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A FRAMEWORK FOR PROCESS-DRIVEN RISK
MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
A. CERIĆ
Ph.D. Thesis 2003
Ph.D
. Thesis
A
.CE
RIĆ
2003
A FRAMEWORK FOR PROCESS-DRIVEN RISK
MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
Anita Cerić
Research Institute for the Built & Human Environment
School of Construction and Property Management
University of Salford, Salford, UK
Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements of the
Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, May 2003
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................. i
LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... vii
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS ....................................................................................... x
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................... xii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................... xiii
GLOSSARY OF TERMS ......................................................................................... xiv
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... xv
1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 1
1.1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................. 1
1.2 AIM OF THE RESEARCH ............................................................................. 3
1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ............................................................................ 3
1.4 HYPOTHESIS ................................................................................................. 3
1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ..................................................................... 4
1.6 STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS ..................................................................... 7
1.6.1 CHAPTER 2: RISK MANAGEMENT .................................................... 7
1.6.2 CHAPTER 3: RISK IN CONSTRUCTION ............................................. 7
1.6.3 CHAPTER 4: PROCESS IN CONSTRUCTION .................................... 7
1.6.4 CHAPTER 5: PROCESS PROTOCOL ................................................... 8
1.6.5 CHAPTER 6: IDENTIFYING AND STRUCTURING RISK WITHIN
PROCESS PROTOCOL ............................................................................ 8
1.6.6 CHAPTER 7: FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING RISKS IN
CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS ................................................................. 8
1.6.7 CHAPTER 8: THE PP-Risk MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME ............ 9
1.6.8 CHAPTER 9: APPLICATION AND VERIFICATION OF THE
PROCESS-DRIVEN RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK ............... 9
1.6.9 CHAPTER 10: CONCLUSION AND GUIDELINES FOR FUTURE
WORK........................................................................................................ 9
1.7 SCOPE ........................................................................................................... 10
2 RISK MANAGEMENT ....................................................................................... 11
2.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 11
ii
2.2 RISK, CERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY ............................................... 11
2.3 RISK EXPOSURE ......................................................................................... 13
2.4 RISK ACCEPTABILITY .............................................................................. 14
2.5 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS .............................................................. 15
2.5.1 RISK IDENTIFICATION ........................................................................ 22
2.5.1.1 Brainstorming ................................................................................. 22
2.5.1.2 Interviews ....................................................................................... 22
2.5.1.3 Questionnaires ................................................................................ 23
2.5.1.4 The Delphi technique ..................................................................... 23
2.5.1.5 Expert systems ............................................................................... 24
2.5.2 QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT ............................................................ 24
2.5.3 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS ..................................................... 25
2.5.3.1 Simple assessment .......................................................................... 26
2.5.3.2 Probabilistic analysis ...................................................................... 26
2.5.3.3 Sensitivity analysis ......................................................................... 27
2.5.3.4 Decision trees ................................................................................. 27
2.5.3.5 Monte Carlo Simulation ................................................................. 27
2.5.4 RISK RESPONSE .................................................................................... 28
2.5.4.1 Risk avoidance ............................................................................... 28
2.5.4.2 Risk transfer ................................................................................... 28
2.5.4.3 Risk sharing .................................................................................... 29
2.5.4.4 Risk retention ................................................................................. 29
2.5.4.5 Risk reduction ................................................................................ 29
2.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................ 30
3 RISK IN CONSTRUCTION................................................................................ 31
3.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 31
3.2 DEALING WITH RISK IN CONSTRUCTION ........................................... 31
3.3 CIRIA - A GUIDE TO THE SYSTEMATIC MANAGEMENT OF RISK
FROM CONSTRUCTION..................................................................................... 37
3.4 RISKMAN - RISK-DRIVEN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................. 39
3.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................ 42
iii
4 PROCESS IN CONSTRUCTION ....................................................................... 44
4.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 44
4.2 PROCESS IMPROVEMENT ........................................................................ 44
4.3 PROJECT PHASES ....................................................................................... 47
4.4 RISK AND PROJECT PHASES ................................................................... 51
4.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................ 53
5 PROCESS PROTOCOL ...................................................................................... 54
5.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 54
5.2 THE CONCEPT OF THE PROCESS PROTOCOL ..................................... 56
5.3 STAGE-GATE PROCESS ............................................................................ 58
5.4 PROCESS PROTOCOL STAGES/PHASES ................................................ 60
5.4.1 PRE-PROJECT STAGE .......................................................................... 60
5.4.2 PRE-CONSTRUCTION STAGE ............................................................ 61
5.4.3 CONSTRUCTION STAGE ..................................................................... 61
5.4.4 POST-CONSTRUCTION STAGE .......................................................... 61
5.5 ACTIVITY ZONES ....................................................................................... 61
5.6 PROCESS PROTOCOL MAPS .................................................................... 63
5.7 RISK AND PROCESS PROTOCOL ............................................................ 66
5.8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................ 68
6 IDENTIFYING AND STRUCTURING RISK WITHIN THE PROCESS
PROTOCOL ............................................................................................................... 69
6.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 69
6.2 IDENTIFYING RISK IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS .......................... 69
6.3 RISK IDENTIFICATION BASED ON PROCESS PROTOCOL ................ 72
6.3.1 PHASE ONE – CONCEPTION OF NEED ............................................. 79
6.3.2 PHASE TWO – OUTLINE FEASIBILITY ............................................ 80
6.3.3 PHASE THREE – SUBSTANTIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY &
OUTLINE FINANCIAL AUTHORITY .................................................. 81
6.3.4 PHASE FOUR – OUTLINE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ......................... 82
6.3.5 PHASE FIVE – FULL CONCEPTUAL DESIGN .................................. 83
iv
6.3.6 PHASE SIX – COORDINATED DESIGN, PROCUREMENT & FULL
FINANCIAL AUTHORITY .................................................................... 84
6.3.7 PHASE SEVEN – PRODUCTION INFORMATION ............................ 85
6.3.8 PHASE EIGHT – CONSTRUCTION ..................................................... 86
6.3.9 PHASE NINE – OPERATION & MAINTENANCE ............................. 87
6.4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................ 88
7 A FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING RISKS IN CONSTRUCTION
PROJECTS ................................................................................................................. 89
7.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 89
7.2 THE CYCLICAL RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS ................................. 89
7.3 RISK PRIORITY LIST - QUANTITATIVE APPROACH .......................... 91
7.3.1 RISK PROBABILITY - QUANTITATIVE APPROACH ...................... 91
7.3.2 RISK IMPACT- QUANTITATIVE APPROACH .................................. 93
7.3.3 RISK EXPOSURE- QUANTITATIVE APPROACH ............................. 97
7.4 RISK PRIORITY LIST - QUALITATIVE APPROACH ............................. 98
7.4.1 MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY............................................ 98
7.4.1.1 Risk probability - multi-attribute utility theory ............................ 100
7.4.1.2 Risk impact - multi-attribute utility theory .................................. 102
7.4.1.3 Risk exposure - multi-attribute utility theory ............................... 107
7.4.2 FUZZY ANALYSIS .............................................................................. 108
7.4.2.1 Risk probability - fuzzy analysis .................................................. 109
7.4.2.2 Risk impact - fuzzy analysis ........................................................ 112
7.4.2.3 Risk exposure - fuzzy analysis ..................................................... 116
7.4.3 ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) ..................................... 118
7.4.3.1 Risk probability - AHP ................................................................ 120
7.4.3.2 Risk impact - AHP ....................................................................... 122
7.4.3.3 Risk exposure ............................................................................... 130
7.4.4 CHOOSING A QUALITATIVE APPROACH TECHNIQUE ............. 131
7.5 RISK PRIORITY LIST - MIXED APPROACH ......................................... 137
7.6 RISK ACCEPTABILITY ............................................................................ 138
7.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......................................................... 141
v
8 The PP-RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME ............................................. 143
8.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 143
8.2 PP-RISK AS A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM ...................................... 144
8.2.1 INTERFACE .......................................................................................... 145
8.2.2 DATABASE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ............................................ 146
8.2.3 METHOD MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ................................................ 148
8.2.4 DOCUMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM .......................................... 152
8.2.5 BENEFITS OF THE PP-RISK PROGRAMME.................................... 153
8.3 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......................................................... 153
9 APPLICATION AND VERIFICATION OF THE PROCESS-DRIVEN RISK
MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK .......................................................................... 154
9.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 154
9.2 APPLICATION OF THE PROCESS-DRIVEN RISK MANAGEMENT
FRAMEWORK ............................................................................................ 155
9.2.1 PHASE ZERO – DEMONSTRATING THE NEED ............................. 160
9.2.2 PHASE ONE – CONCEPTION OF NEED ........................................... 161
9.2.3 PHASE TWO – OUTLINE FEASIBILITY .......................................... 162
9.2.4 PHASE THREE – SUBSTANTIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY &
OUTLINE FINANCIAL AUTHORITY ................................................ 163
9.2.5 PHASE FOUR – OUTLINE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ....................... 164
9.2.6 PHASE FIVE – FULL CONCEPTUAL DESIGN ................................ 165
9.2.7 PHASE SIX – COORDINATED DESIGN, PROCUREMENT & FULL
FINANCIAL AUTHORITY .................................................................. 166
9.2.8 PHASE SEVEN – PRODUCTION INFORMATION .......................... 167
9.2.9 PHASE EIGHT – CONSTRUCTION ................................................... 168
9.2.10 PHASE NINE – OPERATION & MAINTENANCE ........................... 169
9.3 VERIFICATION OF PDRMF ..................................................................... 170
9.4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......................................................... 177
10 CONCLUSION AND GUIDELINES FOR FUTURE WORK ......................... 179
10.1 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................... 179
10.1.1 LESSONS LEARNED FOR FUTURE RESEARCH............................ 180
10.1.2 PROVING THE HYPOTHESES ........................................................... 182
vi
10.1.3 CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE ................................................. 183
10.2 FUTURE WORK ......................................................................................... 184
APPENDIX 1: Description of the phases in the construction process
according to the Process Protocol ................................................ 186
APPENDIX 2: The Process Protocol maps ............................................................ 197
APPENDIX 3: The set of SQL commands for creating the database ..................... 224
APPENDIX 4: Application of the Process Driven Risk Management Framework 227
APPENDIX 5: The Questionnaire form used for verification of the framework ... 268
LIST OF REFERENCES ......................................................................................... 272
vii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 6.1: Risk lists ..................................................................................................... 71
Table 7.1: Calculating normalised risk impact in Phase X ......................................... 96
Table 7.2: Calculating normalised risk impact in Phase X in cases when
priorities between time, cost and quality have not been defined ........... 96
Table 7.3: Calcualting risk exposure in Phase X ........................................................ 97
Table 7.4: Priority list in Phase X ............................................................................... 97
Table 7.5: Probability assessment for each alternative with respect to risk
probability ............................................................................................ 100
Table 7.6: Utility function value for risk probability ................................................ 101
Table 7.7: Overall and normalised utility function for risk probability .................... 102
Table 7.8: Impact on time assessment....................................................................... 103
Table 7.9: Impact on cost assessment ....................................................................... 103
Table 7.10: Impact on quality assessment................................................................. 103
Table 7.11: Values of impact on time, cost and quality for discrete values of
utility functions .................................................................................... 104
Table 7.12: Utility function values for the TIME criterion for the corresponding
of each risk ........................................................................................ 105
Table 7.13: Utility function values for the COST criterion for the corresponding
of each risk ........................................................................................ 105
Table 7.14: Utility function values for the QUALITY criterion for the
corresponding of each risk ................................................................ 105
Table 7.15: Overall and normalised utility function for risk impact ........................ 106
Table 7.16: Calculating risk exposure in Phase X .................................................... 107
Table 7.17: Priority list in Phase X ........................................................................... 107
Table 7.18: Value of utility function for risk probability.......................................... 110
Table 7.19: Fuzzy representation of the utility function for risk probability ............ 111
Table 7.20: Overall normalised utility function for risk probability ......................... 111
Table 7.21: Values of the utility function for TIME ................................................. 113
Table 7.22: Fuzzy representation of the utility function for TIME........................... 113
Table 7.23: Values of the utility function for COST ................................................ 113
viii
Table 7.24: Fuzzy representation of the utility function for COST .......................... 114
Table 7.25: Values of the utility function for QUALITY ......................................... 114
Table 7.26: Fuzzy representation of the utility function for QUALITY................... 114
Table 7.27: Overall and normalised utility function for risk impact ........................ 116
Table 7.28: Calculating risk exposure in Phase X .................................................... 116
Table 7.29: Priority list in Phase X - fuzzy analysis ................................................. 117
Table 7.30: Comparative matrix for risk probability in Phase X .............................. 121
Table 7.31: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max , row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for risk probability
in Phase X ............................................................................................ 122
Table 7.32: Comparative time, cost and quality matrix in Phase X .......................... 124
Table 7.33: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max , row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for time, cost and
quality interdependency in Phase X ..................................................... 124
Table 7.34: Comparative matrix for risk impact on time for Phase X ...................... 125
Table 7.35: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max , row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for risk impact on
time in Phase X .................................................................................... 125
Table 7.36: Comparative matrix for risk impact on cost in Phase X ........................ 126
Table 7.37: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max , the row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for risk impact on
cost in Phase X ..................................................................................... 127
Table 7.38: Comparative matrix for risk impact on quality for Phase X .................. 127
Table 7.39: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max, row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for risk impact on
quality in Phase X ................................................................................ 128
Table 7.40: Calculating impact in Phase X ............................................................... 129
Table 7.41: Calculating risk exposure in Phase X .................................................... 130
Table 7.42: Priority list in Phase X ........................................................................... 130
Table 7.43: Comparative time, cost and quality matrix in Phase X. ......................... 134
Table 7.44: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for risk impact on time, cost
and quality for two risks ....................................................................... 135
Table 7.45: Risk impact on time, cost and quality for two risks ............................... 135
ix
Table 7.46: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for risk impact on time, cost
and quality for three risks ..................................................................... 136
Table 7.47: Risk impact on time, cost and quality for three risks ............................. 137
Table 7.48: Risk evaluation depending on risk exposure ......................................... 138
Table 7.49: Risk acceptability for Phase X - quantitative approach ......................... 140
Table 7.50: Risk acceptability in Phase X - qualitative approach ............................ 140
Table 9.1: Results of risk analysis for Phase 0.......................................................... 160
Table 9.2: Result of risk analysis for Phase 1 ........................................................... 161
Table 9.3: Result of risk analysis for Phase 2 ........................................................... 162
Table 9.4: Results of risk analysis for Phase 3.......................................................... 163
Table 9.5: Result of risk analysis for Phase 4 ........................................................... 164
Table 9.6: Results of risk analysis for Phase 5.......................................................... 165
Table 9.7: Results of risk analysis for Phase 6.......................................................... 166
Table 9.8: Result of risk analysis in Phase 7 ............................................................. 167
Table 9.9: Result of risk analysis for Phase 8 ........................................................... 168
Table 9.10: Results of risk analysis in Phase 9 ......................................................... 169
x
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1.1: Research methodology map........................................................................ 6
Figure 2.1: Linear risk management process, Perry and Hayes (1985) ...................... 16
Figure 2.2: Cyclical risk management process, Carter et al. (1994) ........................... 17
Figure 2.3: Cyclical risk management process, Kliem and Ludin (1997) .................. 17
Figure 2.4: Cyclical risk management process, Baker,Ponniah and Smith (1998) ..... 18
Figure 2.5: Generic risk management process, Chapman (1997) ............................... 19
Figure 2.6: Cyclical risk management process, Grammer and Trollope (1993) ......... 20
Figure 2.7: Proposed cyclical risk management process ............................................ 21
Figure 5.1: Stage-gate process (Cooper, 1990) ........................................................... 58
Figure 5.2: Third generation new product development process (Cooper, 1994) ...... 59
Figure 6.1: Development of sub-processes ................................................................. 74
Figure 7.1: Risk list for Phase X with the corresponding designations ...................... 90
Figure 7.2: Normalised or relative probabilities for the occurrence of each risk
in Phase X .............................................................................................. 92
Figure 7.3: Normalised impact of time, cost and quality on the project ..................... 93
Figure 7.4: Normalised risk impact on time in Phase X ............................................. 94
Figure 7.5: Normalised risk impact on cost in Phase X .............................................. 95
Figure 7.6: Normalised risk impact on quality in Phase X ......................................... 95
Figure 7.7: Hierarchical model structure .................................................................. 118
Figure 7.8: Hierarchical structure for risk probability in Phase X ............................ 121
Figure 7.9: Hierarchical structure for risk impact in Phase X .................................. 123
Figure 8.1: Structure of decision support system ...................................................... 144
Figure 8.2: Main menu .............................................................................................. 146
Figure 8.3: Database structure with its tables, fields and links ................................. 148
Figure 8.4: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for risk probability obtained by
PP-Risk ................................................................................................. 149
Figure 8.5: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for time, cost and quality
obtained by PP-Risk ............................................................................. 149
Figure 8.6: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for impact on TIME obtained
by PP-Risk ............................................................................................ 150
xi
Figure 8.7: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for impact on COST obtained
by PP-Risk ............................................................................................ 150
Figure 8.8: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for impact on QUALITY
obtained by PP-Risk ............................................................................. 151
Figure 8.9: Overall risk impact obtained by PP-Risk ............................................... 151
Figure 8.10: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk .................. 152
Figure 9.1: Zagreb-Macelj road map ........................................................................ 156
Figure 9.2: Example of a form for the qualitative approach in Phase 0.................... 159
Figure 9.3: Risk exposure in Phase 0 ........................................................................ 160
Figure 9.4: Risk exposure in Phase 1 ........................................................................ 161
Figure 9.5: Risk exposure in Phase 2 ........................................................................ 162
Figure 9.6: Risk exposure in Phase 3 ........................................................................ 163
Figure 9.7: Risk exposure in Phase 4 ........................................................................ 164
Figure 9.8: Risk exposure in Phase 5 ........................................................................ 165
Figure 9.9: Risk exposure in Phase 6 ........................................................................ 166
Figure 9.10: Risk exposure in Phase 7 ...................................................................... 167
Figure 9.11: Risk exposure in Phase 8 ...................................................................... 168
Figure 9.12: Risk exposure in Phase 9 ...................................................................... 169
xii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to express my deep gratitude to:
Prof. Peter Brandon for his supervison, guidance, support and the person who made
this thesis possible.
Prof. Mariza Katavić for her advice and support.
Colleagues from following companies who have helped in testing the framework:
Croatian Civil Engineering Institute
Croatin Motorway Company
Rijeka-Zagreb Motorway Company
Prof. Ghassan Aouad and Prof. Les Ruddock who helped me "to survive" my early
days in Salford and for always believing in me and my work.
Prof. Rachel Cooper and her team, especially to Mr Norman Gilkinson, Process
Network co-ordinator who provided me with information, data and papers on the
Process Protocol.
Ms Hanneke Van Dijk and Ms Sandra Heyworth from the School of Construction
and Property Management for their assistance.
xiii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process
BPF British Property Federations
CDM Construction (Design and Management) Regulations
CIRIA Construction Industry Research and Information Association
CPR Construction Process Re-Engineering
DAO Data Access Objects
DBMS Data Based Management System
DDL Data Definition Language
DML Data Manipulation Language
DMS Document Management System
DSS Decision Support System
EPSRC Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council
ITA International Tunnel Association
JCT Joint Contracts Tribunal
MMS Method management system
PDRM Process - Driven Risk Management
PP-Risk Process Protocol - Risk
RAMP Risk Analysis and Management for Projects
RIBA Royal Institution of British Architects
RISKMAN A Risk-Driven Project Management Methodology
SPICE Structured Process Improvement for Construction Enterprises
SQL Structured Query Language
xiv
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Activity Zones: Structured set of sub-processes involving tasks which
guide and support work towards a common objective (for
example, to create an appropriate design solution).
Alternatives: The candidates, or options from which the choice is to be
made.
Contingency Planning: Preparing to handle a given circumstance that may arise in
the future.
Criterion: A factor that influences a decision.
Decision Making: Determining the appropriate action to accomplish goals
efficiently and effectively.
Hierarchy: A tree-like structure. It can be used to represent the spread
of influence.
Legacy Archive: Potentially an IT solution it represents a mechanism for
recording, storing and retrieving project/process
information which can be used by project participants in
current and future projects.
Pairwise comparisons: The process of making comparison between all alternatives
of the same criterion, or all criterion of the goal, taken in
pairs.
Stakeholders: Those persons or organizations whose views, interests
and/or requirements can have an impact or are impacted by
the initiation and/or formulation and eventual
implementation of the project solution.
xv
ABSTRACT
This thesis describes the development of a framework for a systematic approach to
risk management in construction projects, whose application in construction practice
would lead to changes and improvements in the construction industry. To verify and
apply the framework in future construction projects, the author developed the PP-
Risk computer programme as IT support.
Before showing how the framework was developed, there is a survey of what has
been written on the subject and a systematic analysis of risk management, risk in
construction and process in construction. This led to the conclusion that realising a
construction project is a process and that the risk management process should be
subordinated to the construction process. A new approach was therefore introduced
to managing risks: process-driven risk management. This approach will give all the
participants in the project better understanding of the construction process, enable
changes in the construction industry, and contribute to improvement of quality and
efficiency in construction.
An analysis of published plans of work showed that the Construction Process
Protocol, developed at the University of Salford under the leadership of Professor
R.Cooper, is suitable and appropriate as a construction process in which the
framework for process-driven risk management can be placed.
Process-driven risk management implies a cyclical risk management process in all
the phases through which the construction project passes according to Process
Protocol. Key risks are identified in the framework, which are independent of the
size, type and purpose of the project being realized. Project related risks should be
separately identified for each specific project. Depending on available data,
quantitative and qualitative analysis is carried out for the identified risks, their risk
probability and risk impact determined, and the corresponding risk exposure
calculated. Then the adequate risk response is given for each identified risk,
depending on its exposure. As the process unfolds new risks appear in each phase
and the risk management process begins a new.
Chapter 1
Introduction
1
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
The construction industry has many specific features and is inert, because of which it
lags behind other industries in keeping to deadlines and realising production with
minimum expenses and satisfactory quality, in other words, in developing an
efficient production process (Latham, 1994; Egan, 1998; Egan, 2002). The
development of construction as an industry depends on improving process in
construction (Hammer and Champy, 1993; Love and Li, 1998; Kagioglou, Cooper
and Aouad, 1999; Finnemore et al., 2000; Holt, Love and Nesan, 2000).
Every construction project passes through phases, each of which has a purpose,
duration and scope of work. Breaking the project down into phases is an important
part of every construction process. The project must start from some kind of
definition of need, after which follow design, contracting, construction and project
completion (Huges, 2000). Risk and uncertainty are inherent in all the phases
through which the construction project passes, from Demonstrating the Need do
Operation and Maintenance. Latham (1994) said that no construction project is risk
free. Risk can be managed, minimised, shared, transferred or accepted. It cannot be
ignored. Risks do not appear only in major projects. Although size may be a cause of
risk, complexity, construction speed, site and many other factors that affect time, cost
and quality to a greater or lesser degree cannot be overlooked. All the participants in
the deciding process should observe risks and their effects on all key points of
decision-making before and during project realisation.
Process in construction needs important changes and should be continuously
improved. The process itself, and the changes and improvements made to it, are
accompanied by risks whose adverse effects may increase planned costs and the time
necessary for project completion, and decrease execution quality. Efficient and
quality management of risks should make these changes in the construction industry
possible and enhance quality and efficiency. The Process Protocol developed by
R.Cooper et al. provides a structure for managing risk in construction projects.
Chapter 1
Introduction
2
Process Protocol is used to manage the project from Recognition of a Need to
Operation and Maintenance and is basically a generic process. It is a result of a
research project at the University of Salford headed by Professor R.Cooper in
cooperation with several companies which were in various ways included in the
construction industry (Cooper et al., 1998; Kagioglou et al. 1998a.; Kagioglou et al.,
1998b; Kagioglou et al., 1998c; Aouad et. al,, 1998; Kagioglou, Cooper and Aouad,
1999; Wu, Aouad and Cooper, 2000; Fleming et al., 2000; Lee, Cooper and Aouad;
2000; Wu et al., 2001). Chapter 5 explains the reasons why the Process Protocol was
chosen as the basis for the proposed framework in this thesis.
Changes may be brought to the construction industry through improved risk
management in several ways. One possibility is to study the causes of risks, their
probability and their impact on time, cost and quality for a particular type and size of
facility. In this case it is possible to muster the help of experts in that field, to identify
the risks in all the phases of the project life cycle in great detail, to use a large
database compiled from prior experiences on similar facilities, and to propose the
most adequate risk response. Another is to improve risk management developing
quantitative and qualitative risk analysis techniques and use them in particular phases
of the project life cycle. Finally, risk management may be improved by developing a
decision support system under conditions of uncertainty, which would considerably
decrease the risk of poor risk management.
The above approaches to improved risk management are partial solutions with
limited applicability. This research starts from the fact that executing a construction
project is a process and risk management should be adapted to this process.
Risk management is a continuous process needing an integral risk management
system in all the phases that the construction project passes through, which is
accomplished by developing a framework for process-driven risk management. The
framework should be generic by nature and bring together all the above approaches
to improve risk management. It is necessary to identify the key risks that appear in
all the phases through which the construction project passes, regardless of the type
and size of the facility. Risk analysis depends on the quality of the data available, so
Chapter 1
Introduction
3
the system should include both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. Risk
response should be continuously developed on the basis of what has been learned in
earlier cases, but it is also necessary to allow changes to take place in the
construction industry.
1.2 AIM OF THE RESEARCH
The primary aim of this research is to develop a framework that will provide a
systematic process-driven approach for managing risk in construction, from the
beginning of the project to operation and maintenance. Moreover, if companies adopt
this approach as an integral part of managing projects it will enable the project
management team to monitor improvement in construction performance.
1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
The objectives of this research are :
To investigate how to deal with risks and uncertainties in each phase of the project.
To investigate and assess key-risks in each phase of the project.
To suggest risk response for identified key-risks.
To identify and develop a suitable framework and IT support for implementing
process-driven risk management.
To implement and test the proposed framework using a real case which will
demonstrate the benefit of the proposed framework.
1.4 HYPOTHESIS
A framework for managing risk in construction projects, based on the Process
Protocol developed by Cooper et al., is an improvement on current construction
project practice.
Improvement can be recognised in:
Chapter 1
Introduction
4
1. Better understanding of the construction process by all participants in
project realisation.
2. Identifying the key risks in every phase of the construction process that
are independent of the size, type and purpose of the facility.
3. Enabling a combination of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment
from Demonstrating the Need to Operation and Maintenance.
4. Introducing a new approach to risk management by placing it in the
function of the construction process, i.e., by implementing process-driven
risk management.
1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The research was carried out in five phases:
Phase I - Literature review
The first step was to systematically review earlier writings so as to learn more about
the subject and about different approaches to connecting risk management with the
construction process as a basis for developing an integral system for managing risk in
construction projects. The knowledge gathered about Risk management is presented
in Chapter 2, Risk in Construction in Chapter 3, Process in Construction in Chapter 4
and Process Protocol in Chapter 5.
Phase II - Identifying and structuring risk within Process Protocol
Each Process Protocol phase is divided into sub-processes, activities that should be
performed during the phase. A systematic analysis of the division helped identify and
describe the key risks that appear in all construction projects, regardless of size or
type.
Phase III - Developing a framework for managing risk in construction projects
The results of Phase I and Phase II served as a foundation for developing a
framework for managing risk in the construction project. The framework provides
holistic risk assessment from Demonstrating the Need to Operation and Maintenance.
Chapter 1
Introduction
5
After determining risk probability and risk impact, and thus also risk exposure, for
each identified key risk or project related risk, a priority risk list is formed and,
depending on risk acceptability, a strategy of risk response. If risk response leads to
the appearance of new risks, a new cycle of identification, analysis and risk response
begins.
Phase IV - Developing an IT Support for the proposed framework
In this phase an integral decision support system was developed, the PP-Risk
computer programme, which supports all the elements of the framework for process-
driven risk management developed in the preceding phase.
Phase V - Application and Verification of the process-driven risk management
framework
The last phase shows the application and verification of the proposed process-driven
risk management framework using the PP-Risk computer programme developed in
the preceding phase.
Figure 1.1 shows the research methodology map.
Chapter 1
Introduction
6
Figure 1.1: Research methodology map
Iden
tify
ing a
nd s
truct
uri
ng r
isk w
ithin
Pro
cess
Pro
toco
l
Process in Construction
Process Protocol
Risk Management
Risk in Construction
Literature review
Dev
elopin
g a
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mew
ork
for
man
agin
g r
isk
in c
on
stru
ctio
n p
roje
cts
Dev
elopin
g a
n I
T S
upport
for
pro
pose
d f
ram
ewo
rk
Appli
cati
on a
nd V
erif
icat
ion o
f pro
cess
-dri
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ris
k m
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amew
ork
Chapter 1
Introduction
7
1.6 STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS
This thesis consists of 10 chapters, including this one. The contents of the other
chapters are as follows:
1.6.1 CHAPTER 2: RISK MANAGEMENT
The first part of the chapter defines and explains the concepts of risk, certainty,
uncertainty, risk exposure and risk acceptability. The second part analyses several
risk management processes, and shows and gives a detailed explanation of the
development of cyclical risk management, which will be part of the framework for
managing risks in construction projects that is proposed in this work.
1.6.2 CHAPTER 3: RISK IN CONSTRUCTION
This chapter shows research on risk management in construction that had an
influence on the development of the framework proposed in this work. It showes two
integral but different approaches to systematic risk management in construction, the
CIRIA Guide to the Systematic Management of Risk from Construction and the
RISKMAN as a Risk-driven Project Management Methodology. It shows the need
for a new approach to managing risks as part of the construction process. This kind
of approach is implemented in the framework for risk management in construction
proposed in this work.
1.6.3 CHAPTER 4: PROCESS IN CONSTRUCTION
This chapter shows research into process in construction and its specific features in
relation to process in other industries, which make it more difficult to introduce
changes that would lead to continuous process improvement. It shows that the
process in construction, and changes and improvements that are made to it, are
accompanied by risks inherent in the process itself. If the risk management process
becomes part of the construction process any improvements in risk management will
automatically lead to process improvement. The framework for risk management in
Chapter 1
Introduction
8
construction proposed in this work hinges on process-driven risk management and
the risk management process is completely subjected to the construction process.
1.6.4 CHAPTER 5: PROCESS PROTOCOL
This chapter shows the concept and principles underlying the Construction Process
Protocol as a generic construction process and as a plan of work that makes it
possible to manage the project from Demonstrating the Need to Operation and
Maintenance. It shows the advantages of Process Protocol as an industry standard,
which is why it was chosen as the construction process for the development of the
proposed framework for process-driven risk management.
1.6.5 CHAPTER 6: IDENTIFYING AND STRUCTURING RISK WITHIN
PROCESS PROTOCOL
This chapter shows the identification of the key risks in all phases through which the
construction project passes according to Process Protocol. The process of
identification starts from the fact that every phase the project passes through contains
sub-processes, elementary activities that should be performed for the successful
realisation of that project phase. These activities are a source of risk and can be used
as the basis for making a list of key risks in each phase. The key risks are part of the
proposed framework. The management of key risks identified in this way is in the
service of the construction process, and leads to the better understanding of process
and process improvement.
1.6.6 CHAPTER 7: FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING RISKS IN
CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
This chapter shows the development of the framework for process-driven risk
management in construction projects. The framework contains the cyclical risk
management process shown in Chapter 2, the approach to risk management shown in
Chapter 3, process-driven risk management shown in Chapter 4, and is based on the
Construction Process Protocol shown in Chapter 5. It contains the list of key risks
Chapter 1
Introduction
9
identified in Chapter 6 and enables the identification of project related risks in every
phase. The chapter also shows various approaches to forming the risk priority list.
1.6.7 CHAPTER 8: THE PP-RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME
This chapter shows the PP-Risk computer programme as a Decision Support System
developed by the author for the proposed framework for risk management in Process
Protocol based construction projects. The program is made in MS Visual Basic 6 on
a Microsoft Windows platform.
1.6.8 CHAPTER 9: APPLICATION AND VERIFICATION OF THE
PROCESS-DRIVEN RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
This chapter tests and verifies the proposed framework on the example of the future
Sveta tri kralja tunnel planned as part of the future Zagreb-Macelj Motorway, that
will connect the capital of the Republic of Croatia with the Republic of Slovenia.
Eighteen experts, who had in various ways significantly participated in the execution
of similar projects in the past and who are expected to significantly participate in
future projects, helped verify the efficiency and applicability of the proposed
framework and the PP-Risk computer programme.
1.6.9 CHAPTER 10: CONCLUSION AND GUIDELINES FOR FUTURE
WORK
This chapter gives the conclusion of the thesis and recommendations for future
research.
Chapter 1
Introduction
10
1.7 SCOPE
The proposed framework for process-driven risk management can be applied to all
kinds of construction projects regardless of their size or type. The proposed approach
to risk management may also be extended to other industries if the plan of work is
adapted to their production process. Risk management is often limited by the non-
existence of a relevant, statistically significant database about similar past projects,
which could be used for quantitative analysis of the identified risks. The proposed
framework, through the PP-Risk computer programme developed, enables the
formation and updating of such a database that would be accessible to all, and at the
same time provides for qualitative risk analysis if no such database is available.
Chapter 2
Risk management
11
2 RISK MANAGEMENT
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The first part of this chapter defines and explains the basic concepts connected to risk
management, such as risk, certainty, uncertainty, risk exposure and risk acceptability.
These concepts are not linked only to risk management in the construction industry,
they are part of the conditions and circumstances of the decision-making process as
such. People make decisions every day, in private life, in all kinds of business
organisations, fields of industry, and on all levels of the business cycle. It could
easily be said that human life is one endless sequence of decision-making. Most
simple decisions are reached spontaneously without much thought and analysis.
However, a certain number of complex, even very complex decisions depends on the
systematic study of many factors of influence, adequate and quality information,
choosing among numerous alternatives, and using suitable models and techniques for
choosing the optimum, i.e. the most favourable alternative.
The second part of the chapter analyses the role of process in risk management and
the role of risk management in project management. It gives an analysis of several
published risk management processes that served as a foundation for the
development of the cyclical risk management process, which will be part of the
framework for managing risks in construction projects that is proposed in this work.
2.2 RISK, CERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY
Decision-making occurs under conditions of certainty, risk or uncertainty. Certainty
is a condition in which all the factors of influence can be quantified and where the
use of adequate decision-making methods results in an exactly predictable outcome.
This happens very rarely and is met only in closed systems. Construction practically
never runs under conditions of certainty.
Chapter 2
Risk management
12
If two or more alternatives are to be decided among, in which all the factors of
influence cannot be quantified, then decision-making occurs under conditions of risk
or uncertainty. A decision is made under conditions of risk if the decision-maker is
able to assess rationally or intuitively, with a degree of certainty, the probability that
a particular event will take place, using as a basis his information about similar past
events or his personal experience. An example for deciding under conditions of risk
is a cost estimate for the foundations of a structure made prior to research defining
the load on the foundations. This estimate can be made, with a degree of certainty or
a degree of risk, on the basis of existing information about similar structures built
under similar ground conditions and on the basis of the estimator’s experience. If
there is no such information, and if the estimator has no experience with similar
structures and ground conditions, then decisions are made under conditions of
uncertainty. Risk, therefore, becomes uncertainty when sufficient information or
experience to make a mathematical model and predict the probable result are not
available.
One of the basic roles of modern businesses management is to maximally reduce the
probability of risk, i.e. to gather sufficient information or experience to turn
uncertainty into risk and make it easier to reach a decision.
The Oxford Dictionary of Current English defines risk as a chance or possibility of
loss or adverse consequences. Chapman and Cooper (1983) define risk as exposure
to the possibility of economic or financial loss or gains, physical damage or injury or
delay as a consequence of the uncertainty associated with pursuing a course of
action. Wideman (1986) defines risk as a chance of certain occurrences adversely
affecting project objectives. It is the degree of exposure to negative events, and their
probable consequences. Godfrey (1996) defines risk as a chance of an adverse event,
depending on circumstances. Kliem and Ludin (1997) define risk as the occurrence
of an event that has consequences for, or impacts on, projects. According to Smith
(1999), risk exists when a decision is expressed in terms of a range of possible
outcomes and when known probabilities can be attached to the outcomes.
Chapter 2
Risk management
13
2.3 RISK EXPOSURE
Common to all the above definitions of risk is that it includes two independent
components: risk probability and risk impact. Both these components should be
quantified if different risks are to be analysed, compared and classified.
In the exact mathematical sense risk probability, i.e. the probability of an adverse
event, is a random variable with its own probability distribution, and statistical
methods can be used to calculate the probability of the event, mean, dispersion,
confidence interval and all the other statistically significant parameters. This
demands an extensive and statistically relevant database about similar past events on
which to base the probability distribution. In practice this is very difficult to achieve
because relevant databases exist for a very small number of potentially risky events.
When there is no relevant database to draw from, risk is determined subjectively on
the basis of available information and greatly depends on the experience and
knowledge of the manager who assesses probability. If there is sufficient information
probability is usually estimated at a numerical value between 0 and 1. If there is little
or very little information risk probability is verbally assessed as low, medium or
high.
Risk can impact a project in various ways. It can adversely affect planned expenses,
project duration and project quality. In the final issue both longer duration and
quality loss may be expressed through increased expenses. If there is enough
information risk impact can be calculated. But in practice it is often impossible to
calculate risk impact quantitatively so a qualitative appraisal is made estimating the
impact as a low, medium or high.
Risk quantification should reflect both the above components, either quantitative or
qualitative. This is done by introducing risk exposure, which is the product of risk
probability and risk impact: risk exposure = risk probability x risk impact (Carter et
al., 1994).
Chapter 2
Risk management
14
Risk exposure has no importance in the case of a single risk. If only one risk was
analysed in a particular project phase, it would be enough to calculate its probability
and its impact on the project. However, if two or more risks may occur risk exposure
can be used to compare them and decide about how to respond to each of them.
An example of determining priorities among three risks will be used to show how
risk managers use risk exposure to reach decisions.
Three risks shall be analysed: R1, R2 and R3.
R1 has 0.1 probability and ₤10,000 impact.
The exposure for risk R1 is 0.1x10,000 = 1,000.
R2 has 0.02 probability and ₤50,000 impact.
The exposure for risk R2 is 0.02x50,000 = 1,000.
R3 has 0.7 probability and ₤2,000 impact.
The exposure for risk R3 is 0.7 x 2,000 = 1,400.
Risks R1 and R2 have different probabilities and impacts but the same exposure.
Risk R3 has a high probability but a relatively low impact. Risk R3 has the highest
exposure and will have top priority in determining risk response.
2.4 RISK ACCEPTABILITY
Depending on the level of risk exposure, risks are classed as unacceptable,
undesirable, acceptable or negligible, and a plan is made about how to manage each
one. Godfrey (1996) suggested risk categories and the appropriate way of managing
each category:
UNACCEPTABLE - Intolerable, must be eliminated or transferred.
UNDESIRABLE - To be avoided if reasonably practicable, detailed
investigation and cost benefit justification required, top level
approval needed, monitoring essential.
ACCEPTABLE - Can be accepted provided the risk is managed.
NEGLIGIBLE - No further consideration needed.
Chapter 2
Risk management
15
For each project a decision can be made to link a certain level of risk exposure with a
particular category, and thus also with the proposed plan for risk management.
If the risk probability has been qualitatively assessed as improbable, remote,
occasional, probable and frequent (Godfrey, 1996) and the risk impact as negligible,
marginal, serious, critical and catastrophic the acceptability of each risk can be
assessed independently of any others.
This may be as follows (Godfrey, 1996):
frequent probability and catastrophic impact = unacceptable risk.
probable probability and critical impact = unacceptable risk.
occasional probability and serious impact = undesirable risk.
remote probability and marginal impact = acceptable risk.
improbable probability and negligible impact = negligible risk.
2.5 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Risk management is a discipline for living with the possibility that future events may
cause adverse effects (Flanagan and Norman, 1993). In the global sense, risk
management is the process that, when carried out, ensures that all that can be done
will be done to achieve the objective of the project, within the constraints of the
project (Clark, Pledger and Needler, 1990). The basic goal of project management is
to realise the project within the predicted time, planned costs and satisfactory quality.
Contrary to this is project realisation under conditions of uncertainty, and when the
outcomes of all foreseen events cannot be predicted with certainty. This is what
makes it necessary to turn uncertainty into risk, and to manage that risk.
The management of risk is a continuous process and should span all the phases of
the project (Smith, 1999). Risks and their effects should be observed on all the key
sites of decision-making throughout the project and by all the participants in the
decision-making process. All through the project’s life cycle it is necessary to
continuously identify causes that may have a detrimental effect on the project,
analyse their possible adverse consequences and prepare a response to them. The
Chapter 2
Risk management
16
investor and his project manager have the greatest responsibility for identifying risks,
analysing them and responding to them. Project managers should do all they can to
realise the project, undertaking activities that decrease or eliminate the effects of risk
or uncertainty. Thus risk management is inseparable from project management and
cannot be viewed as a separate activity.
The risk management process may consist of elements more or less closely
connected. According to Perry and Hayes (1985), the risk management process
consists of three phases (see Fig. 2.1):
1. risk identification;
2. risk analysis;
3. risk response.
Figure 2.1: Linear risk management process, Perry and Hayes (1985)
During the project’s entire life cycle, qualitative or quantitative analysis are carried
out for every identified risk and an adequate response prepared. This kind of process
is linear by nature and is a good starting point for successful risk management.
However, any activity undertaken as a risk response may produce new risks, which
should be in their turn be identified, analysed and responded to. Thus some authors
view risk management as a cyclical process.
According to Carter et al. (1994), the risk management process consists of 6 phases
that cyclically repeat themselves (see Fig. 2.2):
1. Risk identification and documentation;
2. Risk quantification and classification;
3. Risk modelling (often called risk analysis);
4. Risk reporting and strategy development;
RISK
IDENTIFICATION
RISK
ANALYSIS
RISK
RESPONSE
Chapter 2
Risk management
17
5. Risk mitigation, reduction and/or optimisation;
6. Risk monitoring and control.
Figure 2.2: Cyclical risk management process, Carter et al. (1994)
Kliem and Ludin (1997) divided the risk management process into 4 phases
(see Fig 2.3):
1. Risk identification;
2. Risk analysis;
3. Risk control;
4. Risk reporting.
Figure 2.3: Cyclical risk management process, Kliem and Ludin (1997)
Chapter 2
Risk management
18
Baker, Ponniah and Smith (1998) divided the risk management process into 5 phases
(see Fig. 2.4):
1. Risk identification;
2. Risk estimation;
3. Risk evaluation;
4. Risk response;
5. Risk monitoring.
Figure 2.4: Cyclical risk management process, Baker, Ponniah and Smith (1998)
Chapman (1997) suggested the generic risk management process divided in 9 phases
(see Fig. 2.5):
1. Define;
2. Focus;
3. Identify;
4. Structure;
5. Ownership;
6. Estimate;
7. Evaluate;
8. Plan;
9. Manage.
Chapter 2
Risk management
19
Figure 2.5: Generic risk management process, Chapman (1997)
Grammer and Trollope (1993) realised the cyclical risk management process divided
in 5 phases (see Fig. 2.6):
1. Identify risks;
2. Analyse risks;
3. Reduce risks;
4. Plan against and manage risks;
5. Review risks;
Define
Focus
Identify
Structure
Ownership
Estimate
Evaluate
Plan
Manage
Chapter 2
Risk management
20
Figure 2.6: Cyclical risk management process, Grammer and Trollope (1993)
The continuation will show in detail all the elements of the cyclical risk management
process proposed in this work, which served as the basis for the proposed framework
for managing risks throughout the project’s life cycle (see fig. 2.7).
Step 1:
Identify risks
Step 2:
Analyse risks
Step 3:
Reduce risks
Step 4:
Plan against and
manage risks
Step 5:
Review risks
Find and defined risks
Decide the probability of risks
happening
Assess likely impact of the
risks
Take immediate action to
address key risks
Create a risk reduction plan for
ongoing key risks-business
MD/GM
needs to underwrite this plan
Review and update risk
management plans throughout
the lifecycle
Chapter 2
Risk management
21
Figure 2.7: Proposed cyclical risk management process
The proposed cyclical risk management process basically contains the same elements
as the published risk management processes that are shown, and is adapted to
computer programming. The process begins by risk identification, followed by
qualitative or quantitative assessment of risk probability and risk impact, and
calculation of the corresponding risk exposure. Depending on the value of risk
exposure a decision is made about risk acceptability, which serves as the basis for
one of the methods of risk response. The application of risk response is followed by
risk monitoring, and if new risks appear the process returns to the beginning, that is,
to their identification.
Risk Identification
Qualitative or Quantitative Risk Assessment
Risk is unacceptable Risk is undesirable Risk is acceptable Risk is negligible
Avoid risk
Transfer risk
Avoid risk
Transfer risk
Share risk
Reduce risk
Retain risk
Risk monitoring
Ignore risk
Chapter 2
Risk management
22
2.5.1 RISK IDENTIFICATION
Risk management always starts with risk identification, which may be considered the
most important phase of the risk management process (Baker, Ponniah and Smith,
1998). Its purpose is to compile a list of risks important for a particular project. To
form this list, it is first necessary to research the potential sources of risk, adverse
events that include risk, and the unfavourable effects of an undesirable scenario. For
example, weather is a source of risk, extremely bad weather is an adverse event, and
its effect is work running behind schedule due to extremely bad weather conditions.
Risk identification greatly depends on the manager’s experience. If his experience
with particular methods and techniques of risk identification is good he will continue
to use them, whereas bad experience leads to avoiding approaches prepared earlier.
Managers use various techniques for risk identification, the best-known of which are:
brainstorming, interviews, questionnaires, Delphi technique, expert systems, etc.
2.5.1.1 Brainstorming
Brainstorming is a meaningful and open discussion in which participants discuss
their views on possible sources of risk in the project, on how uncertainty is
manifested and how to turn it into risk, on risk probability, on potential risk impact,
and on possible risk responses (Smith, 1999). The project or risk manager usually
chairs the discussion and success greatly depends on his experience in conducting
discussions of this kind. This method is efficient and often results in a very
comprehensive risk list. A problem may be the participation of a very authoritarian
and domineering personality who dominates others and imposes his stands. The
number of participants is also important because discussions with a large number of
participants become inefficient and long-lasting.
2.5.1.2 Interviews
The interview is a technique in which the respondent answers prepared questions and
discusses the issues involved (Carter et al. 1994). The purpose of the interview is to
register answers to questions, and later use them as a basis for analysis. The
questions can be unstructured, freely formulated, allowing the respondent to answer
them as he chooses. Structured questions require a yes or no answer from the
Chapter 2
Risk management
23
respondent, or that he accepts one of several alternatives offered. The project or risk
manager, who frames the questions and conducts the interview, should have great
knowledge and experience, primarily in formulating and drawing up questions but
also in conducting interviews. There are two forms of interview: one to one and
several to one. A one to one interview enables greater depth in identifying each risk,
while the several to one interview makes it possible to approach the respondent’s
knowledge from several angles. This technique is very time consuming because after
the interview its results should be systematised and analysed.
2.5.1.3 Questionnaires
Questionnaires are definitely the fastest and most efficient way of learning the
opinion of all the project team members and allowing these opinions to be analysed
and compared (Godfrey, 1996). Questions can be structured or unstructured. The
main disadvantage of this method is that is does not stimulate creative thinking.
Question quality depends on the person who compiled the questionnaire, but unlike
the case of the interview, the respondents cannot discuss their answers nor present
any stands outside the questions.
2.5.1.4 The Delphi technique
The Delphi technique is an attempt to obtain objective results from a subjective
discussion (Powel, 1996). It starts by the risk manager handing out a questionnaire to
all the project team members, who answer the questions and return the questionnaire
to the risk manager. Then the risk manager hands out the answers to all the project
team members, who use them to reconsider their approach, give new answers to the
same questions and return them to the risk manager. The revised results are again
distributed to the team members, who are again asked to reconsider their stands and
give new answers. This iterative process continues until the risk manager decided
that a consensus has been reached and that there is no more need to examine the
stands of all the team members. The main advantage of this technique is that the
project team members are independent and that there is no predominance of “strong
personalities”. The disadvantage is that a very large number of iterations are often
necessary for a consensus to be reached, which can be very time consuming.
Chapter 2
Risk management
24
2.5.1.5 Expert systems
An expert system is developed by using knowledge about earlier projects and the
experiences of all the participants in the project to identify potential risks (Carter et
al., 1994). The expert system will not expose all the hidden risks, but it will
incorporate all the experiences from earlier projects. One of the basic characteristics
of expert systems is that they provide an explanation of how a problem was solved,
thus providing the user both with the knowledge they contain and the reasoning
mechanism used to reach it, which he may examine. This significantly contributes to
the confidence people have in expert systems and why they accept them as reliable
tools for risk identification.
2.5.2 QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT
Once all the major risks have been identified and the risk list compiled, it is
necessary to make a qualitative risk assessment and record it in a document called
the risk register (Patterson i Neailey, 2002). The first step in forming the risk register
is a short description of each particular risk, which should be clear and unambiguous
to avoid confusing risks. When they have been described, the risks should be classed
into categories according to their sources. The categories should cover as many risk
sources as possible. Godfrey (1996) proposed one such categorisation:
political government policy, public opinion, change in ideology, dogma,
legislation, disorder
environmental contaminated land, pollution liability, noise, permissions, internal
corporate policy, environmental law or regulations or practice or
“impact” requirements
planning permission requirements, policy and practice, land use, socio-
economic impacts, public opinion
market demand, competition, obsolescence, customer satisfaction, fashion
economic treasury policy, taxation, cost inflation, interest rates, exchange
rates
financial bankruptcy, margins, insurance, risk share
Chapter 2
Risk management
25
natural unforeseen ground conditions, weather, earthquake, fire or
explosion, archaeological discovery
project definition, procurement strategy, performance requirements,
standards, leadership, organisation, planning and quality control,
programme, labour and resources, communications, culture
technical design adequacy, operational efficiency, reliability
human error, incompetence, ignorance, tiredness, communication ability,
culture, work in the dark or at night
criminal lack of security, vandalism, theft, fraud, corruption
safety CDM regulations, Health and Safety work, hazardous,
substances, collisions, collapse, flooding, fire and explosion
When the sources have been defined it is necessary to determine, for each risk, the
adverse event that will produce the risk. This is especially important for the later
establishment of risk response. Risks are often interconnected, which should also be
defined. For example, an activity undertaken as risk response may give rise to
another risk. In this phase of risk management it is necessary to allocate a person or
team responsible for every identified risk.
After determining the probability and impact of every risk, and thus also its
exposure, a risk list can be compiled according to priority and, depending on risk
acceptability, the strategy of response defined.
Once risks have been qualitatively assessed and measures taken to respond to them,
they are monitored and in this process new risks will probably be discovered
resulting from risk response. Since new risks should be treated in the same way as
the original risks, risk management becomes a cyclical process.
2.5.3 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
Risks are quantitatively analysed if it is possible to estimate the probability of an
event on the basis of available information about similar past events, or information
reached in another way, or on the basis of personal experience.
Chapter 2
Risk management
26
Many methods of quantitative risk analysis are in use today, the best-known being:
simple assessment, probabilistic analysis, sensitivity analysis, decision trees and
Monte Carlo Simulation (Evans and Olson, 1998; Baker, Ponniah and Smith, 1998;
Vose, 2000).
2.5.3.1 Simple assessment
This is a relatively simple arithmetical method that addresses significant risks
separately and examines the potential total effect (Powell, 1996). The evaluation is
based on calculating the expected impact of every significant risk. The impacts are
then added up and the sum impact is used as the foundation for a contingency plan.
This technique is satisfactory for small and simple projects
2.5.3.2 Probabilistic analysis
This is a statistical method that enables calculating the exposure for every separate
risk or for the project as a whole (Powell, 1996). First optimistic, most probable and
pessimistic cost and time estimates are given for every event. For example, an
optimistic price estimate for building a block of flats may be ₤500/m2, construction
will most probably cost ₤750/m2, and a pessimistic price estimate is ₤1,000/m
2.
Then the probability for each evaluation is subjectively defined. For example, let the
probability for the optimistic evaluation be 0.3, the probability for the most probable
evaluation 0.6, and the probability for the pessimistic evaluation 0.1. It is important
for the sum of all the probabilities to equal 1. Multiplying the estimated construction
costs with the corresponding probabilities and adding up the products gives
exposure, i.e. the Expected Value (EV). In the above example EV = 500*0.3 +
750*0.6 + 1000*0.1 = ₤700/m2. The EV differs from the optimistic evaluation by
₤200/m2, from the most probable evaluation by ₤50/m
2, and from the pessimistic
evaluation by ₤350/m2. This means that the pessimistic evaluation that is the
maximum likely risk and represents the basis for making the contingency plan.
Probabilistic analysis is simple to use and very understandable, but subjective
evaluation makes it dependent on the experience and knowledge of the risk manager
who makes it.
Chapter 2
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2.5.3.3 Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of every separate risk, i.e. the unwanted effect
of an event on the project (Flanagan and Norman, 1993). All the parameters that
influence the exposure value are varied and how their changes affect the final result
is followed. The percentage of parameter change divided by the percentage of result
change caused by that parameter change is called the sensitivity factor. The
sensitivity factor is not of great importance if the impact of one parameter only is
examined. It comes to expression when comparing the sensitivity factors of several
parameters affecting the result. This technique is useful for finding the parameter that
affects the final risk exposure most, but it does not show the probability that
parameters will change within the range rank in which the sensitivity analysis was
carried out.
2.5.3.4 Decision trees
Decisions are made when there are several alternatives (Godfrey, 1996). If each
alternative has sub-alternatives, and each sub-alternative sub-sub-alternatives, this
forms a tree structure showing all the possible paths of deciding. If the impact of
every alternative on the tree can be assessed and its probability evaluated,
subjectively or in some other way, this will result in exposure, that is in an Expected
Value (EV) which will define the risk level of every alternative.
2.5.3.5 Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Simulation is a statistical simulation technique (Wall, 1997). Every
parameter that influences a particular risk exposure is treated as a random variable
with the corresponding value rank and probability distribution function. The
distribution function is determined from existing databases or evaluated from
experience. One value of each parameter is randomly chosen and its probability
determined from the distribution function. The chosen parameter values and the
corresponding probabilities are used to calculate the corresponding exposure. This
random selection procedure is repeated from 100 to 1,000 times, when exposure
becomes a random variable as well. It is now possible to calculate the Expected
Value, maximum likely risk, the probability for exposure to assume a value within a
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particular interval, etc. Considering the large number of calculations, this technique
demands computer use.
2.5.4 RISK RESPONSE
Each identified risk, depending on the level of risk exposure, is classed as
unacceptable, undesirable, acceptable or negligible. This classification affects the
decision about how to respond to it (Baker, Ponniah and Smith, 1999).
If a risk is classed as unacceptable the response to it may be risk avoidance or risk
transfer.
If a risk is classed as undesirable the response to it may be risk avoidance, risk
transfer, risk reduction or risk sharing with the appropriate risk monitoring.
If a risk is classed as acceptable the response to it may be risk retention with the
appropriate risk monitoring.
If the risk is classed as negligible no response to it is necessary.
2.5.4.1 Risk avoidance
In practice risk avoidance means refusing to accept the risk at all (Flanagan and
Norman, 1993). Qualitative assessment has shown such high risk exposure that the
risk should simply be eliminated. To eliminate the risk, research is necessary into
whether the potential source of risk can be eliminated, the unfavourable event in
which the risk is inherent. The most drastic way of avoiding risk is not to accept the
contract, to give up the project. Risks can also be avoided by introducing a contract
clause whereby some risks, that is their consequences, shall not be accepted.
2.5.4.2 Risk transfer
This response means transferring the risk to any other participant in the project but
the investor through contracting (Carter et al. 1994). The investor can transfer the
risk to the contractor or the designer, the contractor to his sub-contractors or, the
investor, contractor or sub-contractors to the insurance company, and the contractor
and sub-contractors to their guarantee. When choosing a risk transfer strategy
through contracting, account should always be taken of which participant in the
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project can best control events that may lead to the appearance of the risk. Account
should be taken of which participant can best control the risk if it occurs, or assume a
risk that cannot be controlled.
2.5.4.3 Risk sharing
When a project participant cannot control risk exposure then he can share it with
other participants (Barnes, 1991). Part of the risk may be transferred but part should
be assumed and one of the risk responses applied.
2.5.4.4 Risk retention
When a project participant estimates that the risk probability is small, or that its
impact is acceptable, the risk is simply retained and no response is made (Powell,
1996). This does not mean that the risk is ignored; it is monitored and controlled and
its exposure is constantly checked.
2.5.4.5 Risk reduction
Most risks need not be avoided or transferred, they need not be shared with other
project participants nor need they simply be retained and not responded to (Baker,
Ponniah and Smith, 1999). Certain measures can be undertaken to reduce risk
exposure, that is to decrease the probability of an event with adverse effects, or
decrease the impact of these effects on the project. Risk reduction demands certain
initial investment. It goes without saying that this investment should be smaller than
the expenses entailed by the occurrence of the adverse event. For example, tunnel
excavation in weak rock mass is subject to the risk of rock-mass stability loss due to
inadequate substructuring or water penetration. Additional research is an expense but
considerably decreases these risks. The costs of additional research should be smaller
than the costs of repair if caving does occur. Risk reduction also provides new
knowledge about the project and the conditions under which it is being performed.
An attempt to reduce risk may lead to more detailed designing plans, an alternative
contracting strategy or some other method for executing the project.
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2.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This chapter researched the role of risk management in decision-making
independently of the industry in which the decisions are made. It explained all the
elements of the risk management process and proposed cyclical risk management,
which will be part of the framework for managing risks in construction projects
proposed in this work.
Decisions are made by all the participants in the execution of a project but are
realised by the project management team that has the task of executing the project in
the given time, with planned costs and a satisfactory quality.
To successfully realise a project it is necessary to identify events that may cause
unwanted effects, this means, to identify potential risk sources. Once a risk is
identified, it is necessary to assess the probability that it will occur, risk probability,
and to estimate the damage that it may cause to the project, risk impact. The concept
of risk exposure as the product of risk probability and risk impact is introduced to
enable the relative comparison of several risks within a project. The values of risk
exposure are used to make a risk priority list and define the appropriate response to
each risk depending on its exposure and position on the risk priority list. Risk
response may produce new events that may adversely affect the project and which it
is necessary to identify, analyse and anticipate the appropriate response. This is why
the risk management process is by its nature cyclical, and why risk management is
part of project management and cannot be viewed as a separate whole.
The next chapter will show research on managing risks in construction projects,
various approaches to risk management, and propose a new approach to risk
management that will be implemented in the framework for managing risks in
construction projects proposed in this work.
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3 RISK IN CONSTRUCTION
3.1 INTRODUCTION
The preceding chapter researched the role of risk management in project
management, showed all the elements of the risk management process and proposed
cyclical risk management as part of the framework for managing risks in
construction projects proposed in this work.
This chapter will show various approaches to risk management in construction
projects and show the need for a new approach to managing risks as part of the
construction process.
A lot of research has been performed and many papers published on the subject of
risk management. Methods have been sought for risk identification, qualitative and
quantitative risk analysis and risk response. Various risk management models have
been proposed throughout the project life cycle. Theoretic risk management models
have been used in the construction industry with more or less success. An
explanation follows of the published research results that influenced the model for
the risk management framework in construction projects proposed in this work. After
that CIRIA - A Guide to the Systematic Management of Risk from Construction and
RISKMAN - A Risk-driven Project Management Methodology will be shown, both of
which are complete but different approaches to systematic risk management in
construction.
3.2 DEALING WITH RISK IN CONSTRUCTION
Construction companies are more at risk than other industrial sectors. Almost sixty
percent of all contracting and construction companies are at risk of failure or forced
financial restructuring, making building the weakest industrial sector in the UK
(Ruddock, 1994). Between 1982 and 1985, Professor Peter Thompson and Dr. John
Perry of the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST),
supported by the Science and Engineering Research Council, carried out important
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research on how to deal with risk in construction. This research resulted in the report
Risk Management in Engineering Construction (Hayes at el, 1986).
During research they realised that in construction projects risk was too often either
ignored or treated in a completely arbitrary, that is, a simplified way. For standard
construction projects a 10% contingency was simply added to the estimated building
costs or deadlines, and for non-standard projects a different percentage, thereby
covering all uncertainty or possible risks. This kind of approach does not allow for
the specific features of every construction project and in fact excludes risk
management.
The UMIST team proposed that instead of contingency, the risk in evaluating total
project costs or duration should be quantified by introducing the most probable top
and bottom tolerance in the estimated costs and time. This tolerance, and thus also
the estimate of total costs, would change throughout the project life cycle.
Hamburger (1990) described the role of the project manager as contingency planner,
Murray, Ramsaur and Andersen (1983) showed project reserves as a key to
managing cost risks. Mak, Wong and Picken (1998), and Picken and Mak (2001),
used a methodology for capital cost estimating using risk analysis (ERA). According
to them, the sum of the average risk allowance for the identified risk events becomes
contingency. Jackson and Flanagan (2002) developed a systematic approach to
managing budget risks during project appraisal. Odeyinka and Love (2002)
investigated the risk factors responsible for variation between the forecast and actual
construction cash flow.
The UMIST team concluded that the greatest uncertainties and/or risks appear in the
earliest phases of the project life cycle, and that risk management as part of project
management should be a continuous activity throughout the project life cycle. Franke
(1987) also made a similar conclusion: Being a dynamic process, risk management
presupposes regular updating in order to analyse the development of the project
risks continuously. Traylor et al. (1984) addressed project management under
conditions of uncertainty.
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Risk in construction
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Smith (1999) confirms that risk diminishes with the advance of project realisation:
Risks change through the life cycle of a project. The earliest stages of the project are
concerned more with risks than other stages. As a project progresses risk diminishes.
He also shows his views that risk management is a continuous process: At the end of
each phase an appraisal and assessment can be made of the risk involved in
proceeding with the project. The management of risk is therefore a continuous
process and should span all the phases of the project.
The project team, under the project manager, is required to design, engineer and
construct the facilities, to an agreed specification, budget and time, without sacrifice
of quality, safety, operability or maintainability - in other words, fit for the purpose
(Baker, 1986). Chapman (1990) researched the role of risk engineering in risk
management. According to Perry (1986), risk management should be implemented
creatively, not as a set of rules. Mikkelsen (1990) introduced risk management in
product development projects. White (1995) showed the Application of Systems
Thinking to Risk Management. Mills (2001) described a systematic approach to risk
management in construction.
Risk and uncertainty are inherent in all construction work no matter what the size of
the project (Hayes et al., 1986). Lam (1999), and also Songer, Diekmann and Pecsok
(1997), researched risk identification in major infrastructural projects such as power,
telecommunication and process plants. Bajaj, Olowoye and Lenard (1997) researched
the contractor's approaches to risk identification
Willams (1994) considers that the risk register should be central to the risk
management process. In addition to identifying risks, the risk register includes risk
probability and risk impact, thereby also risk exposure, and in the final issue,
depending on risk acceptability, also the strategy of risk response. Patterson and
Neailey (2002) proposed a very comprehensive risk register database. Ward (1999)
also worked on the content of the risk register. In his opinion, organising the risk
register should start from the fact that resources available for risk management are
limited and that risk management should be cost effective.
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Meeting time and cost objectives in complex projects presents additional specific
risks (Haabison, 1985). Raz and Michael (2001) showed how various tools can be
used as support in different phases of the risk management process. They analysed
which tools successful companies use as support in risk management and what theses
companies do that others do not. Their survey categorises 38 tools and techniques
and is a good guide and starting basis for successful risk management.
Baker, Ponniah and Smith (1998) researched and compared the frequency with
which different qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were used. They
showed that about 80% project managers combine qualitative and quantitative
methods and the remaining 20% use qualitative techniques. A very small percentage
of managers use quantitative techniques only. Akintoye and MacLeod (1997) showed
a similar trend in the methods used for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis.
Raftery, Csete and Hui (2001) carried out the qualitative analysis: Are Risk Attitudes
Robust. Kartam and Levitt (1991) used an artificial intelligence approach in
qualitative risk analysis. Tah and Carr (2000) showed how fuzzy logic is used in
qualitative risk analysis. Al-Bahar (1991), Dey, Tabucanon and Ongunlana (1994),
Dey (1999) and Dey (2001) used An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in
qualitative risk analysis.
Quantitative risk analysis greatly depends on the availability of data and experience
from similar earlier projects. The most reliable and most complete data are provided
by the company’s own experience and databases from similar past projects. Other
important data sources are the experience of the project management team and the
experience of other companies that executed similar projects in the past. Numerous
techniques are available for the quantitative analysis of project risk, but without
competent data they are worthless (Bowers, 1994).
Hayes et al. (1986) emphasised the importance of analytical techniques in risk
assessment, and Ward and Chapman (1991) researched the role of risk analysis in
project management. Cooper, D.F., MacDonald, D.H and Chapman, C.B. (1985)
researched the role of risk analysis in construction cost estimate. Yeo (1991)
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Risk in construction
35
analysed project cost sensitivity. Berny and Towsend (1993) addressed macro-
simulation analysis, and Orman (1991) showed the use of simulation risk analysis in
project insurance. Newton (1991) showed Monte Carlo Simulation in analysing risks
from innovative design alternatives, and Hull (1990) showed Monte Carlo
Simulation in proposal assessment. Williams (1990) applied risk analysis using an
embedded CPA package. Kangari and Riggs (1988) described the role of risk
analysis in portfolio management in construction. Wall (1997) researched
distributions and correlations in Monte Carlo Simulation. Xu and Tiong (2001)
implemented risk assessment on contractors' pricing strategies.
In construction, as in life in general, it is necessary to strike a balance between rigid
adherence to the status quo, avoiding all risks on the one hand, and rash risk-seeking
behaviour on the other (Raftery, 1994). Baker, Ponniah and Smith (1999) analysed
risk response techniques in major construction projects. Their main conclusion is that
risk reduction is used as a risk response in practically 90% cases. Barnes (1991,
1983) showed risk sharing in contracts and how to allocate risks in construction
contracts. Berkeley, Humphreys and Thomas (1991) described the role of risk action
management in project management. Flanagan and Norman (1993) addressed the
client’s role in risk management. They say: Clients can have very different
objectives, but their needs can be grouped under the headings of time, cost, quality.
Time can mean both the need for rapid construction and completion on the stipulated
date. Cost means obtaining value for money and completing the project within
budget. Quality is used to cover technical standards, including such areas as safety
and fitness for purpose. The relative importance of time, cost and quality will vary
from client to client (and between similar clients in different countries). What is,
however, certain is that the clients of the industry do not want surprises. They want
to achieve their desired objective and to this end a professional approach to risk
management is required. Thompson (1991) also wrote about the client’s role in risk
management. Katavic (1994) showed risk reduction in early phases of the investment
project.
Baccarini and Archer (2001) developed a methodology of project choice based on
estimating the project’s total risk and comparing this with the risks of other projects
Chapter 3
Risk in construction
36
by introducing the overall risk rating. Moselhi and Deb (1993) used the multi-
objective decision-criteria method to choose a project under conditions of
uncertainty. Burchett, J.F., and Tummala V.M.R. (1998) showed a risk management
model for project selection. Wong, Norman and Flanagan (2000) showed a fuzzy
stochastic technique for project selection.
Risk is minimised using one of the existing optimisation methods known as search
techniques. The better-known methods include: genetic algorithms (Mitchell, 1996),
simulated annealing (Kirkpatrick, 1983), and hill climbing (Ferry and Brandon,
1991). Winston (1998, 1999) showed the use of computers in decision making under
uncertainty.
The literature review shows that most authors have tended to focus on different
techniques for quantitative or qualitative risk assessment, risk registers, the role of
risk management in project management, and other mechanisms. This thesis argues
that realising a construction project is a process and that the risk management process
should be subordinated to the construction process
Therefore, the proposed framework introduces a new approach to risk management
by embedding it within the construction process, and has thereby developed
process-driven risk management approach.
This chapter will show two approaches to risk management in construction projects:
Firstly one developed by CIRIA - A Guide to the systematic management of risk
from construction and secondly the RISKMAN methodology developed by Eureka
research programme. Both approaches have provided useful guidance for developing
proposed framework. They give a sytematic approach to risk management from risk
identification to risk response in all construction projects regardless of the syze, type
and purpose of the project.
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37
3.3 CIRIA - A GUIDE TO THE SYSTEMATIC MANAGEMENT
OF RISK FROM CONSTRUCTION
Godfrey (1996) showed a comprehensive approach to systematic risk management in
construction. In 1993-1995 the Construction Industry Research and Information
Association (CIRIA) funded research in risk management, undertaken by Sir William
Halcrow and Partners Ltd, in co-operation with Professor Peter Thompson,
University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology, and Professor Philip
Capper, King's College, University of London.
The research resulted in a Guide by Patrik Godfrey (1996), made to help implement
the systematic risk management process.
The objective of the Guide was to:
o introduce a simple, practical method of identifying, assessing, monitoring and
managing risk from construction in an informed and structured way;
o provide advice on how to develop and implement risk control strategy that is
appropriate to your business;
o identify when and how to seek and evaluate specialist advice in assessing
risks.
Systematic risk management makes it possible to:
o identify, asses and rank risks making risks explicit;
o focus on the major risks from project;
o make informed decisions on provision for adversity, e.g. mitigation measures;
o minimise potential damage should the worst happen;
o control the uncertain aspects of construction projects;
o clarify and formalise your role and the roles of others in the risk management
process;
o identify opportunities to enhance project performance.
The Guide contains 4 toolboxes designed as a step-by-step procedure for
implementing a systematic risk management process in practice. Using these 4
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Risk in construction
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toolboxes enables systematic risk management regardless of the type and volume of
a construction project.
Toolbox 1: Risk identification techniques is a tool that can be used to identify risks in
the systematic risk management process. The Guide shows the practical use of some
of the most widespread risk identification techniques, such as:
o free and structured brainstorming,
o prompt lists,
o use of records and
o structured interviews.
Toolbox 2: Risk registers and risk assessments is a tool that helps form and update
the risk register and implement risk assessment. The Guide suggests a risk register
that can be directly implemented in practice. In its simplest form risk register will:
o describe the existing risk and
o record possible risk reduction or mitigation actions.
Depending on circumstances, it can also provide:
o subdivision of risk into more detail,
o a measure of probability and impact,
o identification of ownership of the risks,
o importance/cost/acceptability of the risk,
o practicality of mitigation actions,
o cost and ownership of action,
o timing of action,
o assessment of residual risk and measure of cost benefit.
Toolbox 3: Systematic capture of the problem is a tool that shows the use of some
advanced techniques in quantitative risk analysis. The Guide describes the practical
use of the following techniques:
o Decision trees,
o Fault trees,
o Event trees,
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Risk in construction
39
o Sensitivity analysis,
o Cost contingency analysis and
o Programme risk analysis.
Toolbox 4: Methods of presentation of risk analysis result is a tool that shows the use
of some advanced techniques of presenting the results of risk analysis. The Guide
describes the use of the following techniques:
o Improving estimates,
o Retiring contingency during the project,
o Decision consequence model and
o Cost and time plot.
3.4 RISKMAN - RISK-DRIVEN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
METHODOLOGY
Carter et al. (1994) showed a methodology of risk management throughout the life
cycle of a structure. The methodology resulted from studies made as part of the
Eureka research programme in 1990-1993.
The objective of the RISKMAN methodology is forming a framework for
professional analysis, controlling project risks and providing guidance for
implementing the framework proposed. The RISKMAN methodology approaches
risk management in all its complexity. The following guidelines show the
foundations of this risk management methodology:
o Risk, or uncertainty, is an integral, inevitable and important feature of all
project scenarios, and one which has not been given sufficient attention since
the advent of critical path analysis in the 1960s;
o Risk should be respected, but not feared. It should be handled systematically
and carefully;
o The pro-active control of significant risks and threats to the achievement of
project objectives is so important, that it should be the highest priority for the
project manager;
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Risk in construction
40
o When managed professionally, risk-taking can provide real opportunities to
maximise potential benefits for all concerned, and yield higher profit and/or
benefit returns than low-risk enterprises;
o If risk is to be managed professionally, an analytical and quantitative
approach is essential, combined with a real understanding of probability and
uncertainty theory;
o The mathematical approach is essential, combined with a real understanding
of probability and uncertainty theory;
o The mathematical approach is essential for the evaluation of risk, but alone it
is impotent. People should be involved if risk is to be controlled and risk
opportunities exploited. The human approach should run kind with the
mathematical approach;
o Since the project manager must bring in all project deliverables within
budgeted time and cost, that budget should include a contingency budget
sufficient to address all uncertainties or risks as best can be forecast. This also
means that the contingency should be justified explicitly in advance of
commitment to the budget;
o Advance justification of risk contingency will encourage honesty in the
estimating process and the acceptance of progressive management combining
openness with responsibility;
o Risks must be owned by individuals. Risk causes must also be owned,
monitored and mitigated. Early action is usually lower in cost and more
effective than management by crisis.
The basic goals of the RISKMAN methodology are:
o To increase professional capability in the taking of risks in project
environments.
o To promote general understanding of risk and probabilistic theory amongst
management and staff at all levels.
o To provide general principles for effective risk management.
o To provide specific guidance on a framework within which project risk can
be effectively managed.
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41
o To clarify terminology which may form a sound basis for effective
communication about risk.
o To examine, clarify, assess and provide guidance on the methods and
techniques available for risk analysis and management.
The RISKMAN methodology demands:
o that all risks are uniquely identified and described;
o that care is taken to include consequential risks and combinations of risks;
o risk to be assessed for probability of occurrence and potential impact on the
programme, cost or performance;
o all non-cost impacts to be calculated out on their cost implications;
o each major risk to have a mitigation strategy;
o major risks to be assigned a trigger event in the project programme;
o each risk to have an owner responsible for its management;
o risk to be prioritised;
o risk to be reviewed at regular intervals;
o risk status to be reported at regular intervals;
o a risk model to be developed, that contains all the uncertainties and risk
estimates that may effect the programme timescales or costs;
o risk contingencies to be identified against the event that will incur the risk;
o subcontractors to be assessed for risks;
o risk management plans to be in place.
The RISKMAN methodology has eight steps: risk identification, risk assessment,
risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk budget provisioning, risk monitoring and
control, risk audits and continuous improvement.
Risk management takes place through risk audits in all the stages of the structure’s
life cycle. The objectives of the project risk audit are:
o to confirm that risk management in accordance with the company's
procedures has been applied at each stage in the project life-cycle;
o to confirm that the project is well managed and that the risks are under
control;
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42
o to verify that the project reporting and project management is effective;
o to assist in the transfer across projects of experience gained in resolving risks;
o to assist in identifying early signs of deterioration and the profit potential of
the project;
o to verify that the project history file is maintained.
The risk management process is repeated at every stage in a project lifecycle so that a
continuity and growing assessment of risk to success are obtained.
3.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This chapter showed how various authors in the construction industry have tried to
answer the question How to deal with risk in construction? With the purpose of
improving risk management, investigations were made about the importance of all
the project participants in minimizing the adverse effects of risks, about risk
identification, qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, minimizing risk by using
optimisation techniques, and risk response.
It also showed and gave a detailed analysis of two approaches to systematic risk
management in construction projects, CIRIA, A Guide to the Systematic
Management of Risk from Construction, and RISKMAN, A Risk-driven Project
Management Methodology. Both approaches have provided useful guidance for
developing proposed framework. They give a sytematic approach to risk
management from risk identification to risk response in all construction projects
regardless of the syze, type and purpose of the project.
The CIRIA Guide contains a step-by-step procedure for implementing systematic
risk management in construction projects. A step-by-step procedure can be an
effective way of managing and controlling risk in construction. Risk should be
managed throughout the structure life cycle. Different phases of the life cycle have
their own specific features, they continue one onto another and demand a separate
approach to risk management. The least that can be done is to prescribe a set of
Chapter 3
Risk in construction
43
procedures for managing risk in every separate phase. Furthermore, the risk
management process should be adapted to the structure’s life cycle as a process.
RISKMAN is a risk-driven project methodology. However, even this methodology
does not make an allowance for the fact that the construction’s life cycle is a process
and that risk management should be adapted to this process. Therefore, what is
necessary is process-driven risk management.
The next chapter will show the specific features of the construction industry that
make it more difficult to introduce changes leading to construction process
improvement. It will research the breakdown of the construction process into phases
so as to discover the group of activities necessary during the realisation of any
construction project. Finally, it will research the connection between risk
management and the construction process.
Chapter 4
Process in construction
44
4 PROCESS IN CONSTRUCTION
4.1 INTRODUCTION
The preceding chapter analysed various approaches to managing risks in construction
projects and showed the need for a new approach to risk management in the
construction process.
The first part of this chapter will show the specific features of the construction
process that make it different from other industry processes and which make it more
difficult to introduce changes leading to construction process improvement. The
group of activities necessary for product realisation should be developed and
continuously advanced for every industry, including construction. Every industry
strives to create products as quickly as possible, with minimum expenses and of
satisfactory quality. Because of its specific features and inertia, the construction
industry lags considerably behind other industries in the achievement of these goals,
that is, in developing an efficient production process (Latham, 1994; Egan, 1998;
Egan, 2002).
The second part of the chapter will research various approaches to breaking down the
construction process into discrete phases, each of which has its purpose, duration and
scope of work. To introduce a new approach to managing risks, it studies the
connection between risk management and the construction process.
4.2 PROCESS IMPROVEMENT
A process is a series of activities (tasks, steps, events, operations) that takes an input,
adds value to it, and produces an output (product, service, or information) for a
customer. Customers are all those who receive that process output (Anjard, 1998).
In comparison with other industries, many special features burden process in
construction and this makes changes leading to process improvement difficult.
Structures are often very large and complex and it is necessary to organise
construction processes on the building site according to space and time, while
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Process in construction
45
making optimum use of existing capacities. A production process of this kind is
almost impossible to simply transfer among structures of different sizes and
complexities. Production processes in construction last for a very long time, which
increases the probability of detrimental events and the risk of running behind
schedule. In its level of mechanisation construction still lags significantly behind
other industries, and although machinery is increasingly replacing human work this
is taking place much more slowly than elsewhere. Unlike industries predominated by
production for an unknown client, structures are almost as a rule commissioned by a
client or investor who stipulates the location, size, quality and purpose of the future
product. Thus the investor should take part in the production process. Investors are
usually inexperienced in this, which makes process development in construction
additionally difficult.
Construction developed as an industry when the approach to it changed and the
process was introduced in building. Many research works on process in construction,
implemented in the last ten or so years, show this.
Latham (1994) made a joint review of procurement and contractual arrangements in
the UK construction industry with the objectives of making recommendations to the
Government, the construction industry and its clients regarding reform to reduce
conflict and litigation and encourage the industry's productivity and competitiveness.
He studied current procurement and contractual arrangements and current roles,
responsibilities and performance of the participants, including the client. He noticed
that, due to the character of the production process, poor communication among all
the participants in the project is a great drawback. He concluded that real savings of
up to 30 % of construction costs are possible with a will to change.
Egan (1998) reported on the scope for improving the quality and efficiency of UK
construction. Construction should learn from other industries how to change and
improve the process through which it delivers its projects with the aim of achieving
continuous improvement in its performance and products. For Egan construction is a
repeated process. He considers that not only are many buildings, such as houses,
essentially repeat products which can be continually improved, but, more
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Process in construction
46
importantly, the process of construction is itself repeated in its essentials from project
to project. His research suggests that up to 80% of inputs into buildings is repeated.
Much repair and maintenance work also uses a repeat process. A problem is the lack
of integration in the process, evidenced by the largely sequential and separate
operations undertaken by individual designers, contractors and suppliers with little
commitment to the overall success of the project. Egan considers it especially
important to establish a system for measuring process improvements in terms of
predictability, cost, time and quality. The results of such measurements would enable
clients to recognise those companies that have improved performance through
process development. He concluded that targets of UK construction industry should
include annual reductions of 10% in construction cost and construction time, and
defects in projects should be reduced by 20% per year.
To accelerate change Egan (2002) identifies three key drivers, to secure a culture of
continuous improvement, which will help to transform the industry, starting with
those sectors where the leadership exists and where the ideas for change and
improvement can most readily be taken up:
1. The need for client leadership,
2. The need for itegrated teams,
The need to address 'people issues', especially health and safety.
Hammer and Champy (1993) define Business Process Re-Engineering (BPR) as the
fundamental rethinking and radical redesign of business processes to achieve
dramatic improvements in critical, contemporary measures of performance, such as
cost, quality, service and speed.
Love and Li (1998) concluded that BPR can only improve the intra-organisational
business process of an organisation and cannot be applied for inter-organisational
processes used to procure a project. That is why they proposed a conceptual project-
based approach to re-engineering in construction, which they call Construction
Process Re-Engineering (CPR). They define CPR as an integrated and holistic
approach that focuses on managing and optimising process flows and eliminating
waste whilst simultaneously fulfilling customer requirements and satisfying the
Chapter 4
Process in construction
47
individual business needs of each participating organisation in a project so that the
added-value to the final product is enhanced.
SPICE (Structured Process Improvement for Construction Enterprises) is a research
project that developed a process improvement framework for the construction
industry (Sarshar, 1998; Finnemore and Sarshar, 2000; Finnemore, Sarshar and
Haigh, 2000, Finnemore et al., 2000). According to its authors, the SPICE
framework is not prescriptive. It does not tell an organisation how to improve. SPICE
describes the major process characteristics of an organisation at each maturity level,
without prescribing the means for getting there. However, part of the SPICE
methodology is to encourage a systematic approach to process improvement in
construction taking the lessons from other industries, particularly the software and
aircraft industries. This thesis attempts to provide part of that systematic approach by
embedding risk management in the overall process of design and occupation of
buildings.
Holt, Love and Nesan (2000) developed an implementation model for process
improvement. Tzortzopoulos, Betts and Cooper (2002) engaged in implementing the
process model in construction companies. Kamara, Anumba and Evbuomwan (2000)
developed the process model for client requirements processing in construction. They
too, encouraged a systematic approach.
4.3 PROJECT PHASES
It has been recognised for some time that projects exhibit a life cycle comprising a
number of discrete stages (Smith,1999).
Every project can be divided into discrete phases each of which has its purpose,
duration and scope of work. The end of every phase is a decision point where past
progress is revised and all key decisions made for the continuation of the project.
Thus the division of the project into phases, i.e. the plan of work, is an important part
of every process.
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Process in construction
48
The division of the project into phases resulted from the desire to find a set of
activities that should be carried out in the realisation of every construction project.
This is the first step in establishing the construction process.
Flanagan and Norman (1993) divided the construction process in 4 phases:
1. Investment Decision (Appraisal / Feasibility / Budget),
2. Design,
3. Construction,
4. Occupancy.
The RIBA Plan of Work (Philips and Lupton, 2000) proposes 11 phases:
1. Appraisal
2. Strategic Briefing
3. Outline Proposals
4. Detailed Proposals
5. Final Proposals
6. Production Information
7. Tender Documentation
8. Tender Action
9. Mobilisation
10. Construction to Practical Completion
11. Construction After Practical Completion
The BPF Manual (British Property Federation, 1983) proposes 5 phases:
1. Concept
2. Preparation to brief
3. Design development
4. Tendering
5. Construction
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Process in construction
49
The Construction Industry Board (Construction Industry Board, 1997) also divides
the process in construction in 5 phases:
1. Getting started
2. Defining the project
3. Assembling the team
4. Designing and constructing
5. Completion and evaluation
The Process Protocol Map (Kagioglou, et al. 1998a) divides the construction process
in 10 phases:
1. Demonstrating the Need
2. Conception of Need
3. Outline Feasibility
4. Substantive Feasibility Study & Outline Financial Authority
5. Outline Conceptual Design
6. Full Conceptual Design
7. Coordinated Design, Procurement & Full Financial Authority
8. Production Management
9. Construction
10. Operation and Maintenance
According to Hughes (1991), every project goes through similar phases in its
evolution. The phases may vary in size and intensity, depending on the project.
Hughes compared 7 plans of work published to date and concluded that many of
them are more than a check list. Activities in construction projects to make up plans
of work should be described in as much detail and in such a way that different
projects may be compared. It is much more useful to concentrate on common aspects
among projects than to begin analysis by describing the unique points of each
project. He stated that the uniqueness is at a greater level of detail than the
commonality, and therefore it should be modelled as such. Comparing plans of work
resulted in a list of 8 phases that are common to all construction projects:
1. Inception. Define need and determine financial implications and sources.
2. Feasibility. Preliminary design, costing and investigations of alternatives.
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Process in construction
50
3. Scheme Design. Programming, budgeting, briefing, outline design etc.
4. Detail Design. Development of all sub-systems within the design, detailed
cost control, technical details etc.
5. Contract. Contract specification, pricing mechanism, sufficient
documentation for selection of contractor etc.
6. Construction. Execution and control of all site work and associated activities,
further contract documentation.
7. Commissioning. Snagging, operating instructions, maintenance manuals,
opening ceremonies, occupation, evaluation, managing the facility, staff
training etc.
Huges (2000) carried out similar research in which he analysed and compared 9
plans of work. He concluded that a project must always begin with some kind of
definition of what will be built, followed by the design. After the design follows the
contracting process, construction work and the completion of the project. This leads
to the compilation of 5 basic phases through which every construction project must
pass.
1. Defining the project. There are usually two steps in the process of defining
the project: selecting appropriate expert advisors and using their advice to
define the purpose of the project. Generally, the work at this phase involves
some kind of feasibility study, an assessment of the extent to which a
construction project will fulfil the client's needs, planning the control and
management strategies, and initial ideas for the design of the project.
2. Design work. There is a broad consensus among plans of work that an initial
idea for the project arises during the earliest stages of brief development and
assessing the need for a project. This then forms the basis for three distinct
stages of design, which differ from each other in that each adds significantly
to the detail of the previous stage as the various aspects and sub-systems of
the design are rationalised and documented.
3. Contract formation. Between design and construction, a decision is generally
required about who is going to build the project, and under what contractual
conditions. The process at this point often incorporates the development of
bills of quantity, or some other documentation for pricing, and the preparation
Chapter 4
Process in construction
51
of highly specific production information, which may be dependent on a
propriety installer. Contract formation seems generally to encompass three
distinct types of activity: information for site work, information for tendering
and contractor selection (tendering).
4. Construction work. Once the contractor is appointed, work starts on site.
Most plans of work acknowledge the impossibility of documenting
everything before construction work begins, by identifying continuing
documentation during the construction process. Construction is the most
obvious phase of a building project, but there is much variability in the detail
of the various source documents.
5. Completion of the project. This later phase may include such activities as
putting right defective work, commissioning and ascertainment of the final
account.
4.4 RISK AND PROJECT PHASES
Risk is inherent in each phase of the life cycle of a construction project regardless of
the size of the project. As every project can be divided into several phases, and there
are sets of common activities in each project, this suggests that there is a generic way
of looking at risk, i.e. it may be possible to establish a generic risk management
approach for all construction projects which could be adopted by the whole of the
construction industry. Different phases though which the project passes have their
specific points, they continue one after another and require a different approach to
risk management. The planned risk management process is implemented for each
phase. At the end of each phase risks are re-identified and analysed for the remaining
phases and the decision is made about how to manage the risks in them.
Smith (1999) stated that the earliest phases of the project are concerned with value
management to improve the definition of design objectives; the design stage is
concerned more with value engineering to achieve necessary function at minimum
cost; and the construction phase is centred around quality management to ensure that
the design is constructed correctly without the need for costly rework.
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Process in construction
52
Every phase contains several key requirements that must be satisfied before making
the decision to continue the process. As the project progresses information is
obtained that confirms or denies the starting assumptions. If the starting assumptions
are denied then completely new risks may appear, which have to be managed. Smith
(1999) stated that, generally speaking, risks should diminish as the project
progresses.
Uncertainties and risks are the greatest in early phases of the project. As the project
advances the number of unknowns decreases. The level of uncertainties is inversely
proportional with the progression of the project. Godfrey (1996) stated that as a
project progresses, cost assumptions become facts and cost uncertainty therefore
reduces. Contingency can be retired progressively giving better control of the project
by preventing surpluses being used later to cover up mismanagement.
Risks, that is, their exposure, can change within a project phase. Construction
projects are long lasting and one phase can take several months or even years to
complete. This makes it necessary to predict risk identification and analysis during
the phase, not only at its end.
Risk management is a continuous process and takes place throughout the process life
cycle. However, often the project does not run continuously. It may be interrupted
within a phase for several reasons, such as lack of resources, market changes,
political reasons and so on. This is one of the crucial risks and does not depend on a
particular phase.
All that has been said shows that risk management must be subjected to the
construction process, not to the phases through which the project passes. All parties
involved in decision making should consider risk and its impact through the whole
life cycle of a project. Risk management should therefore be process-driven risk
management. Risk management improvement must be a composite part of process
improvement.
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Process in construction
53
4.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This chapter showed the specific features of the construction process in comparison
with other industry processes, breaking down the project into the phases every
project must pass through during its realisation, and the role of risk management in
the construction process.
All the above research concluded that the Process in construction needs significant
changes and continuous improvement. These changes and improvements are
accompanied by risks that may have a detrimental effect on planned costs, project
duration and project quality. Efficient risk management must enable changes in
construction and contribute to quality improvement and greater efficiency.
The framework for risk management in construction proposed in this work is based
on process-driven risk management, which completely subordinates the risk
management process to the construction process.
The next chapter will show the concept of and the principles underlying the
Construction Process Protocol as a generic construction process within which the
framework for process-driven risk management will be developed.
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
54
5 PROCESS PROTOCOL
5.1 INTRODUCTION
The preceding chapter showed the specific features of the construction process, how
the project is broken down into phases, and the role of risk management in the
construction process. The conclusion was that the risk management process should
be subordinated to the construction process through process-driven risk management.
This chapter will show the concept and principles underlying the Construction
Process Protocol that makes it possible to manage the construction process from
Demonstrating the Need to Operation and Maintenance. It will show the advantages
of Process Protocol over other plans of work, which is why it was chosen as the
construction process for the development of the proposed framework for process-
driven risk management.
The Process Protocol is a common set of definitions, documentations and procedures
that will provide the basics to allow the wide range of organisations involved in a
construction project to work together seamlessly (Kagioglou et al. 1998a).
The Generic Design and Construction Process Protocol was developed as the result
of a research project at the University of Salford by Professor R.Cooper and her
team, in cooperation with several companies that were in various ways connected
with the construction industry. The EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council) under the IMI (Innovative Manufacturing Initiative) financed the
project.
The following is a summary of the main findings of the Generic Design and
Construction Process Protocol project (Kagioglou et al. 1998b):
o The front-end of the design and construction process is frequently very fuzzy,
often with a lack of effective combined process and IT focus in many
companies.
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Process Protocol
55
o With the exception of some large organisations the majority of companies do
not employ a design and construction process.
o Frequently the IT aspects of a project are poorly co-ordinated resulting in
non-compliance and compatibility issues.
o The stakeholder involvement in a design and construction project is often
limited to those persons or bodies that have a financial stake in the project
outcome, thus ignoring the needs and/or requirements of the wider group of
stakeholders that could have an impact or be impacted by the project solution,
formulation and/or implementation.
o The utilisation of teams within a design and construction project could enable
effective communications and improve information visibility, in particular
when operating under a consistent process and IT framework.
o The use of a consistent design and construction process could enable effective
project co-ordination in conjunction with traditional tools such as project
management.
o The operational process aspects of a design and construction project are at a
defined maturity level but what is a lacking is a strategic process which is
only observed in it's infancy in the majority of organisation in construction.
o There is a need for key principles which are used in manufacturing and could
be transferred successfully to construction.
o A method of process and IT alignment through the application of technology
within a process framework is presented.
o The culture within an organisation will play a significant part in
implementing a 'new' design and construction process.
o A legacy archive IT system could enable the effective collection and
interactive exchange of project and product data about current and past
projects, improving visibility of project data and communications between
the project participants.
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Process Protocol
56
5.2 THE CONCEPT OF THE PROCESS PROTOCOL
The concept of the Process Protocol was based on the following (Kagioglou, Cooper
and Aouad, 1999):
o A need for a model which is capable of representing the diverse interests of
all the parties involved in the construction process or which is able to provide
a complete overview.
o There will be no best way for all circumstances but a generic and adaptable
set of principles will allow a consistent application of principles in a
repeatable form.
o A need for a coherent and explicit set of process-related principles, a new
process paradigm, which can be managed and reviewed across the breadth
and depth of the industry, which focuses on changing and systematising the
strategic management of the potentially common management processes in
construction whilst accommodating the fragmentary production
idiosyncrasies.
o A need for design and construction operations to form part of a common
process best controlled by an integrated system
o A need for a process protocol which is sufficiently repeatable and definable
to allow IT to be devised to support its management and information
management; also to allow systematic and consistent interfaces between the
existing practices and IT practice-support tools to be operated. Simplicity in
the protocol and its operation are essential. There should be clarity in terms of
what is required, from whom, when, and with whose cooperation, for whom,
for what purposes, and how it will be evaluated.
o Standardised deliverables and roles associated with achieving, managing and
reviewing the process.
o Requirement for Industry-Wide Coordinated Process Improvement
programme.
o A clear plan for future IT needs to support the development of a repeatable
and generic protocol.
o A philosophy of early entry into the process for the key functionaries.
Emphasise effort on design and planning to minimise error and reworking
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
57
during construction. An extended process - earlier entry than traditional to
allow a coordinated and recognisable/manageable professional contribution to
the requirements capture and pre-project phases of client project planning -
termed pre-project phases.
o Extension of the recognised construction industry involvement in the process
beyond completion - a post-completion phase.
The Process Protocol is based on 6 key principles taken from the manufacturing
industry (Kagioglou et al. 1998c):
1. Whole Project View. The process of design and construction has to cover the
whole 'life' of the project from recognition of a need to the operation and
maintenance of the finished facility. This approach ensures that all the issues
are considered from both a business and a technical point of view as well as
ensuring informed decision making at the ‘front-end’ of the design and
construction development process.
2. Progressive Design Fixity. Drawing from the ‘stage-gate’ approach in
manufacturing new product development (NPD) processes, the Process
Protocol adopts a Phase Review Process which applies a consistent planning
and review procedure throughout the project. The benefit of this approach is
fundamentally the progressive fixing of design information throughout the
Process, allowing for increased predictability of construction works.
3. A Consistent Process. The generic properties of the Process Protocol allow a
consistent application of the Phase Review Process irrespective of the project
in hand. This together with the adoption of a standard approach to
performance measurement, evaluation and control, will facilitate the process
of continual improvement in design and construction.
4. Stakeholder Involvement / Teamwork. Project success relies upon the right
people having the right information at the right time. The pro-active
resourcing of phases through the adoption of a ‘stakeholder’ view should
ensure that appropriate participants (from each of the key functions) are
consulted earlier in the process than is traditionally the case. Furthermore, the
correct identification and prioritisation of the stakeholders and their needs
should enable effective decision making throughout the project life cycle.
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
58
5. Co-ordination. The need for effective co-ordination between the project team
members is paramount. Appointed by the client, Process Management will be
delegated authority to co-ordinate the participants and activities of each
phase, throughout the process. With a focus on the design and construction
process, Process Management ensures the correct application of the Process
Protocol to the project in hand.
6. Feedback. Success and failure can offer important lessons for the future. The
Phase Review Process facilitates a means by which project experiences can
be recorded, updated and used throughout the Process, thereby informing
later Phases and future projects. The creation, maintenance and use of a
Legacy Archive will aid a process of Continual Improvement in design and
construction.
5.3 STAGE-GATE PROCESS
One of the main characteristics of the Process Protocol is the stage-gate process
taken from manufacturing industry. From idea to realisation, every product passes
through a certain number of phases (stages). Each phase incorporates a set of
activities that must be undertaken if the production process is to continue. At the end
of each phase there are gates that represent a checkpoint where prior activities are
reviewed and a decision is made to commence the following stage. The gate is a so-
called Go/Kill quality control checkpoint. One such stage-gate process is shown in
Fig. 5.1. (Cooper, 1990).
Figure 5.1: Stage-gate process (Cooper, 1990)
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Process Protocol
59
The stage-gate process shown has certain deficiencies that decrease its practical
efficiency (Cooper, 1994):
1. The project must wait at each gate until all tasks have been completed. Thus,
projects can be slowed down for the sake of one activity that remains to be
completed.
2. The overlapping of activities is not possible.
3. Projects must go through all stages and gates, where in some circumstances it
might be quicker to eliminate or bypass some activities, especially for small
firms.
4. The system does not lead to project prioritisation and focus, as it was
originally designed for single projects.
5. Some new product processes are very detailed, accounting for minute details
of the process, and therefore making it hard to understand, manage and learn.
6. Sometime it tends to be bureaucratic, making the process too slow.
To overcome these deficiencies, Cooper (1994) proposed a "third generation new
product development process (see Fig. 5.2.).
Figure 5.2: Third generation new product development process (Cooper, 1994)
The basic characteristic of the new proposal is that stages may overlap so the project
need not wait for each activity within a stage to be completed before moving on to
the following stage. The process conditionally continues until this activity is
completed, after which it is decided how it has affected the project as a whole. This
enables greater flexibility and speed in implementing projects.
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
60
The process is still sequential in nature, which means that stages cannot be skipped
or eliminated.
The process protocol has two types of gates: 'soft' gates and 'hard' gates. A 'soft' gate
allows conditionally moving on to the following phase without completing all
activities of the preceding phase. A 'hard' gate cannot be passed until all the activities
of the preceding phases have been completed and the decision made to continue or
not to continue the project.
5.4 PROCESS PROTOCOL STAGES/PHASES
According to the Process Protocol, the construction process can be divided into 4
stages that comprise 10 phases (see Appendix 1). The stages are:
Stage 1: Pre-Project Stage
Stage 2: Pre-Construction Stage
Stage 3: Construction Stage
Stage 4: Post-Construction Stage
5.4.1 PRE-PROJECT STAGE
The Pre-Project Stage is geared to researching or investigating all the project
solutions that will best satisfy the client’s need, and ensuring the outline financial
authority to proceed for those solutions. It contains phases 0, 1, 2 and 3:
Phase 0: Demonstrating the Need
Phase 1: Conception of Need
Phase 2: Outline Feasibility
Phase 3: Substantive Feasibility Study & Outline Financial Authority
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Process Protocol
61
5.4.2 PRE-CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The Pre-Construction Stage turns the client’s needs into the appropriate project on
various levels of completion and ensures full financial authority to proceed. It
contains phases 4, 5 and 6:
Phase 4: Outline Conceptual Design
Phase 5: Full Conceptual Design
Phase 6: Coordinated Design, Procurement & Full Financial Authority
5.4.3 CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The Construction Stage is that of executing the structure, i.e. it produces the project
solution. It contains phases 7 and 8:
Phase 7: Production Management
Phase 8: Construction
5.4.4 POST-CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The Post-Construction Stage has the purpose of managing structure maintenance. It
contains phase 9:
Phase 9: Operation and Maintenance
5.5 ACTIVITY ZONES
The Process Protocol classifies project participants in Activity Zones. Each project
participant is determined by his responsibility for project realisation. In a small
project one person can perform all the tasks of an activity zone. In complex projects
one activity zone may include several participants or even several companies. The
zones are multifunctional, overlapping and are a structured set of tasks and
processes. They cover the whole spectrum of skills needed for a construction project.
According to Kagiogolu, et al. 1998a, the Process Protocol contains 9 activity zones:
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
62
1. Development Management is responsible for creating and maintaining
business focus throughout the project, which satisfies both relevant
organisational and stakeholder objectives and constraints.
2. Project Management is responsible for effectively and efficiently
implementing the project to agreed performance measures, in close
collaboration with Process Management.
3. Resources Management is responsible for the planning, co-ordination,
procurement and monitoring of all financial, human and material resources.
4. Design Management is responsible for the design process which translates the
business case and project brief into an appropriate product definition. It
guides and integrates all design input from other activity zones
5. Production Management is responsible for ensuring the optimal solution for
the buildability of the design, the construction logistics and organization for
delivery of the product.
6. Facilities Management is responsible for ensuring the cost efficient
management of assets and the creation of an environment that strongly
supports the primary objectives of the building owner and/ or user.
7. Health & Safety, Statutory and Legal Management is responsible for the
identification, consideration and management of all regulatory, statutory and
environmental aspects of the project.
8. Process Management develops and operationalises the Process Protocol and
is responsible for planning and monitoring each phase.
9. Change Management is responsible for effectively communicating project
changes to all relevant activity zones and the development and operation of
the legacy archive.
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Process Protocol
63
5.6 PROCESS PROTOCOL MAPS
A process map is a visual aid for picturing work processes which shows how inputs,
outputs and tasks are linked. A process map prompts new thinking about how work is
done. It highlights major steps taken to produce an output, who performs the steps,
and where these problems consistently occur (Anjard, 1998). Winch and Carr (2001)
explored empirically the use of process maps and protocols. A Process Protocol map
(Cooper et al., 1998) is shown in Fig. 5.3.
The protocol IT map was developed as a support tool for a generic design and
construction process (Aouad et. al, 1998). The IT map is shown in Fig. 5.4.
The Process Protocol toolkit was developed to automate process map creation by
using Process Protocol as a framework, and to allow users to create and customise
their specific project process map and manage the process and project information
(Wu, Aouad and Cooper, 2000; Wu,et al, 2000; Wu,et al, 2001, Fleming et al, 2000).
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
64
F
igu
re 5
.3:
Pro
cess
Pro
toco
l M
ap
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
65
Fig
ure
5.4
: IT
Map
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
66
5.7 RISK AND PROCESS PROTOCOL
The construction process consists of a group of activities that must be carried out
within every phase through which the construction project passes during its
execution. These activities are potential risk sources and are the foundation for risk
identification. If there is no division into activities, that is of processes into sub-
processes on several levels, it is much more difficult to apply the RIBA Plan of
Work, BPF Manual or Constructing Industry Board Guide for identifying and
structuring key risks that appear in every project phase. The Construction Process
Protocol gives a division of activities in sub-processes on 3 levels and enables the
risk management process to be subordinated to the construction process.
Lee, Cooper and Aouad, 2000, gave some advantages of the Process Protocol as an
industry standard. It is these advantages that form the basis for an efficient
framework for managing risk in construction projects:
1. It takes a whole project view. Process Protocol manages the project from
recognition of the need for a building to its operation and maintenance and it
is basically a generic process. Risk must also be managed through all the
project phases independently of project type and size. Risk management must
be placed in the function of the generic process, which means it is necessary
to develop process-driven risk management.
2. It recognises the interdependency of activities throughout the duration of
projects. Every activity that takes place within a project includes potentially
risky events. Identification, analysis and response to these risks are the basis
of every risk management framework. However, some activities are
interdependent, overlapping or stretch through one or several phases of the
project. This interdependence carries new risks which the framework must
manage.
3. It focuses on the front-end activities, paying attention to the identification,
definition and evaluation of client requirements. This makes it possible, at the
end of each phase, to implement a new identification, analysis and find an
appropriate response to the risks of the following phase.
Chapter 5
Process Protocol
67
4. It provides the potential to establish consistency to reduce ambiguity, and it
provides the adoption of a standard approach to performance measurement,
evaluation and control to facilitate continuous improvement in construction.
Consistency, performance measurement and continuous improvement in
construction are the foundation on which every risk management framework
must develop.
5. The stage-gate/phase-review process approach used facilitates concurrency
and progressive fixity and/or approval of information throughout the process.
It illustrates the need for completing all necessary phase activities before
proceeding to the next phase (hard gates) or allows concurrency (soft gates)
without jeopardising the overall project success. Some types and/or sources
of risk stretch through several project phases. Gates are the checkpoints
where prior activities are reviewed and the decision made to start the next
phase. The hard gate/soft gate philosophy may be directly applied to the risk
acceptancy philosophy. Thus in risk terminology hard gate means that the
risk is unacceptable and must be eliminated or transferred, and soft gate
means that the risk is acceptable provided it is managed.
6. It enables co-ordination of the participants and activities in construction
projects and identifies the responsible parties. Process Protocol groups
project participants in Activity Zones according to their responsibilities. In
Process Protocol risk is managed by introducing a new Activity Zone: risk
management.
7. It encourages the establishment of multi-functional teams including
stakeholders. This fosters a team environment and encourages appropriate
and timely communication and decision making. One of the greatest risks in
the early phases of the project is misunderstanding the client’s real demands.
As an answer to this risk, Process Protocol anticipates the client’s active
participation in all the project phases.
8. It facilitates a legacy archive whereby all project information is collectively
stored and can be used as a future learning vehicle. The legacy archive is a
very good place for accommodating the Risk Register and database that may
serve to identify, or analyse risk.
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Process Protocol
68
5.8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This chapter showed the Construction Process Protocol within which the framework
for process-driven risk management will be developed. It showed the principles on
which it was developed, the state-gate process, Process Protocol Stages/Phases,
Activity Zones, and the Process Protocol and IT Map.
It also showed the advantages of Process Protocol in comparison with other plans of
work, which is why it was chosen as the construction process within which the
proposed framework for process-driven risk management was developed.
The next chapter will show the identification of the key risks in all the phases
through which the construction project passes according to Process Protocol.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
69
6 IDENTIFYING AND STRUCTURING RISK
WITHIN THE PROCESS PROTOCOL
6.1 INTRODUCTION
The preceding chapter presented the idea of the Process Protocol and described the
principles on which it developed. It showed the division into phases through which,
according to the Process Protocol, every construction project passes in its
development. It showed the advantages of the Process Protocol with respect to other
plans of work. The risk management framework in construction projects proposed in
this paper is based on the Process Protocol developed by Cooper R. et al ( 1998).
In this chapter the key risks that may appear in all construction projects, regardless of
size or type, are identified and described from the aspect of the description, goals and
status of each phase in the Process Protocol and the activities that must be performed
before and during the phase. The list of key risks and identification of project-related
risks are the first step in implementing the proposed framework. Using this
framework, risk will be managed in all the project phases, regardless of the type and
size of the project. Risk management will become part of a generic process and lead
to the development of process-driven risk management.
6.2 IDENTIFYING RISK IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
As it unfolds the construction projects passes through several phases and in each of
them it is possible to identify a large number of potential risks, i.e. events whose
unfavourable outcome may be adverse for project success. Something could go
wrong during practically any activity in project realisation. It would be very difficult
to make a general list of all the risks for construction projects of any size or type,
which would cover all the specific features of a particular project. A list of this kind
would contain a certain number of high-exposure risks, but also a great number of
risks whose exposure is such that they could practically be neglected. There would
never be enough data for a quantitative analysis of a large number of risks, whereas a
qualitative analysis of a large number of risks would be a time-consuming process
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
70
subject to inconsistent assessments because of the great number of decisions that the
risk manager would have to make to obtain their exposure and determine risk
acceptability.
Reference sources provide a large number of attempts to compile a specific risk list
in construction projects (table 6.1.). Most of these lists group risks in categories thus
forming a hierarchical risk structure. The risk manager may analyse and compare the
risk exposures of entire risk categories, he may select one or more key risks from a
category and disregard all the others, or he may analyse risk acceptability for all the
identified risks in a particular category.
Table 6.1 shows risk categories in construction projects according to several authors
(Carter et al., 1994; Godfrey, 1996; Smith, 1999; Dey, 2001; RAMP, 2002). The risk
categories in other industries are similar. These risks may appear and be analysed in
all construction projects regardless of size or type. Although similar risks often
appear under different names, the table shows the great diversity in identifying risk
categories among different authors. The five risk lists in the table contain as many as
31 risk categories.
Risk identification with the help of previously existing risk lists is completely
adapted to risk-driven project management and does not take into account that
executing a construction project is a process and that risk management must be
subordinated to that process. Thus none of the risk lists in the table, or their
combination, can be used for process-driven risk management, which is the approach
to risk management proposed in this work.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
71
Table 6.1: Risk lists
RISK
CARTER at
al. (1994)
GODFREY
(1996)
SMITH
(1999)
DEY
(2001)
RAMP
(2002)
1 Political x x x x
2 Environmental x x
3 Planning x
4 Market x x
5 Economic x x x
6 Financial x x x x x
7 Natural/Act of God x x x
8 Project x x
9 Technical x x
10 Human x
11 Criminal x
12 Safety x
13 Strategic x
14 Contractual x
15 Master Plan x
16 Definition x
17 Process x
18 Product x x
19 Organisational x x
20 Operational x
21 Maintenance x
22 External x
23 Legal x
24 Social x
25 Communications x
26 Geographical x
27 Geotechnical x
28 Construction x
29 Technological x
30 Statutory clearance risk x
31 Business x
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
72
6.3 RISK IDENTIFICATION BASED ON PROCESS
PROTOCOL
Process-driven risk management implies that the risk management process, and thus
also risk identification, which is part of it, are subordinated to the construction
process. A process is a group of activities undertaken with the goal of successful
project realisation, and these activities are potential risk sources that may lead to an
unsuccessful project. The construction process consists of phases through which the
project passes. Regardless of the project characteristics, the key risks of the
construction project are the risks that may prevent the goals of a particular phase in
the process from being achieved.
The goals of each phase depend on several activities or processes that affect phase
realisation in various ways. Not achieving the goals of one or more of these
processes may lead to non-achievement of the goals of the phase they belong to.
Depending on their complexity, some processes contain sub-processes that may be
broken down even further.
Independently of level, the processes in a particular phase that have the greatest
probability and the greatest impact on the time, cost and quality, and thus also the
greatest bearing on successfully achieving the goals of that phase, are the optimum
choice as sources of key risks that are not project related. This means that the key
risks on which the success of the process depends can be reached by analysing the
construction process. In this way risk management is placed in the service of the
construction process, and leads to process improvement.
Process Protocol II, developed by R.Cooper at Salford University in cooperation with
Lougborough University, resulted in breaking down high level processes (Level I)
into sub-processes (Level II and Level III) in each phase through which, according to
Process Protocol, the construction project passes from Demonstrating the Need to
Operation and Maintenance (Wu, Aouad and Cooper, 2000). Process maps were
made for each level. These process maps show the advantage of Process Protocol
over other plans of work because they provide better insight into the elements of the
process and thus also into risk identification. Figure 6.1 shows an example of
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
73
dividing a process into sub-processes according to Process Protocol II. For Phase
Zero, Demonstrating the Need, it shows the division of the high-level process
Establish the Need for a Project (Level I) into sub-processes (Level II and Level III).
The author of this research used process maps of this kind (see Appendix 2) to
compile the proposed list of key risks (see Figures 6.2, 6.3 and 6.4) for all the phases
through which the project passes according to Process Protocol, from Demonstrating
the Need to Operation and Maintenance. It should by emphasized that this is the
proposed list of key risks. In the future this list might be modified and extended
applying the framework to construction projects in practice.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
74
Development Management
Establish The Need For A
Project
Dev
Prod
Proj
FM
Res
H&S
Des
Proc
Statement Of
Need(Initial)
Development Management
Determine Initial Statement Of
Need
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Raise / Define The Business
Need
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Identify Key Objectives
Dev
Prod
Proj
FM
Res
H&S
Des
Proc
Development Management
Review + Update Business
Strategy
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Establish Sources Of Funding
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Conduct Market Research
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Monitor Costs
Dev
Prod
Proj
FM
Res
H&S
Des
Proc
Facility Management
Identify Space Requirements
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Consider Site Assembly
Issues
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Monitor Business Product
Ranges
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Identify Market
Segmentation
Dev
Prod
Proj
FM
Res
H&S
Des
Proc
Development Management
Consider Revenue Issues
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Facility Management
Consider Operations
Management
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Development Management
Update Strategy & Product
Placement
Dev
Prod
Proj
FM
Res
H&S
Des
Proc
Facilities Management
Challenge and Review the
Need
Dev
Prod
Proj
FM
Res
H&S
Des
Proc
Facility Management
Historical Data Analysis
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Facility Management
Surveys And Analysis To
Challenge The Need
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Facility Management
Research User Requirements
Dev Proj Res Des
Prod FM H&S Proc
Figure 6.1: Development of sub-processes
Abbreviations: Dev - Development Management, Proj - Project Management, Res -
Resource Management, Des - Design Management, Prod - Production Management,
FM - Facility Management, H&S - Health and Safety Management, Proc - Process
Management
Activity zone(s) which own the
process irrespective of level
Participation from other Activity
zones
PHASE ZERO-DEMONSTRATING THE NEED
1.1.1.1.1.1 L
E
V
E
L
I
1.1.1.1.1.2 L
E
V
E
L
I
I 1.1.1.1.1.3 L
E
V
E
L
I
I
I
Process name Level I
Level II
Level III
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
75
Fig
ure
6.2
: R
isk l
ists
for
Pre
-Pro
ject
Phas
es
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
76
Fig
ure
6.3
: R
isk l
ists
for
Pre
-Const
ruct
ion P
has
es
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
77
Fig
ure
6.4
: R
isk l
ists
for
Const
ruct
ion a
nd P
ost
-Const
ruct
ion P
has
es
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
78
PHASE ZERO – DEMONSTRATING THE NEED
Risk 0-1: Unsatisfactory Market Research
In this earliest project phase it is necessary to research the market of existing
structures which may help the client express his requirements or demands as clearly
as possible. This is especially important as some of the stakeholders will be
participating in the realisation of such a project for the first and only time. When they
see what they could obtain, clients will be able to express what they really want
much more clearly. Without market research and the presentation of the research
results to clients there is a significant risk that the goals of phase zero will not be
fulfilled.
Risk 0-2: Ill-defined Initial Statement of Need
All the client’s needs, goals and demands should be described in as much detail as
possible in a document according to Process Protocol called Statement of Need. In
this early project phase it is very difficult to define all the demands and needs. In
further project phases the elaboration and evaluation of potential solutions will lead
to their reduction or may even extend the demands of the client, i.e. the stakeholder.
Risk 0-3: Incomplete Stakeholder List
Each stakeholder has his needs and demands, depending on his investment in the
project. An incomplete stakeholder list makes it impossible to form all sources of
funding and means that demands differing from earlier ones may appear. An
incomplete stakeholder list is a risk for the entire phase zero not fulfilling its basic
goals.
Risk 0-4: No Historical Data Analysis
In the earliest project phase, after the client’s needs, goals and demands have been
defined, it is necessary to analyse available data about all risk sources on similar
projects that have already been executed. There is also a risk of leaving out of the
risk list a risk that in the past showed significant risk exposure in a project phase.
Analysing available data considerably contributes to a better understanding of the
problem.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
79
Risk 0-5: Poor Communication
In the earliest project phase it is necessary to establish a communication strategy
within the management team participating in the project phase (development,
resources, facilities, project and process management) and between the management
team and the client and stakeholders. Success in realising the goals of phase zero
greatly depends on this communication.
6.3.1 PHASE ONE – CONCEPTION OF NEED
Risk 1-1: Ill-defined Final Statement of Need
In this phase all the client’s needs, goals and demands should be finally defined and
the Statement of Need finalised. This will serve as the basis for defining potential
solutions. There is a risk of leaving out potentially good solutions because all the
client’s needs were not sufficiently investigated.
Risk 1-2: Changes in Stakeholder List
Since this is the phase when potential solutions are proposed any change in the
stakeholder list leads to the risk that introducing new stakeholders will change earlier
demands and in fact lead to the rejection of some solutions already proposed.
Risk 1-3: Poor Assessment of Stakeholder Impact
A stakeholder’s investment in the project defines his impact. The greater a
stakeholder’s impact the higher his needs will rank over the needs of others. A poor
assessment of stakeholder impact may lead to stakeholders with a smaller impact
having their needs satisfied and stakeholders who consider they were assigned too
small an impact in relation to their investment being dissatisfied and abandoning the
project.
Risk 1-4: Poor Communication
The communication strategy must be added to in every project phase. In this phase
there is a risk of bad communication between all the previous participants and the
design management, which joins the project in this phase and proposes potential
solutions on the basis of needs, investigations and environmental impact assessment.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
80
Risk 1-5: Incomplete Identification of Potential Solution to the Need
The design management should propose a sufficient number of potential solutions to
be used as a basis for feasibility studies. All the proposed solutions must be as well
defined as possible, must be practicable, contain a description of the necessary
investigations and a preliminary analysis of possible environmental impact.
6.3.2 PHASE TWO – OUTLINE FEASIBILITY
Risk 2-1: Poor Communication
The design management, which proposed the potential solutions, must among other
things exchange additional information with the management team about needs,
investigations, environmental impact and funding, and carry out feasibility studies
for every potential solution. Bad communication may directly affect feasibility study
results because all the relevant information remains inaccessible.
Risk 2-2: Poor Consideration of Site Investigations
Various kinds, volume and intensity of investigations must be planned for every
potential solution. In this phase it is necessary to gather all the available information
about the soil on which the object is planned and make detailed plans for all the
investigations necessary for each option, so as to assess the costs of investigations
and foundations. Investigation work is expensive as a rule and its inadequate
planning risks entering the feasibility study with a wrong estimate of investigation
costs and choosing the wrong solution for foundation.
Risk 2-3: Poor Consideration of Environmental Impact
Any potential solution must be satisfactorily incorporated in the environment. Poor
consideration of environmental impact risks later analysis showing that the solution
must be rejected or that its realisation will cost too much. It is necessary for the
feasibility study to exhaustively predict how the facility will affect the environment
and which measures must be undertaken for any potential solution, so that the costs
may be calculated.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
81
Risk 2-4: Ill-defined Structure of Funding and Financial Options
To make a feasibility study for every proposed solution detailed knowledge of the
sources, structure and manner of funding is necessary.
Risk 2-5: Unrealistic Completion Dates for Each Option
Unrealistic assessment of completion dates for each option greatly affects feasibility
study results.
Risk 2-6: Inadequate Cost/Benefit Analysis for Each Option
A cost/benefit analysis must be made for each option on the basis of available
information, not doing this risks the optimal option not being chosen.
6.3.3 PHASE THREE – SUBSTANTIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY &
OUTLINE FINANCIAL AUTHORITY
Risk 3-1: Poor Communication
This phase covers, among others, site investigations, environmental impact
assessment and substantive feasibility study. Quality information exchange between
site, laboratory and office is necessary to realise the goals of this phase.
Risk 3-2: Unsatisfactory Site Investigations
Planned site and laboratory investigations for the chosen solution are carried out in
this phase. The quality and scope of investigations is especially important because
their results serve to choose the foundation concept, estimate costs and make the
substantive feasibility study. Risk exposure evaluation must take into account that
designing will begin in future phases and that this will require additional
investigation. The risk become very great if additional investigation is not
undertaken in the design phases.
Risk 3-3: Poor Assessment of Environmental Impact
The costs of environmental impact assessment that are included in the feasibility
study of the solution chosen. The design solution that will be developed in the
following phases may change the results of the environmental impact assessment
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
82
made in this phase. As in the case of investigations, risk become significant if
environmental impact is not assessed in future phases according to the design
solution developed.
Risk 3-4: Ill-defined Structure of Funding and Financial Options
It is necessary to precisely define the structure and manner of funding, with all
elements, for the needs of the substantive feasibility study. There must be no more
unknowns about the structure of funding in this phase.
Risk 3-5: Inadequate Substantive Cost-Benefit Analysis
It is always possible that the cost-benefit analysis chosen might be inadequate, or
poorly implemented. Its results strongly impact the entire feasibility study and thus
also the success of this phase.
6.3.4 PHASE FOUR – OUTLINE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
Risk 4-1: Poor Communication
Making the outline conceptual design requires good communication and coordination
between the designing office, the site where the necessary onsite investigations are
performed and the laboratory where the necessary laboratory investigations are
performed. Good communication becomes even more important when we consider
that making the outline conceptual design is an iterative process.
Risk 4-2: Lack of Site Investigations Update
Investigations carried out for the needs of the substantive feasibility study are not
sufficient to turn the option into the outline design. It is necessary for each design
solution to predict the foundation concept, which demands additional information
about the site and this means new investigations.
Risk 4-3: Lack of Environmental Impact Assessment Update
A new environmental impact assessment must be made for every design solution
because this can considerably influence the option chosen.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
83
Risk 4-4: Inadequate Evaluation of Outline Concept Design Alternatives
Several design solutions are presented in this phase, which are evaluated and one
chosen for further elaboration. The criteria are costs, functionality, aesthetics, fitting
into the environment etc. The variety of the criteria makes it very difficult to carry
out the evaluation and select the optimum design solution. After this phase only one
conceptual design is left.
Risk 4-5: Inaccurate Total Cost of Chosen Outline Conceptual Design Estimate
The estimate of total costs for the chosen outline conceptual design depends on how
far the design solution has been elaborated and is important for closing the structure
of financing. Considering the many details that must still be resolved, significant
mistakes are possible. Estimating total costs already in this phase of the project
makes it possible to keep planned expenses for project realisation under control.
6.3.5 PHASE FIVE – FULL CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
Risk 5-1: Poor Communication
For the needs of the full conceptual design, the communication system now also
includes information about what potential suppliers can provide. Good
communication and coordination between the designing office, the site where the
necessary onsite investigations are performed and the laboratory where the necessary
laboratory investigations are performed continues to be necessary.
Risk 5-2: Poor Schematic Design for Elements of Chosen Solution
Deficiencies in an inadequate elaboration of the full conceptual design are a limiting
factor for making the coordinated design in the next phase. In this phase the full
conceptual design must be elaborated in as much detail as possible on the basis of
available information.
Risk 5-3: Inadequate Maintenance Plan
In this phase it is necessary to define the maintenance strategy to be implemented in
Phase 9. Periodic inspections must be planned, maintenance work defined,
maintenance costs estimated, and forecasts made for work organisation, human
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
84
resource requirements and cost and quality control. An adequate maintenance plan
must provide adequate maintenance resources for the maintenance work to be
performed, ensure that any particular maintenance work on the building is necessary
and inevitable, and provide an answer to whether spending more on maintenance
would be advantageous.
Risk 5-4: Inadequate Health and Safety plan
In accordance with valid CDM regulations, all the necessary measures must be
anticipated to ensure safety and health of all the participants in construction. It is the
client's responsibility to comply with the CDM regulations and therefore provisions
for reporting on those issues should be made.
Risk 5-5: Inaccurate Total Cost of Chosen Concept Design Solution Estimate
Total costs can be calculated with considerable precision on the basis of the full
conceptual design because all the elements that significantly affect costs are known.
Thus the cost estimate in this phase is very important because significant changes can
still be made in the project to achieve lower costs.
6.3.6 PHASE SIX – COORDINATED DESIGN, PROCUREMENT & FULL
FINANCIAL AUTHORITY
Risk 6-1: Poor Communication
In this phase all the major elements are finally designed. All the main details of
execution, supply and funding are elaborated thus completing the coordinated
product model. It is indispensable for good communication and coordination to exist
between all previous participants in the project.
Risk 6-2: Poor Detailed Design for Elements of Chosen Solution
Deficiencies in an inadequate elaboration of the coordinated design make it
impossible to execute the facility. Designing must also address issues such as
possibilities of supplying material, number of workers and amount of equipment that
can be used at the same time and all the other elements that affect the construction
process.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
85
Risk 6-3: Lack of Site Investigations Update
Detailed designing that includes execution technology may demand additional
investigations for adapting the coordinated design to the given technology.
Risk 6-4: Poor Contractual Strategy
A good contracting strategy identifies events and factors that could affect the quality,
time and costs for completing the facility. In developing an adequate contracting
strategy it is necessary to bear in mind the selection of organisation structure in
project control, type of contract, method of choosing contractors, selection and
execution of tender documentation, including contract clauses that allow shifting
risks between investor and contractor, sub-contractors, suppliers and insurance.
Risk 6-5: Unsatisfactory Potential Suppliers Skills and Inability to Fulfil
Requirements
Before execution it is necessary to analyse whether potential suppliers can satisfy all
the demands that will be placed before them. Their capacities and limitations may
affect some of the design solutions and building planned speed.
6.3.7 PHASE SEVEN – PRODUCTION INFORMATION
Risk 7-1: Poor Communication
Preparations for construction require good communication and coordination between
all the project participants.
Risk 7-2: Unsatisfactory Health and Safety Plan
Before construction begins it is necessary to complete a Health & Safety Plan in
accordance with current CDM regulations.
Risk 7-3 Unsatisfactory Maintenance Plan
Immediately before construction begins it is necessary to complete a maintenance
strategy and make a maintenance plan. Maintenance should be viewed in the context
of the entire construction process. The maintenance plan also contains a maintenance
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
86
cost estimate during the life cycle of the structure, so an unsatisfactory maintenance
plan may threaten the future function and safety of the facility.
Risk 7-4: Unsatisfactory Procurement Plan
Immediately before construction begins all the participants in construction must be
known, their human and mechanical resources and their material supply potentials.
Construction must be divided into work packages to the smallest detail.
Risk 7-5: Inability to Finalise Total Cost Based on Production Information
In this phase sufficient information must be available to calculate total construction
costs with significant certainty. The risk of exceeding construction costs must be
solved through a contract with the contractor.
6.3.8 PHASE EIGHT – CONSTRUCTION
Risk 8-1: Inappropriate Changes to Design Resulting from Construction Phase
Unexpected circumstances always appear during construction that demand changes
in project solutions to adapt them to the situation onsite. The design management
must adapt quickly, that is find new solution to continue construction with the
necessary quality, minimum costs and in the planned time.
Risk 8-2: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Quality of Construction Work
Construction work quality control must run parallel with construction. In addition to
quality control required by standards, it is necessary to monitor whether work is
running according to project demands. If there is deviation from project demands
leading to decreased safety, changes must be made in the project and their effects
monitored.
Risk 8-3: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Cost of Construction Work
Controlling costs during construction must ensure that the forecasted total costs are
not overstepped. If this should occur the reasons must be analysed and necessary
measures undertaken to return costs to the planned level. Although the risk of
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
87
exceeding construction costs is solved through contracts with the contractor, these
costs must nevertheless be properly monitored.
Risk 8-4: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Progress of Construction
Monitoring construction progress enables keeping given construction deadlines
under control. Poor construction progress could be the contractor’s fault, but it could
also arise from circumstances no one can control, such as bad weather and the like.
Risk 8-5: Lack of Onsite Resources And Labour Management
Any lack of planned onsite resources and poor labour management lead to
overstepping the planned deadline, inadequate quality and increase of planned costs.
6.3.9 PHASE NINE – OPERATION & MAINTENANCE
Risk 9-1: Unsatisfactory Building Performance Measurement
To ensure a satisfactory level of the structure’s safety and functionality during its life
cycle it is necessary to make building performance measurements at the appropriate
level and of appropriate quality.
Risk 9-2: Lack of Maintenance Strategies Update
Maintenance strategies must often be changed and supplemented during the facility’s
use. It is especially important to determine maintenance priorities in accordance with
planned and ensured resources.
Risk 9-3: Lack of Lifecycle Budgetary Requirements Update
Expenses unforeseen in the maintenance plan will appear during the facility’s
lifecycle. The safety and functionality of the facility depends on whether new
maintenance funding can be obtained, and how much.
Chapter 6
Identifying and structuring risk within the Process Protocol
88
6.4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This chapter has shown the identification of key risks for every Process Protocol
based construction project. Every risk management process in the construction
industry (see Chapter 3) starts with the identification of risks in such a way that risks
are chosen from the proposed risk list or risk categories, which are the same for all
projects, after which project related risks are added to them. The risk exposures of
entire risk categories can be analysed and compared, or one or more key risks may be
selected from a particular category. A risk identification methodology of this kind is
adapted to what is known as risk-driven project management.
To increase efficiency in the construction industry it is also necessary to develop and
to continuously advance the group of activities needed for successful project
realisation. Process Protocol I resulted in 10 phases through which the construction
project passes in its evolution. High-level processes that have to be performed are
identified in each phase. Process Protocol II proclaimed these high-level processes as
Level I, and then proceeded to divide the Level I processes into Level II sub-
processes, and these, in turn and if necessary, into Level III sub-processes. Thus the
realisation of any construction project is broken up into elementary processes. The
processes on any level are potential risk sources and may serve as the basis for a risk
list in each phase. The risk list in the proposed framework has a total of 49 risks, that
is, an average of 5 risks per phase, to which project related risks can be added in each
phase. This makes risk management part of a generic process leading to the
development of process-driven risk management.
The next chapter shows how the framework for managing risk in construction
projects is developed. The framework calls for cyclical risk management in every
phase the construction project passes through according to the Process Protocol. The
risk identification described in this chapter will be followed by quantitative or
qualitative risk analysis, the determination of risk exposure and risk acceptability,
and a proposal of adequate risk response. Risk response may produce new risks in
the same or in the next phase, which must be included in process-driven risk
management.
Chapter 7
A Framework for managing risks in construction projects
89
7 A FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING RISKS IN
CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The preceding chapter provided the proposed generic list of key risks that appear in
all construction projects, for each phase of the project according to the Process
Protocol, from Demonstrating the Need to Operation and Maintenance. The risk
management team may also identify other project-related risks in each phase.
This chapter shows the framework for process-driven risk management in Process
Protocol based construction projects. The Process Protocol divides the execution of a
construction project in the 10 phases shown in Chapter 5. According to the proposed
framework, cyclical risk management in performed in each phase of the construction
process. First risk probability and risk impact are determined for each identified key
risk, and thus also risk exposure, and then a risk priority list is formed and a risk
response strategy defined, depending on risk acceptability. If risk response leads to
the appearance of new risks, a new cycle of risk identification, analysis and response
begins. Risk management is a dynamic process because it is carried out continuously
in every subsequent project phase in accordance with the changeable circumstances
in which the process runs.
7.2 THE CYCLICAL RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Chapter 2 shows the cyclical risk management process, which is part of the proposed
framework and which is carried out independently for each phase of the construction
project in accordance with the Process Protocol. It is necessary to determine risk
probability and risk impact for each identified risk in a particular phase, calculate the
corresponding risk exposure, and depending on risk acceptability define a strategy of
risk response. The procedure is repeated for each successive phase.
The risk list analysed in a particular phase is compiled by adding to the risk list
common to all construction projects, a risk list connected to that specific project.
Chapter 7
A Framework for managing risks in construction projects
90
These specific risks are identified after investigating potential risk sources linked
with the project, unfavourable events that include risks and unfavourable effects that
will occur should an undesirable scenario take place. After the risks have been
identified, they are numbered. A risk is designated by a three-digit number, for
example: Risk 503. The first digit marks the number of the phase under analysis (the
5th phase in the example), i.e. the phase that the risk appears in according to the
Process Protocol. Since the Process Protocol has phases from 0 to 9, one digit is
sufficient to designate the phase. The other two digits show the order of the risk in
the phase under analysis (risk no. 3 on the list belonging to Phase 5). Two digits are
quite sufficient for this purpose because each list will contain less than 99 key risks
important for the phase. Figure 7.1 shows the risk list with the corresponding
designations.
Figure 7.1: Risk list for Phase X with the corresponding designations
For each identified risk it is necessary to determine risk exposure, and depending on
it risk acceptability. Risk exposure is the product of risk probability and risk impact.
Risk probability is a dimensionless value. Risk may impact time, cost or quality, but
in the end any impact can be expressed in monetary units. This means that risk
exposure has the dimension of the monetary unit used in calculations. Consequently,
risk exposure for a particular risk may acquire any value and it is calculated
independently of all the other risks in the phase. The absolute value of risk exposure
PHASE X
Risk X01
Risk X02
Risk X03
Risk X04
Risk X05
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for a particular risk, viewed in itself, has practically no usable value so it is important
to determine how much smaller or larger the risk exposure of a particular risk is with
respect to the risk exposures of the other risks in the phase. Determining the risk
exposures of all the identified risks in a particular phase and placing them in an
interrelationship allows the formation of a risk priority list. The position of the risk in
this list, that is the relative value of its exposure with reference to that of the other
risks in the phase, determines which resources will be engaged in the planned risk
response. The risk priority list can be determined using a quantitative, qualitative or
mixed approach.
7.3 RISK PRIORITY LIST - QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
The quantitative approach in forming the priority list implies that risk probability and
risk impact can be explicitly calculated using one of the known quantitative risk
analysis methods. For this a relevant database must be available, to use in forming
the probability distribution, i.e. to enable the direct calculation of impact on time,
cost and quality. In this case a completely determined and consistent procedure can
be used to determine the priority list, which is shown below.
7.3.1 RISK PROBABILITY - QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
Risk probability must be determined for each identified risk. The probability that a
certain risk will occur can be calculated if all the necessary elements for this kind of
analysis exist, especially a statistically relevant database about past experiences and
similar events, which can be used as a basis for the distribution function.
After the probability associated with each risk has been determined by one of the
known methods of quantitative analysis, all the risks in a particular phase are
weighted to obtain their relative values, that is, the order of risks according to their
probability. The weighting or normalisation of probability is carried out by dividing
the risk probability of each risk with the sum of the risk probabilities of all the risks
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absolute
probability normalised
probability
in the phase. This gives new probabilities whose sum is 1, which means that the risks
in the phase have now become a random variable.
Let, for example, the probabilities of the 5 risks in Phase X be, respectively, 0.32,
0.21, 0.75, 0.93 and 0.44.
The sum of all the probabilities is 0.32 + 0.21 + 0.75 + 0.93 + 0.44 = 2.65.
The normalised probabilities are now, respectively:
pX01 = 0.32/2.65 = 0.12
pX02 = 0.21/2.65 = 0.08
pX03 = 0.75/2.65 = 0.28
pX04 = 0.93/2.65 = 0.36
pX05 = 0.44/2.65 = 0.16.
The sum of all the normalised probabilities is 0.12 + 0.08 + 0.28 + 0.36 + 0.16 = 1.
Figure 7.2 shows the normalised or relative probabilities for the above example.
These normalised probabilities will be used to calculate risk exposure.
Figure 7.2: Normalised or relative probabilities for the occurrence of each risk in
Phase X
Risk X01
Risk X02
Risk X03
Risk X04
Risk X05
PHASE X
X01 0.32
X02 0.21
X03 0.75
X04 0.93
X05 0.44
X01 0.121
X02 0.079
X03 0.283
X04 0.351
X05 0.166 --------
= 1.000
RISK PROBABILITY
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normalised
influence
7.3.2 RISK IMPACT- QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
There are many ways in which a risk source can affect the project unfavourably. The
consequences can vary, but they show as longer construction, that is project
realisation, decreased quality and, finally, increased costs. The basic purpose of risk
management in a project is to keep under control the impacts on time, cost and
quality.
Impacts on time, cost and quality are not interdependent although the prolongation of
planned construction time and the decrease of quality may, for most projects, finally
be expressed in terms of money so that every risk impact has the dimension of a
monetary unit. However, for a certain number of projects it is not enough to express
all impacts through money, instead, priorities must be clearly determined with
respect to time, cost and quality. Often the project has to be finished in a given time
so additional resources must be engaged to increase efficiency. This leads to higher
costs than had the work lasted longer using the existing resources. In this case the
goal is to weight the risk sources that affect time higher than those that affect cost.
There are also cases when quality is much more important than costs, so risks that
affect quality but have low costs, should they be realised, must be given greater
impact than those that affect time but cause higher costs.
Time, cost and quality are weighted by defining their normalised interdependency,
i.e. their relative impacts on the project where the sum of all the impacts is 1. Figure
7.3 shows an example of weighting.
Figure 7.3: Normalised impact of time, cost and quality on the project
TIME
COST
QUALITY
PHASE X
TIME 0.25
COST 0.65
QUALITY 0.10
-------
= 1.00
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absolute
impact
normalised
impact
It is impossible to determine these values exactly because they reflect stakeholder-
generated priorities. If no such priorities have been given, and time and quality may
be expressed through increased costs, then it is enough to assign all the impacts the
value of 1/3 of the project and thus avoid any kind of preference between time, cost
and quality.
After weighting and finding the interdependency of time, cost and quality, the impact
of each identified risk in the phase under analysis must be determined independently
of time, cost and quality. Impacts on time may be expressed in arbitrary units, for
example in days, and impacts on quality in expected percentage of quality loss. This
is irrelevant for the proposed framework because all the impacts are normalised to
obtain their comparative interdependency. Normalisation is performed in the same
way as for probability, by dividing the impact of each risk on time, cost or quality
with the sum of all the impacts in the phase, thus making the sum of all the impacts
equal to 1.
Figures 7.4, 7.5 and 7.6 show an example of this kind of normalisation.
Figure 7.4: Normalised risk impact on time in Phase X
Risk X01
Risk X02
Risk X03
Risk X04
Risk X05
PHASE X
X01 10 days
X02 15 days
X03 5 days
X04 45 days
X05 25 days
X01 0.100
X02 0.150
X03 0.050
X04 0.450
X05 0.250 --------
= 1.000
IMPACT ON TIME
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absolute
impact
normalised
impact
absolute
impact
normalised
impact
Figure 7.5: Normalised risk impact on cost in Phase X
Figure 7.6: Normalised risk impact on quality in Phase X
Risk X01
Risk X02
Risk X03
Risk X04
Risk X05
PHASE X
X01 10000 £
X02 8000 £
X03 12000 £
X04 35000 £
X05 20000 £
X01 0.118
X02 0.094
X03 0.141
X04 0.412
X05 0.235 --------
= 1.000
IMPACT ON COST
Risk X01
Risk X02
Risk X03
Risk X04
Risk X05
PHASE X
X01 15 %
X02 12 %
X03 25 %
X04 20 %
X05 46 %
X01 0.127
X02 0.102
X03 0.212
X04 0.169
X05 0.390 --------
= 1.000
IMPACT ON QUALITY
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The final normalised risk impact for every identified risk in each phase is obtained
by combining the normalised impacts of time, cost and quality on the project with the
individual impacts of the analysed risks on time, cost and quality. This is done by
using the method of simple weighting with averaging shown in Table 7.1.
Table 7.1: Calculating normalised risk impact in Phase X
TIME COST QUALITY Risk impact
Risk X01 0.25 x 0.100 + 0.65 x 0.118 + 0.10 x 0.127 = 0.114
Risk X02 0.25 x 0.150 + 0.65 x 0.094 + 0.10 x 0.102 = 0.109
Risk X03 0.25 x 0.050 + 0.65 x 0.141 + 0.10 x 0.212 = 0.126
Risk X04 0.25 x 0.450 + 0.65 x 0.412 + 0.10 x 0.169 = 0.397
Risk X05 0.25 x 0.250 + 0.65 x 0.235 + 0.10 x 0.390 = 0.254
Total = 1.000
Table 7.2 shows the calculation of risk impact in cases when priorities between time,
cost and quality have not been defined. In this case each of them is assigned the
normalised value of 1/3.
Table 7.2: Calculating normalised risk impact in Phase X in cases when priorities
between time, cost and quality have not been defined
TIME COST QUALITY Risk impact
Risk X01 1/3 x 0.100 + 1/3 x 0.118 + 1/3 x 0.127 = 0.115
Risk X02 1/3 x 0.150 + 1/3 x 0.094 + 1/3 x 0.102 = 0.115
Risk X03 1/3 x 0.050 + 1/3 x 0.141 + 1/3 x 0.212 = 0.134
Risk X04 1/3 x 0.450 + 1/3 x 0.412 + 1/3 x 0.169 = 0.344
Risk X05 1/3 x 0.250 + 1/3 x 0.235 + 1/3 x 0.390 = 0.292
Total = 1.000
The above example shows that when there are special priorities between time, cost
and quality, the impact of some risks increases and the impact of others decreases,
but on the whole this has no significant influence.
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7.3.3 RISK EXPOSURE- QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
After risk probability and risk impact have been determined for every risk in Phase
X, risk exposure can be calculated as the product of risk probability and risk impact.
Table 7.3 shows the calculation.
Table 7.3: Calcualting risk exposure in Phase X
PHASE X PROBABILITY IMPACT RISK EXPOSURE
Risk X01 0.121 x 0.114 = 0.014
Risk X02 0.179 x 0.109 = 0.020
Risk X03 0.283 x 0.126 = 0.036
Risk X04 0.351 x 0.397 = 0.139
Risk X05 0.166 x 0.254 = 0.042
The risk exposures obtained serve to form a risk priority list, which will be used to
plan risk response and anticipate and distribute the resources to implement it. Table
7.4 shows the priority list in Phase X.
Table 7.4: Priority list in Phase X
PHASE X RISK EXPOSURE
Risk X04 0.139
Risk X05 0.042
Risk X03 0.036
Risk X02 0.020
Risk X01 0.014
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7.4 RISK PRIORITY LIST - QUALITATIVE APPROACH
What happens most often in real life is that the risk management team does not have
at its disposal the relevant database about earlier projects that could be used to form
the probability distribution function and determine risk probability. It does not have,
either, all the necessary indicators for directly calculating the effects, that is the
impact the risky event would have on time, cost and quality. In such cases the risk
priority list is determined by using one of the three techniques for qualitative risk
analysis that various authors have already used in risk management. These are:
1. Multi-attribute Utility Theory,
2. Fuzzy Analysis,
3. Analytical Hierarchy Process.
A short description and the possible use of these techniques in the proposed
framework follows, including the reasons why one of them is more suitable for
forming the risk priority list within the proposed framework than the other two.
7.4.1 MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY
The multi-attribute utility theory is a well-known decision-making technique used
under conditions of certainty and under conditions of uncertainty (Luce and Raiffa,
1957; Keeney and Raiffa, 1976, Chankone and Haimes, 1983, Saaty, 1994; Flanagan
and Norman, 1993). It is used in cases when the best alternative solution must be
chosen, i.e. for compiling a priority list of the alternatives offered. Alternatives are
weighted with respect to one or more given criteria with the purpose of calculating
the overall utility function for each alternative. The value of the overall utility
function is used to form the priority list of alternatives, that is, to provide the best
alternative. Kangari and Boyer (1981), Hwang and Yoon (1981), Ibbs and Crandall
(1982), Moselhi and Deb (1993) and others used the multi-attribute utility theory as
a technique for qualitative risk analysis.
The value of the overall utility function for each alternative is calculated in 4 steps.
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The first step is defining one or more criteria or attributes with respect to which the
alternatives offered will be valued.
The second step is weighting the given criteria. All criteria are not equally important
for the decision-maker. He assigns each criterion the corresponding importance or
weight taking care that the sum of all the weights equals 1. In this step alternatives
are not taken into consideration and they have no effect on the result.
The third step is determining the utility function for each given criterion. First each
alternative is assessed with respect to the given criteria. The values may be expressed
numerically or statistically by their distribution function. Qualitative assessments by
decision-making managers are turned into a statistical distribution function used to
calculate the statistical parameters of the distribution, such as mean, variance etc. For
the sake of simplicity this presentation of how to apply the multi-attribute utility
theory in the proposed framework will use only the mean (). Moselhi and Deb
(1993) showed the use of the other statistical parameters. A utility function is then
formed for each criterion, using the so-called certainty equivalent method in which
the decision-maker subjectively assesses the discrete values of the utility function,
after which these values are fitted using an exponential, logarithmic or polynomial
function.
The fourth step is calculating the overall utility function for each alternative by
adding up the products of the weight of each criterion and the value of the
corresponding utility function. Determining the overall utility function in this way,
by simply adding up the above products, is possible only if the given criteria are
independent of the given goal. The priority list of alternatives is formed according to
the value of the overall utility function.
The procedure for determining risk probability, risk impact and risk exposure for one
phase in the Process Protocol, using the multi-attribute utility theory, is shown
below.
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7.4.1.1 Risk probability - multi-attribute utility theory
No additional criteria are given for determining risk probability, that is, risk
probability is the goal and the only criterion with respect to which the alternatives are
to be weighted. This is an essential simplification and the following is a single-
criterion analysis. The alternatives are the risks in Phase X.
A qualitative assessment is first made for the occurrence of each identified risk in
Phase X, by assessing its minimum, most likely and maximum probability. Table 7.5
shows one such assessment.
Table 7.5: Probability assessment for each alternative with respect to risk probability
Risk probability Minimum Most likely Maximum
Risk X01 0.20 0.24 0.30
Risk X02 0.10 0.16 0.20
Risk X03 0.46 0.54 0.60
Risk X04 0.60 0.70 0.80
Risk X05 0.24 0.30 0.36
After this the utility function is determined for the criterion of risk probability. First
the minimum and maximum probabilities for all the alternatives are taken and the
utility function values of 0 and 1 are assigned to them. If U(riskprob) is the utility
function, then U(0.10)=0, and U(0.80)=1.
Now the decision-maker is given the option of choosing which probability of risk
occurrence he will accept, rather than drawing lots. Drawing lots or tossing a coin
means that he will accept the minimum risk of 0.1 for heads, and the risk of 0.8 for
tails. Since every decision-maker should be able to manage risks, that is, to rely on
his decisions and not on chance, there is always a value that he is ready to accept.
The expected risk value is 0.5*0.1 + 0.5*0.8 = 0.45. The value of the utility function
is 0.5*1 + 0.5*0 = 0.5. The decision-maker should accept a risk greater than 0.45
rather than rely on chance, that is on the expected value. Let the decision-maker
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accept the risk probability of 0.58 as the smallest value he is ready to accept instead
of drawing lots. Now U(0.58)=0.5. The procedure is continued in such a way that the
decision-maker must accept a risk probability between 0.1 and 0.58 for the value of
the utility function 0.5*0 + 0.5*0.5 = 0.25. The expected risk value is 0.5*0.1 +
0.5*0.58 = 0.34. Let the accepted value be 0.37, as the smallest value that the
decision-maker is ready to accept instead of drawing lots. Now U(0.37)=0.25. The
procedure can end by accepting the risk probability between 0.58 and 0.8 for the
value of the utility function of 0.5*0.5 + 0.5*1.0 = 0.75. The expected risk value is
0.5*0.58 + 0.5*0.8 = 0.69. Let the accepted value be 0.71 as the largest value that the
decision-maker is ready to accept instead of drawing lots. Then U(0.71)=0.75. Table
7.6 shows the value of the utility function obtained in this way for risk probability in
Phase X.
Table 7.6: Utility function value for risk probability
Risk probability U(riskprob)
0.10 0.00
0.37 0.25
0.58 0.50
0.71 0.75
0.80 1.00
The values of the utility function shown in Table 7.6 are fitted by a polynomial
function as follows:
U(riskprob) = 2.917367244*riskprob3
- 2.54623541*riskprob2
+
+ 1.589225759*riskprob - 0.1364856845
Any distribution may be assumed for each identified risk in Phase X, and each risk
may have a different distribution depending on risk type, and on the experience of
the manager who makes decision. If a beta distribution is assumed for each identified
risk in Phase X (Moselhi and Deb, 1993) the probability is mean = (minimum +
4*most likely + maximum)/6. Since there is no more than one criterion, the utility
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function values for are the overall utility function (T) for each alternative. The
overall utility function is normalised for each alternative as shown in Section 7.3 and
this represents the final risk probability that will be used to calculate exposure (Table
7.7).
Table 7.7: Overall and normalised utility function for risk probability
Risk probability
U()=T
normalised
T
Risk X01 0.247 0.141 0.091
Risk X02 0.157 0.061 0.039
Risk X03 0.537 0.434 0.279
Risk X04 0.700 0.729 0.469
Risk X05 0.300 0.190 0.122
Total = 1.000
7.4.1.2 Risk impact - multi-attribute utility theory
Three criteria or attributes are given in determining risk impact: time, cost and
quality. The alternatives are the risks in Phase X.
The weight interrelations among the given criteria are defined first in such a way that
the sum of all the weights equals 1. Let the following weight values be assessed for
the criteria in Phase X:
WTIME = 0.3
WCOST = 0.6
WQUALITY = 0.1
The impact of every identified risk in Phase X on time, cost and quality is then
qualitatively assessed, in such a way that its minimum, most likely and maximum
values are defined (Tables 7.8, 7.9 and 7.10).
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Table 7.8: Impact on time assessment
TIME (days) Minimum Most likely Maximum
Risk X01 5 11 15
Risk X02 12 16 20
Risk X03 5 8 10
Risk X04 42 45 50
Risk X05 22 26 31
Table 7.9: Impact on cost assessment
COST (£) Minimum Most likely Maximum
Risk X01 5000 12000 18000
Risk X02 5000 8000 12000
Risk X03 10000 13000 15000
Risk X04 30000 35000 40000
Risk X05 18000 22000 25000
Table 7.10: Impact on quality assessment
QUALITY (%) Minimum Most likely Maximum
Risk X01 10 15 20
Risk X02 10 14 19
Risk X03 20 26 33
Risk X04 15 23 30
Risk X05 35 45 60
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Now all the elements exist for determining the utility function for each criterion, and
the procedure described in Section 7.4.1.1 is repeated. The procedure results in
values of impact on time, cost and quality for discrete values of the utility functions
(Table 7.11).
Table 7.11: Values of impact on time, cost and quality for discrete values of utility
functions
U(TIME, COST
AND QUALITY)
TIME
(days)
COST
(£)
QUALITY
(%)
0.00 5 5000 10
0.25 21 16000 26
0.50 32 25000 39
0.75 42 33000 50
1.00 50 40000 60
The values of the utility functions shown in Table 7.11 are fitted by polynomial
functions as follows:
U(TIME) = 0.0002175018285*TIME2 + 0.0102269454*TIME - 0.05710946609
U(COST) = 2.417766721E-010*COST2 + 1.766638533E-005*COST - 0.09429739803
U(QUALITY)=0.0001297253121*QUALITY2+0.01092973123*QUALITY-0.1222607449
Tables 7.12, 7.13 and 7.14 show the values of the utility functions for the of each
identified risk.
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Table 7.12: Utility function values for the TIME criterion for the corresponding of
each risk
TIME UTIME()
Risk X01 10.667 0.077
Risk X02 16.000 0.162
Risk X03 7.833 0.036
Risk X04 45.333 0.854
Risk X05 26.167 0.359
Table 7.13: Utility function values for the COST criterion for the corresponding of
each risk
COST UCOST ()
Risk X01 11833 0.149
Risk X02 8167 0.066
Risk X03 12833 0.172
Risk X04 35000 0.820
Risk X05 21833 0.407
Table 7.14: Utility function values for the QUALITY criterion for the corresponding
of each risk
QUALITY UQUALITY()
Risk X01 15.000 0.071
Risk X02 14.167 0.059
Risk X03 26.167 0.253
Risk X04 22.667 0.192
Risk X05 45.833 0.651
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The overall utility function for each identified risk in Phase X is calculated as
follows:
T= WTIME * UTIME + WCOST * UCOST + WQUALITY * UQUALITY
For risk X01 - TX01 = 0.3*0.077 + 0.6*0.149 + 0.1*0.071 = 0.120
For risk X02 - TX02 = 0.3*0.162 + 0.6*0.066 + 0.1*0.059 = 0.094
For risk X03 - TX03 = 0.3*0.036 + 0.6*0.172 + 0.1*0.253 = 0.139
For risk X04 - TX04 = 0.3*0.854 + 0.6*0.820 + 0.1*0.192 = 0.767
For risk X05 - TX05 = 0.3*0.359 + 0.6*0.407 + 0.1*0.651 = 0.417
Table 7.15 shows the normalised values of the overall utility function that represent
the risk impact in Phase X.
Table 7.15: Overall and normalised utility function for risk impact
Risk impact
T
normalised
T
Risk X01 0.120 0.078
Risk X02 0.094 0.061
Risk X03 0.139 0.090
Risk X04 0.767 0.499
Risk X05 0.417 0.271
Total = 1.000
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7.4.1.3 Risk exposure - multi-attribute utility theory
After risk probability and risk impact have been determined for every risk in Phase
X, risk exposure can be calculated as the product of risk probability and risk impact.
Table 7.16 shows this calculation.
Table 7.16: Calculating risk exposure in Phase X
PHASE X PROBABILITY IMPACT RISK EXPOSURE
Risk X01 0.091 x 0.078 = 0.007
Risk X02 0.039 x 0.061 = 0.002
Risk X03 0.279 x 0.090 = 0.025
Risk X04 0.469 x 0.499 = 0.234
Risk X05 0.122 x 0.271 = 0.033
The risk exposure is used to form the risk priority list on the basis of which risk
response will be planned. Table 7.17 shows the priority list in Phase X.
Table 7.17: Priority list in Phase X
PHASE X RISK EXPOSURE
Risk X04 0.234
Risk X05 0.033
Risk X03 0.025
Risk X01 0.007
Risk X02 0.002
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7.4.2 FUZZY ANALYSIS
Often measured or forecast values are used as input data in decision-making. To
obtain a reliable assessment of measurement or forecasting results these values may
be expressed in the form of fuzzy numbers, that is, as intervals that are used in
further analysis. This analysis is called a fuzzy analysis (Dubois and Prade, 1985;
Klir and Yuan, 1995; Cox, 1999). Ross and Donald, 1995; Kangari and Rigs, 1988;
Tah and Carr, 2000; Wong, Norman and Flanagan, 2000, and others, used fuzzy
analysis in risk management.
To avoid assuming distribution functions for the utility function, Wong, Norman and
Flanagan (2000) incorporated fuzzy numbers into the multi-attribute utility theory.
The minimum, most likely and maximum value of each utility function is expressed
in the form of fuzzy numbers, and the overall utility function for each identified risk
is also obtained in the form of a fuzzy number. Their idea served as the starting point
for the qualitative risk analysis technique proposed in this framework.
The risk priority list is calculated in 5 steps.
The first, second and third step are almost the same as in the multi-attribute utility
theory. In the first step one or more criteria are defined with respect to which the
offered alternatives will be weighted. In the second step weight interdependency of
the given criteria is defined. In the third step the utility function is formed for every
criterion, using the so-called certainty equivalent method in which the decision-
maker gives a subjective assessment of the discrete values of the utility function,
after which these values are fitted using an exponential, logarithmic or polynomial
function.
In the fourth step the minimum, most likely and maximum values of the utility
function are calculated for each alternative with respect to all the criteria given, after
which these values are turned into the corresponding fuzzy numbers.
In the fifth step the fuzzy representation of the overall utility function is calculated
for each alternative, and certain arithmetical operations on elements of the fuzzy
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numbers give a discrete representation of the overall utility function according to
which the priority list of alternatives is formed.
The continuation will show how fuzzy analysis is used to determine risk probability,
risk impact and risk exposure for one phase in the Process Protocol.
7.4.2.1 Risk probability - fuzzy analysis
Risk probability is the only criterion with respect to which alternatives are weighted.
This is a case of single-criterion analysis. The alternatives are the risks of Phase X.
A qualitative assessment is first made for the occurrence of each identified risk in
Phase X, by assessing its minimum, most likely and maximum probability. Since this
step is the same as the one shown in Section 7.4.1.1, the assessments in Table 7.5.
may be used.
Then the utility function is determined for the risk probability criterion is in the same
way as in Section 7.4.1.1. Table 7.6 shows the values of the utility function for risk
probability in Phase X obtained in this way.
The values of the utility function shown in Table 7.6 are fitted by a polynomial
function as follows:
U(riskprob) = 2.917367244*riskprob3
- 2.54623541*riskprob2
+
+ 1.589225759*riskprob - 0.1364856845
Then the minimum, most likely and maximum values of the utility function are
calculated for each alternative. Table 7.18 shows the calculation for Phase X.
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Table 7.18: Value of utility function for risk probability
U(riskprob) Minimum Most likely Maximum
Risk X01 0.103 0.139 0.190
Risk X02 0.000 0.065 0.103
Risk X03 0.340 0.439 0.531
Risk X04 0.531 0.729 1.000
Risk X05 0.139 0.190 0.242
The minimum, most likely and maximum utility function value for each identified
risk in Phase X must be turned into the corresponding fuzzy numbers. The same L-R
representation of fuzzy numbers as the one used by Wang, Norman and Flanagan
(2000), will be used. A fuzzy number M is called an L-R fuzzy number if its
membership function is defined by
L[(m - x) / ] x > m, > 0
M(x) = 1 x = m
R[(x - m) / ] x > m, > 0
where L and R are monotonic non-increasing functions, m is the mean value of M
and and are called the left and right spreads, respectively. When the spreads are
zero, M is a crisp number. As the spreads increase, M becomes fuzzier.
Symbolically, the L-R fuzzy number M is represented by tree parameters and is
denoted by M = (m, , )LR.
Table 7.19 shows the fuzzy representation of the minimum, most likely and
maximum utility function values for each identified risk in Phase X, that is, the
corresponding fuzzy numbers.
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Table 7.19: Fuzzy representation of the utility function for risk probability
Fuzzy numbers m
Risk X01 0.144 0.041 0.046
Risk X02 0.056 0.056 0.047
Risk X03 0.436 0.097 0.094
Risk X04 0.753 0.222 0.246
Risk X05 0.190 0.051 0.052
Fuzzy numbers are used to obtain reliable risk probability assessment. The mean
value m represents the measured value, and and represent variability, that is the
unreliability of the assessed value. The smaller they are the greater the confidence in
the assessed value. This is why the mean value m, decreased by the average of the
and spreads, is a good representative of the overall utility function. Table 7.20
shows the calculation of the overall utility function for risk probability, and its
normalised value that will serve to calculate risk exposure.
Table 7.20: Overall normalised utility function for risk probability
Risk probability
T = m-(+)/2
normalised
T
Risk X01 0.100 0.091
Risk X02 0.004 0.004
Risk X03 0.341 0.309
Risk X04 0.519 0.471
Risk X05 0.138 0.125
Total = 1.000
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7.4.2.2 Risk impact - fuzzy analysis
There are three criteria or attributes for determining risk impact: time, cost and
quality. The alternatives are the risks in Phase X.
First the weighting and interdependency of the given criteria are defined in such a
way that the sum of all the weights equals 1. Let the same weight values as in
Section 7.4.1.2 be assessed for Phase X:
WTIME = 0.3
WCOST = 0.6
WQUALITY = 0.1
A qualitative assessment of impact on time, cost and quality is made for each
identified risk in Phase X by defining its minimum, most likely and maximum
values. Since this step is the same as that shown in Section 7.4.1.2, the assessments
in Tables 7.8, 7.9 and 7.10 may be used.
Then the corresponding utility functions are determined for all the criteria in the
same way as in Section 7.4.1.1. Table 7.11 shows the discrete values of the utility
functions thus obtained for risk probabilites in Phase X.
The values of the utility functions shown in Table 7.11 are fitted by polynomial
functions as follows:
U(TIME) = 0.0002175018285*TIME2 + 0.0102269454*TIME - 0.05710946609
U(COST) = 2.417766721E-010*COST2 + 1.766638533E-005*COST - 0.09429739803
U(QUALITY)=0.0001297253121*QUALITY2+0.01092973123*QUALITY-0.1222607449
After that the minimum, most likely and maximum values of the utility functions for
each alternative with respect to all the given criteria are calculated and they are
turned into fuzzy numbers. Tables 7.21, 7.22, 7.23, 7.24, 7.25 and 7.26 show the
calculation for Phase X.
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Table 7.21: Values of the utility function for TIME
U(TIME) Minimum Most likely Maximum
Risk X01 0.000 0.082 0.145
Risk X02 0.097 0.162 0.234
Risk X03 0.000 0.039 0.067
Risk X04 0.756 0.844 1.000
Risk X05 0.273 0.356 0.469
Table 7.22: Fuzzy representation of the utility function for TIME
TIME fuzzy m
Risk X01 0.076 0.076 0.070
Risk X02 0.165 0.068 0.070
Risk X03 0.036 0.036 0.032
Risk X04 0.866 0.110 0.132
Risk X05 0.366 0.093 0.103
Table 7.23: Values of the utility function for COST
U(COST) Minimum Most likely Maximum
Risk X01 0.000 0.153 0.302
Risk X02 0.000 0.063 0.153
Risk X03 0.107 0.176 0.225
Risk X04 0.653 0.820 1.000
Risk X05 0.302 0.411 0.498
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Table 7.24: Fuzzy representation of the utility function for COST
COST fuzzy m
Risk X01 0.152 0.151 0.150
Risk X02 0.072 0.072 0.081
Risk X03 0.169 0.063 0.056
Risk X04 0.824 0.171 0.175
Risk X05 0.404 0.102 0.095
Table 7.25: Values of the utility function for QUALITY
U(QUALITY) Minimum Most likely Maximum
Risk X01 0.000 0.071 0.148
Risk X02 0.000 0.056 0.132
Risk X03 0.148 0.250 0.380
Risk X04 0.071 0.198 0.322
Risk X05 0.419 0.632 1.000
Table 7.26: Fuzzy representation of the utility function for QUALITY
QUALITY fuzzy m
Risk X01 0.073 0.073 0.075
Risk X02 0.063 0.063 0.069
Risk X03 0.259 0.111 0.121
Risk X04 0.197 0.126 0.125
Risk X05 0.684 0.265 0.317
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The overall utility function for each identified risk in Phase X is calculated as
follows:
T= WTIME * UTIME + WCOST * UCOST + WQUALITY * UQUALITY
for m
For risk X01 - TX01 = 0.3*0.076 + 0.6*0.152 + 0.1*0.073 = 0.121
For risk X02 - TX02 = 0.3*0.165 + 0.6*0.072 + 0.1*0.063 = 0.099
For risk X03 - TX03 = 0.3*0.036 + 0.6*0.169 + 0.1*0.259 = 0.138
For risk X04 - TX04 = 0.3*0.866 + 0.6*0.824 + 0.1*0.197 = 0.774
For risk X05 - TX05 = 0.3*0.366 + 0.6*0.404 + 0.1*0.684 = 0.421
for
For risk X01 - TX01 = 0.3*0.076 + 0.6*0.151 + 0.1*0.073 = 0.121
For risk X02 - TX02 = 0.3*0.068 + 0.6*0.072 + 0.1*0.063 = 0.070
For risk X03 - TX03 = 0.3*0.036 + 0.6*0.063 + 0.1*0.111 = 0.060
For risk X04 - TX04 = 0.3*0.110 + 0.6*0.171 + 0.1*0.126 = 0.148
For risk X05 - TX05 = 0.3*0.093 + 0.6*0.102 + 0.1*0.265 = 0.116
for
For risk X01 - TX01 = 0.3*0.070 + 0.6*0.150 + 0.1*0.075 = 0.119
For risk X02 - TX02 = 0.3*0.070 + 0.6*0.081 + 0.1*0.069 = 0.077
For risk X03 - TX03 = 0.3*0.032 + 0.6*0.056 + 0.1*0.121 = 0.055
For risk X04 - TX04 = 0.3*0.132 + 0.6*0.175 + 0.1*0.125 = 0.157
For risk X05 - TX05 = 0.3*0.103 + 0.6*0.095 + 0.1*0.317 = 0.120
for T = m - ( + ) / 2
For risk X01 -average TX01 = 0.121 - (0.121 + 0.119)/2 = 0.001
For risk X02 -average TX02 = 0.099 - (0.070 + 0.077)/2 = 0.026
For risk X03 -average TX03 = 0.138 - (0.060 + 0.055)/2 = 0.081
For risk X04 -average TX04 = 0.774 - (0.148 + 0.157)/2 = 0.622
For risk X05 -average TX05 = 0.421 - (0.116 + 0.120)/2 = 0.303
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Table 7.27 shows the normalised values of the overall utility function that represent
the risk impact in Phase X.
Table 7.27: Overall and normalised utility function for risk impact
Risk impact
T
normalised
T
Risk X01 0.001 0.001
Risk X02 0.026 0.025
Risk X03 0.081 0.078
Risk X04 0.622 0.602
Risk X05 0.303 0.293
Total = 1.000
7.4.2.3 Risk exposure - fuzzy analysis
After risk probability and risk impact have been determined for each risk in Phase X,
risk exposure is calculated as a product of risk probability and risk impact. Table
7.28 shows the calculation.
Table 7.28: Calculating risk exposure in Phase X
PHASE X PROBABILITY IMPACT RISK EXPOSURE
Risk X01 0.091 x 0.001 = 0.000
Risk X02 0.004 x 0.025 = 0.000
Risk X03 0.309 x 0.078 = 0.024
Risk X04 0.471 x 0.602 = 0.284
Risk X05 0.125 x 0.293 = 0.037
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The risk exposure obtained is used to form a risk priority list, which will serve to
plan risk response. Table 7.29 shows the priority list in Phase X.
Table 7.29: Priority list in Phase X - fuzzy analysis
PHASE X RISK EXPOSURE
Risk X04 0.284
Risk X05 0.037
Risk X03 0.024
Risk X01 0.000
Risk X02 0.000
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7.4.3 ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP)
Thomas L. Saaty (1980) developed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as an aid
to managers in making decisions. Subjective assessments and objective facts are
incorporated into a logical hierarchical AHP framework to provide decision-makers
with an intuitive and common sense approach in quantifying the importance of each
decision element through a comparison process. This process enables decision-
makers to reduce a complex problem to a hierarchical form with several levels
(Saaty and Forman, 1993).
Mustafa and Al-Bahar (1991), Dey, Tabucanon and Ongunlana (1994), Dey (1999)
and Dey (2001) used the AHP in qualitative risk analysis.
Generally, the hierarchy has at least three levels: goal, criteria and alternatives
(Saaty, 1995). Criteria may have sub-criteria (Figure 7.7.).
Figure 7.7: Hierarchical model structure
The process starts by determining the relative importance of particular alternatives
with respect to the criteria and the sub-criteria (Saaty and Kearns, 1991). Then the
criteria are compared with respect to the goal. Finally the results of these two
analyses are synthesised by calculating the relative importance of the alternatives
with respect to achieving the goal. The process of comparison is represented by
Criteria
Sub-criteria
Alternatives
Goal
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forming a comparative matrix (Saaty, 1992). If the analyst has at his disposal n
alternatives, or criteria that form the comparative matrix, then he must make n(n-1)/2
evaluations (Saaty and Vargas, 1991).
The eigenvector of each comparative matrix is the priority list, while the eigenvalue
gives the measure of consistency in making the assessment or comparison. The
synthesised eigenvector is the global sequence of the alternatives with respect to
achieving the goal. A global consistency coefficient smaller than 0.10 is acceptable,
otherwise the assessments must be revised.
The eigenvector and the maximum eignevalue of the comparative matrix are
determined by solving the general problem of eignevalues:
AW = maxW
where
A – comparative matrix,
W = (W1, W2, W3, W4, W5)T – eigenvector, and
max – maximum eigenvalue.
AHP can best be used for multi-criteria problems in which it is not possible to
precisely quantify how alternatives impact decision-making.
The risk priority list is calculated in 5 steps.
The first step in applying this model is dividing the problem into one or more criteria
which will be used to weight the alternatives offered. This means that it is necessary
to define the hierarchical levels: goal, criteria, sub-criteria and alternatives.
The second step is forming comparative matrices for all hierarchical levels.
The third step is calculating regional eigenvectors and eigenvalues for the
comparative matrices for all hierarchical levels. On the level of criteria the regional
eigenvector defines the priority, with respect to weight, of the individual criteria for
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achieving the goal, while on the level of alternatives the regional eigenvector defines
the priority of the alternatives with respect to the given criterion.
The fourth step is calculating the consistency coefficient for each comparative matrix
on all levels, and this is determined from the eigenvalue of the comparative matrix. If
the consistency coefficient exceeds 0.10 then inconsistent assessments were made in
forming the comparative matrices on particular hierarchical levels and such matrices
must be formed anew. If the consistency coefficient is smaller than 0.10 then it is
possible to move on to the next step.
The fifth step is synthesising the calculation results from all levels and weighting
each alternative in relation to achieving the goal. The global eigenvector and the
global consistency index are calculated. If the global consistency index exceeds 0.10
then inconsistent judgments still exist and the comparative matrices must be
redefined. If the consistency index is smaller than 0.10 then the process of defining
the weight and interdependency of the alternatives with respect to the given goal has
been concluded.
7.4.3.1 Risk probability - AHP
When there is no database for a particular risk and it is impossible to assess the
probability of its occurrence quantitatively, a qualitative assessment is made by
assessing how much more or less probable the occurrence of this risk is with respect
to all the other risks in the phase. Successive qualitative assessments using AHP
leads to a relative distribution of risk probability in a particular phase. This makes the
sum of the probabilities of all the risks in a phase equal to 1.
For Phase X, whose priority list is being determined, the procedure begins by
forming the hierarchical structure. The goal is the risk probability. There are no
criteria and sub-criteria. The risks of Phase X are the alternatives. Fig. 7.8 shows the
hierarchical structure.
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Figure 7.8: Hierarchical structure for risk probability in Phase X
After the hierarchical structure has been defined, the comparative matrix is formed in
which the relative interdependency is defined of the probabilities for the appearance
of all identified risks in Phase X.
Table 7.30 shows a comparative matrix for Phase X. A total of 10 assessments were
made for the relative probability of all the identified risks in Phase X. For example,
risk X01 was assessed to be 3 times more probable than risk X02 and 4 times less
probable than risk X03.
Table 7.30: Comparative matrix for risk probability in Phase X
Risk probability Risk X01 Risk X02 Risk X03 Risk X04 Risk X05
Risk X01 1/1 3/1 1/4 1/5 1/3
Risk X02 1/3 1/1 1/6 1/7 1/5
Risk X03 4/1 6/1 1/1 1/2 4/1
Risk X04 5/1 7/1 2/1 1/1 5/1
Risk X05 3/1 5/1 1/4 1/5 1/1
Solving the general problem of eigenvalues gives the eigenvector that represents the
corresponding risk probability. Table 7.31 shows the eigenvector, maximum
eigenvalue max , row n of the matrix, consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR.
Goal
Alternatives
Risk probability
Risk X01 Risk X02
Risk X03 Risk X04 Risk X05
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Table 7.31: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max , row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for risk probability in Phase X
Risk probability W max n CI CR
Risk X01 0.076
Risk X02 0.039
Risk X03 0.302 5.312 5 0.078 0.070
Risk X04 0.448
Risk X05 0.136
= 1.000
Since CR < 0.1 it may be assumed that consistent judgments were made.
7.4.3.2 Risk impact - AHP
When risk impact cannot be quantitatively calculated it is necessary to qualitatively
weight the impacts of all the risks in a phase with respect to time, costs and quality.
For Phase X, whose priority list is being determined here, a hierarchical structure is
formed on two levels. The goal is the risk impact. The criteria are time, cost and
quality. There are no sub-criteria. The alternatives are the risks in Phase X. Fig. 7.9
shows the hierarchical structure.
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Figure 7.9: Hierarchical structure for risk impact in Phase X
Priorities with respect to time, cost and quality differ among various construction
projects depending on many factors. Although it is important to keep the planned
costs under control in every project, often the deadline for finishing a project is much
more important than increased costs, and when life-threatening situations appear in
the execution of a facility, then quality control becomes much more important than
both deadlines and costs. This is why the first step for every project phase must be to
assess the interdependency of lengthening time, increasing costs and decreasing
quality.
Table 7.32 gives an example of a comparative matrix showing the interdependency
of time, cost and quality for Phase X. A total of 3 assessments were made. In Phase
X time was assessed to be 3 times less important than costs and twice more important
than quality, while costs are 6 times more important than quality.
Goal
Criteria
Alternatives
Risk impact
TIME COST QUALITY
Risk X01
Risk X02
Risk X03
Risk X04
Risk X05
Risk X01
Risk X02
Risk X03
Risk X04
Risk X05
Risk X01
Risk X02
Risk X03
Risk X04
Risk X05
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Table 7.32: Comparative time, cost and quality matrix in Phase X
Risk impact TIME COST QUALITY
TIME 1/1 1/3 2/1
COST 3/1 1/1 6/1
QUALITY 1/2 1/6 1/1
Solving the general problem of eigenvalues gives the eigenvector that represents the
time, cost and quality interdependency in Phase X. Table 7.33 shows the eigenvector,
maximum eigenvalue max , row n of the matrix, consistency index CI and
consistency ratio CR.
Table 7.33: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max , row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for time, cost and quality
interdependency in Phase X
Risk impact W max n CI CR
TIME 0.222
COST 0.667 3.00 3 0.00 0.00
QUALITY 0.111
= 1.000
The consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR equal zero because completely
consistent judgments were made. In this case the eigenvalue is equal to the row of
the comparative matrix.
The next step is weighting the impact of risks in Phase X on time, cost and quality.
First the impact of identified risks in a particular phase on time is observed. In some
cases it is possible to calculate the impact precisely, in others a qualitative
assessment is necessary. Each risk is viewed with respect to its greater or smaller
assessed impact on time in comparison with that of all the other risks in the phase.
AHP gives weighting and interdependency of all the risks in a phase with respect to
time.
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Table 7.34 shows the comparative matrix for Phase X. A total of 10 assessments
were made of the interdependency of risk impact on time in Phase X. For example, it
was estimated that risk X04 impacts time 3 times more than risk X03, and 6 times
less than risk X04.
Table 7.34: Comparative matrix for risk impact on time for Phase X
TIME Risk X01 Risk X02 Risk X03 Risk X04 Risk X05
Risk X01 1/1 1/2 3/1 1/6 1/4
Risk X02 2/1 1/1 4/1 1/5 1/3
Risk X03 1/3 1/4 1/1 1/8 1/5
Risk X04 6/1 5/1 8/1 1/1 3/1
Risk X05 4/1 3/1 5/1 1/3 1/1
Solving the general problem of eigenvalues gives the eigenvector that represents the
impact of each risk on time. Table 7.35 shows the eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue
max , row n of the matrix, consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR.
Table 7.35: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max , row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for risk impact on time in Phase X
TIME W max n CI CR
Risk X01 0.078
Risk X02 0.120
Risk X03 0.041 5.180 5 0.048 0.040
Risk X04 0.511
Risk X05 0.250
= 1.000
Since CR < 0.1 it may be considered that consistent judments were made.
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The process continues by weighting the impact of the risks in Phase X on costs. AHP
gives weighting and interdependency of all the risks in the phase with respect to
costs.
Table 7.36 is an example of a comparative matrix for Phase X. A total of 10
assessments were made about the relative interdependency of risk impact on cost in
Phase X. For example, Risk X01 was assessed to have a twice greater impact on cost
than risk X02 and the same impact on cost as risk X03.
Table 7.36: Comparative matrix for risk impact on cost in Phase X
COST Risk X01 Risk X02 Risk X03 Risk X04 Risk X05
Risk X01 1/1 2/1 1/1 1/4 1/2
Risk X02 1/2 1/1 1/2 1/4 1/4
Risk X03 1/1 2/1 1/1 1/3 1/2
Risk X04 4/1 4/1 3/1 1/1 2/1
Risk X05 2/1 4/1 2/1 1/2 1/1
Solving the general problem of eigenvalues gives a eigenvector that represents the
impact of each risk on cost. Table 7.37 shows the eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue
max , the row n of the matrix, consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR.
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Table 7.37: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max , the row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for risk impact on cost in Phase X
COST W max n CI CR
Risk X01 0.126
Risk X02 0.073
Risk X03 0.132 5.045 5 0.011 0.010
Risk X04 0.418
Risk X05 0.251
= 1.000
Since CR < 0.1 it may be considered that consistent judgments were made.
The procedure ends in the weighting the risk impact on quality in Phase X. AHP
gives weighting and interdependency of all the risks in one phase with respect to
quality.
Table 7.38 is an example of a comparative matrix for Phase X. A total of 10
assessments were made for the interdependency of risk impact on quality in Phase X.
For example, Risk X01 was assessed to have the same impact on quality as Risk
X02, and a 4 times smaller impact than Risk X05.
Table 7.38: Comparative matrix for risk impact on quality for Phase X
QUALITY Risk X01 Risk X02 Risk X03 Risk X04 Risk X05
Risk X01 1/1 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4
Risk X02 1/1 1/1 1/5 1/4 1/6
Risk X03 2/1 5/1 1/1 2/1 1/2
Risk X04 3/1 4/1 1/2 1/1 1/2
Risk X05 4/1 6/1 2/1 2/1 1/1
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Solving the general problem of eigenvalues gives an eigenvector that represents the
impact of each risk on quality. Table 7.39 shows the eigenvector, maximum
eigenvalue max, row n of the matrix, consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR.
Table 7.39: Eigenvector, maximum eigenvalue max, row n of the matrix,
consistency index CI and consistency ratio CR for risk impact on quality in Phase X
QUALITY W max n CI CR
Risk X01 0.086
Risk X02 0.062
Risk X03 0.259 5.136 5 0.034 0.030
Risk X04 0.200
Risk X05 0.393
= 1.000
Since CR < 0.1 it may be assumed that consistent judgments were made.
After all these judgments have been made the calculation results on all levels are
synthesised. The global eigenvector and global consistency coefficient are calculated.
The global eigenvector is the risk impact of Phase X for each identified risk, and the
global consistency index is the total evaluation of assessment consistency on all
levels.
As in the case of the quantitative approach, the global eigenvector is calculated by
the simple technique of weighting with averaging. The eigenvectors of Level 1
multiplied by the eigenvectors of Level 2, and added up for each criterion, give the
global eigenvector. Table 7.40 shows this calculation.
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Table 7.40: Calculating impact in Phase X
TIME COST QUALITY Risk impact
Risk X01 0.222 x 0.078 + 0.667 x 0.126 + 0.111 x 0.086 = 0.111
Risk X02 0.222 x 0.120 + 0.667 x 0.073 + 0.111 x 0.062 = 0.082
Risk X03 0.222 x 0.041 + 0.667 x 0.132 + 0.111 x 0.259 = 0.126
Risk X04 0.222 x 0.511 + 0.667 x 0.418 + 0.111 x 0.200 = 0.414
Risk X05 0.222 x 0.250 + 0.667 x 0.251 + 0.111 x 0.393 = 0.267
Total = 1.000
The global consistency ratio is calculated by simply averaging the regional
consistency ratios on Levels 1 and 2. For Phase X:
CR = (0.00 + 0.04 + 0.01 + 0.03) / 4 = 0.02
As the global consistency ratio CR=0.02 < 0.10 it is considered that assessment was
consistent.
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7.4.3.3 Risk exposure
After risk probability and risk impact have been determined for each risk in Phase X,
risk exposure can be calculated as the product of risk probability and risk impact.
Table 7.41 shows this calculation.
Table 7.41: Calculating risk exposure in Phase X
PHASE X PROBABILITY IMPACT RISK EXPOSURE
Risk X01 0.076 x 0.111 = 0.008
Risk X02 0.039 x 0.082 = 0.003
Risk X03 0.302 x 0.126 = 0.038
Risk X04 0.448 x 0.414 = 0.185
Risk X05 0.136 x 0.267 = 0.036
The priority risk list is formed on the basis of risk exposure, and will be used in
planning risk response. Table 7.42 shows the priority list in Phase X.
Table 7.42: Priority list in Phase X
PHASE X RISK EXPOSURE
Risk X04 0.185
Risk X03 0.038
Risk X05 0.036
Risk X01 0.008
Risk X02 0.003
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7.4.4 CHOOSING A QUALITATIVE APPROACH TECHNIQUE
All the three techniques described can be used for qualitative risk analysis in the
proposed framework. They can all be programmed and can be included in the
corresponding software support for decision-making. The presentation of all the
methods for Phase X showed that their use is not complicated or time consuming.
The multi-attribute utility theory is the oldest and certainly the most widespread
decision-making support technique. For the decision-maker to use it in the proposed
framework, he must have certain knowledge of and experience in statistics and
probability theory because the assessed data must be replaced by the corresponding
probability distribution function. In applying the method in risk analysis a certain
amount of experience is necessary to assess which distribution to choose and how
many of its statistical parameters to use in analysis. In the example shown for Phase
X one parameter (mean) was used. Since the other statistical moments (variance,
skewness, etc.) show a measure of uncertainty or reliability of the assessed values
used in analysis, their use would quite certainly enhance confidence in the
impartiality of the technique itself. However, a greater number of statistical
parameters in a chosen distribution results in a proportionately greater degree of
derivability of the utility functions for each criterion. The higher the degree of
derivability, the greater the need of discrete utility-function values for its better
approximation, and these are reached in a series of assessments made by the
decision-maker using the so-called certainty equivalent method. Considering that this
is a qualitative technique and that the input data are assessed values, it is rather
questionable to introduce a larger number of statistical parameters that in their turn
result in the need for making additional assessments. Thus the use of this technique
in the proposed framework demands a degree of experience.
The introduction of fuzzy numbers and fuzzy analysis in calculating the overall
utility function is an extension, or better a modification, of the multi-attribute utility
theory. It is used to avoid assuming the type of the probability distribution function
for input data, which are in any case an assessment of the values of the criteria or
alternatives. In this method the assessed values are replaced by their fuzzy
representation which is completely determined and is increasingly being used to
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obtain reliable measurement or forecasting results. It is also used to avoid assessing
the number of statistical parameters to be used in analysis, and thus also the need for
the utility functions to have a higher degree of derivability. Although the final result,
the risk priority list, will be rather similar because the technique is basically the
same, this kind of approach is simpler, more understandable and faster for the
decision-maker. It does not require any additional requirements and is a better
solution than the multi-attribute utility theory.
Whereas risk probability, that is risk impact on time, cost and quality are determined
independently of one another in the multi-attribute utility theory and in fuzzy
analysis, by calculating the values of the overall utility function, in AHP the risk
priority list is calculated through their comparison. When there is not enough data to
quantify particular values a qualitative approach is used. It is therefore more natural
and intuitive for the decision-maker to compare those values with one another than to
try to determining their edge values, or at least their minimum, most likely and
maximum values. For example, available information and experience often make it
easier to assess that an event will do twice more damage than another event, than to
try to quantify the extent of the actual damage caused by either or both of them. It
has already been said that the risk exposure of one risk is of no usable value and
gains significance only when compared with the risk exposure of one or several other
risks. Since the goal parameter in the proposed framework is risk exposure, used to
determine risk acceptability and risk response, comparing the elements that make up
the risk exposure of all the identified risks in a phase imposes itself as the most
natural technique. In AHP no knowledge is necessary of statistics, probability
distribution functions or fuzzy numbers and their meaning. It is only necessary to
consistently compare alternatives with respect to criteria and criteria with respect to
the goal.
The most important reason to give AHP priority over the other two techniques is the
fact that it is the only method that enables, i.e. allows, what is known as rank
reversal. One of the axioms of the utility theory says that adding a new alternative to
the decision problem can never change the order of the old alternatives, i.e. that a
non-optimal alternative cannot become optimal by adding a new non-optimal
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alternative to the decision problem (Luce and Raiffa, 1957). If, for example, the
value of the overall utility function for the new alternative is smaller than the value
of the overall utility function for all the other alternatives, then the new alternative
will take the last place on the list and will have no effect on the order of the
alternatives above it. The same is true in fuzzy analysis because it uses the same
technique for determining the priority list. This situation is logical, expected and
desirable in most decision problems. However, there are certain situations, such as
multi-criteria decision problems, in which the above axiom essentially restricts all
utility theories, i.e. does not allow the decision-making technique to give the
expected results. Luce and Raiffa (1957) showed one such example that restricts the
usability of utility techniques. At a restaurant of unknown quality, a man who loves
and can afford steak, when offered less expensive broiled salmon or more expensive
steak, orders salmon rather than risking paying double the price of salmon for a steak
of questionable quality. He is then quickly told, with an apology, that the restaurant
also has fried snails and frog legs at a price comparable to that of steak. The man
shudders quietly at the thought of eating them, but then changes his order from
salmon to steak. He reasons that this is a restaurant of high culinary discrimination
and would serve a good steak. Thus, the presence of a non-optimal alternative (snails
and frog legs, which he hates) can affect the rank of an old alternative. Although the
reasons why a restaurant guests chooses a particular kind of food in real life are
completely understandable, by applying the utility technique steak could never
become more desirable than broiled salmon just because of the appearance of snails
and frog legs, as the most undesirable of all the dishes. However, by using AHP
steak can jump broiled salmon on the priority list. Let the criteria for choosing food
be benefits and risks. The appearance of a new dish will not affect the hierarchy with
respect to benefits because the guest hates snails and frog legs. However, the
appearance of the new dish will essentially affect the hierarchy with respect to risks
because its appearance considerably decreased the risk, in the guest’s eyes, that the
restaurant does not serve good steak. Salmon will now lose the advantage it had over
steak with respect to risk. By combining benefit and risk, steak will pass salmon on
the list and snails and frog legs will remain in bottom place, thus leading to rank
reversal.
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The restaurant situation described above is very similar to what happens when the
risk priority list is formed, where rank reversal is expected. In the proposed
framework risk impact is determined and risks are given priority with respect to time,
cost and quality. The cyclical risk management process is carried out in each phase
of the construction process. After risk probability and risk impact have been
determined for every key risk identified, and thus also risk exposure, a priority risk
list is formed and risk response strategy is defined, depending on risk acceptability. If
new risks appear as the result of risk response, a new cycle of risk identification,
analysis and response begins. When risk impact is compared with that of the risks
identified earlier, the new risk may have a very great impact on time, a negligible or
equal impact on cost and quality. This great impact on time of the new risk will
decrease the relative value of the impacts on time of risks that previously dominated
in this sense, so risks that dominated with respect to cost or quality may now climb
higher on the risk list. In other words, when a new risk appeared that may essentially
affect construction time then the longer construction time in earlier risks got less
impact than the costs that this prolongation might produce, so rank reversal is natural
and expected.
Rank reversal cannot occur in the multi-attribute utility theory or fuzzy analysis. The
capacity of AHP to solve cases of this kind will be shown below.
Let a risk priority list of only two risks be formed in a phase. Let time, cost and
quality be equally important for the project. Table 7.43 shows the comparative
matrix and corresponding eigenvector for time, cost and quality.
Table 7.43: Comparative time, cost and quality matrix in Phase X.
Risk impact TIME COST QUALITY W
TIME 1/1 1/1 1/1 0.333
COST 1/1 1/1 1/1 0.333
QUALITY 1/1 1/1 1/1 0.333
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Now the impact of the two risks on time, cost and quality is weighted. Table 7.44
shows the comparative matrices and the corresponding eigenvector for impact on
time, cost and quality for both risks. The comparative matrix shows that Risk X01
predominates over Risk X02 with respect to time, is inferior with respect to cost, and
they both have the same impact on quality. All the judgments were made completely
consistently so the consistency ratios equal zero on all levels of decision-making.
Table 7.44: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for risk impact on time, cost and
quality for two risks
TIME Risk X01 Risk X02 W
Risk X01 1/1 3/1 0.750
Risk X02 1/3 1/1 0.250
COST Risk X01 Risk X02 W
Risk X01 1/1 1/2 0.333
Risk X02 2/1 1/1 0.667
QUALITY Risk X01 Risk X02 W
Risk X01 1/1 1/1 0.500
Risk X02 1/1 1/1 0.500
Synthesising the calculation results on all levels of decision-making gives the global
eigenvector that represents the risk priority list. Table 7.45 shows the calculation
result. It can be seen that Risk X01 has a greater impact than Risk X02.
Table 7.45: Risk impact on time, cost and quality for two risks
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Risk impact
Risk X01 0.528
Risk X02 0.472
Let a new Risk X03 now appear, which will predominate with respect to time, be
inferior with respect to cost and equal to the other risks with respect to quality. Table
7.46 shows the comparative matrix and corresponding eigenvector for time, cost and
quality.
Table 7.46: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for risk impact on time, cost and
quality for three risks
TIME Risk X01 Risk X02 Risk X03 W
Risk X01 1/1 3/1 1/2 0.300
Risk X02 1/3 1/1 1/6 0.100
Risk X03 2/1 6/1 1/1 0.600
COST Risk X01 Risk X02 Risk X03 W
Risk X01 1/1 1/2 4/1 0.308
Risk X02 2/1 1/1 8/1 0.615
Risk X03 1/4 1/8 1/1 0.077
QUALITY Risk X01 Risk X02 Risk X03 W
Risk X01 1/1 1/1 1/1 0.333
Risk X02 1/1 1/1 1/1 0.333
Risk X03 1/1 1/1 1/1 0.333
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Synthesising the calculation results on all levels of decision-making gives the global
eigenvector that represents the risk priority list. Table 7.47 shows the calculation
results. It can be seen that now Risk X01 has a smaller impact than Risk X02, and
that Risk X03 is the lowest-ranking; its predominance with respect to time of has
decreased the importance of the predominance of Risk X02 with respect to time and
increased the importance of the predominance of Risk X02 with respect to cost.
Table 7.47: Risk impact on time, cost and quality for three risks
Risk impact
Risk X01 0.359
Risk X02 0.395
Risk X03 0.245
From all the above it may be concluded that AHP is the most suitable technique for
qualitative risk analysis in the proposed framework.
7.5 RISK PRIORITY LIST - MIXED APPROACH
The most usual case in real life is a combination of the quantitative and qualitative
approach. For some risks in Phase X there will be a database for assessing their
probability, that is, their impact on time, cost or quality. For others this will not be
available. If risk probability can be calculated for all the risks in Phase X then the
normalisation method should be used, i.e. the quantitative approach. If it cannot be
calculated for at least one risk, then the risks for which calculation is possible should
be normalised, and the qualitative approach used for the interdependency of the
probabilities of those risks and the one for which calculation is not possible. The
same procedure should be used for risk impact on time, cost or quality.
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7.6 RISK ACCEPTABILITY
An acceptability assessment is made for each identified risk in Phase X, depending
on its risk exposure, and methods are defined for managing it. Godfrey (1996)
proposed a risk classification and the corresponding risk management for each
category:
UNACCEPTABLE - Intolerable, must be eliminated or transferred.
UNDESIRABLE - To be avoided if reasonably practicable, detailed investigation
and cost benefit justification required, top level approval
needed, monitoring essential.
ACCEPTABLE - Can be accepted provided the risk is managed.
NEGLIGIBLE - No further consideration needed.
The link between risk acceptability and risk exposure results from the policy of the
risk management team. It depends on the type and complexity of the facility, and on
the experience gained in constructing similar facilities. Depending on the success of
project realisation, this link may be changed from phase to phase.
In the lack of experience the starting link may be as shown in Table 7.48.
Table 7.48: Risk evaluation depending on risk exposure
RISK ACCEPTABILITY RISK EXPOSURE
UNACCEPTABLE RISK 0.25 – 1.00
UNDESIRABLE RISK 0.11 – 0.25
ACCEPTABLE RISK 0.01 – 0.11
NEGLIGIBLE RISK 0.00 – 0.01
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The values in the table were obtained as follows:
o If risk probability and risk impact are greater than 1/2 then risk acceptability
is greater than 0.25 (0.5*0.5=0.25) and, of course, smaller than 1. This means
that the risk has a high probability and a great impact, which means that this
risk is more probable than all the other risks of the phase put together and that
it has a greater impact than all the other risks of the phase put together. If risk
probability falls below 0.5 by 20% (0.8*0.5 = 0.4) then risk impact must
grow over 0.5 by 25% (1.25*0.5=0.625) for risk acceptability to remain
within this category. The opposite is also true. If the risk satisfies all these
conditions then it is unacceptable and the response to it may be risk
avoidance or risk transfer.
o If risk probability and risk impact are greater than 1/3 and smaller than 1/2
then risk acceptability is between 0.11 and 0.25 (0.333*0.333=0.11). This
means that the risk has a mean value and mean impact, and that this risk has
between one third and one half probability and impact of all the other risks of
the phase put together. Similarly as in the preceding category, if risk
probability changes by, for example, 20% with reference to the values of 1/3
and 1/2, risk impact must change by 25% for the risk to remain in this
category. Of course, the opposite is also true. If the risk satisfies all these
conditions then it is undesirable and the risk response may be risk avoidance,
risk transfer, risk reduction or risk sharing with the necessary risk monitoring.
o If risk probability and risk impact are greater than 1/10 and smaller than 1/3
then risk acceptability is between 0.01 and 0.11 (0.1*0.1=0.01). This means
that the risk has a small probability and small impact, and it has between one
tenth and one third probability and impact of all the other risks in the phase
put together. Similarly as in the preceding categories, if risk probability
changes by, for example, 20% with reference to 1/3 and 1/2, risk impact must
change by 25% for the risk to remain in this category. Of course, the opposite
is true as well. If the risk satisfies these conditions then it is acceptable and
the response to it may be risk retention with the necessary risk monitoring.
o If risk probability and risk impact are smaller than 1/10 then risk acceptability
is between 0.0 and 0.01. This means that the risk has a negligible probability
and negligible impact, and that this risk has less than one tenth probability
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and impact of all the other risks in the phase put together. Similarly as in the
preceding categories, if risk probability changes by, for example, 20% with
reference to the values of 1/3 and 1/2, risk impact must change by 25% for
the risk to remain in this category. Of course, the opposite holds true as well.
If the risk satisfies these conditions then it is negligible and no response to it
is needed.
Table 7.49 shows risk acceptability in Phase X for the quantitative approach.
Table 7.50 shows risk acceptability in Phase X for the qualitative approach.
Table 7.49: Risk acceptability for Phase X - quantitative approach
PHASE X RISK EXPOSURE RISK ACCEPTABILITY RISK RESPONSE
Risk X01 0.014 ACCEPTABLE risk retention and monitoring
Risk X02 0.020 ACCEPTABLE risk retention and monitoring
Risk X03 0.036 ACCEPTABLE risk retention and monitoring
Risk X04 0.139 UNDESIRABLE risk sharing and monitoring
Risk X05 0.042 ACCEPTABLE risk retention and monitoring
Table 7.50: Risk acceptability in Phase X - qualitative approach
PHASE X RISK EXPOSURE RISK ACCEPTABILITY RISK RESPONSE
Risk X01 0.008 NEGLIGIBLE none needed
Risk X02 0.003 NEGLIGIBLE none needed
Risk X03 0.038 ACCEPTABLE risk retention and monitoring
Risk X04 0.185 UNDESIRABLE risk sharing and monitoring
Risk X05 0.036 ACCEPTABLE risk retention and monitoring
This kind of risk analysis is performed for each phase separately. If some activities,
or some causes of risk, are carried from one phase to another, the corresponding risk
is also transferred. Therefore it is necessary, after every phase, to once more single
out all the risks that will be analysed in the next phase.
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7.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This chapter has shown the framework for process-driven risk management in
construction projects based on the Process Protocol. For each identified risk in a
particular phase it is necessary to determine risk probability and risk impact, and
calculate the corresponding risk exposure. By determining risk exposure for all the
identified risks in a phase and finding their interrelationship, a priority list can be
formed. Depending on the position of the risk in the risk priority list, that is on the
relative value of its exposure with reference to the other risks in the phase, resources
will be engaged for the anticipated risk response. The risk priority list can be
determined using a quantitative, qualitative or mixed approach.
The quantitative approach to forming the risk priority list implies that risk probability
and risk impact can be explicitly calculated using one of the known quantitative
methods of risk analysis. To do this the relevant database must be available to serve
for forming the probability distribution, that is to enable the direct calculation of the
impact on time, cost and quality.
The priority list is created using the qualitative approach when there is no database
about earlier projects to use for the probability distribution function and for
determining risk probability. All the necessary indicators for the direct calculation of
the consequences, that is the impact that the risky event would have on time, cost or
quality, are also missing. Three techniques are offered for qualitative risk analysis in
the proposed framework: Multi-attribute Utility Theory, Fuzzy Analysis and
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). All the three are programmable and can be
included in the corresponding software for decision-making support. A detailed
analysis of all the three techniques shows that AHP is the most complete and most
adaptable.
What usually happens in real life is a combination of the quantitative and qualitative
approach.
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For each identified risk in Phase X, depending on its risk exposure, a decision is
made about its acceptability, that is, methods for managing it are defined. The link
between risk acceptability and risk exposure is the result of the risk management
team’s policy. This depends on the type and complexity of the facility, and on
experience gained by constructing similar facilities. Depending on success in
realising the project, this link can change from phase to phase.
The next chapter deals with the IT support for risk management in construction
projects according to the Process Protocol and based on the framework described.
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8 THE PP-RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME
8.1 INTRODUCTION
In the preceding chapter the framework was developed for process-driven risk
management in Process Protocol based construction projects. The verification of the
proposed framework, shown in the following chapter, and its application in future
projects, would be very time consuming without the use of information technology.
This chapter shows the PP-Risk computer programme developed by the author,
which supports all the elements of the framework for process-driven risk
management presented in the preceding chapter. PP-Risk is an independent
information system that satisfies all the elements of a decision support system.
Holsapple and Whinston (1996) define a decision support system as a computer
system that supports the decision-making process by helping the decision-maker to
organise information, identify and access information necessary for making a
decision, analyse and transform this information, chose methods and models suitable
for solving the problem, apply those methods and models, and analyse the modelling
results for the needs of the decision-maker. According to Stoner and Wankel (1986),
a decision support system is an interactive computer system easily accessible for
experts and decision-makers who are not IT specialists, that helps them in the
functions of planning and deciding in business.
PP-Risk improves communication among all the Activity Zones of the Process
Protocol by integrating all the information relevant for project realisation. Since the
realisation of a construction project includes a large number of people with various
levels of qualification, knowledge and interests, there is always a problem of
communication and information exchange among them. Brandon and Betts (1995)
show possibilities and ways of integrating information.
Aouad et al. (1997), Betts, (1992); Brandon (1993); Miyatake and Kangari (1993),
Nam and Tatum (1992), Oliver (1994), Tucker et al. (1994), Wu et al. (2000) gave a
comprehensive presentation of how to apply information technology in the
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construction industry and the benefits of this application. Major projects on creating
an integrated information environment for construction project development of are
ICON (Aouad et al., 1994), OSCON (Aouad et al., 1997), SPACE (Alshawi et al.,
1996), COMMIT (Rezgui, 1996), IDAC-2 (Powel, 1996), COMBINE (Augenbroe,
1993; Dubois, 1995), ATLAS (Atlas, 1992), MOB (OTH, 1994), COMBI
(Ammerman, 1994), RATAS (Bjork, 1989), IRMA (Luiten, 1993).
8.2 PP-RISK AS A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
As an IT support for risk management in Process Protocol based construction
projects the PP-Risk computer programme, as a Decision Support System (DSS),
was developed in the MS Visual Basic 6 developmental environment on a Microsoft
Windows platform. The basic components of PP-Risk are databases, methods,
documents and user interface. Databases, methods and documents are accessed using
the corresponding management systems, and the user accesses the entire system
through a single user interface. Figure 8.1 shows the PP-Risk structure.
Figure 8.1: Structure of decision support system
User
Documents Methods Databases
Database
Management
System
Document
Management
System
Interface
Method
Management
System
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8.2.1 INTERFACE
User interface includes the mechanisms necessary for data input, model application
and data output. It is an extremely important component of the decision support
system because for the user the interface is in fact the system itself. Obviously the
user interface cannot make up for weaknesses in other parts of the system, but a
badly designed interface may put users off even if the other parts of the system are
well made.
The highest quality of user interface should be designed, according to Cook and
Russell (1989), on the following principles:
1. Setting standards for the appearance of the screen.
2. Intuitive system use.
3. Easy-to-manage system (changing to different operations).
4. Possibility of changing interface parameters.
5. Short system response time.
6. All the parts, that is modules of the system must be operational from the
main menu.
7. Use of standard business terms generally known to users.
8. Involving interface users in interface design.
The first five principles are automatically satisfied by using the MS Visual Basic 6
developmental environment for designing DSS. The appearance of the screen,
method of system use, management process, interface parameters and response time
are the same as in all standard Windows applications (Word, Excel, Access,
PowerPoint) to which a large number of potential system users are already
accustomed. The application of MS Visual Basic 6 is thus justified for this kind of
application because it practically precludes the programmer from departing from the
given principles.
The appearance of part of the main menu of PP-Risk, shown in Figure 8.2,
demonstrates how Principle 6 has been satisfied. It can be seen that it is possible,
from the main menu, to update the projects list, user list for a particular project, and
the list of key risks, that is, of the risks that will be analysed in each phase.
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Furthermore, it is possible to determine risk probability and risk impact, which
determine risk exposure. Finally, it is possible to directly determine risk acceptability
provided that all the necessary decisions have been made and stored in the database.
Figure 8.2: Main menu
Figure 8.2 also shows the satisfaction of Principle 7 because the terms used, such as
risk probability, risk impact and risk acceptability, are generally accepted in risk
management (see Chapter 2).
Principle 8 is satisfied by including the potential user in the process of framework
verification, which is shown in the following chapter.
8.2.2 DATABASE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
According to Smith and Amundsen (1998) the relation database is an integrated set
of data saved in various kinds of entries, and is completely independent of the
programme package that uses the database. Entries are interconnected through the
meaning of the relationship among the saved databases.
The Database Management System (DBMS) allows the creation, use and
preservation of interrelated databases. According to Norton and Groh (1998), the
DBMS must provide its users with seven basic functions:
1. Definition – The system must ensure a method for creating and changing data
structure.
2. Integrity – The system should use rules for data input or editing .
3. Storage - DBMS must contain data structurally defined according to its own
rules.
4. Manipulation – System users must be able to add new, edit existing and
delete unnecessary data in databases.
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5. Recall – Users must be enabled to access and view data in the base.
6. Data share –Several users must be able to access data simultaneously.
7. Security – The system must prevent data damage and data access by
unauthorised users.
Databases managed by MS Visual Basic 6 using the set of tools in Data Access
Objects (DAO) consist of tables, which in turn consist of fields. Sets of similar data
called keys interconnect the tables. A key identifies an entry and can link it with
other entries from the same table or entries from another table or other tables.
Structured Query Language (SQL) is used to access and manipulate the database.
This is a programme language that most computer programmes use to access dataset-
oriented databases. It serves to access data from one or more tables in one or more
databases, manipulate data in the tables, add, delete or update entries, and obtain
final information on data in the tables, such as total number of entries, minimum,
maximum and average values. SQL is divided in two parts, that is, it has two types
of commands:
1. Creating or defining the database itself, called Data Definition Language
(DDL).
2. Database access, called Data Manipulation Language (DML).
The database needed for the realisation of the proposed framework was created using
SQL. This database consists of 9 tables: Phases, RiskList, User, TCQ, Criteria,
Probability, ImpactTime, ImpactCost and ImpactQuality. The set of SQL commands
that served to create tables and the corresponding keys is shown in Appendix 3.
Figure 8.3 shows a graphic presentation of database tables with the corresponding
fields and the links among them. Field qualifiers are used to establish links among
the tables. For example, PhaseCode is a qualifier field that serves to link the Phases
and RiskList tables using what is known as a "one to many" link, that is, it links one
entry in the Phases table with all the entries in the RiskList table that have the same
PhaseCode value.
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Figure 8.3: Database structure with its tables, fields and links
8.2.3 METHOD MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
The Method Management System (MMS) allows the use of several methods
necessary to analyse alternatives. As shown in the preceding chapter, three methods
of qualitative risk analysis may be used to successfully determine the risk priority list
within the proposed framework. These methods are the Multi-Attribute Utility
Theory, Fuzzy Analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. All the three methods
can be programmed and can be included in the appropriate decision support software
if it is felt appropriate at a later date. Since AHP was found, in the preceding chapter,
to be the most suitable method of qualitative risk analysis in the framework
proposed, to date it is the only one included in PP-Risk.
The accuracy of the programme code for using the AHP technique was tested on the
example in the preceding chapter. It gave the same results, which was the first
indicator of successful programming. Results obtained by using PP-Risk and manual
calculation were tested on many examples and showed themselves identical. Figures
8.4 to 8.10 show the results of analysis using PP-Risk, which are identical with those
obtained in the preceding chapter.
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Figure 8.4: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for risk probability obtained by PP-
Risk
Figure 8.5: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for time, cost and quality obtained
by PP-Risk
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Figure 8.6: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for impact on TIME obtained by
PP-Risk
Figure 8.7: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for impact on COST obtained by
PP-Risk
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Figure 8.8: Comparative matrix and eigenvector for impact on QUALITY obtained
by PP-Risk
Figure 8.9: Overall risk impact obtained by PP-Risk
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Figure 8.10: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
8.2.4 DOCUMENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
The Document Management System (DMS) implemented in PP-Risk enables the
system to use various kinds of unstructured data. Documents are information usually
tied to a narrow topic and mostly consist of text, graphs, pictures, voice and video
entries. Examples of documents are reports, user letters, internal messages, news
and electronic messages. If documents are to be used in decision-making they must
be efficiently stored and it must be possible to interpret and search them. Online
databases, for various projects, are major data sources available on the Internet. The
combination of e-mail, discussion groups, online databases and other Internet
services allows a lot of information relevant for making a decision to be gathered
quickly, so it is of great practical use to include these activities in the decision
support system.
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8.2.5 BENEFITS OF THE PP-RISK PROGRAMME
The PP-Risk programme has been developed as an IT support for the proposed
framework. PP-Risk incorporates a data base with the proposed risk list and the AHP
techniques for establishing the risk priority list.
The following list illustrates the benefits of using this programme:
1) easier implementation of the proposed framework in the practice
2) improvement in comunication throughout all the Activity Zones
3) help to Project managers in their decision making and improving the consistency
of judgments
4) better presentation as outputs are shown quantitatively and graphically
5) easier anslysis and understanding the results obtained
8.3 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This chapter has shown the PP-Risk computer programme, as a Decision Support
System (DSS) developed for the proposed framework for process-driven risk
management in Process Protocol based construction projects. PP-Risk provides an
improvement in communication among all Activity Zones within the Process
Protocol by integrating, with the help of IT, all the information relevant for project
realisation.
PP-Risk was designed on the MS Windows platform using the MS Visual Basic 6
developmental environment. The DSS follows given principles (Cook and Russell,
1989) and consists of four integrated modules: User Interface, Database Management
System, Method Management System and Document Management System.
Programme code accuracy was tested on the example shown in the preceding
chapter, and gave the same results. Comparison of the time necessary for manual
qualitative risk analysis and PP-Risk analysis showed the great advantage of PP-Risk
and justified the efforts invested in its development.
In the next chapter the proposed framework will be verified using PP-Risk.
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9 APPLICATION AND VERIFICATION OF THE
PROCESS-DRIVEN RISK MANAGEMENT
FRAMEWORK
9.1 INTRODUCTION
The preceding chapter showed the PP-Risk computer programme the author
developed as a decision support system for the proposed framework for process-
driven risk management based on Process Protocol.
This chapter will show the application and verification of the proposed framework
using the PP-Risk computer programme as IT support. Application and verification
are carried out for the following reasons:
1. To test the applicability of and verify the proposed framework on a specific
example.
2. To verify the efficiency and applicability of the PP-Risk computer
programme described in the preceding chapter.
3. To verify the hypotheses in this research.
Application and verification will be tested on a construction project involving a
tunnel as a major infrastructure facility. Dudeck (1987); John (1997); ITA (1988)
performed important research on risk in tunnel construction. Smith (1993) gave a
case study showing risk assessments and analysis performed during preparations to
design, construct and operate the Channel Tunnel Rail Link.
Eighteen experts, who had in various ways significantly participated in the execution
of similar projects in the past and who are expected to significantly participate in
future projects, helped in the application and verification of the proposed framework.
The experts applied the proposed framework using the PP-Risk computer
programme. First they confirmed the identification of the key risks proposed in the
various phases of Process Protocol, then they implemented a quality risk analysis
within a particular phase, and finally they gave the relevant risk response.
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To verify the proposed framework, the experts first used PP-Risk to manage the risks
in particular phases and then filled in a structured questionnaire.
9.2 APPLICATION OF THE PROCESS-DRIVEN RISK
MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
In order to test the Framework it would be possible to create a hypothetical example
or to use a real case study. The framework had been developed by using a
hypothetical example and therefore it was felt important to apply the approach within
the context of a real project. A real example will provide information on applicability
of the framework in practice and give some valuable lessons for the future.
The application of the PDRMF (Process-Driven Risk Management Framework) was
demonstrated on the Sveta tri kralja Tunnel. This tunnel is planned as part of the
Zagreb-Macelj Motorway that will link the capital of the Republic of Croatia with
the Republic of Slovenia (see Fig.9.1). Motorway Zagreb-Macelj (E-59, M-11) is
part of the Pyhrns roadway in Croatia that links North and West Europe with
Southeast Europe and Mediterranean. The total length of Pyhrns route in Croatia is
30 miles.
The tunnel will be more than 5 km long, mostly running through the weakest rock
categories of the hard soil-soft rock type, with high levels of groundwater and many
natural landslides.
The reasons why the tunnel Sveta tri kralja was chosen for testing are, firstly that the
tunnels are a well known subject for risk management as so many unknowns exist at
the start of a project, and secondly, experts who have worked on similar projects in
the past were willing to participate in the application and verification of the
framework. This enabled satisfactory testing with an informed group who could
make useful judgments about the proposals being made.
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Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
156
Figure 9.1: Zagreb-Macelj road map
Road construction is of special importance in the Republic of Croatia because of
tourism, which is one of the main industrial branches, so the Government made it an
investment priority. To secure the efficient execution of infrastructure projects, the
Croatian Government founded several firms to engage solely in the construction and
maintenance of motorways. One such firm, in the name of the Government, is the
investor in this tunnel.
The application of the proposed framework was tested in several steps.
The first step was choice of experts to participate in the testing. A total of 18 experts
took part, who had played an important role in the realisation of similar facilities in
the past. Considering that the execution of such major facilities is very complex,
starting from Demonstrating the Need to Operation and Maintenance, not one of the
experts participated in all the phases that the project goes through. For this reason the
experts were divided in 4 groups of their own choice, in accordance with the stages
of Process Protocol. No expert tested the framework in more than one stage. The
number of experts per stage was as follows:
Stage 1: Pre-Project Stage - 4 experts
Stage 2: Pre-Construction Stage - 6 experts
Stage 3: Construction Stage - 4 experts
Stage 4: Post-Construction Stage - 4 experts
Chapter 9
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In the second step all the experts were given the list of key risks. Since the tunnel is a
future project whose execution has not yet started, all the experts agreed that the
proposed list was appropriate for first analysis and that project-related risks may
appear during project execution.
The third step was to determine risk exposure and form the risk priority list for each
phase through which the tunnel project would pass according to Process Protocol.
Since project realisation had not yet begun, a qualitative approach was chosen for
risk analysis. Qualitative analysis was carried out as follows:
1. Questionnaire-type forms made for each phase separately were distributed to all
the experts, to serve as the first iteration in the process of determining risk
exposure for each identified risk. The forms were adapted to the AHP method and
enabled making a series of judgmentss about interrelationships among the
identified risks with reference to probability, time, cost and quality, and defining
the mutual significance of time, cost and quality in each phase. Figure 9.1 shows
an example of the form for Phase 0. The experts were allowed as much time as
they required to fill in the forms.
2. The comparison results were entered in the database of the PP-Risk computer
programme, and a degree of inconsistency in judgments appeared in a certain
number of cases. The inconsistencies could have been avoided had the interview
method been used, during which the author of PP-Risk would have directly
entered the judgmentss after which they would have been corrected until the
necessary consistency in deciding was reached. This method was not used because
a large number of judgmentss are needed within one phase, which would have led
to exhaustion and loss of concentration among the respondents. For 5 risks
analysed in one phase it is necessary to make 10 judgmentss for risk probability,
10 for impact on time, 10 for impact on cost, 10 for impact on quality and 3 to
determine the mutual significance of time, cost and quality. This is a total of 43
judgmentss for one phase.
3. After the resulted were entered in the database a two-part interview was
performed with each respondent. In the first part the experts used the PP-Risk
computer programme to correct their judgmentss so as to achieve consistency in
deciding. The process was fast and efficient because the experts were now well
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
158
acquainted with the risks, had been given time to think about them more, and
easily achieved consistency in deciding. In the second part of the interview the
experts were requested to provide the appropriate risk response.
4. Finally the author of the research assumed the role of the project manager and
made her own judgmentss and risk responses for all the project phases, taking into
account all the judgmentss made by the experts, as well as the exposures and the
appropriate risk responses obtained (see Appendix 4).
The risk exposure of a particular risk may be directly correlated with the assets
available to manage that risk in a particular phase by calculating the participation of
its risk exposure in the total risk exposure of that phase. The total risk exposure is
obtained by adding up all the exposures in a phase except the exposures of negligible
risks, because these risks are disregarded so no investment is necessary to respond to
them.
For Phase 0, for example, the total risk exposure is 0.044 (risk 001) + 0.022 (risk
002) + 0.015 (risk 004) + 0.058 (risk 005) = 0.239. Risk 003 is negligible so its
exposure is not taken into account. Thus, for example, 0.058/0.239 = 0.508 can be
used to manage Risk 002, that is, 51% of the total assets available for risk
management in this phase, and 0.242/0.239 = 0.242 can be used for Risk 005, that is,
24 % of the assets.
This calculation of the participation of a particular risk in the total assets available
for risk management is made for each analysed risk and is included in the relevant
risk response.
The form and results of the application of the framework in all the phases, are shown
below.
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
159
PHASE ZERO – DEMONSTRATING THE NEED
Possible results of comparison: 1/10. 1/9, 1/8, … , 1/3, 1/2, 1, 2, 3, … , 8, 9, 10
Risk probability 002 003 004 005
001
002
003
004
Risk impact COST QUALITY
TIME
COST
Impact on TIME 002 003 004 005
001
002
003
004
Impact on COST 002 003 004 005
001
002
003
004
Impact on QUALITY 002 003 004 005
001
002
003
004
Risk List
001: Unsatisfactory Market Research
002: Ill-defined Initial Statement of Need
003: Incomplete Stakeholder List
004: No Historical Data Analysis
005: Poor Communications
Figure 9.2: Example of a form for the qualitative approach in Phase 0
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
160
9.2.1 PHASE ZERO – DEMONSTRATING THE NEED
Risk list
001: Unsatisfactory Market Research
002: Ill-defined Initial Statement of Need
003: Incomplete Stakeholder List
004: No Historical Data Analysis
005: Poor Communications
Table 9.1: Results of risk analysis for Phase 0
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
001 0.320 0.137 0.044 Acceptable
002 0.339 0.360 0.122 Undesirable
003 0.038 0.051 0.002 Negligible
004 0.131 0.118 0.015 Acceptable
005 0.173 0.335 0.058 Acceptable
0,044
0,122
0,002
0,015
0,058
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
0,120
0,140
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
001 002 003 004 005
Risk label
Figure 9.3: Risk exposure in Phase 0
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Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
161
9.2.2 PHASE ONE – CONCEPTION OF NEED
Risk list
101: Ill-defined Final Statement of Need
102: Changes in Stakeholder List
103: Poor Assessment of Stakeholder Impact
104: Poor Communications
105: Incomplete Identification of Potential Solution to the Need
Table 9.2: Result of risk analysis for Phase 1
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
101 0.245 0.251 0.061 Acceptable
102 0.044 0.068 0.003 Negligible
103 0.043 0.076 0.003 Negligible
104 0.184 0.189 0.035 Acceptable
105 0.485 0.416 0.202 Undesirable
0,061
0,003 0,003
0,035
0,202
0,000
0,050
0,100
0,150
0,200
0,250
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
101 102 103 104 105
Risk label
Figure 9.4: Risk exposure in Phase 1
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
162
9.2.3 PHASE TWO – OUTLINE FEASIBILITY
Risk list
201: Poor Communications
202: Poor Consideration of Site Investigations
203: Poor Consideration of Environmental Impact
204: Ill-defined Structure of Funding and Financial Options
205: Unrealistic Completion Dates for Each Option
206: Inadequate Cost/Benefit Analysis for Each Option
Table 9.3: Result of risk analysis for Phase 2
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
201 0.144 0.126 0.018 Acceptable
202 0.289 0.251 0.073 Acceptable
203 0.213 0.162 0.034 Acceptable
204 0.073 0.120 0.009 Negligible
205 0.092 0.153 0.014 Acceptable
206 0.189 0.188 0.036 Acceptable
0,018
0,073
0,034
0,0090,014
0,036
0,000
0,010
0,020
0,030
0,040
0,050
0,060
0,070
0,080
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
201 202 203 204 205 206
Risk label
Figure 9.5: Risk exposure in Phase 2
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
163
9.2.4 PHASE THREE – SUBSTANTIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY &
OUTLINE FINANCIAL AUTHORITY
Risk list
301: Poor Communications
302: Unsatisfactory Site Investigations
303: Poor Assessment of Environmental Impact
304: Ill-defined Structure of Funding and Financial Options
305: Inadequate Substantive Cost-Benefit Analysis
Table 9.4: Results of risk analysis for Phase 3
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
301 0.204 0.171 0.035 Acceptable
302 0.384 0.406 0.156 Undesirable
303 0.224 0.259 0.058 Acceptable
304 0.069 0.042 0.003 Negligible
305 0.119 0.122 0.015 Acceptable
0,035
0,156
0,058
0,0030,015
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
0,120
0,140
0,160
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
301 302 303 304 305
Risk label
Figure 9.6: Risk exposure in Phase 3
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
164
9.2.5 PHASE FOUR – OUTLINE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
Risk list
401: Poor Communications
402: Lack of Site Investigations Update
403: Lack of Environmental Impact Assessment Update
404: Inadequate Evaluation of Outline Conceptual Design Alternatives
405: Inaccurate Total Cost of Chosen Outline Conceptual Design Estimate
Table 9.5: Result of risk analysis for Phase 4
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
401 0.141 0.134 0.019 Acceptable
402 0.237 0.172 0.041 Acceptable
403 0.136 0.145 0.020 Acceptable
404 0.412 0.342 0.141 Undesirable
405 0.074 0.207 0.015 Acceptable
0,019
0,041
0,020
0,141
0,015
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
0,120
0,140
0,160
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
401 402 403 404 405
Risk label
Figure 9.7: Risk exposure in Phase 4
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Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
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9.2.6 PHASE FIVE – FULL CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
Risk list
501: Poor Communications
502: Poor Schematic Design for Elements of Chosen Solution
503: Inadequate Maintenance Plan
504: Inadequate Health and safety Plan
505: Inaccurate Total Cost of Chosen Concept Design Solution Estimate
Table 9.6: Results of risk analysis for Phase 5
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
501 0.185 0.143 0.026 Acceptable
502 0.460 0.377 0.173 Undesirable
503 0.144 0.127 0.018 Acceptable
504 0.138 0.122 0.017 Acceptable
505 0.072 0.231 0.017 Acceptable
0,026
0,173
0,018 0,017 0,017
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
0,120
0,140
0,160
0,180
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
501 502 503 504 505
Risk label
Figure 9.8: Risk exposure in Phase 5
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
166
9.2.7 PHASE SIX – COORDINATED DESIGN, PROCUREMENT & FULL
FINANCIAL AUTHORITY
Risk list
601: Poor Communications
602: Poor Detailed Design for Elements of Chosen Solution
603: Inaccurate Total Cost Based on Detailed Design Estimate
604: Poor contractual strategy
605: Unsatisfactory Potential Suppliers Skills and Inability to Fulfil Requirements
Table 9.7: Results of risk analysis for Phase 6
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
601 0.169 0.154 0.026 Acceptable
602 0.258 0.178 0.046 Acceptable
603 0.086 0.132 0.011 Acceptable
604 0.332 0.344 0.114 Undesirable
605 0.154 0.193 0.030 Acceptable
0,026
0,046
0,011
0,114
0,030
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
0,120
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
601 602 603 604 605
Risk label
Figure 9.9: Risk exposure in Phase 6
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
167
9.2.8 PHASE SEVEN – PRODUCTION INFORMATION
Risk list
701: Poor Communications
702: Unsatisfactory Health and Safety Plan
703 Unsatisfactory Maintenance Plan
704: Unsatisfactory Procurement Plan
705: Inability to Finalise Total Cost Based on Production Information
Table 9.8: Result of risk analysis in Phase 7
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
701 0.358 0.302 0.108 Acceptable
702 0.089 0.174 0.015 Acceptable
703 0.191 0.115 0.022 Acceptable
704 0.249 0.216 0.054 Acceptable
705 0.113 0.194 0.022 Acceptable
0,108
0,0150,022
0,054
0,022
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
0,120
Ris
k e
xposure
701 702 703 704 705
Risk label
Figure 9.10: Risk exposure in Phase 7
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
168
9.2.9 PHASE EIGHT – CONSTRUCTION
Risk list
801: Inappropriate Changes to Design Resulting from Construction Phase
802: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Quality of Construction Work
803: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Cost of Construction Work
804: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Progress of Construction
805: Lack of On-Site Resources And Labour Management
Table 9.9: Result of risk analysis for Phase 8
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
801 0.477 0.287 0.137 Undesirable
802 0.194 0.206 0.040 Acceptable
803 0.090 0.205 0.018 Acceptable
804 0.095 0.133 0.013 Acceptable
805 0.145 0.169 0.024 Acceptable
0,137
0,040
0,018 0,013
0,169
0,000
0,020
0,040
0,060
0,080
0,100
0,120
0,140
0,160
0,180
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
801 802 803 804 805
Risk label
Figure 9.11: Risk exposure in Phase 8
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
169
9.2.10 PHASE NINE – OPERATION & MAINTENANCE
Risk list
901: Unsatisfactory Building Performance Measurement
902: Lack of Maintenance Strategies Update
903: Lack of Lifecycle Budgetary Requirements Update
Table 9.10: Results of risk analysis in Phase 9
Risk Probability Impact Exposure Acceptability
901 0.524 0.492 0.258 Unacceptable
902 0.279 0.331 0.092 Acceptable
903 0.197 0.177 0.035 Acceptable
0,258
0,092
0,035
0,000
0,050
0,100
0,150
0,200
0,250
0,300
Ris
k e
xp
osu
re
901 902 903
Risk label
Figure 9.12: Risk exposure in Phase 9
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
170
9.3 VERIFICATION OF PDRMF
The proposed framework was verified using the questionnaire method. The experts
filled in the questionnaire after they had suggested, with the support of PP-Risk, the
appropriate risk response and after they were shown the results of risk management
in all the phases through which the construction project passes according to Process
Protocol. The structural questionnaire has 10 questions (see Appendix 5) that
required the experts to choose one of the answeres offered. The explanation of each
question, the answers provided by the experts and the conclusions in connection to
the answers are shown below.
1. What do you think about the proposed breakdown of the construction project in
10 phases within 4 stages?
The experts were not acquainted with Process Protocol and this question was
asked to obtain their verification of the group of activities necessary during the
realisation of any construction project, as the first step in setting up a
construction process. 12 experts considered the proposed breakdown in 10
phases within 4 stages Appropriate, 4 considered it Generally Appropriate and 2
considered it Very Appropriate. No experts considered the breakdown Less
Appropriate or Not Appropriate. The experts thus verified the breakdown of the
project in the phases proposed in Process Protocol, which is especially important
for the potential application of the framework in future projects.
2
12
4
0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very
appropriate
Appropriate Generally
appropriate
Les
appropriate
Not
appropriate
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
171
2. How generally satisfied are you with the proposed approach whereby risk
management becomes part of the construction process?
Starting from the fact that executing a construction project is a process, the
proposed framework offers process driven risk management as an alternative
approach to risk driven project management. This question was asked to verify
the fourth hypothesis of this research. The experts confirmed that this is a
suitable approach because 11 of them were Satisfied with it, 5 were Reasonably
Satisfied and 2 were Very Satisfied. None of the experts were Dissatisfied or
Very Dissatisfied with the approach. The answers obtained verify the starting
hypothesis.
3. Do you find the proposed framework useful for risk management in construction
projects?
2
11
5
0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very satisfied Satisfied Reasonably
satisfied
Dissatisfied Very
dissatisfied
16
2
0 0 00
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No
. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very useful Useful Somewhat
useful
Neutral Not useful
Chapter 9
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172
This question tested the whether the goal of this research was successfully
realised and the experts’ answers are very encouraging. 16 experts considered
the framework Very Useful and the remaining 2 considered it Useful.
4. What do you think of the proposed key risks in the construction process
regardless of the project’s type and size?
The experts did not know how the key risks had been identified so this question
was asked to verify the identification process for the key risks described in
Chapter 6, that is, to verify the second starting hypothesis in this research. All
the 18 respondents answered that the key risks proposed are Acceptable, and this
is the only answer in which consensus was achieved. In this way the experts
verified the starting hypothesis.
5. To what extent does using the proposed framework improve your understanding
of process in construction?
18
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very
acceptable
Acceptable Reasonably
acceptable
Unacceptable Very
unacceptable
14
4
0 0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No
. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very much Much Not much Some Not at all
Chapter 9
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173
This question was asked to verify the first starting hypothesis in this research. 14
experts considered that using the proposed framework gave them a Very Much
better understanding of the construction process, and 4 experts gave the answer
Much. No experts answered Not Much, Some or Not at All. These answered are
considered verification of the starting hypothesis.
6. Is the proposed framework appropriate for a risk assessment in the stage in
which you managed risks?
This question was also asked to verify the third starting hypothesis in this
research. The framework anticipates a quantitative, qualitative or mixed
approach to risk assessment in each project phase. The experts appraised the
success in implementing these approaches. 15 experts considered them with
Very Appropriate and 3 considered them Appropriate. No experts gave the
answers Generally Appropriate, Less Appropriate or Not Appropriate. This
verified the starting hypothesis.
15
3
0 0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very
appropriate
Appropriate Generally
appropriate
Les
appropriate
Not
appropriate
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
174
7. What do you think about the acceptability of AHP for qualitative risk analysis in
the decision making process?
For some of the experts this had been the first encounter with this technique
whereby the decision making process unfolds through a series of judgments
about the interrelationships of alternatives with reference to given criteria and
given goal. 10 experts gave the answer Acceptable, 5 experts the answer
Reasonably Acceptable and 2 experts Very Acceptable. None of the experts
considered this technique Unacceptable or Very Unacceptable. This has verified
the use of AHP for quantitative risk analysis in the proposed framework.
8. How suited is PP-Risk as a Decision Support System for the proposed
framework?
2
10
5
0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18N
o. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very
acceptable
Acceptable Reasonably
acceptable
Unacceptable Very
unacceptable
16
2
0 0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very suitable Suitable Somewhat
suitable
Neutral Not suitable
Chapter 9
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175
The PP-Risk computer programme, as a decision support system, completely
supports all the elements of the proposed framework. 16 experts considered it
Very Suitable, 2 considered it Suitable and none considered PP-Risk Somewhat
Suitable, Neutral or Not Suitable. The experts’ views encourage the author to
continue improving and increasing the potentials of the programme.
9. How satisfied are you with the PP-Risk user interface?
PP-Risk was developed on the MS Visual Basic 6 developmental environment
on a Microsoft Windows platform. The appearance of the screen, way of using
the system, management procedure, interface parameters and response time are
the same as in all standard Windows applications to which a large number of
potential users of the system are accustomed. Still, 10 experts said they were
Satisfied with the user interface, 8 were Reasonably Satisfied. No experts were
Dissatisfied or Very Dissatisfied with the user interface, nor were any Very
Satisfied. The experts made some remarks that the author will try respect in
accordance with her knowledge of computer programming.
0
10
8
0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No. O
f A
nsw
ers
Very satisfied Satisfied Reasonably
satisfied
Dissatisfied Very
dissatisfied
Chapter 9
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176
10. Assess the benefits of using the proposed framework supported by PP-Risk for
process-driven risk management, from the aspect of time, cost and quality
management?
The experts gave great weight to the fact that the relative values of time, cost
and quality could be changed in each project phase, which made it possible to
manage them at will. Thus 16 experts considered the benefits Significant and 2
experts considered them Major. None of the experts considered the benefits
Medium, Some or Trivial.
0
10
8
0 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No. O
f A
nsw
ers
Significant Major Medium Some Trivial
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
177
9.4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
In this chapter the proposed framework for process driven risk management was
applied to and verified on the example of the future Sveta tri kralja tunnel planned as
part of the future Zagreb-Macelj Motorway that is to connect the capital of the
Republic of Croatia with the Republic of Slovenia. The efficiency and applicability
of the PP-Risk computer programme, described in the preceding chapter, was
verified as a decision support system. The starting hypotheses in this research were
also verified.
Eighteen experts, who had significantly participated in the realisation of similar
projects in the past, took part in the application and verification of the proposed
framework. All the experts were shown the breakdown of the project into 10 phases
within 4 stages. Since none of the experts had previously participated in all the
phases through which the project passes according to Process Protocol, they were
divided in 4 groups. None of the experts tested the framework in more than one
stage. This deficiency was compensated for by showing all the experts, before the
verification process took place, the results of risk management in all the phases
through which the project goes from Demonstrating the Need to Operation and
Maintenance.
The application of the proposed framework is the implementation of the risk
management process described in Chapter 2, which is carried out separately for each
phase of the construction project in accordance with Process Protocol. After the
experts confirmed the identification of the key risks in each phase, they used the PP-
Risk computer programme to determine risk probability and risk impact, and
depending on risk exposure and risk acceptability they proposed the appropriate
strategy of risk response. They repeated the procedure for each phase within a stage.
Applying the framework to risk management in this way, before the project begins to
be executed, has the drawback of loss of the cyclical nature of the risk management
process. During project execution risk response may lead to the appearance of new
risks in the phase under analysis or in one of the later phases. Since new risks should
Chapter 9
Application and verification od the process-driven risk management framework
178
be treated equally as the initial risks, risk management is by its nature a cyclical
process. Furthermore, if the framework is applied to risk management before the
project begins no account is taken of the fact that fundamental changes may occur in
the relative values of time, cost and quality depending on success in the realisation of
preceding phases and on the circumstances and environment in which the project is
being executed. This fundamentally affects risk impact, and thus also risk exposure,
risk acceptability, and finally risk response. Thus process driven risk management,
and the full application of the proposed framework, can only realised if it is applied
to a project during its execution, from Describing the Need to Operation and
Maintenance.
After application the proposed framework was verified using the method of the
structural questionnaire, which the experts filled in after being shown the results of
risk management in all the phases through which the construction project passes
according to Process Protocol.
In their answers the experts verified the breakdown of the project in phases suggested
in Process Protocol, the proposed risk list and process driven risk management. They
marked the PP-Risk computer programme, as the implementation of IT support for
the proposed framework, as Very Suitable. They marked the user interface as
Satisfactory. All the experts found that using the proposed framework helped them
understand the process in construction Much or Very Much better, whereby they
verified the first hypothesis set forth in this work. They also agreed that the proposed
framework is Appropriate or Very Appropriate for a holistic assessment of risk in the
stage in which they managed risks, whereby they verified the second hypothesis in
this work.
The next chapter will show the conclusion and recommendations for future research.
Chapter 10
Conclusions and guidelines for future work
179
10 CONCLUSION AND GUIDELINES FOR FUTURE
WORK
This chapter gives an overview of the main conclusions and contributions of this
research, and suggests guidelines for future work.
10.1 CONCLUSIONS
The author developed and verified a framework for risk management in construction
projects, and the PP-Risk computer programme as IT support for the proposed
framework.
The development of the framework was preceded by systematic analysis of prior
studies of risk management and construction process, which resulted in several
conclusions that were used for developing the framework for risk management in
construction:
o Risk management is by nature a cyclical process. Risks must be identified
before the beginning of project realisation or the realisation of any phase
through which the project passes. The environment in which the project is
realised produces new risks during project realisation. The new risks must be
analysed together with those identified and analysed earlier, in a continuous
attempt to assess the probability and adverse effect of new risks in relation to
existing ones. This creates the need for continuous risk management in all
phases of project realisation.
o The execution of a construction project is a process. The process in
construction contains many special features in comparison with the process of
other industries, which are an impediment for changes leading to process
improvement. The risk that the project might be unsuccessful is in fact the
risk that particular elements in the construction process might be
unsuccessful. Risk management should be subordinated to the construction
process. This means that the approach to risk management in construction
should be changed from risk-driven project management to process-driven
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risk management. Improving certain elements of risk management lead to
better understanding and to changes, in other words, to improvement of the
construction process, which is one of the main goals of the construction
industry.
o The Construction Process Protocol is by nature a generic process and is thus
suitable for the construction process within which the framework for process-
driven risk management will be situated. As a plan of work, Process Protocol
enables managing the project from Demonstrating the Need to Operation and
Maintenance regardless of the type, size and purpose of the project that is
being realised. According to Process Protocol, every project can be executed
through the successful execution of 10 phases grouped in 4 stages. Every
phase contains so-called high-level processes as a group of activities that
must be realised for the successful conclusion of that phase. High-level
processes are broken down into sub-processes in as many levels as the
Protocol user deems necessary for the project. The break down of the process
in sub-processes provides a good foundation for identifying key risks that are
independent of the project being realised. Sub-processes are potential risk
sources so risk management in fact means ensuring the success of each sub-
process within the entire construction process. Ensuring the successful
execution of the construction process leads to process improvement, which
gives additional weight to Process Protocol.
10.1.1 LESSONS LEARNED FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
The framework for process-driven risk management in construction projects, based
on Process Protocol and the PP-Risk computer programme as IT support for the
proposed framework, were tested and verified on the example of a tunnel planned in
the near future. A group of experts, who in various ways played a major part in the
realization of similar projects in the past and who are expected to have major
participation in future projects, helped in the application and verification of the
proposed framework.
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The application of the proposed framework and the experts' verification has provided
useful lessons for future research and application. The lessons can be summarized as
follows:
1. The experts supported the division of the project into 10 phases following the
structure of the Process Protocol (see chapter 5). The Construction Process Protocol
is a generic process and thus provides a good basis for generic process-driven risk
management.
2. The proposed list of key risks for all the phases through which the project passes
related to the Process Protocol (see chapter 6) is appropriate for the first analysis but
it might be modified in the future as the project develops incorporating the project-
related risks which may appear during project execution.
3. The AHP technique was found appropriate for establishing the risk priority list in
the each phase of the construction process. Some participants were not familiar with
this technique, so it is possible that this problem might occur in the future. This
would suggest that all participants should be made fully aware of the AHP technique
before beginning to use the system.
4. There was some difficulty experienced by the experts in trying to be consistent in
all judgments, but aided by the PP-Risk computer programme participants were able
to achieve consistency in their judgments. It was found difficult to make a large
number of judgments at once and keep the consistency. Therefore, it has been
suggested use is made of the PP-Risk computer programme at the beginning of the
risk analysis. This led to the conclusion that each participant should be provided in
the future with the PP-Risk computer programme to avoid this problem.
5. All the experts found that the proposed framework helped them understand the
construction process better and the assessment of risk.
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6. The proposed framework improves communication throughout all Activity Zones.
Project managers gather information on risk from all the relevant participants in the
projects no matter which the Activity Zone they participate in.
10.1.2 PROVING THE HYPOTHESES
After analysing the applicability of the proposed framework and the corresponding
IT support, and their verification by the experts, the following conclusions may be
drawn:
o The proposed framework for process-driven risk management is an
improvement on current construction project practice because it provides
better understanding of the construction process for all participants in project
realisation. To identify risks, that is, events that may threaten the successful
realisation of a project phase, and to analyse those risks and find an adequate
risk response, all participants in the process must understand the construction
process on a much higher level. This conclusion supports the first
hypothesis of this research.
o The proposed framework calls for the identification of key risks in
construction projects that are independent of the size, type and purpose of the
project. PP-Risk makes it possible to form and update a database that would
contain the key risks and be accessible to all interested project managers. This
database will help improve current construction project practice. This
conclusion supports the second hypothesis of this research.
o If documented experiences from earlier executed projects exist, it will be
possible to implement quantitative risk analysis and avoid any subjectivity in
deciding. If such experiences do not exist the proposed framework provides
qualitative risk analysis with constant control of consistency in subjective
decision-making. Furthermore, the framework enables combining
quantitative and qualitative risk analysis, thus allowing a holistic assessment
of risk from Demonstrating the Need to Operation and Maintenance. This is
an improvement on current construction project practice. This conclusion
supports the third hypothesis of this research.
o The proposed framework, together with the IT support, inaugurates a new
approach to risk management by placing it within the construction process,
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i.e. it applies process-driven risk management. Implementing this approach is
an improvement on current construction project practice. This conclusion
supports the fourth hypothesis of this research.
It may generally be concluded that the primary goal of this research has been
achieved because a framework has been developed enabling a systematic approach to
risk management in construction projects, whose application in construction practice
would enable changes and improvements in the construction industry. In addition a
PP-Risk computer programme has been developed as an IT support for the proposed
framework.
10.1.3 CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE
The main outcome of this research is an advance of knowledge within the application
of risk management to construction projects.
A new approach for managing risk in construction has been developed which has is
based on a recently established Process Protocol which is now being widely adopted.
This has enabled a process-driven risk management system to be developed which
can be overlaid on the Process Protocol maps for basic activities and operations. This
is the first time to the author's knowledge that such a protocol has been used for such
a purpose. It provides a basis for a generic approach to risk management in
construction projects.
Phillips (1991) made a compilation of 21 definitions of "originality " in her studies of
supervisors and students undertaking PhD studies in order to establish how a thesis
could contribute to knowledge. Of the 21 definitions the originality of this thesis
may be found in the following within her list:
1. Making a synthesis of things that have not been put together before
The Process Protocol, developed by Cooper et al. at the University of Salford is a
generic process and assists in the management of a project from recognition of need
for a building to its operation and maintenance. It was found that Process Protocol is
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a suitable vehicle for a variety of management control systems but to date no on had
developed a risk management system which could overlay the whole process. This
thesis outlines such an approach.
2. Adding to knowledge in a way that has not been done before
Every contruction project passes through phases, each of which has purpose, duration
and scope of work. Risk and uncertainty are inherent in all the phases of
construction process.
The literature review shows that most authors have tended to focus on different
techniques for quantitative or qualitative risk assessment, risk registers, the role of
risk management in project management, and other mechanisms. This thesis argues
that realising a construction project is a process and that the risk management process
should be subordinated to the construction process
Therefore, the proposed framework introduces a new approach to risk management
by embedding it within the construction process. It has thereby developed a
process-driven risk management approach which is appropriate to process related
protocols.
10.2 FUTURE WORK
Risk is a part of every day life and the future is largely unknown. It is not possible to
predict or colonise future events but it is possible to influence their outcomes.
Consideration of the future always requires thinking. We can never have full
information about the future, and yet our actions are going to take place, and have
consequences, in the future. So,creative thinking can be required to foresee the
consequences of action and to generate further alternatives for consideration (de
Bono, 1993).
The proposed framework attempts to establish a creative approach to risk
management in construction and at the same time the proposed framework provides
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a practical and usable tool for managing risk in construction and will assist project
managers at the time they need to make decisions.
The framework proposed provides a basis for future evolution and development. As
the framework is used in practice so it can be refined and developed. It will also be
able to be tailored to the needs of particular applications. This study has shown its
usefulness as a generic tool and its application in a single project. The evidence
suggests that the potential for risk management in other types of project is
significant.
Future research should rely on experiences gained in the application of the
framework and might concentrate on three aspects:
o Extend or revise the database that contains the list of key risks identified in
each phase through which the construction project passes in its development
according to Process Protocol, and which are independent of its type, size and
purpose.
o Research and quantify criteria of acceptability of the identified risks
depending on the percentage to which the exposure of a particular risk
participates in the total risk exposure of the phase in which the risk appears.
o The cyclical risk management process, which is implemented in every phase,
should be extended by phase risk adjusted cost estimate and a strategy
developed for managing the risk budget in the construction process.
Appendix 1
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APPENDIX 1: Description of the phases in the construction process
according to the Process Protocol
Appendix 1
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PHASE ZERO – DEMONSTRATING THE NEED
The purpose of phase zero is to answer the question: 'What is the problem?'
Description of Phase
o It is important to establish and demonstrate the client's business needs and
ensure problems are defined in detail. Identifying the key stakeholders and
their requirements will enable the development of the Business Case as part
of the client's overall business objectives.
Before the Phase
o The 'user' t.e. business, customer is communicating the problem to the client.
o A master plan (of the client's strategic issues) should be available.
During the Phase
o Bring together the business case, facilities manageemnt (client and users).
o Carry out the necessary activities to produce the deliverables.
Goals
o Establish the need for a project to satisfy the client's business requirements.
o Gain approval to proceed to Phase 1.
Gate Status
o 'Soft' gate.
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PHASE ONE – CONCEPTION OF NEED
The purpose of phase one is to answer the question: 'What are the options and how
will they be addressed?'
Description of Phase
o The initial statement of need becomes increasingly defined and developed
into a structured brief. To this end, all the project stakeholders need to be
identified and their requirements captured. The purpose of this phase is to
answer the question 'What are the options and how will they be addressed?'
Before the Phase
o Approval to proceed obtained.
o Approval for funding obtained (probably up to phase 3 depending on the size
of the project).
o Results of studies to define need(s) are available.
o Initial stakeholders are identified.
During the Phase
o Identify and refine the statement of need(s).
o Develop the project brief according to the business case developed in phase 0.
o Update stakeholder list/group mambership.
o Identify options i.e. do nothing, manage the problem, develop a solution.
Goals
o Identify potential solutions to the need and plan for feasibility (phase two).
o Gain authority and financial approval to proceed to phase 2.
Gate Status
o 'Soft' gate
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PHASE TWO – OUTLINE FEASIBILITY
The purpose of phase two is to answer the question: 'Which option(s) should be
considered further?'
Description of Phase
o Many options could be presented as possible solutions to the identified
problem. The purpose of this phase is to examine the feasibility of the project
and narrow down the solutions that should be considered further. These
solutions should offer the best match with the client's objectives and business
needs.
Before the Phase
o Facilitate for the introduction of new project participants.
o Appoint the 'core teams' that will form the activity zones.
During the Phase
o Undertake feasibility studies for all options including necessary planning
approvals.
o Revise Business Case.
Goals
o Examine the feasibility of the options presented in phase 1 and decide which
ones should be considered for substantive feasibility.
o Gain approval to proceed to phase 3 (Substantive feasibility study and outline
financial authority).
Gate Status
o 'Soft' gate
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PHASE THREE – SUBSTANTIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY &
OUTLINE FINANCIAL AUTHORITY
The purpose of phase three is to answer the question: 'Should the proposed
solution(s) be financed for development?'
Description of Phase
o The decision to develop a solution or solutions further will need to be
informed by the results of the substantive feasibility study or studies. The
purpose of this phase is to finance the 'right' solution for concept design
development and outline planning approval.
Before the Phase
o Re-define the project brief/business case and project objectives based on
outline feasibility results.
o As the options become more defined, consider project success criteria and
performance measures.
During the Phase
o Challenge the need(s)/opportunities.
o Conduct substantive cost/benefit analyses.
o Submit application(s) for statutory approval(s).
o Produce the concept design plan.
Goals
o Gain approval to proceed to phase 4.
o Gain financial approval (perhaps until phase 5).
Gate Status
o 'Hard' gate
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PHASE FOUR – OUTLINE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
The purpose of phase four is to answer the question: 'How does the solution translate
to an outline design?'
Description of Phase
o The purpose of this phase is to translate the chosen option into an outline
design solution according to the project brief. A number of potential design
solutions are identified and presented for selection. Some of the major design
elements should be identified.
Before the Phase
o Define the systems i.e. sub-assemblies.
o Define the criteria for evaluating the systems e.g. production time scale, cost,
resources required, etc.
o Identify major system interfaces and interactions to enable communications
and facilitate the introduction of project design teams.
o Facilitate the introduction of key system suppliers.
During the Phase
o Iterative development of outline concept design.
o Refine project / system solutions
o Develop basic schematics i.e. plans, elevatons, etc.
o Identify the implications of system solutions in relation to other system
solutions and to the overall project.
o Identify production supply chain.
Goals
o Identify major design elements based on the options presented.
o Gain approval to proceed to phase 5.
Gate Status
o 'Soft' gate
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PHASE FIVE – FULL CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
The purpose of phase five is to answer the question: 'Can we apply for planning
permission?'
Description of Phase
o The conceptual design should present the chosen solution in more detailed
form to include M&E, architecture, etc. A number of buildability and design
studies might be produced to prepare the design for detailed planning
approval.
Before the Phase
o Review membership of design teams.
o Review evaluation criteria for concept design.
o Some of the major systems are identified.
During the Phase
o Develop system concept design.
o System interface studies.
o Identify resourcing requirements.
Goals
o Conceptual design and all deliverables ready for detailed planning approval.
o Gain approval to proceed to phase 6.
Gate Status
o 'Hard' gate
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PHASE SIX – COORDINATED DESIGN, PROCUREMENT &
FULL FINANCIAL AUTHORITY
The purpose of phase six is to answer the question: 'Are the Major design elements
fixed?'
Description of Phase
o The purpose of this phase is to ensure the coordination of the design
information. The detailed information provided should enable the
predictability of cost, design, production and maintenance issues amongst
others. Full financial authority will ensure the enactment of production and
construction works.
Before the Phase
o Review membership of design teams.
o Review evaluation criteria for co-ordinated design.
o Major building elements are fixed.
During the Phase
o Assemble the co-ordinated product model.
o Review and update major deliverables.
o Review supply chain analysis.
Goals
o Fix all major design elements to allow the project to proceed to phase 7.
o Gain approval to proceed to phase 7 and (in most cases) through to the end of
the project.
o Gain full financial approval for the project.
Gate Status
o 'Hard' gate
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PHASE SEVEN – PRODUCTION INFORMATION
The purpose of phase seven is to answer the question: 'Is the detail 'right' for
construction?'
Description of Phase
o The detail of the design should be determined to enable the planning of
construction including assembly and enabling works. Preferably no more
changes in the design should occur after this stage. Every effort should be
made to optimise the design after consideration of the whole lifecycle of the
product.
Before the Phase
o Review membership of design teams.
o Review evaluation criteria for co-ordinated design (ideally design 100%
complete).
o Review and update communication strategy.
During the Phase
o Develop co-ordinated fabrication design/detail for the co-ordinated product
model.
o Develop production process map for on and off-site activities for each
system/work package.
o Start 'enabling works'.
Goals
o Finalise all major deliverables and proceed to the construction phase.
o Gain approval to proceed through to phase 9.
Gate Status
o 'Soft' gate
Appendix 1
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PHASE EIGHT – CONSTRUCTION
The purpose of phase eight is to answer the question: 'Are we ready to hand-over the
facility?'
Description of Phase
o The design fixity and careful consideration of all constraints achieved at the
previous phase should ensure the 'trouble-free' construction of the product.
Any problems identified should be analysed to ensure that they do not re-ocur
in future projects.
Before the Phase
o Finalise all major deliverables such as the project brief, business case, project
execution plan, etc.
o Finalise drawings for construction along with production information.
o Ensure that all supplier bodies are in place.
o Formulate contingency plans to accommodate possible obstructive elements
such as weather.
During the Phase
o Undertake construction works.
o Manage and monitor costs, materials, equipment and quality of supplier's
work.
o Manage the construction process and review and implement handover plan.
o Manage health and safety.
o Liaise with stakeholders for future needs.
Goals
o Produce a building that satisfies all client requirements.
o Handover the building as planned.
Gate Status
o 'Hard' gate.
Appendix 1
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PHASE NINE – OPERATION & MAINTENANCE
The purpose of phase nine is to answer the question: 'What can we learn?'
Description of Phase
o The facility is handed over to the client as planned. The post project review
should identify any areas that need to be more considered more carefully in
future projects. The emphasis should be in creating a learning environment
for everybody involved. As built designs are documented and finalised
information is deposited in the Legacy Archive for future use.
Before the Phase
o Construct building as planned.
o Handover the facility with all the relevant documentation.
o Store all the project information and learning lessons in the Legacy Archive.
o Plan for on-going feedback from the client's organisation.
o Management team liaise with contractor team to plan handover.
During the Phase
o Undertake a post project review to examine the level of satisfaction by the
client.
o Examine the fulfilment of all success and performance criteria.
o Establish continuous communications with the client.
o Ongoing review of assets with regards to: functionality, health and safety and
maintining asset information.
Gate Status
o Although there are no formal gates in the process, care should be paid in
establishing a programme of continuous improvement that is communicated
throughout the company and the company's organisation.
Appendix 2
197
APPENDIX 2: The Process Protocol maps
Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 2
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Appendix 3
224
APPENDIX 3: The set of SQL commands for creating the database
Appendix 3
225
CREATE TABLE Phases
(PhaseCode TEXT(1) CONSTRAINT PKPhaseCode PRIMARY KEY,
PhaseName TEXT(100));
CREATE TABLE RiskList
(PhaseCode TEXT(1) CONSTRAINT FKPhaseCode REFERENCES
Phases(PhaseCode),
RiskCode TEXT(3),
RiskName TEXT(100),
CONSTRAINT PKRiskCode PRIMARY KEY(PhaseCode,RiskCode));
CREATE TABLE User
(UserCode TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT PKUserCode PRIMARY KEY,
Name TEXT(30),
Title TEXT(20),
Position TEXT(50));
CREATE TABLE TCQ
(TCQCode TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT PKTCQCode PRIMARY KEY);
CREATE TABLE Criteria
(UserCode TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT FKUserCriteria REFERENCES
User(UserCode),
PhaseCode TEXT(1) CONSTRAINT FKPhaseCriteria REFERENCES
Phases(PhaseCode),
TCQCode1 TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT FKTCQCode1 REFERENCES TCQ(TCQCode),
TCQCode2 TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT FKTCQCode2 REFERENCES TCQ(TCQCode),
Score Double);
CREATE TABLE Probability
(UserCode TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT FKUserProbability REFERENCES
User(UserCode),
PhaseCode TEXT(1) CONSTRAINT FKPhaseProbability REFERENCES
Phases(PhaseCode),
RiskCode1 TEXT(3) CONSTRAINT FKProbabilityCode1 REFERENCES
RiskList(RiskCode),
RiskCode2 TEXT(3) CONSTRAINT FKProbabilityCode2 REFERENCES
RiskList(RiskCode),
Score Double);
CREATE TABLE ImpactTime
(UserCode TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT FKUserTime REFERENCES
User(UserCode),
PhaseCode TEXT(1) CONSTRAINT FKPhaseTime REFERENCES
Phases(PhaseCode),
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226
RiskCode1 TEXT(3) CONSTRAINT FKTimeCode1 REFERENCES
RiskList(RiskCode),
RiskCode2 TEXT(3) CONSTRAINT FKTimeCode2 REFERENCES
RiskList(RiskCode),
Score Double);
CREATE TABLE ImpactCost
(UserCode TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT FKUserCost REFERENCES
User(UserCode),
PhaseCode TEXT(1) CONSTRAINT FKPhaseCost REFERENCES
Phases(PhaseCode),
RiskCode1 TEXT(3) CONSTRAINT FKCostCode1 REFERENCES
RiskList(RiskCode),
RiskCode2 TEXT(3) CONSTRAINT FKCostCode2 REFERENCES
RiskList(RiskCode),
Score Double);
CREATE TABLE ImpactQuality
(UserCode TEXT(10) CONSTRAINT FKUserQuality REFERENCES
User(UserCode),
PhaseCode TEXT(1) CONSTRAINT FKPhaseQuality REFERENCES
Phases(PhaseCode),
RiskCode1 TEXT(3) CONSTRAINT FKQualityCode1 REFERENCES
RiskList(RiskCode),
RiskCode2 TEXT(3) CONSTRAINT FKQualityCode2 REFERENCES
RiskList(RiskCode),
Score Double);
Appendix 4
227
APPENDIX 4: Application of the Process Driven Risk Management
Framework
Appendix 4
228
Phase 0: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 0: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
229
Phase 0: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 0: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
230
Phase 0: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 0: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
231
Phase 1: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 1: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
232
Phase 1: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 1: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
233
Phase 1: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 1: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
234
Phase 2: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 2: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
235
Phase 2: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 2: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
236
Phase 2: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 2: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
237
Phase 3: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 3: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
238
Phase 3: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 3: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
239
Phase 3: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 3: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
240
Phase 4: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 4: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
241
Phase 4: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 4: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
242
Phase 4: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 4: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
243
Phase 5: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 5: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
244
Phase 5: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 5: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
245
Phase 5: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 5: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
246
Phase 6: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 6: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
247
Phase 6: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 6: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
248
Phase 6: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 6: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
249
Phase 7: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 7: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
250
Phase 7: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 7: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
251
Phase 7: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 7: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
252
Phase 8: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 8: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
253
Phase 8: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 8: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
254
Phase 8: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 8: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
255
Phase 9: Risk probability - comparative matrix
Phase 9: Criteria comparison - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
256
Phase 9: Impact on TIME - comparative matrix
Phase 9: Impact on COST - comparative matrix
Appendix 4
257
Phase 9: Impact on QUALITY - comparative matrix
Phase 9: Risk exposure and risk acceptability obtained by PP-Risk
Appendix 4
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RISK RESPONSES
PHASE ZERO – DEMONSTRATING THE NEED
Risk 002: Ill-defined Initial Statement of Need. Risk is undesirable. Response
methods: Risk sharing and reduction. Responsibility for a possible unfavourable
outcome must be defined more precisely, that is, shared out between development,
facilities and project managements, and measures taken for their additional training
and including new people in management teams. Manage this risk using 51% of the
total assets available in this phase, including continuous monitoring and re-
examination of the current value of exposure during phase realisation.
Risk 005: Poor Communications. Risk is acceptable. Response method: Risk
reduction. Engage additional resources to establish a complete and efficient
communication strategy within the management team participating in this project
phase. Use 24% of the total assets available in this phase for defining a
communication strategy. Continuously monitor cost-effectiveness of investments in
improving communications during the realisation of this phase.
Risk 001: Unsatisfactory Market Research. Risk is acceptable. Response method:
Risk retention. As the government founded several firms for infrastructure
construction, the management team should avail itself of the opportunity (the same
owner) of exchanging experiences with other firms that have already constructed
similar facilities. No additional funds need be invested for managing this risk and the
19% of the assets available should be used for further personnel training through
seminars, study trips and other forms of further education.
Risk 004: No Historical Data Analysis. Risk is acceptable. Response methods: Risk
retention. No systematised database about risk sources in earlier similar projects
exists so it is impossible to do anything except continuous monitoring. Therefore this
risk may be neglected. Still, the 6% assets available should be used for forming and
continuously updating the database for this project.
Risk 003: Incomplete Stakeholder List. Risk is negligible. Response methods: No
need. This result is expected because the government is the only stakeholder through
the firms it founded.
Appendix 4
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PHASE ONE – CONCEPTION OF NEED
Risk 105: Incomplete Identification of Potential Solution to the Need. Risk is
undesirable. Response methods: Risk reduction. Reduce risk by engaging consulting
firms and/or independent consultants with the necessary experience in designing
similar facilities. This will help design management to propose a sufficient number
of potential solutions as the bases for a feasibility study. Manage this risk using 68%
of the total assets available in this phase, including continuous monitoring and re-
examination of the current value of exposure during phase realisation.
Risk 101: Ill-defined Final Statement of Need. Risk is acceptable. Response method:
Risk retention. Form an expert group to review the Final Statement of Need and
assess whether the Government’s needs, goals and demands have been completely
defined. Use 20% of the total assets available in this phase to manage this risk.
Risk 104: Poor Communications. Risk is acceptable. Response method: Risk
retention. Include the design management team in the communication chain
alongside all the project participants thus far. Continuously monitor and upgrade
communications quality and level and communications infrastructure, using 12% of
the total assets available in this phase.
Risk 102: Changes in Stakeholder List. Risk is negligible. Response methods: No
need. The only stakeholder is the government, that is, the government-founded firm
for managing infrastructure facilities. Thus this risk may be disregarded.
Risk 103: Poor Assessment of Stakeholder Impact. Risk is negligible. Response
methods: No need. This risk may be disregarded for the same reason as Risk 102.
Appendix 4
260
PHASE TWO – OUTLINE FEASIBILITY
Risk 202: Poor Consideration of Site Investigations. Risk is acceptable. Response
methods: Risk reduction. Site investigations results determine excavation and
supporting methods. Tunnels are longitudinal structures and it is practically
impossible to predict the scope of investigations that will significantly reduce this
risk. The risk can only be reduced by placing 42% of the assets available in the hands
of geotechnical experts, who will foresee the optimal volume and type of
investigations.
Risk 206: Inadequate Cost/Benefit Analysis for Each Option. Risk is acceptable.
Response method: Risk reduction. Use 21% of the assets available in this phase on
additional feasibility studies for particular methods and approaches to particular
solutions, including a cost/benefit analysis for each option.
Risk 203: Poor Consideration of Environmental Impact. Risk is acceptable.
Response method: Risk reduction. Reduce risk by additional analysis of measures
necessary for quality environmental analysis. Use 9% of the total assets available in
this phase to manage this risk.
Risk 201: Poor Communications. Risk is acceptable. Response methods: Risk
retention. Continuously monitor and improve quality of communications and the
communications infrastructure in accordance with the adopted communications
strategy, using 10% of the assets available in this phase.
Risk 205: Unrealistic Completion Dates for Each Option. Risk is acceptable.
Response methods: Risk retention. The risk does not have a large exposure and
should only be continuously monitored during the realisation of this phase, using 8%
of the assets available.
Risk 204: Ill-defined Structure of Funding and Financial Options. Risk is negligible.
Response methods: No need. Major government-funded infrastructure projects have
a clearly defined funding structure.
Appendix 4
261
PHASE THREE – SUBSTANTIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY &
OUTLINE FINANCIAL AUTHORITY
Risk 302: Unsatisfactory Site Investigations. Risk is undesirable. Response methods:
Risk reduction. Unsatisfactory site investigations in tunnel construction may lead to
an unrealistic assessment of the support system along the tunnel and fundamentally
impact the results of feasibility studies. Reduce the risk by engaging a specialised
site investigations institution with experience on similar facilities and additionally
training geotechnicians in the design management team to supervise site
investigations. Manage this risk using 59% of the total assets available in this phase.
Risk 303: Poor Assessment of Environmental Impact. Risk is acceptable. Response
method: Risk reduction. Reduce risk by engaging an independent reviewer to assess
the existing analysis and to act as consultant in making an appropriate impact
analysis. Manage this risk using 22% of the total assets available in this phase.
Risk 301: Poor Communications. Risk is acceptable. Response method: Risk
retention. Ensure quality information exchange between building site and research
laboratories, and offices for assessing environmental impact and making substantive
feasibility studies, with continuous monitoring and improving the adopted
communications strategy and renewing the communications infrastructure. Use 13%
of the assets available in this phase.
Risk 305: Inadequate Substantive Cost-Benefit Analysis. Risk is acceptable.
Response methods: Risk retention. Considering that assets were set aside in the
preceding phase to reduce the risk of inadequate cost/benefit analysis for each option,
the risk exposure is small so the risk should only be monitored and its current
exposure re-examined during the realisation of this phase. Use the 6% assets
available to manage the other risks of this phase.
Risk 304: Ill-defined Structure of Funding and Financial Options. Risk is negligible.
Response methods: No need. Major government-funded infrastructure projects have
a completely defined funding structure for a substantive feasibility study.
Appendix 4
262
PHASE FOUR – OUTLINE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
Risk 404: Inadequate Evaluation of Outline Conceptual Design Alternatives. Risk is
undesirable. Response methods: Risk reduction. Design alternatives in tunnel
construction are proposed on the basis of prior investigations and on
recommendations drawn from the experiences of tunnel builders under similar
conditions. Use 60% of the assets on an independent analysis of the acceptability of
the recommendations for each design alternative.
Risk 402: Lack of Site Investigations Update. Risk is acceptable. Response method:
Risk retention. The relatively small exposure results from the fact that this tunnel is
over 5 km long and that additional investigations cannot cover all the unknowns. Use
the 17% assets available to monitor the risk and continuously re-examine its
exposure during the realisation of this phase.
Risk 403: Lack of Environmental Impact Assessment Update. Risk is acceptable.
Response method: Risk retention. The environmental impact assessment made in the
substantive feasibility study is usually sufficient for tunnels so use the 8% assets
available for monitoring during the realisation of this phase.
Risk 401: Poor Communications. Risk is acceptable. Response methods: Risk
retention. Use the 8% assets and time available for risk monitoring and improving
communications strategy and infrastructure.
Risk 405: Inaccurate Total Cost of Chosen Outline Conceptual Design Estimate.
Risk is acceptable. Response methods: Risk retention. Due to the impossibility of
investigating all the 5 km of the tunnel in detail, it is impossible to exactly anticipate
the distribution of the support system and the excavation method so calculation of the
total costs is only an outline, which fundamentally decreases its significance. The 6%
assets available should be used to additionally train personnel for analysing the costs
of this kind of facility.
Appendix 4
263
PHASE FIVE – FULL CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
Risk 502: Poor Schematic Design for Elements of Chosen Solution. Risk is
undesirable. Response methods: Risk reduction. This risk strongly dominates Phase
5. To reduce it, engage a specialist institution with significant experience in tunnel
design to make the schematic design. Manage this risk using 69% of the total assets
available in this phase, including continuous monitoring and re-examination of the
current value of exposure during phase realisation.
Risk 505: Poor Communications. Risk is acceptable. Response method: Risk
retention. Use the 10% assets and time available for risk monitoring and improving
the communications strategy and infrastructure.
Risk 503: Inadequate Maintenance Plan. Risk is acceptable. Response method: Risk
retention. The risk exposure is relatively small because maintenance strategy is
relatively well defined for tunnels and has been tested on tunnels constructed earlier.
This risk may be disregarded and the 7% assets available used for perfecting
maintenance management.
Risk 504: Inadequate Health and Safety Plan. Risk is acceptable. Response methods:
Risk retention. The risk exposure is relatively small because the health and safety
plan used in tunnel construction is detailed and has been tested on tunnels
constructed earlier. This risk may be disregarded and the 7% assets available
invested in risk monitoring during the realisation of this phase.
Risk 505: Inaccurate Total Cost of Chosen Concept Design Solution Estimate. Risk
is acceptable. Response methods: Risk retention. In this phase of tunnel construction
the calculation of total costs is only an outline, which fundamentally decreases its
significance. The 7% assets available should be used for the further training of staff
to analyse the costs of facilities of this kind.
Appendix 4
264
PHASE SIX – COORDINATED DESIGN, PROCUREMENT & FULL
FINANCIAL AUTHORITY
Risk 604: Poor contractual strategy. Risk is undesirable. Response methods: Risk
sharing and reduction. Use 50% of the assets available in this phase to find the best
contracting strategy for all project participants. Pay special attention to choice of
contract type and contractor selection method, and ensure that the contract covers
risk sharing between investor and contractor, subcontractor, supplier and insurance
company.
Risk 602: Poor Detailed Design for Elements of Chosen Solution. Risk is acceptable.
Response method: Risk reduction. The risk can be reduced if the detailed design
includes work technology and the human and material resources available during
tunnel construction. Use 20% of the total assets available in this phase to manage this
risk.
Risk 605: Unsatisfactory Potential Suppliers Skills and Inability to Fulfil
Requirements. Risk is acceptable. Response method: Risk retention. This risk has
relatively small exposure because of positive experiences on tunnels constructed
earlier. Use the 13% assets available to continuously monitor and re-examine the
current risk exposure during phase realisation.
Risk 601: Poor Communications. Risk is acceptable. Response methods: Risk
retention. Include the potential material and equipment supplies and the contractor in
the communications chain as effectively as possible, using 11% of the assets
available.
Risk 603: Inaccurate Total Cost Based on Detailed Design Estimate. Risk is
acceptable. Response methods: Risk retention. Many unknowns encumber the total
costs calculation so this risk may be disregarded. Use the 5% assets available for
additionally training personnel in costs analysis for facilities of this kind.
Appendix 4
265
PHASE SEVEN – PRODUCTION INFORMATION
Risk 701: Poor Communications. Risk is undesirable. Response methods: Risk
reduction. This phase directly precedes construction and all preparations should now
be made. Considering that communications between designer, material and
equipment supplied and contractor is very important in tunnel construction, invest
49% of the assets available in this phase in communications strategy with continuous
monitoring and re-examining of the current value of exposure during phase
realisation.
Risk 704: Unsatisfactory Procurement Plan. Risk is acceptable. Response method:
Risk reduction. The risk can be reduced by breaking the construction process into
work packages down to the smallest details and by additionally adapting the
procurement plan to the contractor, his human and mechanical resources and to the
possibilities of acquiring material. Manage this risk using 24% of the total assets
available in this phase.
Risk 703 Unsatisfactory Maintenance Plan. Risk is acceptable. Response method:
Risk retention. The maintenance strategy for tunnels built to date is considered
satisfactory. The risk may be disregarded and the 10% assets available used for
perfecting facility maintenance management.
Risk 705: Inability to Finalise Total Cost Based on Production Information. Risk is
acceptable. Response methods: Risk retention. Any calculation of the cost of tunnel
construction before work has begun is imprecise so this risk may be disregarded. Use
the 10% assets and time available to additionally train personnel to analyse the costs
of facilities of this kind.
Risk 702: Unsatisfactory Health and Safety Plan. Risk is acceptable. Response
methods: Risk retention. The Health and Safety Plan for tunnels remains practically
the same as in Phase 5. The risk may be disregarded and the 7% assets available
invested in monitoring the realisation of this project phase.
Appendix 4
266
PHASE EIGHT – CONSTRUCTION
Risk 801: Inappropriate Changes to Design Resulting from Construction Phase. Risk
is undesirable. Response methods: Risk reduction. Because of the differences in
predictions and the actual engineering-geological profile of the soil, or because
project criteria have not been satisfied, the design management team introduces
many changes in the tunnel support system and the excavation methods during work.
Reduce the risk of inappropriate changes by engaging consultants to help the design
management decide. Manage this risk using 59% of the total assets available in this
phase, including continuous monitoring and re-examination of the current value of
exposure during phase realisation.
Risk 802: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Quality of Construction Work. Risk is
acceptable. Response method: Risk reduction. Due to incomplete standards and work
complexity this risk may be reduced by engaging quality-control experts in tunnel
construction who will anticipate all the necessary measures for unquestionable
construction quality control and control of realising project requirements. Use 17%
of the assets available in this phase to supplement the monitoring programme.
Risk 805: Lack of On-Site Resources And Labour Management. Risk is acceptable.
Response method: Risk retention. Prior experience in government-funded tunnel
construction has shown that this risk may be disregarded and the 10% assets
available used for enhancing project management.
Risk 803: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Cost of Construction Work. Risk is
acceptable. Response methods: Risk retention. Firms that manage infrastructure
construction in the name of the government have a well designed system of
monitoring costs of construction work. Use the 8% assets available on the further
training of monitors.
Risk 804: Unsatisfactory Monitoring of Progress of Construction. Risk is acceptable.
Response methods: Risk retention. Firms that manage infrastructure construction in
the name of the government have a well designed system of monitoring construction
progress. Use the 6% assets available on the further training of monitors.
Appendix 4
267
PHASE NINE – OPERATION & MAINTENANCE
Risk 901: Unsatisfactory Building Performance Measurement. Risk is unacceptable.
Risk Response: Risk transfer. Eliminate the risk by contractually transferring it to an
institution that will continually measure building performance during the exploitation
of the facility. Manage this risk using 67% of the total assets available in this phase.
Risk 902: Lack of Maintenance Strategies Update. Risk is acceptable. Response
method: Risk reduction. Reduce the risk by improving maintenance management in
the government institution that manages infrastructure facilites. Maintenance
strategies should be continuously monitored and improved during the realisation of
this phase, for which use 24% of the total assets available.
Risk 903: Lack of Lifecycle Budgetary Requirements Update. Risk is acceptable.
Response method: Risk retention. Since tunnels are infrastructure facilities of
national interest the lack of lifecycle budgetary requirements update may be
disregarded. Use the 9% assets available to respond to the other risks in this phase.
Appendix 5
268
APPENDIX 5: The Questionnaire form used for verification of the
framework
Appendix 5
269
1. What do you think about the proposed breakdown of the construction
project in 10 phases within 4 stages?
Very appropriate
Appropriate
Generally appropriate
Less appropriate
Not appropriate
2. How generally satisfied are you with the proposed approach whereby risk
management becomes part of the construction process?
Very satisfied
Satisfied
Reasonably satisfied
Dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
3. Do you find the proposed framework useful for risk management in
construction projects?
Very useful
Useful
Somewhat useful
Neutral
Not useful
4. What do you think of the proposed key risks in the construction process
regardless of the project’s type and size?
Very acceptable
Acceptable
Reasonably acceptable
Unacceptable
Appendix 5
270
Very Unacceptable
5. To what extent does using the proposed framework improve your
understanding of process in construction?
Very much
Much
Not much
Some
Not at all
6. Is the proposed framework appropriate for a risk assessment in the stage
in which you managed risks?
Very appropriate
Appropriate
Generally appropriate
Less appropriate
Not appropriate
7. What do you think about the acceptability of AHP for qualitative risk
analysis in the decision making process?
Very acceptable
Acceptable
Reasonably acceptable
Unacceptable
Very Unacceptable
8. How suited is PP-Risk as a Decision Support System for the proposed
framework?
Very suitable
Suitable
Somewhat suitable
Appendix 5
271
Neutral
Not suitable
9. How satisfied are you with the PP-Risk user interface?
Very satisfied
Satisfied
Reasonably satisfied
Dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
10. Assess the benefits of using the proposed framework supported by PP-
Risk for process-driven risk management, from the aspect of time, cost
and quality management?
Significant
Major
Medium
Some
Trivial
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