A Six Sigma Based Risk Management Framework for Handling Undesired Effects Associated With Delays in Project Completion

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International Journal of Lean Six SigmaA Six Sigma based risk management framework for handling undesired effects

associated with delays in project completionMuhammad Usman Tariq

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A Six Sigma based riskmanagement framework

for handling undesired effectsassociated with delays in

project completionMuhammad Usman Tariq

Training and Consultancy, Quality Lead Global Consultants,Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a risk management framework, combined withSix Sigma tool and techniques, to help handle the undesired effects that can occur during the projectexecution. There exist various risk management methodologies but none of them provide an efficientframework and tools to handle undesired effects. In this paper, the goal is to assist practitioners inmanagement of risks.

Design/methodology/approach The author defines a new risk management framework on thebasis of critical review of previous research applied in the industry related to different manufacturing,construction, HR, Marketing, IT and other domains. The strengths and weaknesses of these methodshave been compared through empirical analysis based on real-life case studies.

Findings An enhanced framework is developed for handling, management and analysis of riskassociated with the projects. An extended model is presented by combining the previous riskmanagement methodologies with Six Sigma methodologies, in order to achieve both improvement andminimization of risks simultaneously. The risk management framework defined in projectmanagement lacks compatibility and enhancement with the handling in real-time projects. Bycombining a number of methodologies, after critical study of related frameworks, it has been possibleto devise a framework which has proved to be beneficial.

Research limitations/implications The model defined in the paper is based on implementation andapprovals from the management and takes time for implementation of Six Sigma. Currently the enhancedmodel is implemented in a single process in a real-time industry to validate the model. A through study andknowledge of processes with data is required in order to implement the model.

Social implications The proposed model achieves higher organizational performance bymotivation and training of its employees handling large-scale projects. This has increased theknowledge of persons by minimizing the barrier to change management; hence, achievingorganizational excellence and project management with ease.

Originality/value The methodology will help organizations, especially in the manufacturingindustry, to minimize the risks in both pre-execution and post-execution of projects. It enables overall

improvement of organization with total product management, root cause analysis, projectmanagement knowledge areas and combination of Six Sigma tools. It also makes the knowledgemanagement concept possible within the framework, to maintain the flow of knowledge throughoutthe organization. It has decreased dependency on a single person and promotes team managementconcepts with shared work values.

KeywordsManufacturing industries, Project management, Risk management, Six Sigma,Quality control, Process improvement

Paper typeResearch paper

The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at

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International Journal of Lean Six

Sigma

Vol. 4 No. 3, 2013

pp. 265-279

q Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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DOI 10.1108/IJLSS-05-2013-0028

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1. IntroductionProcess quality is the important factor in a project that makes it successful. Processquality improvement is used to improve the quality of processes to minimize thenumber of defects in a process.

Six Sigma was initially introduced as a group of methodologies for improvingindustrial manufacturing process and minimizing the defects in production by Bill Smithat Motorola. Six Sigma methodologies expanded its horizon to a number of businessand organizational process. A large number of companies adopted it to maximizetheir revenues and improvement of business and manufacturing processes. It basicallyinvolves statistical tools to improve the productivity processes. (De Feoand Barnard, 2005). It is a customer focused approach aiming at performance gain inproject methodology perspective. Many top most companies implemented Six Sigmamethodologies to gain excellence.Fortune 500companies have implemented Six Sigmamethodologies to maximize their revenues (De Feo and Barnard, 2005). Six Sigma isbased on two basic methodologies termed as DMAIC and DMADV. Sigma (s) is termedstatistical unit of measure that is used for calculating process capability. It is correlated

with the defects per unit or parts per million or probability of error in the process orproduct (Alhawariet al., 2008; De Feo and Barnard, 2005).

The basic DMAIC approach is used for the processes which are already defined andneed improvement in process. Whereas, DMADV is used for the new businessprocesses which do not exist currently in the company or production scale.

1.1 Research motivationSix Sigma is the specialized methodology which has tools and techniques which are notavailable in other management approaches. That makes it unique but it lacks the properrisk management framework for handling the risks. It is purely based on one root causeanalysis technique that has very limited scope only to a single business process. Risk

management is the core requirement of industry and projects to avoid the cost overrunand schedule crashes. Our study attempts to propose a extended risk managementframework embedded with Six Sigma methodologies to provide solution to real-timerisks associated with delays in completion of project. This study is validatedthrough implementation in real-time environment. The framework is developed withreference to improve the quality of products and improvement in business processes.

1.2 Organization of the paperThis paper consists or six sections. Section 1 introduces Six Sigma methodologies.Section 2 provides theory and hypothesis formulation. The proposed framework isoutlined in Section 3. A case study is undertaken and implemented to test the validityof the framework in Section 4. Section 5 contains the detailed results of implementation.

Some future horizons and conclusion is derived in Section 6.

2. Theory and hypothesis2.1 Risk management frameworksWe have built a framework based on different models of using the project managementtechniques, risk management core values and process quality improvementmethodologies. A comparison is drawn against the core concepts related to tools usedin risk management and techniques particularly. Six Sigma is defined in a numerous

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ways in term of improvement program, error probability, and production scaleprocess. It is purely an industrial implementation technique based on statistical tools.It is very hard to find an industry that shares the implementation knowledge publicallyon Six Sigma due to policies and cost incurred for improvement (Zhang et al., 2009).

The Six Sigma basic foundations suggest that it can be used for business processimprovement, organizational improvement, multi product companies and many more.(Wang, 2008). Most of the research conducted focuses on criticizing the currentapproaches but none of them provides the solution framework. (Hsiehet al., 2007) usedcombination of IT with statistics and merged into detailed framework known asquality function deployment (QFD). (Wang et al., 2010) elaborates that it increases theefficiency of project in terms of cost and time that are important factors for completionof project.

Events are basic part of the project and are divided into three distinct categories.These categories are reopening, fine tuning and revision (Soderholm, 2008) discussesthe methodology to deal with the uncertain risks that can occur during the projectexecution. A detailed comparison shows that PMBOK and TPRM risk managementmethodology lacks of response technique (Seyedhoseini and Hatefi, 2009).

The project selection is critical process and it must be ensured that it is successful.The concept of management commitment is far behind as it alone not ensures thesuccess of Six Sigma projects without support of good project communicationframeworks (Sharma and Chetiya, 2010). The successful implementation of Six Sigmaprojects includes management commitment, project selection and control skills (Ray andDas, 2010). The next step is identification of tools and techniques required in order tomanage the project. In current critical business environment a single methodology is notenough to ensure the successful project execution. Some of the embedded tools can bedrawing if SIPOC-R diagram and based on customer requirement, collection of cycletime, PT, inventory, manpower and rework quota of sub processes (Sarkaret al., 2011).

The ever changing business environments have also forced the organizations tooutsource their business needs as well as departments. A practitioner must spend workto collect data related to the project before the implementation and improvement ofprocesses. A sufficient knowledge is required about the process in order to manage theoccurring risks (Duarteet al., 2012). The provision and implementation of tools is onlypossible through training the project managers according to the required skills andknowledge. Practitioners make only an implicit connection between the businessstrategy and project selection that leads to failure of projects. Strong analysis is requiredbefore the project initiation to minimize the risks that can occur during the projectsexecution (Kornfeld and Kara, 2013; Sharma and Chetiya, 2010).

Software projects are difficult to handle as every product has new set of attributesand require prior research. It may carry high level unseen risk factors that can crash

the project. 90 percent of the software projects crash due to lack of proper risk analysis.A number of risks are identified prior to the initiation of project but still the probabilityof failure remains at high level (Wanget al., 2010) focus on applying Balance Scorecardto measure the efficiency of R&D organizations in correlation with business tactics,policy, vision and mission (Alhawari et al., 2008). Basic purpose of risk analysis is toidentify the risk prior to the start of the project. It focuses on minimizing the effects forrisks to complete the project successfully (Staveren, 2007) used advance methodologiesto expand the concept of risk analysis technique by applying fault tree analysis (FTA)

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and failure mode effect and criticality analysis (FMECA). Both techniques deal withfailure probability and impact of defects on the project:

H1. The negative effect of inflation on project performance is enhanced in absence

of proper risk management framework.Continuous supply of material and services, preferably at the estimated cost,is imperative for smooth execution of a project. Inflation is termed as change in the costof items, resources and services (Chan et al., 2004; Creswell, 2008; Drouin et al., 2009).Increase in the cost of commodities and services reduces the purchasing power (Olivier,2000; Baloi and Price, 2003) and it is ordinarily termed as a loss of real-value inexchange and unit of account in the economy (Olivier, 2000). The inflation rate isgreatly influenced by the interest rate set by the central or reserve bank of state,foreign reserves, trade deficit and other market forces (Shane et al., 2009; Kuen et al.,2009). The inflation rate and consumer price index are used as measures to reflect pricehike (Roe and Siegel, 2011; Sadeh et al., 2000). The central bank and the open marketcontrol size of the money supply in the market (Olivier, 2000; Deng and Ma, 2008).This study ascertains that a proper policy for tackling the inflation effects needs tobe an integral part of the project planning and budget estimates as well as it shouldbe reviewed at least on quarterly basis to analyze and control the adverse effectsof inflation:

H2. The negative effect on project performance is enhanced in absence of propercommunication framework.

A common problem in project delay is inadequate communication among the keystakeholders can lead to disputes and high cost issues (Gemundenet al., 2005; Roe andSiegel, 2011). The management commitment and its active involvement in the projectare mandatory for project success (Kuen et al., 2009; Nitithamyong and Tan, 2007;

Pinto and Slevin, 1988; Sharma and Chetiya, 2010; Sarkaret al., 2011). Inadequate andirregular communication can crash the whole project timeline (Wang, 2008; Zhang et al.,2009; Jeffery et al., 2002; Kerzner, 2009). Hence, proper communication planning for aproject is required and channels of communication need to be defined appropriately toeffectively control flow the communication.

There should be periodic project review meetings particularly for the criticalprojects and set of best practices and industry standards must be followed to ensuretimely completion of the project. For this purpose, a proper hierarchy for organizationcommunication flow must be defined (Chan and Chan, 2004; Park et al., 2007;Shelbourn et al., 2007), so that everyone is aware of the communication model. Thebasic defect in any model is caused by an inefficient process (Nitithamyong and Tan,2007; Dvir, 2005), and it should be improved to provide pertinent communication:

H3. Insufficient resources and limited accessibility have significant relationshipwith the delays in project completion.

A project being a temporary endeavor involves specific amount of resources(Nitithamyong and Tan, 2007; OSullivan and Sheffrin, 2003) to be utilized to completethe specific project requirements and to ensure that project is executed withoutinterruption. However, proper utilization of the resources at the required phase andtime is mandatory as improper allocation of resources can lead to budget starvation

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(Roe and Siegel, 2011; Toor and Ogunlana, 2008; Van Rijckeghem and Weder, 2009)and ultimately crashing the project. The next phase after the resource allocation is togrant access to the resources to the concerned staff for proper utilization (Tarriconeand Luca, 2002; Taylor, 2008), because it has been observed that many projects do

have ample amount of resources but are not properly utilized due to limited access. Theresources can be in any form such as goods, inventory, consultancies and manpower(Morichi et al., 2005; Nitithamyong and Tan, 2007; Wixom and Watson, 2001;Sarkar et al., 2011; Duarteet al., 2012). This research on the basis of reviewing severalconstruction industry projects perceives that timely availability of resources is themost important factor that makes a project successful within given time frame. But,management should take efficient measures to remove all types of barriers to ensuretimely access to the resources as well as introducing reserves as backups:

H4. Lack of knowledge and unfamiliarity with project processes has significantrelationship with the delays in the project completion.

The major issues that cause projects to fail or delay to crucial extent is unfamiliarity tothe process and the whole project. This happens by assigning personnels that are notaware of the project. Lack of expertise, lack of judgment, lack of training, lack of topmanagement (Kuen et al., 2009; Jeffery et al., 2002; Hoang and Rothaermel, 2010; Sharmaand Chetiya, 2010) and many other factors that are co related with each other. This singlefactor can crash the project before the starting of the project. Mostly companies arebankrupted because of unfamiliarity of what is the project and what is the purpose.Missing proper vision, mission, goals, and objectives (Isik et al., 2009; Dvir, 2005;Blackstone et al., 2009) summed up as feasibility study that causes the delay in theproject.

The concept of training is very common in current market (Nitithamyong and Tan,2007; Sadeh et al., 2000; Morichi et al., 2005), and it can help to lower the risk of

unfamiliarity. The team must be able to understand and covey the projectrequirements to all the other team members. Effective communication can be done onlywhen effective knowledge is available. Mostly the concept float within the organizationis based on experimental assessments of different team members (Naveh, 2007; Pintoand Pinto, 1991; Parket al., 2007) and combining them to make a expert team. Differenttype of expertise (Park et al., 2007; Tarricone and Luca, 2002) is needed for differentkinds of projects and top management must be aware of these issues during theallocation of team members.

2.2 EquationDependent variable:

. Delay in the completion of the project (DP).

. Effect on project performance (EP).

Independent variables:

. Inflation factors (IF).

. Improper communication with the management (IC).

. Insufficient resources and limited accessibility (IL).

. Lack of knowledge and unfamiliarity with project processes (LU).

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3. Proposed frameworkAs described in our previous sections, risk management is the core requirement ofindustrial and business processes. In this study, we have taken initiative to proposeand extended framework for risk management. The proposed framework is designed

with particular steps that can be implemented in IT/software projects. But it has agreater scope in industrial production and business processes for quality enhancement.The proposed framework is divided in two phases.

3.1 Pre-execution phaseIn our proposed framework, a trained risk management and controlling team isrequired to initiate the project. The team is selected on the basis of merit and must havethe required qualification and knowledge to handle the risks and control the projectduring the execution. The next process after assigning the team to the project will beidentifying the risks by doing a proper analysis of the requirements and specificationsof the project. The risk identified will be prioritized by developing risk impact matrixor advance Six Sigma methodology. The classification of risk is also based on theimpact level of the risk. Then the root cause analysis of each identified risk is done tofind the basic solution that can be implemented. The solution is tested by measuringthe process capability of the process to check current level of efficiency. Improvementmethodology is applied in case of lack of required efficiency level. The last process willbe prioritizing and implementing the extracted solutions according to the efficiencylevel of the process. The risk management team will monitor and control the processthroughout the life cycle of project. The activities sequence is shown in Figure 1.

3.2 Post-execution phaseIn our suggested framework, this phase will be used for the project and processes whererisks have been already identified of occurred. This deals with mechanism for providing

real-time solutions during the execution of the project. The risks will be directlyclassified and prioritized and RCA will done with measuring the process capability.It has fast paced approach and also uses the expert judgment and knowledge base oforganization to provide rapid solutions. The activities to be carried out are shown inFigure 2.

The trained risk management team needs to have certain specialized training andcertifications to handle the process efficiently which would be the basic requirements tobe a part of the team. Team must be selected on the basis of merit and experience and

Figure 1.Pre-execution phaseprocesses

Figure 2.Post-execution phaseprocesses

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must train the staff before assigning them responsibilities to handle such processes.There can be other combinations required according to the domain and specific typeof a field, e.g. in case of information technology field, ITIL and CCNA, etc. certificationsare offered. It is dependent on the research of the organization to make an expert and

capable team.In our extended framework of risk identification, the process will consist of risk

according to the domains that are involved in the process and organization.Each domain will be having a different set of risks that must be categorized anddivided according to the domain. Also there will be a different solution for every riskand every domain and it is recommended that previous domain solutions must notbe used for any other domain. There are many different tools available in for riskidentificaiton. It depends on the domain and process to have the best tool selected forthe process. That tool will provide the required solution. The selection of tool isdependent on the expert judgement of expert trained team. Classification andprioritization of risks is important for applying the right solution at the right time. Theorganizational risks are classified into many factors according to the environment and

structure. The right classification will make the solution effective. After classificationrisks will be prioritized to identify the importance of the risks. The implementation ofthe solution at right time is very important for making it effective. A risk prioritizationmatrix can be created to provide the overview of the solution with respect to the risksidentified. It is also important for the uncertain risks that are not always identifiable(Figure 3).

4. Case study and implementationOn the basis of above given hypothesis and proposed framework we have implementedthe framework in the iodine development industry and have observed significantimprovements in the project performance.

4.1 IntroductionIodine is one of the necessary elements that is required for natural growth in bothanimals and human beings. It is essential for the mixture of thyroid hormones. Thesehormones derive the large types of essential and strong physiological processes. It isalso essential for the early growth, development of body, brain in human beings.A healthy thyroid gland ranges from 8 to 12 mg of iodine in an adult human being.

For risk management team, we have defined a proper department for qualityassurance and selection of internal qualified team has been completed to monitorthe processes of organization on daily basis. The staff in controlling, monitoring

Figure 3.Extended framework

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department is given an initial training about the process and also further trainings arescheduled to meet the requirements for execution of the process. Extended root causeanalysis technique has been introduced with real-time implementation, controllingand monitoring of processes. Trials have been completed which are satisfactory and

will be in production scale in August 2012.This case study provides a detailed explanation of the steps we followed

using the proposed framework problem-solving strategy with embedded Six SigmaDMAIC methodology to determine how we reduce our process variation of iodinecontents in crystallized iodized salt and improve the current internal processes oforganization.

4.2 The define phase4.2.1 Project charter.

. Problem statement. The standard value of iodine contents in salt is 40 ^ 10 ppm,but there is huge variation in mixing process, and daily quality reports are also

showing that the iodine contents are varying from 0.0 ppm to more than100 ppm. The same types of complaints are also coming from market. It is aproduct quality issue and sales team is constantly complaining of low sale ofproduct because of inconsistent salt quality and lack of proper identification andrisk management techniques

. Goal. Make process more reliable and ensuring iodine contents always meetsdefined limits 40 ppm and to improve the internal processes of organization bymotivating the staff for training and research.

4.3 Baseline determinationTo identify the severity of problem and for setting of base line Sigma value, lastfive months lab testing data from daily salt analysis test report was gathered.

4.3.1 Graphical presentation. The data was also presented in different graphs tohighlight the variation in iodine contents in crystallized salt, the pie chart graphshowing that only 23.6 percent salt being produced is within specification limit whereas 76.4 percent salt is out of specification both in lower side (27.6 percent) and higherside (48.8 percent). By seeing the time series plot of iodine contents, we can say that theprocess of iodization mixing is totally uncontrolled and need some concrete action tobring the process under control (Figures 4 and 5).

4.3.2 DPMO and Sigma value before the implementation

No. of test with in specifications: 29.

No. of test with low iodine value: 34.

No. of test with high iodine value: 60.

No. of opportunity: 3.

Figure 4.Dot plot of iodine contents

Iodine contents

175150125100755025

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DPMO using the number of defects:Total number of units: 123.

Number of defects: 94.

Opportunities for error in one unit: 3.

DPMO 254,742.5.

The base line Sigma value calculated 2.15.

5. Results discussionKeeping in view the results of DOE, i.e. the all three factors; mixing method, mixingspeed and time have no significant effect in reducing the iodine contents variation,so the forth factor salt particle size may have the direct effect on the uniformdistribution of potassium iodate in refined crystal salt. So, we come out of box and startthinking of other methods of iodine mixing in salt. Scientific literature was studied toknow the best possible method of mixing the potassium iodate in our salt.

5.1 Salt iodization techniquesIn our study, it has been shown that by iodine mixture can be made by addition ofpotassium iodate to the salt. This method is termed as wet method. Also dry potassiumiodate can be mixed with salt. In wet method, potassium iodate is dissolved in water tomake a concentrated solution. The solution then further can be sprayed or dripped onthe salt with uniform rate. One other method used is dry method, in which drypotassium iodate is mixed with the salt. Then it is mixed with the anti caking agent.The anti caking agent consists of four more salts that are mixed together in ratio of1:9 salt. The powder solution is then sprinkled over the dry salt. Potassium iodate is theessential element in both methods. The ratio must of mixing must be carefullymanaged in order to achieve the uniform amount of iodine particles.

5.2 Selection of methodAccording to our salt specifications, the particle size is approximately 6 mm, and studyshows that with this particle size dry mixing method is not suitable, so we must

Figure 5.Iodine variation

percentage

23.6%

27.6%

48.8%

Category

High Iodine

Low Iodine ontent

OK

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think about some other suitable method. As the potassium iodate has very fine particlesize less than 0.15 mm which means that after some time of mixing the Potassiumiodate having finer particle size and is heavy than salt, will settle and move down at thebottom of the container, causing variation in iodine contents in salt.

5.3 Results interpretationAs thep-value is 0.002 which is less than 0.05, so the results are significant and rejectthe null hypothesis. Further we can get the best results at after centrifuge or at afterdrier point. Whereas the box plot and individual value plot show the minimum variationat centrifuge point. So, we can say that the best results can be achieved of feeding thesolution at after centrifuge point.

5.4 DPMO and Sigma value after implementation

No. of test with in specifications: 46.

No. of test with low iodine value: 5.

No. of test with high iodine value: 1.No. of opportunity: 3.

Total number of units: 46.

Number of defects: 6.

Opportunities for error in one unit: 3.

DPMO 43,478.26.

The Sigma value after improvement calculated 3.2.

5.5 Results conclusionsFinal results comparison shown in Table I.

6. Future work and conclusionThe future extensionwork to this research is deriving a more robust model with advanceembedded tools and techniques of Six Sigma and various other mythologies that arerequired for core functionality of industrial and organizational business processes.There are a number of processes that are directly affected by the cost, time and quality ofthe product. The model will be extended with further improvement of risk managementframework for handling uncertain risks. More tools and methodologies will be added tominimize the impact of risks in real-time environment and to provide the best possiblesolution.

The basic concept about Six Sigma as a management methodology limits the research

in this area. A data-driven process improvement undertakes the Six Sigma methodologies

Improvement indicators Value at start of project Value after improvement

DPMO 254,742 43,478Sigma value 2.1 3.2Pp value 0.14 0.53Ppk value 0.06 0.37

Table I.Final results comparison

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to manage the risks internal and external to the organization. Also the primary focus ofthis study is to provide real-time solutions to the risks and also sort out the solutions forthe uncertain risks. The framework is based on extensive critical study of previousmethodologies in different industries and organizations. The literature review also shows

that the current research conducted in this area lacks proper risk management frameworkand the existing methodologies are insufficient to deal with the risks in fast paced industrialenvironment. Although the process improvement and quality management concept ofSix Sigma correlates it with the project management mythologies. It is also termed ascustomer driven approach with core focus on reduction in variance of processes. This studyused advance tools to analyze the efficiency of project processes and derived solutionsfor the defects that caused the efficiency level to increase at sufficient level. A set ofhypotheses are formulated and dully verified and tested with correlation to errors, defects,process capability, continual improvement and other essential components projects. Theproposed framework also provides methodology for dealing with risks in real-timeenvironment. By embedding the process with Six Sigma tools, the process is improved itselfto provide the required quality level for production of quality products. It also achieves the

continual improvement factor by monitoring and controlling the processes throughoutthe life cycle of project, hence minimizing the defects to lowest levels. The study can bebeneficial to the industrial business whether technical or non-technical to improve theirprocesses and manage the risks in order to provide the continual improvement in the wholeorganization with a major reduction in cost and increase in revenues of organization.

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Further reading

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Ebadi, Y.M. and Utterback, J.M. (1984), The effects of communication and technologicalinformation, Management Science, Vol. 30 No. 5, pp. 572-585.

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About the authorMuhammad Usman Tariq is a Management Professional with extensive experience in providingconsulting, training, business consultancy, and project management expertise to client projectsrepresenting a wide range of industries and corporations. Currently he is responsible for a

top-rated consulting and training firm department, that includes consulting, training, productdevelopment, testing, and quality assurance. He is a Certified Six Sigma Master Black Belt withmore than five years experience of implementing DMAIC methodology to achieve businessgoals and improving the processes. He is also a certified Six Sigma Master Implementer, withexperience of providing training to Green Belts and supervising Six Sigma projects in variousorganizations. He is a Trainer/Tutor for Management, Computer Science, Software EngineeringBS/MS courses for classroom and online sessions provided globally, as per the universityrequirements with updated modules. He also has practical experience in establishing,implementing and auditing the Information Security Management System in differentorganizations. Muhammad Usman Tariq can be contacted at: [email protected]

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