Ada$amentoaicambiamen.clima.cieresilienzalocale

AntonioBallarinDen.FondazioneLombardiaperl’Ambiente

OsservatorioPra.chediResilienzaFORUM2016

Milano,29gennaio2016

Whatisadapta.on?

“Theadjustmentofnaturalorhumansystemstoactualorexpectedclimatechangeoritseffectsinordertomoderateharmorexploitbeneficialopportuni.es.”

(IPCC, 2007)

Climatechange:mi.ga.onvsadapta.on

TheCCadapta.onapproach:riskassessmentandmanagement

Vulnerability

Risk Assessment

MAPS

G.I.S.

Communication Risk prevention and reduction Emergency

management Resilience/adaptation

capacity

Risk Management Stakeholders role

Social awareness RISK GOVERNANCE

Critical areas

Risk governance: methodology

Hazards

La procedura di valutazione del rischio

Per ciascuna tipologia di rischio e per ogni cella di territorio:

INDICATORI DI PERICOLOSITA’

INDICATORI DI VULNERABILITA’

Combinazione

lineare

(somma pesata)

RISCHIO FISICO RF

i pesi

sono definiti da panel di esperti

FASE 1

INDICATORI DI RESILIENZA

Combinazione

lineare

(somma pesata)

FATTORE DI IMPATTO INDIRETTO (F)

i pesi sono definiti da pane

di esperti

FASE 2

RT = RF * (1 + F) RISCHIO TOTALE RT

FASE 3

Fondazione Lombardia per l’Ambiente

Rischi naturali e cambiamento climatico

Alcunirischinaturalisonoinfluenzabilidalladerivaclima.caglobaleedall’incrementoinfrequenzaeintensitàdieven.

meteorologiciestremi

Assessingimpacts:theclima.cdrivers

Assessingimpacts:theextremeweatherevents

ü Increaseintheconcentra.onofairpollutantsbecauseofunfavorableweathercondi.onsaffecttheirforma.onandremoval

ü Increasedforma.onofsecondaryairpollutants(O3andPM10)

Climatechangeindirectimpacts:airquality

Correlation between sensitivity of ozone and particulate matter with the main meteorological variables that influence its formation / presence in the air. Correlation consistently positive (+ +), generally positive (+), weak or variable (=), generally negative (-), and consistently negative (-). Source: D.J. Jacob, DA Winner, 2009 Average cloud cover trend in North Italy from 1050 to

2000. Sorce: Maugeri et al., 2001

Selec.onoftargets

Source: EEA, 2014

Prioritytargetsdependonclimatepressures…

…andlocalvulnerability&resiliencefactors

Theadapta.onprocess:driversandsuccessfactors

Adapta.onop.ons

•  “So^” measures:managerial,legalandpolicyapproachesthataimatalteringhumanbehaviororstylesofgovernance

•  “Grey” measures:hardop.onsaimedatreducingvulnerabilitytoCCand/orenhanceresilience

•  “Green” measures:basedonuseofnaturalsystemsorecosystemservices

Keysteps:es.matecostsandbenefits

•  Usethemostsuitableapproach(costs&benefits,costeffec<veness,mul<-criteriaanalyses

•  Considerallcostsandbenefits:economic,social,environmental

Ensureamul.levelgovernance

•  Policycoherence•  Policyintegra<oninterritorialgovernanceandspa<alplanning

•  Buildingcapacityacrossalllevelsofgovernance•  Securingaccesstofundingforadapta<onmeasures•  Developingthemul<-levelknowledgebase

•  Ins<tu<onal(sub-regionallevel)•  Administra<ve(officialofthesectorsinvolved)•  Economic(industry,agriculture,services)•  Social(educa<on,communica<on,par<cipa<on)

Involvestakeholders

•  Selectproperindicatorsofprocessandoutcome(suitableforaneffec<vedatacollec<on)

•  Usecurrentindicatorsasproxys(butbewaryofotherinfluencingfactors)

•  Adjustexis<ngM&Esystems•  Envisagenewresilienceindicators

Monitor,Report,Evaluate

•  Increaseemissionsofgreenhousegases•  Dispropor<onatelyburdenthemostvulnerablepeople

•  Havehigheropportunitycosts•  Reduceincen<vestoadapt•  Setpathsthatlimitthechoicesavailabletofuturegenera<ons

•  Transfervulnerabilitytoaneighboringareaorcountry

Avoidmalprac.ces

KeystepsintheLombardyRAS

adaptedfromRibeiroetal.2009

TheLombardyregionaladapta.onstrategy

Plenary

workshop

RAS:mainsectorsandworkingprogram

1.  Ecosystems, forests, biodiversity and protected areas;

2.  Air quality; 3.  Water resources; 4.  Energy supply; 5.  Human health; 6.  Built environment 7.  Hydro-geological risk 8.  Transport and

mobility; 9.  Agriculture; 10.  Tourism.

PhaseIIIDefini4onofthelinesofac4onfor

theadapta4onprocess

Phase0collec4onofbasicdocumenta4on

andorganiza4onoftheRAS

PhaseIVDefini4onofthespecificac4onsandmeasuresforadapta4on

PhaseI.Construc4onoftheclimatIcbases

oftheRAS

PhaseIISectoralimpactandvulnerability

assessment

causalmatrix:clima-cstressorversusclima-cimpactsbysector

Working programMain sectors

Policyreviewandsectoralrecommenda.ons

Reviewofexis-ng

successfulcaseofstudy

Reviewofexis-ngsectoralplanning

documents

Implementa-onofpar-cipatory

process

Iden-fica-onofasetofpreliminaryadapta-on

op-ons

Sectoralworkshopsregardingclimatechangeimpactsand

vulnerabilitycharacteriza-on

Evalua-on of alreadycurrent sectoral policiesand tools concerningadapta-onco-objec-ves

Proposalofsectoraladapta-on

recommenda-onsinstrategicfields:

• planning• emergencymanagement• recommenda-onsforresearchanddevelopment

Plenaryworkshop

Adapta.onpriori.esandspecificadapta.onop.ons

!

Relevantimpactspersector

Adapta.onobjec.vesProposedadapta.on

measures

Weigh-ngprocess(2parameters)i.   Relevanceofeachimpactfroma

sectoralpointofview

ii.   Needforac-onstofulfilleachadapta-onobjec-ve

Voltaire,1694-1778

«Leshommesdiscutent,lanatureagit»

“Menargue,natureacts”

Charles Darwin (1809-1882)

Adapta.oncapacityisanemergingmindset

ThankyouforyouraKen-on!