June 2016 : A report by Hunter Lovins, Anders Wijkman, John

Fullerton, Stewart Wallis, Graeme Maxton

With the generous support of the KR Foundation, Denmark

A FINER FUTURE

IS POSSIBLE How humanity can avoid system

collapse and craft a better economic

system

“WE ARE CALLED TO BE ARCHITECTS OF

THE FUTURE, NOT ITS VICTIMS.”

2

– Buckminster Fuller

Is it possible to stop climate change and the rapid rate of

environmental destruction, while reducing inequality, in a world so

dependent on continuous economic growth?

Not without radical change. A successful transition requires a new

cultural story, one where humanity lives in harmony with nature, and

today's social tensions are greatly reduced.

But this will take many years because a number of barriers need to be

overcome. Given the seriousness of the social and environmental

problems, it would take too long to avoid collapse.

3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

So society needs to buy time. It can do this by moving towards a

circular economy and by transforming the economic system gradually,

by restructuring finance and business, shifting to renewable energy,

reforming food production and redefining the nature of work, to

generate jobs and guarantee livelihoods.

The technology and understanding to make these changes already

exists. It is a question of social and political will.

4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (CONT.)

Climate change, rising inequality and environmental impact show how

urgently we need a more sustainable model of social and economic

development. But is it actually possible to change the economic

system without collapse?

To answer this question, the Club of Rome commissioned an

interdisciplinary and international group of experts to develop a

comprehensive framework for change.

The underlying assumption is that the dominant global economic

system, focused on continuous economic growth, unlimited levels of

consumption, and minimal regulation needs to change. But change is

hard.

5

INTRODUCTION

Humanity is on an economic treadmill, which requires ever-rising

throughput of resources, and which is creating environmental

destruction while also widening social divisions. In short, the current

economic system is moving human society towards an eventual

collapse.

This project has been established to see if there is a better way

forward, to shift our economic world onto a better - though not

necessarily ideal – long term foundation.

6

INTRODUCTION (CONT.)

This report was developed in three stages. In the first stage, a group of

more than 20 internationally renowned experts on climate change,

economics, the media, finance, population, environment degradation,

project planning and other relevant areas were invited to Sweden for

three days in May 2015 to develop the methodology to be used for this

project, define the key issues for analysis and a working hypothesis,

identify data gaps, define the workplan and draft the report outline. A

steering committee was appointed.

During the second stage, the committee commissioned a number of

international experts to provide insight into issues such as an energy

transition, reforming the finance sector and sustainable agriculture,

where additional insight was needed. The results of this work were

then built into the report.

7

METHODOLOGY

Once a draft report was completed, it was peer-reviewed by a wide

range of experts, mostly within the Club of Rome. The entire report is

now being converted into a book for publication in 2017.

8

METHODOLOGY (CONT.)

1. The human world faces civilizational collapse with widespread

environmental and social consequences, many already obvious.

2. The conditions for this were created by human activity and can be

undone by human actions.

3. To avoid collapse, we need to embrace a new cultural story, one

where humanity lives in harmony with nature and where social

tensions are drastically reduced.

4. As this new story will take several years to implement we need a

strategy to survive in the short-term and buy time.

9

CONCLUSIONS

5. Buying time will work only if it is accompanied by reforms in the

sectors of finance and business, agriculture, energy and the

nature of work.

6. We will also need to overcome a number of significant hurdles

that hinder change, some of which are political.

7. A finer future is possible. We already have the understanding and

the technologies to make a successful transformation. It is a

question of political and societal will, as well as time.

10

CONCLUSIONS (CONT.)

1. The world today………………………………………………….......13

2. How did we get here?...................................................................20

3. Telling a better story………………………………………………….29

4. Buying time to make the shift……………………………………….38

5. The key elements of a better economic system…………………..43

6. What is stopping us making the change?.....................................64

7. A finer future is possible……………………………………………..68

11

CONTENT

THE WORLD TODAY

1

In 1972, the Club of Rome rose to prominence with the publication of

The limits to growth. Based on work done at MIT the book presented

12 scenarios for the future, and found that in every case but one (the

sustainability scenario) humanity faced collapse.

This modeling was brought up to date in Graham Turner’s report, “Is

Collapse Imminent?” and verified that humanity has continued on the

Business As Usual (BAU) trend line, warning that, “the BAU scenario

results in collapse of the global economy and environment (where

standards of living fall at rates faster than they have historically risen

due to disruption of normal economic functions), subsequently forcing

population down.”

13

IN 1972 THE LIMITS TO GROWTH ALSO WARNED OF

COLLAPSE

Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (1972). The limits to growth. New York, 102.

Turner, G. (2014). Is global collapse imminent? MSSI Research paper, 4, 21.

1

The dotted lines in the

graph show the “business

as usual” scenario we

have actually experienced.

Use of resources grows,

population rises, availa-

bility of non-renewable

resources begins to fall

until, at some point,

around the mid-2030s,

there is collapse. The solid

lines on the graph are the

actual data from the time

The limits to growth was

published until 2000.

14

IN 1972 THE LIMITS TO GROWTH ALSO WARNED OF

COLLAPSE (CONT.)

Strauss, M. (2012). Looking Back on the Limits of Growth. Smithsonian Magazine.

1

According to the Global Footprint

Network, humanity currently live as if it

had 1.5 planets and concludes that this

can only continue for a short time before

the system forces a return to

equilibrium.

Rockström et al has identified nine

"planetary life support systems" or

boundaries (see picture) essential for

human survival. They found that we

have already crossed four of these:

climate change, biosphere integrity,

land-system change, and

biogeochemical cycles (phosphorus and

nitrogen cycle).

15

HUMANITY ALREADY EXCEEDS SEVERAL PLANETARY

BOUNDARIES AND IS CLOSE TO MANY MORE

Rockström, et al. (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature,461(7263), 472-475.

Steffen, et al. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347(6223), 1259855.

1

A number of the Earth’s ecosystems are approaching "tipping points"

where their ecosystem services will be disrupted. Three are at

particular risk: coral reefs, the Amazon and the oceans.

• Climate change is expected to kill the world's coral reefs progressively and

perhaps as early as 2030.

• The Amazon is drying and facing decay, with the release of large quantities

of greenhouse gases.

• The oceans are acidifying, risking species loss on a large scale.

The Convention on Global Biodiversity warns: "We continue to lose

biodiversity at a rate never before seen in history—extinction rates

may be up to 1,000 times higher than the historical background rate.”

16

AS A CONSEQUENCE, MAJOR ECOSYSTEMS ARE

FACING TIPPING POINTS 1

Hirsch, T. (2010). Global biodiversity outlook 3. UNEP/Earthprint.

17

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY

CLEAR

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability – Summary for Policymakers.Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA.

1

“Climate change is no longer some far-off problem. It is happening

now…disrupting our agriculture and ecosystems, our water and food

supplies, our energy, our infrastructure, human health, human safety...

few things will disrupt our lives as profoundly.” President Obama

… AND THE SITUATION WILL WORSEN FOR MANY

DECADES, NO MATTER WHAT WE NOW DO

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability – Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working

Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 18

1

Early aggressive climate action (left) minimizes future warming. Continued

inaction (right) results in catastrophic levels of warming, 6°C over much of

the world. All we can do is limit the pace of change.

19

SOCIALLY THERE ARE BIG PROBLEMS TOO: THERE

IS EXTREME AND WIDENING INCOME INEQUALITY

OXFAM. (2016). An Economy For the 1%. Available at: https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bp210-

economy-one-percent-tax-havens-180116-en_0.pdf

1

Just the wealth of 62 people is

equal to the wealth of the

poorest 3.5 billion. The richest

1% have more wealth than the

other 99%.

This brings a growing risk of

social unrest. The pursuit of

economic growth, which many

think is the way to narrow this

gap, and also to reduce global

poverty is incompatible with

staying within planetary

boundaries. It would increase

resource use and energy

demands even more.

HOW DID WE GET

HERE?

2

In 2010, NASA funded the Human And Nature DYnamical Study

(HANDY) Study: “Is Industrial Civilization Headed for Irreversible

Collapse?”

The study found that two features have played a central role in the

process of all cases of civilization collapse over the last five thousand

years:

1. “...the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the

ecological carrying capacity; and

2. ...the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and

Masses (or "Commoners) [poor]."

The study concluded that “under conditions closely reflecting the

reality of the world today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid.”

21

COLLAPSE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO AVOID

Motesharrei, S., Rivas, J., & Kalnay, E. (2014). Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in

the collapse or sustainability of societies. Ecological Economics, 101, 90-102.

1

HUMANITY CREATED THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM THAT

BROUGHT US HERE

22

2

The dominant economic system is built on the notion of growth in GDP,

which, as presently organised, requires an ever-higher throughput of

energy and materials. This dynamic lies at the root of our social and

environmental problems. GDP is a quantitative indicator and says

nothing about the qualitative dimensions of growth.

In the last 50 years, the rise in the human population and a more

extreme version of the free-market economic thinking, has made the

situation worse. In 1947 Ludwig von Mises, Fredrick Hayek, Milton

Friedman and 33 other prominent economists formed the Mont Pelerin

Society which established the intellectual foundation of today's extreme

sort of neo-liberalism, the ideology that underpins most national

economic policies, even those nominally labeled otherwise.

23

…WHERE SHORT TERM PROFIT AND MATERIAL

WEALTH ARE PURSUED 2

Neo-liberalism holds that government interference is undesirable, that

markets should be minimally regulated and that individual freedom is

paramount. Proponents believe that strong property rights, little

government interference and free trade are the best institutional

means through which liberty and freedom can be achieved.

These ideas have led to a widespread conviction that the only

legitimate goal of business is to maximize shareholder value in the

short term. Any other action by a company is seen as philanthropy,

which comes at the expense of corporate owners.

To maintain economic growth, and so output, modern society seeks to

meet non-material needs with material goods, celebrating

consumerism. Conversely, if humanity stops consuming, the economy

falls into a recession, with rising unemployment and even wider

inequality.

24

…WHERE SHORT TERM PROFIT AND MATERIAL

WEALTH ARE PURSUED (CONT.) 2

So wealth and success are measured in dollars and Simon Kuznet’s

gross domestic product (GDP) is viewed as the hallmark of national

achievement.

Neo-liberals believe that maximizing individual utility (in this case

through material wealth) ensures the maximization of total social utility.

Proponents of this worldview see inequality as both acceptable and

inevitable.

With the election in the US of

Ronald Reagan, and of

Margaret Thatcher in the UK,

the ideology of neo-liberalism

came to domination.

Members of the Mont Pelerin

Society have advised many

heads of state and their

influence remains strong.

Their thinking still dominates

teaching in universities and

many leading advisory groups

and think-tanks

25

SINCE 1980 NEO-LIBERALISM HAS BEEN THE

DOMINANT ECONOMIC IDEOLOGY

Mont Pelerin Society. (2015). Friedrich Hayek. Available at https://www.montpelerin.org/f-a-hayek/

2

Picture: Friedrich Hayek from the Mont Pelerin

society meets with US President Ronald Reagan

Neo-liberalism has only dominated global economic thinking for 35

years. So we know it is possible to change the dominant economic

philosophy.

Advanced western economies have actually experienced two major

economic transformations in the last 100 years.

• From the 1930s to the late 1970s Keynesianism, with its emphasis on the

management of markets and the provision of social safety nets and social

security, dominated.

• Since the late 1970s neo-liberalism, with its focus on individualism and free-

markets, has dominated.

26

ENDING THE DOMINANCE OF EXTREME NEO-

LIBERALISM IS POSSIBLE 2

Shifts in economic thinking during the 20th century occurred because

advocates of the new system discredited the old system or story. They

created a new story, weakened existing power bases and constructed

new power bases.

The neo-liberals created and disseminated a message that rested on

four principles: small government, free markets, freedom of the

individual and strong defence. These have been continually repeated

and become embedded in global thinking.

The task facing humanity now is to create a compelling new story and

a powerful movement for a new economic system based on different

values, such as strengthening human dignity, promoting the common

good and good stewardship of nature.

27

IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO TRANSITION TO A MORE

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC SYSTEM 2

For there to be a change to a better system, social and political leaders

throughout would need to demand change.

To do this they need to understand that change is both possible and

desirable, that it would lead to a better outcome. They need to see a

better way forward.

New power bases and political movements operating at all levels of

society, would also be needed – local, national, regional and,

eventually, global.

These would consist of collaborating networks from civil society, from

research and policy communities, from business, from faith groups,

from cultural groups, and from new economics practitioners. Such

groups are needed to fuel and sustain change.

28

A UNIVERSAL MOVEMENT AND POLITICAL ACCEPT-

ANCE ARE NEEDED FOR A SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION 2

TELLING A BETTER

STORY

3

William Allen, former Chancellor of the Delaware Court of Chancellery,

noted: “One of the marks of a truly dominant intellectual paradigm is

the difficulty people have in even imagining an alternative view.”

Neo-liberalism is not a set of natural laws. Neo-liberalism is our

creation, and it is constantly evolving and changing – consciously or

subconsciously.

What is needed is an alternative view, one that is sustainable and

desirable to the democratic majority, and to those they elect.

WE NEED TO COMMUNICATE AN ALTERNATIVE

ECONOMIC SYSTEM AND TELL A BETTER STORY

30

3

A better story needs to explain how a new economic system would:

• Redistribute income and wealth more fairly

• Meet basic needs of all people on earth

• Allow natural systems to recover and prosper

• Promote long-term thinking and investment

• Maintain a strong economy

• Ensure democratic economic governance and diverse and equitable access

to resources.

31

THIS SHOULD SEEK TO MAXIMISE HUMAN WELL-

BEING WITHIN PLANETARY BOUNDARIES 3

Humanity must operate

within planetary boundaries

and also ensure human well-

being and dignity. We need a

“safe and just operating

space for humanity.”

A rising population - in

combination with wasteful

lifestyles among the rich - will

make it increasingly difficult

to respect the planetary

boundaries. Affluent lifestyles

must be curbed and efforts

made to limit the growth of

population.

32

A SUSTAINABLE AND FAIR ECONOMIC SYSTEM, IN

OTHER WORDS

Raworth, K. (2013). Doughnut Economics. Available at http://www.kateraworth.com/doughnut

3

33

IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO IMPROVE HUMAN WELL-

BEING AND REDUCE THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

Jeffrey, K., Wheatleym, H. & Abdallah, S. (2016). The happy planet index 2016 report. A global index of sustainable well-being,

p.15. Available at http://www.neweconomics.org/projects/entry/happy-planet-index

Just under two on the horizontal axis represents one planet living. If we

are all to live within planetary boundaries, countries need to move to the

top left through decoupling. Currently, many countries are doing the

opposite - increasing their footprint and reducing average wellbeing.

3

Maximizing well-being (feeling well on long-term basis) is key to

freeing humankind from the current consumption-based treadmill

which is so destructive to the planet.

Secure employment and the economic stability matter more to

people’s wellbeing than rate of economic growth in any case.

It is still possible to have economic growth however, as this is a

measure of value. But humanity should not seek economic growth for

its own sake.

Society should focus on reducing the ecological footprint until it is in

balance with nature, and sustainable.

WE NEED TO STOP BOOSTING GDP FOR ITS OWN

SAKE

Berry, C. (2014). Wellbeing in Four Policy Areas Report by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Wellbeing Economics. London: New

Economics Foundation. 34

3

In the current economic system, planetary resources are used to

develop economic wealth. This then flows largely to the rich and the

finance sector. Investment and rewards have a short term focus.

A sustainable system turns this around. The finance sector supports

the economy which is run sustainably for the benefit of the majority,

operates for the long term and exists in balance with the planet

Current system Better system

35

THE PLANET NEEDS TO COME FIRST BECAUSE THIS

IS WHAT MAKES LONG TERM SENSE 3

Planet

Economy

Finance Sector Planet

Economy

Finance Sector

HUMANITY NEEDS BETTER ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES…

Current economic system Better economic system

GDP growth: more economic activity

the aim ‘Beyond GDP’: prosperity the aim

Short-termism Long-termism

Maximisation of return Safeguarding of long-term incomes

Shareholder value Stakeholder value: benefit to society

Extraction of natural resources Management of natural resources

Linear production systems Circular production systems

Short-life products for sale Long-life services

Efficiency measured in monetary terms

(CBA)

Multidimensional efficiency (e.g. multi-

criterion analysis, MCA)

36

3

Nature does not set out to be sustainable but achieves it because it is

regenerative. If the economic system is to prosper long term, it must

operate like nature; regeneratively.

37

…AND A REGENERATIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEM

Fullerton, J. (2015). Regenerative capitalism: how Universal Principles And Patterns Will Shape Our New Economy., p.43 Available at http://capitalinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-Regenerative-Capitalism-4-20-15-final.pdf

3

BUYING TIME TO

MAKE THE SHIFT

4

Given the seriousness of the environmental and social problems, it

would take too long to gain widespread acceptance of a better story

and implement a better economic system. We would not avoid

collapse. So humanity needs to buy time during the transition.

39

TO CREATE A BETTER ECONOMIC SYSTEM AND

AVOID COLLAPSE, WE HAVE TO BUY TIME

Club of Rome, 2016

4

PR

OS

PE

CT

S F

OR

HU

MA

NIT

Y

TIME

In a circular economy, products are designed for ease of recycling,

reuse, disassembly and remanufacturing. It replaces the traditional,

linear ’take, make & dispose’ model that has dominated the economy

so far, and promotes efficient energy and resource use.

40

A CIRCULAR ECONOMY CAN HELP BUY TIME BY

INCREASING RESOURCE EFFICIENCY

Ellen MacArthur Foundation. (2013). Towards the circular economy, p.25. Available at https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/

assets/downloads/publications/ Ellen-MacArthur-Foundation-Towards-the-Circular-Economy-vol.1.pdf

4

Every effort must be made to reduce the pressure on the natural resource base. By doing so we can avoid looming resource constraints, limit ecosystem decline and reduce carbon emissions.

A recent study by the Club of Rome analyzed the impact of a circular economy on carbon emissions, job opportunities and the trade balance in five European countries.

It assumed 1) increasing the renewable portion in the energy mix by cutting fossil fuel use by 50%; 2) enhancing energy efficiency by 25%, and 3) enhancing material efficiency by 25 % by replacing 50% of virgin materials with secondary materials and doubling the life-time of long-lived consumer products.

The results showed that a circular economy would lead to a reduction in carbon emissions by roughly 2/3, a significant increase in the numbers of jobs, and reduced trade imbalances. It makes sense within the existing economic system, in other words, and so would aid a transition.

A CIRCULAR ECONOMY CAN REDUCE EMISSIONS,

CREATE JOBS AND IMPROVE THE TRADE BALANCE

Wijkman, A. & Skånberg, K. (2015). Circular Economy and social benefits. Available at http://www.clubofrome.org/wp-

content/uploads/2016/03/The-Circular-Economy-and-Benefits-for-Society.pdf 41

4

The following policies are needed to move towards a circular

economy:

• Targets for material as well as energy efficiency

• Mandatory targets for use of secondary materials

• Design requirements for products

• Tax on waste incineration

• Tax shift: lower taxes on labor, higher taxes on resources

• No VAT on recycled materials

• Material efficiency as a key priority in climate change mitigation and

adaptation strategies

HOWEVER, WISE POLICIES WILL STILL BE NEEDED

TO PROVIDE THE RIGHT INCENTIVES

42

4

THE KEY

ELEMENTS OF A

BETTER ECONOMIC

SYSTEM

5

William Gibson

Buying time only makes sense if it is accompanied by fundamental

reforms of many economic sectors but primarily:

•Finance and business

•Agriculture

•Energy

•The nature of work

44

DURING THE TRANSITION TO A BETTER SYSTEM.

SOCIETY WILL NEED TO REFORM KEY SECTORS 5

FINANCE AND BUSINESS

45

5

According to the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, the

global economy requires around $90 trillion for infrastructure

investment in cities, energy, and land-use systems over the next 15

years as well as investment in the transition to a low carbon economy,

if we are to stay within the limit of a 2 C global warming.

The scale of this investment and the urgency of transition argue for

quick and radical financial sector reform.

In many countries banks are overly focused on investing in non-

productive and speculative assets. Both structural and incentive

changes (how banks are rewarded) can stop this. Quantitative easing,

by printing money and using it for green energy development, for

example, would be a powerful way to build a zero carbon economy.

46

IN FINANCE, THE EXPECTATIONS OF CAPITAL

MARKETS AND INVESTORS NEED TO BE MODIFIED

The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. (2014). Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report: the

Global Report. Available at http://newclimateeconomy.report/2014/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/NCE-Global-Report_web.pdf

5

‘Quarterly Capitalism’ drives continuous growth and ecological

overshoot. It contributed to the financial crisis too, as banks took on

too much debt to boost returns. Relatively simple remedies include:

• Differential voting rights for shares held for different periods

• Taxation of short term returns

• Shift from a shareholder to a stakeholder economy (one that includes

employees, society and the environment, for example)

• Reform of the private limited company to make it more accountable

• Business charter renewal is based on environmental performance

• Putting major environmental liabilities on company balance sheets.

• New investment methods (rather than just debt and equity) and the ending of

tax exemptions for debt.

47

A REFORMED BUSINESS SECTOR REQUIRES

RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES 5

If the business and finance sector put less store on continuously rising

quarterly earnings, resources are taxed rather than labor and the

environment is properly valued, business and investment priorities will

change.

Changes in investment priorities will help slow the pace of climate

change. Christiana Figueres from UNFCCC noted "Where capital goes

over the next 15 years is going to decide whether we’re actually able to

address climate change and what kind of a century we are going to

have.”

This is made easier in some cases because many sectors are

competitively concentrated. Nearly two-thirds of carbon dioxide &

methane emissions can be attributed to just 90 companies, for

example.

48

THESE CHANGES WILL HELP SLOW CLIMATE

CHANGE

Heede, R. (2014). Tracing anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers, 1854–2010.

Climatic Change, 122(1-2), 229-241

5

AGRICULTURE

49

5

The world’s cultivated soils have lost between 50 and 70 percent of

their original carbon stock. This serious degradation not only makes it

difficult for soils to carry out their many functions (like filtering and

storing fresh water and crop nutrients), it means that what was once

soil carbon has been oxidized upon exposure to air and is now CO2.

50

THE CURRENT INDUSTRIALIZED APPROACH TO

FARMING IS FAILING HUMANITY IN MANY WAYS

Schwartz, J. D. (2014). Soil as Carbon Storehouse: New Weapon in Climate Fight. Yale Environment, 360.

5

The existing approach is

not working in other ways:

Modern industrial

agriculture has not ended

hunger.

The current system is

increasingly vulnerable to

climate change too.

Both developing and developed countries need a major shift in

agricultural development: from a "green revolution" to a "truly

ecological intensification" approach. This implies a rapid and

significant shift from conventional, monoculture-based and high

external-input-dependent industrial production towards sustainable,

regenerative production systems that would improve the productivity of

small-scale farmers.

We need to see a move from a linear to a holistic approach in

agricultural management, which recognizes that a farmer is not only a

producer of agricultural goods, but also a manager of an agro-

ecological system that provides quite a number of public goods and

services (e.g. water, soil, landscape, energy, biodiversity, and

recreation).

51

WE NEED TO SHIFT FROM INDUSTRIAL

AGRICULTURE TO HOLISTIC LAND MANAGEMENT

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2013). Trade and Environment Review 2013. Available at

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditcted2012d3_en.pdf

5

Holistic land management rehabilitates habitats by reducing

overgrazing and erosion and enhancing natural processes, such as

nutrient and water cycling. As a result, land productivity increases,

generating higher cattle production rates of up to 50 percent, while

sequestering tons of carbon.

52

HOLISTIC LAND MANAGEMENT CAN RETURN

CARBON TO THE SOIL

Webster, K. (2015). The Circular Economy: A wealth of flows. Ellen MacArthur Foundation Publishing.

5

ENERGY

53

5

54

TO AVOID CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE THERE

NEEDS TO BE AN ENERGY TRANSITION

Singer, S. (2010). The energy report: 100% renewable energy by 2050, p11. Available at:

http://assets.panda.org/downloads/101223_energy_report_final_print_2.pdf

5

“There are no technological or economic barriers to converting the

entire world to clean, renewable energy sources. It is a question of

whether we have the societal and political will.” Mark Jacobson,

Director, Atmosphere Energy Program Stanford University

Illustrative energy transition

Renewable power is expanding fast; it now represents more than 45%

of overall supply additions. In contrast, the share of nuclear in the

global energy mix is stable while the share of coal has decreased.

According to the International Energy Agency, by 2040, renewable

power will reach a share of 50% in the European Union, around 30%

in China and Japan, and above 25% in the United States and India. By

contrast, coal will account for less than 15% of electricity supply

outside Asia.

55

RENEWABLES ARE ALREADY REPLACING

CONVENTIONAL ENERGY IN MANY PLACES

International Energy Agency. (2015). Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015. Available at

https://www.iea.org/bookshop/708-Medium-Term_Renewable_Energy_Market_Report_2015

5

Photo credit: Activ Solar, 2012

Solar energy is expected to achieve grid parity in 80% of global

markets by 2017.

56

SOLAR WILL SOON BE CHEAPER THAN GRID

ELECTRICITY

O'Rourke, S., Kim, P., & Polavarapu, H. (2007). Solar photovoltaics. Technology and Economics: Thin Film and Crystalline Silicon.

Deutsche Bank, North America.

5

Meeting the IPCC’s conditions for there to be a 66% chance to stay

below a 2 C rise in average global temperatures (Representative

Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 on the graph) is possible if society:

57

SO AN ENERGY TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE

Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., & Le Quéré, C. (2014). Betting on negative emissions.

Nature Climate Change, 4(10), 850-853.

5

•Is fossil free by 2100

•There are negative

emissions during the last

40years of the century

•We develop the technology

to capture this carbon in

sufficient quantities

Energy efficiency: In the transport, buildings and industry sectors

energy demand needs to be reduced by 25% more than the IPCC

baseline by 2050.This will require regulation, innovation and improved

planning

Energy transition: low carbon energy needs to rise from around 15%

in 2010 to roughly 60% by 2050 and then close to 90% by the end of

the century.

Increased electrification: society needs to quit virtually all forms of

fossil fuel use by electrifying everything that can be (cars, heating,

cooling, industry) and powering these sectors with low carbon

electricity (renewables, nuclear, biomass . . ).

58

AND THE STEPS ARE CLEAR

Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., & Le Quéré, C. (2014). Betting on negative emissions.

Nature Climate Change, 4(10), 850-853.

5

THE NATURE OF WORK

59

5

Even though many new jobs will be created in a circular economy,

lowering resource throughput will have negative implications for many

traditional business sectors and for lifting people from poverty. Millions

of jobs will be lost.

Two other trends will make employment more difficult worldwide: a

rising population and technological change, i.e. robotization.

To smooth the transition, society needs to provide meaningful purpose

and sufficient incomes for people, especially those made unemployed

through efficiency gains and to absorb a working population rising by

40 million a year.

WE NEED TO TACKLE THE HURDLE OF JOB

CREATION

Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation. Available at

2013.http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf 60

5

A 2013 Delphi survey of some 300 global experts carried out by the

Millennium Project found that without changes in socio-political-

economic systems, unemployment is thought of as an increasing

trend.

61

FORECASTS SHOW THAT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY

Glenn, J.C., Florescu, E. and The Millennium Project Team. (2015). 2015-16 State of the Future, p.246. Available at

http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html

5

Nearly half of the workforce

will be affected by

automation in some way by

2030.

“Productivity” is seen as “labour productivity” rather than “resource

productivity”. In much of the service sector, in areas such as care,

culture and crafts, aiming to maximise labour productivity like this

makes no sense. Society's economic focus needs to switch from

maximizing labor productivity to maximizing resource productivity.

Work needs to be redefined to provide those who are home carers to

participate in the economy; compulsory pension ages need to be

scrapped; and the state needs to provide a basic income for all those

who need it (sick, elderly and unemployed) in the rich world. The poor

world needs to be provided with incomes & jobs too.

Particularly in richer countries, working time will also need to be

reduced to allow more people to work in paid employment. Work

needs to shared more equitably, in other words, so that society can

make the transition.

RETHINKING PRODUCTIVITY AND REDEFINING WORK

WILL BE CRITICAL

Maxton, G. & Randers, J. (2016 forthcoming). Reinventing Prosperity. Greystone 62

5

WHAT IS STOPPING

US MAKING THE

CHANGE?

6

The steps required to shift humanity onto a sustainable path are

known. The necessary technology is also available.

Making the transition requires many governments to act in a way that

we have not often seen before, and to cooperate more.

Such a change is not unprecedented: The Marshall Plan for the

reconstruction of Europe after World War II required change on a

similar scale. Without actual collapse, however, we acknowledge that

such foresight and focus on the global common good appears very

unlikely. For politicians to act will require concerted pressure by a

sizeable vanguard of informed citizens, combined with a compelling

new story about how we can all live better lives that don’t cost the

earth. This is hard to see, but not impossible.

CHANGING TO A BETTER ECONOMIC SYSTEM IS

POSSIBLE

64

6

Political: Most parties are stuck in an outdated conventional growth

logic, and financially dependent on big business and maintaining the

status quo. Governments, on their own, are unlikely to decide on

making the bold steps necessary.

Vested interests: Those who would lose out are often the wealthiest

and more powerful citizens – the 1%

Short-termism and natural inertia: Humanity is short-termist and

fears change, especially when the alternative is uncertain.

Timing: Change has to be introduced when there is an appetite for it,

and this is hard to anticipate.

65

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF BARRIERS THAT WILL

NEED TO BE OVERCOME

International Labour Office. (2012). Working towards sustainable development: Opportunities for decent work and social inclusion in

a Green Economy. International Labour Office.

6

To overcome these hurdles will require concerted pressure from a

sizeable vanguard of informed citizens, as well as a series of policy

initiatives that can gradually shift the economic system in a better

direction and that, importantly, appeal to the short term mindset of the

majority of voters.

66

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF BARRIERS THAT WILL

NEED TO BE OVERCOME (CONT.) 6

A FINER FUTURE IS

POSSIBLE

7

68

WE ARE IN OVERSHOOT AND NEED TO BRING THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT BACK INTO BALANCE 7

Club of Rome, 2016

The human world is in a dangerous place, in ecological overshoot and

with unsustainable levels of inequality. The situation is still

deteriorating currently, and heading towards collapse.

Humanity's situation is the result of human decisions which led to the

development of our current economic system.

Logically then, different human decisions can change the current

system and avoid collapse.

This is hard, because it requires a new story, a different worldview, and

a number of policy decisions which will be difficult to implement.

69

A TRANSITION WILL BE HARD….. 7

We first need to craft a new cultural story, one where humanity lives in

harmony with nature and where social tensions are drastically reduced

This will take time to implement and so we need to buy time

• through implementing the circular economy

• by progressively reforming key economic sectors (finance and business,

agriculture, energy and the nature of work)

• by introducing policies that appeal to the short-term interests of the

democratic majority

Creating the political and social desire for change is key

A Finer Future IS Possible

70

….BUT A FINER FUTURE IS POSSIBLE 7

“CAN THE WORLD ACTUALLY EASE DOWN

BELOW THE LIMITS AND AVOID COLLAPSE? IS

THERE TIME? IS THERE ENOUGH MONEY,

TECHNOLOGY, FREEDOM, VISION, COMMUNITY,

RESPONSIBILITY, FORESIGHT, DISCIPLINE, AND

LOVE ON A GLOBAL SCALE?”

71

- Donella Meadows in the Limits to Growth

7

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Quéré, C. (2014). Betting on negative emissions. Nature Climate Change, 4(10),

850-853.

31. Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The future of employment: how susceptible are

jobs to computerisation. Available at

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employment.pdf

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78

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Email: anders@wijkman.se

Visit: www.clubofrome.org