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Adapting to Changing Transportation Markets
Chris Bohn Senior Vice President, Supply Chain
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Safe Harbor Statement All statements in this communication, other than those relating to historical facts, are “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future strategic plans; and statements about future financial and operating results. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations include, among others: the volatility of natural gas prices in North America; the cyclical nature of our business and the agricultural sector; the global commodity nature of our fertilizer products, the impact of global supply and demand on our selling prices, and the intense global competition from other fertilizer producers; conditions in the U.S. agricultural industry; difficulties in securing the supply and delivery of raw materials, increases in their costs or delays or interruptions in their delivery; reliance on third party providers of transportation services and equipment; the significant risks and hazards involved in producing and handling our products against which we may not be fully insured; risks associated with cyber security; weather conditions; our ability to complete our production capacity expansion projects on schedule as planned, on budget or at all; risks associated with other expansions of our business, including unanticipated adverse consequences and the significant resources that could be required; potential liabilities and expenditures related to environmental, health and safety laws and regulations; our potential inability to obtain or maintain required permits and governmental approvals or to meet financial assurance requirements from governmental authorities; future regulatory restrictions and requirements related to greenhouse gas emissions; the seasonality of the fertilizer business; the impact of changing market conditions on our forward sales programs; risks involving derivatives and the effectiveness of our risk measurement and hedging activities; our reliance on a limited number of key facilities; risks associated with joint ventures; acts of terrorism and regulations to combat terrorism; risks associated with international operations; losses on our investments in securities; deterioration of global market and economic conditions; and our ability to manage our indebtedness. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent periodic reports filed on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, which are available in the Investor Relations section of the CF Industries website. Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date of this release and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Topics
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Transportation Portfolio
CF Industries Overview
Changing Transportation
Flows Relevant Rail
Issues
CF Industries Overview 4
Global Leader In Nitrogen Fertilizer Production
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Largest nitrogen fertilizer producer in North America and second largest in the world
• 2014 Revenue: $4.7 Billion
• Serve agricultural and industrial customers through:
- World-scale production facilities.
- Best-in-class distribution system.
- Innovative sales and support.
- Strong commitment to environmental, health and safety practices.
• 2,300 employees
2014 Nitrogen Sales: 13.3M Tons
Ammonia, 3.0
Granular Urea, 2.5 UAN, 6.1
Other, 1.8
Other includes Ammonium Nitrate, Diesel Exhaust Fluid and Urea Liquor
Population Growth and Food Security
• World population has reached 7 billion on its way to 9 billion by 2050.
• Migration from rural to urban communities.
• Shift to higher protein diets.
• Increased demands on food production and distribution.
• Increased threat to food security globally.
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World Population Growth (Billions)
0
2
4
6
8
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
150
300
450
600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Meat Production (Millions of Tons)
Source: FAO
Source: World Bank
• Fertilizer supports farmer productivity by increasing yields.
• Improvements in yield have been primary contributor to increased production last 40 years.
• By 2050, farmers will need to produce 70% more food to meet population’s nutritional needs.
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60
100
140
180
220
260
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
YIELD
ACRES HARVESTED
World Grain & Oilseed Supply (Metrics Indexed to 1970 = 100)
Source: USDA
PRODUCTION
CF Industries Feeds the Crops that Feed the World
• Nitrogen needs to be applied annually, unlike other nutrients
• Nitrogen growth projected to continue to be 2% annually
• Industrial growth is expected to be 3% annually, largely due to emissions control
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Consistent Long-Term Nitrogen Growth
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1982 1992 2002 2012
Nitrogen Phosphate Potash
2% CAGR*
1% CAGR*
Global Nitrogen Consumption (Millions of Nutrient Tonnes)
Source: IFA *30-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate
1% CAGR*
CF Industries’ Nitrogen Product Mix
Ammonia Ammonium Nitrate (AN)
Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) Urea
Properties
Building block for upgrade N-fertilizers.
Dry. Used on fruits, vegetables and pastures
Liquid. Fast/slow release properties Best for no-till farming
Dry. Easy to store and handle.
Application Process
Knife injected 6“ - 8" into the soil. Application is ideal when soil temperatures are below 50ºF.
Surface apply, spread .
Dribbling, spraying, knife-in, and apply through irrigation system.
Surface broadcast, banding.
Seasonality Strong spring demand.
Good fall demand with wheat.
All season. Mostly spring applied.
Good split between spring and fall.
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Source: IPNI, TFI
CF: Unmatched North American Asset Base
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• 7 nitrogen production complexes
• Access to ammonia pipelines from US Gulf and Oklahoma
• 82 distribution locations
• Over 1.3 million tons of ammonia
• 1.2 million tons of UAN storage capacity
• Access to 32 barges and over 6,000 railcars provide inland transportation flexibility
1,400
Source: AAPFCO, CF Industries, Statscan
Legend (Thousand Nutrient Tons)
Production
Distribution
Pipeline
Nitrogen Demand and Asset Base
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Transformational Growth: Projected 2010 - 2016 +230% Production Capacity Growth
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2.6
3.6 6.2
0.5 6.7 0.4
8.8 1.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 Pre-TerraAcquisition (1)
TerraAcquisition
CF and Terra (2) ExecutedGrowth (3)
Current Total GrowHowAcquistion(4)
ExpansionProjects (5)
Projected 2016
(1) Excludes 34% of Canadian Fertilizers Limited (CFL) that was owned by Viterra. CFL operations were treated as a consolidated variable interest entity in CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
financial statements.
(2) Terra Industries acquisition closed in April 2010.
(3) Acquisition of all outstanding interests in CFL closed April 30, 2013 and ammonia debottleneck projects that were completed from January 2011 through December 2013.
(4) On 7/1/2015, CF Industries announced the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the GrowHow UK joint venture.
(5) Expansion projects at Donaldsonville, LA and Port Neal, IA
• 2010 – acquired Terra Industries
• 2011 – 2013 – completed multiple ammonia debottleneck projects
• 2013 – acquired remaining 33% of Medicine Hat, Alberta nitrogen complex
• 2015 – announced acquisition of remaining 50% interest of GrowHow
• 2016 - production capacity expansions projected to be on-line
CF Nitrogen Volumes Million Nutrient Tons
Best of Breed Shareholder Returns
12 (1) Share price appreciation, including reinvestment of all dividends, since CF Industries’ IPO on August 10, 2005. Source: Bloomberg. As of June 22, 2015.
The Top Ten S&P 500 Index Companies By Total Shareholder Return Since August 10, 2005
Rank Company Total Shareholder Return(1)
1 Regeneron 5,744%
2 Priceline 4,915
3 Netflix 3,134
4 Green Mountain/Keurig 3,068
5 Alexion Pharma 2,639
6 Monster Energy 2,363
7 Apple 2,092
8 CF Industries 2,067
9 Skyworks Solutions 1,554
10 Perrigo 1,346
CF Industries Transportation Assets 13
CF Industries’ Diverse Transportation Portfolio
• Significant logistical flexibility differentiates CF from peers
• Transport nitrogen products by all modes:
Rail
Pipeline
Barge
Vessel
Truck
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Rail is a Critical Component of CF’s Transportation Portfolio
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• Transport ~ 5 million tons of nitrogen product annually via rail.
• Operate on all Class I railroads
(BN, UP, CP, CN, CSX, and NS).
• CF leases more than 6,000 rail
cars; - 5,000 tank cars - 1,000 hoppers
• Annual freight spend above
$400 million.
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CF’s Commitment to Safety
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Pinnacle Award 12 Years in a Row
Stewardship Award 16 Years in a Row
Chemical Safety Excellence Award
8-time recipient
Safe Handling Award 3-time recipient
Earned every safe handling award CF was eligible for in 2014
GRAND SLAM AWARD
Contracting Ammonia Application Window
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Days to Ship 66% of Total Fall Shipments
Days
The Ammonia Application Period is Compressing
Fall: October – November at Central Illinois Ammonia Terminals
Source: CF
With technological advances and larger, faster equipment, peak day ammonia volume is increasing and peak shipping period is trending down.
24 hour operation in-season is more important than ever.
Improvements in ammonia terminal loading capacity have been made and more are planned.
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17
Nitrogen Transportation Transformation 18
U.S. nitrogen production fell by over 40% by 2006
0123456789
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Natu
ral G
as P
rice
$/M
MBt
u
Num
ber o
f Pla
nt C
losu
res
Number of Plants Closed Natural Gas Price/MMBtu
Sources: Blue, Johnson & Associates, Natural Gas Week, TFI
1985-1997 Average Natural
Gas Cost of $1.90/MMBtu
Cumulative U.S. Ammonia Plant Closures vs. Natural Gas Prices
How North America Became a Nitrogen Importer
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19
20
Competitive North American Natural Gas
Source: EIA, Bloomberg, FERTECON
Global Gas Prices ($/MMBtu)
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High-return expansion projects will increase capacity by +25% (1)
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Granulation Area
Urea Melt
Urea Granulation Urea Melt
• $4 billion production capacity expansion: Donaldsonville, LA and Port Neal, IA
• +25% increase in production capacity (1)
• Combined annual incremental production:
• 2.1 million tons of gross ammonia
• 2.0 – 2.7 million tons of granular urea
• Up to 1.8 million tons of UAN (2)
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(1) Projected 25% capacity increase is before accounting for the announced acquisition of the remaining 50% of GrowHow.
(2) At 1.8M tons of UAN, 2.0M tons of granular urea can be produced. Granular urea production could be increased by decreasing UAN production.
Donaldsonville Facility has 5 docks
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0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Ammonia Urea UAN AN
Even with Expansions, North America Expected to Remain a Net Importer
North American Offshore Nitrogen Imports (Million Nutrient Tons)
Source: USDOC, CF Industries
Fertilizer Year
NA Nitrogen Demand
CF
OCI
Koch, Agrium, PCS, Yara, Simplot, others(3)
CF
Dyno Nobel Other (2)
Forecast
Source: Fertecon, IFDC, CF Industries, Fertilizer Year
North American Production Potential(1) (Million Nutrient Tons)
1. Production potential defined as 95% of capacity. 2. Other expansions include Koch, J.R. Simplot, Agrium, Yara/BASF & LSB. 3. Incorporates expansions expected completed by 2015 including Rentech, U.S. Nitrogen, OCI & PCS.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
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Expanded Capacity in the Heart of the Corn Belt
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Additional urea capacity in a region with significant demand
0 1,400
Legend (Thousand Nutrient Tons)
700,000 tons
900,000 tons
180,000 tons 175,000 tons
700,000 tons
Port Neal, IA Nitrogen Complex
900,000
0
Changing Transportation Flows: Midwest Urea Demand is Currently Sourced Heavily by
Imports
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Today, significant amounts of UREA imported, move inland from Gulf
CF Port Neal, IA Nitrogen Complex
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New Domestic Nitrogen Production is Expected to Displace a Portion of Urea Imports
Changing Transportation Flows: Post-Nitrogen Expansions Midwest Urea Demand is Expected
to be Sourced Increasingly by Domestic Production
Projected Fewer Urea Imports
Changing Transportation Flows: Eastern Corn Belt UAN is Currently Sourced
Primarily by Imports
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Today, approximately 3 million tons of UAN are imported
UAN Imports
Changing Transportation Flows: Post-Nitrogen Expansions Eastern Corn Belt UAN Demand
is Expected to be Sourced from Domestic Production
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Significant amount of Eastern Corn Belt UAN to be sourced from Donaldsonville
Projected Fewer UAN Imports
Relevant Rail Issues 28
Relevant Rail Issues
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• Shippers and railroads will
need to adapt to changing transportation markets
• Adjustments to the current shipper / railroad operating model are needed
• Transportation Research Board Special Report provides an initial framework
Transportation Research Board Special Report (1)
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• Refine bench marking methods
• Institute arbitration procedures
• Allow reciprocal switching
• End revenue adequacy determinations
• Antitrust agencies to review mergers
• Provides STB with direction & additional resources
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(1) Transportation Research Special Report (TRB) Special Report 318: Modernizing Freight Rail Regulation
The Value of Competitive Switching
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Four CF production facilities would benefit from competitive switching
Port Neal: 3 lines within 8 miles
Verdigris: 3 lines within 21 miles
Donaldsonville: 6 lines within 75 miles
Yazoo City: 2 lines within 50 miles
Summary
• CF Industries helps farmers feed the world
• CF Industries has a strong commitment to safety
• Expansive transportation portfolio compliments expanding production and distribution network
• Shippers and railroads will need to adapt to changing transportation markets
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Thank you
Chris Bohn Senior Vice President, Supply Chain
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