Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
91
6. Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
This chapter presents the results of model evaluation of lead atmospheric input to the Baltic Sea
and its sub-basins in 2015. Modelling of lead atmospheric transport and deposition was carried
out using MSC-E Eulerian Heavy Metal transport model MSCE-HM (Travnikov and Ilyin, 2005).
Latest available official information on lead emission from EMEP countries, including all
HELCOM countries, for 2015 was used in model simulations. Based on these data annual and
monthly levels of lead deposition to the Baltic Sea region have been obtained and contributions
of HELCOM countries emissions to the deposition over the Baltic Sea are estimated. Model
results were compared with observed levels of lead concentrations in air and precipitation
measured at monitoring sites around the Baltic Sea in 2015.
6.1 Lead emissions
Figure 6.1. Annual anthropogenic emissions of lead in the Baltic Sea region for 2015, kg/km2/y.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
92
Figure 6.2. Annual lead emission from Public
Power sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color
means no information).
Figure 6.3. Annual lead emission from Industry
sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color means no
information).
Figure 6.4. Annual lead emission from Other
Stationary Combustion sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y
(white color means no information).
Figure 6.5. Annual lead emission from Fugitive
Emissions sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color
means no information).
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
93
Figure 6.6. Annual lead emission from Solvents
sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color means no
information).
Figure 6.7. Annual lead emission from Road
Transport sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color
means no information).
Figure 6.8. Annual lead emission from Shipping
Emissions sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color
means no information).
Figure 6.9. Annual lead emission from Aviation
sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color means no
information).
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
94
Figure 6.10. Annual lead emission from Off Road
sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color means no
information).
Figure 6.11. Annual lead emission from Waste
sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y (white color means no
information).
Figure 6.12. Annual lead emission from
Agricultural Other sector for 2015, t/grid cell/y
(white color means no information).
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
95
Table 6.1. Annual anthropogenic lead emissions of HELCOM countries from different sectors for 2015,
tonnes/year
GNFR
emission
sector
Sector name Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia1 Sweden
A Public Power 0.330 26.138 1.501 10.156 0.254 0.694 27.261 179.5 1.923
B Industry 1.705 0.821 10.741 68.141 0.479 0.485 328.017 17.913 3.811
C
Other
Stationary
Combustion
1.292 0.553 0.935 5.963 0.924 1.049 137.599 0.6 0.767
D Fugitive
Emissions 0.008 7.3E-05 0.023 NA 4.3E-05 2.154 0.02
E Solvents 0.086 0.288 1.7E-07 38.416 0.106 0.476 2.0E-06 0.0002
F Road
Transport 5.490 0.277 0.701 92.154 1.431 1.361 11.711 2.574
G Shipping
emissions 0.017 0.010 0.064 0.0006 2.6E-07 0.010
H Aviation 0.669 NA NA 5.243 NE NE NA 0.233
I Off Road 0.100 0.025 0.004 0.208 0.040 0.003 0.0003 0.016
J Waste 1.939 0.331 0.007 1.1E-05 0.001 0.021 1.106 0.130 0.023
L Agricultural
Other 0.038 0.002 0.0003 NA NA
M Other NO NO NO NA NA NO NA 13.045 0.798
Total 11.673 28.433 13.926 220.345 3.235 4.090 507.849 211.208 10.155
NO – not occurring, an activity or process does not exist within a country.
NA – not applicable, the process or activity exists but emissions are considered never to occur.
NE – not estimated, emissions occur but have not been estimated or reported in this submission. 1 – Lead emission from Public Power sector (A) for 2015 was estimated by CEIP, emissions for other sectors were
officially reported by Russia.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
96
Pb emission, Denmark
F
46%
J
17%
B
15%
C
11%
H
6%
Other
5%
Pb emission, Estonia
A
92%
B
3%
C
2%
J
1%
E
1%Other
1%
Figure 6.13. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Denmark in 2015.
Figure 6.14. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Estonia in 2015.
Pb emission, Finland
B
77%
A
11%
C
7%
F
5%
D
0.2% Other
0.2%
Pb emission, Germany
F
41%
B
31%
E
17%
A
5%
C
3%
Other
2%
Figure 6.15. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Finland in 2015.
Figure 6.16. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Germany in 2015.
Pb emission, Latvia
F
44%
C
29%
B
15%
A
8%
E
3%
Other
1%
Pb emission, Lithuania
F
32%
C
25%A
17%
B
12%
E
12%
Other
1%
Figure 6.17. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Latvia in 2015.
Figure 6.18. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Lithuania in 2015.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
97
Pb emission, Poland
B
66%C
27%
A
5%
F
2%
D
0.4%
Other
0.2%
Pb emission, Russia
A
86%
B
8%
M
6%
C
0.3%
J
0.06%Other
0.01%
Figure 6.19. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Poland in 2015.
Figure 6.20. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Russia in 2015.
Pb emission, Sweden
B
37%
F
25%
A
19%
M
8%
C
8%
Other
3%
Figure 6.21. Contributions of different sector to
annual lead emissions of Sweden in 2015.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
98
Denmark Estonia
Finland Germany
Figure 6.22. Fractions of annual anthropogenic lead emissions of HELCOM Parties deposited to the
Baltic Sea in 2015 (expressed as a percent of national anthropogenic emission deposited to the particular
grid cells).
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
99
Latvia Lithuania
Poland Russia
Figure 6.22. (cont.) Fractions of annual anthropogenic lead emissions of HELCOM Parties deposited to
the Baltic Sea in 2015 (expressed as a percent of national anthropogenic emission deposited to the
particular grid cells).
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
100
Sweden
Figure 6.22. (cont.) Fractions of annual anthropogenic lead emissions of HELCOM Parties deposited to
the Baltic Sea in 2015 (expressed as a percent of national anthropogenic emission deposited to the
particular grid cells).
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
101
Table 6.2. Annual anthropogenic lead emissions of HELCOM countries and other EMEP countries in
period 1990-2015, tonnes/year (Expert estimates of emissions are shaded, (Tista et al., 2017a))
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
DK 128 107 98 58 26 26 24 23 25 31 19 19 18 EE 206 189 125 103 123 86 67 47 40 40 37 37 36 FI 321 236 165 98 67 66 45 28 32 24 44 45 45 DE 2250 1473 1147 965 779 712 576 448 402 395 403 367 349 LV 262 194 150 163.4 168 144 147 191 188 152 156 158 159 LT 150 170 89 81 67 92 100 100 184 8.8 7.3 7.1 7.0 PL 586 590 588 612 590 590 610 587 519 504 470 455 468 RU 3591 3553 3095 3276 2643 2426 2304 2247 2262 2339 2352 2235 2118 SE 353 309 288 138 46 32 28 28 27 25 22 20 17 AL 62 63 62 67 72 67 68 70 74 68 76 85 93 AM 11 0.820 0.610 0.790 0.340 0.334 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.005 0.005 0.503 1.0 AT 215 176 122 85 59 16 16 14 13 12 12 12 12 AZ 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.069 0.068 0.065 0.049 0.052 0.066 0.196 BY 794 519 450 377 348 147 46 42 41 38 46 41 44 BE 254 231 235 202 157 187 195 209 135 147 107 83 84 BA 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 91 85 BG 321 189 213 283 284 323 324 248 290 279 256 239 198 HR 539 384 304 292 320 329 275 277 281 285 277 242 152 CY 43 43 48 48 50 50 50 50 49 49 49 47 46 CZ 269 240 247 232 202 180 165 180 169 157 95 42 41 FR 4296 2889 2108 1853 1652 1478 1309 1160 1042 805 282 250 243 GE 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 GR 505 499 493 488 482 476 470 386 301 217 132 120 108 HU 644 563 494 222 209 195 181 170 161 157 23 24 23 IS 0.222 0.224 0.226 0.652 0.651 0.755 0.929 0.943 0.989 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.960 IE 124 112 117 102 89 78 67 70 48 30 19 18 17 IT 4344 3313 2489 2305 2127 2037 1928 1748 1618 1450 957 718 252 KZ 4736 4323 3909 3496 3082 2669 2255 1841 1428 1014 601 602 604 KY 379 348 316 284 252 220 188 157 125 93 61 56 51 LI 0.648 0.564 0.478 0.379 0.313 0.238 0.183 0.146 0.100 0.061 0.022 0.021 0.022 LU 44 37 38 34 28 19 17 12 8.3 3.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 MT 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.741 0.727 MC 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.0 0.726 0.620 0.493 0.428 0.366 0.010 0.010 0.010 ME 309 443 329 182 129 141 237 203 222 221 142 107 60 NL 332 277 235 209 180 153 104 55 43 35 27 32 36 NO 187 144 128 88 25 24 12 11 12 10 8.7 7.9 8.0 PT 572 629 706 749 767 786 321 323 334 338 37 36 38 MD 15 11 7.7 7.2 6.7 5.9 6.1 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.9 8.9 5.1 RO 585 573 561 550 538 526 514 502 491 420 402 476 375 RUA 1850 1830 1594 1688 1362 1250 1187 1158 1165 1205 1212 1151 1091 RS 367 341 299 190 288 283 284 298 304 268 194 200 189 SK 74 76 79 72 67 62 69 69 61 51 51 54 53 SI 600 522 502 501 494 388 257 152 134 128 130 122 107 ES 2760 1850 1235 1126 1114 953 942 879 812 752 599 368 235 CH 376 348 319 263 231 168 144 130 89 53 31 29 25 TJ 645 603 561 519 477 435 433 430 427 425 422 350 279 MK 109 87 97 91 88 96 96 100 102 98 100 96 104 TR 765 765 765 765 765 765 765 765 765 765 765 717 669 TM 394 369 343 318 292 266 265 263 262 260 258 214 171 UA 3878 3586 3293 3001 2709 2417 2124 1832 1540 1248 955 663 145 GB 2892 2638 2416 2142 1842 1535 1301 1139 836 483 155 147 135 UZ 1870 1748 1627 1627 1384 1263 1255 1248 1240 1232 1225 1017 809
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
102
Table 6.2 (continued). Annual anthropogenic lead emissions of HELCOM countries and other EMEP
countries in period 1990-2015, tonnes/year (Expert estimates of emissions are shaded, (Tista et al.,
2017a)) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
DK 19 21 17 16 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 12 EE 38 37 36 32 40 35 28 39 38 34 39 37 28 FI 38 28 22 25 22 20 18 23 21 19 18 17 14 DE 327 316 286 274 256 225 202 220 221 212 208 214 220 LV 171 174 170 171 172 164 136 164 3.9 5.5 3.7 3.2 3.2 LT 7.0 7.1 4.4 3.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.1 PL 497 508 492 528 523 516 477 528 513 528 511 514 508 RU 2207 330 355 355 296 237 178 184 189 195 200 206 211 SE 17 17 14 14 15 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 AL 80 110 60 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 AM 2.5 2.8 3.0 4.1 8.9 11 9.2 5.6 6.9 31 12 5.9 5.9 AT 13 13 13 14 14 15 13 15 15 15 16 15 15 AZ 0.306 0.463 1.4 1.6 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.4 2.9 3.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 BY 43 45 50 57 59 63 66 70 69 68 63 58 53 BE 81 90 74 73 62 72 30 40 29 29 26 24 30 BA 79 72 66 60 54 48 42 36 36 36 36 36 36 BG 238 142 126 127 118 187 84 70 75 75 76 86 81 HR 66 59 53 8.5 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.1 CY 46 34 29 29 30 31 30 31 30 27 24 24 24 CZ 41 38 38 39 40 32 25 25 22 21 22 23 20 FR 192 177 172 167 163 150 124 135 130 124 121 118 111 GE 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.354 0.365 0.377 0.404 0.447 0.488 2.1 2.5 2.6 GR 95 83 71 58 46 34 21 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 HU 23 22 10.0 9.5 8.8 11 8.8 8.4 9.2 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.6 IS 1.3 2.3 2.2 2.8 3.8 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 IE 17 17 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 14 13 13 IT 259 271 284 293 318 309 235 266 263 266 257 260 255 KZ 605 607 608 609 611 612 614 687 689 690 692 693 694 KY 46 42 37 32 27 22 17 12 12 12 12 12 12 LI 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.022 0.687 0.024 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.022 0.022 LU 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 MT 0.788 0.763 0.798 0.807 0.829 0.735 0.735 3.4 5.8 13 8.6 4.2 0.659 MC 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.012 ME 63 63 48 46 52 47 45 46 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 NL 32 34 30 30 36 30 31 38 22 16 14 9.0 8.6 NO 8.2 8.6 7.4 7.2 7.8 6.9 4.8 4.9 5.4 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.6 PT 36 37 38 38 39 38 36 35 35 36 36 36 36 MD 8.5 9.4 10.0 7.1 9.5 8.9 4.9 3.2 4.0 4.1 3.0 3.8 3.8 RO 274 173 72 72 71 61 37 42 42 39 36 37 39 RUA 1137 170 183 183 153 122 92 95 97 100 103 106 109 RS 233 245 232 222 208 193 163 104 47 22 22 24 38 SK 54 57 59 57 51 50 37 50 51 48 42 50 53 SI 122 129 129 142 10 11 9.3 9.7 9.5 8.6 8.4 7.8 7.8 ES 232 225 233 231 229 226 201 208 206 204 189 203 210 CH 23 22 20 19 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 15 15 TJ 207 135 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 MK 95 26 23 8.2 8.9 6.2 5.6 6.2 6.9 5.4 4.1 4.8 4.6 TR 620 572 524 476 428 380 332 284 293 303 313 323 333 TM 127 83 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 UA 123 195 304 297 309 213 171 159 159 159 100 88 84 GB 120 120 109 91 83 76 64 64 63 66 63 69 65 UZ 601 393 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
103
0
3000
6000
9000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Years
Em
iss
ion
, t/
y
Figure 6.23. Time-series of annual lead emissions of HELCOM countries in 1990-2015, tonnes/year.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
104
6.2 Annual total deposition of lead
Figure 6.24. Annual total deposition fluxes of lead over the Baltic Sea region for 2015, kg/km2/y.
6.3 Monthly total deposition of lead
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
De
po
sit
ion
, to
nn
es
/mo
nth
Figure 6.25. Monthly total deposition of lead to the Baltic Sea for 2012 and 2015, tonnes/month.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
105
Table 6.3. Monthly total deposition of lead to the Baltic Sea for 2012 and 2015, tonnes/month.
Month Pb deposition, 2015
Jan 14.6
Feb 19.3
Mar 22.5
Apr 8.2
May 14.4
Jun 6.4
Jul 8.0
Aug 7.6
Sep 13.9
Oct 8.2
Nov 10.9
Dec 16.6
6.4 Source allocation of lead deposition
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
PL DE EE DK FR GB SE FI BE BY
Pb
dep
osit
ion
, to
nn
es/y
ear
.
Figure 6.26. Top ten countries with the highest contribution to annual total deposition of lead to the Baltic
Sea for 2015, tonnes/year. Green bars indicate non-HELCOM countries.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
106
25
(17%)
10
(7%)
2.4
(2%) 1.9
(1.2%)1.4
(1%)
1.3
(0.9%)0.7
(0.5%)0.4
(0.2%)
0.3
(0.2%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
PL DE EE DK SE FI RU LV LT
Pb
dep
osit
ion
, to
nn
es/y
ear
Figure 6.27. Sorted contributions (in tonnes/year and in %) of HELCOM countries to total deposition to
the Baltic Sea for 2015.
HELCOM countries emissions of lead contributed about 29% to the total annual lead deposition
over the Baltic Sea. Contribution of other EMEP countries accounted for 7%. Significant
contribution was made by other emission sources, in particular, non-EMEP emissions sources,
natural emissions, and wind re-suspension of lead (64%).
Table 6.4. Two most significant contributors to annual total deposition of lead to the nine Baltic Sea sub-
basins for 2015.
Sub-basin Country(1) % Country(2) % *, %
ARC PL 13 DE 5 65
BOB SE 10 PL 8 61
BOS PL 12 DE 5 65
BAP PL 20 DE 7 63
GUF EE 18 PL 9 59
GUR PL 18 DE 4 65
KAT PL 11 DE 8 67
SOU PL 12 DE 9 64
WEB DE 13 PL 12 63
BAS PL 17 DE 7 63
* - contribution of non-EMEP emissions sources, natural emissions, and wind re-suspension.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
107
6.5 Comparison of model results with measurements
DE9 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.28. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Zingst (DE9). Units: ng / m3.
DK8 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.29. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Anholt (DK8). Units: ng / m3.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
108
DK12 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.30. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Risoe (DK12). Units: ng / m3.
FI37 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.31. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Ähtäri II (FI37). Units: ng / m3.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
109
FI18 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.32. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Virolahti III (FI18). Units: ng / m3.
LV10 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.33. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Rucava (LV10). Units: ng / m3.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
110
PL5 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.34. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Diabla Gora (PL5). Units: ng / m3.
SE5 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.35. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Bredkälen (SE5). Units: ng / m3.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
111
SE11 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.36. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Vavihill (SE11). Units: ng / m3.
SE12 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.37. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Aspvreten (SE12). Units: ng / m3.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
112
SE14 Pb air concentrations, ng/m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.38. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in air for 2015 with
measurements of the station Räo (SE14). Units: ng / m3.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
113
DE9 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.39. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Zingst (DE9). Units: mg / L.
DK8 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.40. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Anholt (DK8). Units: mg / L.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
114
DK12 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.41. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Risoe (DK12). Units: mg / L.
DK22 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.42. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Storebaelt (DK22). Units: mg / L.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
115
EE9 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.43. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Lahemaa (EE9). Units: mg / L.
EE11 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.44. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Vilsandi (EE11). Units: mg / L.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
116
FI18 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.45. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Virolahty III (FI18). Units: mg / L.
FI53 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.46. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Hailuoto (FI53). Units: mg / L.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
117
LV10 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.47. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Rucava (LV10). Units: mg / L.
PL5 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.48. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Diable Gora (PL5). Units: mg / L.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
118
PL4 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.49. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Leba (PL4). Units: mg / L.
SE5 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.50. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Bredkälen (SE5). Units: mg / L.
Atmospheric Supply of Lead to the Baltic Sea in 2015
119
SE11 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.51. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Vavihill (SE11). Units: mg / L.
SE14 Pb concentration in precipitation, mg/L
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Obs Mod
Figure 6.52. Comparison of calculated mean monthly lead concentrations in precipitation for 2015 with
measurements of the station Räo (SE14). Units: mg / L.
Annual mean calculated concentrations of lead in air and in precipitation in general reproduce the
corresponding levels observed at stations in the Baltic region. The deviations between modelled
and observed levels lie within a factor of two for majority of stations. Larger discrepancy is noted
for stations FI37, SE5, SE11 (air concentrations) and FI53 (concentrations in precipitation).
Among the reasons leading to these deviations it is possible to mention uncertainties of
anthropogenic emissions (total values, spatial distribution, and seasonal changes), secondary
emissions and model parameterizations.
EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM
120
6.6 Concluding remarks
Emissions of lead from HELCOM countries have decreased 8 times during the period
1990-2015. From 2014 to 2015 level of lead emissions did not change significantly.
Annual deposition of lead to the Baltic Sea has dropped by 80% from 1990 to 2015. Lead
deposition in 2015 was 33% lower comparing to 2014.
The contribution of anthropogenic sources of HELCOM countries to total lead deposition
over the Baltic Sea was estimated to 29%, whereas the other EMEP countries contributed
about 7%. Substantial contribution was made up by natural sources and wind re-
suspension (64%).
The most significant contributions among the HELCOM countries to lead deposition over
the Baltic Sea in 2015 were made by Poland (17%) and by Germany (7%).
Modelling results for cadmium were generally in reasonable agreement with
measurements made around the Baltic Sea in 2015. In most of cases deviations of
modelled and observed concentrations did not exceed a factor of two.
