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8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
1/37
::
Jmjiwrgr `l Igmdj _dij{g`mragu jmk Odw`mkJmjiwrgr `l Igmdj _dij{g`mragu jmk Odw`mk
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
2/37
??
Ztjm{g{j{g|d juur`jbad {`Ztjm{g{j{g|d juur`jbad {`
`bgji rddjrba`bgji rddjrba [s` ujrjkgcf gm {ad ztjm{g{j{g|d {tkw[s` ujrjkgcf gm {ad ztjm{g{j{g|d {tkw
B`rrdij{g`mji {tkw `m gmkg|gktji kglldrdmbd8B`rrdij{g`mji {tkw `m gmkg|gktji kglldrdmbd8 j{{dfu{ {` bijrglw {ad kglldrdmbd jf`mc gmkg|gktji owj{{dfu{ {` bijrglw {ad kglldrdmbd jf`mc gmkg|gktji ow
{tkwgmc mj{trjiiw `bbtrrgmc rdij{g`magu jf`mc |jrgjoid{tkwgmc mj{trjiiw `bbtrrgmc rdij{g`magu jf`mc |jrgjoid
Fjh`r kj{j jmjiw{gb ur`bdktrd8Fjh`r kj{j jmjiw{gb ur`bdktrd8 _dcrdg`m_dcrdg`m jmkjmk RDFRDF
Dqudrgfdm{ji {tkw `m cr`tu kglldrdmbd8Dqudrgfdm{ji {tkw `m cr`tu kglldrdmbd8 j{{dfu{ {` fjmgutij{d jmk b`m{r`i |jrgjoid gm ijo`rj{`rwj{{dfu{ {` fjmgutij{d jmk b`m{r`i |jrgjoid gm ijo`rj{`rw
d{{gmc) gm dll`r{ {` kgb`|dr cdmdrji ijs {aj{ s`tik juuiwd{{gmc) gm dll`r{ {` kgb`|dr cdmdrji ijs {aj{ s`tik juuiw{` jii gmkg|gktji{` jii gmkg|gktji
Fjh`r kj{j jmjiw{gb ur`bdktrd8 _dcrdg`m jmkFjh`r kj{j jmjiw{gb ur`bdktrd8 _dcrdg`m jmk JM@\JJM@\Jjmkjmk JMB@\JJMB@\J
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
3/37
22
88
igmdjr rdij{g`maguigmdjr rdij{g`magu
W6oq.jW6oq.j oo w/qw/qQQ WW
:7:15:35:
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
4/37
;;
Q WQ WQQ WWQQ WWQQ
WW W QW Q
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
5/37
Igmdjr rdij{g`magu8 Ojgb b`mbdu{Igmdjr rdij{g`magu8 Ojgb b`mbdu{
Q
b`|!q)w'
RKq?
Q
W
RKw?
Q
b`|!q)w'
RKq?
Q
W
RKw?
M
WWQQ ''!!B`|jrgjmbd
6
wq
qw
wq RRRR
RU
WWQQ
WWQQ
rr
wq 6
66
?? '!'!
''!!')b`|!Q W !QW' qwqw jQoW -- .6
W Q !WQ' wqwq jWoQ -- .6
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
6/37
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
7/37
33
!'
:-55 -35-77
-;5-
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
8/37
11
Rudjrfjm rjmn `rkdrRudjrfjm rjmn `rkdrb`rrdij{g`m b`dllgbgdm{b`rrdij{g`m b`dllgbgdm{ _a`_a` rr
u`gm{&ogdrgji b`rrdij{g`mu`gm{&ogdrgji b`rrdij{g`m QQ WW
':!
RDR{jmkjrk drr`r `l d{gfj{d> RDd{d{ [ad f`rd {ad[ad f`rd {ad
agcadr {ad :agcadr {ad :
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
18/37
:1:1
Juuigbj{g`m {` {ad`gdrJuuigbj{g`m {` {ad`gdr
dquijmj{g`mdquijmj{g`m B`mbdu{tjigxj{g`m {` {ad kglldrdmbdB`mbdu{tjigxj{g`m {` {ad kglldrdmbd
[ad jogig{w {` fjnd bjtj{g|d jmk dquijmj{`rw[ad jogig{w {` fjnd bjtj{g|d jmk dquijmj{`rwgm{drurd{j{g`m g kd{drfgmdk urgfjrgiw ow {ad kdgcm `lgm{drurd{j{g`m g kd{drfgmdk urgfjrgiw ow {ad kdgcm `l{ad kj{j b`iidb{g`m jmk {ad i`cgb `l {ad rdj`mgmc rj{adr{ad kj{j b`iidb{g`m jmk {ad i`cgb `l {ad rdj`mgmc rj{adr
{ajm ow {ad ur`bdktrd l`r jmjiwxgmc {ad kj{j{ajm ow {ad ur`bdktrd l`r jmjiwxgmc {ad kj{j Gmbitkgmc jmk kr`uugmc urdkgb{`r |jrgjoid aj {` odGmbitkgmc jmk kr`uugmc urdkgb{`r |jrgjoid aj {` od
tmkdr gm o`{a drg`t {ad`rd{gbji b`mgkdrj{g`m `r kj{jtmkdr gm o`{a drg`t {ad`rd{gbji b`mgkdrj{g`m `r kj{jjmjiwg ur`bdktrdjmjiwg ur`bdktrd
[s` fjgm {jn[s` fjgm {jn
Gkdm{glwgmc {a`d ljb{`r sg{a sagba g b`&`bbtrGkdm{glwgmc {a`d ljb{`r sg{a sagba g b`&`bbtr _tigmc `t{ uijtgoid ji{drmj{g|d bjtji dquijmj{g`m_tigmc `t{ uijtgoid ji{drmj{g|d bjtji dquijmj{g`m
tgmc {j{g{gbji b`m{r`i gm{djk `l dqudrgfdm{ji b`m{r`itgmc {j{g{gbji b`m{r`i gm{djk `l dqudrgfdm{ji b`m{r`i
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
19/37
:7:7
Gm{dud{j{g`mr l` utu`rdrGm{dud{j{g`mr l` utu`rdr
`l {ad`d{gbji dquijmj{g`m`l {ad`d{gbji dquijmj{g`m Jbbtrjbw `l dquijmj{g`mJbbtrjbw `l dquijmj{g`m
Fti{guid b`rrdij{g`m b`dllgbgdm{ !_'Fti{guid b`rrdij{g`m b`dllgbgdm{ !_'
B`dllgbgdm{ `l fti{guid kd{drfgmj{g`m !_B`dllgbgdm{ `l fti{guid kd{drfgmj{g`m !_??''
Rgcmglgbjmbd {d{ l`r _Rgcmglgbjmbd {d{ l`r _?? ow JM@\Jow JM@\J
Gmkdudmkdm{ b`m{rgot{g`m jmk {j{g{gbji b`m{r`iGmkdudmkdm{ b`m{rgot{g`m jmk {j{g{gbji b`m{r`i B`rrdij{g`m b`dllgbgdm{B`rrdij{g`m b`dllgbgdm{
Lgr{&`rkdr) ujr{gji) ujr{ b`dllgbgdm{Lgr{&`rkdr) ujr{gji) ujr{ b`dllgbgdm{
Ujr{gji rdcrdg`m b`dllgbgdm{Ujr{gji rdcrdg`m b`dllgbgdm{ _js `r R{jmkjrkgxdk b`dllgbgdm{_js `r R{jmkjrkgxdk b`dllgbgdm{
_dij{g|d gfu`r{jmbd `l urdkgb{`r_dij{g|d gfu`r{jmbd `l urdkgb{`r
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
20/37
?5?5
Ojrgb jrrtfu{g`mr {`Ojrgb jrrtfu{g`mr {`
dcdrrg`mdcdrrg`m
Jtfu{g`mJtfu{g`m Jtfu{g`m l`r rdgktji !drr`r b`rd'Jtfu{g`m l`r rdgktji !drr`r b`rd'
Xdr` FdjmXdr` Fdjm A`f`bdkj{gbA`f`bdkj{gb Gmkdudmkdmbd sg{a urdkgb{`rGmkdudmkdmbd sg{a urdkgb{`r M`rfjig{wM`rfjig{w
Jtfu{g`m l`r udbglgbj{g`m drr`rJtfu{g`m l`r udbglgbj{g`m drr`r Igmdjr rdij{g`maguIgmdjr rdij{g`magu Jii rdid|jm{ urdkgb{`r ft{ od gmbitkdkJii rdid|jm{ urdkgb{`r ft{ od gmbitkdk M` grrdid|jm{ urdkgb{`r bjm od gmbitkdkM` grrdid|jm{ urdkgb{`r bjm od gmbitkdk
Jtfu{g`m l`r fdjtrdfdm{ drr`rJtfu{g`m l`r fdjtrdfdm{ drr`r _did|jm{ fdjtrdfdm{ ur`bdktrd jmk |jrgjoid_did|jm{ fdjtrdfdm{ ur`bdktrd jmk |jrgjoid
didb{g`mdidb{g`m Ur`|gkdmbd `l {ad c``kmd gmkdq `l fdjtrdfdm{Ur`|gkdmbd `l {ad c``kmd gmkdq `l fdjtrdfdm{
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
21/37
?:?:
Grrtdr gm _dcdrrg`mGrrtdr gm _dcdrrg`m
Fti{gb`iigmdjrg{wFti{gb`iigmdjrg{w [ad`rd{gbji gtd[ad`rd{gbji gtd Jmjiw{gb `r [dbamgbji gtdJmjiw{gb `r [dbamgbji gtd Fdjtrdfdm{ gtdFdjtrdfdm{ gtd
Bj{dc`rgbji |jrgjoid j urdkgb{`rBj{dc`rgbji |jrgjoid j urdkgb{`r Dlldb{ b`kgmcDlldb{ b`kgmc Ktffw b`kgmcKtffw b`kgmc
[wud `l rdcrdg`m jmjiwg[wud `l rdcrdg`m jmjiwg Kd{drfgmj{g`m l didb{g`m ur`bdktrd l urdkgb{`rKd{drfgmj{g`m l didb{g`m ur`bdktrd l urdkgb{`r
Rgfti{jmd`t rdcrdg`mRgfti{jmd`t rdcrdg`m
R{dusgd rdcrdg`mR{dusgd rdcrdg`m Agdrjrbagbji rdcrdg`mAgdrjrbagbji rdcrdg`m
B`m{r`iigmc l`r [wud G jmk GG drr`rB`m{r`iigmc l`r [wud G jmk GG drr`r Id g f`rdId g f`rd [ad`rd{gbji b`mgkdrj{g`m[ad`rd{gbji b`mgkdrj{g`m Fdjtrdfdm{ b`mgkdrj{g`mFdjtrdfdm{ b`mgkdrj{g`m
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
22/37
????
GG
gfti{jmd`t fti{guid rdcrdg`mgfti{jmd`t fti{guid rdcrdg`m
!! ''
!! ''
agdrjrbagbji fti{guid rdcrdg`magdrjrbagbji fti{guid rdcrdg`m
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
23/37
?2?2
GGGG {dusgd fti{guid rdcrdg`m{dusgd fti{guid rdcrdg`m
!! '' l`rsjrkl`rsjrk
!! '' ojbns`rkojbns`rk
!! '' {dusgd{dusgd
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
24/37
?;?;
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
25/37
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
26/37
?
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
27/37
?3?3
__??
_?_? _ ztjrd_ ztjrd QQ WW WW
c``kmd `l lg{c``kmd `l lg{ b`dllgbgdm{ `lb`dllgbgdm{ `l
kd{drfgmj{g`mkd{drfgmj{g`m _?_?fti{guidfti{guid __
LL
RRdc RRd . :6 RR{ RR{
6.6:55$
{
dc
{
d
RR
RR
RR
RR
_ 66:?
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
28/37
?1?1
Jkhtr{dk _Jkhtr{dk _??
__??
__?? jkht{dk _jkht{dk _?? _?_?
__??
Jkhtr{dk:/
:/:
/
/:?
66
MRR
uMRR
klRR
klRR_
{
d
{{
dd
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
29/37
?7?7
!rdcrdg`m!rdcrdg`m
b`dllgbgdm{'b`dllgbgdm{' W6oQ.jW6oQ.j OO
QQWW
OO
ooQQ WW Od{jOd{j QQ WWXXXQXQXWXW 55 &:&: .:.:QQ WW
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
30/37
2525
{`idrjmbd{`idrjmbd |jrgjmbd gmlij{g`m ljb{`r) \GL|jrgjmbd gmlij{g`m ljb{`r) \GL
_g?_g? :&:& _g?_g?
_g?_g? \GL\GL
dgcdm|jitddgcdm|jitd b`mkg{g`mji gmkdq> BGb`mkg{g`mji gmkdq> BG
|jrgjmbd ur`u`r{g`m|jrgjmbd ur`u`r{g`m ::
[`idrjmbd6 : & _g?
\GL6: / [`idrjmbd6: / !: &_g?'
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
31/37
2:2:
:-555 &-;:2 &-3
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
32/37
2?2?
o
-733j -74; -17< ?-:? -74; :
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
33/37
2222
j
4:-
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
34/37
2;2;
U&U
8
:-55-34-45-?45-55
:-55
-34
-45
-?4
5-55
:-7
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
35/37
2424
/ j
LGMDQJF - ! Y L& 96 -545 L& =6 -:55'
JORDM[ -! Y L&
96 -545 L& =6 -:55'
:
?
Y C_JKD j-
L -54 L -:5
! '
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
36/37
2
8/14/2019 Adv Stat 5
37/37
2323
j
&:3-414 ?;-4?< &-3:3 -;7;
:-:77 -?7: -1?4 ;-:?2 -552 -1?4 -1?4 -1?4 :-555 :-55
:5-