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An introduction to our analyst program
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ACIIC Analyst Program By: Ivan, Aaquib
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
ACIIC Analysts
7 schools across Canada and U.S.
Over 100 applications
39 analysts 9 from Ivey - 8 from McGill
6 from Schulich - 5 from McMaster
5 from Queens - 5 from Laurier
1 from Wharton
ANALYSTS
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The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Introducing ACIIC
Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Formally organized as a non-profit charity organization
6 member Universities across Canada today Goal of expanding from coast to coast
INTRODUCTION
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The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
ACIIC Vision
Investment education Rigorous, structured
Shared resources
Tight-knit community Alumni database
Mentorship
VISION
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The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
ACIIC Conference
Annual 2 day conference set in March
Stock pitch competition Presenting your stock report
Education series
Industry guest speakers
Networking session
CONFERENCE
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The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Stock Analyst Program
Group of 6-7 assigned to a sector One Chapter Head will be your mentor
One stock report for the next 4 month Goal is to present it at the Annual Conference
6 separate deliverables in stages
Team dialogue is important
PROGRAM
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The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Stock Analyst Program
PROGRAM
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Week of
Action Items Nov-24 Dec-1 Dec-8 Dec-15
Meet the Team
Understanding Industry Themes
Understanding Industry Drivers
Identifying Potential Stock Investments
Industry Analysis
Deliverables 4-5 PowerPoint slides
Identify the key drivers and themes
Identify several stocks that are potential investments
Choose a stock
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Stock Analyst Program
PROGRAM
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TOPIC 4 Deliverables 5-8 PowerPoint slides
Business model, how does it make money
Identify and analyze the segments of the company
Assess quality of management
Shareholder analysis
Assess competitive landscape (Porter 5 Forces, SWOT)
Calculate ratios, DuPont analysis, comparable valuation
Week of
Action Items Dec-29 Jan-5 Jan-12 Jan-19
Investment Thesis
Company Overview, Segment Analysis, Mangement Analysis, Shareholder Analysis
Competitive Analysis vs. Peers
Comparable Analysis
Company Analysis
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Stock Analyst Program
PROGRAM
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TOPIC 4 Deliverables 4-5 PowerPoint slides
Operating assumptions should reflect company and industry analysis
Perform DCF valuation
Have at least one other valuation methodology that is relevant to the company
Week of
Action Items Jan-26 Feb-2 Feb-9
Operating Assumptions: Understanding Key Drivers
DCF
Other Valuation: Precedent, Sum of the Parts, LBO, Liquidation Value, NAV
Valuation
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Stock Analyst Program
PROGRAM
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TOPIC 4 Deliverables 2-3 PowerPoint slides
Risks to the downside (great if you can quantify)
Potential mitigants
Catalyst in the short term horizon (soft and hard)
Week of
Action Items Feb-16
Risks to Valuation and Potential Mitigants, Catalyst
Risks & Catalyst
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Stock Analyst Program
PROGRAM
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TOPIC 4 Deliverables 4-5 PowerPoint slides
Operational or financial strategy that the company can employ to enhance valuation
Example, if you forecasted margin expansion or to increase cross selling, how is that achieved
Potential acquisition and other transformative transactions
Week of
Action Items Feb-23 Mar-2
Potential Transformative Value Creation Strategies
Strategy
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Stock Analyst Program
PROGRAM
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TOPIC 4 Deliverables ~20 PowerPoint slides
Compile your presentation and summarize the salient points
Practice it together
Polished
Week of
Action Items Mar-9 Mar-16
Presentation
Presentation
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Stock Analyst Program
Resources We are here to help
Chapter Head
Industry Mentors
Each Other
Mentorship Mentorship database
Recruitment or questions in general
PROGRAM
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The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Allocation
SECTORS
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FIG Matthew Parrott
TMT Mario Campea
CRG Colton Dick
Industrials Artie Novik
HC Geoff Clark
NR Dave Marrello
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Financial Institutions Group (FIG)
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Matthew Parrott Eric Luo
Alex Hong
Andre Luk
Alex Payne
Andrew Gibbs
Krishna Aggarwal
Sebastian Grutter
SECTORS
FIG By: Matt Parrott
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
What is FIG?
Financial Institution Group
Three main sub-sectors Banks
Insurance Companies
Asset Managers and Specialty Finance
WHAT IS FIG
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
INVESTING
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Recent Themes
Increased regulation Implementation of Basel III
Rising interest rates Insurance companies to benefit the most
Rotation from bonds to equities Asset managers to benefit the most
THEMES
WHAT IS FIG
KEY DRIVERS
INVESTING
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Key Drivers
Economic growth The financials sector is often considered a
levered play on the economy
Interest rates and inflation
Consumer and business confidence
Fund flows
KEY DRIVERS
WHAT IS FIG
THEMES
INVESTING
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Investing
Most widely used metric is P/B
Regression between P/B and ROE
Asset/dividend based models as opposed to cash flow models
INVESTING
WHAT IS FIG
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sample Investment Thesis
Macro Expectations that interest rates will rise and
equity markets will rally
Micro Insurance company X has the lowest combined
ratio relative to its peers
Valuation Currently trading at a discount on a P/B basis
THESIS
WHAT IS FIG
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
INVESTING
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Questions
FIG By: Matt Parrott
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
TMT (Tech, Media, Telecom)
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Mario Campea Matt Ting
Jin Hwang
Emerson Dieudonne
Julie Vincent
David Greenman
Sean Saggi
Emily Ren
SECTORS
Technology, Media & Telecom By: Mario Campea & Mikhail Stepanov
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
TMT Overview / Trends
Technology
Software Generally refers to computer programs and applications that dictate
specific functions
Hardware Physical elements that a computing system is made of
Many companies sell both Hardware and Software components (ex. IBM)
TECHNOLOGY
MEDIA
TELECOM
KEY DRIVERS
EX. THESIS
KEY METRICS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
TMT Overview / Trends
Technology
Internet Companies that have majority focus on selling products and services using
Internet as main delivery platform
Includes social media, advertising, search engines, user review, e-Commerce, etc.
Cloud Computing Refers to companies that deliver hosted services over the Internet
Software as a Services (SaaS): Vendors deliver applications to customers
Platform as a Service (PaaS): Customers can rent hardware, storage, etc. from vendors
TECHNOLOGY
MEDIA
TELECOM
KEY DRIVERS
EX. THESIS
KEY METRICS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
TMT Overview / Trends
Media
Advertising Usually an in-house function of corporate finance
Investment opportunities emerging in the mobile space
Broadcasting Incredibly saturated industry, with large players being the only ones scalable
enough to compete
Usually a portion of a larger conglomerate (e.g. Rogers Communications, Time Warner Cable)
Very little pure-play broadcasting companies due to high overhead required to compete
Many private companies (e.g. CNBC, Fox News)
TECHNOLOGY
MEDIA
TELECOM
KEY DRIVERS
EX. THESIS
KEY METRICS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
TMT Overview / Trends
Telecom
Carriers Wireline/ Wireless Provide telecommunication services through either wireless or wireline
Ex. Rogers, Bell, AT&T, Verizon
Satellites Provide satellite communication services
Ex. Sirius, Dish Network
TECHNOLOGY
MEDIA
TELECOM
KEY DRIVERS
EX. THESIS
KEY METRICS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Key Drivers
Example TMT Key Success Factors
Potential for Rapid Growth Many investors look to the TMT space specifically for rapidly growing companies
that could provide outsized returns
These high expectations relative to other industries make investors associate this space with a riskier profile
Ex. Twitter
Significant R&D Expenditures R&D expenditure is a key requirement in TMT in order to sustain innovation
Effective R&D will lead to the creation of a patent portfolio and other developments that assist in creating competitive advantages
Ex. Apple
Strong User Base / Defendable Position A strong user base is key to generating sustainable earnings
Providing value to your users through a strong ecosystem will create a defendable position that could prevent being displaced from the market
Ex. iOS App Store
TECHNOLOGY
MEDIA
TELECOM
KEY DRIVERS
EX. THESIS
KEY METRICS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Metrics to Look For
TMT Specific Multiples
Enterprise Value / Revenue Many early-stage TMT companies have little to no profits
Serves as a proxy for the P/E ratio
Compares the entire value of the firm to the revenues generated
Inherent limitations: ignores profitability completely
Important to look at the change in multiples over time
Enterprise Value / Users Company may lack revenues, or it may not be a sound basis for comparison
For most such companies, users are the main driver behind revenue
Google, Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn, etc.
Forward multiples are very important
Inherent limitation: ignores revenue generation completely
TECHNOLOGY
MEDIA
TELECOM
KEY DRIVERS
EX. THESIS
KEY METRICS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Metrics to Look For
Other Core Metrics
Subscriber or user growth rate Since users drive revenues, user growth is critical to TMT
Retention rate High retention rates indicate more stable revenues and cash flows
Can indicate quality of product and distinguish fads
Time on site More time means more potential exposure to advertisements and products
Paying Users/ Users What percentage of users actually contribute to revenues
Revenue per user Compliments above metrics, and the EV / U multiple
TECHNOLOGY
MEDIA
TELECOM
KEY DRIVERS
EX. THESIS
KEY METRICS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Example Thesis
Post MSFT deal, the company has been transformed
Pure play network services infrastructure leader
Focus on the companys strongest business segment
Divestiture of non-core assets to unlock shareholder value
Monetization of industry leading patent portfolio
Previously defensive segment allows for growth
Unfair overhanging Nokia could Historically deteriorating performance of the handset business
Different ways to value the business
Network services infrastructure using a DCF and comparables
Patent portfolio using precedents and Gordon Growth method
TECHNOLOGY
MEDIA
TELECOM
KEY DRIVERS
EX. THESIS
KEY METRICS
Nokia
Technology, Media & Telecom By: Mario Campea & Mikhail Stepanov
November 24, 2013
I apologize for being unable to attend. Please feel free to reach out and we can arrange a chat. Mario Campea ([email protected])
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
CRG (Consumer, Retail)
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Colton Dick Vinayak Modi
Will Zed
Daniel Viner
Steven Lo
Erik Chu
Fred Jackson
Asem Mosmer
SECTORS
Consumer Discretionary & Staples Industry By: Colton Dick
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Industry Introduction
Consumer Staples: Non-cyclical companies that sell food, beverage, tobacco,
and other household items
Consumer Discretionary Cyclical companies that sell durable and non-durable
products/services; considered non-necessities
INTRO
THEMES
DRIVERS
OPPORTUNITY
TJX
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Recent Industry Themes
U.S. economic recovery distribution of recovery is not equal
Luxury
Discount - Those that need a bargain and those that want a bargain.
Canadian grocer consolidation Loblaw/Shoppers & Empire/Safeway
Recent earnings prove Canadian environment is saturated and extremely competitive
THEMES
INTRO
DRIVERS
OPPORTUNITY
TJX
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Recovery Gains
THEMES
INTRO
DRIVERS
OPPORTUNITY
TJX
Negative real income gains heightens the number of value conscious consumers
(0.8%)
(1.2%) (1.2%) (1.2%)
2.0%
5.2%
(2.0%)
(1.0%)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Lowest Fifth Second Fifth Third Fifth Fourth Fifth Highest Fifth Top 5 %
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Increasing Valuations
THEMES
INTRO
DRIVERS
OPPORTUNITY
TJX
21%
11%
17%
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013
U.S. Normalized NTM P/E Growth
S5COND Index S5CONS Index SPX Index
Discretionary has seen margin expansion relative to the S&P500, whereas Staples has seen a relative margin contraction
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Industry Key Drivers
Macro Drivers Unemployment Rate
Outstanding Household Debt
Real Disposable Income
Emerging Market & European Recovery
Micro Drivers Same Store Sales Growth
Food Inflation
Margin Expansion
Pricing Power
DRIVERS
INTRO
THEMES
OPPORTUNITY
TJX
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Industry Opportunities
Off-Price & Luxury Retail
Gaming
Newspapers
Diversified Food Packagers
OPPORTUNITY
INTRO
THEMES
DRIVERS
TJX
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
TJX Investment Thesis
TJX
INTRO
THEMES
DRIVERS
OPPORTUNITY
The Market is undervaluing.
Especially to its only true competitors ROSS
Marmaxx Remodel Compete with department store experience
eCommerce Potential significant growth Consumer analytics insight
HomeGoods Store growth in USA, SSS driven by housing recovery
Europe Store growth in new/existing countries Convergence to US margins
Global Buying Organization
Barrier to entry Foundation for successful international expansion Continued margin expansion
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
TJX Investment Thesis
TJX
INTRO
THEMES
DRIVERS
OPPORTUNITY
TJXs dominance as a leader in off-price retail is reflected by a high return on invested capital and as such, commands a premium to its peers
Data as at November 20, 2013
(in US$ millions) Market Enterprise adj. EV / adj. EBITDAR( 1) ( 2 ) P / E( 1) ( 2 ) adj. Net Debt / adj. EBITDAR( 1) ( 2 ) SSS Growth LTM EBITDA LTM
Company Cap. Value CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E LTM Margin ROIC
Off-Price Retailers
Big Lots $2,204 $2,281 6.8x 6.5x 6.5x 13.0x 11.7x 11.3x 3.7x 3.6x 3.6x (2.7%) 7.2% 19.2%
Ross Stores $17,844 $17,443 10.3x 9.6x 9.0x 20.6x 18.3x 16.2x 1.6x 1.5x 1.4x 6.0% 15.4% 43.6%
Stein Mart $695 $647 8.1x 7.8x nmf 22.8x 20.3x 18.5x 3.6x 3.5x 7.4x 2.7% 5.6% 10.6%
Burlington Coat $1,544 $3,205 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.2% 7.6% n/a
Average 8.4x 8.0x 7.8x 18.8x 16.8x 15.3x 3.0x 2.9x 4.1x 1.8% 8.9% 24.5%
TJX Companies $46,218.21 $45,482 10.7x 9.9x 9.3x 22.0x 19.4x 17.4x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x 7.0% 14.4% 43.8%
Notes:
Share price as at November 20, 2013
(1) EV, and Net Debt adjusted for capitalized operating leases
(2) All estimates are consensus as at November 20, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Questions
Consumer Discretionary & Staples Industry By: Colton Dick
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Industrials
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Artie Novik Ryan Haydon
Jonathan Kim
John Lu
Chris Pepper
Dean Brown
Hyla Nayeri
SECTORS
Industrials By: Artie Novikov
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Overview
Diverse sector including companies involved with: Capital Goods
Aerospace & Defense
Building Products
Construction & Engineering
Electrical Equipment
Industrial Conglomerates
Machinery
Services Commercial Services & Supplies
Professional Services
Transportation
Air Freight & Logistics
Airlines
Marine
Road & Rail
Transportation Infrastructure
INTRODUCTION
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
KEY RISKS
THESIS
SPECIFICS
RETURNS
QUESTIONS Market Cap $7.77T
P/E 20.4 x
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Themes & Trends
Services an increasingly important source of revenues
Industrials scaling back on operational leverage
Focus on cost reductions and divestiture of non-core operations
THEMES
INTRODUCTION
KEY DRIVERS
KEY RISKS
THESIS
SPECIFICS
RETURNS
QUESTIONS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Key Drivers
Performance largely driven by demand for building construction, manufactured products, and capital goods
GDP growth provides good indicator of future demand
Growth in government spending
Large infrastructure projects
KEY DRIVERS
INTRODUCTION
THEMES
KEY RISKS
THESIS
SPECIFICS
RETURNS
QUESTIONS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Key Risks
Large companies putting off investments due to uncertain economic conditions
Increasing interest rates
Declining budget environment for several subsectors
KEY RISKS
INTRODUCTION
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
THESIS
SPECIFICS
RETURNS
QUESTIONS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Specifics
PMI is a good leading indicator of industrial production
Generation of Free Cash Flow is key
Airlines: EV/Plane
EV/Passenger
Infrastructure: EV/NAV
P/B
SPECIFICS
INTRODUCTION
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
THESIS
KEY RISKS
RETURNS
QUESTIONS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Thesis Example
Micro
High return on capital
Barriers to entry
High margins relative to industry
Good management
THESIS
INTRODUCTION
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SPECIFICS
KEY RISKS
RETURNS
QUESTIONS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Thesis Example
Macro Important to understand what is happening at
the subsector, sector, and national levels
GDP reports & forecasts: U.S., China, Germany
Setup What is the current state of your pitch?
52-week highs/lows
Short-interest
THESIS
INTRODUCTION
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SPECIFICS
KEY RISKS
RETURNS
QUESTIONS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Performance
RETURNS
INTRODUCTION
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SPECIFICS
KEY RISKS
TOPIC 7
QUESTIONS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Questions
Industrials By: Artie Novikov
March 9, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
NR (Natural Resources)
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David Marrello Karishma Balani
Bill Cong
Akshay Gujral
Darren Viegas
Egor Gaggin
Jenny Kletnich
SECTORS
Natural Resources By: David Marrello
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Intro
Metals and Mining Was once Canadas most important sector
Major underperformer for 2013 (-24% for the year)
Key Canadian companies in the sector include Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, and Potash Corp.
Success of the industry highly dependent on the prices of underlying precious metals
Companies have different specialties: as producers or as explorers
SEC. INTROS
SEC. THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
INVESTING
SAMPLE THES.
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Intro
Energy Includes: Petroleum, Gas, Electrical Power,
Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables
Currently Canadas second most important sector
Also an underperformer for 2013 (8% for the year
Key Canadian companies in the sector include
Suncor, CNR, Encana, Talisman, & Imperial Oil
Success of the industry highly dependent on the prices of underlying commodities
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Themes
Mining and Metals Shift in mining focus towards developing nations
The profound impact of new technology (ex. Arctic mining)
The increased importance of small to medium sized miners
Energy Increased prominence of renewable technologies and
decreased reliance on nuclear
A shift in demand from developed nations to developing nations
New technologies (deepwater drilling now only 9% but increasing)
The profound impact of new technology (ex Deepwater drilling)
US energy independence
SEC. THEMES
SEC. INTROS
KEY DRIVERS
INVESTING
SAMPLE THES.
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Key Drivers
Metals and Mining Prices of Underlying Precious Metals (gold, silver,
diamonds)
Production efficiencies of miners
Regulation (threat of nationalization)
Ability to raise debt/equity, and cash flow
Macroeconomic considerations
Energy Underlying commodity prices
Government subsidies and regulations
Global demand and supply outlook
Mergers and Acquisitions
KEY DRIVERS
SEC. INTROS
SEC. THEMES
INVESTING
SAMPLE THES.
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Investing Specifics
Key Industry Metrics
Metals and Mining Production/Capacity/Reserves (typically measured in
weight)
Cash flow from operations
EBITDAX
Net Asset Value Model
Typified by long lasting, but punctuated cycles
Energy Production/Capacity/Reserves (typically measured in
barrels or other volume measure)
EBITDAX
Net Asset Value Model
Dividend yield may be a consideration
INVESTING
SEC. INTROS
SEC. THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SAMPLE THES.
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs Sample Investment Thesis
1. Larger multi-mineral mining companies are leaving the industry to pursue the opportunities that come with increased demand for other commodities such as steel, iron, copper etc; giving companies such as Dominion Diamond Corporation the opportunity to step in and increase their market share in the diamond industry substantially.
2. The rough-diamond market is expected to remain balanced from 2013 through 2017. From 2018 onward, as existing mines get depleted and no major new deposits come online, supply is expected to decline, falling behind expected demand growth that will be driven by China, India and the US.
3. Proved and Probable Recoverable and Attributable Reserves showing signs of growth, especially from 2012 to 2013:expected to grow from 30840 T to 37080 T
4. Current Ekati mine plan calls for further seven years of production until 2019, however Dominion Diamond Corp has discovered additional resources on Ekati property.
Dominion Diamonds
SAMPLE THES.
SEC. INTROS
SEC. THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
INVESTING
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Thesis Continued
The Company is the fourth largest diamond producer by value globally
Largest publicly listed diamond mining pure play by market capitalization
Both mines located in the low political risk environment
In Q3, a 62% increase in carats sold was offset by a 9% decrease in achieved diamond prices
Rough prices had picked up by about 6% in the first months of the year
Since then, prices have been flat
Production at the Misery pit, where stripping is under way, is slated to begin in 2016.
One-time expenses due to purchase of Ekati resulted in the US$16.3-million net loss
Excluding such one-time items, the company would have seen $11.1 million, or 13 a share, in profit
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Investment Thesis Continued
At $14/share, Dominion is undervalued
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Questions
Natural Resources By: David Marrello
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Healthcare
TOPIC 1
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TOPIC 5
TOPIC 4
TOPIC 6
Geoff Clark Tianhao Fang
Wahaaj Ud Din
Tanveer Randhawa
Rahul Sharma
Dmitry Kutsyy
SECTORS
Healthcare By: Geoffrey Clark
November 24, 2013
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Introduction
The healthcare sector is made of many different sub-industries Pharmaceuticals and biotechs: Manufacturers
of drugs
Device manufacturers: Medical equipment
Hospitals
Health-insurers
INTRODUCTION
RECENT
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Recent Themes
Shift towards a single-payer system in the U.S. Obamacare, Medicare, Medicaid
Healthcare spending growing in relation to GDP Currently at 18% of U.S. GDP and growing at 4%
annually Sector growing too fast for its own good
Focus is on cutting costs, companies that can will be successful
Employers passing burden on employees Rising costs of insurance Increased amount of part-time/contract workers
RECENT
THEMES
INTRODUCTION
KEY DRIVERS
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Recent Themes
Changing demographics from aging population People are living longer and suffering from chronic
diseases for more of their lives
Environmental factors Air and water pollution are increasing the
prevalence of conditions like asthma
Rise of problems like obesity, diabetes and allergies
Increased prevalence and awareness of mental disabilities
RECENT
THEMES
INTRODUCTION
KEY DRIVERS
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Key Drivers
Government budgets For most states, Medicaid is the number one
cost
Healthcare spending growing faster than other categories
KEY DRIVERS
INTRODUCTION
RECENT
THEMES
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Key Drivers
Management Innovation Company must be able to offer innovative
solutions to meaningfully impact diseases Either be first in the area or be the best
Companies must find ways to cut costs Healthcare is too expensive
Upcoming clinical trials A trial failure or an increase in time to market
can cripple some companies
KEY DRIVERS
INTRODUCTION
RECENT
THEMES
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Specifics
Pharmaceuticals and Biotechs Patent protection: Intellectual property is key
Difficult to make money when generic brands are available
Long and expensive process to bring products to market FDA and other regulatory approvals take time
High R&D budgets Look for companies with consistent success in
developing innovative products
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
INTRODUCTION
RECENT
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Specifics
Facilities Focus on operating costs and sustained cost
advantages
Large and well-funded systems vs. local hospitals Significant M&A activity between the two
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
INTRODUCTION
RECENT
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sector Specifics
Health Insurers and Managed Care Providers: Focus on medical cost ratio, the reverse of
operating profit Healthcare costs divided by revenue from premiums
Shows whether the company is skilled in underwriting
Affected by interest rates Most investment holdings are short-term,
investment grade fixed income securities
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
INTRODUCTION
RECENT
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Sample Investment Thesis
For company XYZ in healthcare facilities: Leading market share in large and growing
urban centers
Economies of scale act as barrier to entry to newcomers and protect against existing local hospitals
Benefiting from increased M&A activity with a balance sheet that can support it
SAMPLE
INVESTMENT
THESIS
INTRODUCTION
RECENT
THEMES
KEY DRIVERS
SECTOR
SPECIFICS
The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs
Questions
ACIIC Analyst Program By: Ivan, Aaquib
November 24, 2013