8th Session of the IPCC

8/3/2019 8th Session of the IPCC

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Case postale N 23001211 - GENEVA 2SWITZERLAND

United NationsEnvironment ProgrammeProgramme des Nadons Uniespour I'Environnement

World Meteorological OrganizationOrganlsadon meteorologique mondiale

P .O .B ox 3 05 52 - N airo bi, K en yaIN 'T ER GO VER N M E N T A L PA N EL O N CL IM A TE CHA N G E

REPORT OF THE EIGHTH SFSSIONOF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Harare, Zimbabwe, 11-13 November 1992

Tyee Secretariat. WMO. f!lllM: +41227308 215/254/284 Eu: +4122 7331270 ~: 414t99 orvfM CH


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REPORT OF THE EIGHTH SESSION OF THE IPCCHARARE, 11-13 NOVEMBER 1992

OPENING CEREMONIES ~ II II II II ~ e II II ~ v II 11. OPENING OF THE SESSION ............:....... 42. CONTINUING WORK PROGRAMME OF IPCC ........... 5

2a. Presentation by Sir John Houghton .......... 62b. Presentation by Mr. R.A. Reinstein andby Prof. Yu.A. Izrael ............. 62c. Presentation on cross-cutting issuesProf. B. Bol in . a ., II II II II II " " II _ II 0 II .., ,. II 7

3. RESOURCE-BUILDING IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ..... 74 II COUNTRY STUDIES " II II eo 011 III I I II II e _ " e II II lIP 8.5. REVIEW PROCEDURES FOR PUBLICATION OF THE IPCCREPORTS AND OF THE UNDERLYING SUPPORTING MATERIAL 96. REPORT OF THE TASK FORCE ON IPCC STRUCTURE ...... 117. IPCC BUDGET AND OTHER SUPPORT ... 198. APPROVAL OF THE DRAFT REPORT OF THE SEVENTHSESSION OF IPCC . II II II II II II II II "" II II '" II II 199. OTHER BUSINESS ...... e 4i e 19

10. ADOPTION OF THE REPORT OF THE SESSION . c . . . . . 2011. TIME AND PLACE OF THE NEXT SESSION ..0 2012. CLOSING OF THE SESSION ................ 20

APPENDIX AAPPENDIX BAPPENDIX CAPPENDIX DAPPENDIX EAPPENDIX FAPPENDIX GAPPENDIX H


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REPORT OF THE EIGHTH SESSION OF THE IPCCHARARE, 11-13 NOVEMBER 1992(Section 6 was approved by the Panel at the session;the other sections and Appendix E are draftsfor the Panel's approval)

OPENING CEREMONIESThe Minister for Transport and Energy of Zimbabwe, theHon'ble Mr. D. Norman, representing the President of theRepublic, His Excellency Robert Mugabe, was the guest-af-honour.The Director of the Meteorological Services, Zimbabwe,Dr. M.C. Zinyowera, requested the Minister for Environment andTourism of Zimbabwe, the Hon'ble Mr. H. Murerwa, to preside over

the opening ceremonies.In his welcome address, Mr. Murerwa commended the WorldMeteorological Organization and the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme for their initiative in establishing the IPCC. He alsocommended the IPCC for spearheading the debate on the greenhouseeffect and for its effort in raising public awareness of theissue. He called on the.world community to take measures as aprecaution to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climatechange. He said that as a full participant in the negotiationprocess leading to the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (FCCC), and as a signatory of the Convention,Zimbabwe was fully committed to its objectives.Reflecting on the drought which was devastating thenations in the southern part of the African Continent, Mr.Murerwa asked whether these were signals of a changing climate.He expressed the hope that the negotiation process for aConvention on Desertification would start soon and called on theinternational community to support such a Conventionetn conclusion, Mr. Murerwa informed the session thatZimbabwe had just concluded its National Response Conference toUNCED and hoped that the deliberations of the session wouldbenefit Zimbabwe in the implementation of Agenda 21.Six-year old Shaida Agdasi sang for the guests.In his remarks, Professor Obasi expressed appreciationto the Government and people of Zimbabwe for inviting IPCC tohold its eighth session in Harare. He applauded PresidentMugabe1s support and interest in environmental issues.Professor Obasi also applauded the decision of IPCC tohold its eighth session in a developing country; this was amanifestation of the Panel's desire to encourage the developingcountries to more fully participate in its activities. Hecommended the Panel in its efforts to foster co-operation amongthe world scientific and intellectual community in addressing theglobally significant problem of climate change. He hoped that


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IPCC might be able to assist in the transfer of scientificknowledge and expertise from the developed to the developingnations.He drew the attention of the delegates to theIntergovernmental Meeting on the World Climate Programme planned

for 14-16 April 1993 in Geneva. The Meeting would seek astrengthening of the support by governments for the World ClimateProgramme. He urged increased interaction between IPCC and therelevant WMO programmes, the UN system and national, regional andother international bodies.Professor Obasi commended the IPCC for completing its1992 Supplement in time for consideration during the negotiationprocess for the FCCC. He hailed the decision by the Panel toreview its structure in order to respond more effectively to theever-increasing need for information on climate change.Flexibility in the new structure would be necessary so that IPCC

could address new tasks that might arise out of theimplementation of the FCCC and Agenda 21. He assured the Panelthat WMO remained committed to supporting the Panel in achievingits objectives.On behalf of the Executive Director of UNEP, Dr. H.K.Tolba, the UNEP Assistant Executive Director, Dr. M.D. Gwynneexpressed gratitude to th~ Government and people of Zimbabwe forhosting the session which demonstrated the leading role ofZimbabwe in IPCC activities.UNEP accorded high priority to the issue of climatechange and climate variability and it was for this reason thatUNEP had joined the WMO in establishing IPCC. Or. Gwynne howeveradded that the partnership between the two organizations onenvironmental and climate issues had begun long before theestablishment of the IPCC, with and implementation of the WorldClimate Programme (WCP) ..Dr. Gwynne informed the session of thearrangements made by the Scientific Advisory committee - the bodywhich oversees the development and implementation of the WCIRP(the World Climate Impacts and Response strategies Programme, thecomponent of WCP under the responsibility of UNEP) - to ensurecloser liaison between IPCC and the WCIRP. At its last session(Boulder, CO, USA, October 1992), the committee had recommendedthat UNEP's role in country studies be expanded, in support of

the various efforts by IPCC in this field.Citing the periodic reports provided by the Chairman ofIPCC to the sessions of the INC and the 1992 IPCC Assessment, Dr.Gwynne commended the effective role played by IPCC in the processthat led to FCCC and the UNCED decisions. He observed that muchremained to be done, adding that the founda'tionalready laid andthe experience gained over the past four years placed IPCC in agood position to meet future challenges. Dr. Gwynne thanked thosegover nments and internationa l organizations which ma de financialcontributions to support the activities of the Panel. He assuredthe session of UNEP's continued support to IPCC.

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Speaking on behalf of the delegates, Prof. Bolin saidthat he was very pleased to see young people invited to theopening ceremony. The time scale climate change spans isgenerational. It is not yet possible to show statistically thata change in climate is occurring even in the face of recentextreme weather events such as droughts and hurricanes. Theconsequences have economic and social implications: rain or norain and rising sea, for example, have implications for plentyor poverty. The IPCC would continue to improve the understandingof the issue so that generations now and yet to come can makeinformed decisions to meet the challenge of climate change.

A play was presented by the students of North ParkSchool, Harare.In his address to the session read on his behalf by Mr.O. Norman, Minister for Transport and Energy, His ExcellencyComrade Mugabe, President of the Republic of Zimbabwe, welcomedthe delegates and thanked WMO and UNEP for convening the eighthsession of IPCC outside the established centres of the UnitedNations.The President reminded the delegates that thc.1991/92drought in southern Africa was the worst in living memory, havingled to total crop failure, water shortage, human suffering andloss of livestock. Economic performance dropped by 10% and 50%of the population was on drought relief. Funds amounting to US$200 million had been diverted to securing food supplies. Hisgovernment was determined to do everything possible to overcomethe current difficultieseIn spite of limited financial and human resources,Zimbabwe continued to be active in the environmental debate atnational, regional and global levels. In many developingcountries, environmental issues tended to be accorded lowpriority because of economic hardships, and it was difficult tostrike a balance between environmental protection and economicdevelopment. The President added that developing countries wouldrequire assistance to meet the incremental costs of respondingto global environmental issues. He welcomed the creation of theGlobal Environmental Facility and called for transparency in itsmanagement 0The President congratulated IPCC on its completion ofthe 1990 First Assessment Report, the 1992 IPCC Supplement andon the work underway to produce the Second Assessment Reportscheduled for 1995. He urged that particular attention be paidto the socio-economic impacts of climate change, and costs ofadaptation and mitigation in the planned assessment.The President appealed to the international communityto increase their support to projects designed to assistdeveloping countries in agricultural production and droughtpreparedness. He gave as examples, the Drought MonitaringCentres in Nairobi and Harare, and Early Warning units for FoodSecurity. He urged the scientific community to assist in the free

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exchange of scientific knowledge and environmentally soundtechnologies for the benefit of all mankind.Focusing on the future, President Mugabe called for moreattention to be given to those measures which would eliminate thecauses of climate change urging that a collective global approachbe adopted.In the name of President Mugabe, Mr. Norman declared theeighth session of the IPCC open.Mr. Murerwa declared the opening ceremonies closed andinvited Prof. Bolin to take the chair.

1. OPENING OF THE SESSION (agenda item 1)1.1 The Chairman of the IPCC, Prof. B. Bolin, opened thesession at 1155 hours with the Hon'ble Ministers of Zimbabwe forTransport and Energy and for Environment and Tourism present. Theagenda, as approved, is attached in Appendix A.1.2 The chairman invited Mr. L. Breslin of the INCsecretariat and Dr. V. Boldirev, the Director of the WorlaClimate Programme (WMO), to inform the Panel respectively on theplans of the INC and the Intergovernmental Meeting on the WorldClimate Programme planned to take place from 14 to 16 April 1993in Geneva.1.3 Mr. Breslin informed the session that the FrameworkConvention on Climate change had been signed by 157 states andone regional economic integration organization. Four States(Mauritius, Seychelles, Marshall Islands and USA) had alsoratified the convention, which would come into force ninety daysafter the deposit of the fiftieth instrument of ratification,acceptance, approval or accession. The first session of theconference of the Parties would be convened within one year ofthe coming into force of the convention and this was expected inthe second half of 1994.1.4 Article 21 of the Convention requested the head of theinterim secretariat for the Convention to co-operate closely withthe IPCC to ensure that the Panel could respond to the need forobjective scientific and technical advice. The sixth session ofthe Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (INC) would take place in Genevafrom 7 to 10 December 1992 with the main purpose of preparing forthe first session of the Conference of the Parties.1.5 IPCC had a key role to play, particularly as regardsArticle 4 which dealt with the preparation of nationalinventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removalsby sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the MontrealProtocol and measures to mitigate climate change. The Panelwould also have an important role in the development of othercomparable methodologies for country studies.

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1.6 Dr. Boldirev recalled that the decision to hold theIntergovernmental Meeting on WCP was made by the Eleventh WorldMeteorological Congress in May 1991 and had been supported by theUNEP Governing Council. The co-sponsors of the meeting were WMO ,UNEP, UNESCO and its IOC, FAO, UNDP arid ICSU.1.7 In response to the recommendations of Agenda 21 adoptedby the UNCED, the objectives of the meeting were:

to review means of strengthening national climateprogrammes;to assess how national programmes can make greatercontributions internationally;to assess the changed demands on the WCP andassociated activities, the resource needs and toconsider means of meeting new requirements.1.8 New thrusts would be proposed to respond to specificneeds identified in Agenda 21 and in the Framework convention onCli mate Chan ge:

Climate Services for sustainable Development,New Frontiers in Climate Prediction and Science,Dedicated Observations of the Climate System,Assessments of Climate Impacts and Responsestrategies,placing particular emphasis onregional capacities. strengthening national and1.9 Information was provided on recent actions to preparethe Intergovernmental Meeting, including the establishment of anorganizing Committee. Funds were still short to ensure thefullest possible participation by developing countries.2. CONTINUING WORK PROGRAMME OF IPCC (agenda item 2)2.1 It was understood that the details of the work plan onthe subject areas and the time tables covered in thepresentations under this agenda item would be undergoing per iodicreview by the Panel and modification as necessary. It was furtherunderstood that comments on the work plans could be forwarded inwriting to the respective Co-Chairmen.2 .2 In particular, comments and suggestions on the work planof Working Group II should be sent no later than 5 January 1993to Mr. Robert A. Reinstein, the Chairman of Working Group II, toenable the matter to be discussed in detail at a session of theWorking Group planned in Geneva from 8 to 12 February 1993. Mr.Reinstein can be reached through the Office of Global changeOES/EGC, Room 4329 A, Department of state, Washington D.C. 20520,fax: + 202 647 0191.

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2.3 with respect to the development of the work plan ofWorking Group III, the Panel agreed with the Chairman's proposalthat a workshop of experts, with a broad representation fromdeveloped as well as the developing countries and countries witheconomies in transition, be planned in March-April 1993 with theaim of developing the base material to help the Working Groupformulate its work plan.2.4 All three Working Groups were encouraged to collaboratewith relevant international and other organizations as theydeemed fit.2a. Presentation by Sir John Houghton2.5 Sir John Houghton presented the draft workplan. c TheChairman of the IPCC stated that there might be a need for aplenary session of the Working Group and an IPCC session in thefirst half of 1994 to forward a status report to the firstsession of the Conference of the Parties to the FCCCi the statusreport could contain the work on emissions inventories andassociated topics.2.6 In the discussion, the following major points were made:

* the planned scientific work for meeting theobjective (Article 2) of the UN Framework Conventionon Climate Change (FCCC) was of a preliminary natureand this should be so indicated;* both natural and anthropogenic aerosols are ofconcern:* sinks such as oceans would be taken into account tothe extent feasible:* an assessment of the current capability to predictregional climate change (RCe) be emphasized and thatto this end there be a workshop on the modelling ofRCC.

2.7 The Panel agreed with the amended workplan including theschedule (see Appendix B) submitted by Sir John.2b. Presentation by Mr. Robert A. Reinstein and by Prof.Xu, A. Izrael2.8 Mr. Reinstein introduced the general outline for theproposed workplan for the new Working Group II, with an addendumfor the work of its four Subgroups. He indicated that the topicshad not been prioritized. He expressed the view that the studyof impacts and policy options is most fruitfully done in thebroader perspective of sustainable development. The draftworkplan is attached in Appendix C.2.9 The major points made during the discussion were:

* the outputs of the Working Group need to be ofpractical use and hence should be organized bytasks;6


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* while the proposed workshops are an important partof the assessment process for bringing togetherinformation for evaluation, thay do not constitutean assessment in themselves;* the existing networks of experts developed through

the former Working Groups II and III should not belost; these took considerable time and effort tobuild and hence they should not only be maintained,but integrated into the future work;* further development of the workplan for the WorkingGroup would require close coordination both withinthe Working Group and with Working Groups I and III.

2.10 As stated earlier (see paragraph 2.2), the details ofthe workplan would be refined at the forthcoming session of theWorking Group.2c. Presentation on cross-cutting issues by Prof. Bolin2.11 The Chairman's remarks on the future tasks of the IPCCin general and on cross-cutting issues in particular are attachedin Appendix D.2. 12 The discussion was spread over more than one agendaitem. The Panel decided to establish a new Working Group IlIoncross-cutting economic and other issues (see para 6.10 below).It agreed with the Chairman's proposal to conduct an exploratoryworkshop to help the Working Group draft its workplan (see para2.3 above).3. RESOURCE-BUILDING IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (agendaitem 3)3.1 At the invitation of the Chairman, Dr. T. Rosswall, therepresentative of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme(IGBP) of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU)informed the Panel of the status of the IGBP START (System forAnalysis, Research and Training) programme to enhance theresearch capabilities in geo-sciences in the developingcountries.3.2 The following points were made during the presentation:

* the IGBP was launched by ICSU in 1986 to address theinteractive chemical and biological processesregulating the Earth system: START is beingdeveloped by the IGBP in association with the WorldClimate Research Program (WCRP) and the programme onHuman Dimensions of Global Environmental Change(HDGEC) - the WCRP is a joint WMOjICSUjIOC programmewhich was established by WHO and ICSU in 1980; theHDGEC, established more recently, deals with socio-economic research to understand the role of humanactions on the global environment;7


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* START is a response to the growing need for buildingthe scientific capabilities and infrastructurerequired to enable the scientists from developingcountries to participate effectively in all aspectsof planning, coordinating and implementing globalchange research and training;* START aims to establish a global network of researchcentres in 14 regions chosen for their distinctivebio-geographic and socie-economic characteristics;priority is given to establishing' networks indeveloping countries, with an initial emphasis inthe Equatorial South America, Northern Africa, andthe Tropical Asian Monsoon regions;* the START programme is being closely coordinatedwith other similar regional initiatives, such as theInter-American Institute for Global Change Research,and relevant national efforts.

3.3 The IPCC welcomed the presentation and urged that everyeffort be made to ensure that the quality of the regionalresearch networks in developing countries is equal to that indeveloped countries, particularly with respect to communications.4. COUNTRY STUDIES .(agenda item 4)4.1 The Report of the Country Study Workshop (Berkeley,14-16 September 1992) was available to the delegates at thesession in English, French and Spanish. At the invitation of theChairman, Mr. R.A. Reinstein briefly introduced the Report.4.2 The following points were made during the presentationand the ensuing discussion:

* the purpose of the workshop was (i) to inform theparticipating countries of the methodologiesdeveloped or being developed by the IPCC that theycould use in their country studies, (ii) to bringthe views of donor organizations - both multilateraland bilateral - to the attention of the participantsand (iii) to identify common problem areas and waysand means of addressing them;* UNEP was compiling a catalogue ofa second draft of which wascorrections to the draft could beUNEP secreta~iat;

country studies,available; allforwarded to the* UNEP had also received funding from the GlobalEnvironment Facility (GEF) for eleven countrystudies on net greenhouse gas emissions; further,UNEP had completed case studies on some aspects ofth~ impacts of climate change in Brazil andSoutheast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand andVietnam).

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4.3 The need for a clearing house mechanism for informationon potential donors and recipients of scientific-technical adviceand financial assistance was pointed out. The representative ofUNEP informed the Panel that UNEP was providing such acoordination service within the framework of the World ClimateProgramme and expressed the further interest 0f UNEP in expandingthis role. The Panel welcomed these efforts of UNEP. It urgedthat the Working Groups appropriately inform the donor/implementing agencies of the IPCC work on methodologies.

* the process of selecting contributors should beopen; contributors should be selected from a widepool of experts with proven experience from allcountries:

5. REVIEW PROCEDURES FOR PUBLICATION OF THE'IPCC REPORTSAND OF THE UNDERLYING SUPPORTING MATERIAL (agendaitem 5)5.1 The question of IPCC sponsorship of meetings/workshops/conferences was included under this agenda item.5.2 The following points were made during the discussion:

contributors and reviewers

* developing countries and countries with economies intransition may have good potential contributorswhose names frequently do not show up in thepublished literature; IPCC reference to governmentsis one way to identify them;* lists of scientists/experts from all countries whomight be available to contribute should be availableto all IPCC members;* practical considerations necessitate that firstdrafts be written by small groups of lead authorsfor subsequent wider contribution;* the peer review requirements for policymakersummaries need to be carefully specified;." clear guidelines should be set allowing time forreview in woxkp.Lans the process of peer-reviewshould form part of the plans from the start;* international organizations are valuable independentsources of reviews~* suitable expression of the differences of opinionamong contributors and reviewers is necessary: somereviewers in the past had felt that their commentshad not been considered adequately and henceobj'ected to being listed as this impliedconcurrence;

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." consideration should be given to translation in allUN languages of drafts for further contribution andreview;

." common procedures should apply. to all 3 WorkingGroups;Publications." future IPCC budgets should include estimates ofpublication costs;." recycled paper should be specified as part of theformat;." the level of IPCC permissions for publicationsneeded to be decided (for example, canworkshop/Working Group reports be published withoutspecific IPCC permission?);." reports approved by the IPCC and published as IPCCreports or policymaker summaries should be clearlydistinguished from other material generated for IPCCuse:." the list of IPCC publications should be periodicallyupdated, with clear identification between IPCC-approved reports and others; translations of reportsshould also be included in the list: the list shouldbe widely disseminated.

5.3 The document on the draft review procedures which wasconsidered by the Panel during these discussions would be revisedjointly by Dr. A. Apling (UK) and Dr. R.T. Watson (USA) afterconsultations with interested participants. The revised documentwould be submitted to the ninth session of the IPCC for approval.sponsorship of meetings

5.4 The IPCC recognized that requests were beginning to bereceived for IPCC sponsorship of various technical/scientificmeetings and conferences. It agreed that sponsorships may beextended by the Chairman of the IPCC, in consultation with theappropriate Co-Chairmen, if the output of the meeting/conferencecan directly contribute to the IPCC assessment activity.Decisions on major conferences, however, should be referred tothe IPCC Bureau.5.5 The Panel expressed the view that sponsorships shouldnot be automatically deemed to include financial contributions.5.6 It requested that it be informed of the sponsorships atthe earliest opportunity.

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6. REPORT OF THE TASK FORCE ON IPCC STRUCTURE (agendaitem 6)6.1 The Panel completed the unfinished portion of the workof the Task Force. The introductory part of the report of theTask Force which served to guide the Task Force in itsdiscussions is attached in Appendix E.6.2 With regard to its f~ture structure, the Panel decidedas follows.6.3 Support by the IPec for the Framework Convention onClimate Change

Bearing in mind the legal regime established by' theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change I thescientific and technical support of the IPce for the parties tothe Convention and the bodies established by the convention willbe guided by:a. the decisions of the Governing Bodies of the WorldMeteorological Organization and the United NationsEnvironment Programme, including Resolution 1of theforty-fourth session of the WMO Executive council;b. Article 21, Interim Arrangements, of the Convention;c. Article 7, Conference of the Parties, of theConvention; andd. Article 2, Objective, of the Convention, and the

need to identify and shed light on scientificquestions and research requirements related to thisArticle.6.4 Chairman and Vice-Chairmen of the IPec

The work of the IPCC should be led by a Chairman, whoshould be assisted by two vice-Chairmen, at least one of whomshould befrom a developing country.6.5 Duties of the Chairman of IPee

The Chairman of the IPce shall:(a) propose the agenda for, convene and preside over thesessions of the IPCC and of its Bureau;(b) in consultation with the IPec Bureau, take decisionsconcerning the conduct of the IPCC sessions~(c) report on IPCC activities, as appropriate, to theGoverning Bodies of WMO and UNEP, to the sessions ofthe Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on theFcce and to the Conference of the Parties to theFCCC;

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(d) carry out such functions as are assigned or may beassigned by the Principles Governing IPCC Work andby the IPCC.6.6 Duties of the Vice-Chairmen of IPCC

Each Vice-Chairman shall perform such duties as areagreed to between the Chairman and the Vice-Chairmen.6.7 IPCC Working Groups

The IPCC should have 3 Working Groups.6.8 Working Group I6.8.1 Working Group I should assess available information onthe science of climate change, in particular that arising fromhuman activities.

(a) It should consider, inter alia:* developments in the scientific understanding ofpast and present climate, of climate variability,of climate predictability and of climate change;* factors affecting climate change includingfeedbacks .from climate impacts~* progress in the modelling and prediction ofglobal and regional change of climate and sealevel change;* observations of climate, including past climates,and assessment of trends and anomalies;* gaps and uncertainties in current knowledge;

(b) It should develop a methodology for the preparationof national inventories of anthropogenic emissionsby sources and removals by sinks of greenhousegases1 (in cooperation with the IPCC Members, theOECO and other organizations as appropriate). Itshould also develop guidelines for comparablemethodologies for these inventories, taking intoaccount the requirements of the UN FrameworkConvention on Climate Change.(e) It should, on the basis of (b) above and by othermeans, establish best possible estimates of past andpresent regional and global net emissions ofgreenhouse gases.

6.8.2 A peer review process should be incorporated in thepreparation of the reports of the Working Group.

The term "greenhouse gasesII used in this section is asdefined in Article 1 of the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change.

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6.9 Working Group II6.9.1 Working Group II should assess available scientific,technical, environmental, social and economd.c int"ormationregarding impacts of .climate change and regarding responseoptions to adapt to and/or mitigate climate change.

(a) It should consider, inter alia, the impacts ofclimate change on:* vulnerable areas;* resources and ecosystems;* hUman activities.Consideration should include assessment in each ofthese areas of the sensitivity at the regional andnational level to the nature, rate and magnitude ofpotential climate change.

(b) It should consider, inter ~, assessments offuture trends of net emissions of greenhouse gases,impacts of changing technology, adaptation toclimate change, response options to adapt to climatechange and response options to mitigate climatechange by addressing future trends in the netemissions of all greenhouse gases and other factorsof climate change, with particular attention givento the special needs of the developing countries.(c) It should develop common methodologies, whereneeded, for application by those desiring to usethem; such work should include the development ofguidelines for making national assessments of theimpacts of climate change, methodology to assessvulnerability to climate change and methodology toassess technology options.

6.9.2 The Panel agreed that the Working Group should carry outits terms of reference by forming four Subgroups as follows:* Subqroup A, dealing, inter alia, with energy;industry; transportation; urban issues includingrelated human settlements, air quality and health;

waste management and disposal;* subqroup B, dealing, inter glig, with small islandsand coastal zones; oceans and marine ecosystems;tropical cyclones, storm surges and sea levelchange:* sU))group C, dealing, inter alia, with unmanagedresources and terrestrial ecosystems, mountainregions, cryosphere, hydrology and terrestrialimpacts of climate events such as floods;* Subgroup D, dealing, inter alia, withdesertification; droughts; agriculture; forests;land use including various forms of humansettlements; health; management of water resources.

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6.9.3 A peer review process should be incorporated in thepreparation of the reports of the Working Group .6.10 .Working Group III6.10.1 Working Group III should deal with cross-cutting economicand other issues related to climate change. Two issues have beenidentified below at this stage. The IPCC may add other issuesat subseql.lentplenary sessions. The Working Group shallestablish its work plan for tasks (a) and (b) below, which shallbe available to the IPCC for subsequent review' as its workproceeds.

(a) Technical assessments of the socio-economics ofimpacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate changeover both the short and long term and at theregional and global levels. The work plan should,inter alia, consider the following topics: top-downand bottom up economic modelling while taking intoaccount assumptions, variables and applicability toand in different national economic circumstances;the evolution of technological change: methods forrisk assessment; methods for the generic assessmentof response instruments provided, however, that noneof these tasks shall involve the Working Group inmaking policy judgements.The Working Group should consider and develop asnecessary a range of internally consistent scenariosfor future emissions based on reasonable economic,demographic and technological projections, andtaking account of gaps and uncertainties inavailable knowledge, especially concerning theevolution of socio-economic development andtechnology; where possible, policy assumptionsshould reflect their economic and socialconsequences. The scenarios are intended to assistWorking Groups I and II in their assessment of arange of future changes of atmospheric composition,resulting climate changes, and their impacts.

(b)

This work should be carried out in conSUltation withWorking Groups I and II.6.10.2 A peer review process should be incorporated in thepreparation of the reports of the Working Groupo6.11 Officers of the Working Groups

There shall be:(a) 2 Co-Chairmen and 2 Vice-Chairmen for Working GroupIi (however, for the election held at this eighthsession only, the number of Vice-Chairmen would be3; see paragraph 6.17.1);

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(b) 2 Co-Chairmen and 8 Vice-Chairmen for Working GroupII; the Vice-Chairmen will also serve as theCo-Chairmen of the four Subgroups of the WorkingGroup (each Subgroup to have 2 Co-Chairmen);(c) 2 Co-Chairmen and 2 Vice-Chairmen for Working Group

III.6.12 Membership of the IPCC Bureau and special invitees6.12.1 Member states of the United Nations and ,of the WorldMeteorological organization are eligible for election to the IPCCBureau. A listing of such Members by regions is attached inAppendix F.6.12.2 The IPCC Bureau shall consist of:

(a) The Chairman and the two Vice-Chairmen of the IPCCi(b) The Co-Chairmen and the Vice-Chairmen of the 3 IPCCWo rki ng Gr ou ps ;(c) six Regional Representatives, one from each of thefollowing regions:

AfricaAsiaEuropeNorth and Central AmericaSou th Am eri caSouth-West Pacific.6.12.3 The Chairman of the Intergovernmental Negotiatingcommittee (INC) on Climate Change, while not a formal member ofthe Bureau, shall be invited in an ex-officio capacity to attendthe IPCC, the Bureau and the Working Group sessions. From thetime of the first Conference of the Parties to the FCCC, theChairman of the Conference of the Parties shall also be invitedin a similar capacity to the sessions of the IPCC, its Bureau andWo rk ing Gr oup s.6.12.4 The Chairman of the IPCC may, if he deems it desirablefor the work of the Bureau, extend special invitations to othersfrom time to time; the attendance of such special invitees maybe restricted to particular agenda items.6.13 Attendance at the sessions of the IPCC Bureau

The sessions of the Bureau are normally open only to theBureau members and the special invitees. Each governmentrepresented in the Bureau may, however, send one otherrepresentative to the session if it deems this necessary.

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6.14 Terms of reference of the IPCC Bureau6.14.1 The IPCC Bureau shall:

(a) assist the chairman of IPCC with decisions on theconduct of the IPCC sessions;(b) assist the Chairman in monitoring the progress inand coordinating the work of the IPCC;(c) assist the Chairman in assuring the adequacy andtimely receipt of the financial contributi'ons tothe IPCC Trust Fund~(d) perform such other duties as may be assigned toit by the Panel.

Terms of Reference of the Regional Representatives inthe Bureau6.14.2 The Regional Representatives should act as

(1) focal points for bringing together regionalefforts and approaches in relation to the IPCCwork.programme and(ii) ~timulate networking on regional issues ofconcern covered by the IPCC.6.15 TermS of office of the members of the IPCC Bureau6.15.1 The IPCC Vice-Chairmen, all Co-Chairmen and Vice-Chairmenof the IPCC Working Groups and the Regional Representatives ofthe IPCC Bureau should be elected for a three-year period, theirterm beginning immediately upon election. The term of office ofthe current IPCC Chairman, already' re-elected at the sixthsession of the IPCC, should also terminate concurrently with thatof the other members of the IPCC Bureauo However, should theseterms of office expire between the sessions of the IPCC, themembers shall continue in office until the election of newmembers by the IPCC.6.15.2 Should the IPCC Chairman leave office for any reason, anew Chairman shall be elected by the Panel from among its memberswithin 3 months. During that interim period, the Vice-Chairmen,in consultation with the Bureau, shall determine jointly ways andmeans of ensuring the continuation of the Panel's work.6.15.3 The members of the IPee Bureau are eligible for re-election. Should a member of the Bureau, other than the IPCCChairman, leave office for any reason, the country will nominatea replacement for the remainder of the member's term of office.6.16 Procedure for the election of the members of the IPCCBureau6.16.1 The Chairman of the IPCC will invite governments tonominate candidates for election to the offices of theCO-Chairmen of the working Groups and of the Vice-Chairmen of theIPCC and its Working Groups. It is highly desirable that

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Chair Prof. B. BolinSweden

governments ensure the scientific-technical integrity andcredibility of the IPCC by nominating relevant experts forparticipation in the work of the Panel. Thus, the Chairman willrequest that a government indicate the relevant expertise of thecandidate it nominates.6.16.2 For the election at this eighth session of the IPCC, theCo-Chairmen and the Vice-Chairmen were chosen so that developedand developing countries were about equally represented. In thiscontext, this arrangement was viewed as a first step towardsachieving a more balanced representation in the future.6.17 Election of the IPCC Bureau6.17.1 The IPCC elected the Bureau by consensus. The Paneldecided that, for this election only, the number of Vice-Chairmenin Working Group I would be 3. This was to allow for balancedgeographical representation.6.17.2 The membership of the Bureau is:

Members of the IPCC Bureau

Vice-Chairs Saudi ArabiaDr. A. Al-GainRussian FederationProf. Yu. A. Izrael

CO-Chairs united KingdomSir John HoughtonBrazilDr. L.G. Meira Filho

Vice-Chairs ChinaProf. Ding YihuiGermanyDr. H. GrasslSenegalMr. M. Seck

WG II Co-Chairs united statesMr. Robert A. ReinsteinzimbabweDr. M . e . Zinyowera/alternate Mrs. Karimanzira

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Vice-Chairs who are also the CO-Chairs ofsubgroup A IndiaDr. M. Parabrahmam

JapanDr. K. YokoboriSubgroup B The NetherlandsDr. P. Vellinga

VenezuelaIng. Martha PerdomoSubgroup C ArgentinaDr. O. Canziani

switzerlandDr. M. BenistonSubgroup 0 FranceDr. M. Petit

TunisiaMr. A. HentatiWG III Co-Chairs CanadaMs. E. Dowdes well

Republic of KoreaDr. H. LeeVice-Chairs KenyaProf. R.S. Odingo

NorwayMr. T. HanischRegional RepresentativesRegion IAfricaRegion IIAsia

NigeriaDr. J.A. AdejokunKuwaitDr. H. Nasrallah

Region IIIsouth Am erica ColombiaDr. N. SabogalCubaDr. F. Fajardo MorosRegion IVNorth and Central America

Region Vsou th-wes t Pac ificRegion VIEurope

AustraliaDr. W.J. McGregor TegartspainDr. M. Bautista Perez

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7. IPCC BUDGET AND OTHER SUPPORT (agenda item 7)7.1 The IPCC Secretary introduced the document on IPCCBudget and Other Support. The document is attached in AppendixG. Severe cash flow problems continued to be encountered. It wasnoted that the new workplans called for workshops and meetingsearly in 1993 requiring that their planning begin in a few days.This would point to the need for the receipt of funds by thebeginning of December 1992 in the IPCC Trust Fund. The IPCCsecretariat was also stretched very thin and needed assistance.7.2 switzerland announced a pledge of CHF 50,000 for thework on emissions inventories and CHF 40,000 for generalpurposes e Germany and Japan pledged -OM 180,000 and $ 50,000respectively for 1993.7.3 The IPCC requested that

* a budget proposal be presented to its next sessionin the light of the workplans being developed andthat the proposal include a timeline chart of themeetings of the IPCC, its Bureau, Working Groups andsubgroups;* estimates of publication, translation and workshopscosts be included in the next budget proposal;* quarterly reports be forwarded to governments onreceipts and expenditures and on projectedrequirements in the IPCC Trust Fund.

7.4 The IPCC agreed with the Chairman's suggestion that theprobable budget for 1993 proposed in Appendix G be taken to bethe working budget for 1993; the Panel might modify the budgetif necessary in later stages. Further, a report on the detailsof expenditures together with cash flow information should besubmitted to the next session of the IPCC.7.5 The Panel expressed its appreciation to the donors fortheir financial and other support to its_activitiese countrieswith economies in transition also needed- assistance toparticipate in IPCC, particularly in preparing and reviewingreports.7.6 A suggestion was made to have as many IPCC meetings inGeneva as possible.8. APPROVAL OF THE DRAFT REPORT OF THE SEVENTH SESSION OFIPCC (agenda item 8)

The draft report of the subject session was adopted.9. OTHER BUSINESS (agenda item 9)

There was none.

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10. ADOPTION OF THE REPORT OF THE SESSION (agenda item 10)The part of the report on agenda item 6 (Report of theIPCC Task Force on IPCC Structure) had been adopted by the-IPCC.The rest of the report would be submitted, in draft form, to thePanel for approval at its next session.

11. TIME AND PLACE OF THE NEXT SESSION (agenda item 11)The Panel would meet in its next session from 29 to 30June 1993 at the Palais des Nations in Geneva; the IPCC Bureauwould meet in a one-day session on 28 June 1993 also at thePalais des Nations.

12. CLOSING OF THE SESSION (agenda item 12)12.11993. The session closed at 1800 hours on Friday, 13 November

12.2 The list of participants appears in Appendix H.

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APPENDIX". ., World Meteorological OrganizationOrganisation meteorologique mondialeCase postale N 23001211- GENEVA2SWITZERLAND United NationsEnvironment ProgrammeProgramme des Nations Uniespour l'EnviroDDementP.O.Box 30552 Nairobi. KenyaINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANELON CLIMATE CHANGEEIGHTH SESSION

IPCC-VIII/Doc. 1(11. XI 1992 )

Harare, 11-13 November 1992

AGENDA

1. OPENING OF THE SESSION1.1 Welcoming remarks by the representative of theGovernment of Zimbabwe1.2 Remarks by Prof. G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary-Generalof the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)1.3 Remarks by Ore M.Ke TaIba, Executive Director ofthe United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)1.4 Remarks by Prof. B. Bolin, Chairman of the IPCC1.5 Adoption of the agenda1.6 Programme of work of the session

2. CONTINUING WORK PROGRAMME OF IPCC3. RESOURCE-BUILDING IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES4. COUNTRY STUDIES5. REVIEW PROCEDURES AND PUBLICATION OF THE IPCC REPORTS ANDOF THE UNDERLYING SUPPORTING MATERIAL6. REPORT OF THE IPCC TASK FORCE ON IPCC STRUCTURE7. IPCC BUDGET AND OTHER SUPPORT8. APPROVAL OF THE DRAFT REPORT OF THE SEVENTH SESSION OFIPCC (GENEVA, FEBRUARY 1992)9. OTHER BUSINESS10. ADOPTION OF THE REPORT OF THE SESSION11. TIME AND PLACE OF THE NEXT SESSION12. CLOSING OF THE SESSION

IPCC Secn:tariat. WMO. . I !hW: +41227308 215/254/284 fa&: +41227331270 Ida: ~~ 199OMM CH


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,\PPENDIX B

Report of the Chairman of the Science Assessment working group ofIPCC. including a Provisional Workplan for IPCC WG 1 1992~9SSubmi t t ed to th e E igh th S ession o f [ pee . Hara re . Z im b abw e . 11 - L ~ N ov 1992 .

I, The 1992 IPCC SupplementI, I T h e sub stan ce at th e S cien ce A sse ssm en t compon en t o f th e 1992 S upplemen t w as asreed a tth e W GI ple n a ry h e ld in G uan zzh ou. Ch in a . in Ia n ua rv 1992 . a f te r in ten sive wo rk bv 115 le adauth o rs/co n tr ib uto rs f rom 21 coun tr ie s. a nd 341 review ers f rom 60 coun tr ie s a n d 19 n o n -gove rnm en ta l o rgan isa tio n s .. I t reaffirmed, o r fo und n o re ason to que stio n . th e ke~ con clusio n s atth e 1990 S cie nce A sse ssm en t but a lso repo rted sign if ica n t n ew re sea rch co n ce rn in g :

th e clima tic e f fe cts o f o zon e deple tio n and tro posph e ric a e ro so l. tra n sien t clima te sim ula tio n s usin g coupled o cean -a tmo sph ere GC 'v1S re cen t tren ds in diurn a l tem pera ture ran ge . a nd in h em isph e ric an d la nd/se a surface a irtemperatures

2. IPCC guidelines ro r national inventories of net emissions of greenhouse gases2 . l . W ork co n tinued o n th e deve lo pmen t o f [P eC guide lin es. w ith assista nce f rom th e G E CD and[E A . [n July 1992 . un de r f in a ncia l suppo r t f rom U N E P . D r B uruh an i S Nyenz i o f th e T an zan ianD irecto ra te o f M ete o ro lo gy , jo in ed th e W G 1 secre ta r ia t in B ra ckne ll to pro vide o rgan isa tio n a lsuppo rt fo r th e wo rk.2 .2 A full pro gress repo rt on th is w o rk , in cludin g a de ta iled w o rkplan to th e en d o f 1993 .appea rs sepa ra te ly a s IPCCVlIIJDoc:.l0.

3. IPCC/Woods Hole workshop on Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climate System3 . I . T h e a im o f th is w o rksh o p. o rgan ized in co llab o ra tio n w ith th e W oods Ho le R esea rch Cen te r .L S A and h e ld durin g 2 5 -2 .9 O cto b e r 1992 . w as to review pro gress in iden tify i ng th o se pro ce ssesw h ich w ill de te rm in e th e an sw er to th e que stio n : "W ill th e ma rin e an d te rre str ia l b io sph ere s. JS t heyrespo nd now and in th e future to clima te an d o th e r ch anges. d im in ish o r augm en t th e e f fects o f th eh um an -induced rise in a tmo sph eric con cen tra tio n s o f gree nh ouse gase s'! " A w orksh op sta tem en trepresen ting th e co lle ctive view o f th e pa rtic ipan ts w ill b e re le ased sh ortly . T he sta tem en t do es n o tca rr y o ff icia l lPee 'approva l' but it re pre se n ts im po rta n t gro und w o rk in th e prepa ra tio n o f th e n ex tscie nce a sse ssm en t a n d ultim a te ly in esta b lish in g h ow to m ee t th e requirem en ts o f A rticle 2 o f [h eC lim a te C o nv en tio n .

4. Future {PCC Science Assessment workplan 1992~1995.

4, I . A t its f if th ple n a ry se ssio n (G eneva . M a rch 1991) [PCe agreed to co nduct a se co ndassessmen t in th e 1994-95 tirn e f rame , an d th e propo sa ls b e low an ticipa te com ple tio n o f a seco nd.full a ssessm en t in 1995 w h ich w ill pro vide th e sam e com preh en sive co ve r o f th e scien ce as did [h e1990 repo rt. However th e scie n tif ic comm un ity . w h o h ave put a grea t dea l o f e f fo rt in to th e I~an d 1992 repo rts. n ow n eed som e respite f rom th e demands o f W G I so th a t th ey can pro gre ss .ISrap idly a s possib le th eir scie n tif ic w ork .4.2 A t A nn ex I is a pro vision a l list o f ch apte r h e adin gsfo r th e 1995 scien ce assessm en t. we in vite w ritte nsuggestio n s co n ce rn in g th is. T h e list is b ased o n curren t pe rceptio n o f th e key scien tif ic issues .1Od. as o ur

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unde rstan din g o f clima te processes evo lves. it is like ly th at th ere w ill be ch anges in th e de ta il o f A nnex . Aflex ib le appro ach is th ere fo re essen tia l and. in ligh t o f th is. de ta iled prepa ra tio n o f th e ma in pa rt o f th e t 995repo rt w ill commence in la te 1993 /ea rly 1994.

Global Warminq Potential-1 - .3 . I t is an ticipa ted th a t. in o rde r to in fo rm th e f irst Con fe rence o f [h e P a rtie s [0 th e Conven tion abo ut la te stscien tif ic ch inking o n th e re la tive impo rtan ce o f dif fe ren t GGs. IPCC W G I sh ould prepa re . by m id-I994.guidan ce fo r po licy rn ake rs o n radia tive fo rcin g and th e concept o f th e G loba l W arm in g P o ten tia l lGW PLW ith f in ancia l suppo rt f rom th e UK and in con junctio n w ith th e W G I secre ta ria t. D r N eil Harris o f th e O zoneS ecre ra ria r o f th e B ritish A nta rctic Survey . w ill a ssist coo rdin a tio n o f th is w o rk.

Climare effects of ozone and aerosols4A A n [PCe W G I worksh op on th e in fluences o f ozone ch ange an d o f ae ro so ls l o n globa l and la rge -sca le region a l clima te w ill b e h e ld in 1993 . T h e output f rom th is w o rksh op wjl] t'e ed in to [h ose ch apte rs o f (hesecond assessmen t dea ling w ith R adia tive Fo rcin g and w ith G ene ra l Circula tio n M ode ls. .

Joint we I/WG2 workshop on Article 2 of the C limate C onvention4.5 A n [pee worksh o p w ill b e h e ld in ta te 1993 /ea rty 1994, jo in tly w ith W G2 . to explo re curren tkno wledge an d unce rta in tie s. an d to assess meth odo logies re la ted to tw o issues embodied in A rticle 2 o f th eC lim a te C o nv en ti on :

(a ) th e req uiremen ts o f impact a ssessmen ts fo r th e b est po ssib le in fo rmation rega rdin g like ly regiona lc li ma te c h an ze :(b ) th e stab iliza tio n o f GG con cen tra tio n s and th e implica tio n s o f diffe ren t stab iliza tio n scena rio s fo r th eimpact on eco systems ..

Joint WC IIWC2 workshop on Climatlc Causes and the Climatic Repercussions of Oro!Ight & Desertification4.6 A n [ p ee worksh op. jo in tly w ith W G2 . is b e ing planned fo r 1994 to address th e prob lems o f drough tan d de se rtif ica tio n. pa rticula rly th e in te ractio n b etw een lan d-use , w ate r re so urces (in cludin g precipita tio npa tte rn s) an d clima te ch ange (bo th due to na tura l va riab ility and lon g-te rm an th ro pogen ic causes i.W(Jr .kp !an-i.. 7 A n outlin e wo rkplan . culm ina tin g in pub lica tio n o f a second [PCC S cience A ssessmen t. appea rs a tA nnex 2 . A n impo rtan t fea ture o f th e wo rkplan is th e sub stan tia l amoun t o f tim e sch eduled fo r pee r andcoun try review o f th e dra ft repo rts - two and th ree mon th s respective ly .

l W h ile a ll t ypes o f a ero so l w ill b e in cluded, an im po rtan t a im o f ihrs w orksh op is to begin to answ er th ose 4UC~11\ 'ns r i nsed Inthe 199"1[ pee Supplement concerning anthropogenic aerosols and their associated radiauvc lorci ng.

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--- -_._. -_ --. --~---------------------Annex 1

Suggested Outline for the 1995 IPCC Science Assessment.Execut iv e SummaryPolicvmakers Summary

Chapter f. ' Greenhouse Gases Con temporary and pa leo reco rds o f a tmosph er ic distrib utio n s and trends in GGs andpre curso rs .. P a st, curren t and future source s. sinks, rese rvo irs and tran sfo rma tio n so f GGs andprecurso rs. P a rticula r focus on th e ca rb on cycle :

Con tempo rary and paleo reco rds o f a tmosph er ic distributio ns and trends in ae ro so ls andp r e c u r so r s. P ast. curren t and future sources. sin ks. re se rvo irs and tran sfo rma tio n s o f a eroso ls andprecursors .Chapter 3: Radia ii ve Forcing

S o la r fo rcing. M icroph y sica l. ch em ica l. and optica l prope rtie s o f tropo sph e ric a eroso ls.8 R adia tive fo rcin g o f gre en h ouse gases. a e ro so ls and th eir precurso rs. D irect and indirect G lo ba l W arm ing P o ten tia ls tor th e con tem porary and futurea tmospheres .

Chapter 4: Climate Processes Clima te processe s. par ticula rly th ose th a t a ffect wa te r vapour. clo uds. a ir-sen ex ch ange .o ce an circula tio n. ice -a lb edo , la nd-surfa ce .e M odel repre sen ta tio n /pa ra rn e triza tion s and tun ing (e .g ., h ea t and sa lin ity f luxco rre ctio ns)" . R esults from recen t f ie ld expe rimen ts in te rms o f improving mode l (o rmutar io ns andvalida tin g models. e .g .. W OCE . T O GA . FIFE . FIR E and A R M

Chapter 5: vkle! Predict ions r J . T U i Validation(T h is ch apte r may become two ch apte rs in o rder to devo te suf f icien t space and em ph asis to th eimportan t issue o f regio n a l climate an a ly se s and rgion a l clima te predictio n n T ransien t and equilib rium coupled GeM m odel prediction s o f key clim ate pa ram etersw ith a lim ited numbe r o f iden tica l trace gas scen a rio s (issue o f in itia l co nditio ns n eeds tob e c on si de r ed ). A ddre ss th e issue o f "ca rb on dio x ide equiva lence". a e roso ls and a tmosph er ic ozon e R egio n a l ch anges using GeM s. sta tistica l and n ested m odels. S imula tio ns and prediction s o f se ason a l. in te r-annua l and in te r-decada l ch anges inc li ma te .: Compa riso n o f mode ls and ob se rva tio n s ('mode l va lida tio n '). b y regio n . fo r: (i) [h econ tempo ra ry climate . and (Ii) fo r th e la st 10 0 y ea rs b y using mo re rea listic tran sien tcoupled GeM model c alc ula ti on s. P rediction s in th e f requen cy and in ten sity o f ex treme even ts. e .g .. monsoon circula tio n .typh oon s and h urr ican es. drough t. and ex treme ra in fa ll even ts. P redictab ility o f clima te?

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Chapter 6: Observed Cllmaie Variability and OU.JI lge Con tem po ra ry and pala eo -clim ate var ia bility . clim ate ch an ge . a nd clim ate ch an geindicators . D eve lo p th e "e n h an ce d g re en h o use effect" f in g er pr in t a p pr o ac h . R ecen t ob se rved unusua l regio n a l w ea th er pa ttem s.

Chapter 7: Sea Level Rise Con tempo ra ry a nd pa leo region a l and glob a l tren ds in sea leve l P ro cesses re spo nsib le fo r lo ca l. regio na l an d glob al ch an ges in se a level M ass ba lance o f A nta rctica an d G reen lan d ice shee ts . M ode l predictio n s o f sea leve l r ise

Chapter 8 Biotic responses to environmental change and feedbacks to climate(Joint cont r ibut ion from W G liW G2) E ffects o f ch an ges in clim ate an d a tm osph eric co mpo sitio n o n ecosy stem structure ,p ro ce sse s. a n d f un ctio n s. E ffect o f eco system respo nses on a tm osph eric com position an d clim ate .

Chapter 9 Narrowing the Uncertainties

Annex National inventories of greenhouse gas sources and sinks. aerosol and precursoremissions(or may be published as a separate repor t )

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Annex ~Outline workplan for IPCC Working Group 1 a 19921995

1992Sep

Oct

Nov /Dec

1993Jan/Feb

Mar

Apr /May

Juri/July/Aug

(L a te 1993 o rea rly 1994)

Second IPCC ScientificAssessment

26-29: 'B io tic feedbacks' wo rksh op.W oods Ho le . USAD istributio n o f WG L n ew sle tte r in o rder(0i n fo rm s pe c ia li sts an d m em bercountries ab out WG 1 workprogramme. and c o facilitateparticipa tion in it.

M eeting o f expe rts on th e Carbon cycleand radiative fo rcing to plan th eprepa ration o f repo rt on R adiativeEffects of T race Gases by mid-I994.Dare and place to he decided.

W orksh op on ozone ch ange andae ro so ls. and t he i r im pact o n clim ate .Hamb urg. G erm an y. Date to hedecided.

W G l IWG2 jo in t con fe rence on (a)stab ilization o f greenh ouse gasconcen tra tio ns and th e implica tion s fo rimpacts. and (b ) region al ch angein fo rmation scena rio s and inputs toimp ac t a ss essme n ts . Date, p lac e an dexact workshop title en he decided.

5

D evelopmen t o f IPCC Guidelinesfor National Inventories of .'ietGreenhouse Gas -Emissions30 : P ilo t tra in ing worksh op on th e dra ftmeth odo logy . B racknell. L KI: W orksh op on T ran spa rency betweenex istin g me th odo logie s, B rackn ell. UK3 01 11 -2 1 1 2: Lar in American re eionalt-raining workshop on inv cncor~\rnethodolozv. S ao P ao lo , Brazil t hosted bvINPEJ ~. .

L6-l8: South ern and Easte rn A fricantra in ing worksh op on inven to rymeth odology . L usaka. Z ambia

ADS R egiona l symposium . B angkok.Th i s will provide feedback on experiencewith the draf t rnethodolozv.bv [h e eizhtcoun trie s invo lved in [h e A D S Re a iona lS tudy on Globa l E nvironmen tal Issues.Date to he decided.Completio n of module o f S impli fi edW o rkb oo k de alin g: with land use anda gr icu ltu ra l b ur nin gFIrst edition of R eference M anua lcompleted (a revision o f th e tullI PCClO EC 0 'Background documentproduced in A ugust (991)Completio n o f module o f S imp li fi edW o rkbo ok dealing with major C H . . ! . sourcecategoriesD ra ft [PCC Guidelin es comple ted and sen tout fo r pee r review


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Second IPCC ScientificAssessment (contd)

Nov/Dec M ee ting o f expe rts to agree de ra iledstructure and con ten t o f 1995 scienceassessmentAgreed structure circula ted w ide ly andc on tr i b u ti on s i n v i ted .

1~94iJan/Feb/Mar Meet ing o f lead auth ors to produce f irstdra ft o f m id-l994 repo rt on R adia tiveEffects o f T ra ce G ases. D raf ts if full'tex t and of 'policyrnaker's summarysta t~men t' th en undergo six w eek pee r

review.AprfMay W G lIWG2 jo in t confe rence on drough ta nd de se r ti fi ca ti o n .Da t e . place and exactworkshop title to he decided.

Lead auth ors o f mid- L 994 'RadiativeE ffects' prepa re f in a l draf t. D ra f ts o ff ull te x t and summarv sta temen t th enunde rgo six week co un try review .

Development of [PCC Guidelinesfor National Inventories of NetGreenhouse Gas Emissions (contd)

Distribution o f approved 'P h ase I tguidel ines

W orksh op on th e P h ase [ Guide lin esfocussing on comparison o f aggrega tedcoun try da ta w ith 'top-down ' estim ates.W orksh op summary sta temen t prepa red andsen t fo r si x w eek review b y participan ts.

R evised w orksh op statem en t sent fo r sixweek coun try review

W G I len a ry to approve summary sta temen ts on R adia tive E ffects of T race G asesand on th e {PCe Ph ase [ Guidelin es fo r n a tio n al n et em issions. Subm itted fo rapprova l by [pee P lena ry la te r in th e same pe riod.JunlJul

A ug/S ep/O ct W orksh ops cove ring all topics o f 1995scien tif ic assessm en t ..Nov/Dec M eeting o f lead auth o rs to pro duce firstdra ft o f full scien tif ic m ateria l (FS M )and o f po l icymaker's summary (PM S)of th e second science assessm en t.1995Jan /Feb P eer review o f first draft o f FS M and o f

PM S (two months)M ar L ead auth o rs produce second dra fts o fFS M and PMS on th e b asis o fcommen ts from pee r review .Mar /Apr /May IPCC coun try review o f second dra ft o fPM S(th re e m on th s)Jun /July L ead A uth o rs comple te fin a l draf t o fFSM

T ex .t o f PM S agreed by W G 1 plenaryA ug/S ep A pprova l o f PM S by IPCe Plena ry .

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APPENDIX C

CONTINUING WORK PROGRAM OF THE IPCCOUTLOOK FOR NEW WORKING GROUP nIt is pro po sed th a t th e con tinuin g wo rk o f th e IPee in th e a rea s o f impacts and respo nse

optio n s be unde rtaken acco rdin g to th e fo llow ing outlin e o r f ramework. T h is o utlin e does no tconta in specific ta sks o r dates f o r c omple ti on , as th ese sh ould be determined b y th e pa rticipa ntsin the first mee tin g o f th e propo sed W orkin g G roup II. I n a dd itio n , certain e lemen ts o f th isco n tin uing wo rk are con tin uing directly f rom tasks unde rtaken as pa rt o f prepa ra tion s o f th e1992 Supplemen t. T hese in clude th e curren t W orkin g G roup II wo rk in deve loping guide lin e sfo r impacts a ssessmen ts an d iden tify ing regio na l and n a tion a l componen ts o f sy stema ticob se rva tio n programs fo r impact a ssessmen ts an d th e curren t W orkin g G roup m wo rk incompilin g an in ven to ry o f tech no logy ch aracte ristics, co nductin g th ema tic studie s on specif icre spo nse o ption s an d syn th esizing th em .

T his o utlin e was deve loped b ased o n discussion s a t th e A ugust 1992 B ureau mee ting , andwas commen ted o n ex ten sive ly by th e curren t W orkin g G roup Ch a irs, V ice -Ch a irs, andSubgroup Co -Ch a irs o f th e curren t W orkin g G roups IInd illfol lowing this mee ting. W h ileno t all view s co uld be fully repre sen ted, th is o utlin e pre sen ts a founda tio n upon wh ich th epart icipants in th e f irst m ee ting o f th e proposed W orking G roup II can build .

T h e new W orkin g G roup II w ill prepa re an in tegra ted glo ba l an d regio na l a ssessmen t o fth e sta te o f kn ow ledge rega rding th e , impacts o f clim a te ch ange and optio n s fo r adaptin g to o rm itiga tin g such clim ate ch an ge to be in clude d in the IP ee 's S econ d A ssessm en t Report (SAR).In developing this assessment , the subgro ups o f th e W orkin g G roup will unde rtake certainspecif ic activitie s, such as th ema tic o r regiona l wo rksh ops, and pro duce certa in products,in cluding inven to rie s o f tech no logie s and meth odo logie s fo r ca rry ing out ana ly ses, th at may beo f spe cif ic use to in dividua l co un tries in eva lua tin g th eir vuln erab ility to clim ate ch an ge an d th eiroption s fo r re sponding to it.

I. INVENTQRY OF IECHNOLOG1'1ffl. TECHNIQUES A N D MEmODSThe W o rking G ro up will prepare an inven to ry o f tech no logie s, tech niques, and m eth ods

to m itiga te o r adapt to clim ate ch an ge . T he in ven to ry will be supported by th em atic studies an danalyses to assist countries in ch o osin g te ch n olo gie s and co mb in atio ns o f te ch n olo gie s. Thi swork sh ould facilita te th e ex peditious and e ff icien t tran sfe r o f tech no lo gies (in th e b ro adestsense) , particularly to d ev elo pin g c ou ntr ie s.W O R l C P L A N

Subgroup A on energy, i nd ustr y, tr an sp o rta tio n , urban issues in cludin g re la ted h um ansettlements , air qua lity and h ea lth , and waste managemen t and dispo sa l to deve lop atech no lo gy ch aracte ristics in ven to ry . The r e will be an appro pria te b a lance o ftech no lo gie s, re ly in g o n, w here appro pria te , th em atic studie s. This ef for t will build one x istin g w o rk .


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S ubgroup B on co asta l zone s, sma ll isla nds, o cean s and marine ecosy stems to prepareinventory o f tech no logies, tech niques and meth ods fo r m itiga ting o r adapting to climatechange in these areas, particula rly fo r th ose re la ted to reducing vulne rab ility to tropica lcyclo n es. sto rm surges, and sea leve l ch ange (th is would include th e inven to ry fo rm eth ods o f co asta l zo ne m an agem en t).Subgroup C on unmanaged resources and te rrestr ia l eco sy stems, in cluding moun ta inregion s, th e cryo sph ere , and h ydro logy , to prepa re inven to ry o f tech no logies, tech niquesand meth ods re la ted to m itiga ting o r adapting to clim ate ch ange in th e se a reas,pa rticula rly th ose fo r reducing vuln e rab ility o f te rrestria l sy stems to clim ate even ts.Subgroup D on drough t, dese rtif ica tio n , wa te r resource managemen t, agriculture ,forestry J and land use to prepa re inven to ry o f tech no logies, tech n iques and methodsre la ted to m itiga tin g o r adapting to climate ch ange in th e se a reas.

,n~ METHODOLOGIESTh e W orking G roup w ill prepare m eth odo lo gie s, fo r use a t n a tio na l, regio na l and glo b a lscales, fo r :A . a ssessing and mon ito rin g impacts o f climate ch ange , in cluding geoph ysica limpacts, eco sy stem impacts, and mon ito ring and data . estim atio n meth ods andpractices; -B. assessing vuln e rab ility to th e impacts o f clima te ch ange and furth er iden tify ing

sensitivi t ies to diffe ren t m agn itudes and ra tes o f climate ch ange , in cludingtempera ture , h ydro logic cycle and sea -leve l ch ange ;c. assessing th e econom ic, socia l and cultura l implica tio n s o f th is vulne rab ility and

p ossib le a ctio n s to reduce greenhouse gas em issio ns and vuln erab ility ; and,D. assessing the results o f actio ns to reduce greenhouse gas em issio n s andVulnerabili ty to the im pa cts o f clim ate ch an ge , e spe cia lly a ctio ns b y in dustr ia lize dcountries relative to pro visio ns o f the climate conven tion , and assessing th e co sts

and benef i ts o f these re ductio ns o n a reas within the W o rking G roup's purview.W O R K P L A N

Subgroup A will d eve lo p me th o do lo g ie s r e la ted to e ne rgy , in dustry , tra nspo rta tio n, urb anissu es? a nd waste m an age me nt a nd dispo sa l.S ubgroup B will deve lop meth odo logies re la ted to co asta l zones, small islands, o cean sand marin e ecosy stems, pa rticula rly vuln e rab ility to ch anges in sea leve l and in th ein ten sity and frequency o f trop ica l cyclon es and sto rm surges.

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th is activity w ill fo cus on updating th e ex isting meth odo logy ;Subgroup C will deve lop meth odologies re la ted to unmanaged resources and terre stria leco systems, in cluding moun ta in sy stems, h ydro logy and th e cryo sph ere , and impacts o fclimate even ts such as sto rms and floods.

'This mayor may n ot in clude m eth o do lo gie s for a sse ssin g ge oph y sica l im pa cts,as th is depends on th e wo rkplan fo r WG I;T h is a ctivity will in clude th e developmen t o f a meth odo logy to assess th econsequences o f reducing CO lon fo re sts, wetlands, and o th er n a tura l sy stems.

Subgroup D will deve lop meth odologie s re la ting to agriculture , fo re stry , land use andw ate r reso urces m an agem en t, particula rly th e im pacts o f dro ugh ts an d desertif ica tio n:

T h i s a cti vi ty will in clude th e deve lo pm en t o f m eth odo lo gies fo r a ssessin g po ten tia lactio ns asso cia ted w ith :

CO l em issio ns fro m fo re sts, agriculture , an d ran gelan ds;CO 2 absorbt ion by sinks, in cludin g fo re sts a nd a griculture ;CH,. f rom an imals; and,CH,. on rice paddie s.

m. WORKSHOpsTh e W orking Group will h old wo rksh ops on issues o f specif ic interest to th e su bgr ou ps,

in cludin g regio nal issue s. In con ductin g th ese w orksh ops, it will liaison with o t he r ! peeW o rkin g G ro ups a nd in te rn atio nal in stitutio ns a nd o rga niza tio ns in o rde r to en sure coo pe ra tio non common o r overlapping wo rk.W O R X P L A N

Subgroup A to hold . in co ope ra tio n w he re a ppro pria te with lEA , IA EA , OEeD ando th ers~ wo rksh ops o n:

e ne rgy a nd in dustry issues such as:en d-use e ne rgy efficien cy ;u rb an ro ad t ranspor tm eth an e em issio n ab atem en t;d istr ict h e atin g/w aste in cin e ra tio n ;

in coopera tion with W HO , W M O , UN EP , and PA HO , th e implica tion s o f climatech ange on h ealth ;vuln erab ility o f urb an se ttle men ts to th e impacts o f climate ch ange ; and,

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o th er sub jects a s de te rm in ed b y th e W orking G roup.S ubgroup B to h o ld, in coope ra tion wh e re appropria te w ith th e UN E P R egio na l S easP rogramme, IO C, and o th ers, wo rksh ops on :

coasta l zone managemen t ex periences; and,o th er sub jects as de te rm in ed by th e W orking G roup.

Subgroup C to h old, in coope ra tion wh ere appropria te w ith FAG, ITIO and others ,wo rksh ops o n :

vuln e rab ility o f regio na l te rrestr ia l eco systems and unmanaged resources toclim ate ch a ng e; and,o th er sub je cts as determined by th e W orking G roup;

Subgroup 0 to h old, in co ope ra tion wh ere appropria te w ith FAG, ITrO, and others ,wo rksh ops on sub jects a s de te rm ined by th e W orking G roup.S ubgroups B , C , and D , in coopera t ion as appropria te w ith Subgroup A and W orkingGroup I, to conduct jo in tly wo rksh ops on a common meth odo lo gy fo r assessing th eimpacts o f clim ate ch ange and th e vuln e rab ility o f n a tura l and managed systems to theseimpacts in order to assist co un trie s, pa rticula rly develo pin g co un tries, in conduct ingvuln erab ility ana ly ses, iden tify ing critica l magn itudes and ra te s o f impacts, andidenti fying critically sensitive systems and areas .

IV 0 G L O B A L A N D R EG IO NA L A SSE SSM EN TSA s its in put to th e SA R , th e W orkin g G roup will prepa re globa l and regiona l a ssessmen ts

o n th e sta te o f kn owledge rega rding vuln e rab ility , adapta tion and mitiga tion , an d progress ineach area covered by sub gro up s, in clu din g deg ree o f in stitu tio n and capacity building indeveloping countries. These assessments will draw on the individual tasks carried out by thesu bgr o up s~ i nc lu di ng the inven to rie s and m eth odo logies, and will re f lect wo rk prio ritie s fo r th e1992-9S t ime f r ame .W O R l C P L A N

E ach sub gro up to prepare its syn th esis repo rt a s input to th e 1995 assessment.

v. WORK IN CQOPERATION W I T H WG I A N D N E W WG mT he W orking G roup will, in coope ra tion with W orking G roup I and th e n ew W orking

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G ro up III:pro vide em issio ns tren ds fro m secto rs a nd a ctivitie s asse ssed by in dividua l sub gro ups a sinput to th e W o rk in g G roup m ta sk o n e missio ns sce na rio s;co opera te w ith W o rking G roup Io n activitie s re la ted to th e ob jective o f th e Framewo rkCo nven tio n on Clim a te Ch an ge , in cluding th e W o rking G ro up I wo rk on th e re la tio n sh ipb etw ee n e missio ns an d a tm osph eric co ncen tra tio ns (th e carbon cycle ) and th e lin kage o freg io na l clim ate ch ange e stima tes w ith th e W o rking G roup IIw ork o n vuln era bilitie s an dsen sitivitie s, e specia lly th o se o f eco sy stem s (a jo in t wo rksh op m igh t b e h e ld in ea rly1994).

G E N E R A L N O T E S1 . In stitutio n and capacity building sh ould b e in tegra ted in to a ll ! p e e w o rk p ro gra m me s

a n d o utp uts.2 . E x istin g wo rk b e ing ca rried out b y curren t ! pee groups and subgroups sh ould

b e iden tif ied and pr io ritized fo r in tegra tio n in to th e wo rkplan . T h e ch a irs o f ex istin g (o ld)W o rk in g G roups IT and III h ave con sulted with th e ch a irs o f ex istin g subgroups and o th e rs toassure full in fo rm a tio n is ava ilab le . '

3 . D eve lopmen t o f m e th odo logies, pa rticula rly fo r impact a ssessmen ts, sh ould becoo rdin a ted and, a s much a s po ssib le , h armon ized acro ss subgroups. Fo r ex ample , th e ex istin gwo rk o f Japan an d th e U .K in deve lo pin g pre lim in ary guide lin es fo r im pacts a ssessm en ts is ve ryuseful in th is rega rd and will be cont inued.

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APPENDIX C (cant.'d)PRELIMINARY ILLUSTRATIVE OUTLINEFOR THE WORKING GROUP II CONTRIBUTION~o THE IPCC 1995 SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT

~iiB G R O lIP A = Energy, industry I t ra ns por tat io n, ur ban is sue s i nc lud in g[sliltQ..__hY!TIgnettlements. ajr quality and health. and wasteEldDggment and d isposa 1Executive SummaryPolicymakers SummaryChapter 1: Introduction

Scope of related hUman activitiesTmpacts of climate change on related human activitiesGHG emissions associated with related human activitiesChapter 2: Energy

Impacts of cl imate change on energy sources (e.g. ,biomass, hydro-electricity, electricity andheating/cooling demandAdaptation for energy sources (e.g., combustionefficiency, fuel substitution, energy cascading, GHGsemission controls such as methane flaring)Chapter 3: Industry

Impacts of climate change on industry activities (e.g.,raw ma~erial and energy availability, costs andcompetitiveness)Adaptation for industry (e.g., efficient use of rawmaterial and energy, material and energy substitution,restructuring relocation)Mitigation for industry (e.g., CFCs phase-out, efficientuse of raw material and energy, material and energysubstitution aerosol emission control, restructuring)Chapter 4: Transportation

Impacts of climate change on transportation (e.g.,availability of infrastructure such as non-frOZen ports,demand increases induced by human migrations)Adaptation for transportation (e.g., improvement ininfrastructure, modal shifts)Mitigation for transportation (e.g., fuel efficiency,increased public transport, modal shifts)

Chapter 5: Urban issues including related human settlements inquality and healthImpacts of cl imate change related to urban issues (e.g. ,air quality, health)Adaptation related urban issues (e.g., urban planning,relocation )Mitigation related urban issues (e.g., districtheating/cooling, CHP, building/housing fuel eff iciency Itrees and vegetation)

Chapter 6: waste management and disposal


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Tmpacts of climate change on waste management and disposal(e.g., GHG emissions, air quality, health)Adaptation in waste management and disposal (e.g. ,relocation methane collection)Hit igat ion in waste management and disposal (e.g. , wasterecycling, methane collection)~hapter 7: Methodologies (may be an attachment)

~iethodologies for impact assessments (e.g. , development0f guidel ines)Methodologies for technology option assessments (e.g.,yuidelines for costs/benefits assessments; full fuel/lifeeye le assessment, embodied carbon treatment, factoranalyses), least cost transportation and utility planning

Chapter 8: Summary and conclusionsGeneral observations on impacts, adaptation and mitigationRegional observations. on impacts, adaptation andmitigation

Attachment: Technology characterisation inventory

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5.~Qgroug 8: Coasta 1 zones, sma11 is lands, oceans and marineco~s.:t.gm3.....t....ha!1ges in sea level, trogica1 cyclones and storm surgesExecutive Summarypolicymakers SummaryChapter 1: Introduction

Short evaluation of present knowledge with regard toclimate change (WG.I);ocean-atmosphere;description of applied scenarios and assumptions;description of the ecological and socia-economic characte-ristics and functions of oceans, coastal zones and smallislands with regard to climate change;research tools; process analyses, palaeo studies.Chapter 2: Abiotic and Ecological Impacts

Changes in physical properties and related primary effectsAbiotic impactsEcological impacts on oceansEcological impacts on coastal zones and small islandsChapter 3: Soc10- economic impacts

Socio-economic impacts on oceanssoc ic - economic impacts on coastal zones and small islandnationsChapter 4~ Methodologies

Vu ln era bil it y a ss es sme ntsEvaluation of ways and means to integrate GCMs withbiological modelling and modelling of human activities.(Chapter 5: critical levels and critical rates vis-a-vis impactsan d a da pt ati ons )(Before 1995 it may not be possible to determine actual criticallevels and critical rates. Through sensitivity analyses and a what-ifapproach however, preliminary indications of critical levels andcritical rates might become available).

Sea Level RiseTemperature ChangeOther Climate Parameters

Documents

8th Session of the IPCC