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86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
86025_3
Fundamental of Energy Systems II
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Systems Constraints: Integration Demand - Supply
Physical:• Matching form value • Matching spatial scales• Matching temporal scales
Societal - Availability of:• Capital• Information • Incentives• Policy attention
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Constraints
• Matching “form value”: need (and limits) of conversion (e.g. radiant→mechanical energy)
• Spatial mismatch supply-demand: World trade in fuels >1000 Billion $ (2003 data);
• Temporal mismatch supply-demand (load curves): Need for storage & interconnection (capital intensive)
• Magnitude mismatch supply-demand: Power densities, e.g. renewables vs. urban energy use
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Constraints I: Space• Fossil fuels: Deposits determined by
nature• Extremely uneven distribution of
reserves: Oil<Coal<Gas• Transport costly:
Electricity<LNG<Gas<Coal<Oil• Inventory (storage) minimization
increases vulnerability (only 90 days oil use in strategic reserves)
• Renewables: Land availability as major spatial constraint
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grublerhttp://www.bp.com/centres/energy2002/gas/trademovement.asp#
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
US – Gas Pipeline Transport Flows
World Oil Trade in 2004(net trade of crude and oil products)
Million Tons Billion US$
USA -590.8 -165.3
Europe -524.0 -147.1
Japan -254.0 -42.0
China -149.7 -40.1
Other importers -862.2 -242.1
Middle East 959.7 269.4
Africa 319.7 89.8
Ex-USSR 314.3 88.2
Latin America 197.7 55.5
Other exporters 589.3 165.4
World Trade 2380.7 668.4
Source: BP Statistical Review of World energy 2005
How Much Do Fuels Costs the World?
• The power of “back-of-the envelope” calculations
• World crude oil trade: 2.6 109 tons*
• 1000 109 $*
• World oil use: 3.8 Gtoe
• World energy use: 10 Gtoe
• World GDP: ~45 1012$*
• Rough (upper) estimate is: ?* 2005 data from BP Stat. Review 2006 and IMF 2006
using (high) oil prices: <10%;using avg. energy costs and long-term average oil prices: 3-5% of GWP
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Constraints II: TimeWhy Electricity Load Curves Matter
• Electricity can’t be stored at reasonable costs; storage of other energy forms also costly
→ Therefore: Electricity must be generated whenever demand arises
→ Therefore: Need enough installed generation capacity to meet peak demand (plus reserve margin), even though system peaks very rarely (few hrs/yr)
• Result: Some plants run only a few hours per year (economics! efficiency!)
• Peak load versus average load: Times 3
• Reserve margin: 10-30% of peak load
• Fractality: Daily, weekly, monthly, yearly load curves
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Cum. Annual Electricity Load Curveakin “load duration curve” (US)
MEDIUM LOAD PLANTS
Pumped hydro, gas turbines
Gas combined cycle, coal
Hydropower (rivers), nuclear, coalPow
er d
eman
d
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Heat Load Curve of an Austrian Hotel with Electricity Cogeneration(“stacked” boilers due to inefficiency of low capacity utilization;
Never design a heating system based on peak load!)
hours per year
x
kWth
electric boiler 50 kWth
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Daily Load Curves: Tokyo
Source: Mogouro et al., 2002
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Linking Space and
Time in Tokyo: Power
Density of Demand
Source: Mouguro et al., 2002
Tokyo – Electricity Demand vs. Solar Energy Supply
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
0 1000 2000 3000
km2
kWh
Solar radiation converted to electricity
Solar radiation
Electricity demand
Source: TEPCO & NIES, 2002
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Spatial Power Densities of Energy Production and Consumption
Photovoltaics
Houses
Photovoltaics
Thermalpowerplants
Oil fieldsCoal fields
High-rises
Supermarkets
Flat plate collectorsIndustry
TidalPhotovoltaics
Wind
Hydro
Photosynthesis
Cities
Centralsolar
towers
Steel mills,refineries
Photosynthesis
Source: Adapted from Smil 1991:243
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Density Example I:
Hambach Lignite Mine Germany
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
INDEN HAMBACH
BERGHEIM
FORTUNAGARSDORF
NuclearResearchCentre
Large ScaleOpencast Brown Coal MiningGermanyNew & West Havenfor scale comparison
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
An IE Perspective on Hambach
• The “1 TW hole”• 3000 billion tons lignite reserves
= 1 BTCE = 1 TWyr = 30 EJ• 8500 ha mined between 1980-2040
(all reclaimed)• Largest man-made machines in the world
(240,000 m3/day bucket wheel excavators)
2004: 40 million tons lignite500 million tons overburden removed600 million tons water pumped
1 ton of lignite (~2 bbls of oil) = 30 tons of material handling
Energy/Carbon Densities: Example II:C sequestered by fuel substitution vs. forest
sinks and sources
Substitution
(bio for fossils)
Source
(deforestation)
Sinks
(afforestation)
Source: Science 317(17 August 20907):902
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Power Densities II
• Spatial mismatch between demand and supply requires imports (domestic+international)
• >80% of world energy use in urban high demand density areas
• Power density mismatch biggest for renewables (except large hydro)
• Hence: Renewables best suited for niche markets: low population/energy density areas (rural),
Europe: Power Density of Demand (W/m2): Grey areas indicate where biomass or wind can satisfy local
energy demand (< 0.5 W/m2)
England:
Energy demand footprint
larger than country area
Orders of Magnitude: 1 W/m2 upper energy yield of biomass/wind ~10 kWh/m2 resulting annual energy yield ~30 MJ/m2
~300 GJ/ha~10,000 liters/ha liquid fuel with 100%
conversion efficiency ~1,000 gal/acre (for the non-metric inclined) ~10 toe/ha tons oil equivalent yield
(max. yield, no losses!) ~3 toe/ha realistic yield incl. conversion losses
US transport energy use: ~600 Mtoe =200 million ha = ~100% of all cropland
World energy use (PE): ~10 Gtoe =3000 million ha = 200% of cropland area,or 75% of forests
The Economics of Land-use Conflicts:Bioenergy and Agricultural Crop Yields
(typical, rounded values)
Crop Yield per ha Producer Price Yield $/haWheat Brazil 2 t 110 $/ton 220
Soybeans Brazil 2.5 t 150 $/ton 380
Rapeseed Germany 3.5 t 170 $/ton 600
Sugarcane Brazil 68 t 10 $/ton 680
Wheat France 7 t 100 $/ton 700
Cotton USA 2 t 420 $/ton 840
Rice China 6 t 140 $/ton 840
Tobacco India 1.5 t 560 $/ton 840
Tobacco USA 2.4 4200 $/ton 10,000
Low yield/price biomass 3 t (10 GJ/t) 3 $/GJ 90
Med. yield/price biomass 10 t (14 GJ/t) 4 $/GJ 560
High yield/price biomass 18 t (18 GJ/t) 6 $/GJ 2,000
Rapeseed EU biodiesel 1300 l 0.6 $/litre 850
Sugarcane Ethanol Brazil 6000 l 0.2 $/litre 1,200
Palmoil Indonesia 6000 l 400-600 $/Klitre 2,400-3,600
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Choice of Energy Systems and Technologies
• Need to satisfy first all energy systems constraints
• Need to satisfy demand for energy services rather than fuels
• Economics not all (invisible costs, convenience, social visibility, etc.)
• Choices available inverse of scale (family home, plant, vs. planet)
• Analysis needs large system boundaries
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Chains and Analysis
For MEMs: LCA
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Chain Analysis:Example of IIASA CO2DB
• Broad coverage (end-use to extraction, ~2000 technologies)
• Comprehensiveness (technological, economic, emissions characteristics)
• Multiple entries (uncertainties, regional differences)
• No single „best guess“ (reflecting dynamicsin time, process variation, heterogeneity)
• Analysis (queries, energy chain analysis)
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
The Cost of Lighting$/k-lumen-yrThe Costs of Lighting($/k-lumen-yr)
3 supply systems:hcppl hard coal power plantngcc gas combined cyclengccr gas CC w. CO2recovery2 end-use tech’sic incadescent light bulbscl compact flourescent lb
Fuels
Conversion
End use
T&D
Cross-cutting
12
34 55
6
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
CO2 Emissions of Lighting(kg C/k-lumen-yr)
2
43
6 15
Cheapest and 2nd cheapestchains
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Chain & LCA Analysis
+ Easy comparison at investment margin+ Analytical simplicity+ Data sharing+ Good for project-specific analysis
(GEF „additionality)+ Imports can be considered
- Representativeness of examples under proliferation of combinations (xn!)
- Largely static analysis (what‘s the investment „margin“?)
- Reconciliation of multiple criteria(costs, emissions)
- System aspects: Diffusion potentials and constraints (capital, vintage structure, environment, relative shares of various chains)
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
I-O: Input-Output Analysis
• Basically a matrix of monetary flows across sectors of an economy
• Info: one unit of output of sector i needs how much ($) inputs from other sectors (j..n)
• Based on detailed (but lagged) nationally reconciled sectorial statistics
• Complemented by physical flows(e.g. energy, CO2 emissions)
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
US- Energy per $ Value Added (TJ per Million $, energy embodiment, 1992 I-O data)
Source: Carnegie Mellon Univ. www.eiolca.net
Product On-site Energy Transport Other Totalsupply sectors
fertilizer 130.4 7.6 3.2 6.6 147.8passenger cars 1.2 3.7 1.4 6.4 12.6hotels 2.9 5.4 0.5 1.9 10.7semiconductors 0.9 3.3 0.5 2.7 7.4real estate agents 0.8 2.4 0.3 1.2 4.7computer&data services 0.2 1.2 0.3 1.1 3.0
Direct energy Indirect energy
Note product and value orientation:Energy embodied in car vs. total energy use over lifetime of carEnergy $ per VA $: industry vs. services (energy price differences)
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
I-O Tables for Energy and Environmental Analysis
+ Comprehensive national accounting
+ Widely available (mostly in OECD however)+ Basically only data source for “indirect” energy and
“rucksack” environmental impacts (=things happening outside the sector of consideration but linked to it)
+ Possibility to combine with physical I-O info
- Static and often delayed (-5 to -10 yrs) snapshot- Average sectorial picture (difference to marginal
investments)- Little end-use (consumption) detail- Constrained by national border systems boundary
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
B-U Engineering Modeling
• Representation of conversion technologies linking I-O
• Simulation or optimization (LP) based
• Dynamic (back-and forecasting)
• LPs: Clear, simple decision rule: (discounted) cost minimization under constraints
• Trade explicitly considered
• Data rich
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
Energy Flows in MESSAGE Model
1990 -- 2020
86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler
B-U Engineering Models
+ technology detail
+ multi-criteria analysis+ environmental constraints explicitly considered+ dynamic, systems view
- Extremely data intensive- Decision rule simplistic
(global cost minimization)- Consumer choices poorly modeled
(“rational choice” assumed)- Linkage to other sectors: only captured if coupled
with macro-economic models (complex)