Multiple Timeframe Trend Alignment

Short Crude Oil

Big Picture

• Crude Oil is currently in a volatility contraction phase

• Daily 14 day ATR is below its weighted 250 day average

• ADX is above 25 which implies environment is slightly trending ,price action based on my indicators suggest a positive outlook for crude oil

• Price seems to have made a false breakout from the monthly pivot at approx $104

• Price is trading between previous week range of $104-101

Intraday Fundamentals

• After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week ended February 28, compared to expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

• Wednesday’s government report was expected to show that crude oil stockpiles rose by 1.3 million barrels last week.

• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days, while the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

• Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that there was "no need yet" for Russia to exercise its authority, adding that any force used would be a last resort.

Technical Analysis

• Price below $103.62 indicates weakness in the market

• Price above $103.62 but below $104.17 would indicate a neutral bias

• Price above $104.17 would be positive

• Since hourly prices are below the indicators we would look for short triggers

Trade Management

• I offered at $103.00/03/05/06/08/ with a stop at $103.17

• I started bidding at $102.90/95/98 to lighten up on the scalps

• I kept a core position with a trailing stop at $102.94(which was hit)

Intuition

• NO

Review

• I did a good job of adding to my positions responsibly with a clear defined risk limits

• I entered additional positions on “LOD”

• I tightened my trailing after I noticed a held bid at $102.87

• I chose to execute the trade on 1 min timeframe instead of 5 min timeframe as I wanted to manage my risk actively for above average position size

• Positives – Added to a winning position / managed risk responsibly

• Negatives – hitting out of the market aggressively when I should have provided liquidity

• I should next time keep a 5 min intraday swing trade core along with this executed trade

• I am satisfied that I followed my process instead of emotions

• I CAN IMPROVE EVERYDAY