ACIIC Analyst Program

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  • ACIIC Analyst Program By: Ivan, Aaquib

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    ACIIC Analysts

    7 schools across Canada and U.S.

    Over 100 applications

    39 analysts 9 from Ivey - 8 from McGill

    6 from Schulich - 5 from McMaster

    5 from Queens - 5 from Laurier

    1 from Wharton

    ANALYSTS

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  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Introducing ACIIC

    Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Formally organized as a non-profit charity organization

    6 member Universities across Canada today Goal of expanding from coast to coast

    INTRODUCTION

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  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    ACIIC Vision

    Investment education Rigorous, structured

    Shared resources

    Tight-knit community Alumni database

    Mentorship

    VISION

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  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    ACIIC Conference

    Annual 2 day conference set in March

    Stock pitch competition Presenting your stock report

    Education series

    Industry guest speakers

    Networking session

    CONFERENCE

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  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Stock Analyst Program

    Group of 6-7 assigned to a sector One Chapter Head will be your mentor

    One stock report for the next 4 month Goal is to present it at the Annual Conference

    6 separate deliverables in stages

    Team dialogue is important

    PROGRAM

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  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Stock Analyst Program

    PROGRAM

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    Week of

    Action Items Nov-24 Dec-1 Dec-8 Dec-15

    Meet the Team

    Understanding Industry Themes

    Understanding Industry Drivers

    Identifying Potential Stock Investments

    Industry Analysis

    Deliverables 4-5 PowerPoint slides

    Identify the key drivers and themes

    Identify several stocks that are potential investments

    Choose a stock

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Stock Analyst Program

    PROGRAM

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    TOPIC 4 Deliverables 5-8 PowerPoint slides

    Business model, how does it make money

    Identify and analyze the segments of the company

    Assess quality of management

    Shareholder analysis

    Assess competitive landscape (Porter 5 Forces, SWOT)

    Calculate ratios, DuPont analysis, comparable valuation

    Week of

    Action Items Dec-29 Jan-5 Jan-12 Jan-19

    Investment Thesis

    Company Overview, Segment Analysis, Mangement Analysis, Shareholder Analysis

    Competitive Analysis vs. Peers

    Comparable Analysis

    Company Analysis

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Stock Analyst Program

    PROGRAM

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    TOPIC 4 Deliverables 4-5 PowerPoint slides

    Operating assumptions should reflect company and industry analysis

    Perform DCF valuation

    Have at least one other valuation methodology that is relevant to the company

    Week of

    Action Items Jan-26 Feb-2 Feb-9

    Operating Assumptions: Understanding Key Drivers

    DCF

    Other Valuation: Precedent, Sum of the Parts, LBO, Liquidation Value, NAV

    Valuation

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Stock Analyst Program

    PROGRAM

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    TOPIC 4 Deliverables 2-3 PowerPoint slides

    Risks to the downside (great if you can quantify)

    Potential mitigants

    Catalyst in the short term horizon (soft and hard)

    Week of

    Action Items Feb-16

    Risks to Valuation and Potential Mitigants, Catalyst

    Risks & Catalyst

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Stock Analyst Program

    PROGRAM

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    TOPIC 4 Deliverables 4-5 PowerPoint slides

    Operational or financial strategy that the company can employ to enhance valuation

    Example, if you forecasted margin expansion or to increase cross selling, how is that achieved

    Potential acquisition and other transformative transactions

    Week of

    Action Items Feb-23 Mar-2

    Potential Transformative Value Creation Strategies

    Strategy

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Stock Analyst Program

    PROGRAM

    TOPIC 1

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    TOPIC 4 Deliverables ~20 PowerPoint slides

    Compile your presentation and summarize the salient points

    Practice it together

    Polished

    Week of

    Action Items Mar-9 Mar-16

    Presentation

    Presentation

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Stock Analyst Program

    Resources We are here to help

    Chapter Head

    Industry Mentors

    Each Other

    Mentorship Mentorship database

    Recruitment or questions in general

    PROGRAM

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  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Allocation

    SECTORS

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    FIG Matthew Parrott

    TMT Mario Campea

    CRG Colton Dick

    Industrials Artie Novik

    HC Geoff Clark

    NR Dave Marrello

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Financial Institutions Group (FIG)

    TOPIC 1

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    Matthew Parrott Eric Luo

    Alex Hong

    Andre Luk

    Alex Payne

    Andrew Gibbs

    Krishna Aggarwal

    Sebastian Grutter

    SECTORS

  • FIG By: Matt Parrott

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    What is FIG?

    Financial Institution Group

    Three main sub-sectors Banks

    Insurance Companies

    Asset Managers and Specialty Finance

    WHAT IS FIG

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    INVESTING

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Recent Themes

    Increased regulation Implementation of Basel III

    Rising interest rates Insurance companies to benefit the most

    Rotation from bonds to equities Asset managers to benefit the most

    THEMES

    WHAT IS FIG

    KEY DRIVERS

    INVESTING

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Key Drivers

    Economic growth The financials sector is often considered a

    levered play on the economy

    Interest rates and inflation

    Consumer and business confidence

    Fund flows

    KEY DRIVERS

    WHAT IS FIG

    THEMES

    INVESTING

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Investing

    Most widely used metric is P/B

    Regression between P/B and ROE

    Asset/dividend based models as opposed to cash flow models

    INVESTING

    WHAT IS FIG

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sample Investment Thesis

    Macro Expectations that interest rates will rise and

    equity markets will rally

    Micro Insurance company X has the lowest combined

    ratio relative to its peers

    Valuation Currently trading at a discount on a P/B basis

    THESIS

    WHAT IS FIG

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    INVESTING

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Questions

    FIG By: Matt Parrott

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    TMT (Tech, Media, Telecom)

    TOPIC 1

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    Mario Campea Matt Ting

    Jin Hwang

    Emerson Dieudonne

    Julie Vincent

    David Greenman

    Sean Saggi

    Emily Ren

    SECTORS

  • Technology, Media & Telecom By: Mario Campea & Mikhail Stepanov

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    TMT Overview / Trends

    Technology

    Software Generally refers to computer programs and applications that dictate

    specific functions

    Hardware Physical elements that a computing system is made of

    Many companies sell both Hardware and Software components (ex. IBM)

    TECHNOLOGY

    MEDIA

    TELECOM

    KEY DRIVERS

    EX. THESIS

    KEY METRICS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    TMT Overview / Trends

    Technology

    Internet Companies that have majority focus on selling products and services using

    Internet as main delivery platform

    Includes social media, advertising, search engines, user review, e-Commerce, etc.

    Cloud Computing Refers to companies that deliver hosted services over the Internet

    Software as a Services (SaaS): Vendors deliver applications to customers

    Platform as a Service (PaaS): Customers can rent hardware, storage, etc. from vendors

    TECHNOLOGY

    MEDIA

    TELECOM

    KEY DRIVERS

    EX. THESIS

    KEY METRICS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    TMT Overview / Trends

    Media

    Advertising Usually an in-house function of corporate finance

    Investment opportunities emerging in the mobile space

    Broadcasting Incredibly saturated industry, with large players being the only ones scalable

    enough to compete

    Usually a portion of a larger conglomerate (e.g. Rogers Communications, Time Warner Cable)

    Very little pure-play broadcasting companies due to high overhead required to compete

    Many private companies (e.g. CNBC, Fox News)

    TECHNOLOGY

    MEDIA

    TELECOM

    KEY DRIVERS

    EX. THESIS

    KEY METRICS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    TMT Overview / Trends

    Telecom

    Carriers Wireline/ Wireless Provide telecommunication services through either wireless or wireline

    Ex. Rogers, Bell, AT&T, Verizon

    Satellites Provide satellite communication services

    Ex. Sirius, Dish Network

    TECHNOLOGY

    MEDIA

    TELECOM

    KEY DRIVERS

    EX. THESIS

    KEY METRICS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Key Drivers

    Example TMT Key Success Factors

    Potential for Rapid Growth Many investors look to the TMT space specifically for rapidly growing companies

    that could provide outsized returns

    These high expectations relative to other industries make investors associate this space with a riskier profile

    Ex. Twitter

    Significant R&D Expenditures R&D expenditure is a key requirement in TMT in order to sustain innovation

    Effective R&D will lead to the creation of a patent portfolio and other developments that assist in creating competitive advantages

    Ex. Apple

    Strong User Base / Defendable Position A strong user base is key to generating sustainable earnings

    Providing value to your users through a strong ecosystem will create a defendable position that could prevent being displaced from the market

    Ex. iOS App Store

    TECHNOLOGY

    MEDIA

    TELECOM

    KEY DRIVERS

    EX. THESIS

    KEY METRICS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Metrics to Look For

    TMT Specific Multiples

    Enterprise Value / Revenue Many early-stage TMT companies have little to no profits

    Serves as a proxy for the P/E ratio

    Compares the entire value of the firm to the revenues generated

    Inherent limitations: ignores profitability completely

    Important to look at the change in multiples over time

    Enterprise Value / Users Company may lack revenues, or it may not be a sound basis for comparison

    For most such companies, users are the main driver behind revenue

    Google, Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn, etc.

    Forward multiples are very important

    Inherent limitation: ignores revenue generation completely

    TECHNOLOGY

    MEDIA

    TELECOM

    KEY DRIVERS

    EX. THESIS

    KEY METRICS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Metrics to Look For

    Other Core Metrics

    Subscriber or user growth rate Since users drive revenues, user growth is critical to TMT

    Retention rate High retention rates indicate more stable revenues and cash flows

    Can indicate quality of product and distinguish fads

    Time on site More time means more potential exposure to advertisements and products

    Paying Users/ Users What percentage of users actually contribute to revenues

    Revenue per user Compliments above metrics, and the EV / U multiple

    TECHNOLOGY

    MEDIA

    TELECOM

    KEY DRIVERS

    EX. THESIS

    KEY METRICS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Example Thesis

    Post MSFT deal, the company has been transformed

    Pure play network services infrastructure leader

    Focus on the companys strongest business segment

    Divestiture of non-core assets to unlock shareholder value

    Monetization of industry leading patent portfolio

    Previously defensive segment allows for growth

    Unfair overhanging Nokia could Historically deteriorating performance of the handset business

    Different ways to value the business

    Network services infrastructure using a DCF and comparables

    Patent portfolio using precedents and Gordon Growth method

    TECHNOLOGY

    MEDIA

    TELECOM

    KEY DRIVERS

    EX. THESIS

    KEY METRICS

    Nokia

  • Technology, Media & Telecom By: Mario Campea & Mikhail Stepanov

    November 24, 2013

    I apologize for being unable to attend. Please feel free to reach out and we can arrange a chat. Mario Campea ([email protected])

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    CRG (Consumer, Retail)

    TOPIC 1

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    Colton Dick Vinayak Modi

    Will Zed

    Daniel Viner

    Steven Lo

    Erik Chu

    Fred Jackson

    Asem Mosmer

    SECTORS

  • Consumer Discretionary & Staples Industry By: Colton Dick

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Industry Introduction

    Consumer Staples: Non-cyclical companies that sell food, beverage, tobacco,

    and other household items

    Consumer Discretionary Cyclical companies that sell durable and non-durable

    products/services; considered non-necessities

    INTRO

    THEMES

    DRIVERS

    OPPORTUNITY

    TJX

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Recent Industry Themes

    U.S. economic recovery distribution of recovery is not equal

    Luxury

    Discount - Those that need a bargain and those that want a bargain.

    Canadian grocer consolidation Loblaw/Shoppers & Empire/Safeway

    Recent earnings prove Canadian environment is saturated and extremely competitive

    THEMES

    INTRO

    DRIVERS

    OPPORTUNITY

    TJX

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Recovery Gains

    THEMES

    INTRO

    DRIVERS

    OPPORTUNITY

    TJX

    Negative real income gains heightens the number of value conscious consumers

    (0.8%)

    (1.2%) (1.2%) (1.2%)

    2.0%

    5.2%

    (2.0%)

    (1.0%)

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    Lowest Fifth Second Fifth Third Fifth Fourth Fifth Highest Fifth Top 5 %

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Increasing Valuations

    THEMES

    INTRO

    DRIVERS

    OPPORTUNITY

    TJX

    21%

    11%

    17%

    0.9

    0.95

    1

    1.05

    1.1

    1.15

    1.2

    1.25

    1.3

    2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013

    U.S. Normalized NTM P/E Growth

    S5COND Index S5CONS Index SPX Index

    Discretionary has seen margin expansion relative to the S&P500, whereas Staples has seen a relative margin contraction

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Industry Key Drivers

    Macro Drivers Unemployment Rate

    Outstanding Household Debt

    Real Disposable Income

    Emerging Market & European Recovery

    Micro Drivers Same Store Sales Growth

    Food Inflation

    Margin Expansion

    Pricing Power

    DRIVERS

    INTRO

    THEMES

    OPPORTUNITY

    TJX

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Industry Opportunities

    Off-Price & Luxury Retail

    Gaming

    Newspapers

    Diversified Food Packagers

    OPPORTUNITY

    INTRO

    THEMES

    DRIVERS

    TJX

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    TJX Investment Thesis

    TJX

    INTRO

    THEMES

    DRIVERS

    OPPORTUNITY

    The Market is undervaluing.

    Especially to its only true competitors ROSS

    Marmaxx Remodel Compete with department store experience

    eCommerce Potential significant growth Consumer analytics insight

    HomeGoods Store growth in USA, SSS driven by housing recovery

    Europe Store growth in new/existing countries Convergence to US margins

    Global Buying Organization

    Barrier to entry Foundation for successful international expansion Continued margin expansion

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    TJX Investment Thesis

    TJX

    INTRO

    THEMES

    DRIVERS

    OPPORTUNITY

    TJXs dominance as a leader in off-price retail is reflected by a high return on invested capital and as such, commands a premium to its peers

    Data as at November 20, 2013

    (in US$ millions) Market Enterprise adj. EV / adj. EBITDAR( 1) ( 2 ) P / E( 1) ( 2 ) adj. Net Debt / adj. EBITDAR( 1) ( 2 ) SSS Growth LTM EBITDA LTM

    Company Cap. Value CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E LTM Margin ROIC

    Off-Price Retailers

    Big Lots $2,204 $2,281 6.8x 6.5x 6.5x 13.0x 11.7x 11.3x 3.7x 3.6x 3.6x (2.7%) 7.2% 19.2%

    Ross Stores $17,844 $17,443 10.3x 9.6x 9.0x 20.6x 18.3x 16.2x 1.6x 1.5x 1.4x 6.0% 15.4% 43.6%

    Stein Mart $695 $647 8.1x 7.8x nmf 22.8x 20.3x 18.5x 3.6x 3.5x 7.4x 2.7% 5.6% 10.6%

    Burlington Coat $1,544 $3,205 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.2% 7.6% n/a

    Average 8.4x 8.0x 7.8x 18.8x 16.8x 15.3x 3.0x 2.9x 4.1x 1.8% 8.9% 24.5%

    TJX Companies $46,218.21 $45,482 10.7x 9.9x 9.3x 22.0x 19.4x 17.4x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x 7.0% 14.4% 43.8%

    Notes:

    Share price as at November 20, 2013

    (1) EV, and Net Debt adjusted for capitalized operating leases

    (2) All estimates are consensus as at November 20, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Questions

    Consumer Discretionary & Staples Industry By: Colton Dick

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Industrials

    TOPIC 1

    TOPIC 2

    TOPIC 3

    TOPIC 5

    TOPIC 4

    TOPIC 6

    Artie Novik Ryan Haydon

    Jonathan Kim

    John Lu

    Chris Pepper

    Dean Brown

    Hyla Nayeri

    SECTORS

  • Industrials By: Artie Novikov

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Overview

    Diverse sector including companies involved with: Capital Goods

    Aerospace & Defense

    Building Products

    Construction & Engineering

    Electrical Equipment

    Industrial Conglomerates

    Machinery

    Services Commercial Services & Supplies

    Professional Services

    Transportation

    Air Freight & Logistics

    Airlines

    Marine

    Road & Rail

    Transportation Infrastructure

    INTRODUCTION

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    KEY RISKS

    THESIS

    SPECIFICS

    RETURNS

    QUESTIONS Market Cap $7.77T

    P/E 20.4 x

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Themes & Trends

    Services an increasingly important source of revenues

    Industrials scaling back on operational leverage

    Focus on cost reductions and divestiture of non-core operations

    THEMES

    INTRODUCTION

    KEY DRIVERS

    KEY RISKS

    THESIS

    SPECIFICS

    RETURNS

    QUESTIONS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Key Drivers

    Performance largely driven by demand for building construction, manufactured products, and capital goods

    GDP growth provides good indicator of future demand

    Growth in government spending

    Large infrastructure projects

    KEY DRIVERS

    INTRODUCTION

    THEMES

    KEY RISKS

    THESIS

    SPECIFICS

    RETURNS

    QUESTIONS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Key Risks

    Large companies putting off investments due to uncertain economic conditions

    Increasing interest rates

    Declining budget environment for several subsectors

    KEY RISKS

    INTRODUCTION

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    THESIS

    SPECIFICS

    RETURNS

    QUESTIONS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Specifics

    PMI is a good leading indicator of industrial production

    Generation of Free Cash Flow is key

    Airlines: EV/Plane

    EV/Passenger

    Infrastructure: EV/NAV

    P/B

    SPECIFICS

    INTRODUCTION

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    THESIS

    KEY RISKS

    RETURNS

    QUESTIONS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Thesis Example

    Micro

    High return on capital

    Barriers to entry

    High margins relative to industry

    Good management

    THESIS

    INTRODUCTION

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SPECIFICS

    KEY RISKS

    RETURNS

    QUESTIONS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Thesis Example

    Macro Important to understand what is happening at

    the subsector, sector, and national levels

    GDP reports & forecasts: U.S., China, Germany

    Setup What is the current state of your pitch?

    52-week highs/lows

    Short-interest

    THESIS

    INTRODUCTION

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SPECIFICS

    KEY RISKS

    RETURNS

    QUESTIONS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Performance

    RETURNS

    INTRODUCTION

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SPECIFICS

    KEY RISKS

    TOPIC 7

    QUESTIONS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Questions

    Industrials By: Artie Novikov

    March 9, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    NR (Natural Resources)

    TOPIC 1

    TOPIC 2

    TOPIC 3

    TOPIC 5

    TOPIC 4

    TOPIC 6

    David Marrello Karishma Balani

    Bill Cong

    Akshay Gujral

    Darren Viegas

    Egor Gaggin

    Jenny Kletnich

    SECTORS

  • Natural Resources By: David Marrello

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Intro

    Metals and Mining Was once Canadas most important sector

    Major underperformer for 2013 (-24% for the year)

    Key Canadian companies in the sector include Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle, and Potash Corp.

    Success of the industry highly dependent on the prices of underlying precious metals

    Companies have different specialties: as producers or as explorers

    SEC. INTROS

    SEC. THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    INVESTING

    SAMPLE THES.

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Intro

    Energy Includes: Petroleum, Gas, Electrical Power,

    Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables

    Currently Canadas second most important sector

    Also an underperformer for 2013 (8% for the year

    Key Canadian companies in the sector include

    Suncor, CNR, Encana, Talisman, & Imperial Oil

    Success of the industry highly dependent on the prices of underlying commodities

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Themes

    Mining and Metals Shift in mining focus towards developing nations

    The profound impact of new technology (ex. Arctic mining)

    The increased importance of small to medium sized miners

    Energy Increased prominence of renewable technologies and

    decreased reliance on nuclear

    A shift in demand from developed nations to developing nations

    New technologies (deepwater drilling now only 9% but increasing)

    The profound impact of new technology (ex Deepwater drilling)

    US energy independence

    SEC. THEMES

    SEC. INTROS

    KEY DRIVERS

    INVESTING

    SAMPLE THES.

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Key Drivers

    Metals and Mining Prices of Underlying Precious Metals (gold, silver,

    diamonds)

    Production efficiencies of miners

    Regulation (threat of nationalization)

    Ability to raise debt/equity, and cash flow

    Macroeconomic considerations

    Energy Underlying commodity prices

    Government subsidies and regulations

    Global demand and supply outlook

    Mergers and Acquisitions

    KEY DRIVERS

    SEC. INTROS

    SEC. THEMES

    INVESTING

    SAMPLE THES.

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Investing Specifics

    Key Industry Metrics

    Metals and Mining Production/Capacity/Reserves (typically measured in

    weight)

    Cash flow from operations

    EBITDAX

    Net Asset Value Model

    Typified by long lasting, but punctuated cycles

    Energy Production/Capacity/Reserves (typically measured in

    barrels or other volume measure)

    EBITDAX

    Net Asset Value Model

    Dividend yield may be a consideration

    INVESTING

    SEC. INTROS

    SEC. THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SAMPLE THES.

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs Sample Investment Thesis

    1. Larger multi-mineral mining companies are leaving the industry to pursue the opportunities that come with increased demand for other commodities such as steel, iron, copper etc; giving companies such as Dominion Diamond Corporation the opportunity to step in and increase their market share in the diamond industry substantially.

    2. The rough-diamond market is expected to remain balanced from 2013 through 2017. From 2018 onward, as existing mines get depleted and no major new deposits come online, supply is expected to decline, falling behind expected demand growth that will be driven by China, India and the US.

    3. Proved and Probable Recoverable and Attributable Reserves showing signs of growth, especially from 2012 to 2013:expected to grow from 30840 T to 37080 T

    4. Current Ekati mine plan calls for further seven years of production until 2019, however Dominion Diamond Corp has discovered additional resources on Ekati property.

    Dominion Diamonds

    SAMPLE THES.

    SEC. INTROS

    SEC. THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    INVESTING

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Thesis Continued

    The Company is the fourth largest diamond producer by value globally

    Largest publicly listed diamond mining pure play by market capitalization

    Both mines located in the low political risk environment

    In Q3, a 62% increase in carats sold was offset by a 9% decrease in achieved diamond prices

    Rough prices had picked up by about 6% in the first months of the year

    Since then, prices have been flat

    Production at the Misery pit, where stripping is under way, is slated to begin in 2016.

    One-time expenses due to purchase of Ekati resulted in the US$16.3-million net loss

    Excluding such one-time items, the company would have seen $11.1 million, or 13 a share, in profit

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Investment Thesis Continued

    At $14/share, Dominion is undervalued

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Questions

    Natural Resources By: David Marrello

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Healthcare

    TOPIC 1

    TOPIC 2

    TOPIC 3

    TOPIC 5

    TOPIC 4

    TOPIC 6

    Geoff Clark Tianhao Fang

    Wahaaj Ud Din

    Tanveer Randhawa

    Rahul Sharma

    Dmitry Kutsyy

    SECTORS

  • Healthcare By: Geoffrey Clark

    November 24, 2013

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Introduction

    The healthcare sector is made of many different sub-industries Pharmaceuticals and biotechs: Manufacturers

    of drugs

    Device manufacturers: Medical equipment

    Hospitals

    Health-insurers

    INTRODUCTION

    RECENT

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Recent Themes

    Shift towards a single-payer system in the U.S. Obamacare, Medicare, Medicaid

    Healthcare spending growing in relation to GDP Currently at 18% of U.S. GDP and growing at 4%

    annually Sector growing too fast for its own good

    Focus is on cutting costs, companies that can will be successful

    Employers passing burden on employees Rising costs of insurance Increased amount of part-time/contract workers

    RECENT

    THEMES

    INTRODUCTION

    KEY DRIVERS

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Recent Themes

    Changing demographics from aging population People are living longer and suffering from chronic

    diseases for more of their lives

    Environmental factors Air and water pollution are increasing the

    prevalence of conditions like asthma

    Rise of problems like obesity, diabetes and allergies

    Increased prevalence and awareness of mental disabilities

    RECENT

    THEMES

    INTRODUCTION

    KEY DRIVERS

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Key Drivers

    Government budgets For most states, Medicaid is the number one

    cost

    Healthcare spending growing faster than other categories

    KEY DRIVERS

    INTRODUCTION

    RECENT

    THEMES

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Key Drivers

    Management Innovation Company must be able to offer innovative

    solutions to meaningfully impact diseases Either be first in the area or be the best

    Companies must find ways to cut costs Healthcare is too expensive

    Upcoming clinical trials A trial failure or an increase in time to market

    can cripple some companies

    KEY DRIVERS

    INTRODUCTION

    RECENT

    THEMES

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Specifics

    Pharmaceuticals and Biotechs Patent protection: Intellectual property is key

    Difficult to make money when generic brands are available

    Long and expensive process to bring products to market FDA and other regulatory approvals take time

    High R&D budgets Look for companies with consistent success in

    developing innovative products

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

    INTRODUCTION

    RECENT

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Specifics

    Facilities Focus on operating costs and sustained cost

    advantages

    Large and well-funded systems vs. local hospitals Significant M&A activity between the two

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

    INTRODUCTION

    RECENT

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sector Specifics

    Health Insurers and Managed Care Providers: Focus on medical cost ratio, the reverse of

    operating profit Healthcare costs divided by revenue from premiums

    Shows whether the company is skilled in underwriting

    Affected by interest rates Most investment holdings are short-term,

    investment grade fixed income securities

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

    INTRODUCTION

    RECENT

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Sample Investment Thesis

    For company XYZ in healthcare facilities: Leading market share in large and growing

    urban centers

    Economies of scale act as barrier to entry to newcomers and protect against existing local hospitals

    Benefiting from increased M&A activity with a balance sheet that can support it

    SAMPLE

    INVESTMENT

    THESIS

    INTRODUCTION

    RECENT

    THEMES

    KEY DRIVERS

    SECTOR

    SPECIFICS

  • The Association of Canadian Intercollegiate Investment Clubs

    Questions

    ACIIC Analyst Program By: Ivan, Aaquib

    November 24, 2013