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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation. Ruerd Ruben Associate Professor WUR. Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa. Central Issues LFAs: Heterogeneity and Vulnerability GEC -ICCD : Risk and Adaptation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Variability, Vulnerability and Adaptation
Ruerd RubenAssociate Professor WUR
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Central Issues
LFAs: Heterogeneity and Vulnerability
GEC-ICCD: Risk and Adaptation
Linking production, expenditures & labour use
Bio-economic farm household modelling
Food chains and networks approach
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Extensive Growth
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
kilo
gram
mes
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
1989
-91=
100
Increasing Cropping AreaDecreasing Fertilizer Use
Source: Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
SSA Agricultural Development
Small increase food production
Decreasing food supply
Rising input costs
Lower food prices0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
1989-91=100
Food productionper capita
Source: Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)
Topics and Approaches
Production options --> Crop simulation models
Income composition --> Portfolio analysis
Risk coping strategies --> Livelihood analysis
Rural incentives --> Bio-economic models
Bio-efficiency --> Chain analysis
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Poverty in LFAs
- Chronic Poverty +
Resource Degradation
- High transaction costs +
Low factor productivity
Source: Hazell & Ruben (2003)
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
=Actual Production =Potential Production
Yield/ha
Agroecological potential
LFA HPA
Economic potential of LFAs
Despite lower level, higher potential !
Source: Ruben & Pender (2004))
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 100 200 300 400
julian days
cu
mm
ua
ltiv
e r
ain
fall
(mm
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
6/9/02 7/9/02 8/8/02 9/7/02
rain
fall inte
nsity (m
m/h
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
cum
mula
tive rain
fall (m
m)
rainfall (mm/h) cumulative rainfall (mm)
Weather and Climate
Irregular precipitation
Concentrated showers
Source: Hengsdijk (2003)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
julian day
da
ily r
ain
fall
(mm
)
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 225
sowing date (kg/ha)
yiel
d (k
g/ha
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
non-infiltration fraction
yiel
d (k
g/ha
)
148
155
162
169
176
183
190
197
204
211
218
225
Critical Importance of sowing date
Source: Hengsdijk (2003)
Crop type Early sowing (quintal/ha)
Late sowing(quintal/ha)
Wheat + Barley
12 6
Wheat 10 4
Barley 14 7
Teff 12 3
Finger Millet 13 4
Sorghum 18 6
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
yield
N-uptake
N application
plateau
N uptake efficiency
2
3
labour
Sustainable Intensification
Complementarities
Labour & External Inputs
Improving input efficiency
Better yields
+ labour productivity
1
4
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Bio-economic Farm Household modeling
Prices Resources Technical coefficients
Consumption Expenditures
Production structure (land use pattern and technology choice)
Response multipliers adjustments (in consumption and nutrient & organic matter
balances) due to the application of policy instruments)
Savings and Investments
Source: Kruseman, Ruben & Kuyvenhoven (2003)
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Consumption behaviour
- Data derived from expenditure surveys (PRSP)
- Based on utility maximization: Uc = f (Umax * (1-e) -Y
- Engel curves for income-consumption relationship
- Negative exponential utility function (declining U/Y)
- Estimated for all income and consumption categories
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
POLICIES HH HigherOutputprice
LowerInputprice
ReducedTransac-tion costs
CreditSupply
Landtax
Animaltax
Rich 0.7 0.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2REVENU
Poor 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1
Rich 0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1ORGANICMATTER
Poor -0.4 0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3
Source: Ruben et al (in Lee & Barratt, 2001)
FHH Models: Supply Response to Policy Incentives (Mali)
--> Selection of feasible technologies and appropriate instruments
--> Win-win scenarios
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
+ rainfall -
area
(has
)
cow pea
sorghum
millet
maize
cotton
arachide
Source: Dietz, Ruben & Verhagen (2004)
Adaptive behaviour
Responses to decreasing rainfall:
- less cotton, more arachide
- more millet
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Options for dealing with livelihood stress
1. Food acquisition
2. Direct/Indirect Food Intensification
3. Market exchange
4. Income/Activity Diversification
5. Off-farm employment
6. Social arrangements
7. Reducing food intake
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Strategies for dealing with micronutrient deficiencies
(searching for bio-efficacy)
1. Dietary diversification
2. Supplementation
3. Post-harvest processing
4. Fortification
5. Biofortification (through breeding)
MN supply
MN demand
Uptake efficiency
Source: Slingerland et al., (2003)
Food Systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Further Perspectives
Sustainable intensification
Uptake efficiency (plants &
humans)
Chain & network integration
Multi-agency analysis
Impact of Policy instruments