Upload
truonghanh
View
220
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of aWater Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus
Other UsesResearch Program: Cost-Benefit Analysis of River Regulation:
The case of Eman and Ljusnan
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom
13 augusti 2009
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Agenda
Outline
1 Background
2 CB-rule
3 Costs
4 Benefits
5 Results
6 Conclusions
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Purpose
To develop a framework for CBA within the field
To illustrate how to use the framework
To follow our science → statistics → economics philosophy
Add a tool for decision making
Transparency. Replicability.
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Method
Measurements of the effects of changed water flows at Donje
Focus groups: Interviews in Bollnas
Web survey: N=200 Bollnas county and surroundings
Replacement power: Externalities covered through literaturesurvey.
Regulating power: Forsund - Hjalmarsson
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
The problem
Effects on aquatic organisms, recreation, esthetical values, andso on
But: hydroelectricity cost-effective and essentially emissionneutral
How do we aggregate costs and benefits of a perturbation ofthe regulation of a given hydropower plant?
Choice of object of study
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Important issues for a CBA
Contract between seller and buyer of ”water rights” as a cornerstone of a general equilibrium CBA
This contract used in the CVM (web survey)
Tax system in status quo
(Partial) foreign ownership
Transmission modelled as a natural monopoly
Regulation and other system services
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Electricity trade
Trade with energy certificates
Trade with emission permits
Externalities caused by replacement power (generated abroad)
Downstream hydrological effects
Environmental gains (esthetic and other)
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
The plant
Constructed: 1953
Effect: 67 MW
No. of aggregates: 3
Turbine type: Francis
Type of Station: Underground
Head of dam: 33.4 meter
Normal annual generation: 340 GWh (?)
Regulation: Winter 0.5 (=0.25+0.25) m3s−1 .
Summer 10 m3s−1 .
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
The Donje plant
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
The Klumpstrommen
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Scenarios
Based on discussions with stake holders, economists, andecologists two scenarios were used
Scenario 1 Winter: 0.25 m3s−1 → 3m3s−1 in Klumpstrommen
Scenario 2 Winter+Summer: 0.25 m3s−1 → 3m3s−1
10 m3s−1 → 20 m3s−1
A scenario with ”natural flow” was considered but not used
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Status quo winter (ice free)
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Scenario winter (ice free)
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Scenario winter (ice period)
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Summer status quo
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
PurposeMethodThe problemImportant issues for a CBADonje scenarios
Summer scenario
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
CB rule
General equilibrium perspective
Contract between owner (Fortum) and buyer (inhabitants inthe county of Bollnas) for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
What benefits and costs are generated by 1 and 2 i GE?
dW M = dΠFc + WTPflow + WTP local −WTAE + dT
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Costs
Loss of electricity: 3.7 GWh and 14.3 GWh, respectively
Price forecasts: lower (350-380), upper(350-880), 20 years
Discount rate 3%
MC existing plants 30 SEK/MWh
Variable cost, new plants = 0 (Elforsk, Vattenfall)
Future investments at Donje unaffected
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Nord Pool spot market
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Benefits
Local environmental gains (survey)
Downstream gains (≈ 0)
Environmental costs, replacement power (Danish coal,EcoSenseLE )
NOx , SO2, particulates, NMVOC, CH4, and N2O
NotCO2
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Representativity
1 0 0 1
16−19
20−24
25−44
45−64
65−79
Est. Official Age Sample
% %
Figur: Estimated population pyramids for Bollnas based on official dataand sample data
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Employment
Occupational categories
Searching employment 0.03Employed 0.66
Home worker 0.01Other 0.00
Own business 0.06Parental leave 0.03
Pension 0.12Sick leave 0.05
Student 0.04
Tabell: Stated occupancy in the questionnaire. Percentages
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
WTP question
Proposal to change of the winter season water flow in theBollnasstreams. The Proposal entails an increase of the winterseason water flow from 0.25 m3s−1 to 3 m3s−1. There will be nochange in the summer season water flow. This means that thewater flow will increase from the power station to Varpen (note:this was described in a map not included here) The proposal isdepicted in a series of pictures in the sequel. The total costs for theProposal is not known with certainty at the present time. Supposethat the referendum is held when the cost has become known. If amajority supports the proposal, it will be undertaken. A ”yes”entails each household paying a given sum over a period of 5 years.
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
WTP question c’td
Would you be prepared to pay anything for the proposal? Ifyou are unsure about your exact WTP, you can use an intervalof choice.
State the largest sum that you would be prepared to pay forthe proposal. (Ask about lower and upper if choose interval)
I vote ”no” to the proposal independently of the cost because(state reasons)
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
WTP, average for S1 and S2
Estimator JM03 Weibull Midpoints BK09
Mean 286 258 301 264Standard error 45 33 41 –
Tabell: Estimated mean WTP for different estimators
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Point estimates
Point estimates
Item Point estimate S1 Point estimate S2
dΠF -66 -254
WTP local 18 18
WTPflow 0 0
−WTAE -2 -7∑-50 -243
Tabell: Illustrations of point estimates Scenario 1 and 2. Million SEK.
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Point estimates
Sensitivity analysis
Price trajectories
Discount rate
Demand reduction (tax wedges)
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses
OutlineBackground
CB ruleCosts
BenefitsSurveyResults
Conclusions
Conclusions
Purpose 1: Develop and illustrate framework
Purpose 2: Ecology - Statistics - Economy
To develop: Price forecasts, regulation services, environmentalimpact.
Per-Olov Johansson & Bengt Kristrom A Blueprint for a Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Water Use Conflict. Hydroelectricity Versus Other Uses