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Academic Registrars’ Council 18 November 2013 Mary Curnock Cook Chief Executive
The annual ‘scramble’ (1)
26/11/2013 At the heart of connecting people to higher education
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The annual ‘scramble’ (2)
26/11/2013 At the heart of connecting people to higher education
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English 18 year old application rate
March 24 deadline: 2004 - 2013
18 year olds set to fall another 10% or so
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2012
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vs. 2013
Fewer offers to fewer applicants
More offers to slightly more applicants 19 year olds saved the day
Deficit from fall in 2011 deferrals Bonus +10K from 2012 deferral recovery
Tougher A level marking
Tougher A level marking Grade inflation on BTECs
Flat accept rate c. 2 ppt rise in accept rate
50K fewer starts 2013 entry rate back to 2011 levels
ABB+ 6% up (26% from BTECs) Non ABB 12% up
Apply and achieve AAB+ against GCSE model
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Proportion of HEIs back to 2011 level of accepts Day 28 after A level results: UK & EU accepts by entry year
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Proportion of HEIs back to 2011 level of accepts Day 28 after A level results: UK & EU accepts by entry year
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Proportion of HEIs back to 2011 level of accepts Split by HEI Tariff Group Day 28 after A level results: UK & EU accepts by entry year
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Applicants, Accepts and Acceptance Rates Day 28 after A level results 2009 - 2013: HEI Tariff Group. All dom.
52%
36% 40%
0%
100%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
09 10 11 12 13 09 10 11 12 13 09 10 11 12 13
Lower Tariff Medium Tariff Higher Tariff
Applicants Accepts Acceptance rate
NOTE: Applicants are those with at least one choice to an HEI in the Tariff Group
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Main scheme choices – relative to 2011 Day 28 after A level results: By HEI Tariff Group. All domiciles
90%
95%
102%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lower
Medium
Higher
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Accepted applicants – relative to 2011 Day 28 after A level results: By HEI Tariff Group. All domiciles
93%
101%
109%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lower
Medium
Higher
Higher Tariff HEIs – Offers made to UK/EU applicants
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HEI liability: Entry year basis 12/13 & 13/14
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
Medium Tariff HEIs – Offers made to UK/EU applicants
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HEI liability: Entry year basis 12/13 & 13/14
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
Lower Tariff HEIs – Offers made to UK/EU applicants
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HEI liability: Entry year basis 12/13 & 13/14
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
Difference for social groups reducing
Entry rate: 2011 2012 2013
Most vs. least advantaged 3.2x 3.0x 2.8x
Most vs. least advantaged Higher Tariff HEIs
8.3x 8.1x 7.6x
FSM vs. Non FSM Russell Group HEIs
5.8x 5.2x 4.9x
Day 28 after A level results: English 18 year olds
Proportion of UK 17-19 accepts with A levels by HEI tariff group
78%
74%
71%
84% 84% 83%
80%
76%
73%
70%
66%
61%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Overall
Higher Tariff HEIs
Middle Tariff HEIs
Lower Tariff HEIs
From DFE consultation on VQs - 2013
“.....the proportion of students entered for purely academic qualifications has been in steady decline in recent years – from 70% in 2008 to 51% in 2012.”
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Percentage of English 19 year olds holding Level 3
A levels
Vocational
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
DfE data 2004 – 2012
DfE data 2008 – 2012, extrapolated to 2017 shown as proportion of 2012 value
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19 year olds holding Level 3
A levels
Vocational
A levels + Voc.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150P
rop
ort
ion
of
20
12
val
ue
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Percentage of English 19 year olds holding Level 3
A levels
Vocational
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
DfE data 2004 – 2012
English 18 year olds: Application rates for POLAR2 Q1 and Q5
36%
53%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
14%
71%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
.... Non ABB
Proportion of ABB+ holding BTECs and A levels by POLAR2
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
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Day 28 after A level results: UK accepts aged 19 & under
Least Advantaged (Q1&2) Most Advantaged (Q3-5)
BTEC applicants as a proportion of those holding 3+ A levels
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Independent Schools, 1.1%
Non-Independent
Schools, 37.9%
Quintile 1, 81.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Day 28 after A level results: UK dom aged 19 & under
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
0 20 40 60 80 100
Q5
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
POLAR2: Number of BTEC ABB+ for every 100 A level ABB+ Day 28 after A level results: English 18 year olds
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UK 18 year old entry rate to Higher Tariff HEIs by qualification held Day 28 after A level results
How does this relate to ‘fair access’
ABB+ population split by POLAR2
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Day 28 after A level results: UK accepts aged 19 & under overall
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
BTEC Accepts as proportion of A level Accepts - 2013
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
Day 28 after A level results: UK 18 year olds
BTEC Accepts as proportion of A level Accepts – 2013 Q1
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
Day 28 after A level results: UK 18 year olds
2013 Accepts split by BTEC subject & Higher Tariff HEIs Day 28 after A level results : UK dom (excl. Scot.) accepts with validated BTEC results
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Business & Services
Sport
Health, Social & Early Years Care
Art & Design
IT
Applied Science
Multiple BTEC subjects
Media
Performing Arts
Music
Engineering & Construction
Public & Uniformed Services
Travel, Tourism & Hospitality
Land-based & Environment
Lower & Middle
Higher
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
Age: BTEC Accepts as a proportion of A Level Accepts Day 28 after A level results: UK (excl. Scot.) age 18 and over
Lowest demand from White group
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
March 24 deadline: Application rates - English 18 year olds by Ethnicity
Application rate for men far behind women… March 24 Deadline: Cohort demand for HE by age 19 split by sex (England)
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
…and is growing as background shrinks March 24 Deadline: English 18 year old application rates=100
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
Difference by sex as large as background? Extrapolation of English 18 year old application rates=100
At the heart of connecting people to higher education
UK 18 year old application rates by subject
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Proportional changes from 2010 to 2013: 24 March deadline
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Male Non STEM
Male STEM
Female Non STEM
Female STEM
UK accepts by sex and subject type End of cycle position: 2003 - 2012
