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Advocacy versus Advocacy versus Inquiry” Inquiry” GPVEC GPVEC November 6, 2008 November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Barry Dunn Executive Director Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville Texas A&M Kingsville

“Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

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Page 1: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy versus Inquiry” Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVECGPVEC

November 6, 2008November 6, 2008Clay Center, NEClay Center, NE

Barry Dunn Barry Dunn Executive DirectorExecutive Director

King Ranch Institute of Ranch King Ranch Institute of Ranch ManagementManagement

Texas A&M KingsvilleTexas A&M Kingsville

Page 2: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry” Examples:Examples:

Decline in “Choice” cattle caused by X, Y, Decline in “Choice” cattle caused by X, Y, and Z!and Z!

Ethanol is good energy policy!Ethanol is good energy policy! Inter-enterprise transfers should be at Inter-enterprise transfers should be at

market because of opportunity cost.market because of opportunity cost. Shouldn’t calve in the ________.Shouldn’t calve in the ________. Genomics are better than EPD’s. Genomics are better than EPD’s. Manure samples are a good predictor of diet Manure samples are a good predictor of diet

quality and can be used in determining quality and can be used in determining supplementation programsupplementation program

?? ??

Page 3: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry” Where we see it:Where we see it:

AAdvocating Status Quo dvocating Status Quo Enterprise analysis vs. managerial accountingEnterprise analysis vs. managerial accounting Production systemsProduction systems

Advocating self interestAdvocating self interest $$ StatusStatus CareerCareer

Misuse of informationMisuse of information StupidityStupidity NegligenceNegligence Strategic Strategic

Page 4: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry” Insidious problem in management!Insidious problem in management! Why:Why:

Nature of who we are:Nature of who we are: BoldBold DecisiveDecisive

Information age:Information age: Lots of it!Lots of it! Wide skill set needed to interpret.Wide skill set needed to interpret.

Reward systems value decisive leaders Reward systems value decisive leaders who can support decision with data who can support decision with data

Page 5: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Story #1Story #1

Factors that affect % of Factors that affect % of choice cattle in the market choice cattle in the market

place.place.

Page 6: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 7: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 8: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 9: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 10: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 11: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 12: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Problem #1Problem #1

Inadequate understanding of Inadequate understanding of statistics!statistics!

Page 13: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Story #2 Story #2

I know the best time to calve I know the best time to calve the cows!the cows!

Page 14: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Actual Results for King Ranch Calving Season

SpringCalving

Fall Calving

Dual Calving

Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium

PG % Lowest Highest Medium

Cow Cost/hd, $

Highest Low Lowest

Net Income, $

? ? ?

Page 15: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Actual Results for King Ranch Calving Season

SpringCalving

Fall Calving

Dual Calving

Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium

PG % Lowest Highest Medium

Cow Cost/hd, $

Highest Low Low

Net Income, $

Should be Lowest

Should be High

Should be Medium

Page 16: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season

SpringCalving

Fall Calving

Dual Calving

Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium

PG % Lowest Highest Medium

Cow Cost/hd, $

Highest Low Low

Net Income,$ Lowest High + High

Page 17: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season

Payne et al, 2008

SpringCalving

Fall Calving

Dual Calving

Wean Wt, lb Lowest High Medium

PG % Lowest Highest Medium

Cow Cost/hd, $

Highest Low Low

Net Income,$ Lowest High + High

Investment,$ Highest High Very Low

Page 18: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season

Payne et al, 2008

SpringCalving

Fall Calving

Dual Calving

Wean Wt, lb Lowest High Medium

PG % Lowest Highest Medium

Cow Cost/hd, $

Highest Low Low

Net Income,$ Lowest High + High

Investment,$ Highest High Very Low

ROI Lowest High High +

Page 19: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season

Payne et al, 2008

SpringCalving

Fall Calving

Dual Calving

Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium

PG % Lowest Highest Medium

Cow Cost/hd, $

Highest Low Low

Net Income,$ Lowest High High

Variability NI High High Very Low

Investment,$ Highest High Very Low

Variability Invt.

Very High High Very Low

ROI Lowest High Highest

Variability, ROI

High Very High Very Low

Page 20: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season

Payne et al, 2008

SpringCalving

Fall Calving

Dual Calving

Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium

PG % Lowest Highest Medium

Cow Cost/hd, $

Highest Low Low

Net Income,$ Lowest High High

Variability NI High High Very Low

Investment,$ Highest High Very Low

Variability Invt.

Very High High Very Low

ROI Lowest High Highest

Variability, ROI

High Very High Very Low

Page 21: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Problem #2Problem #2

We don’t analyze deep We don’t analyze deep enough!enough!

Page 22: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Story #3Story #3

Cow Efficiency:Cow Efficiency:

Big cows are less efficient thanBig cows are less efficient than

little cows! little cows!

Page 23: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Energy

Efficiency

High Bio Prod Cows

Low Bio Prod Cows

Jenkins and Ferrill, JAS 1993

Cow Efficiency

Page 24: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Problem #3Problem #3

Don’t know and understand Don’t know and understand the literature!the literature!

Page 25: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Story #4Story #4

Cow productivity is Cow productivity is increasing! increasing!

My cow’s calves weaning My cow’s calves weaning weights are going up! weights are going up!

Page 26: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Reality Check!Reality Check!Reality Check!Reality Check! Avg. Weaning Weights of South Dakota Avg. Weaning Weights of South Dakota

Calves: Calves: Data collected from 497 ranches, 1978-79= Data collected from 497 ranches, 1978-79= 484lbs 484lbs

Dooley et al., 1982Dooley et al., 1982

8 years of Farm Mgt. data, 1986-93 = 8 years of Farm Mgt. data, 1986-93 = 496 lbs.496 lbs. Hoyt & Odekoven, 1994Hoyt & Odekoven, 1994

45 SPA herds 1996-99 = 45 SPA herds 1996-99 = 487 lbs.487 lbs. Dunn, Dunn,

20002000

Avg. Weaning Weights of South Dakota Avg. Weaning Weights of South Dakota Calves: Calves: Data collected from 497 ranches, 1978-79= Data collected from 497 ranches, 1978-79= 484lbs 484lbs

Dooley et al., 1982Dooley et al., 1982

8 years of Farm Mgt. data, 1986-93 = 8 years of Farm Mgt. data, 1986-93 = 496 lbs.496 lbs. Hoyt & Odekoven, 1994Hoyt & Odekoven, 1994

45 SPA herds 1996-99 = 45 SPA herds 1996-99 = 487 lbs.487 lbs. Dunn, Dunn,

20002000

Page 27: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Problem #4Problem #4

Anecdotes form foundationAnecdotes form foundation

of our beliefs leading to of our beliefs leading to inappropriate (and irrelevant) inappropriate (and irrelevant)

conclusions! conclusions!

Page 28: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

ProblemsProblems1.1. Don’t know and understand Don’t know and understand

principles of statisticsprinciples of statistics If you are going to give a “Mean,” you If you are going to give a “Mean,” you

better give the “Range” and better give the “Range” and “Variance”!“Variance”!

If you say two numbers are different, If you say two numbers are different, better know the confidence interval!better know the confidence interval!

2.2. Don’t dig deep!Don’t dig deep!

3.3. Don’t know literature!Don’t know literature!

4.4. Based on anecdotes, opinions Based on anecdotes, opinions become facts!become facts!

Page 29: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

So What?So What?

Other than who’s right, Other than who’s right,

what’s the problem? what’s the problem?

Page 30: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Advocacy without w/o appropriate Advocacy without w/o appropriate inquiry leads to failure in management!inquiry leads to failure in management!

Problem #1, Misuse of statisticsProblem #1, Misuse of statistics Misunderstand realityMisunderstand reality

Problem #2, Not going deepProblem #2, Not going deep Draw misleading conclusions Draw misleading conclusions

Problem #3, Don’t know the Problem #3, Don’t know the literatureliterature Repeat past mistakesRepeat past mistakes

Problem #4, AnecdotesProblem #4, Anecdotes Incomplete info leads to wrong path Incomplete info leads to wrong path

Page 31: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Failure in management results in:Failure in management results in: Inappropriate investment of Inappropriate investment of

scarce resources. scarce resources.

Inappropriate communication Inappropriate communication throughout “system” (company).throughout “system” (company).

Irresponsible decisions.Irresponsible decisions.

Failure Failure (in ag, long delays mask (in ag, long delays mask responsibility)responsibility)

Page 32: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Ladder of InferenceSenge et al, 1994

Observable data and experience

Select data fromwhat we observe

Add meaning from

background

Make assumptions

DrawConclusions

Adopt beliefs

Take action

Page 33: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Ladder of InferenceSenge et al, 1994

Observable data and experience

Select data fromwhat we observe

Add meaning from

background

Make assumptions

DrawConclusions

Adopt beliefs

Take action

Our beliefs affect the data we selectand reinforces ourbelief systems and biases

Page 34: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

AD

VO

CA

CY

HIGHLOW By-Standing Politicking

DiscussAssert

Explain

Adopted fromSenge et al, 1994

Page 35: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

INQUIRY

HIGH

Sensing

Anecdotes

Statistics

Test

Literature

LOW

Adopted fromSenge et al, 1994

Stories

Trends

Page 36: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

INQUIRY

AD

VO

CA

CY

HIGH

HIGHLOW By-Standing

Sensing

Anecdotes

Statistics

Politicking

Discuss

Test

Literature

Assert

Explain

LOW

Adopted fromSenge et al, 1994

Stories

Trends

Page 37: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

INQUIRY

AD

VO

CA

CY

HIGH

HIGHLOW By-Standing

Sensing

Anecdotes

Statistics

Politicking

Discuss

Test

Literature

Assert

Explain

LOW

Adopted fromSenge et al, 1994

Stories

Trends

Page 38: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Tools for UnderstandingTools for Understanding

LiteratureLiterature StatisticsStatistics Evaluation toolsEvaluation tools Systems thinkingSystems thinking Systems dynamics Systems dynamics

Page 39: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Let’s have adiscussion!

Page 40: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Successful Ranching in the 21Successful Ranching in the 21stst Century: Putting the Puzzle Century: Putting the Puzzle

Together”Together”

Page 41: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Modern Times

Page 42: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 43: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

OverviewOverview

Dollars and CentsDollars and Cents InvestmentInvestment MarketingMarketing ProductionProduction ExpensesExpenses Pts of Pts of

Diminishing Diminishing ReturnsReturns

Strategic Mgt.Strategic Mgt. Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning Scenario PlanningScenario Planning Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard Why should you use Why should you use

themthem How do they workHow do they work

Page 44: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Dollars and Cents!Dollars and Cents!

Page 45: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Investment Production

ExpensesMarketing

Page 46: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

SPA Comparison SPA Comparison Dunn, 2000 Dunn, 2000

n=148

Low Medium High

lbs. weaned/Cow exposed

413 455 455

Investment, $/Cow 1538g 2308h 1397g

Total exp., $/Cow 638d 387e 270f

Total rev., $/Cow 390g 423g 495h

Net Income, $/Cow -247a 36b 225c abcMeans with uncommon superscripts differ (P<.01) defMeans with uncommon superscripts differ (P<.05) gh Means with uncommon superscripts differ (P<.10)

Page 47: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

SummarySummary

What are the Characteristics of High Profit What are the Characteristics of High Profit Producers?Producers?

1.1. Large operatorsLarge operators2.2. OlderOlder3.3. Inherited wealthInherited wealth4.4. Operate on Federal landOperate on Federal land5.5. Retain ownershipRetain ownership6.6. Operated in the western rangelandsOperated in the western rangelandsX

Page 48: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

SummarySummary When compared to Low or Medium, When compared to Low or Medium,

High profit enterprises have: High profit enterprises have: Higher weaning %Higher weaning % No differences in:No differences in:

Weaning weightWeaning weight Death lossDeath loss Pregnancy %Pregnancy % Replacement rateReplacement rate Calving distributionCalving distribution

No differences in size of operation or No differences in size of operation or region.region.

Page 49: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

SummarySummary

High profit ranches have: High profit ranches have: Lower Investment (High & Low vs. Lower Investment (High & Low vs.

Medium) Medium) Lower Total costs Lower Total costs

Lower Vet Med (High & Medium vs. Low)Lower Vet Med (High & Medium vs. Low) Lower DepreciationLower Depreciation Lower Inventory Adjustments (High & Lower Inventory Adjustments (High &

Medium vs. Low)Medium vs. Low) Lower Breakeven (UCOP)Lower Breakeven (UCOP) Greater RevenueGreater Revenue Greater Net Income Greater Net Income

Page 50: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Profit is a Set of RelationshipsProfit is a Set of Relationships

Investment in assets

(Land, Cattle,Equipment)

Production System

Value in the MarketPlace

AnnualExpenses

Page 51: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Investment Production

ExpensesMarketing

Page 52: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Production Function

Inputs

Outputs

Rational Business Behavior

Case & Fair, 1996

Page 53: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Strategic ManagementStrategic Management

Page 54: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning

Part of a management process Part of a management process designed to increase successdesigned to increase success

Widely used in businesses of all Widely used in businesses of all types, and sizes, all over the worldtypes, and sizes, all over the world

Relatively new to ranchingRelatively new to ranching Not hard, but requires discipline Not hard, but requires discipline

Page 55: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Scenario PlanningScenario Planning

Part of a management process Part of a management process designed to increase successdesigned to increase success

Relatively new in business, but used Relatively new in business, but used in all types, sizes, all over the worldin all types, sizes, all over the world

Very new to ranchingVery new to ranching Not hard, but requires dedication Not hard, but requires dedication

Page 56: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard

Designed to tie strategy to Designed to tie strategy to performanceperformance

Much like a report cardMuch like a report card Build it top downBuild it top down Works bottom upWorks bottom up Assigns specific metrics to Assigns specific metrics to

measure successmeasure success Assigns responsibilityAssigns responsibility

Page 57: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Combining Strategic Planning and Combining Strategic Planning and Scenario Planning and Scenario Planning and the Balanced Scorecardthe Balanced Scorecard

A new concept in business that A new concept in business that combines the positive forces of combines the positive forces of planning and reporting processes to planning and reporting processes to help improve the success of your ranchhelp improve the success of your ranch

Page 58: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Why Now?Why Now?

Because the business of ranching is Because the business of ranching is facing a period of unparalleled levels facing a period of unparalleled levels of change in the core aspects of its of change in the core aspects of its

business!business!•

MarketplacMarketplacee

DemandDemandPrice Price CostsCostsAccessAccessExportsExports

• VolatilityVolatility FeedFeed FuelFuel Cattle Cattle

• PolicyPolicyEthanolEthanolTaxTaxTradeTrade

Page 59: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

KRIRM 5 Stage ProcessKRIRM 5 Stage Process

Stage 1: Charting the courseStage 1: Charting the course

Stage 2: Strategies to achieve visionStage 2: Strategies to achieve vision

Stage 3: Scenario planning for the Stage 3: Scenario planning for the ranchranch

Stage 4: Merging the 2 planning Stage 4: Merging the 2 planning processesprocesses

Stage 5: Putting the plan into action Stage 5: Putting the plan into action and and measuring success measuring success

Page 60: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Stage 1: Charting the CourseStage 1: Charting the Course

Page 61: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Charting the CourseCharting the Course Step 1: Assess the situation and Step 1: Assess the situation and

inventory resources:inventory resources: FinancialFinancial Natural resources Natural resources Physical resourcesPhysical resources Human ResourcesHuman Resources

Goal is to get a handle on the Goal is to get a handle on the entire picture in terms of #s and entire picture in terms of #s and conditioncondition

Page 62: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Charting the CourseCharting the Course

Step 2: Conduct SWOT analysisStep 2: Conduct SWOT analysis SStrengthstrengths WWeaknesseseaknesses OOpportunitiespportunities TThreatshreats

Page 63: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

SWOTSWOTStrengths Weaknesses

Opportunities Threats

Page 64: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Value of Value of SWOTSWOT

Can be used on the whole ranch or Can be used on the whole ranch or partpart

Proactive: used before action is Proactive: used before action is takentaken

Helps in objectivityHelps in objectivity Creates discussionCreates discussion It helps develop an objective It helps develop an objective

inventory of realistic “potential”inventory of realistic “potential” Balances “half full” vs. “half empty” Balances “half full” vs. “half empty”

Page 65: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Charting the CourseCharting the Course

Step 3: Establish a VisionStep 3: Establish a Vision Should include:Should include:

Values and reason for beingValues and reason for being Envisioned futureEnvisioned future Recognition of how it serves its Recognition of how it serves its

stakeholdersstakeholders OwnersOwners EmployeesEmployees Customers Customers

Page 66: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Charting the CourseCharting the Course

Step 3: Establish a VisionStep 3: Establish a Vision Should address Should address

Time: 5-10 yearsTime: 5-10 years Energy: Through language , a vision Energy: Through language , a vision

statement should inspirestatement should inspire Cooperation: should encourage Cooperation: should encourage

cooperation and creativity cooperation and creativity

Page 67: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Charting the CourseCharting the Course

Step 3: Establish a VisionStep 3: Establish a Vision The process: The process:

Allow yourself to dreamAllow yourself to dream Everyone should be involvedEveryone should be involved SharedShared Comments from outsidersComments from outsiders Key questions: Key questions:

““What do we want?”What do we want?” ““What are we willing to commit to?”What are we willing to commit to?”

Page 68: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

““We progressively realize multigenerational We progressively realize multigenerational goals in a fun, challenging, encouraging goals in a fun, challenging, encouraging

environment and continually improve environment and continually improve people, products, services, the ranch, our people, products, services, the ranch, our

community, and the ecosystem while community, and the ecosystem while sustaining a net profit.”sustaining a net profit.”

Page 69: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Stage 2: Determining Strategies to Stage 2: Determining Strategies to Achieve VisionAchieve Vision

Page 70: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Determining Strategies to Achieve Determining Strategies to Achieve VisionVision

Step 4: GAP AnalysisStep 4: GAP Analysis Vision vs. current state Vision vs. current state How does vision fit with resources?How does vision fit with resources? How does business measure up?How does business measure up? How different is current culture How different is current culture

compared to what is needed?compared to what is needed?

Page 71: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 72: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 73: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Determining Strategies to Achieve Determining Strategies to Achieve VisionVision

Step 5: Strategies to close GAP Step 5: Strategies to close GAP Find new resourcesFind new resources Reallocate resourcesReallocate resources Lengthen timeLengthen time Modify size or scopeModify size or scope

Page 74: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Stage 3: Scenario Planning for the Stage 3: Scenario Planning for the RanchRanch

Page 75: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 76: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Technology Continues To ImproveTechnology Continues To Improve

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Corn

Yie

ld

(Bu

./A

cre)

.

Harvest Year

U.S. Corn Yield

Actual Yield

Trend Yield

Source: USDA & K-State Ag. Econ.WASDE Report: 10.12.07

2004 Yield = 160 bu./ac2005 Yield= 148 bu./ac2006 Yield= 149.1 bu./ac2007 Yield = 154.7 bu./ac.2008 Trend Yield = 156.7 bu./ac.

KSU Dept. of Ag Econwww.agmanager.info

Page 77: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Reactive Reactive

WHERE WE AREPast Now Future

WHERE WE WANT TO BE

PLAN

REACTIVE

Ackoff, 1999

Page 78: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 79: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Preactive Preactive

WHERE WE AREPast Now Future

WHERE WE WANT TO BE

PLAN

PREACTIVE

Set Objectives

Predict

Akcoff, 1999

Page 80: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Questions for 2009:Questions for 2009:

What will commodity prices do?What will commodity prices do?

Will beef demand keep cattle prices up?Will beef demand keep cattle prices up?

What will be new administrations policyWhat will be new administrations policytowards _____?towards _____?

Page 81: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 82: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Corn Usage Estimates Corn Usage Estimates (Millions of Bushels)(Millions of Bushels)

USDA/WASDE USDA/WASDE USDA/WASDEUSDA/WASDE

2006/072006/07 2007/08 est. 2007/08 est.

Feed and ResidualFeed and Residual 5,6005,600 5,700 5,7001 1 (+2%)(+2%) Ethanol for FuelEthanol for Fuel 2,1152,115 3,200 3,200 (+51%)(+51%) ExportsExports 2,1252,125 2,350 2,350

(+11%)(+11%)

Ending StocksEnding Stocks 1,3041,304 1,997 1,997 (+53%)(+53%)

Total UsageTotal Usage 11,210 11,210 12,640 12,640 (+16%)(+16%)

1 1 Assumes DDGS retain 30% of the feed value of corn and are included in the feed and residual category by the Assumes DDGS retain 30% of the feed value of corn and are included in the feed and residual category by the USDA. USDA.

Page 83: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Interactive Interactive

WHERE WE AREPast Now Future

WHERE WE WANT TO BE

INTERACTIVE

PLAN

Akcoff, 1999

Idealized Design

Page 84: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville
Page 85: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Scenario Planning for the Scenario Planning for the RanchRanch

Step 6: Describe Multiple ScenariosStep 6: Describe Multiple Scenarios List “what ifs” that relate to your ranchList “what ifs” that relate to your ranch 6 to 106 to 10 A scenario is not: A scenario is not:

““Peace in the Middle East.”Peace in the Middle East.” ““Global warming will raise sea levels.”Global warming will raise sea levels.”

A scenario is:A scenario is: ““The price of oil will rise”The price of oil will rise” ““The price of hunting leases will level off.”The price of hunting leases will level off.”

Page 86: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Stage 3: Scenario Planning for the Stage 3: Scenario Planning for the RanchRanch

Step 7: Select and evaluate the Step 7: Select and evaluate the most probablemost probable Choose 2-4Choose 2-4 These can be tied to a SWOT analysisThese can be tied to a SWOT analysis These can be tied to GAPThese can be tied to GAP Collect objective informationCollect objective information Flesh out each with a paragraphFlesh out each with a paragraph

Page 87: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Stage 4: Merging Strategies and Stage 4: Merging Strategies and Scenario PlanningScenario Planning

Page 88: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Merging Strategies and Scenario Merging Strategies and Scenario PlanningPlanning

Step 8: Determine strategies with Step 8: Determine strategies with highest likely hood of successhighest likely hood of success

Scenario Scenario 1:1:

High feed $High feed $

Scenario Scenario 2:2:

Good Beef Good Beef Demand Demand

Scenario 3Scenario 3High Oil $High Oil $

Scenario 4Scenario 4??

ProductionStrategy 1 Strategy 2

+0

+-

+-

-0

FinancialStrategy 1 Strategy 2

-+

00

++

-+

LifestyleStrategy 1 Strategy 2

++

+0

+-

+-

Page 89: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Stage 5: Putting the Plan into Stage 5: Putting the Plan into Action and Measuring SuccessAction and Measuring Success

Page 90: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Putting the Plan into Action and Putting the Plan into Action and Measuring SuccessMeasuring Success

Step 9: Implementation of the planStep 9: Implementation of the plan Two critical componentsTwo critical components

CommitmentCommitment Communication Communication

Develop tactical and operational plansDevelop tactical and operational plans Who Who WhatWhat WhenWhen WhereWhere How How

Page 91: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Putting the Plan into Action and Putting the Plan into Action and Measuring SuccessMeasuring Success

Step 10: Monitoring performance Step 10: Monitoring performance and measuring successand measuring success Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard

Identify perspectivesIdentify perspectives Copy strategiesCopy strategies Set realistic goalsSet realistic goals Decide on when you will measureDecide on when you will measure Decide how you will measureDecide how you will measure Report out Report out

Page 92: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Balanced Scorecard Balanced Scorecard

Perspectives with Strategic Objectives for BOD

Goal Actual

Quality of Life + 3rd Gen Yes

Financial 10% ROE 10%

Customer OCB + Yes

Production500 Lbs/ Female

550

Natural Resources + Trend Yes

Leaning and GrowthCSU

WorkshopYes

Page 93: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Balanced Scorecard Balanced Scorecard

Perspectives with Strategic Objectives for BOD

Goal Actual

Quality of Life + 3rd Gen Yes

Financial 10% ROE 10%

Customer OCB + Yes

Production500 Lbs/ Female

550

Natural Resources + Trend Yes

Leaning and GrowthCSU

WorkshopYes

Page 94: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts

You must put the puzzle together!You must put the puzzle together! This is the time for strategic This is the time for strategic

management!management! Strategic planningStrategic planning Scenario planningScenario planning Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard

Both are doable!Both are doable!

Page 95: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

1. Is this a sunrise2. Or sunset?

Page 96: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

“We educate the leaders that make a

difference in Ranching”

• Graduate education• Outreach

• Lectureships• Symposia• Certificate program

Page 97: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Only MS Degree in Only MS Degree in Ranch Management in the WorldRanch Management in the World

Course workCourse work BusinessBusiness Animal ScienceAnimal Science Wildlife Management Wildlife Management Range Management Range Management

2 Internships2 Internships Extra curricularExtra curricular Problem solvingProblem solving

Page 98: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Course WorkCourse Work

StatisticsStatistics Systems Systems Range Livestock Range Livestock

ProductionProduction Ranch Planning and Ranch Planning and

Analysis Analysis Ruminant NutritionRuminant Nutrition Rangeland Rangeland

MeasurementsMeasurements

GeneticsGenetics Managerial Managerial

AccountingAccounting Finance Finance MarketingMarketing Student ChoiceStudent Choice

SoilsSoils Big Game Big Game

Page 99: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

2 Internships2 Internships

SummerSummer Last SemesterLast Semester Goals:Goals:

Work under mentorWork under mentor Different geographyDifferent geography AnalyzeAnalyze

Page 100: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Extra CurricularExtra Curricular

LectureshipsLectureships SymposiumsSymposiums

Co-author articleCo-author article CertificatesCertificates

UT in Business Process Mgt.UT in Business Process Mgt. K-State MASTK-State MAST

Short coursesShort courses Quail Mgt.Quail Mgt. ““Bud Williams”Bud Williams”

Page 101: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

ProblemsProblems Should I plant farm ground back to Should I plant farm ground back to

grass?grass? Should I sell part of my ranch?Should I sell part of my ranch? Economic selection index for my ranch?Economic selection index for my ranch? How should I develop my heifers?How should I develop my heifers? How should I manage my ranch?How should I manage my ranch? Should I close my feedlot and sell Should I close my feedlot and sell

calves and grain?calves and grain? Apply Balanced Scorecard to ranch.Apply Balanced Scorecard to ranch. Should I change time of calving?Should I change time of calving?

Page 102: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

LectureshipsLectureships

StrategicStrategic Cover weaknessesCover weaknesses DynamicDynamic EndowedEndowed

10 Topics10 Topics

Prescribed BurningPrescribed Burning Managerial AccountingManagerial Accounting Strategic ManagementStrategic Management Equine ManagementEquine Management GISGIS Grazing ManagementGrazing Management Systems Systems Oil and GasOil and Gas Current issuesCurrent issues LawLaw

Page 103: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

SymposiumSymposium Just held 5Just held 5thth

16 States16 States 5 Foreign Countries5 Foreign Countries

Topics are about managementTopics are about management Strategic managementStrategic management Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard Transitioning ranch ownershipTransitioning ranch ownership HRHR Adopting Technology Adopting Technology

Last Thursday and Friday of October Last Thursday and Friday of October

Page 104: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Certificate ProgramCertificate Program

““Commit to Life Long Learning”Commit to Life Long Learning” Umbrella over:Umbrella over:

LectureshipsLectureships SymposiaSymposia

2 Symposiums and 4 2 Symposiums and 4 Lectureships in 3 years Lectureships in 3 years

CE CreditsCE Credits Net workingNet working

Page 105: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Early SuccessEarly Success

7 graduates7 graduates 4 in management positions on ranches4 in management positions on ranches 1 Faculty member at Univ. MO1 Faculty member at Univ. MO 1 area range conservationist with NRCS1 area range conservationist with NRCS 1 liaison between Texas Parks and Wildlife and 140 1 liaison between Texas Parks and Wildlife and 140

ranchersranchers 8 students currently8 students currently

2 have interviewed2 have interviewed Recruiting moreRecruiting more

Page 106: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

Early SuccessEarly Success

$10.6 million endowment$10.6 million endowment Line Item Funding from LegislatureLine Item Funding from Legislature Degree Program ApprovedDegree Program Approved 1 Certificate Awarded1 Certificate Awarded Created a “Buzz”Created a “Buzz” Building partnershipsBuilding partnerships

TNCTNC NCBANCBA Ranches across the westRanches across the west

Page 107: “Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVEC November 6, 2008 Clay Center, NE Barry Dunn Executive Director King Ranch Institute of Ranch Management Texas A&M Kingsville

http://krirm.tamuk.edu/