Adaptation of Landuse to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA)

Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi

CeTSACeTSAFFAdaptation of Landuse to Climate Adaptation of Landuse to Climate

Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA)(ALUCCSA)

Objectives: ALUCCSA aims to contribute estimating effects of different future climate scenarios for the next 50 years at regional and local scale for Sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso) and their impact on land use systems.

Co-ordinated by the Centre for Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture and Forestry (CeTSAF)Georg-August Universität Göttingen

Funding: BMZ/GTZ-BEAFDuration: 2008-2011


CeTSACeTSAFF

Project Partners

Georg-August University of Goettingen (GAUG), Germany, (Coordination, Dr. Panferov, Prof. Kleinn, Prof. Mitlöhner, Prof. Schlecht)

World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), Mali (Dr. Kalinganire, Dr. v. Noordwijk)

Environmental and Agricultural Research Institute (INERA), Burkina Faso, (Dr. Mahamadi, Dr. Bayala)

Meteorological Service of Burkina Faso (Mr. Garané)

Centre for Interdisciplinary Research on Africa (CIRA), Germany, (Dr. Hahn-Hadjali)

Subcontractor: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany, (Dr. Kunstmann, Dr. Knoche)


CeTSACeTSAFF

Agroforestry

Climate change

Project scope

Animal husbandry


CeTSACeTSAFF

Project thematic structure

Climate Scenarios DownscalingClimate Scenarios Downscaling

LargeLarge--ScaleScale Land Land useuse(Vegetation (Vegetation structurestructure))

SmallSmall--ScaleScale Vegetation Vegetation structurestructure

SVAT, SVAT, WaNuLCASWaNuLCAS

PlantsPlantsphysiologicalphysiologicalparametersparameters

KLIMAKLIMA--RESI (Energie RESI (Energie budgetbudget of of ruminantsruminants))

AnimalAnimal husbandryhusbandry fodderfodderplantsplants and and nutrientnutrientbudgetbudget

ScenariosScenariosScenariosScenarios


CeTSACeTSAFF

Climate development modelling

SRES climate scenarios A1B and B1

Regional Climate Models:MM5, CLM (≈18 km × 18 km)


CeTSACeTSAFF

Study areas and spatial approach


CeTSACeTSAFF

Large scale structures of vegetation

Current work:− Analysis of vegetation data as input for modeling subprojects.− Land use classification, following FAO standards based on inventory results, combined with remote sensing data for modeling with climate modeling results.

Achievements since last year: − Large area forest and land use assessment with many similarities to FAO National Forest monitoring completed in early 2010. − Acquisition of high resolution satellite imagery as reference for up scaling approach.

Objectives: Assessment and analysis of vegetation structure and land use on country scale.


CeTSACeTSAFF

Small scale structures of vegetation

Objectives: Assessment and analysis of current pasture resources for livestock and prediction of their future development

Current work and future outlook: - Assessment of herbaceous pasture resources- Assessment of ligneous biomass (fodder resource) in 4 core areas- Prediction of future development of important fodder species (Modeling with climate change predictions)

Achievements since last year:- Vegetation types in pastured sites of 4 core study areas (climatic gradient subsahel to southern sudanian zone) are identified and species composition is assessed - Herbaceous biomass of main vegetation types in 4 core areas is assessed at the end of the rainy season


CeTSACeTSAFF

Animal husbandry

Objectives: Assessment of grazing behaviour and livestock management practices.

Current work and future outlook: − Continued monitoring of grazing and management practices until end of coming rainy season.− Assessment of main fodder species during grazing.

Achievements since last year:− The baseline survey at the six pre-selected research sites was carried out by the PhD Student of livestock group.− Four out of the six sites were maintained for regular monitoring of livestock grazing behaviour and for in-depth analysis of farmers’ livestock management practices.− Fodder species assessment.


CeTSACeTSAFF

Objectives:To evaluate the adaptation of the species to extreme drought

events and potential of stable isotopes and tree rings for paleoclimatic reconstructions.

Contribution to the Project :Will recommend drought tolerant multipurpose species for resilient agroforesty systems and provide past climate information to understand climate change.

Results of the second year and/or ongoing activities:Ring width, stable isotope and plant water potential measurements and analysis is going on.

Past climatic variation assessment for model verification and plant growth

Stem disc of: Sclerocarya birea


CeTSACeTSAFF

δ18O values of Sclerocarya birea showed similar pattern and significant correlation (r = -0.56) with rainfall amount

Preliminary results demonstrate the potential of δ18O in tree rings as climate proxy.

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Past climatic variation assessment for model verification


CeTSACeTSAFF

Climate data collection

• Gaoua• Soukouraba• Nobere• Safane• Tougori

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Nobere Tougouri Safane Soukouraba Gaoua


CeTSACeTSAFF

Quantifying the effect of shade trees on underlying crops3D Modelling of radiation transfer

3D Modelling of radiation transfer


CeTSACeTSAFF

3D-Modelled effect of 2 shade trees on underlying crops

W m-2

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130

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520

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X - A x i s ( m )

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5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0

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June, clear sunny day June, cloudy day

Black Isoline: min 10% reduction of annual sum of solar radiation due to shade tree

3D Modelling of radiation transfer


CeTSACeTSAFF

Energy balance of ruminants

Direct radiation

Diffuse radiation Thermal radiation

Wind

Sensible heat

Latent heat

Panting and salivation.Wallowing in water of mud.Mechanical workMiscellaneous heat flows

Metabolic heatMetabolic heatStored heat ?Stored heat ?

Other factors


CeTSACeTSAFF

Energy balance of ruminants


CeTSACeTSAFF

e.g. maize, cassava

or a weed (Imperata)

A Crop

or fruit trees

or woody fallows

e.g. hedge-row trees

A Tree

Nitrogen Water

Light

WaNuLCAS (Water Nutrient and Light Capture in Agroforestry Systems)

Estimation of productivity for different AF systemsunder changing climatic conditions.


CeTSACeTSAFF

SVAT modeling

Objectives: Find parameterizations for modeling interactions within ecosystems under conditions of changing climate by means of SVAT models like WaNuLCAS.

Achievements since last year:− Permanent plots established for data

collection for the adaptation of WaNuLCAS to local vegetation types.

− Soil samples were taken for analysis.− Assessment on below ground biomass.− Water potential of some key species along climatic gradient going from the south to the north of Burkina Faso were taken.− Tree transpiration and light transmission.


CeTSACeTSAFF

Thank you for your attention!

Documents

Adaptation of Landuse to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA)