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Addressing socio-ecological problems in the coastal zone
of Southeast Asia using system dynamics
Background• Coastal ecosystems provide many services to
coastal communities• These include: provisioning (e.g. food and fuel),
regulating (e.g. assimilation of pollutants), supporting (e.g. nutrient cycling) and cultural (e.g. recreational and tourism services)
Background• The integrity of coastal ecosystems and their
services are in decline in SE Asia• This is mainly due to rapid population growth
and development, which has caused increased demand on local resources, changed catchment land-use and increasing waste production
Background• The decline in coastal ecosystems has caused a
number of problems and traps that threaten the well-being and livelihoods of coastal communities
• These are the result of interactions between ecosystems, economies and societies, making them socio-ecological problems
What are we doing?• We are applying systems thinking and system
dynamics to understand how communities currently interact with coastal ecosystems and how these interactions have led to socio-ecological problems
• We are working in El Nido, The Philippines, and Selayar, Indonesia
El Nido, Palawan, The Philippines
Selayar, South West Sulawesi, Indonesia
MethodsSteps Activities El Nido Selayar
Problem identification & articulation
Scoping visit ✔ ✔
Planning workshop ✔ ✔
System specification(dynamic hypothesis)
Creation of core modelling teams
✔ ✔
FGD training ✔ ✔
FGD round 1 ✔ ✔
FGD round 2 ✔ ✔
Simulation modelling Model specification Underway Underway
Data collation Underway Underway
Model testing To be done To be done
Policy design and evaluation FGD round 3 To be done To be done
Decision support tool delivery Tool design To be done To be done
Tool development To be done To be done
Problem Articulation
Problem Articulation
Focus ProblemsEl Nido, The Philippines Core Modelling Team
Fish catch decline Palawan State University (PSU)
Food insecurity The El Nido Foundation (ENF)
Mangrove loss Palawan Council for Sustainable Development (PCSD)
Water pollution Palawan State University (PSU)
Selayar, Indonesia Core Modelling Team
Coral reef fisheries decline Bogor Agricultural University (IPB)
Examples of the Problems
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
El Nido Fish Catch: The Municipal Agriculturist’s Office (MAO) of El Nido reported a 58% decrease in fish catch from 2010 to 2014. The greatest decrease was in 2014 when the fish catch was only 60% of that in 2013.
Water Pollution: A former mangrove area in Cabigsing, Buena Suerta, El Nido
Water Pollution: Raw waste water drainage to estuary, El Nido. In 2014 laboratory analysis of water samples taken from Bacuit Bay found that biochemical oxygen demand was at levels 3,000 percent higher than what the Clean Air Act allows. The water was also found to be contaminated with faecal coliforms, indicating contamination from human and animal waste.
El Nido beach tests positive for coliform: Philippines Inquirer (http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/651058/el-nido-beach-tests-positive-for-coliform)
Charcoal kiln within the mangrove forest at New Ibajay, El Nido: 60 to 70% of the El Nidocommunity is dependent on charcoal for fuel. 1600 m2 of mangroves are cleared per month to feed one charcoal kiln. Other causes of mangrove loss include land reclamation for residential and industrial buildings and the harvesting of mangroves for timber.
Local produce market, El Nido: A survey undertaken by the Palawan State University in 2013 found that approximately 10 percent of the sampled households in El Nido experienced hunger
Local fish market, Selayar
System Specification• FGD Round One: The purpose is to capture the
mental models of participants• FGD Round Two: The purpose is mental model
update, review and learning from the mental models of others
• SESAMME App and a script was used to capture information in these FGDs
IPB (Coral Reef Fisheries Decline)September 2015
SESAMME‘Drag and Drop’ icons (satellite view)
Ico
ns
for
curr
ent
com
po
nen
t (A
ctiv
itie
s)
How many FGDs did we do?El Nido, The Philippines Number of FGDs
FGD Round One 88
FGD Round Two 44
Participants 1000+
Selayar, Indonesia Number of FGDs
FGD Round One 17
FGD Round Two 17
Participants 300+
SESAMME map analysis used to inform dynamic hypothesis
Simplified dynamic hypothesis for reef fisheries decline in Selayar
coralfish
coral
seagrass
fishbombing
poisonfishing
traditionalfishing
big vesselfishing
-
-
-
+
+
+
bombsupplier
++
buyer forbombed fish
+
+
buyer forpoisoned fish
++
poisonsupplier
+
+
surveillance-
-
-
educationlevel
-
compressorfishing
-
alternativelivelihood
- -
lawenforcement
-
-
fish price
+
+
humanpopulation
-
-
fish caught
-
income +
+
+
+
demandof fish+
+
+
+
+
<poison fishing><fish bombing><big vessel
fishing>
++ +
-
<traditionalfishing>
+
<traditionalfishing>
-
+
-<education level>
- <education level>-
<education level>
-
<alternativelivelihood>
-
<alternativelivelihood>
-
<fish price>
+
<fish price>+
-
<income>
-
<income>
-
<income>
-
Loops perpetuating destructive fishing
coralfish
coral
fishbombing
poisonfishing
+
+
bombsupplier
+
+
buyer forbombed fish
+
+
buyer forpoisoned fish
+
+
poisonsupplier
+
+
R R
R R
R
Destructive fishing is supported by a poison and bomb fish market and supply chain
Loops perpetuating destructive fishing
coralfish
coral
fishbombing -
+
educationlevel
alternativelivelihood
fish price
fish caught
-income
+
+
+
+
+
-
-+
R1
R3
-R2
Destructive fishing reduces fish habitat and fish caught, leading to a debt and education trap
Loops perpetuating overfishing
Balancing loops form a figure of 8 reinforcing loop, meaning that overfishing can lead to a debt and education trap
coralfish
traditionalfishing
education level
-
fish price
+
fish caught-
income
+
+
+
-
++
B1
B2-
B3
alternativelivelihood
-
+
Ecosystem service impacts
Destructive fishing reduces fish and fish habitat, overfishing reduces fish and indirectly reduces fish habitat because herbivorous fish maintain coral health by grazing algae
coralfish
coral
seagrass
fishbombing
poisonfishing
traditionalfishing
-
-
-
+
+
+-
-
fish caught
-
+
++
+
R1
B1
Important pressures
Population growth is driving the increasing demand for fish for subsistence and sale to market. Lack of law enforcement and surveillance allows destructive fishing to continue. Lack of alternative livelihoods means that poor households have no alternative but to fish.
fishbombing
poisonfishing
traditionalfishing
surveillance
-
-
lawenforcement
-
-
fish price
+
+
humanpopulation
demandof fish
+
+
+
++
alternativelivelihood- -
-
Simulation Modelling• The purpose is to capture the main themes
(resources, activities, pressures) within the dynamic hypotheses for each socio-ecological problem and the interactions between them
• Simulation models are built in Stella• FGD Round Three: The purpose is scenario
analysis and policy testing using the simulation model
Simulation Modelling• Models cover:
a. Catchment runoff (sediment, nutrients)b. Crop and livestock productionc. Fish populations (herbivores, predators, squid)d. Fishing (legal and illegal, entry, exit and effort)e. Coastal habitats (reefs, mangroves, sea grass)f. Land use (crops, livestock and urban)g. Population (domestic, tourists)h. Supply, demand and price (fish, crops, livestock)i. Household net income (from fishing, cropping and livestock production)j. Waste production (septic tanks, stormwater)k. Water use (domestic, crops, livestock)l. Water quality (phytoplankton [algal blooms], suspended sediment,
nutrients)
Decision Support Tool Delivery
• Smart phones are more affordable and accessible than computers in most developing countries
• Managers and policy makers do not use system dynamics modelling software and are not trained in stock and flow modelling
• Managers and policy makers are often not experienced or trained in what they are managing
Decision Support Tool Delivery
• We will develop our decision support tool as an App for smart phones and tablets, called SYSTORY (system storytelling tool)
• It will have storytelling and scenario analysis capability
• The storytelling will support learning• The scenario analysis will support decision
making
Decision Support Tool Delivery
• The storytelling interface will be split into chapters (one chapter for each focus problem) and each chapter will guide users through a cartoon style description of the system
• The scenario analysis interface will allow users to open a set of controls for scenario specification and view the results of any scenario as graphs over time
Thank You
