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GRUPPO TELECOM ITALIA

5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators

Pisa , June 19th 2017

Technology Innovation - Technological Scouting, Trend Analysis & Future CenterGabriele Elia [email protected] @EliaGabriele

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Key Issues

• Il contesto competitivo

• La tecnologia: radio e core

• Radio: nuove frequenze più banda, MU MIMO, small cell, vRAN/Cloud Ran

• Core: Fibra, NFV e SDN, AI

• I terminali; ne parliamo a fine 2019? https://www.cnet.com/news/5g-network-wireless-phones-qualcomm-2019-are-coming-earlier-than-you-thought/

• La timeline dello standard, commerciale , frequenze

• Prima lo standard o prima i vertical? Un tentativo del 5G

• I trial nel mondo: USA, Asia ed EU e Italia

• I trial in Italia

• Alcune best practice: Bristol, Surrey…

• I player industriali: una gara a 4

• Impatto della connettività diffusa, del superamento di numero in oggetti non phones, con la complicazione del SW

• Softwarizzazione della rete: un Network OS e Anything As A Service?

• Google? Microsoft? Huawei?


Gabriele Elia

https://www.cnet.com/news/5g-network-wireless-phones-qualcomm-2019-are-coming-earlier-than-you-thought/

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The Context: Network Traffic Growth, The Explosion of Video, Disruptions by Digitalization, IoT, Big Data, AI

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Data Traffic Growth, WW, 70% YoY

Source: Ericsson MobilityReport


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Italy is similar … 2021 vs 2016 signs a x3 in Internet Traffic

Source: Cisco VNI5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators

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Video will be most part of Internet traffic: 80% at 2020

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/digital-scoreboard

Quasi l’80% del traffico Internet al 2020 nel mondo sarà Video

Il traffico video crescerà di 4 volte tra 2015 e 2020, (CAGR di oltre il 30%)


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Distruption from Digitalization … eg Advertising: Internet overtakes TV !!


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And in Italy too ... Facebook and Google adv business

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"Internet" FB e Google TV Carta

"Internet"

FB e Google

TV

Carta

Italia 2017, «stime»

Internet 2.5Mdi€,

di cui FB+Google: 2 Mdi €!

TV: quasi 4Mdi €, stabile

Carta: 1 Md €

http://www.nielsen.com/it/it/press-room/2017/the-advertising-market-in-italy-in-2016.html

http://www.engage.it/eventi/advertising-online-un-mercato-da-236-miliardi-nel-2016-in-crescita-del-9/90759#XMtcPRr1OrR2KbEv.97

http://www.nielsen.com/it/it/press-room/2017/the-advertising-market-in-italy-in-2016.html

http://www.engage.it/eventi/advertising-online-un-mercato-da-236-miliardi-nel-2016-in-crescita-del-9/90759#XMtcPRr1OrR2KbEv.97

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IoT “Every object will be connected”

Over 20 Billions will be the installed base ofconnected devices in 2020 (GSMA)

CISCO VNI http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/mobile-white-paper-c11-520862.html#MeasuringMobileIoTGSMA http://www.gsma.com/globalmobiletrends

M2M connections will grow from 780 Mlnin 2016 to 3.3 Bln by 2021 globally (CISCOVNI)


Gabriele Elia

http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/mobile-white-paper-c11-520862.html#MeasuringMobileIoT

http://www.gsma.com/globalmobiletrends/

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Big Data, AI, ML

https://whatsthebigdata.com/2016/10/17/visually-linking-ai-machine-learning-deep-learning-big-data-and-data-science/https://www.capgemini-consulting.com/resource-file-access/resource/pdf/dti-ai-report.pdf


Gabriele Elia

https://whatsthebigdata.com/2016/10/17/visually-linking-ai-machine-learning-deep-learning-big-data-and-data-science/

https://www.capgemini-consulting.com/resource-file-access/resource/pdf/dti-ai-report.pdf

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5G, the next wave of communication technology


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5G The Next Wave of Communication Technology


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5G as a GPT - General Purpose Technology

• il 5G tra le cosiddette GPT (General Purpose Technologies) [*], alla pari di tecnologie che hanno condizionato lo

sviluppo economico worldwide (la stampa, le ferrovie, l’elettricità, Internet).

• Uno studio IHS (**) in collaborazione con Università americane prevede un contributo medio dell’ordine di 200 B$

all’anno alla crescita globale dell’economia nel periodo 2020-2035, pari a circa lo 0,2% della crescita annuale del PIL.

• Il valore cumulato è paragonabile al valore attuale del PIL della settima potenza industriale attuale (India).

• Ancora più impressionanti, nello studio citato, i dati sui volumi complessivi di transazioni economiche (global sales

activities) che si presume, nel 2035, saranno associate a tecnologie 5G, e pari a circa 12300 B$ (circa il 4% delle

transazioni economiche mondiali previste), distribuite in tutti i settori merceologici.

(*) https://ec.europa.eu/digital-singlemarket/en/news/5g-deploymentcould-bring-millions-jobs-andbillions-euros-benefits-study-finds

(**) Da “5GH Economy Impact” online https://www.qualcomm.com/media/documents/files/ihs-5geconomic-impact-study.pdf


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Started 2013 …

5G : Performance target IMT-2020 – Raccomandation ITU-R M.2083-0


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5G: usage scenarios and vertical industries

ENHANCED MOBILE BROADBAND

MASSIVE MACHINE TYPE COMMUNICATION

ULTRA RELIABLE AND LOW LATENCYCOMMUNICATIONS

Home Access

AR/VR

Smart Drive

3D Video, 4K, 8K screens

Digital Life

Work and playin Cloud

Industry 4.0

Mission Critical,Public Safety

Self Driving Car

Smart Home/Building

Smart City


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TIM Today: Pretty Good Anyway … 1 Gbps and 10 msec Latency ….

Quality & Security only on app level Devices per km2

1,000s with NB IoT

Battery Lifeyears

Small Cell100s

Latency10s of ms

Frequency<55 MHz medium low bands

Multimedia & Speed100s of MbpsSD/HD video


Gabriele Elia

https://www.google.it/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj1pemno4DTAhXFCJoKHRbdC-sQjRwIBw&url=https://www.brandsoftheworld.com/logo/lte&psig=AFQjCNFipqITfiYiWNXzPFCYyAKivorBbg&ust=1491033642946536

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5G … the next step

… la miglior sintesi tecnologicaLa miglior sintesi tecnologica

Network SlicingDifferentiated services

Device per km2 Milions

Batteriesdurations

10 years and more

Cells1000’s Small Cells

Latenza1/10 LTE, few ms

Multimedia and Speed10x LTE

UHD, 8K, Immersive Video, Cloud Computing

Frequencies100’s MHz,

New Radio, mmWave

High Quality and SecurityNetwork based

Relay DevicesAlways maximum coverage


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Fast means FAST!!!On Sunday, telecom operator etisalatannounced its fastest 5G live trial reaching 71Gbps, setting a global record in the industry.

the live trial of a remarkable download speed of over 70Gbps achieved over a 'pre-commercial' 5G site, operating over e-band using 2Ghz of bandwidth.

Oltre 30 Bits per Hertz

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/technology/etisalat-records-worlds-fastest-live-trial-of-5g


Gabriele Elia

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/technology/etisalat-records-worlds-fastest-live-trial-of-5g

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How to get there?

• NR (New Radio)

• Nuove frequenze

• Efficienza spettrale aumentata

• MIMO e Beam Forming

• Advanced Small Cell, Cell Border Management

• Core Network

• Flat network, MultiRat

• Mobile SDN


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5G: Frequenze

… la miglior sintesi tecnologica

Larghezza di banda

Dimensione della cella

Frequenze

Servizi

W per il 5G5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators

Gabriele Elia(*) http://www.corrierecomunicazioni.it/digital/48961_frequenze-5g-in-bilancio-25-mld-dall-asta-ma-e-giallo-sui-costi.htm

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5G NR: Antenne Attive

Elevation (Vertical)Beamforming

Azimuth (Horizontal)Beamforming

AzimuthBeamforming

ElevationBeamforming

FD-MIMOeNB

• Multi User• Full Dimensional/3D• Massive MIMO

Tecniche di beamforming

• Alte frequenze radio• Elevate larghezze di banda

Onde millimetriche (mmWaves)

• Antenna a schiera concentinaia di elementi radiantie sistemi attivi

• Crescono• Capacità• Efficienza spettrale

Sistemi Smart Antenna


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5G NR e Core: Cloud/Virtual RAN

Cloud/Virtual-RAN

Base Station

Virtual Base Station Cluster

Oggi Domani

Centralizzare

Coordinare

Virtualizzare


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5G NR e Core: Network Slicing come una delle tecnologia più innovative

… la miglior sintesi tecnologica

Slice come aggregato di funzioni di rete

Selezione dinamica delle slice per ciascuna componente di traffico

Accesso contamporaneo a più slice (orchestrazione)

Sicurezzanativa dedicata


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Network Slicing: andare oltre il modello Internet?

SLICE 2

(Reliability)

SLICE 1

(Latency)28 © 2017 Nokia

SLICE 3

(Throughput)

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http://www.3gpp.org/images/articleimages/ongoing_releases_900px.JPG

http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2020/Documents/S02-1_3GPP%20IMT-2020.pdf

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Seems small but … 500 milions 5G Devices Worldwide in 2022

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Trials around the world

CMCC

DoCoMo

KT

Europe

Italia

USA

3.6GHz, trials 2017

Commercialization plans (tentative)

28GHz USA 2017+28GHz Korea 2018+3.5GHz Europe 2019+3.5GHz China 20204.5GHz Japan 2020

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The path to 5G: projects and trial for Torino 5G; San Marino; MISE–5G IA Bari/Matera

Public safetySecurity enhancements to support citizen and assist police, using wearable cam, sensors, drones.

eTourismVirtual Reality City Tour with guides, multimedia info point with real time and HD infotainment contents

Smart City Environment monitoring and city sensors data collection in a Smart City Control Room

Traffic manag. Sensors and applications to intelligently manage in/out traffic and parking lots

eHealth Remote monitoring and remote assistance of patients

Smart retail Vertical solution for fashion brands (i.e. Internet of Products)

SAN MARINO

Matera

Bari

• Frequency: 43 band(3.7-3.8 GHz

• Collaboration: TIM, Fastweb, Huawei• More than 50 ecosystem partners on the territory• Timeframe: 2017-2020

A PARTNERSHIP APPROACH

• Full 5G coverage for the two cities by 2019 to test the new technology based on local needs• smart city, public safety, enviromental monitoring, industry 4.0, ehealth , media education and virtual

reality, automotive, street safety; logistic (Bari port) and culture (Matera)• Bari will be one of the first 4.0 ports in Italy, allowing better management of logistics and transport• In Matera, the 2019 European capital of culture, the aim will be to produce a 3D virtualisation and

reconstruction of archaeological sites and museums

TORINO

• Torino first 5G town (announced April 2017) • San Marino first european country • Government tender: Bari Matera

first live demos in end 2017 (Torino) and 1Q2018


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The systemic impact of SW and AI in the Network

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“Why Software Is Eating the World”

Marc Andreessen coined his famous sentence

“Why Software Is Eating the World” in The Wall

Street Journal six years ago.

Today, the idea that “every company needs to

become a software company” is considered almost

unavoidable to be efficient, effective and able to

compete in such a dynamic market.

Since 2007 concepts such as Programmable

networks and Software networking were discussed

in Research…


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…Software is eating the Telecoms

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Virtualizzazione, SDN, Open Source, Automazione con AI …

Sofwarization at the core of 5G

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…towards a new unifying service paradigm: X-as-a-Service

• With Softwarization, future infrastructures (e.g., 5G) will assume the form of extended and

distributed execution and communication environments, based on a “continuum” of virtual functions

and resources

• “X-as-a-Service” paradigm is emerging:

• SDN Controllers, Virtual Network Functions (VNF) and end-Users’ services/applications can be all seen as “apps” under some generalized

assumptions.

• Services can be seen as “chains” of service components (e.g., software tasks) executed/run onto pools

of logical resources (e.g., VMs, Containers) interconnected via logical network links (e.g., VPN);

• concept of “network slice”;

• This will also imply the emergence of a new complexity: how managing and orchestrating

dynamically a sheer number of virtual components (from VNF to microservices).


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• Emergent security AI methods could offers the potential for (almost) real-time security threat detection and

defense: speed to access big data in real time and the ability to learn are the main key points.

• Example: MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) created a startup PatternEx to

develop an Artificial Intelligence system (called AI2) which combines analyst intuition with machine learning

and use big data to build an end-to-end active learning system for security.

Source: http://thehackernews.com/2016/04/artificial-intelligence-cyber-security.html

• The system first scans the content with unsupervisedmachine-learning techniques and then, at the end ofthe day, presents its findings to human analysts;

• human analysts identify which events are actualcyber attacks and which aren't. This feedback is thenincorporated into the machine learning system ofAI2 and is used the next day for analyzing new logs.

Cybersecurity


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An end-to-end Operating System

Source: J. Doyle «Universal Laws and Architectures»


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Network OS, 5G OS – un esempio: Telenor and Cisco target telco innovators with “Android for network infrastructure”

Oct 2017 –

Telenor has launched a new platform which it is billing as the Android operating system of network infrastructure.

WorkingGroupTwo aims to build an "innovation ecosystem" for the telecoms sector, allowing operators to open up their networks to

offer new services more quickly.

Service providers pay a single installation fee as well as a monthly rate. The system is integrated on a host network by WorkingGroupTwo

through the same standard interfaces which are used to host traditional MVNOs.

https://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/press-wire/telenor-and-cisco-target-telco-innovators-with-android-for-operators

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…and shift will continue from CAPEX (hw) to OPEX (sw)

Currently TLC is based on Four players … what’s next?

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Ericsson Cisco Nokia Alu Huawei ZTE IBM Microsoft

Annual Revenue B$, 2015


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Network as a Service enables completly new (global) competitor

http://us6.campaign-archive1.com/?u=e7ba52423a4c879d0ae56cbae&id=dd44fa0458&e=70df740c80#mctoc3


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Can AT&T Retrain 100.000 people?

Read 1 - Fortune's Aaron Pressman has the story.

Read 2 - http://www.dallasnews.com/business/att/2016/02/15/att-tells-its-280000-workers-adapt-to-new-technology-or-else


Gabriele Elia

https://click.email.fortune.com/?qs=92193432f3d628064048f9fff6ca99a5bf64eb493445b48824e0b02864ce8127b2e323bd98a0da9e0edf8533490d1b4f28804e4ca9e4a887

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/att/2016/02/15/att-tells-its-280000-workers-adapt-to-new-technology-or-else

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Software Positive Returns to Employee

Research by Jae Song of the Social Security administration and four colleagues found that most of the rise of

inequality in pay from 1978 to 2013 was because some companies were paying more than others — not because of

a wider gap between high-paid and low-paid workers within a company.

“Employees inside winning companies enjoy rising incomes and interesting cognitive challenges,” the Stanford

economist Nicholas Bloom, one of the co-authors of that paper, wrote recently in Harvard Business Review.

“Workers outside this charmed circle experience something quite different.”


Gabriele Elia

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/s/social_security_us/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier

http://stanford.edu/~djprice/papers/FUI_22OCT2016_FINAL_QJE_SUBMIT.pdf

https://hbr.org/cover-story/2017/03/corporations-in-the-age-of-inequality

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.. Thanks to Software Positive Returns to Scale World

A Positive Returns-to-Scale World

The most extreme example of this would be the software business, where a company can invest bottomless sums

in a piece of software, but then sell it to each additional customer for practically nothing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/upshot/the-amazon-walmart-showdown-that-explains-the-modern-economy.html


Gabriele Elia

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/upshot/the-amazon-walmart-showdown-that-explains-the-modern-economy.html

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Last toughts: “making meanings not techologies”, “next industries and consumer transformation”,

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5G and the Technology Substitution Trap, The Epiphany opportunity


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«Bristol IS OPEN»- Smart city strategy

City as a platform controlled in Sotfware

Source: http://www.bristolisopen.com/

Developments in SW, HW andtelecom networks creating aninternet of people and things.

Using data sensors, smart city technologies will be able to respond in real-time to everyday events including congestion, waste management, entertainment events, e-democracy, energy supply and more.

“Bristol is an open programmable city”

… a research and development laboratory for urban change

“Bristol is Open” – a joint venture between the University of Bristol and Bristol City Council. Bristol is Open is anecosystem with Industrial Partners, several Suppliers and Supporters.

The infrastructure is controlled in Software – creating a Software Defined Network – based on the OpenFlow standard. It uses Network Function Virtualisation to make the infrastructure super-fluid, sliceable, and usable by many different projects at once


Gabriele Elia

http://www.bristolisopen.com/

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5G ad enbaler of digital tranformation

Once a vertical industry can safely assume that wireless connectivity is “truly anywhere and anytime” and can be guaranteed e.g. >99.999% of the time, the approach to system design and operation changes fundamentally. This will transfomr the current vertical industries into connected, fully digital verticals.

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/consumer-business/deloitte-uk-consumer-review-digital-predictions.pdf

Faster connectivity will allow consumer and brands to interact more and more in real time basis and while on the move


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5G will not only reshape the wireless industry but industries around it, pretty much every vertical of significance

5G will also be unique as the aggregate non-Phone devices will dominate phones for the first time globally. We will

have to figure out architectures, business models, and policies to deal with the consumer demand and

expectations.

5g-chetan-sharma-consulting5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators

Gabriele Elia

Grazie