. 1
Save the Children-UK, DPPFSB, & DPPA (2008). Livelihoods and vulnerabilities. An
understanding of livelihoods in Afar Regional State, Ethiopia. Addis Ababa.
66
Tafesse Mesfin (2001).What should a pastoral development strategy constitute
towards poverty reduction among pastoral communities in Ethiopia?” in
poverty reduction strategy and pastoral development. Proceedings of national
conference on pastoral development in Ethiopia, May 22-23, 2001. Pastoralist
Forum Ethiopia. Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
The World Bank (2010). Costing Adaptation through Local Institution Village survey
results a report – Ethiopia
Twigg, J. (2007). Drought related livestock intervention.
UNFCCC. (n.d). Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in
developing countries.
Webb, P. & Braun (1994). Famine and food security in Ethiopia: Lessons for Africa.
John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
WHO (2003). The World health report 2003: Shaping the future. Geneva. World
Health Organization, Washington, D.C.
Yacob, et al. (2000). Local Capacity for Traditional Conflict Management in Ethiopia:
The Afar and Anyuae as Case Studies. A Study Conducted for the Ethiopian
Red Cross Society. Final Report. Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.Yirgalem, 2001
Yayneshet Tesfay & Kelemework Tafere (2004). Indigenous Rangeland resources and
Conflict Management bythe Drylands Coordination Group (DCG) in Ethiopia.
Guinand Y. (1999). Afar Region Awash River Floods, Rapid Assessment Mission
1999 UNDP-EUE Addis Ababa.
Yianna & Grazia (2006). Energy and Gender issue in rural sustainable Development
Information Division FAO Rome
Yilma Jobre (2005). Belg/early Meher season performance and its impacts on
agriculture (livestock and crops) and emergency needs in Afar Region, a
report, FAO
Yirgalem Assegid (2001). Challenges, opportunities and prospects of common
property resources management in the Afar pastoral areas. Shared management
of common resources programme, Farm Africa. Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
Yohanes GebreMichael & Mebratu Kifle (2009). Local innovation in climate-change
adaptation by Ethiopian pastoralists. PROLINNOVA–Ethiopia and Pastoralist
Forum Ethiopia (PFE) Final report, Addis Ababa.
Archival materials
The Ethiopian Herald, 28 August 1999, `Overflowing Awash displaces 5000'
Walta Information Center, 25 August 1999, `Minister Warns Against Dangers of
Awash Over-flooding'
News Edge Insight, 12 August 1999, `Floods Threaten Ethio-Djibouti Railway
Transport'
UNICEF (1999). Brief Report on the Flood Situation in Afar Region, informal and
internal report, UNICEF, 15 to 19 August, Addis Ababa
Ahrens J D (1996). Koka Dam - River Awash Floods; Report of joint UN Assessment
Team, UN-EUE Field Mission Report, 26 to 27 August, Addis Ababa
67
Kiflemariam A. & Ahrens, J. D. (1996). Awash River Floods (Afar Regional State):
Helicopter Survey, 5 June 1996, UN-EUE Field Mission Report, Addis Ababa
