Addressing Emerging Technologies – Part 2Agenda • Why Consider Emerging Technologies? • Capture Technology and Innovation in TREDIS • New Tech Coming to Your Region Soon –High

Addressing EmergingTechnologies – Part 2:

Passenger Modes

April 25, 2017

The Emerging Technology Series: Part 1 Recap

• TREDIS Overview• Main Example: Autonomous Truck Platoons• Other Tech Topics: ConnectedInfrastructure, Drones in the Supply Chain,and Hyperloop

• Freight Data Products• Recording and slides available

http://www.tredis.com/addressing-emerging-technologies-part-1-freight-modes

2© 2017 - Economic Development Research Group, Inc.

Agenda

• Why Consider Emerging Technologies?

• Capture Technology and Innovation in TREDIS

• New Tech Coming to Your Region Soon– High Efficiency and Alternative Fuel Vehicles– High Speed Intercity Travel– Connected and Autonomous Vehicles– Mobility as a Service (On-demand, TNC, etc.)

• Questions & Answers

© 2017 - Economic Development Research Group, Inc. 3

Why Consider Emerging Technologies?

4

Changes inTransportation

Technology

TransportationBenefits

Industry CostSavings Response

&Change in Access

to Markets

Economic Growth(Impact)

© 2017 - Economic Development Research Group, Inc.

Technology Leads to Economic Growth

How TREDIS Can Help Your Evaluations


Test alternative baseline scenarios• Do my project or program impacts change based on how

technology changes vehicle performance in the future?• What if I change assumptions about system performance and

capacity?• How do innovative ride services affect my transit project benefits?

Test impact of technology-supporting policy• What is the long-term implication of encouraging more connected

vehicles on our highways?• Of requiring increased fuel efficiency?

Evaluate projects• Is it worthwhile to install V2I infrastructure on this corridor?• Design for highly automated vehicles?• Transition a fleet of vehicles to an alternative fuel?• Upgrade service using new tech?

Passenger Transportation Technology


Changes dimensionsof the transportationsystem:• Trip distances• Trip frequencies• Trip speeds• Vehicle performance• System performance• Occupancy• Comfort &convenience

• Reliability

Innovations comingsoon:• HEV/EVs• Alternative Fuels• Hyperloop• Connected/Autonomous• New ITS• Mobility as a Service• On-demand Services

–Uber/Lyft and others

Default Modes in TREDIS

7

EnablesMultimodalAnalyses

A wide variety ofmodes:

• Road• Rail• Aviation• Marine• Pedestrian• Bicycles• Custom

© 2017 - Economic Development Research Group, Inc.

High Efficiency Vehicles andAlternative Fuel Vehicles

Do your project evaluations considerrealistic future scenarios?

How could evolving vehicle fleets affectagency finances?


How High Efficiency Vehicles Affect You


EPA analysis expects existing gasoline technology tobe able to meet CAFE standards for the decade

Potential Effects of HE Gas & Hybrid Vehicles• Reduced emissions• Lower operator costs• Reduced fuel tax revenue

Capturing this in TREDIS• As shown in the freight portion of the webinar, capturing

innovative scenarios in TREDIS is enabled by custom modes

Potential Effects• Emissions Effects• Lower operator costs

– Energy and routine maintenance

• Changing ownership costs– Upfront costs and major maintenance

• Possible drastic fuel tax revenue reductions

Infrastructure costs• Any public provision of charging stations?• Construction of CNG stations for fleets, but open to the public?

Are Alternative Fuel Vehicles Different?


Example of Growing EV Share

Simple Example• Today

– 1% EV• 2032

– 20% EV• EV Characteristics

– ~100 MPGe– Pay residential electricity

rates– No mobile-source

emissions

Agency Perspective• Same penetration in

base and project case• In the base case, the

agency keeps charginga gas tax

• In the project case, aRUC is put in place thatis revenue neutral fortoday’s fleet


Creating Custom Modes


Allows immense flexibility for innovative modeling in TREDIS

2032 Travel and Taxes


From Inputs to Results


Today’s webinar isn’t focused on a completeworkflow in TREDIS.

If you want to know more, view one of theIntroduction to TREDIS webinars available at

http://tredis.com/resources/webcasts.

Remember: Use the Straight Line Growth option,when you’re mainly shifting between modes

Financial Impact Results


Adding in RUC Collection Costs


This Example’s Benefit Cost Story


Add’l Dimensions to Consider in TREDIS

• In this example, the EV penetration is thesame in both baseline and alternative cases

• What if changing to a RUC reducesincentives to buy electric?

• Similarly, what about combining the RUCwith incentives to switch to electric?


Hyperloop andOther Rapid Intercity Transit

Business models like those proposedbased on hyperloop concepts could

significantly increase connectivity andaccessibility

The Importance of Accessibility

• Face-to-face meetings still matter

• Role of communication technology

• Global supply chains and trade relationships

• Connectivity Competitiveness andproductivity


Same Day Travel Access


Scenario

• How would Sacramento county benefit froma fast connection to Los Angeles?

• Time savings and market access

• Long distance travelers could make their tripin half the time

• Better integrate two economic regions andconnect to a major international airport


Market Access Inputs

• Connection to LAX with more destinationsthan SFO or Oakland


Impacts Over Time• Output and Employment converge due to productivity

trends in the affected industries in Sacramento• Growth from market access cannot occur immediately but

eventually levels off


Detailed Industry Results


Industries around Sacramento for which travel time savings,market access, and connectivity are important

Growth puts significant pressure on the real estate market aswell as benefiting brokers and realtors who have to travel

Industries of Impact (Value Added)


Year: 2035

Time Savings+

Accessibility

OnlyAccessibility

Market Access Results only

• Different mix– focused on industries for which intercity relationship

and long distance travel are important


What Else Could You Capture in TREDIS?

• Mode shift• Induced Travel• Safety• Environment• Detailed construction and operations• Benefit – Cost Comparisons• Interactions with other modes


Connected and AutonomousPassenger Vehicles

What are the economics of your cardriving itself?

Lowering The Costs of Travel

Short-Term

• Parking Costs• Cruising for Parking• Convenience/Comfort• Operating Efficiency• Safety

Long Term

• Parking Spots• Vehicle Ownership• Lighter Vehicles• More Safety!


Economic Responses

• When we make it easier to travel, peopletravel more.

• If people don’t travel more, their cars might.What if it has to travel a long way to pick you up or

drop you off?

• TREDIS framework helps evaluate how theserebound effects balance with efficiencyeffects.


More Things to Test in TREDIS

• Analyze land use scenarios that might result fromautonomous vehicles More density from less parking Less density from more convenient long-distance commutes

• Don’t have autonomous vehicles in your model yet? Use TREDIS to split out different percentages for sensitivity

analysis of projects and programs

• Investigate costs and benefits of replacing agencyassets with autonomous vehicles

• Evaluate provision of dedicated autonomousinfrastructure


Carsharing

There was a lot of hype,and now Zipcar’s everywhere (in somecities), but the buzz has quieted a bit


Carsharing Isn’t Gone

Examples:• AAA’s Gig service• Blue-Indy service• Bikesharing service (including smart bikes)

Effects:• Shifts some trips to other modes, but provides

car when needed Mode choices increase economic efficiency

• Can reduce parking and ownership costs Similar benefits as autonomous vehicles

• Current carsharing schemes eliminate 7-11 cars –UC-Berkeley study


Autonomy & Carsharing

• Major benefits will come in combination withautonomy– Proposed roll-out of Waymo/Google, Ford and others

autonomous vehicles is basically for carsharing

• Reduces cost of accessing a shared vehicle– Could bring car-sharing to less dense areas– Greatly increase its attractiveness and viability in

urban markets

• Parking and ownership costs can beexamined in your TREDIS model


Mobility as a Service

New Technology Platforms are ProvidingOn-Demand Trips More Conveniently

How could regions benefit from leveragingthese new services?


What’s the status quo

• Autonomous vehicles and carsharing haven’tchanged this picture that much yet

• Car ownership and frequent use is key topersonal mobility for most Americans

• Parking infrastructure at origins anddestinations is key to enabling many trips


Pieces of a New Transport Puzzle

• Autonomous carshare and other shared mobilitysolutions

• On-demand services from TNCs or taxis

• Existing transit modes can still provide morecapacity

• Use of high-occupancy modes

• Impact on parking demand


What could the future look like?

• Agencies are starting to utilize theseservices to improve their service reach– Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority

• 5 providers using their own platforms• http://www.psta.net/press/10-2016/directconnect/index.php

– Hillsborough Area Regional Transit• 2 providers and HART-leased vehicles through HART app• http://www.gohart.org/Pages/Hyperlink.aspx

– GoTriangle in Raleigh-Durham region• Third MaaS Provider Transloc• http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/wake-

county/article141962514.html


What could the future look like?• Others, public and private, are already tackling

the parking component:– City of Summit, NJ commuter rail station

• Avoided garage expansion through fixed rate rides• https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-jersey-town-calls-on-uber-to-

solve-commuter-parking-dilemma-1483128663

– Residential complex in San Francisco• Subsidized Uber rides to transit• Monthly stipend for transit, ride-hailing, and car-sharing• http://www.sustainablebrands.com/news_and_views/collaboratio

n/sustainable_brands/uber_partners_sf_real_estate_developer_incentivize_r

– Shopping Mall in San Diego• Offered rides during parking lot closure and construction• http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-uber-promo-ends-at-

del-mar-highlands-2015aug31-htmlstory.html


What Might You Analyze in TREDIS

Balance Value of Time

• Travel time• Reliability• Flexibility• Comfort and convenience

benefits• Out of vehicle time

Balance Monetary Costs

• Fare costs• Parking costs• Personal vehicle op costs• Vehicle ownership costs• Agency cost of provision


How You Could Do That

• All transit riders have to walk to a station• By offering first-/last-mile taxi/ride-hail

service, some of those with longer walks, aswell as some drivers switch modes


How You Could Do That (2)

• Perhaps this improvescongestion on mainroads

• Use TREDIS to capturecosts experienced byusers


What Might You Find

• Larger economic effects are also likely ifcommuters and business travelers utilize theservice

• Economic impacts will be higher whentravelers save parking costs, tolls, or othertravel costs in excess of fare costs

• If the service helps access modesconnecting to intercity travel options, itcould be even more valuable


Significant Societal Benefits


• Total benefits of $169M over 5 years• Roughly 6M rides annually

Tell TREDIS which Trips are Induced

• Some new trips are due to breaking 1 car tripinto 1 taxi + 1 transit, others are induced


Concluding the MaaS Example

• New technologies are unlocking a lot of newoptions for mobility.

• There are many potential business modelsfor integrating existing services with the newopportunities.

• These could have significant benefits forexisting and potential travelers depending onhow they are implemented.


Wrap Up

• TREDIS provides a framework to organizetransportation data and assumptions

• Focus on estimating travel changes andprobably doing sensitivity analysis

• Let TREDIS store common factors and link ittogether – including impacts on the economy

• Let us know if you have any questions aboutinnovative analysis in TREDIS


TREDIS®

Helps you address emerging technologiesand their potential impact on your local

economy.

It’s better to model what could happenrather than not account for it at all!


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www.tredis.com/webcasts


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Documents

Addressing Emerging Technologies – Part 2Agenda • Why Consider Emerging Technologies? • Capture Technology and Innovation in TREDIS • New Tech Coming to Your Region Soon –High