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A Development Perspective of Impacts and Adaptation for Human Settlements, Energy and Industry

Manmohan KapsheMaulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Workshop on

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice to Policy

11-12 May 2006, Hotel Metropolitan Nikko, New Delhi

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Presentation Agenda

Present StatusNational Level Integrated AssessmentImpacts and Adaptation StrategiesDevelopment and Climate ChangeManaging TransitionsConclusions

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Present Status

Sectoral studiesFew impact studiesVery few adaptation studiesRegional diversity and Geographical

differencesLimited economic indicators of damages and

costs

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Limitations of Approaches

Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term interactions between the economy, society, and environment

Most of the assumptions are derived from developed world perspective

Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events

Weak behavioral interfacesDistance between analysts and policy

makers

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

National Level Integrated FrameworkNational Implementation

Climate Change Temperature Rise

Precipitation Change Sea Level Rise

Drought and Flood

Global Policy Regimes and International Agreements

Mitigation

Global Emissions and Atmospheric

Ch ange

National Emissions

Energy System Other Emissions

Impacts

Human and Natural Systems

Socio -economic Development Paths

Population, Economy, Technology, Governance

Project / Finance

Mitigation/Adaptation

Policy Instruments

Emissions Trading. Standar ds, Insurance

Institutions

NATCOM, Ministries, Experts, Regulators

Technology

R&D, Technology Transfer and Diffusion

Ad

apta

tion

Adaptation

Fee

d B

ack

Measurements

Emissions, Impacts

Global Assessment

National Assessment

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Sector-Impact matrix

Extent of impacts

Primary data

Secondary data

Total damage

costs

Impact-unit cost matrix

Risk Mitigation packages

Uncertainty and risk

assessment framework

Framework for V&A assessment

Inputs from experts

Primary data

Secondary data

Scenarios

Analytical Framework

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

A Case of Konkan Railway

Dep

ende

nt v

aria

bles

Tem

pera

ture

Rai

nfal

l

Sea

leve

l ris

e

Ext

rem

e ev

ents

Wat

er lo

ggin

g

Veg

etat

ion

grow

th

Lan

d sl

ide

Safe

ty/E

ffic

ienc

y

Mai

nten

ance

Tra

ffic

vol

ume

Forcing Variables

Temperature L M L -- L -- -- -- L

Rainfall L -- M M M H L L M

Sea level rise -- -- -- M L M L -- L

Extreme events -- L -- M -- M L -- M

Water logging -- -- -- -- -- L L -- M

Vegetation growth L L -- -- -- L -- L --

Land slide -- -- -- -- M L M L H

Safety/Efficiency -- -- -- -- L -- L M M

Maintenance -- -- -- -- M L H H M

Traffic volume -- -- -- -- -- -- -- L M

Env

iron

men

tal

Var

iabl

esPr

ojec

t C

ompo

nent

s

Environmental Variables Project Components

A. Increase in mean

More number of days with >200

mm rainfall

Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Less number of days with >200

mm rainfall

Light and spread-over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate

Pro

bab

ili t

y o f

O

ccu r

ren c

e

B. Increase in variance

More number of days with >200

mm rainfall Very high

number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Less number of days with >200

mm rainfall Very less number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate

Pro

bab

ili t

y o f

O

ccu r

ren c

e

Light and spread-over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall C. Increase in mean and variance

More number of days with >200

mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Less number of days with >200

mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate P

roba

bil

i ty

o f

Occ

u rre

n ce

Light and spread-over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall

A. Increase in mean

More number of days with >200

mm rainfall

Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Less number of days with >200

mm rainfall

Light and spread-over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate

Pro

bab

ili t

y o f

O

ccu r

ren c

e

B. Increase in variance

More number of days with >200

mm rainfall Very high

number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Less number of days with >200

mm rainfall Very less number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate

Pro

bab

ili t

y o f

O

ccu r

ren c

e

Light and spread-over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall C. Increase in mean and variance

More number of days with >200

mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm

rainfall

Less number of days with >200

mm rainfall

Present Climate

Future Climate P

roba

bil

i ty

o f

Occ

u rre

n ce

Light and spread-over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation

Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons.

An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h.

Identification of the vulnerable spots and installation of “Raksha Dhaga”. Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity.

Adaptation measures should also consider non technological measures

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Years

TW

h

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Year

GW

Climate Change Impact on Energy

Capacity for additional demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e. 1.5% of reference case

Electricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100

Energy and electricity demand rise from building, irrigation and transport

Energy mix is unaltered.

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Climate Change Impact on Emissions

In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e. 1% rise over reference case

Emissions increase in power and transport sectors

Cumulative increase 710 MT

02468

10121416

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100Years

Mill

ion

Ton

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Uncertainty in Socio-economic Factors

Population growth Fast changing fertility and mortality rates across the region. Migrations resulting from natural disasters like cyclones,

floods and droughts.

Urbanization High rate of urbanization is causing pressure on existing

infrastructure. Change in energy resource use pattern

Economic and social development Level of economic and social development varies across

the region.

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Special Characteristics of Settlements, Energy and Industry Impact are more directly associated with climatic

extremes rather than averages. Possibility of abrupt climate changes not

anticipated by normal response planning Substantively different for relatively developed,

industrialized regions vs. less developed regions. Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of

higher economic damages in developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed areas.

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Adaptation Strategies

Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related events

Contingency planning (such as stockpiling) Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning Relocation and industrial restructuring Planning for likely increase in energy demands Adaptation by industry will be associated with marginal

adjustments to changes in climatic parameters Attention to the security of transportation and other linkage

infrastructures Risk financing and risk mitigation

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Development and Climate: The PerspectiveConventional perspective

Development is a threat to climate Climate change a barrier to development

Development and Climate perspective Pathways that achieve national development goals

are climate-friendly Development is the driving force for addressing

climate change challenges

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Development and Climate:The ParadigmClimate policies and actions to be driven by

national development targets agreed goals under extant international

agreementsExpanding development and climate frontier

though: Innovations (technology, institutions) regional cooperation targeted technology and investment flows aligning stakeholder interests

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Managing Transitions

Socio-Economic Demographic: Urban / Rural, Gender ratio, Migration Life Styles

Development Indicators Income, Equity, Literacy, Health Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances

Political Institutions Laws Policies

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Managing Transitions

Energy Resource Supply Side

Fossil Futures: Conventional Coal/Gas/ Oil, Unconventional Oil/ Gas

Renewable Energy: Bio-technology, Solar Large Hydro: Multi-purpose schemes Nuclear: Fission with zero waste, Fusion

Demand side Efficient Appliances Substitutions (e.g. Information for transport) Advance Technologies: Fuel-cell, Storage, Hydrogen,

economy, Bio-engineering

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Managing Transitions

Technology Logistics: Pipelines Electricity T&D : Decentralized utilities Information: Wireless Nanotechnology

Consumption & Life-style Conservation : Substitutions, Recycling City Planning, Architecture/ Building Codes Sustainable Habits / Tradition

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Managing Transitions

Environment Awareness: Pressure groups Income-effects: e.g. Kuznets phenomenon Laws and Regulations: Global agreements,

National policies Technology: Zero-effluent Processes, Recycling

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Key Issues Contribution of development to mitigation Linkages of impacts and adaptation across sectors Impact of mitigation on energy system, e.g. coal Co-benefits of different emission mitigation pathways Water-energy-food nexus for adaptation Role of development policies to enhance adaptive capacities Continuous v/s extreme events adaptation Needs for risk and uncertainty assessment Role of Technologies Role of Economic instruments (insurance): From non

climate to climate focus, eg. Crop insurance Institutional mechanism (communities, civil society,

governments) in adaptation

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, IndiaB A S I C

Conclusions Identification of critical needs for policy formulation

in local context Customization for local legal and policy frameworks Level of exposure to climate change impacts More studies needed on economic indicators of

damages and costs Development of an analysis framework to work as

broad guideline with flexibility to accommodate situation specific changes

Development of community response mechanism Internalization of adaptation approaches in

development processes for effective implementation

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Thank You.