ACF PAKISTAN

Disaster Risk Reduction Assessment Report

Of

Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provinces

February 2010

CONTENTS

A. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 3

A.1. Background ................................................................................................................................ 3

A.2. Objectives .................................................................................................................................. 3

B. Methodology and Locations .............................................................................................................. 3

B.1. Crunch Model ............................................................................................................................. 3

B.2. Release Model ............................................................................................................................ 3

B.3. Locations assessed...................................................................................................................... 4

C. Findings ............................................................................................................................................. 5

C.1. Hazard Mapping ......................................................................................................................... 5

C.2. Community Vulnerability ............................................................................................................ 5

C.3. Community Capacity ................................................................................................................... 7

D. Recommendations............................................................................................................................. 8

D.1. Preparedness.............................................................................................................................. 8

D.2. Emergency Response .................................................................................................................. 9

D.3. Capacity Building & Awareness ................................................................................................... 9

D.4. Structural Mitigation .................................................................................................................11

E. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................15

A. INTRODUCTION

A.1. BACKGROUND During the monsoon season of 2010, heavy rainfall in Pakistan caused unprecedented flooding along the Indus River Basin. As a result, there was massive destruction of property, livelihoods and infrastructure as well as loss of life as the floodwaters wiped away entire communities. Prior to the flooding, a joint WASH/FSL rapid needs assessment was carried out in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in March 2010 which pointed out the needs of communities already made vulnerable by the ongoing conflict. After the initial emergency flood response phase, WASH and FSL teams are now reassessing the needs of the communities recovering from the flooding through a WASH/FSL integrated assessment (Jan/Feb. 2011). These results will help integrate Disaster Risk Reduction activities into future projects so that communities are able to minimize hazard risks and absorb the impact of recurrent disaster shocks.

A.2. OBJECTIVES The objectives of the rapid assessment:

• To identify hazards and hazard characteristics • To assess the probability of hazard occurrence • To assess and categorize community vulnerability to identified hazards • To assess and categorize community capacity to mitigate identified hazards • To assess and categorize local governments’ capacities for mitigation and response • To produce scenarios of how various hazards can affect communities as well as WASH and

irrigation services, and how damaged services will impact on society • To propose explicit DRR actions (software and hardware) to improve resilience of

communities as well as WASH and irrigation services to identified hazards • To identify communities as well as WASH and irrigation services or infrastructure that should

be prioritized for increased resilience based on technical and financial feasibility

B. METHODOLOGY AND LOCATIONS

B.1. CRUNCH MODEL This assessment was based on the crunch and release model of disaster theory. The crunch model seeks to shed light on the underlying causes for disasters. This model assesses the internal and/or external pressures placed on communities and how unsafe conditions create a vulnerability gap which develops into a disaster once the hazard is active.

Figure 1. Crunch Model

B.2. RELEASE MODEL The second model utilized is the release model, which is basically the inverse of the crunch model. This model suggests that if risk reduction activities are implemented (prevention, preparedness and mitigation) safe conditions in communities will give them the capacity to manage to minimize their

vulnerability and deal with the underlying causes of disasters. Communities will thus be enabled to absorb shocks in a manner relative to their economic, natural, infrastructure, individual and social assets.

Figure 2. Release Model A major source of information was collected through stakeholder interviews with District Coordinator Officers (DC) in Thatta and Timergara as well as focus group discussions with community members in the communities listed below. In Sindh Province, mixed gender discussions took place and even children joined the community meetings. Due to cultural reasons, mixed gender gathering in KPK Province was not possible and women were not interviewed, hence making men the only source of information for this portion of the assessment. Field visits by the DRR Assessment Manager and WASH/FSL team members were also a major source of information for the assessment. The integrated WASH/FSL assessments of March 2010 and Jan/Feb. 2011 have been used to complement the data. Multiple disaster reports from NGOs, United Nations, local/international media, national government offices and meteorological reports have also been used as additional sources of relevant information. Assessment tools:

• Hazard Assessment: o Hazard mapping o Sample hazard assessment questions

• Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment: o Economic assets: Sample questions and Key Informant Interviews o Natural assets: Sample questions and Asset Ranking o Infrastructure assets: Sample questions and Community Mapping o Individual assets: Sample question and Key Informant interview o Social assets: Sample questions and Community Mapping

B.3. LOCATIONS ASSESSED

Province District Union Council Village Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province Dir Lower Timergara Timergara Dir Lower Adenzai Kotigram Dir Lower Adenzai Chakdara Ramora Dir Lower Adenzai Sharab Kohi Dir Lower Samar Bagh Samar Bagh

Sindh Province Thatta Thatta

Thatta Sujawal Bello Thatta Sujawal Cotalmo

Thatta Mirpur Batoro Mirpur Batoro

C. FINDINGS

C.1. HAZARD MAPPING Although terrain and cultural contexts are different, data results indicate that communities classified flooding to be the deadliest of hazards mostly due to widespread damage and prolonged duration, as was the case of the flood disaster in 2010. Communities in both provinces also listed earthquakes, avalanche, drought, cyclones and tsunami as potential hazards. (SEE ANNEX 1) In Sindh province flooding displaced entire communities for months, as flood waters were slow to recede. Similar flooding in remote villages and urban centers of KPK during the last five years has been devastating; with exceptional levels last summer. Throughout the spring there is a high risk of flooding of rivers and flash floods since most tributaries are fed by snow melt from the mountaintops. Communities along the Jandol River (Samar Bagh – Munda Qila) Swat River (Chakdara) and Panjkora River (Balambat – Timergara) are in high risk flood zones. Even towns like Lal Qila which are situated along small seasonal rivers have flash flood risks.

Community Hazard Mapping (Cotalmo, Sindh) Considering that the 2010 flood catastrophe is still fresh in people’s minds, earthquake hazards must not be neglected. KPK Province is characterized by being situated in a high seismic zone. The mountains in Dir Lower are part of the Hindu Kush range, where many villages are located along steep slopes and rivers flow through the valleys. Even the smallest of tremors can cause landslides and avalanches in the winter months. In Timergara it is common to see homes at risk of collapsing into the river due to poor housing construction and limited level terrain. The growth of urban centers in the mountainous regions will result in high death tolls in the event of a large seismic movement. Droughts have been less frequent in both provinces, yet the impact on livestock and agriculture can be devastating. Heavy deforestation and slow replacement of woodlands has contributed to rapid soil erosion and disturbance of the natural environment.

C.2. COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY During the assessment of communities, 5 assets were considered: Economic, Natural, Infrastructure, Individual and Social assets. (SEE ANNEX 2A) The loss of one asset can trigger the loss of other assets, as in most cases the elements are interconnected, yet all assets tolerate disaster shocks differently. For each asset, the assessment tried to answer these key questions:

• What are the likely impacts of the hazard? • Why does the hazard affect the assets at risk?

• Who is creating the vulnerable conditions? • What are the underlying causes?

For example, wealthier populations in Thatta town have more disposable income which can be used to construct better homes. The less wealthy populations (in floodplains) are most vulnerable because their resilience level is limited to tangible wealth and lack of property (land ownership). Many flood victims claimed that landownership hinders their ability to construct permanent housing structures which could withstand heavy rainfall or floods. In KPK for instance, land and property prices were usually higher in Timergara than in Peshawar. However, after the floods of 2010, land and real estate prices in Timergara plummeted, especially in areas along the riverbanks. Even the few wealthy who invested in real estate suffered considerable losses. Economic asset indicators measure the robustness of livelihoods, entrepreneurial activities and commerce, availability/access to credit and overall savings. Upon the assessment of Sindh Province (Thatta, Bello, Mirupur Bathoro) it was noted that the large towns are thriving with small markets and micro enterprises in the service sector. However, most of the population in the periphery relies on earnings from the informal sector in casual labor and agriculture. There is a similar occurrence in KPK Province (Timergara, Samar Bagh and Chakdara) as communities rely on the service sector for employment. In times of economic downturns, low-income groups are affected the most as their priority is food, basic household items and medical attention, leaving disaster preparation/mitigation as a last priority. In the aftermath of the 2010 flood, aid money was channeled to affected communities through the use of WATAN cards. This is a short term solution to a much larger problem associated with chronic poverty in the areas affected by disasters. Communities complain that top heavy government structures and processes have made it difficult for low-income households to own property or land.

Village member shows WATAN card (Cotalmo, Sindh) Natural assets such as fertile farm lands, water sources, vegetation and livestock are crucial for the overall function of ecosystems. In both Sindh and KPK provinces, the massive floods destabilized the composition of natural assets. Farm lands were inundated and much of the top soil swept by rapid currents. Natural assets were shocked as water sources were contaminated, vegetation destroyed, trees uprooted and livestock lost. As seen in Chakdara (KPK) and Thatta (Sindh), the physical structure of the Indus River and its tributaries was expanded by the floods. If floods become recurrent in coming years, there is a possibility that land shifting will occur, increasing erosion and soil degradation. Rapid growth of urban centers has increased the demand for timber resulting in high deforestation in rural areas. Current practices like overgrazing and deforestation increase the risk of land loss; most people are unaware of the impact of these practices and how low-tech, low-cost solutions may have a positive impact in disaster mitigation. There is a need for more awareness of possible preventative and mitigation measures and support on how to mobilize a community to implement some of these measures. Long term adaptation to climate change is dependent on adoption of new behaviors and practices.

Infrastructure assets are the most costly and are the “first line of protection” against hazards. During the assessment in Sindh province, it was noted that “Protection Bunds” had been breached by flood waters and fluvial systems were not capable of handling the mass volume of water. In Cotalmo village (Sindh) the village was directly affected when the Provincial Government decided to cut sections of the protection bunds in order to release water pressure that otherwise threatened densely populated areas (Thatta). The damages in KPK province were similar, as gabion walls failed to retain the flood waters, destroying bridges and buildings. Road systems serving as evacuation routes were washed out, leaving countless villages disconnected from search and rescue operations. In both provinces, infrastructure such as roads, dams, drinking water systems, irrigation canals, were destroyed or damaged and need to be cleared, repaired or rebuilt.

Indus River dam (Bello, Sindh) Breached protection bund (Mirpur Batoro, Sindh) Individual assets can be measured in the well being of citizens (malnutrition, morbidity and mortality) affected by the floods. In pre-disaster scenarios, communities have limited access to medical attention. In post-disaster scenarios health services can be completely disrupted and brought to a standstill. Living conditions in IDP camps can be unbearable, with open defecation and consumption of flood waters highly prevalent in the initial stages of the disaster. The lack of evacuation and displacement plans for young/old, sick/disabled (less mobile) and migrant (highly mobile) population puts them in a highly vulnerable category altogether. Social assets affect the way in which communities respond to hazards, through religious or cultural perceptions. These social traditions are so deeply rooted that it is common for communities to accept disasters to be normal and unavoidable. In Sindh province, the social caste system has placed enormous pressure on the poor populations, as not enough assistance is given to this group either by the government or civil society. There is a perceived sense of fragmented society, where higher castes compete for resources entitled for the poor. In KPK, an occupational caste system exists, where low skilled laborers (carpenters, hairdressers, potters, cobblers) are socially neglected groups and highly vulnerable to disaster risks. However, in this region there seems to be a more cohesive social fabric, social assistance although not permanent, is available to those with few resources. Armed conflict in this province has also put pressure on a society living in a constant “state of emergency” as the ongoing clashes can escalate at any time. In both provinces the social expectation is that government institutions will assist communities in time of disaster.

C.3. COMMUNITY CAPACITY The capacity assessment tool helps to identify capacities in disaster affected communities and gives recommendations on how to build and strengthen weak prevention and preparedness activities of communities and government institutions. (ANNEX 2B) Many of the economic assets in which communities rely are based on remittances, usually from family members living abroad. This money is either injected for business/commerce activities or used to purchase food or basic living needs. Less fortunate households depend on their livestock, placing the safety of livestock as a priority among the communities interviewed in Sindh and KPK provinces. In KPK province, men (community leaders) have commerce knowledge and

entrepreneurial spirit. During disasters, government institutions and NGOs alleviate pressure by bringing economic aid into communities, in form of food, NFIs or cash. The natural assets in both Sindh and KPK are abundant. Many communities are located along the Indus River, a source of fish and water for many people. In KPK, mountain springs sources are abundant and could potentially serve communities for irrigation and drinking water supplies. Needless to say, protected forests are still visible, making it a priority for communities to continue planting trees to prevent from soil erosion. It has been noted that communities in both provinces are aware of the changing weather patterns in recent years. Infrastructure is generally existent in the locations visited, well built roads, bridges and protection bunds. Public works in the form of schools and hospitals are available in major district centers. There exists a reliable network of telecommunication services, which can help as early warning systems through text messaging. In times of disaster, the mobilization of armed forces is put into place for search and rescue operations, while NGOs attend the displaced in IDP camps. Thatta government officials were able to provide a copy of the district disaster contingency plans. Individuals interviewed showed great resilience and determination to overcome disasters. Many individuals in Sindh province have shown a high motivation to learn about disaster prevention despite of their lack of formal studies. In KPK, communities are raising funds for road construction and creating reconstruction committees. In the greater context of social assets, manpower is an important element. Extended families and social networks provide a safety net for the most vulnerable populations. It is tradition in KPK to exchange/share assets of in the form of cash, property or products. Indigenous knowledge is of high value and should be capitalized when introducing community disaster management activities.

D. RECOMMENDATIONS

D.1. PREPAREDNESS In Sindh and KPK, community disaster management plans do not exist. In Thatta, for example, the Executive District Officer was able to provide a Flood Contingency Plan which is outdated and serves as a symbolic document rather than a functioning tool. Lack of information and ineffective disaster management plans put pressure on communities to rely on “last minute preparation” or evacuation from the hazard zone. Every village where ACF has projects should have a “disaster management committee” composed of both males and females (according to cultural acceptance). These disaster management committees then create disaster contingency plans and carry out disaster simulation exercises in their villages. From a macro-perspective, national early warning systems have failed to function properly. In fact, a significant number of communities in Sindh and KPK do not have such systems in place. Cotalmo community residents in Sindh Province blamed the local government for giving a last minute notice before the protection bund ruptured. While discussing this matter with the Executive District Officer in Thatta, it became apparent that much information sharing had taken place well in advance between government ministries, yet the communities were the last to be informed. Developing institutional alert systems and procedures at the community, taluka, union council and district level are crucial to ensuring that all stakeholders have an active role in disaster management. In case of flooding early warning mechanism will require constant monitoring of weather patterns and “unusual” river flow in designated danger zones. Implementation of an early warning system through radio messages is one form of ensuring that large population areas are informed and instructed in a timely manner. With proper early warning systems disasters can be mitigated and human loss can be minimized. Emergency warning systems are not enough to mitigate disasters; these must be backed up with

harmonized disaster management plans and disaster awareness at different levels of society, where responsibilities and expectations are clearly defined.

D.2. EMERGENCY RESPONSE In emergency situations a quick response is vital. As mentioned above the provincial disaster response capacity during the flood of 2010 was limited by access to remote areas. This shows that pre-positioning of emergency stocks is a vital element in the beginning stages of emergency response. ACF should pre-position NFI and shelter kits in the provincial centers (Thatta & Timergara) which can be immediately dispatched when a disaster is verified and no other actors on ground are able to respond. Winterization kits1 in Upper/Lower Dir and NFI kits in Thatta would allow for emergency aid to reach the vulnerable communities rapidly while avoiding lengthy logistical/procurement procedures. FSL and WASH teams should be ready to effectively deliver aid (cash transfers/water provision/health & hygiene promotion) in displacement camps trough the initial stages of an emergency. A major hindrance in providing effective emergency response is lack of disaster reporting from villages. It was noted that communities do not report localized disasters due to lack of trust in government institutions and knowledge of what assistance is available to them. The lack of disaster reporting by villages is mostly due to the need of communication means and reporting channels. Provincial and District officials should be encouraged to continuously train, support and encourage the communities to report disasters in a timely and accurate manner. The lack of community led disaster response is also characterized by a strong fatalistic attitude (“If it’s God’s will”) towards natural disasters. Without disaster reports NGOs and government institutions cannot track disaster patterns which help in preparing for major catastrophes. Through the creation of a hazard/disaster database, District authorities will be able to create zoning parameters which help address risks in proper time. Historically speaking, a civil defense department has existed since British rule. However, this department was considered weak and ineffective in tackling disasters, which consequently led to the creation of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). In response to the 2005 earthquake, the Pakistani government created the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA). The response capacity, however, has proven to be hampered by poorly trained and equipped volunteers and the lack of leadership from a single line ministry willing to provide adequate funding. PDMA’s role is limited to emergency response rather than to disaster prevention and mitigation. At the community level, ACF would be able to facilitate community workshops explaining the PDMA framework and highlighting the importance of disaster mitigation and preparation at the community level. One of the soft outputs would be to develop community disaster plans for villages affected by recent disasters. Once these community disaster plans are created, they must then be validated by the PDMA and District Coordination departments for agriculture, infrastructure and health. PDMA and line ministries will now be aware of the mitigation and preparation (hard and soft outputs) at the community level in the same way that villages will be conscious of the government’s duties and responsibilities before, during and after disasters.

D.3. CAPACITY BUILDING & AWARENESS ACF should be able to carry out Disaster Awareness workshops in the communities where projects are currently ongoing (WASH/FSL/Nutrition). These workshops should be aimed at grassroots community leadership (Union Councils, Talukas, Villages) but should be followed with institutional capacity building (i.e. PDMA). By putting together a Disaster Management Provincial Workshop, ACF can bring together all relevant stakeholders (government officials, UN agencies, NGO staff) to suggest basic disaster risk reduction concepts and the importance of disaster awareness at the institutional level. One example of topics in these workshops is natural resource management: land protection, terracing and soil stabilization techniques, reforestation training to all men in community on planting

1 NFI Kits include weather proof tents, blankets, coats & rubber boots

trees for slope stabilization and vocational training for appropriate infrastructure planning and construction techniques, motivating communities to form village nurseries to ensure reforestation.

Vulnerable tube well (Timergara, KPK) Unprotected well (Kotigram, KPK) In order to continue building economic resilience, it is recommended that men and women in communities be trained in vocational skills in order to improve livelihoods. Capacity building of men as carpenters in hazard resistant construction technologies should be encouraged in “build back better” reconstruction and rehabilitation initiatives, including cash for work schemes. Women could be trained in sewing, tailoring and handicraft production. As a stimulus to economic activity, financial savings schemes and risk transfer mechanisms could be encouraged in communities. “With little to no access to formal insurance mechanisms for disasters, the poor are forced to self insure, depleting their savings when disaster strikes. Micro-insurance can help to break this cycle by providing low-income households, farmers, and businesses with rapid access to post-disaster liquidity, thus protecting their livelihoods and providing for reconstruction”2. The establishment of micro-finance schemes for small scale entrepreneur and community covers the risk of exposure to natural hazards.

Man putting vocational skills to use (Bello, Sindh) For disaster awareness activities to be successful in communities, a strong Islamic justification for disaster preparedness must be presented, followed by participatory assessment of disaster risks (PADR) training. PADR includes risk analysis and hazard mapping eventually resulting in the creation of disaster management committees. Disaster Risk Reduction messages in schools is a good tool to engage communities and raise awareness of potential hazards. Another capacity building/awareness activity is first aid training for field staff workers and community leaders. This can be outsourced to a medical NGO (MSF in 2 The Role of Risk Transfer and Insurance in Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaption; Commission on Climate Change and Development March 2008

TMG) so at least there is another INGO involved in this initiative. Training in camp set-up, in case IDP camps must be setup if the onset of an emergency occurs. For mass awareness FM radio can also be used in KPK and Sindh as there is a considerable audience in radio media.

D.4. STRUCTURAL MITIGATION For FSL activities, small scale and basic infrastructure such as farm to market roads, bridges, dams and irrigation channels would need to be constructed or in many cases cleared, repaired, rebuilt or protected. In KPK there are areas in need for irrigation systems because much of the cultivated land is rain-fed, which makes harvest yields heavily dependent on irregular precipitation and the quality of seed sown. It was mentioned that irrigation schemes are not available because of the considerable distance of the water sources. Setting up nurseries, planting vegetable gardens and fruit trees is not possible because of the lack of access to water. Along riverside communities, however, the situation is different in that floods wipe out fertile soil and erosion is a continuous problem. Strengthening of embankments and dykes in the coastal areas as well as river bank stabilization should be a priority. Culverts and irrigation channels are often blocked and/or destroyed due the limited capacity of water that can be handled. Homes have been either completely destroyed or partially damaged and improved building techniques are needed (i.e. raised foundations and drainage around homes/property). Mitigation projects should focus on the continued support of Local Reconstruction Committees in charge of community infrastructure and rehabilitation initiatives. Giving support to the Local Reconstruction Committees will empower communities through ownership of disaster mitigation projects. ACF should also capitalize on the utilization of indigenous knowledge in structural design, location of construction and land management practices.

Makeshift bridge (Timergara, KPK) Farm to Market road (Kotigram, KPK)

Gabion wall construction (Chakdara Ramora, KPK) Sample raised water point (Sri Lanka) Mainstreaming DRR into WASH is mainly about adapting existing projects (hard and soft outputs) to the changing natural environment. In adapting the DRR concept to WASH projects it is feasible to take advantage of existing water point designs (gravity flow and tube wells) and improve such

designs to minimize the direct impact of hazards. Protection boxes are already constructed by ACF WASH teams in KPK province. Building gabion walls around the protection box will divert the full impact of run-off water from destroying the protection box. Protecting water pipes from falling boulders will avoid costly repairs or disruption of services for extended periods of time. Existing water points should be constantly monitored and repaired if pipes are leaking or in need of replacement. By modifying the design of gravity flow schemes and incorporating reinforced concrete pillars to hold pipes in place will prevent from potential flood water washing away weak sections of pipeline. In order to measure the rise of floodwaters casual workers can be hired to build water gauges (on-site and low-cost concrete and steel fabrications), alternatively, prefabricated water gauges can be ordered and install on selected hazard zones identified by the community Disaster Management Committees.

Boulders falling on water scheme (Somarbagh, KPK) Water scheme in need of repair (Somarbagh, KPK)

A list of relevant DRR projects that could be considered appropriate within the assessed areas includes:

• Construction of new water points • Rehabilitation/protection of existing water points • Construction of hazard resistant latrines in school and rural health centres • Protection of existing latrines • Installation of water gauges in flood zones and riverbanks • Construction and rehabilitation of sewage systems • Construction/rehabilitation of irrigation/drainage channels • Strengthening of embankments and dykes in the coastal areas as well as river bank

stabilization • Construction/installation of gabion protection walls • Temporary bridges as escape routes (or access routes) to areas vulnerable to flooding • Flood proofing of community shelters • Construction of rural community emergency shelters • Construction of protected grain storage facilities and livestock shelter • Construction/rehabilitation of farm to market roads • Setting up village Nurseries • Promoting Bio-agriculture, contour farming, tree planting, crop diversification, soil

management and grazing management The table below provides a non exhaustive list of potential DRR activities in the specific union councils visited as part of this evaluation. The mitigation infrastructure proposed remain in line with ACF’s core competencies, but PADR assessments could lead to other activities being considered.

List of Potential Project Sites and Activities in KPK

Province UC/Tehsil Village Hard Output Soft Output Program Sector

KPK U.C. Asbanr Selected by U.C PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Ouch Selected by U.C PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Asbanr Selected by U.C PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Khadagzai Selected by U.C

PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Tazagram Selected by U.C

PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Chakdara Selected by U.C

PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Khanpur Selected by U.C PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Kumbar Selected by U.C PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Badwan Selected by U.C PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Kashmir Selected by U.C PADR, Community Disaster Management Plan, Capacity Building and Awareness

FSL/WASH

Province UC/Tehsil Village Hard Output Soft Output Program Sector

KPK U.C. Asbanr Asbanr Construction/Rehabilitation of

protective dyke FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Asbanr Khanpur Construction/Rehabilitation of protective dyke FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Ouch Ouch Construction/Rehabilitation of protective dyke FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Asbanr Ramora Dara Construction/Rehabilitation of protective dyke FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Khadagzai Khadagzai Construction/Rehabilitation of

protective dyke FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Asbanr Badwan Construction/Rehabilitation of protective dyke FSL/WASH

KPK U.C. Asbanr Shaban Construction of irrigation channels FSL KPK U.C.Tazagram Kithiyari Construction of irrigation channels FSL

KPK U.C. Tazagram Tazagram Construction of irrigation channels FSL

KPK U.C. Tazagram Shawa Construction of irrigation channels FSL

KPK U.C. Ouch Ouch Rehabilitation of drinking water supply schemes FSL

KPK U.C. Tazagram Shawa Rehabilitation of drinking water

supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Chakdara Ramora Rehabilitation of drinking water

supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Chakdara Chakdara Rehabilitation of drinking water

supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Chakdara Adam Dherai Rehabilitation of drinking water

supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Khanpur Khanpur Rehabilitation of drinking water supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Khadagzai Kamala Rehabilitation of drinking water

supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Kumbar Kaskay Kumbar Rehabilitation of drinking water supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Khampur Warghar Rehabilitation of drinking water supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Ouch Gulshamabad Ouch

Rehabilitation of drinking water supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Asbanr Asbanr Rehabilitation of drinking water supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Asbanr Khawas Asbanr Rehabilitation of drinking water supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Asbanr Bambolai Rehabilitation of drinking water supply schemes WASH

KPK U.C. Chakdara Chakdara Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Khadagzai Khadagzai Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Khadagzai Brhangola Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Badwan Badwan Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Tazagram Shawa Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Kithiyari Kithiyari Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Tazagram Tazagram Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Ouch Ouch Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

Province UC/Tehsil Village Hard Output Soft Output Program Sector

KPK U.C. Ouch Kotigram Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Chakdara Dara Ramora Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Asbanr Kamala Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Asbanr Asbanr Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Asbanr Bambolai Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Asbanr Dharai Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Kashmir Kashmir Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Asbanr Gali Bagh Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Asbanr Abi Shah Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Tazagram Tindodog Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Khanpur Tiknai Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Khanpur Khanpur Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

KPK U.C. Chakdara Amirabad Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Chakdara Chatpat Shamlai Construction/Rehabilitation of

roads FSL

KPK U.C. Badwan Badwan Construction/Rehabilitation of roads FSL

E. CONCLUSION

Many districts of Sindh & Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces are amongst the most disaster prone districts in Pakistan. There is considerable historical evidence that suggests that the climatic changes will continue to create disorder in previously predictable weather patterns. These communities will continue to suffer from seasonal floods if the necessary mitigation mechanisms are not put into place. It is likely that poverty stricken communities will remain in a cyclical pattern of gain and loss instead of moving faster through the disaster cycle into the mitigation and preparedness stage. According to the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, it is estimated that more than 3.8 million people were directly affected by the great flood of 2010. Agricultural assets and infrastructure were heavily damaged, standing crops lost and water supply infrastructure badly damaged or completely destroyed. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial minister of information, Mian Iftikhar Hussain, said "the infrastructure of this province was already destroyed by conflict. Whatever was left was finished off by these floods." The coming months of early 2011 will not be any different, as recovering communities are highly vulnerable to a new disaster shock. Snow melt, avalanches, seasonal rains and landslides are major hazards and NGO’s and government authorities must invest more financial and human resources to prevention activities. Communities, NGOs and all levels of government institutions must be prepared to mitigate disasters and respond in a rapid yet effective manner.

ANNEX 1.

Hazard Mapping Sindh & KPK

Province Hazard Risk Classification Frequency Speed Location Duration Severity Warning

System

Sindh Flooding High/Very High Risk 1-10 years Variable Onset

1-72 hours Widespread impact to low areas and communities near

protection bunds 6-8 weeks Acute No Warning

System

KPK Flooding High/Very High

Risk 1-10 years Variable Onset

1-72 hours Widespread impact to riversides and confluence areas 4-6 weeks Acute No Warning

System

Sindh Earthquake Moderate Risk 10-20 years Immediate Onset Localized to urban areas Minutes Acute National

Warning System

KPK Earthquake High/Very High Risk 1-10 years Immediate Onset Widespread to urban and rural areas Minutes Acute National Warning

System

Sindh Drought Moderate/High

Risk 10-20 years Variable Onset

1-30 days Localized impact to areas away from rivers or natural

water springs 2-3

months Acute Predictable

KPK Drought Low Risk 20-30 years Variable Onset 1-30 days

Localized impact to areas away from rivers or natural water springs

2-3 months

Acute Predictable

Sindh Landslide N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

KPK Landslide High/Very High

Risk 1-10 years Variable Onset

1-24 hours Localized impact to areas of high erosion and excessive

water accumulation Hours/Day

s Moderate N/A

Sindh Avalanche N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

KPK Avalanche High/Very High Risk 1-10 years Immediate Onset Localized impact to areas of high snow accumulation Minutes Moderate N/A

Sindh Cyclone/Tropical

Storm High/Very High

Risk 1-10 years Variable Onset

1-90 days Widespread impact to low areas and communities near

protection bands 1-3

Months Acute Predictable

KPK Cyclone/Tropical

Storm N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Sindh Tsunami Low/Moderate

Risk N/A Variable Onset

1-72 hours Localized impact to low coastal areas Minutes Moderate N/A

KPK Tsunami N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

ANNEX 2.

Vulnerability Assessment Sindh & KPK

Elements at Risk Vulnerable Conditions Pressures Underlying Causes

Economic Assets

• Loss of harvest • Loss of livestock • Loss of personal assets

• Decline in Soil Fertility • High cost of agricultural supplies • Limited high-land grazing grounds • Extreme poverty • Indebtedness

• National Agriculture policies • Provincial Government policies • National Development policies

• Lack of community agricultural planning

• Lack of effective social security schemes

• Top heavy government structures and processes

• Low literacy and education • Lack of vocational skills

Natural Assets

• Physical structure of Indus river and tributaries expanded

• Environmental degradation including pollution and deforestation

• Unreliable containment infrastructure • Widespread soil erosion

• National Resource Management Policies • National Disaster Management mitigation

policies and budget

• Lack of community natural resource management

Constructed Assets

• Shallow wells contaminated • Irrigation channels damaged/destroyed • Fluvial systems and sewage collection

systems obstructed • Road Bridges Collapsed • Roads washed away

• Limited protected water sources • Faulty protection bands along Indus

river and tributaries • Limited Knowledge of natural resource

management • Poor/limited infrastructure planning

• National and Provincial Disaster Management Policies

• Lack of community Infrastructure initiatives

Individual Assets

• Increased malnutrition • Increased morbidity • Increased mortality

• High cost of food • High cost of medical attention

Social Assets

• Increased conflict • Disruption to education

• Competition for resources • Cost of education

• Social traditions/expectations • Large family size • Gender inequalities • Weak civil society

ANNEX 3.

Capacity Assessment Sindh & KPK

Protected Elements Safe Conditions Pressure Releases Positive Underlying Causes

Economic Assets

• In Sindh and KPK, remittances from outside relatives are an option for a few families

• In KPK, some types of livestock are not badly affected because of higher ground grazing

• Strong local leadership in communities

• Entrepreneurial spirit among communities

• NGOs to provide post-disaster relief • Promote diversity of crops and livestock • Promote savings schemes

• Men capable in vocational skills • Strong culture of community

togetherness • Traditional (indigenous) knowledge

Natural Assets

• Both provinces have an abundance of fish as food supply

• In KPK, mountain spring sources are abundant

• Untouched and protected areas

• Capacity building activities by grass root NGOs and INGO’s in natural resource management

• Promote fish farming • Apply indigenous knowledge to terracing and

land rotation

• Communities have basic awareness of changing weather patterns

• Acknowledgment that weather related disasters will continue

Constructed Assets

• Existing infrastructure (roads, bridges, protection bands)

• Reliable telecommunication services • Makeshift camps for IDPs • Village hospitals are available • Primary/Secondary schools

• Large government investment in building basic infrastructure

• Mobilization of armed forces in time of disaster

• Equip hospitals with basic emergency supplies

• Promote “build back better” principles

• Men capable in vocational skills

Individual Assets

• Skills • Knowledge • High resiliance and determination

• High Motivation to Learn • Ability to survive with minimal food • Traditional farming skills • Higher literacy of of younger

population

• Capacity building activities by grass root NGOs and INGO’s in disaster risk redcuction activities

• Construction of Community Based mitigation structures

Social Assets

• Manpower (Human Resources) • Extended families and social networks • Traditional knowledge

• Tradition of exchanging/sharing assets/products

• Promote conflict resolution (KPK)

ANNEX 4.

SIMPLIFIED CAUSE MAP OF DISASTERS