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A Model for Joint Choice of Airport and Ground Access Mode
11th National Transportation Planning Applications ConferenceMay 6-10, 2007, Daytona Beach, Florida
Session 14: Hot and Cool Topics in Travel Modeling
Surabhi Gupta, Peter Vovsha and Robert Donnelly
Motivation for Focus on Air Passenger Demand Problem: Regional Models lack capability to analyze
changes to airports and/or ground access modes
How are airports typically treated in a regional model? Employment Centers (for work trips) Special Generator type estimation (for non-work trips) Distortions for sub-areas adjacent to airports
Distinctive characteristics of trips to/from airport Different from everyday activities Market includes non-residents/visitors Higher willingness to pay for some segments
FAA Regional Airport Study: Phase I
Preliminary Joint Airport Choice and Mode of Access model developed and tested for NY Region
Developed in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for a possible subsequent more intensive phase of air passenger demand analysis, and to
Provide an initial modeling tool for air passenger demand analysis with respect to airport operations, aviation service measures and pricing, and ground access characteristics
Estimation: Air Passenger Survey – 2005 NY BPM travel time and costs (approximate) Airport service and cost attributes (limited)
Literature Review
Pels et al.(1998) Airport-Access mode- Airline NL model Business vs leisure
Hess and Polak Airport Choice (2005) - Business vs Leisure,
Resident vs Visitor Airport-Airline-Access mode (2004) – Business
travelers only Basar and Bhat (2004)
MNL vs PCMNL model for airport choice
FAA Regional Study - 9 Airports John F Kennedy (JFK) La Guardia (LGA) Newark Liberty Int’l (EWR)
Long Island MacArthur (ISP) Westchester County (HPN) Stewart Int’l (SWF) Trenton Mercer (TTN) Atlantic City Int’l (ACY) Lehigh Valley Int’l (ABE)
8 Ground Access Modes
Auto Drop Off/ Pick up
Auto Park
Taxi Cabs
Local Bus
Shared Van
Rail Transit
Rental Car
Chartered Bus
Model Structure
Nested Logit Model Upper Level- Airport Lower Level – Access Mode Nesting Coefficient <1 could not be estimated
72 alternatives = 9 airports x 8 access modes, out of which 68 are available and 65 were observed
Explanatory Variables Airport Characteristics – size, domestic yield,
delays, gauge, river crossings, distance, access mode logsum ..
Access Mode Characteristics – travel time, cost, parking cost, income, age, gender, group size
Variables Used Compared with other models
Variables PB Study Hess & Polak (2004)
Pels et al. (1998)
Access Time, Access cost
Flight frequency
Seats (or Gauge)
Number of Flights
Airport-specific coefficients
Cross-coefficients
Constants
Average Yield or fare cost
Average Delay at Airports
Mode Specific Constants
Socio-economic variables
Segmentation Business only
Air Passenger Segmentation
Travel Purpose Business Non Business
Destination International Domestic
Traveler Resident Visitor
− Full Segmentation− Behavioral differences
− Partial Segmentation− US Market is price comparable− Domestic travel distances are
comparable to international
− Partial Segmentation− Restricted choice sets− Fundamental behavior is
similar (every passenger is both)
Estimation Results: Airport ChoiceBusiness Non-Business
Impedance Distance Distance^1.5
-0.0640.002
-8.03.2
-0.0680.003
-15.37.5
River Crossings Hudson -1.207 -24.4 -0.918 -29.7 East River/ Harlem River
-0.109 -1.6 -0.008 -0.3
Delaware River -0.905 -4.1 -0.660 -4.3
Attractions
Average Yield -5.368 -3.6 -16.128
-25.0
Average Delay (min) -0.007 -2.8 -0.005 -4.0
# International Airports Served
0.002 1.3
Airport Size (logged)
Number of flights 1 1
Domestic Gauge 0.167 1.1
Estimation Results: Access Mode Choice
Business Non-Business
Airtrain Present- Rail 2.166 10.6 1.517 14.3
Rental Cars - Manhattan -2.492 -15.7 -1.889 -12.3
Log -Number of Flights
Taxi 0.546 8.7 0.605 13.7
Shared Van 0.413 3.1 0.670 6.6
Log -Number of Domestic Flights
Local Bus 1.970 2.4 3.084 7.3
Value of Time Estimates
Airport- Ground Access Choice Model (2005) Business: $62.6/hr Non-Business: $41.0/hr
NYMTC Regional Model (1997) Commuter: $15.8/hr Non-Commuter: $10-$12/hr
Confirmation from other research (business): Hess & Polak, 1995 ($93-$155/hr) Pels Nijkamp & Rietveld, 1995 ($120-$170/hr) Furuichi & Koppelman, 1994 ($72.6/hr)
Summary of Behavioral Observations
Segment Prefer Do Not Prefer
Residents (vs Non-Resident)
Auto Park, Local Bus
Rental Car, Taxi, Shared Ride, Rail, Chartered Bus
International (vs domestic)
Taxis, Shared Ride, Chartered Buses
Rental Cars, Auto Park
Female (vs Male) Auto Park, Rental Car, Transit (Rail and Bus)*
Group Size>= 2 Rental Car*, Chartered Bus
Rail, Taxi, Local Bus*
Age (< 35 yrs) Rail*, Taxis* Auto Park, Rental Cars
Age (> 55 yrs) Auto Park, Rental Cars, Rail, Local Bus
*For Non-business trips only
Auto Drop-off/Pick-up is Reference point
Impact of Income
Low income groups (< 60K) Less likely - Taxis, Rental cars, Auto park Non-Availability of car or higher travel costs Prefer public transportation (rail and bus)
High income groups (>140 K) Prefer Taxis Less likely to use Shared Ride, Local Buses Also prefer Auto Park, Rental Cars, Rail transit for
Non-business trips
Future Development
The model has been applied as a sample enumeration model, meaning it adjusts (or “pivots-off”) observed or baseline forecast shares based on changes to either the ground access or the airport measures for a given planning scenario.
The preliminary model has demonstrated the utility of a joint airport choice and mode of access analysis for airport ground access and operations planning
Possible further development in subsequent planning phases, including: Development of additional airport related measures of
capacity, service, and costs Refinement in network (skim) ground access travel
times and costs Re-estimation of the model with these added variables
Incorporate model as a Special Generator in the Regional NY Model