DOMESTIC:

HCL-Geometric deal gets CCI green signal SBI says will gain USD120bn in assets from takeover of units Fortis Healthcare board approves scheme for diagnostics

business demerger IL&FS, Unitech JV bags Rs136.26cr project from PGCIL Court defers decision on Roche's plea against Zydus' cancer

drug Shriram EPC bags contract worth Rs1,530cr Pfizer buys Medivation for USD14bn to boost cancer drug Clarification by Castrol regarding false news on BP unit selling

up to USD261mn stake in Castrol India HPCL, GAIL to divest up to 50% stake in petrochem plant in

Andhra Pradesh GE Oil & Gas bags contract of ONGC Idea Cellular denies report on mega merger talks with

Vodafone EMA accepts Biocon and Mylan's regulatory submission for

proposed breast cancer biosimilar drug Nalco's Rs2,835cr buyback offer to open on August 30 J Kumar-CRTG joint venture gets letter of award for Rs5,012cr

project from Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation Ltd Vodafone India to delay IPO filing until towards end-2016 ECONOMY:

GST rollout likely to be pushed to mid-2017 as India Inc. seeks time

INDUSTRY:

India adds 3.6 GW to solar capacity Government approves rail projects worth Rs21,000cr

TM

Price Performance (%)

Company 1M 3M 12M

Supreme Petrochem Ltd 2.9% 12% 80% Indian Hume Pipe Co. Ltd 44% 82% 60% Shanthi Gears Ltd 1.1% 23% 34% Hind Rectifiers Ltd 15% 40% 23% KCP Limited -3.7% 21.9% 32.1% Navneet Education Ltd 8.8% 18% 12% Harita Seating System Ltd -11% -12% 134% Camlin Fine Sciences -8% -5% -6% GEE Limited -4% 2% 56% Hester Biosciences Ltd 1% 20% 26% West Coast Paper Mills Ltd 11% 17% 49% Rallis India Ltd 5% 7% 6% The Hitech Gears Ltd 11% 19% 11% Bharat Bijlee Ltd -7% -15% 35% Castrol India Ltd 3.6% 13% -4% Engineers India Ltd 18% 45% 53% TNPL 20% 34% 79% Triveni Turbines Ltd 1% 13% 10% Rajoo Engineers Ltd -15.3% 2% 19% Siemens Ltd -2% 9% 6% Hikal Ltd -2.2% 20% 61% TRIL -11.5% -11% 62% KEC International Ltd -3.1% -1% 7% Aksh Optifibre Ltd -9.0% 1% -14% GMM Pfaudler Ltd -1.0% 19% 36% Alicon Castalloy Ltd -2.2% -16% -17%

One Year Sensex Performance

Coverage Universe Valuations

Company CMP Reco. Tgt price Upside Mcap EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PE(x)

(Rs) (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E

Supreme Petrochem Ltd 190 BUY 275 45.1 18.3 25.6 17.4 0.5 0.4 12.3 8.5 Indian Hume Pipe Co. Ltd 605 BUY 650 7.4 14.7 28.0 19.6 13.9 12.1 12.8 10.1 Shanthi Gears Ltd 124 BUY 150 21.5 10.1 88.9 70.0 5.5 5.5 37.1 32.9 Hind Rectifiers Ltd 88 BUY 110 24.7 1.3 73.3 16.7 1.3 1.0 26.5 11.2 KCP Limited 96 BUY 150 56.3 12.4 31.2 22.2 2.2 2.0 13.0 11.0 Navneet Education Ltd 104 BUY 130 25.0 24.8 16.8 14.6 2.5 2.2 10.0 8.9 Harita Seating System Ltd 516 BUY 750 45.3 4.0 40.8 30.0 1.4 1.3 25.6 20.0 Camlin Fine Sciences 88 BUY 140 59.6 8.4 10.8 8.2 1.5 1.3 8.2 6.7 GEE Limited 41 BUY 70 70.7 1.0 17.8 12.8 0.7 0.6 6.8 6.0 Hester Biosciences Ltd 768 BUY 875 13.9 6.5 47.1 38.7 6.6 5.2 23.0 18.5 West Coast Paper Mills Ltd 100 BUY 110 10.4 6.6 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 2.4 1.9 Rallis India Ltd 226 BUY 260 15.0 44.0 28.9 22.6 2.6 2.3 16.1 13.3 The Hitech Gears Ltd 311 BUY 450 44.7 5.8 21.8 16.7 1.2 1.0 9.2 7.8 Bharat Bijlee Ltd 769 BUY 1500 95.0 4.3 76.8 35.6 0.8 0.7 26.6 22.8 Castrol India Ltd 426 BUY 650 52.6 210.7 32.3 30.1 5.4 5.2 20.6 19.2 Engineers India Ltd 264 BUY 325 23.1 89.0 25.2 24.1 3.5 4.3 23.3 28.9 Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd 333 BUY 350 5.1 23.1 10.7 9.1 1.7 1.7 7.0 6.0 Triveni Turbines Ltd 122 BUY 175 43.3 40.3 39.5 33.2 0.5 0.5 2.6 2.2 Rajoo Engineers Ltd 17 BUY 24 39.9 1.0 13.4 9.7 0.8 0.7 7.1 5.4 Siemens Ltd 1295 BUY 1500 15.8 461.1 49.2 42.3 3.9 3.5 28.8 24.5 Hikal Ltd 179 BUY 250 40.1 14.7 42.2 29.8 2.3 2.1 11.2 9.8 Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Ltd 306 BUY 450 47.1 4.1 -13.9 22.6 8.7 6.3 385.7 69.5 KEC International Ltd 137 BUY 200 46.0 35.2 17.3 12.0 0.7 0.6 8.4 6.7 Aksh Optifibre Ltd 15 BUY 24 63.3 2.4 7.1 4.3 0.5 0.5 3.2 2.4 GMM Pfaudler Ltd 355 BUY 500 40.8 5.2 28.2 27.2 2.0 1.9 14.6 13.5 Alicon Castalloy Ltd 293 BUY 450 53.5 3.6 16.1 12.7 0.7 0.6 6.6 6.0

15000

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The week that went by: The domestic benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty were expected to open after the government appointed Urjit Patel as next governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The markets however opened flat for the week sliding into the negative zone. With the European markets opening strong there was trimming of the losses that took place. Amid consolidation the markets extended losses with a flat closing in the green though for the second day of trade. The markets for the week were in consolidation mode.

Result Analysis:

Engineers India Limited The net sales during the quarter came in at Rs3,418mn as against Rs3,914mn, drop of 12.7%. There was substantial improvement seen in the Ebidta margins at 21% as against 9% in the same quarter last year. The net profit stood at Rs803mn, doubling from the comparative figure of Rs535mn in the same quarter last year. On the segmental front, the consulting and engineering segment grew by 19% in the quarter under reference. On the other hand, the turnkey projects reported a drop of 56% which dragged the overall sales for the quarter.

Outlook and recommendations: The company has reported good operational performance in the quarter under reference. Also the profits stood strong. Being one of our picks in the consultancy space we expect the scope of business activities to expand further. We had initiated a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs325 and maintain the same.

Navneet Education Limited: AGM Update The entire nation was hit by drought like conditions over the past two years and so were the Publication and Stationery segments of Navneet Education Limited (NEL) as well. However, things appear to be changing here due to better rainfall this year. Some of the triggers which will lead to revival of economy include ease of doing business, infusing FDI in India and more focus on education which will indirectly benefit NEL as well. Moreover, the emphasis by the Government of India on Digital India and E-learning will add more opportunities for the company. As per management, there was an increase in the CBSE and Children & General books this year. Management has ambitious goals to establish their presence outside the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat. The company has been focusing on the Exports Business especially in the US. The company works on contract basis with the buyers there. The company has two subsidiaries namely eSense Learning Private Limited (100%) and Navneet Learning LLP (95%). The management is hoping to see a break even in the same in times to come. e-sense has had a break even at the cash levels, but yet to make a break even at the PAT level. The company was successful in selling more digital contents to its users. For online consumption, company’s products are available on „TOPScorer.com‟ and the same will lead into a good revenue improvement model going forward. The company has 12 CBSE schools under management under the brand Orchid Internationals with a student enrolment of more than 10,000. There is scope for an addition of nearly 4,000-5,000 enrolments. The company has been maintaining PAT margins of 13-14% over the years. Moreover, the company also indicated that they receive some rental income due to leasing to some MNC company. YOUVA app (which is rebranding or change of brand name for the products to be offered) was launched by the company this year. The company spent nearly Rs70-80mn for the same. Change in syllabus and paper pattern for standard IX and X will be a major trigger for the company to perform well in the next 2-3 years. The company has been maintaining its debt- free status, paying consistent dividends and the investment rationale remain intact. NEL has always been able to lead the industry. Digital revolution will elicit and propel growth in years to come.

TM

Great set of numbers

Poised to grow

Supreme Petrochem Limited: AGM Update The company is on a very strong growth path. The company intends to be bigger in the segment they operate in with its six verticals. In the segment for Polystyrene (PS) the company is utilizing around70% of the effective capacity; while the domestic market saw a healthy growth of around 10% over the last 3 quarters in FY16. The company has been focusing on strengthening the focus of distribution network in Europe and US. As per management Brexit has had no impact on the exports market for the company. Management is optimistic about a 6-7% volumes growth in the PS industry as a whole. In the domain of Expanded polystyrene (EPS) the company has utilized nearly 58% of the effective capacity in FY16. GOI has accepted the use of EPS 3-D panels for energy efficient housing systems. In the segment for Speciality Polymers and Compounds (SPC), SPL in collaboration with Ultrabatch has developed masterbatches has agricultural application and some field trials are already in progress. As per management the segment for EPS is expected to grow at nearly 10% in the current year. The company is also focusing on augmenting the exports volumes by developing the existing markets and entering new markets. Many projects across the country are increasingly using Extruded Polystyrene (XPS) for effective insulation. Roof and wall insulation are an essential component for the concept of green building. Some of the major triggers for the same include the Smart City project by GOI, setting up the new capital at Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Geofoam technology which can be used for construction of roads and highways (on soft soils) using EPS blocks was introduced. As mentioned by the Management last year as well, trial projects for defence were undertaken. Capex for the current year which is nearly Rs230mn, is progressing as per schedule. Management is very optimistic about Styrene Methyl Methacrylate (SMMA) which will be introduced for the first time in India. As per them, plant start up is expected by the end of 2016. SMMA is used for the manufacture of optical sheets apart from the applications in medical devices, home ware, office accessories etc.

COVERAGE NEWS:

Government approves rail projects worth Rs21,000cr The Union cabinet approved massive line expansion programme that includes nine projects of track construction for a length of 1,937.38km at an estimated cost of Rs20,867.24cr. Details suggest that most of the projects are to be completed within 3-6 years.

Our comments: This is a boost to all the companies that deal in the business of railway infrastructure. It stands positive for our recommendation Hind Rectifiers in this segment.

Clarification by Castrol India: As released by the management, it said that in reference to letter dated August 24, 2016, in respect of the news report that has appeared in the Economic Times dated August 24, 2016, and captioned “Castrol to sell USD261mn shares via block Trade Today that Castrol India Limited is not privy to any potential transactions and had no information from the shareholders regarding the occurrence of reported transaction. Given that there has been no sale of shares as reported in the media, the above news report of 24th August 2016 is evidently based on market speculation and rumours. Should the company receive information about such transaction in the future, it will continue to follow the mandated procedures and inform the stock exchanges in a timely manner.

TM

Strong potential going forward

Nod for rail projects funding

Clarification on Castrol India news

Global Bus Seat Market Growing at 5.2% CAGR to 2022 Driven by Increasing Transportation Mediums As indicated by the report from the PR newswire, the bus seat market in APAC is expected to grow at the highest rate between 2016 and 2022 due to high population and increasing demand for transportation mediums, along with an expected global CAGR of 5.2%, while school buses segment to hold a large market share during the forecast period. The bus seat market is expected to be valued at USD10.03bn by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 5.2% between 2016 and 2022. The major reason for the growth of the bus seat market is the increasing demand for comfort and luxury, high investments in bus transportation by governments, and expansion in tourism and private bus transportation services. The rising demand for bus seat for transit, transfer, school, and coach buses have increased the growth opportunities for the bus seat market. Due to high demand for bus transportation in schools, the bus seat market for school buses is high, and this trend is expected to remain the same in the future. These buses are mainly focused on the safety and comfort for children. Also, the demand for school buses is increasing globally as buses are safe and convenient way for children to travel. These factors are likely to propel the growth of the bus seat market for school buses.

Our comments: This is a boost to our recommendation of Harita Seating Systems leading player in this domain.

ECONOMY: GST rollout likely to be pushed to mid-2017 as India Inc. seeks time The government could be looking at rolling out the country's biggest indirect tax reform from mid-2017, realising that it may be an uphill task to have all the pieces for GST rollout in place by April 1, the start of the fiscal. The central Goods and Service Tax (GST) and integrated GST laws may make it through Parliament only in the budget session, not leaving much time for preparation for the industry. All options are open. The target date is April 1 and effort will be to keep it said an official, but added that the industry has sought six months for preparation from the time when the law and rules are finalised.

Our comments: It would be preferred if the new regime is rolled out after adequate preparation, even if it is in the middle of the year. It can come in any quarter of the year if they are ready. It is better to launch it after proper preparations.

INDUSTRY:

India adds 3.6 GW to solar capacity India's total installed solar capacity has grown by over 80% in the last 12 months to reach 8.1 GW. Out of the 3.6 GW capacity added in this period, 2.7 GW has come from four southern states with Tamil Nadu alone adding over 1.2 GW. These six states account for 80% of the capacity added in India. Including the current pipeline of 14 GW, 55% of total current and planned capacity will be located in four southern states; fresh demand from these states is expected to be muted.

Our comments: Market growth beyond 2018 will depend on fresh demand coming from states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

TM

GST rollout delayed

Strong positive signals from the sector

Addition to solar capacity

COMPANY:

HCL-Geometric deal gets CCI green signal Competition Commission has cleared IT company HCL Technologies equity swap deal to buy the business of Geometric Ltd. The deal excludes Geometric's 58% stake in 3DPLM Software Solutions Ltd a joint venture with Dassault Systems. The fair trade regulator has also approved the merger of remaining undertaking of Geometric with 3DPLM. Dassault is to have 100% stake in the 3DPLM. In April, HCL Technologies and Geometric Ltd signed an agreement for the deal. Our comments: As part of the transaction, HCL would issue 10 shares to shareholders of Geometric for every 43 shares held by them in the company.

SBI says will gain USD120bn in assets from takeover of units State Bank of India (SBI) will gain USD120bn in assets following its merger with associate banks and Bharatiya Mahila Bank. Policymakers want to recapitalise and consolidate India’s state-run banks so that they can extend fresh credit and help drive an investment-led recovery in Asia’s third-largest economy that is currently getting a boost from state and private consumption. India’s 27 public sector banks account for 70% of its banking sector assets, as well as the lion’s share of the country’s USD120bn in troubled loans.

Our comments: SBI said the merger would expand its assets by 36% to about USD447bn.

Fortis Healthcare board approves scheme for diagnostics business demerger Fortis Healthcare Ltd.’s board of directors yesterday approved demerger of its diagnostics business, which will include its majority owned subsidiaries SRL Ltd and Fortis Malar Hospitals Ltd, into a separate listed company through a composite scheme of arrangement and amalgamation. Preceding the merger, Fortis Malar, which operates a hospital facility in Chennai, will sell its hospital business to Fortis Healthcare for a lump sum cash consideration of Rs43cr. The name of Fortis Malar will subsequently be changed to SRL Ltd which is proposed to be listed on the National Stock Exchange, in addition to its current listing on the BSE.

Our comments: Post restructuring, promoters will own 63.1% and 40.6% in the Fortis Healthcare and demerged entity Fortis Malar (to be renamed SRL), respectively.

IL&FS, Unitech JV bags Rs136.26cr project from PGCIL IL&FS Engineering Services along with its joint venture partner Unitech Power Transmission has bagged a contract worth Rs136.26cr from Power Grid Corporation for a project in Gujarat. The JV partners have received a Letter of Award from PGCIL for supply contract for tower package-TW05 for 765 KV D/C Bhuj-Banaskanta transmission line (Part-V) associated with Green Energy Corridors: Inter-State Transmission Scheme (ISTS) - Part C, along with contract for construction works of this line in Gujarat.

Our comments: The total value of this contract is Rs136.26cr and the project is expected to complete in 23 months from the date of issue of the LOA.

TM

Mergers with associate banks positive for SBI

CCI signal for HCL– Geometric

Diagnostic division demerger for Fortis

PGCIL order received by IL&FS, Unitech

Court defers decision on Roche's plea against Zydus' cancer drug The Delhi High Court has deferred a decision on the maintainability of a petition by Swiss drug maker Roche Holding AG to stop Zydus Cadila from selling a copy of its breast cancer drug trastuzumab in India. Roche sued Zydus Cadila and the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) last week, alleging that the Indian company launched its product, Vivitra, in the country without generating its own clinical trial data.

Our comments: Court is still looking at whether the suit is maintainable and whether the parties have a remedy under the Drugs & Cosmetics Act itself in such cases where the question is whether the approval given by DCGI is appropriate or not.

Shriram EPC bags contract worth Rs1,530cr Shriram EPC’s 100% subsidiary, Shriram EPC FZE, Sharjah has been awarded an overseas contract for an amount of USD230mn (around Rs1,530cr). The order entails constructing the Balance of Plant (BoP) for a 1.2 MTPA Mini Mill Project in Sohar, Sultanate of Oman and the project execution period will be 32 months.

Our comments: The customer (Moon Iron and Steel) is an Oman based company with investments from Gulf Investment Corporation, Oman Development fund and Sultan’s Special Forces Pension fund. The project debt is funded by a consortium of Omani banks.

NBCC bags Rs120cr contract from ASI NBCC India said it has bagged a Rs120cr contract from Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) for construction of Institute of Archaeology and UNESCO Category-II Centre in Greater Noida. ASI has executed a memorandum of understanding with NBCC for "assigning work for construction of Institute of Archaeology and UNESCO Category-II Centre at Knowledge Park- II, Greater Noida amounting Rs120cr.

Our comments: NBCC secured a total business of Rs344.72cr in July.

Pfizer buys Medivation for USD14bn to boost cancer drug roster Pfizer Inc, beating out numerous other bidders, said it would buy U.S. cancer drug company Medivation Inc for USD14bn in cash, adding its blockbuster prostate cancer drug Xtandi to the company's growing oncology roster. The offer is at a substantial premium to Sanofi SA's initial offer to buy Medivation for USD52.50 in April that pushed the San Francisco-based company to put itself up for sale. Pfizer said the deal was approved by boards of both companies and should be completed in the third or fourth quarter.

Our comments: The Medivation deal illustrates shift in Pfizer's M&A strategy from lowering taxes the rationale behind the failed Allergan tax inversion deal to strengthening its lineup of branded drugs, especially lucrative cancer treatments.

HPCL, GAIL to divest up to 50% stake in petrochem plant in Andhra Pradesh Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd and gas utility GAIL India Ltd will divest up to 50% stake in the Rs30,000cr petrochemical plant which is being set up in Andhra Pradesh. HPCL and GAIL are looking at setting up a 1 million tonnes Ethylene Derivatives plant, which will produce a wide range of petrochemical raw materials for the manufacture of detergents, paints and coatings, cosmetics, textiles and adhesives.

Our comments: HPCL and GAIL decided to do the petrochem plan together after their plans to team up with France's Total, Lakshmi N Mittal Group and Oil India Ltd (OIL) for a 15 million tonnes a year refinery-cum-petrochemical plant at Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh fell through.

TM

Deferment of decision by court on Roche's

plea

Order for Shriram EPC

Pfizer buys Medivation

Divestment by HPCL, GAIL

ASI gives order to NBCC

GE Oil & Gas bags contract of ONGC Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has awarded a multi-million-dollar frame agreement to US energy giant GE Oil & Gas, under which the latter will support the state firm's exploratory drilling campaign in shallow to medium waters for the next three years. GE will provide an estimated 55 subsea wellheads (SG5) over three years for the operator's offshore drilling campaign.

Our comments: Under the contract, the first wellhead will be supplied in the fourth quarter of 2016, with GE manufacturing part of the scope in India for the first time, in Kakinada, with engineering and project management support from regional teams in Singapore.

Idea Cellular denies report on mega merger talks with Vodafone Idea Cellular strongly denied a news report that it was in exploratory talks about a merger with larger rival Vodafone India. As indicated by the company that it is absolutely untrue and preposterous. A spokesman for Vodafone India, India's No. 2 operator by market share and the local arm of Britain's Vodafone Group Plc, declined to comment on the report.

Our comments: Both of companies are struggling with their data revenue market share and ahead of a big competitive change in the industry they might want to get bigger. Any such deal would also face tough regulatory scrutiny and analysts say approvals would be unlikely, as the companies would breach the 50% revenue market share limit in many regions of the country if they did try to merge.

EMA accepts Biocon and Mylan's regulatory submission for proposed breast cancer biosimilar drug The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has accepted for review Biocon and Mylan's Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for a proposed biosimilar Trastuzumab, used to treat certain breast and gastric cancers. The companies--co-developors of this proposed biosimilar anticipate that this may be the first MAA for a Trastuzumab biosimilar accepted by EMA for review. A biosimilar is a copy of a complex biotech drug.

Our comments: The development comes even while Biocon and Mylan are engaged in a court battle in India against Swiss biotech firm Roche over marketing restrictions imposed on their trastuzumab brands--CANMAb (Biocon) and Hertraz (Mylan).

TM

KEY NEWS ANALYSIS

Contract from ONGC for GE oil & gas

No talks of merger for Idea and Vodafone

EMA accepts submission from

Biocon and Mylan

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TM