Adaptation to Global Warming

Contribution of Working Group II to theFourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Working Group I

Climate change is occurring Climate change is anthropogenic in nature Climate change is inevitable given historic

activities – the atmosphere is already “heavy” with CO2

The world is catching up to SES

Adaptation

What will become the consequences of climate change?

– Environmental– Human– Economic

What can be done about them?– What are the likely costs?– What are the likely benefits?– Team II

From What Reference?

Comparisons are not made from today’s reference

Comparisons need to be made based on the possible futures

Frank Knight: Alternative futures This is even more important when discussing

mitigation What about a Type I error?????

The Issues

Freshwater resources and their management

Ecosystems Food, fibre and forest products Coastal systems and low-lying areas Health Industry, settlement and society

Water

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Where does the population live? Hundreds of millions of people exposed to

increased water stress

Ecosystems

Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction Increased coral bleaching, Most corals bleached,

Widespread coral mortality: depending on magnitude Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon

source as: ~15% to ~40% of ecosystems affected Species interactions?

– Pollination and food timing

Food

Complex, localised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers

Tendencies for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes

Tendencies for some cereal productivity to increase at mid- to high latitudes

Simple isn’t it?

Coasts

Increased damage from floods and storms About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost Millions more people could experience

coastal flooding each year

Health

Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases

Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts

Substantial burden on health services Changed distribution of some disease

vectors

Industry, Settlement and Society

Costs and benefits of climate change for industry, settlement and society will vary widely by location and scale.

In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be more negative the larger the change in climate.

The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring.

Who Will Be Hit Hardest?

Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk areas. They tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies.

The Results are Straightforward - NOT

Reduced energy demand for heating Increased demand for cooling Declining air quality in cities Reduced disruption to transport due to

snow, ice

What to Do?

Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.

A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change.

There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.

Egg Or Chicken?

Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.

Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.

Positive or negative feedbacks?

Africa: A Sample Case

By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change.

If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.

A life changing idea!

Team I

The Social Evolution from the Energy Regime Change

Where would we be without cars?– And how would we get there? (ha ha)

Where would we be without electricity? Where would we be without industrial food? How Many People Can the Earth Support?

Team I

What were the technological events that the humongous increase in energy-caused work allowed?

What were the consequences of the change? Barbara Ward: Are we better off?

Team II

Adaptation How will society change due to Climate

Change? What are the costs of not doing? What are the costs of doing?

Team II

Adaptation is NOT about a new energy regime

Team III

Is a new energy regime needed? What might that regime look like?

– Alternatives What are the costs and benefits of said

regime? How will a new regime alter society? Social and personal behavioural changes EXAM QUESTIONS

Posters

Open Edana’s file