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It depends... How much warming and what feedbacks? Warming projections: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100 Feedbacks

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Page 1: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks
Page 2: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

On balance, what are the projections for ocean change? It depends . . . How much warming and what

feedbacks? Warming projections:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100 Feedbacks are studied with

“General Circulation Models”

Page 3: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Data acquisition

Page 4: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Changes in temperature

Page 5: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Changes in sea level

Page 6: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Historical change in salinity

Page 7: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Current model projections Thermal expansion contributes major sea

level increase, but not as much as adding freshwater

Glacial melt could contribute 130 – 160 mm increase

Antarctic ice cap melting offset by increased precipitation

Redistribution of Antarctic sea ice (melting) increases equatorial & northern sea level through gravity effect

Page 8: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Mammals 'floated to Madagascar' By Mark Kinver Science and environment reporter, BBC News

The ancestors of the current mammals found on the island of Madagascar could have been transported on floating vegetation from Africa, a study says.

Page 9: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Climate is influenced by global winds and ocean currents

Page 10: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Global WindsGlobal Winds from Satellite Data

Page 11: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Coriolis Effect Based on the rotation of a sphere (the

Earth) Illustration Influences the rotation of eddies at

intermediate scales Influences the rotation of gyres at the

scale of ocean basins

Page 12: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Northeastern Pacific Wind Pattern

Page 13: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Southeast Pacific Wind Pattern

Page 14: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Winds link land & oceans

Page 15: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

surface water currents

Page 16: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

link between surface and deep circulation

Page 17: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Coriolis effect influences deep circulation

Page 18: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Equatorial upwelling

Page 19: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Current direction varies with depth

Page 20: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Current patterns differ among ocean basins

Page 21: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Indian Ocean

Page 22: It depends...  How much warming and what feedbacks?  Warming projections:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  2.7 to 3.3 K to 2100  Feedbacks

Biological productivity is influenced by ocean currents