A Long-Range Multimodal Strategy

General Model DesignGeneral Model DesignGeneral Model DesignGeneral Model Design

Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)Zones (TAZs)Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Highway Network/Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)Zones (TAZs)

Development of Synthetic Trip Development of Synthetic Trip TablesTablesDevelopment of Synthetic Trip Development of Synthetic Trip TablesTables

Validation Procedures & ResultsValidation Procedures & ResultsValidation Procedures & ResultsValidation Procedures & Results

Model Application (2003 & 2030)Model Application (2003 & 2030)Model Application (2003 & 2030)Model Application (2003 & 2030)

Revie

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Model CharacteristicsModel Characteristics• Address Major Corridor Movements• Relatively Easy to Maintain and Update• Uses Existing Data Resources• Uses Existing Software for Application• Links to Existing GIS

Databases/Software• Sensitive to Shifts in

Socioeconomic/Land Use Patterns• Assess Impacts of Shifts in Travel Modes• Assess Freight Movements

• Address Major Corridor Movements• Relatively Easy to Maintain and Update• Uses Existing Data Resources• Uses Existing Software for Application• Links to Existing GIS

Databases/Software• Sensitive to Shifts in

Socioeconomic/Land Use Patterns• Assess Impacts of Shifts in Travel Modes• Assess Freight Movements

Potential MethodologiesPotential Methodologies• Traditional Four Step TDM Procedures

Trip GenerationTrip DistributionMode ChoiceTraffic Assignment

• Trip Table Expansion (FRATAR)Preparation of Base Trip Table(s)Development of Expansion Factors

• Traditional Four Step TDM ProceduresTrip GenerationTrip DistributionMode ChoiceTraffic Assignment

• Trip Table Expansion (FRATAR)Preparation of Base Trip Table(s)Development of Expansion Factors

Steps In Model DevelopmentSteps In Model Development

• Development of Highway Network & TAZs

Selection of Detail for Highway Network Definition of TAZs TAZ/Network Compatibility

• Synthetic Matrix Estimation (SME) Development of Seed Matrices Matrix Estimation

• Traffic Assignment

• Development of Highway Network & TAZs

Selection of Detail for Highway Network Definition of TAZs TAZ/Network Compatibility

• Synthetic Matrix Estimation (SME) Development of Seed Matrices Matrix Estimation

• Traffic Assignment

Network/TAZ DefinitionNetwork/TAZ Definition

• Incorporate All Roadways in TRIMS• 1,283 Miles of Interstate/Freeways• 4,300 Miles of Principal Arterials• 8,271 Miles of Other

•Subset of TRIMS Interstate and FreewaysPrincipal Arterials

• Incorporate All Roadways in TRIMS• 1,283 Miles of Interstate/Freeways• 4,300 Miles of Principal Arterials• 8,271 Miles of Other

•Subset of TRIMS Interstate and FreewaysPrincipal Arterials

TRIMS/Model ComparisonTRIMS/Model Comparison

NATIONAL FUNCTIONAL NFC Travel Model/TRIMS Travel Model/TRIMSCLASSIFICATION CODE Model TRIMS Ratio Model TRIMS Ratio

RURAL INTERSTATE 01 368.46 368.46 1.00 12,901,049 12,901,049 1.00RURAL OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 02 1581.97 1581.97 1.00 13,693,621 13,693,621 1.00RURAL MINOR ARTERIAL 06 2595.38 2595.38 1.00 12,973,803 12,973,803 1.00RURAL MAJ OR COLLECTOR 07 299.58 3625.57 0.08 640,940 7,756,768 0.08RURAL MINOR COLLECTOR 08 0 8.03 0.00 0 19,522 0.00RURAL LOCAL 09 0 0 -NA- 0 0 -NA-URBAN INTERSTATE 11 613.27 613.27 1.00 44,535,171 44,535,171 1.00URBAN FREEWAY OR EXPRESSWAY 12 300.84 300.84 1.00 10,834,901 10,834,901 1.00URBAN OTHER PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 14 2717.87 2717.87 1.00 51,938,821 51,938,821 1.00URBAN MINOR ARTERIAL 16 525.39 1803.42 0.29 5,744,441 19,718,001 0.29URBAN COLLECTOR 17 0 238.57 0.00 0 1,203,949 0.00URBAN LOCAL 19 0.00 0.00 -NA- 0 0 -NA-

9,002.76 13,853.38 0.65 153,262,747 175,575,606 0.87

ROUTE MILES DVMT

TOTAL

REGION 1 Network/TAZsREGION 1 Network/TAZs

Rural InterstateRural Principal ArterialRural Minor ArterialRural LocalUrban InterstateUrban Freeway/ExpresswayUrban Principal ArterialUrban Minor Arterial

LEGEND:LEGEND:Rural InterstateRural Principal ArterialRural Minor ArterialRural LocalUrban InterstateUrban Freeway/ExpresswayUrban Principal ArterialUrban Minor Arterial



LEGEND:LEGEND:

TAZ Boundary






LEGEND:LEGEND:

TAZ Boundary






LEGEND:LEGEND:

TAZ Boundary






LEGEND:LEGEND:

TAZ Boundary

National NetworkNational Network





LEGEND:LEGEND:

BackgroundBackground•Trip Tables Are One of the Basic

Elements of Travel Demand Models

•Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys Traditional Method for Trip Table Development

•Developing Trip Tables Using Traffic Counts has been Source of Research for Past 30 Years

•Trip Tables Are One of the Basic Elements of Travel Demand Models

•Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys Traditional Method for Trip Table Development

•Developing Trip Tables Using Traffic Counts has been Source of Research for Past 30 Years

Required InputsRequired Inputs•Traffic Counts

•Traffic Assignment Network

•Seed Trip Table

•Traffic Counts

•Traffic Assignment Network

•Seed Trip Table

Required Inputs – Traffic CountsRequired Inputs – Traffic Counts

Sample should come from widely dispersed parts of the network

•Counts on Selected Links and on Screenlines/Cutlines

•Counts Need to be Directional

Sample should come from widely dispersed parts of the network

•Counts on Selected Links and on Screenlines/Cutlines

•Counts Need to be Directional

Required Inputs – Traffic Assignment Network

Required Inputs – Traffic Assignment Network

Traffic Assignment Network MUST Produce Realistic Results

•Equilibrium Assignment Process

Traffic Assignment Network MUST Produce Realistic Results

•Equilibrium Assignment Process

Required Inputs – Seed MatrixRequired Inputs – Seed Matrix

•Default matrix

•Prior estimate based on survey measurements

•Synthetically generated (e.g., from a doubly-constrained trip distribution model)

•Default matrix

•Prior estimate based on survey measurements

•Synthetically generated (e.g., from a doubly-constrained trip distribution model)

Potential Sources of Seed MatrixPotential Sources of Seed Matrix

•Serves Two PurposesSet the dimensions for the output matrixProvide initial values for the estimated

trip table

•Serves Two PurposesSet the dimensions for the output matrixProvide initial values for the estimated

trip table

Seed MatrixSeed Matrix

•O-D Matrix Estimation only accounts for trips between zones (diagonal cells will be ignored – trips within a zone)

•O-D Matrix Estimation only accounts for trips between zones (diagonal cells will be ignored – trips within a zone)

•Every cell that is expected to have a positive flow must have a positive number in the base matrix

•Every cell that is expected to have a positive flow must have a positive number in the base matrix

•Three Trip Purposes Used •Three Trip Purposes Used

Seed MatrixSeed Matrix

•Used Trip Rates and Lengths From National Household Survey

•Used Trip Rates and Lengths From National Household Survey

WorkOtherNon-Home Based

WorkOtherNon-Home Based

UrbanRural

UrbanRural

Seed Matrix – Trip GenerationSeed Matrix – Trip Generation

Purpose Total Percent HBO 4,341 42% HBW 2,296 22% NHB 3,588 36% Grand Total 10,225 100%

● HBW – 1.70 trips/household

● HBO – 3.20 trips/household

● NHB – 2.65 trips/household

● Total – 7.55 trips/household

2001 NHTS Database2001 NHTS Database

Seed Matrix – Trip DistributionSeed Matrix – Trip Distribution

2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - HBW2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - HBW

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120

Travel Time (in minutes)

Per

cen

t o

f T

rip

s

NHTS Average Trip Length = 23.96 Min.

GM Average Trip Length = 23.92 Min.


2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - HBO2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - HBO

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120


Per

cent

of

Tri

ps




2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - NHB2001 NHTS Trip Length Distribution - NHB

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120


Pe

rcen

t o

f T

rip

s



Seed Matrix – Initial MatrixSeed Matrix – Initial Matrix

Not Person Trips;

Merging of HBW, HBO, NHB, Internal-External and External-External Trip Tables;

Seed Matrix represents Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicle Trips Only; and,

Additional Intercity (MPO to MPO) vehicle trips were added in relation to 2000 CTPP Place of Residence and Place of Work Information.

Traffic Counts

Traffic Assignment Network

Seed Trip Table

Application of TransCAD Matrix Estimation Program

Traffic Counts

Traffic Assignment Network

Seed Trip Table

Application of TransCAD Matrix Estimation Program

Input Adjustments:Input Adjustments:NetworkNetwork

Seed TableSeed TableCountsCounts

Input Adjustments:Input Adjustments:NetworkNetwork

Seed TableSeed TableCountsCounts

NO

Base Year (2003)Base Year (2003)Trip TableTrip Table

Base Year (2003)Base Year (2003)Trip TableTrip Table

YES

Good ?Good ?Good ?Good ?

Trip Table EvaluationTrip Table EvaluationTrip Table EvaluationTrip Table Evaluation

Application of TransCADApplication of TransCADMatrix EstimationMatrix Estimation

ProgramProgram

Application of TransCADApplication of TransCADMatrix EstimationMatrix Estimation

ProgramProgram

•Screenlines•Screenlines

Matrix Evaluation ParametersMatrix Evaluation Parameters

•Trip Length•Trip Length

•Goodness of Fit•Goodness of Fit

Area National TDOT Synthetic Relative FHWA Type Functional Class TRIMS db (1) Model (1) Difference 2001 (2)Rural Interstate 17.822 17.513 -0.02 26.071

Principal Arterial 13.795 14.490 0.05 15.775Minor Arterial 14.646 19.917 0.36 16.655Major Collector 9.374 0.000 -NA- 10.285Minor Collector 0.011 0.000 -NA- 9.074Local 0.000 0.000 -NA- 9.074Total 55.648 51.920 -0.07 86.934

Urban Interstate 24.305 24.667 0.01 25.011Freeways/Expressways 4.200 4.171 -0.01 4.416Principal Arterial 26.718 29.643 0.11 28.260Minor Arterial 8.928 7.839 -0.12 21.005Collector 0.396 0.000 -1.00 6.586Local 0.000 0.000 -NA- 13.079Total 64.547 66.320 0.03 98.359

120.196 118.239 -0.02 185.293

Notes:-NA- denotes that calculation is not applicable for that cell.VMT in millions miles of travel.

(1) Includes passenger cars and single unit trucks.(2) Includes all vehicles including multi-unit trucks.

TOTAL VMT

VMTVMT

Screenline – Region 1Screenline – Region 1

64

7082

88

94

8

18

12

Observed Model Relative Max.Orientation Number Volume Volume Difference Allowable

EW 8 92,568 95,822 3.5% 24.7%EW 12 314,484 321,574 2.3% 18.3%EW 18 182,166 195,102 7.1% 20.2%NS 64 87,594 90,493 3.3% 24.7%NS 70 308,700 300,926 -2.5% 18.3%NS 82 39,678 44,904 13.2% 33.3%NS 88 160,318 164,234 2.4% 20.2%NS 94 6,020 6,586 9.4% 44.9%

1,191,528 1,219,641 2.4% 18.3%

Screenline

Total

Screenline Results – Region 1Screenline Results – Region 1

Screenline Results – Region 1Screenline Results – Region 1Observed Model Relative Max.

Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU27 4,916 4,979 1.3% 47.1%S58 1,378 1,407 2.1% 76.1%I75 32,680 31,785 -2.7% 23.0%U11 3,572 3,419 -4.3% 53.1%S72 4,726 5,699 20.6% 47.8%

U411 15,588 18,269 17.2% 30.4%U129 3,932 3,929 -0.1% 51.2%

FOOTHI 3,168 2,988 -5.7% 55.6%U441 5,488 6,006 9.4% 45.1%I40 17,120 17,341 1.3% 29.4%

92,568 95,822 3.5% 24.7%

U27 3,792 4,892 29.0% 51.9%S61 7,030 7,352 4.6% 41.1%S62 22,870 17,802 -22.2% 26.3%S95 22,722 22,632 -0.4% 26.4%

U25W 16,898 24,239 43.4% 29.5%S131 13,990 13,323 -4.8% 31.7%I75 49,314 47,359 -4.0% 19.7%S33 41,650 45,412 9.0% 21.0%I640 47,520 43,907 -7.6% 20.0%

U11W 13,688 15,819 15.6% 32.0%U11E 18,664 19,958 6.9% 28.4%S92 9,274 6,805 -26.6% 37.0%U70 6,074 8,898 46.5% 43.4%U70 3,724 4,221 13.3% 52.3%I40 19,488 20,006 2.7% 28.0%

U25E 7,072 7,111 0.6% 41.0%U321 2,010 2,966 47.6% 66.0%S70 2,214 2,256 1.9% 63.6%I26 6,490 6,616 1.9% 42.4%

314,484 321,574 2.3% 9.4%

Screenline

Total

8

Total

12


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU27 6,740 9,266 37.5% 41.8%

U25W 8,268 8,165 -1.2% 38.7%I75 25,044 25,459 1.7% 25.5%

U25W 1,294 2,176 68.2% 77.9%U25E 19,484 22,946 17.8% 28.0%S70 238 443 86.1% 147.6%I-181 24,960 24,890 -0.3% 25.5%

11,760 11,631 -1.1% 33.9%I81 20,614 25,472 23.6% 27.4%

U11W 22,988 22,851 -0.6% 26.3%U19 18,692 17,437 -6.7% 28.4%S34 9,232 12,695 37.5% 37.1%

U421 6,342 5,202 -18.0% 42.7%U421 6,510 6,469 -0.6% 42.3%

182,166 195,102 7.1% 20.2%

S52 1,268 1,494 17.9% 78.5%S62 1,146 1,151 0.5% 81.5%I40 24,428 24,321 -0.4% 25.7%U27 13,456 13,259 -1.5% 32.2%U70 4,150 3,916 -5.6% 50.2%S58 1,378 1,306 -5.3% 76.1%I75 29,668 29,113 -1.9% 23.9%U11 5,054 5,627 11.3% 46.6%U411 5,748 8,955 55.8% 44.4%S39 1,298 1,351 4.1% 77.8%

87,594 90,493 3.3% 13.9%

Screenline

Total

18

Total

64


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU25W 2,376 2,176 -8.4% 61.9%S63 19,796 26,278 32.7% 27.8%

U441 1,100 1,206 9.7% 82.8%I75 35,166 32,197 -8.4% 22.4%S61 25,676 20,207 -21.3% 25.2%

U25W 17,344 17,910 3.3% 29.2%S62 10,812 13,055 20.7% 34.9%S131 8,694 6,435 -26.0% 37.9%

11,496 16,013 39.3% 34.1%I75 114,088 108,450 -4.9% 13.4%U70 27,792 24,986 -10.1% 24.5%S332 8,950 8,069 -9.8% 37.5%U321 13,222 12,007 -9.2% 32.4%U411 11,850 11,739 -0.9% 33.8%S72 338 198 -41.4% 129.3%

308,700 300,926 -2.5% 18.3%

S33 644 1,575 144.6% 101.4%U11W 8,180 8,348 2.1% 38.8%U11E 5,568 6,490 16.6% 44.9%

I81 22,150 22,429 1.3% 26.7%U321 3,136 6,062 93.3% 55.8%U25 4,980 4,930 -1.0% 46.8%

44,658 49,834 11.6% 20.5%

Screenline

Total

70

Total

82


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU11W 17,820 18,404 3.3% 28.9%S126 8,360 8,278 -1.0% 38.5%I81 24,040 25,165 4.7% 25.8%

5,940 8,982 51.2% 43.8%S75 11,268 17,056 51.4% 34.4%S36 12,732 9,160 -28.1% 32.9%I181 31,680 30,622 -3.3% 23.3%S354 14,158 12,513 -11.6% 31.6%U321 26,156 25,071 -4.1% 25.0%I26 8,164 8,985 10.1% 38.9%

160,318 164,234 2.4% 20.2%

U421 920 1,393 51.4% 88.6%S67 3,620 3,392 -6.3% 52.8%

U321 1,480 1,801 21.7% 74.0%6,020 6,586 9.4% 43.6%

Screenline

Total

88

Total

94


54

46

62

0

4

18

12


Orientation Number Volume Volume Difference AllowableEW 0 224,862 237,999 5.8% 18.3%EW 4 139,294 140,989 1.2% 20.2%EW 12 80,352 84,951 5.7% 24.7%EW 18 14,010 12,938 -7.6% 44.9%NS 46 93,110 92,471 -0.7% 24.7%NS 54 98,498 92,582 -6.0% 24.7%NS 62 99,580 100,712 1.1% 24.7%

749,706 762,643 1.7% 18.3%

Screenline

Total


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableS16 496 814 64.0% 111.9%S56 396 397 0.2% 121.8%U72 12,882 12,894 0.1% 32.7%I24 32,026 32,112 0.3% 23.2%I24 44,956 44,959 0.0% 20.4%U11 5,318 5,424 2.0% 45.7%S148 1,614 1,614 0.0% 71.7%S17 11,762 11,805 0.4% 33.9%U27 24,250 23,111 -4.7% 25.8%I75 74,568 85,884 15.2% 15.5%S60 5,162 7,143 38.4% 46.2%

U411 4,442 4,344 -2.2% 48.9%S68 6,990 7,498 7.3% 41.2%

224,862 237,999 5.8% 18.3%

U41 A 10,642 10,891 2.3% 35.2%I24 23,962 23,765 -0.8% 25.9%U41 2,704 2,478 -8.4% 59.0%S56 3,636 3,828 5.3% 52.7%S108 1,246 2,526 102.7% 79.0%S28 6,092 7,921 30.0% 43.4%

U127 1,962 3,540 80.4% 66.6%S111 6,444 5,719 -11.2% 42.5%U27 18,304 18,009 -1.6% 28.7%S60 4,926 4,386 -11.0% 47.0%I75 28,080 28,103 0.1% 24.4%U11 5,234 5,108 -2.4% 46.0%S30 10,024 10,858 8.3% 36.0%

U411 11,146 8,953 -19.7% 34.6%S310 4,892 4,903 0.2% 47.1%

139,294 140,989 1.2% 20.2%

Screenline

Total

0

Total

4


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU70 4,666 4,956 6.2% 48.0%S56 3,842 3,811 -0.8% 51.7%S111 12,872 12,986 0.9% 32.7%U70N 3,416 2,425 -29.0% 54.0%

I40 23,690 27,105 14.4% 26.0%U127 10,370 11,665 12.5% 35.5%S298 2,416 2,489 3.0% 61.5%S101 14,482 14,525 0.3% 31.3%

2,772 3,256 17.5% 58.4%1,826 1,733 -5.1% 68.4%

80,352 84,951 5.7% 24.7%

S151 754 642 -14.8% 95.5%S53 2,784 2,155 -22.6% 58.3%S52 2,988 3,337 11.7% 56.8%S42 4,042 4,673 15.6% 50.7%

U127 3,442 2,131 -38.1% 53.8%14,010 12,938 -7.6% 44.9%

S96 3,412 4,109 20.4% 54.0%U70S 11,702 10,461 -10.6% 33.9%I24 28,666 27,906 -2.7% 24.2%U41 7,902 6,941 -12.2% 39.3%S55 14,764 14,975 1.4% 31.1%

U41 A 13,978 14,016 0.3% 31.7%U41 A 7,596 10,378 36.6% 39.9%U64 3,298 2,872 -12.9% 54.7%S16 1,792 814 -54.6% 68.9%

93,110 92,471 -0.7% 24.7%

46

Total

Screenline

Total

12

Total

18


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableS53 4,750 4,669 -1.7% 47.7%S52 2,988 3,997 33.8% 56.8%S136 456 346 -24.2% 115.5%S85 1,216 1,057 -13.0% 79.7%S111 15,210 12,137 -20.2% 30.7%

0 7,760 7,658 -1.3% 39.6%U70N 8,386 8,245 -1.7% 38.5%

I40 27,194 25,744 -5.3% 24.7%U70 11,760 11,127 -5.4% 33.9%S30 1,386 976 -29.6% 75.9%S111 4,946 4,833 -2.3% 47.0%S28 4,948 4,812 -2.8% 46.9%S283 3,656 3,415 -6.6% 52.6%U41 3,842 3,566 -7.2% 51.7%

98,498 92,582 -6.0% 24.7%

S52 1,322 1,263 -4.4% 77.3%S62 632 688 8.9% 102.1%I40 20,866 22,561 8.1% 27.3%U70 1,822 1,878 3.1% 68.5%U27 4,916 4,979 1.3% 47.1%S68 5,218 5,483 5.1% 46.0%S58 1,840 1,584 -13.9% 68.2%S30 5,636 4,707 -16.5% 44.7%

0 1,826 2,369 29.7% 68.4%I75 30,040 29,252 -2.6% 23.8%0 4,950 4,188 -15.4% 46.9%

U11 9,526 9,391 -1.4% 36.7%U64 9,304 10,763 15.7% 37.0%S313 1,682 1,605 -4.6% 70.6%

99,580 100,712 1.1% 24.7%

Screenline

Total

54

Total

62


36 40

24

6

48

0

18

12



EW 0 45,998 47,721 3.7% 33.3%EW 6 73,952 67,837 -8.3% 33.3%EW 12 344,268 343,745 -0.2% 18.3%EW 18 175,380 178,665 1.9% 20.2%NS 24 34,816 38,507 10.6% 33.3%NS 36 241,488 251,439 4.1% 18.3%NS 40 455,378 464,695 2.0% 18.3%NS 48 121,980 121,155 -0.7% 24.7%

1,493,260 1,513,765 1.4% 18.3%

Screenline

Total


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableS69 2,050 1,876 -8.5% 65.5%

PNA D 2,232 2,232 0.0% 63.4%S13 2,502 2,509 0.3% 60.7%U43 8,142 8,158 0.2% 38.9%S11 2,382 2,374 -0.3% 61.9%I65 10,028 10,278 2.5% 36.0%U31 6,106 7,118 16.6% 43.4%U231 10,184 10,952 7.5% 35.7%S97 2,372 2,224 -6.2% 62.0%

45,998 47,721 3.7% 33.3%

S13 590 721 22.2% 104.8%S48 1,062 1,358 27.8% 83.9%S20 2,940 2,292 -22.1% 57.1%U43 11,880 11,081 -6.7% 33.7%U31 2,922 4,125 41.2% 57.3%I65 13,002 13,038 0.3% 32.6%

U431 1,746 2,042 17.0% 69.6%U31 A 4,648 4,573 -1.6% 48.1%U41 A 9,800 7,738 -21.0% 36.3%U231 21,782 16,312 -25.1% 26.8%S64 3,580 4,558 27.3% 53.0%

73,952 67,837 -8.3% 33.3%

Screenline

Total

0

Total

6


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableS69 2,050 1,876 -8.5% 65.5%

PNA D 2,232 2,232 0.0% 63.4%S13 2,502 2,509 0.3% 60.7%U43 8,142 8,158 0.2% 38.9%S11 2,382 2,374 -0.3% 61.9%I65 10,028 10,278 2.5% 36.0%U31 6,106 7,118 16.6% 43.4%U231 10,184 10,952 7.5% 35.7%S97 2,372 2,224 -6.2% 62.0%

45,998 47,721 3.7% 33.3%

S13 590 721 22.2% 104.8%S48 1,062 1,358 27.8% 83.9%S20 2,940 2,292 -22.1% 57.1%U43 11,880 11,081 -6.7% 33.7%U31 2,922 4,125 41.2% 57.3%I65 13,002 13,038 0.3% 32.6%

U431 1,746 2,042 17.0% 69.6%U31 A 4,648 4,573 -1.6% 48.1%U41 A 9,800 7,738 -21.0% 36.3%U231 21,782 16,312 -25.1% 26.8%S64 3,580 4,558 27.3% 53.0%

73,952 67,837 -8.3% 33.3%

Screenline

Total

0

Total

6


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableS13 2,874 2,940 2.3% 57.6%S48 1,674 1,608 -3.9% 70.7%I40 19,188 19,646 2.4% 28.1%S46 11,650 12,207 4.8% 34.0%

0 2,940 2,804 -4.6% 57.1%S96 6,626 7,058 6.5% 42.0%S96 13,188 15,515 17.6% 32.4%S96 7,546 11,321 50.0% 40.0%

U431 14,804 15,281 3.2% 31.0%U31 24,028 21,643 -9.9% 25.9%I65 97,530 98,541 1.0% 13.7%I24 91,962 91,456 -0.5% 13.9%U41 24,454 16,554 -32.3% 25.7%

I840 F 15,404 16,441 6.7% 30.6%U231 7,566 7,284 -3.7% 40.0%S96 2,834 3,445 21.6% 57.9%

344,268 343,745 -0.2% 18.3%

U79 8,826 7,940 -10.0% 37.7%S13 21,160 25,596 21.0% 27.1%

U41 A 16,276 18,159 11.6% 29.9%I24 31,500 33,338 5.8% 23.3%U41 14,896 11,482 -22.9% 31.0%S49 5,430 5,519 1.6% 45.3%I65 41,380 41,034 -0.8% 21.1%

U31W 7,694 7,390 -4.0% 39.7%S25 2,188 2,542 16.2% 63.9%S109 8,418 9,260 10.0% 38.4%U31E 9,944 10,079 1.4% 36.1%S10 5,520 4,213 -23.7% 45.0%S56 2,148 2,113 -1.6% 64.3%

175,380 178,665 1.9% 20.2%

Screenline

Total

12

Total

18


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU79 3,696 5,239 41.7% 52.4%U70 7,084 6,866 -3.1% 41.0%I40 19,564 20,071 2.6% 27.9%

U412 2,246 3,223 43.5% 63.3%U64 2,226 3,109 39.7% 63.5%

34,816 38,507 10.6% 33.3%

U41 4,638 4,645 0.2% 48.1%S49 6,850 6,711 -2.0% 41.5%I24 38,156 37,914 -0.6% 21.7%

U41 A 6,584 6,469 -1.7% 42.1%S12 10,780 10,467 -2.9% 35.0%U70 3,900 12,594 222.9% 51.4%I40 49,216 46,646 -5.2% 19.7%

U70S 23,860 24,260 1.7% 25.9%S100 21,464 21,361 -0.5% 27.0%S96 10,556 10,531 -0.2% 35.3%U31 11,888 17,614 48.2% 33.7%

23,732 18,967 -20.1% 26.0%U412 13,116 16,526 26.0% 32.5%S50 8,816 8,531 -3.2% 37.7%

U31 A 4,512 4,658 3.2% 48.6%U31 3,420 3,546 3.7% 54.0%

241,488 251,439 4.1% 18.3%

Screenline

Total

24

Total

36


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableI65 37,860 37,604 -0.7% 21.8%

U31W 2,756 3,088 12.0% 58.6%S25 2,376 2,930 23.3% 61.9%S386 39,542 38,195 -3.4% 21.4%U31E 35,196 45,689 29.8% 22.4%S45 31,126 31,360 0.8% 23.4%

U70N 29,058 29,470 1.4% 24.1%I40 91,280 89,725 -1.7% 13.9%0 5,880 9,698 64.9% 44.0%

U70S 21,384 26,074 21.9% 27.0%S254 31,108 25,148 -19.2% 23.5%

0 13,258 12,849 -3.1% 32.4%I24 83,660 82,270 -1.7% 14.3%S96 4,342 4,169 -4.0% 49.3%

U41 A 3,066 3,085 0.6% 56.2%S64 2,990 3,222 7.8% 56.8%

U431 3,478 4,632 33.2% 53.6%U64 4,834 4,855 0.4% 47.4%U231 12,184 10,633 -12.7% 33.4%

455,378 464,695 2.0% 18.3%

S52 2,736 2,184 -20.2% 58.7%S151 892 642 -28.0% 89.6%S56 476 479 0.7% 113.6%S262 2,308 2,404 4.1% 62.6%S25 8,556 7,611 -11.0% 38.2%

U70N 3,584 3,666 2.3% 53.0%I40 27,004 26,413 -2.2% 24.7%S53 1,854 1,880 1.4% 68.0%U70 5,126 4,587 -10.5% 46.3%S96 3,872 3,542 -8.5% 51.5%

U70S 11,878 12,042 1.4% 33.7%U41 1,604 1,644 2.5% 71.8%I24 30,600 30,513 -0.3% 23.6%S64 2,464 2,164 -12.2% 61.1%

U41 A 7,962 9,866 23.9% 39.2%S55 5,482 5,733 4.6% 45.2%U64 3,662 3,772 3.0% 52.6%S97 1,920 2,013 4.9% 67.1%

121,980 121,155 -0.7% 24.7%

Screenline

Total

40

Total

48


2218

0

4

0

18

12



EW 0 178,660 197,000 10.3% 20.2%EW 10 58,420 69,371 18.7% 33.3%EW 18 24,914 29,303 17.6% 44.9%NS 0 116,718 127,834 9.5% 24.7%NS 4 304,416 264,314 -13.2% 18.3%NS 8 90,818 98,006 7.9% 24.7%NS 18 64,464 63,735 -1.1% 33.3%NS 22 52,054 47,788 -8.2% 33.3%

890,464 897,351 0.8% 18.3%

Screenline

Total


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU61 21,418 24,185 12.9% 27.0%

0 3,412 3,199 -6.3% 54.0%U51 12,782 12,782 0.0% 32.8%I55 54,362 56,206 3.4% 19.4%0 13,950 20,254 45.2% 31.7%

U78 32,692 34,369 5.1% 23.0%0 7,440 8,458 13.7% 40.2%

U72 13,348 15,716 17.7% 32.3%S18 1,738 1,757 1.1% 69.7%S125 3,620 3,748 3.5% 52.8%U45 7,588 10,016 32.0% 39.9%S22 2,610 2,603 -0.3% 59.8%S57 3,700 3,708 0.2% 52.4%

178,660 197,000 10.3% 20.2%

U51 10,256 10,632 3.7% 35.7%U45W 9,618 10,053 4.5% 36.5%U79 10,322 19,979 93.6% 35.6%

U45E 14,458 14,439 -0.1% 31.3%U70 3,840 3,451 -10.1% 51.7%S22 4,708 5,381 14.3% 47.8%

0 496 599 20.8% 111.9%U641 4,326 4,461 3.1% 49.4%

0 396 376 -5.1% 121.8%58,420 69,371 18.7% 33.3%

Screenline

Total

0

Total

10


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableS78 510 502 -1.5% 110.7%U51 5,404 7,624 41.1% 45.4%U51 8,436 10,929 29.6% 38.4%

U45E 5,080 4,754 -6.4% 46.5%U641 5,484 5,493 0.2% 45.2%

24,914 29,303 17.6% 44.9%

I40 42,008 44,862 6.8% 20.9%I55 38,330 46,773 22.0% 21.7%

9,500 9,054 -4.7% 36.7%26,880 27,145 1.0% 24.8%

116,718 127,834 9.5% 24.7%

Screenline

Total

18

Total

0


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU51 18,262 18,241 -0.1% 28.7%S14 7,556 6,746 -10.7% 40.0%S205 8,168 11,249 37.7% 38.9%U79 16,366 16,366 0.0% 29.9%U64 34,160 33,424 -2.2% 22.6%I40 86,210 66,184 -23.2% 14.0%S23 15,840 28,149 77.7% 30.3%U72 36,920 27,047 -26.7% 22.0%S385 67,074 46,560 -30.6% 16.7%

0 13,860 10,348 -25.3% 31.8%304,416 264,314 -13.2% 18.3%

S78 3,308 3,671 11.0% 54.7%I155 6,414 7,866 22.6% 42.6%S88 1,026 1,268 23.6% 85.0%U51 10,520 10,632 1.1% 35.3%S19 3,250 3,307 1.7% 55.0%S54 2,106 2,013 -4.4% 64.8%U70 1,436 1,768 23.1% 74.9%I40 22,740 22,031 -3.1% 26.4%S59 1,960 2,767 41.2% 66.6%U64 13,680 14,215 3.9% 32.0%S57 11,030 12,116 9.8% 34.7%U72 13,348 16,353 22.5% 32.3%

90,818 98,006 7.9% 24.7%

Screenline

Total

4

Total

8


Number Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableS54 2,574 2,743 6.5% 60.1%S22 7,498 8,144 8.6% 40.1%U79 5,870 5,853 -0.3% 44.0%

U70 A 2,406 2,444 1.6% 61.6%S104 874 850 -2.8% 90.3%U70 3,582 3,527 -1.5% 53.0%I40 14,756 17,859 21.0% 31.1%

U412 9,124 7,908 -13.3% 37.3%S100 9,992 6,549 -34.5% 36.0%U64 4,812 4,845 0.7% 47.4%S57 2,976 3,012 1.2% 56.9%

64,464 63,735 -1.1% 33.3%

U79 6,612 5,239 -20.8% 42.1%U70 6,774 5,795 -14.5% 41.7%I40 22,246 21,011 -5.6% 26.6%

U412 7,634 7,054 -7.6% 39.9%S100 3,416 2,979 -12.8% 54.0%

0 448 336 -24.9% 116.3%U64 2,724 3,178 16.7% 58.8%S69 2,200 2,198 -0.1% 63.8%

52,054 47,788 -8.2% 33.3%

Screenline

Total

18

Total

22

Screenline Results – River CrossingsScreenline Results – River CrossingsObserved Model Relative Max.

River Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableS166 3,684 4,105 11.4% 52.5%I24 31,618 30,091 -4.8% 23.3%U41 3,920 2,835 -27.7% 51.3%U27 60,560 53,874 -11.0% 18.0%

U127 18,396 32,016 74.0% 28.6%S319 30,478 28,547 -6.3% 23.6%S153 41,386 40,028 -3.3% 21.1%S60 3,402 4,153 22.1% 54.1%S30 1,796 2,533 41.0% 68.8%S68 5,218 5,483 5.1% 46.0%S58 11,872 9,534 -19.7% 33.7%I75 36,692 36,267 -1.2% 22.0%U11 7,342 9,460 28.8% 40.4%

U321 10,688 12,836 20.1% 35.1%N140 41,412 43,903 6.0% 21.1%U129 45,804 46,433 1.4% 20.3%U441 41,092 50,715 23.4% 21.1%

11,880 18,084 52.2% 33.7%407,240 430,895 5.8% 18.3%

U79 7,446 7,940 6.6% 40.2%S13 21,160 21,226 0.3% 27.1%S49 10,732 9,821 -8.5% 35.0%S155 28,520 21,917 -23.2% 24.2%

U41 A 41,514 51,435 23.9% 21.0%I65 86,258 96,578 12.0% 14.0%U41 27,030 40,459 49.7% 24.7%I24 111,780 126,414 13.1% 13.5%

S155 44,288 42,744 -3.5% 20.5%S45 20,434 20,101 -1.6% 27.5%S109 16,634 16,907 1.6% 29.7%U231 6,120 6,119 0.0% 43.3%S25 8,302 8,517 2.6% 38.6%S262 1,644 1,726 5.0% 71.2%S56 2,538 1,957 -22.9% 60.4%S52 5,588 6,769 21.1% 44.8%

439,988 480,630 9.2% 18.3%

Screenline

Total

Tennessee

Total

Cumberland

Screenline Results – River CrossingsScreenline Results – River CrossingsObserved Model Relative Max.

River Route Volume Volume Difference AllowableU70 12,446 8,917 -28.4% 33.1%I40 35,120 36,710 4.5% 22.4%S58 11,426 12,064 5.6% 34.2%S95 8,070 7,876 -2.4% 39.0%S62 33,948 33,962 0.0% 22.7%

U25W 20,534 13,302 -35.2% 27.4%S61 21,580 20,207 -6.4% 26.9%

143,124 133,038 -7.0% 20.2%

I40 62,816 63,839 1.6% 17.5%U70 39,582 39,420 -0.4% 21.4%S92 4,268 7,231 69.4% 49.6%

U25E 21,376 23,531 10.1% 27.0%S56 11,780 7,703 -34.6% 33.8%S66 5,588 6,769 21.1% 44.8%

145,410 148,494 2.1% 20.2%

S66 25,236 25,014 -0.9% 25.4%S92 2,544 4,650 82.8% 60.3%U25 21,534 21,461 -0.3% 26.9%

49,314 51,125 3.7% 33.3%

FrenchBroad

Total

Screenline

Total

Clinch

Total

Holst

RMSE by Vol. Grp.– StatewideRMSE by Vol. Grp.– Statewide

% ROOTNO. OF MEAN

VOLUME VOLUME COUNT SQUAREGROUP RANGE STATIONS ERROR

1 0 - 2500 67 27.2%2 2500 - 5000 77 21.8%3 5000 - 10000 79 15.9%4 10000 -15000 55 35.3%5 15000 - 20000 21 25.4%6 20000 - 30000 43 20.2%7 30000 - 40000 28 18.2%8 40000 - 50000 13 8.8%9 50000+ 13 5.1%

Observed/Model CorrelationObserved/Model Correlation

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0

20

,00

0

40

,00

0

60

,00

0

80

,00

0

10

0,0

00

12

0,0

00

Observed

Mo

de

l

R 2 = 0.969

TrucksTrucksTrucksTrucks Rail CarsRail CarsRail CarsRail Cars

Total FreightTotal FreightMovement FromMovement From

Reebie DataReebie Data

Total FreightTotal FreightMovement FromMovement From

Reebie DataReebie Data

TruckTruck(Tons)(Tons)TruckTruck(Tons)(Tons)

RailRail(Tons)(Tons)RailRail

(Tons)(Tons)

Commodity CategoriesCommodity CategoriesStatewide Freight Model Commodity

Group Commodity Group FlowNo. Name (Annual Tons)

20,600,000

104,500,000

ALL COMMODITY GROUPS 1,279,500,000

34,000,000

Miscellaneous & Container

511,600,000

107,100,000

123,300,000

49,100,000

158,000,000

49,300,000

43,100,000

Manufactured Household & Other

Primary Metal

Waste Materials

Agriculture

Machinery

Paper Products

78,900,000

Petroleum & Minerals

Food Products

Chemicals

Timber & Lumber

2

1

3

4

5

7

8

9

11

6

10

Mode Share By DistanceMode Share By Distance

Total Commodity Shipped by Distance (Truck & Rail)

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Distance (Mile)

Co

mm

od

ity

(To

ns)

Truck

Rail

Commodity Growth (Million Tons)Commodity Growth (Million Tons)

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

Waste

Mate

rials

Timber

& L

umbe

r

Primar

y M

etal

Paper

Pro

duct

Mixe

d Ship

men

t

Mac

hiner

y

House

hold

Goo

ds

Food

Produ

ct

Const

ructi

on &

Min

ing

Chem

icals

Agricu

lture

Pro

duct

Year 2001

Year 2030

Truck and RailTruck and Rail

Commodity Growth (Million Tons)Commodity Growth (Million Tons)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Waste

Mate

rials

Timber

& L

umbe

r

Primar

y M

etal

Paper

Pro

duct

Mixe

d Ship

men

t

Mac

hiner

y

House

hold

Goo

ds

Food

Produ

ct

Const

ructi

on &

Min

ing

Chem

icals

Agricu

lture

Pro

duct

Year 2003

Year 2030

Trucks (78% of Total)Trucks (78% of Total)

2003 Truck Assignment2003 Truck Assignment

2030 Truck Assignment2030 Truck Assignment

2003 Volume-to-Capacity Ratio2003 Volume-to-Capacity Ratio

2030 Volume-to-Capacity Ratio2030 Volume-to-Capacity Ratio

Existing Network

Existing Network

2003 Volumes2003 VolumesExisting Network

2030 Volumes2030 VolumesExisting Network

Documents

A Long-Range Multimodal Strategy