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A global initiative to prevent plastic waste from entering the seas
05 August 2015
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© 2015 Ocean Conservancy
Contents
Overview
Project architecture and roles
Annex: Research approach and key debates
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© 2015 Ocean Conservancy
Leading polymer scientists believe plastics never fully degrade in marine environments
Plastic consumption is growing fast with ocean plastic leakage set to reach unsustainable levels if action is not taken
Plastic is the ultimate single use material and the ocean is the ultimate planetary sink – the status quo will result in 250m m.t of ocean plastic
250
2025
x2
2013
130-150
SOURCE: Jang et al., 2014; Plastics Europe; Ocean Conservancy; Koelmans et al., 2014; Pham et al., 2014; German Umweltbundesamt (2013). Independent Chemical Information Services (ICIS, 2014)
0
2
20
50
Wallboard
Apple core (organics)
400Six pack rings (HDPE)
Polystyrene cup
Plastic bag (LDPE/HDPE)
PET bottle 450
1 Model conservatively assumes 2% of plastic produced is leaked into ocean, although some scientists estimate higher levels
Ocean decay into unrecognizable fragments (in years) Ocean plastic debrisMillion tonnes1
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Beyond, impact on marine life, ocean plastic has numerous economic implications
▪ Fishery challenges
– Missed fishing opportunities
– Toxic contamination of fish and subsequent flows to humans
– Clogged vessel propellers and equipment
▪ Loss in tourism revenue
▪ Costs for beach and waterway clean-ups
▪ Increasing negative plastic stigma potentially leading to negative brand pressure and even de-selection as a packaging material
…with far-reaching economic and ecological consequences
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64
66
73
100
Cetaceans
Fish
Pinnipeds
Seabirds
Sea turtles
Percent of taxa impacted by marine debris1 %
SOURCE: 2012 Convention on Biological Diversity report; press search; Plastic ingestion by planktivorous fishes in the North Pacific Central Gyre; Choy and Drazen 2013, Marine Ecology Progress Series; Beorger et al. 2010, Marine Pollution Bulletin; Davison and Asch 2011, Marine Ecology Progress Series
1 Percent of fish in the pacific central gyre region with ingested plastic
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© 2015 Ocean Conservancy
Affiliates
Ocean Conservancy is leading the largest effort in history to solve this problem, with a broad coalition of industry, governments and NGOs…
Steering Committee
Technical advisors
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Land based
Seabased
100
80-85%
15-20% Congo
Djibouti
Guinea
FinlandMontenegro
Malaysia
Bangladesh
India
Turkey
Pakistan
Burma/Myanmar
Korea, North
IranYemen
SyriaJapan
Papua New Guinea
China
Indonesia
Philippines
Vietnam
Sri Lanka1
Thailand
Hon-duras
Trinidad and
Tobago
Colombia
Guatemala
Cuba
Nicaragua
Fiji
Costa Rica
Guyana
Panama
Chile
Uruguay
Puerto Rico
JamaicaCanada
Saint LuciaGuadeloupe
Aus-tralia
New Zealand
Tonga
Samoa
Micro-nesia
The Gambia
Russia
UK
Spain
Italy
Ger-many
Albania
Nether-lands
France
Bulgaria
Croatia
Portugal
Poland
Georgia
Greece
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Ireland
LatviaNorway
Estonia
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Sudan
Came-roon
Mada-gascar
Togo
SierraLeone
Benin
Mozam-bique
Tan-zaniaNigeriaLibya
Mauri-tius
Liberia
Como-ros
Mexico
Venezuela
Ecuador
DominicanRepublic
El Salvador
Haiti
Argentina
Peru
US
Brazil
South Africa
Algeria
Morocco
Senegal
Tunisia
Cote d'IvoireSomalia
GhanaAngola
Egypt
Mauri-tania
Congo
Eritrea
Solo-mon Islands
VanuatuUk-
raine
We leveraged research published in Science, which quantified leakage sources for the first time…
Oceania (0.08MM)
Size of box indicates
contribution to global
ocean leakage
SOURCE: "Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean" - Jambeck, Geyer, Wilcox, Siegler, Perryman, Andrady, Narayan, Law (as published in Science Magazine, February 2015)
Americas(3.2MM)
Asia(23.6MM)
Africa(4.3MM)
Europe (0.6MM)
Less effective
Most effective
SWM effectiveness
1 Our analysis suggests that the leakage contribution of Sri Lanka is smaller than what was originally estimated
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USA / EU Philippines China / Hong Kong
… 100+ interviews with (plastics) waste management experts and field visits in the Philippines, China and Hong Kong have been made
Good Fuel Group
Implementation phase
…and conducted a holistic study of the drivers and solutions of the problem, pooling the input of 100+ experts
Since the project kickoff in February 2015 …
2021Fall 2015
Spring2016
Feb2015
April/May2015
Design phase Pilot phase Initiative launch phase
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Value2 of plastic waste Collection levels
% of top 5 leakage countries’1 total plastic waste leakage
25
75
CollectedUncollected
1821
61
High(e.g. PET,
HDPE)
Medium(e.g. PS, LDPE)
Low(e.g. PP,
composites)
AVERAGE TOP 5 LEAKAGE COUNTRIES1
Largest source of ocean leakage
1 China, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand2 'Value' is a quantitative function of price at secondary dealers and time taken to collect, combined with a qualitative function of homogeneity and likelihood of
rejection by secondary dealers
SOURCE: Team analysis
Ocean leakage does not stop once waste has been collected
To solve ocean leakage we must tackle 2 key interdependentproblems – uncollected waste and low value waste
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Our analysis quantified leakage and identified its drivers at a country level, based on field work in China and the Philippines (1/2)Flows of plastic waste
Total = 48.1 million tons
18.8 million tons collected
29.3 million tons not collected
40%1 collected 60%1 not collected
18 million tons0.8 million tons (16% of leakage)
25.1 million tons4.2 million tons (84% of leakage)
96% 4% 14% 86%Not leaked
Leaked to ocean Not leaked
Leaked to ocean
Waste piles:Routine use of waterways for plastic waste disposal by rural communities
Littering:personal littering & waste from small river communities which litter directly into waterways
SOURCE: "Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean" - Jambeck, Geyer, Wilcox, Siegler, Perryman, Andrady, Narayan, Law (as published in Science Magazine, February 2015), World Bank, China Environment Statistics Yearbook, team analysis, expert interviews
1 Not including residual waste from imported plastic, estimated at between 1 – 1.5 million metric tonnes per annum2 Based on aggregate of urban and rural waste
Hauler dumping: private hauler companies dump trucks en route to disposal sites to cut costs
Poorly located dumps: Open dump sites
located adjacent to waterways
Ocean plastic leakage
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Our analysis quantified leakage and identified its drivers at a country level, based on field work in China and the Philippines (2/2)Flows of plastic waste
Total = 2.7 million tons
2.27 million tons collected
432K tons not collected
84% collected 16% not collected
1.88 million tons386K tons
(74% of leakage)297K tons
135K tons (26% of leakage)
83% 17% 14% 86%Not leaked
Leaked to ocean Not leaked
Leaked to ocean
Waste piles:Limited or no collection at informal settlements prompt residents to deposit waste at informal sites
Littering:personal littering & waste from small river communities which litter directly into waterways
SOURCE: "Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean" - Jambeck, Geyer, Wilcox, Siegler, Perryman, Andrady, Narayan, Law (as published in Science Magazine, February 2015), World Bank, National Solid Waste Management Commission of the Philippines, Expert interviews, field visits, team analysis
Hauler dumping: private hauler companies dump trucks en route to disposal sites to cut costs
Poorly located dumps: Open dump sites
located adjacent to waterways
Ocean plastic leakage
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▪ Methods were prioritized based on– largest leakage
potential at lowest net cost
– Ease of implementation
– Country relevance
▪ Modeling data was gained from– 22 regional case
studies– 100+ expert
consultations– Due diligence
from entrepreneurial business models
– National data from government authorities
– Secondary research based on published white papers
Reduction / elimination▪ PAYT - Waste disposal fees▪ Material design specifications▪ Product/material bans (bag bans)▪ Resin/product industry fees▪ Extended producer responsibilityCollection▪ Increased collection▪ Street level refuse bins▪ Low value plastic subsidy▪ Drop off centersRecycling▪ Mandatory recycled content within products▪ Mandatory recycling for industry▪ Recycling MRFs (manual/mechanical/optical)▪ Container deposits▪ Advance recycling/disposal fees▪ Consumer recycling campaigns▪ Household separation bins
▪ Waste exchange programsConversion/Treatment▪ Cement Kiln (RDF)▪ Pyrolysis▪ Gasification▪ IncinerationMitigation▪ Close/cover/mine high risk dump sites▪ Haul payment tied to waste drop off points▪ Haul truck monitoring devices▪ Storm water collection traps▪ Littering and dumping fines▪ Sewer outfall trash collection units▪ Trash surface booms/interceptors/out-of-
sea extraction devices▪ Beach community clean-ups▪ Total daily maximum loads▪ Dumpsite fencing▪ Dump site bans for poorly located sites▪ Dump site bans for specific plastics
33 methods were considered
22 methods were modelled
6 methods were selected for portfolio
Initial case study and interview evaluation
Ocean leakage prevention and net cost sizing
evaluation
Final solution
set
OceanPlasticpreventionmethods
Applicability to country context
SOURCE: Team analysis
To do so, we considered numerous ocean plastic prevention methods
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9
8
6
0
-1
-4
-12
And produced the first ever cost curve of potential solutions, measuring their net benefit against their ability to reduce ocean plastic contribution
1 Plastic leakage estimates are not directly additive due to partially overlapping benefits across initiatives
SOURCE: Team analysis
Net benefit per ton leakage reduction, ‘000 USD/ton
Reduction in ocean plastic1, USD tons
Treatment
(1,856)Increased collection service
(197)Drop off waste centres
(106)Sufficient street
refuse bins
(45)Product
fees
(8)PAYT
(103)Bag ban
Collection
(103)Advance disposal fee
(210)Waste exchange program
(15)Container deposits
(210)Low value plastic subsidy
(67)Household separation bins
(406)Recycling system upgrade (manual MRFs + RDFproduction)
(72)Gasification
(201)Inci-ner-ation
(81)Waterway
infrastructure
(841)Close/cover/mine dump sites
(699)Hauler system optimization
(0.25)Beach community clean ups
(30)Dump site bans (on specific plastic types)
(82)Dump site ban (on hazardous dump sites)
(20)Litter fines
MitigationRecyclingElimination
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1 For group of 5 countries
-100
-50
0
1,550
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
-450
-1,750
-1,800
Net benefit per ton leakage reductionUSD/ton
Reduction in ocean plastic‘000 tons
(1,256)Hauler system optimisation
(705)Close and regulate high leakage dumpsites
(1,856)Collection services
(131)Gasification
(364)Incineration
16% reduction in leakage1
25% reduction in leakage1
49% reduction in leakage1
65% reduction in leakage1
(741) Recycling system upgrade (manual MRFs,
RDF production, mandatory,
recycled content)
If these aren’t done first, collected waste keeps leaking
After closing leakage hot spots, focus on dramatic scale-up of the collection systems
Then, focus on creating aftermarkets and/or treatment
Collection
Mitigation
Treatment
SOURCE: ICIS; World Cement; Columbia University; China Environment Statistics Yearbook; 100+ expert interviews; press search; Science Magazine data (Jambeck et al.2015) ; China Today; World Bank; case studies; team analysis
The prioritization results in a net benefit curve based on order of implementation that first closes leakage hotspots, then drives collection, then creates aftermarkets or waste treatment
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Across the top 5 countries, we find that 3 sets of activities constitute the solution to 100% of the problem – these must be undertaken in parallel
SOURCE: Team analysis
Accelerate development of local waste management:▪ Raise collection rates
from 40% to 80%▪ Reduce post
collection leakage from 7% to 1%
Incubate and pilot waste treatment options:▪ Generate revenue to
pay for waste manage-ment improvements
▪ Create commercial counterweight to waste dumping
Re-engineer plastic lifecycle through innovation:▪ Minimize plastic waste
in general▪ Reduce ecological
damage from post-consumer plastic
OC focus
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The first 2 sets of activities can achieve 65% of leakage reduction over 10 years, and sustained improvement can further reduce leakage
SOURCE: McKinsey analysis, ICIS database
Sustained interventionBAU Unsustained intervention
Can we make 2015 the year of peak plastic leakage?
Annual plastic leakage
Million tonnes per annum
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
30
25
20
15
10
5
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Contribute a 6% average premium on real estate for homeowners by relocation adjacent dump sites
Create 350K – 700K jobs through expanded waste collection, treatment and recycling
Secure revenues from eco-tourism, expected to contribute 7% to the growth of tourism in China
Reduce water pollution from dump site leachate, helping to rehabilitate water supplies to important agricultural areas such as the North China Plain
At the same time, this agenda will yield multiple other social and economic benefits
Mitigate spread of 20+ diseases, including hepatitis (on which China spends over $100 billion USD per year)
Healthcare
Water
Economic Development
Tourism
Job creation
SOURCE: McKinsey analysis, 100+ expert interviews, EPA, WHO, World Bank, NECEC, University of Hong Kong, FAO, World Travel and Tourism Council
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To achieve our targeted 65% leakage reduction, we have a holistic action plan ahead of us that must be facilitated by a central co-ordination unit
Obtain explicit Governmentmandates to set ambitious waste management targets
Accelerated on-ground implementation through ‘delivery labs’
Prioritization of the ocean plastic challenge on the global agenda
Consumer education efforts focused on waste minimization and responsible waste disposal
Pave the way for funding and ensure project investment
conditions are in place.
Facilitate knowledge transfer on next-generation plastic
waste treatment technology
Provide “proof of concept”for integrated waste
management in “beta” citiesDesign of an
institutional entity to bring together the
different elements of the campaign
Local Global
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Within an 18 month time frame, this co-ordination unit can achieve against each of the action plan’s cornerstones (2/2)
CONFIDENTIAL
Action plan focus
Prioritization of the ocean plastic challenge on the global agenda
Anchor ocean plastic issue in global monitoring and review process through engagement with Global Ocean Commission, UN, etc.
18 month deliverable
5 delivery labs held in five locations on topics such as:▪ Urban collection▪ Rural collection and waste separation▪ Waterway cleanups▪ Landfill relocation▪ Treatment plant acceleration
Local “proof of concepts” accelerated on-ground implementation through ‘delivery labs’
Integration of global value chain initiatives to achieve plastic waste reduction
Industry commitment for aggressive innovation in packaging
Provide state-of-the-art waste management providers with detailed data on waste composition, pathways, etc.
Facilitate knowledge transfer on next-gen plastic waste treatment technology
Work with industry on innovative mechanism to de-risk waste management project finance investments.Pave the way for funding
National level endorsement of approach, with beta testing of solutions in 1-2 municipalitiesObtain Government mandates at all levels
25% increase in funnel gates (awareness to action) in all 5 countries through mixed campaigns (e.g., town halls, social and mainstream media)
Consumer education efforts focused on waste minimization and responsible waste disposal
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Next steps
▪ Finalize the report
▪ Negotiate APEC commitment (ongoing)
▪ Present at WEF Summer Meeting in Dalian (August)
▪ Launch the report (September)
▪ Present at 'Our Oceans' Conference (October)
▪ Discuss with funders (GEF, WPC, various industrials)
