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Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets Chris Bohn Senior Vice President, Supply Chain 1

Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

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Page 1: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets

Chris Bohn Senior Vice President, Supply Chain

1

Page 2: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

2

Safe Harbor Statement All statements in this communication, other than those relating to historical facts, are “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future strategic plans; and statements about future financial and operating results. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations include, among others: the volatility of natural gas prices in North America; the cyclical nature of our business and the agricultural sector; the global commodity nature of our fertilizer products, the impact of global supply and demand on our selling prices, and the intense global competition from other fertilizer producers; conditions in the U.S. agricultural industry; difficulties in securing the supply and delivery of raw materials, increases in their costs or delays or interruptions in their delivery; reliance on third party providers of transportation services and equipment; the significant risks and hazards involved in producing and handling our products against which we may not be fully insured; risks associated with cyber security; weather conditions; our ability to complete our production capacity expansion projects on schedule as planned, on budget or at all; risks associated with other expansions of our business, including unanticipated adverse consequences and the significant resources that could be required; potential liabilities and expenditures related to environmental, health and safety laws and regulations; our potential inability to obtain or maintain required permits and governmental approvals or to meet financial assurance requirements from governmental authorities; future regulatory restrictions and requirements related to greenhouse gas emissions; the seasonality of the fertilizer business; the impact of changing market conditions on our forward sales programs; risks involving derivatives and the effectiveness of our risk measurement and hedging activities; our reliance on a limited number of key facilities; risks associated with joint ventures; acts of terrorism and regulations to combat terrorism; risks associated with international operations; losses on our investments in securities; deterioration of global market and economic conditions; and our ability to manage our indebtedness. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent periodic reports filed on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, which are available in the Investor Relations section of the CF Industries website. Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date of this release and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Page 3: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Topics

3

Transportation Portfolio

CF Industries Overview

Changing Transportation

Flows Relevant Rail

Issues

Page 4: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

CF Industries Overview 4

Page 5: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Global Leader In Nitrogen Fertilizer Production

5

Largest nitrogen fertilizer producer in North America and second largest in the world

• 2014 Revenue: $4.7 Billion

• Serve agricultural and industrial customers through:

- World-scale production facilities.

- Best-in-class distribution system.

- Innovative sales and support.

- Strong commitment to environmental, health and safety practices.

• 2,300 employees

2014 Nitrogen Sales: 13.3M Tons

Ammonia, 3.0

Granular Urea, 2.5 UAN, 6.1

Other, 1.8

Other includes Ammonium Nitrate, Diesel Exhaust Fluid and Urea Liquor

Page 6: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Population Growth and Food Security

• World population has reached 7 billion on its way to 9 billion by 2050.

• Migration from rural to urban communities.

• Shift to higher protein diets.

• Increased demands on food production and distribution.

• Increased threat to food security globally.

6

World Population Growth (Billions)

0

2

4

6

8

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

150

300

450

600

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Meat Production (Millions of Tons)

Source: FAO

Source: World Bank

Page 7: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

• Fertilizer supports farmer productivity by increasing yields.

• Improvements in yield have been primary contributor to increased production last 40 years.

• By 2050, farmers will need to produce 70% more food to meet population’s nutritional needs.

7

60

100

140

180

220

260

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

YIELD

ACRES HARVESTED

World Grain & Oilseed Supply (Metrics Indexed to 1970 = 100)

Source: USDA

PRODUCTION

CF Industries Feeds the Crops that Feed the World

Page 8: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

• Nitrogen needs to be applied annually, unlike other nutrients

• Nitrogen growth projected to continue to be 2% annually

• Industrial growth is expected to be 3% annually, largely due to emissions control

8

Consistent Long-Term Nitrogen Growth

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1982 1992 2002 2012

Nitrogen Phosphate Potash

2% CAGR*

1% CAGR*

Global Nitrogen Consumption (Millions of Nutrient Tonnes)

Source: IFA *30-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate

1% CAGR*

Page 9: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

CF Industries’ Nitrogen Product Mix

Ammonia Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) Urea

Properties

Building block for upgrade N-fertilizers.

Dry. Used on fruits, vegetables and pastures

Liquid. Fast/slow release properties Best for no-till farming

Dry. Easy to store and handle.

Application Process

Knife injected 6“ - 8" into the soil. Application is ideal when soil temperatures are below 50ºF.

Surface apply, spread .

Dribbling, spraying, knife-in, and apply through irrigation system.

Surface broadcast, banding.

Seasonality Strong spring demand.

Good fall demand with wheat.

All season. Mostly spring applied.

Good split between spring and fall.

9

Source: IPNI, TFI

Page 10: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

CF: Unmatched North American Asset Base

10

• 7 nitrogen production complexes

• Access to ammonia pipelines from US Gulf and Oklahoma

• 82 distribution locations

• Over 1.3 million tons of ammonia

• 1.2 million tons of UAN storage capacity

• Access to 32 barges and over 6,000 railcars provide inland transportation flexibility

1,400

Source: AAPFCO, CF Industries, Statscan

Legend (Thousand Nutrient Tons)

Production

Distribution

Pipeline

Nitrogen Demand and Asset Base

10

Page 11: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Transformational Growth: Projected 2010 - 2016 +230% Production Capacity Growth

11

2.6

3.6 6.2

0.5 6.7 0.4

8.8 1.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 Pre-TerraAcquisition (1)

TerraAcquisition

CF and Terra (2) ExecutedGrowth (3)

Current Total GrowHowAcquistion(4)

ExpansionProjects (5)

Projected 2016

(1) Excludes 34% of Canadian Fertilizers Limited (CFL) that was owned by Viterra. CFL operations were treated as a consolidated variable interest entity in CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

financial statements.

(2) Terra Industries acquisition closed in April 2010.

(3) Acquisition of all outstanding interests in CFL closed April 30, 2013 and ammonia debottleneck projects that were completed from January 2011 through December 2013.

(4) On 7/1/2015, CF Industries announced the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the GrowHow UK joint venture.

(5) Expansion projects at Donaldsonville, LA and Port Neal, IA

• 2010 – acquired Terra Industries

• 2011 – 2013 – completed multiple ammonia debottleneck projects

• 2013 – acquired remaining 33% of Medicine Hat, Alberta nitrogen complex

• 2015 – announced acquisition of remaining 50% interest of GrowHow

• 2016 - production capacity expansions projected to be on-line

CF Nitrogen Volumes Million Nutrient Tons

Page 12: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Best of Breed Shareholder Returns

12 (1) Share price appreciation, including reinvestment of all dividends, since CF Industries’ IPO on August 10, 2005. Source: Bloomberg. As of June 22, 2015.

The Top Ten S&P 500 Index Companies By Total Shareholder Return Since August 10, 2005

Rank Company Total Shareholder Return(1)

1 Regeneron 5,744%

2 Priceline 4,915

3 Netflix 3,134

4 Green Mountain/Keurig 3,068

5 Alexion Pharma 2,639

6 Monster Energy 2,363

7 Apple 2,092

8 CF Industries 2,067

9 Skyworks Solutions 1,554

10 Perrigo 1,346

Page 13: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

CF Industries Transportation Assets 13

Page 14: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

CF Industries’ Diverse Transportation Portfolio

• Significant logistical flexibility differentiates CF from peers

• Transport nitrogen products by all modes:

Rail

Pipeline

Barge

Vessel

Truck

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Page 15: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Rail is a Critical Component of CF’s Transportation Portfolio

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• Transport ~ 5 million tons of nitrogen product annually via rail.

• Operate on all Class I railroads

(BN, UP, CP, CN, CSX, and NS).

• CF leases more than 6,000 rail

cars; - 5,000 tank cars - 1,000 hoppers

• Annual freight spend above

$400 million.

15

Page 16: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

CF’s Commitment to Safety

16

Pinnacle Award 12 Years in a Row

Stewardship Award 16 Years in a Row

Chemical Safety Excellence Award

8-time recipient

Safe Handling Award 3-time recipient

Earned every safe handling award CF was eligible for in 2014

GRAND SLAM AWARD

Page 17: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Contracting Ammonia Application Window

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Days to Ship 66% of Total Fall Shipments

Days

The Ammonia Application Period is Compressing

Fall: October – November at Central Illinois Ammonia Terminals

Source: CF

With technological advances and larger, faster equipment, peak day ammonia volume is increasing and peak shipping period is trending down.

24 hour operation in-season is more important than ever.

Improvements in ammonia terminal loading capacity have been made and more are planned.

17

17

Page 18: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Nitrogen Transportation Transformation 18

Page 19: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

U.S. nitrogen production fell by over 40% by 2006

0123456789

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Natu

ral G

as P

rice

$/M

MBt

u

Num

ber o

f Pla

nt C

losu

res

Number of Plants Closed Natural Gas Price/MMBtu

Sources: Blue, Johnson & Associates, Natural Gas Week, TFI

1985-1997 Average Natural

Gas Cost of $1.90/MMBtu

Cumulative U.S. Ammonia Plant Closures vs. Natural Gas Prices

How North America Became a Nitrogen Importer

19

19

Page 20: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

20

Competitive North American Natural Gas

Source: EIA, Bloomberg, FERTECON

Global Gas Prices ($/MMBtu)

20

Page 21: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

High-return expansion projects will increase capacity by +25% (1)

21

Granulation Area

Urea Melt

Urea Granulation Urea Melt

• $4 billion production capacity expansion: Donaldsonville, LA and Port Neal, IA

• +25% increase in production capacity (1)

• Combined annual incremental production:

• 2.1 million tons of gross ammonia

• 2.0 – 2.7 million tons of granular urea

• Up to 1.8 million tons of UAN (2)

21

(1) Projected 25% capacity increase is before accounting for the announced acquisition of the remaining 50% of GrowHow.

(2) At 1.8M tons of UAN, 2.0M tons of granular urea can be produced. Granular urea production could be increased by decreasing UAN production.

Donaldsonville Facility has 5 docks

Page 22: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

22

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Ammonia Urea UAN AN

Even with Expansions, North America Expected to Remain a Net Importer

North American Offshore Nitrogen Imports (Million Nutrient Tons)

Source: USDOC, CF Industries

Fertilizer Year

NA Nitrogen Demand

CF

OCI

Koch, Agrium, PCS, Yara, Simplot, others(3)

CF

Dyno Nobel Other (2)

Forecast

Source: Fertecon, IFDC, CF Industries, Fertilizer Year

North American Production Potential(1) (Million Nutrient Tons)

1. Production potential defined as 95% of capacity. 2. Other expansions include Koch, J.R. Simplot, Agrium, Yara/BASF & LSB. 3. Incorporates expansions expected completed by 2015 including Rentech, U.S. Nitrogen, OCI & PCS.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

22

Page 23: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Expanded Capacity in the Heart of the Corn Belt

23

Additional urea capacity in a region with significant demand

0 1,400

Legend (Thousand Nutrient Tons)

700,000 tons

900,000 tons

180,000 tons 175,000 tons

700,000 tons

Port Neal, IA Nitrogen Complex

900,000

0

Page 24: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Changing Transportation Flows: Midwest Urea Demand is Currently Sourced Heavily by

Imports

24

Today, significant amounts of UREA imported, move inland from Gulf

CF Port Neal, IA Nitrogen Complex

Page 25: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

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New Domestic Nitrogen Production is Expected to Displace a Portion of Urea Imports

Changing Transportation Flows: Post-Nitrogen Expansions Midwest Urea Demand is Expected

to be Sourced Increasingly by Domestic Production

Projected Fewer Urea Imports

Page 26: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Changing Transportation Flows: Eastern Corn Belt UAN is Currently Sourced

Primarily by Imports

26

Today, approximately 3 million tons of UAN are imported

UAN Imports

Page 27: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Changing Transportation Flows: Post-Nitrogen Expansions Eastern Corn Belt UAN Demand

is Expected to be Sourced from Domestic Production

27

Significant amount of Eastern Corn Belt UAN to be sourced from Donaldsonville

Projected Fewer UAN Imports

Page 28: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Relevant Rail Issues 28

Page 29: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Relevant Rail Issues

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• Shippers and railroads will

need to adapt to changing transportation markets

• Adjustments to the current shipper / railroad operating model are needed

• Transportation Research Board Special Report provides an initial framework

Page 30: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Transportation Research Board Special Report (1)

30

• Refine bench marking methods

• Institute arbitration procedures

• Allow reciprocal switching

• End revenue adequacy determinations

• Antitrust agencies to review mergers

• Provides STB with direction & additional resources

30

(1) Transportation Research Special Report (TRB) Special Report 318: Modernizing Freight Rail Regulation

Page 31: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

The Value of Competitive Switching

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Four CF production facilities would benefit from competitive switching

Port Neal: 3 lines within 8 miles

Verdigris: 3 lines within 21 miles

Donaldsonville: 6 lines within 75 miles

Yazoo City: 2 lines within 50 miles

Page 32: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Summary

• CF Industries helps farmers feed the world

• CF Industries has a strong commitment to safety

• Expansive transportation portfolio compliments expanding production and distribution network

• Shippers and railroads will need to adapt to changing transportation markets

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Page 33: Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets · 2017-04-25 · 8 9 10 2010 Pre-Terra Acquisition (1) Terra Acquisition CF and Terra (2) Executed Growth (3) Current Total GrowHow Acquistion(4)

Thank you

Chris Bohn Senior Vice President, Supply Chain

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