4-29-15 MASTER EBC Ocean and Coastal Resources Program - Coastal Resiliency and Marine Spatial Planning

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    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    EBC Ocean & Coastal Resources Program:

    Coastal Resiliency and Marine Spatial

    Planning

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    Payson R. Whitney III, P.E.

    Chair, EBC Ocean & Coastal

    Resources Committee

    Vice President, Water & Coastal Engineering

    ESS Group, Inc.

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    Welcome

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    Leslie-Ann McGee

    Program Co-Chair and Moderator

    Director, Ocean and Coastal Solutions

    Battelle

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    Introduction

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    Harlan Doliner

    Program Co-Chair

    Counsel, Head of Maritime Group

    Verrill Dana LLP

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    Introduction

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    Steven Miller

    Supervisor of Environmental Management

    Systems and Sustainability

    MassDOT

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    DOT Approach to Coastal

    Resiliency

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    Environmental Business

    Council

    April 29, 2015

    4/29/20157

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    The Central Artery/Tunnel (CA/T) system is a critical link in regional

    transportation and a vitally important asset in the Bostonmetropolitan area with 160 lane miles half of them in tunnels, sixinterchanges, and 200 bridges.

    Tip ONeill Tunnel Exit & Entrance Ramps Tip ONeill Tunnel Exit & Entrance Ramps Tip ONeill Tunnel Exit Ramp

    Vent Building 1 Vent Building 4Detail of 15KV Electrical Conduit

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    165,000 Average Daily Travel in 2014

    Tip ONeill TunnelNorthernmost Portal

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    Stakeholder, Technical Advisory Committee, andInstitutional Knowledge meetings were used toinform and refine the project approach.

    2 Formal Stakeholder Meetings: Cities of Boston and Cambridge, TBHA,BWSC, EOEEA, DCR, CZM, MWRA, MassPort (Logan InternationalAirport), MEMA, consultant teams for Cambridge and MassPort

    2 Formal Technical Advisory Committee Meetings: EPA Region 1, USACOE,

    Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), NOAA

    Many IK Meetings: District 6 Operations and Maintenance, Electrical,Environmental (stormwater pump stations and outfalls)

    | Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot

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    | Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot

    Project Overview

    Define Geographical ScopeInventory of Assets

    Surveys of Critical Areas of Central Artery

    Hydrodynamic AnalysisVulnerability Assessment

    Adaptation Strategy

    Project report and presentations

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    4/29/2015 | Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot12

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    Includes relevant physical processes (tides, storm surge, wind, waves,

    wave setup, river discharge, sea level rise, future climate scenarios)

    Currents

    Storm Surge

    Tides

    Water Levels

    Winds

    SLR

    Discharge Infrastructure

    Waves

    Wave Setup

    Charles RiverDam

    Amelia Earhart Dam

    High Reso lut ion Hydrodynamic Model ing

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    Amelia Earhart Dam

    Model Input

    Data Input Source

    LiDAR and topography MassGIS, MassDOT, USGS, NOAA CSC, Site-specific surveys

    Bathymetry NOAA/NGDC, USGS, Site-specific surveys

    Land cover MassGIS, USGS

    River flow and hydrographs BWSC, USGS, City of Cambridge, VHB

    Historical high water marks USGS, Gadoury (1979)

    Tides NOAA Tides and Currents

    Sea level rise scenarios US National Climate Assessment (2012)

    Flood control structures Massachusetts DCR, USACE, MCZM

    Storm climatology - Tropical Emanuel et al. (2006), Global Climate Models

    Storm climatologyExtra-Tropical (Vickery et al., 2013), (ECMWF, 2014), Myers and Malkin (1961)

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    Risk Inundation Maps

    Regional Output

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    Depth of Inundation Maps

    Regional Output

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    Vulnerability Assessment

    While considering exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity itbecame apparent during the IK meetings that there is a high

    sensitivity to flooding to almost all structures with little redundancy inthe system any water at grade is a problem.

    Therefore, all structures have an equal priority

    4/29/2015 | Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot22

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    Adaptation Strategy

    Mix of local and regional actionscoordinated with otherorganizations.

    Local protection of structures with water less than 2 feet wouldconsist of relatively inexpensive temporary flood structures. 1%

    storm flood depths exceeding 2 feet would require a perimeter floodwalls but will not be needed until after 2030 and beyond. Portalsare vulnerable to flooding today but could be protected withtemporary barriers. Once the 0.1% flood depths exceed 0.5 feetflood gates would be required.

    Regional protection plans are still under development but will befocused on major flood pathways identified in the 2070 and 2100analysis.

    4/29/2015 | Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot23

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    Notes:aInside (downstream) of Portal BIN62B-POR, so protected if portal protected

    bOutside (upstream) of Portal BIN7UG-POR, floods if Boat Section floods

    cSee note b. Also in 2030, 1% flood, there is only minor flooding of the Boat Section.

    dDoor to pump station located in boat section, sou th and outs ide of Portal 7J8-POR. Portal is flooded

    under 1% flood level in 2030.

    Table 5-2. The vulnerability results of non-Boat Section Structures for 2013 and 20 30 flooding s cenarios.

    20 13 indicates present vulnerability and 2030 indicates vulnerabili ty over the period from the just past

    the present to 2030.Note: when a range of dep ths is shown, it means that flood dep th varies along the perimeter of the st ructure.

    Structure_ID 2013 1 %

    Depth (ft)

    2030 1 %

    Depth (ft)

    Structure Location

    D6A-DC03 0 0 to 0.3 Depot-Main Complex SMF

    Rutherford Street, Charlestown

    D6D-DC01 0 to 0.5 0 to 1.5 Depot-Main Complex - 93 Granite Ave, Milton

    D6D-D1-B 0 to 0.4 0.7 D6 Granite Ave Building B

    D6D-D1-C 0 0.2 D6 Granite Ave Building C

    HOC-D6 0 0 to 0.2 Complex HOC / ES02 / I-90 ML

    Mass port Haul Road, South Boston

    D6-ES02-FAC 0 0 to .03 Emergency Respon se Station 2

    D6-SWO4-FAC 0 Floodedd Storm Water Pump Station 4

    TB03-D6 0 to 0.1 0.1 Complex TB03 / ERS07

    Bulfinch Triangle, East Boston

    D6-TB03-FAC 0 0.1 to 0.45 Toll Facility Building Sumner Tunnel

    ERS07 0 0.25 to 0.7 Emergency Response Station 7

    TA03-D6 0 to 0.1 0.1 to 0.8 Complex TA03

    Havre Street, East Boston

    D6-TA03-FAC 0 0.4 to 0.8 Sumner/Callahan

    Tolls/Administration/Engineering

    D6-VB11-FAC 0 0 to 0.25 Vent Building 11 - Liverpool Street, East Boston

    D6-VB13-FAC 0 0.05 to 0.7 Vent Building 13 - Decatur Street, East Boston

    D6-VB1-FAC 0 0 to 1 Vent Building 1 - 55 Dorchest er Avenue, Boston

    D6-VB6-FAC 0 0.4 Vent Building 6 - 2 Fid Kennedy Drive, S. Boston

    TE061W 0 0.4 Tunne l Egress 61W at VB6

    MBTAAQ 0.4 0.5 to 1.5 MBTA Aquarium Station

    MBTA Aquarium Station-

    MBTAAQ

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    Table 6-1. Number of lanes and dimensions for the portals in Table 5.3 requiring gates either now or by 2030

    and material and installation costs.

    Portal Label No. ofLanes

    Width(ft)

    YearInstalled

    Gate($Million)

    Installation($Million)

    Total Cost($Million)

    BIN5VA 2 38 2013 1.7 1.1 2.8

    BINA07 2 29 2030 1.5 1.0 2.5

    BINC00 2 28 2030 1.5 1.0 2.5

    BIN7UG/BIN7MD/BIN7GC 2/4/5 180 2030 8.7 5.7 14.4

    BIN7J8/7J9 4 2 130 2013 6.4 4.2 10.6

    BIN7JD/7JE/7JF/7RX 1/2/2/1 178 2013 8.5 5.5 14.0

    Street View of Combined Bins 7UG,

    7MD, and 7GC (from Google Earth)

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    Interaction with MassDOT, Regional Stakeholders, and the TAC:

    MassDOT and the technical team members met weekly on a scheduledconference call and regularly in person to develop a good understanding ofthe project requirements, challenges and outputs. Besides the 2 major

    meetings of the stakeholders and TAC there were regular email andtelephone conversations. A positive environment was created to seek inputon regional and scientific issues.

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    MassDOT is Expanding the model to entire coast andislands:

    This work will assess the vulnerability of MassDOTstransportationsystems (primarily roads, bridges, and railways) along the entireMassachusetts coastline. This 2 year project has 3 main phases:

    Phase 1: Pilot-scale analysis to develop methodologies andtest modeling schemes.

    Phase 2: Extension and refinement of BH-FRM to the entirecoastline. The new model will be called the MassachusettsCoastline Flood Risk Model (MC-FRM) and will be used for theregional analysis.

    Phase 3: Regional scale vulnerability analysis and conceptualadaptation strategies.

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    Thank you!

    Steven Miller

    MassDOT, Highway Division10 Park Plaza, Room 4260

    Boston, MA 02116

    368-857-8809

    [email protected]

    4/29/2015

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    Kirk F. Bosma, P.E., M.C.E.

    Team Leader / Coastal Engineer

    Woods Hole Group

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    Case Studies: Technical

    Approach to Coastal Resiliency

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    Storm Surge Risk andCoastal EngineeringAdaptations in a

    Changing ClimateKirk F. Bosma, [email protected]

    April 29, 2015

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    Climate Change Preparation

    1. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Risk What is the real risk?

    2. Vulnerability Assessment How do we determine what is vulnerable?

    3. Preparedness Planning and Adaptations What should the plan be?

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    So how do we determine what is vulnerable?

    Inundation maps based on standard bathtub model donot reflect dynamic nature of coastal flooding

    Does not account for joint flooding conditions Does not include effects of infrastructure (e.g., dams) Does not account for tides

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    So how do we determine what is vulnerable?

    Worst possible scenario for emergency planning (worststorm at MHW)no associated risk planning

    Coarse modeling domain results in local inaccuracies Does not include impacts of waves Errors are relatively large (+/- 20%)

    Just hurricanes

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    Includes relevant physical processes (tides, storm surge, wind, waves,

    wave setup, river discharge, sea level rise, future climate scenarios)

    Currents

    Storm Surge

    Tides

    Water Levels

    Winds

    SLR

    Discharge Infrastructure

    Waves

    Wave Setup

    Hi-Res Hydrodynamic Modeling

    Charles RiverDam

    Amelia Earhart Dam

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    Why existing maps are not good enough

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    Regional Grid Requirements

    Grid covers a large regional area (North Atlantic) to capture large-scale storm

    (hurricane, noreaster) dynamics.

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    Boston Grid

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    Focus Areas

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    Amelia Earhart Dam

    Data Input Source

    LiDAR and topography MassGIS, MassDOT, USGS, NOAA CSC, Site-specificsurveys

    Bathymetry NOAA/NGDC, USGS, Site-specific surveys

    Land cover MassGIS, USGS

    River flow and hydrographsBWSC, USGS, City of Cambridge, VHB

    Historical high water marks USGS, Gadoury (1979)

    Tides NOAA Tides and Currents

    Sea level rise scenarios US National Climate Assessment (2012)

    Flood control structures Massachusetts DCR, USACE, MCZM

    Storm climatology - Tropical Emanuel et al. (2006), Global Climate Models

    Strom climatology Extra-Tropical

    (Vickery et al., 2013), (ECMWF, 2014), Myers and Malkin(1961)

    Model Input

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    Using Projections to Bracket Risk

    Parris et al. (2012)

    U. S. National ClimateAssessment.

    X4

    X3

    X2

    X1

    3a

    2100

    2a

    2070

    1a

    2030

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    Storm Climatology - Hurricanes

    Monte Carlo simulations,using a large statistically

    robust set of storms(Emanuel, et al., 2006) and aphysics based approach

    Present and future climatechange scenarios

    Simulates storms (bothhurricane and noreaster)combined with SLR andprecipitation

    A Large Statistically robustset of storms.

    No need to determine jointprobabilities.

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    Integration of Urban Dams

    Implementation of new boundarycondition in the ADCIRC model

    Allows evaluation of combinedprocesses

    Amelia Earhart Dam

    Charles River Dam

    Flood Control Structures

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    Model Validation Perfect Storm

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    Example Results Winds

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    Example Results - Waves

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    Example Results - Hurricane

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    Inundation Risk Maps

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    Depth of Inundation Maps

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    Example Assessment

    7.33 hrs

    LOCAL

    LOCAL

    l

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    Example Assessment

    10.0 hrs

    LOCAL

    LOCAL

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    Local Assessment

    Hull BMP Sites

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    HullBMP Sites

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    Time Variable Accretion

    S

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    Summary

    1. The MassDOT BH-FRM model

    provides high-resolution floodingresults for projected climate changescenarios.

    2. The BH-FRM includes relevantprocesses, storm types, and jointprobabilities.

    3. The BH-FRM provides realisticprobability based results that can bemore effectively used to assessvulnerabilities.

    4. The model can be used to test

    various adaptation and engineeringoptions, and can be connected toeconomic models.

    5. The BH-FRM is currently beingextended to the entire coastline ofMassachusetts.

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    Paul Kirshen, Ph.D.

    Research Professor

    University of New Hampshire

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    Climate Change and Adaptation

    Based on Vulnerability

    Assessment

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    Climate Change and daptation

    Planning Based on Vulnerability

    ssessment

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Battelle Memorial InstituteNorwell MA

    April 29 2015

    Paul Kirshen

    [email protected]

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    All human and natural systems are sensitive toclimate: thus as climate changes, their serviceswill change. Therefore we must consider how

    we will adjust to the changes, the process ofadaptation

    A mix of local and regional actions

    taken over space and time by publicand private organizations

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    Initial Step: VulnerabilityAssessment Impacts if no

    adaptation

    Function of Systems

    -Exposure

    -Sensitivity

    -Adaptive Capacity

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    Built EnvironmentAdaptation

    Accommodate

    Protect

    Retreat

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    Can we assign probabilities to

    these climate projections ?No (mostly)

    Deep Uncertainty

    US NCA, 2013)

    Address Uncertainty with

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    Address Uncertainty with

    Strategies that:

    Consider a range of future conditions (scenarios)

    Are robust, and/or flexible and adjustable

    Include no-regrets and co-benefit solutions

    Are integrated with mitigation, regional andsustainability planning

    Recognizes Adaptive Capacity (economic, social, andnatural resources, institutions, technology )

    Evaluated with Multiple Criteria

    Are stakeholder driven

    Combine here and now and prepare and monitor

    actions

    Example of Here and Now

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    Mechanical, electrical andemergency services on roofout of harms way

    Operable windows keyed openin event of systems failure

    Critical patient programs aboveground floor

    Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital, Charlestown Navy Yard, BostonArchitect: Perkins + Will Analytical diagrams P+W / Partners HealthCare

    Example of Here and Now

    Key floors above 2085 HighEstimate 100 Year Flood

    Prepare and Monitor

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    p

    Portsmouth Flooding Adaptation

    North Mill Pond, 13.5 ft NAVD

    S l f P t th NH Pl

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    Sample of Portsmouth NH Plan

    T i P i t (f Th 2100)

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    Trigger Points (from Thames 2100)

    Mean Sea Level

    Peak Surge Level

    Peak River Flood

    Erosion Habitat

    Land Use

    Public/Institutional Attitudes to Flood Risk

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    Articulating Floodwall

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    Articulating Floodwall

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    Enhanced Natural Dunes and Vegetation

    Addressing Water Quality Impacts

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    Addressing Water Quality Impacts

    Microbial Risks

    Improved FiltrationSystems MF and UF Membranes

    Advanced Disinfection

    Ozone Ultraviolet

    Advanced Oxidation Chemical RisksImproved Pretreatment

    GAC and Ion ExchangeSorption

    NF and RO Membranes

    Advanced Oxidation

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    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/8362183.stm

    Example of Staged Strategy

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/8362183.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/8362183.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/8362183.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/8362183.stm
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    Example of Staged Strategy

    Figure 15. Example of parapet wall

    After 2100 - Retreat

    Present to 2050Local Solutions

    2050 to 2100Regional Solutions

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    Corollaries

    Safe to Fail, not Fail Safe

    Design with Nature

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    78

    Five Natural Lines of Defense

    Inniss et al (2014)

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    NYC, A Stronger,. More Resilient New York, 2013

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    Scenario AnalysisLooking forreasonable solutions that work over

    the range of possibilitiesTop-Down (few uncertainties)

    Bottom-Up (many uncertainties)

    Top-Down, Predict-then-Act

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    p ,

    Select multi-criteria indicators and define their sensitivity

    Select scenarios of climate and other changeshigh andlow, moderate, ensemble (many)

    Determine Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity

    Define adaptation plans or policies over time and space

    Test plans against the scenarios

    Select plan that works most reasonably no matter whatscenario actually occurs

    Check for climate and other surprisesMonitor Climate and Other Thresholds

    Good for well-bounded problems

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    Bottom-Up, Context-First, RobustDecision Making, Decision Scaling, etc

    Define adaptation policy or plan

    Identify what climate and other changes

    makes the plan vulnerableInvestigate the possibilities of thesechanges occurring

    Make decision

    Good for complex combined scenariosand/or poorly bounded or understood

    future conditions

    SLR and Climate Scenarios

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    SLR and Climate Scenarios

    Storm Climatology (pre and post

    2050)

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    VulnerabilityExposureFrom WHG maps based upon annual probabilities offlooding ( include wave heights). Flood water at any part ofstructure or boat section is problem (10 9 14 IK meeting)

    Sensitivity - Each structure and boat section with few exceptionsare considered critical to maintaining the operability of the CATsystem. Large consequences if most structures or tunnels fail tomeet design conditions (10 9 14 IK meeting).

    Adaptive CapacityNo redundancieslow or zero adaptivecapacity

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    CAT Project Design Criteria (BBP,

    various dates, Volumes 13)

    Tunnels1000 year floodOthers100 year flood

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    Structure Protection with Wall and

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    Gate

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    Table 5-3. Flood depths of vulnerable Boat Sections with Portals. Flood depth ranges are further defined in

    notes below table.

    Structure_ID

    2013 0.1 %

    Depth (ft)

    < 2030 0.1 %

    Depth (ft) Ramp Area or Roadway Area

    BIN5VA-POR 0 to 1.0d 0 to 1.7e Ramp CN-SA

    Central Artery Northbound to Surface Artery

    Rose Kennedy Greenway Parcel 12

    BIN7J8-POR

    BIN7J9-POR

    BIN7JD-POR

    BIN7JE-PORBIN7JF-POR

    BIN7RX-POR

    0 to 0.9 0 to 2.9 I-90 Main Line and HOVEB

    at Highway Operations Center

    BIN7UG-POR

    BIN7GC-POR

    BIN7MD-POR

    0 to 0.4g 0 to 1.4h I-93 Northbound and Southbound

    Tip ONeill Tunnel Portals

    at Zakim Bridge

    BINA07-POR 0.3 0.7 Sumner Tunnel Entrance East Boston

    BINC00-POR 0 to 0.4i 0.3 to 0.8j Callahan Tunnel Exit East Boston

    Notes : dmore than 20% of perimeter at a depth >0.9 ft.emost of the perimeter is flooded at 1.1 ft.

    fmost of the perimeter is flooded at 1.9 ft.gmore than 80% of the perimeter is not flooded (0.0 ft depth).

    imost of the perimeter is flooded at 1.0 ftjmore than 30% of the perimeter is flooded at >0.3 ft.

    Tunnel Portals - Sensitive if flooding at grade exceeds 0.5 ft at most of perimeter

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    Table 5-2. The vulnerability results of non-Boat Section Structures for 2013 and 2030 flooding s cenarios.

    2013 indicates present vulnerability and 2030 indicates vulnerability over the period from the just past

    the present to 2030.

    Note: when a range of depths is shown, it means that flood depth varies along the perimeter of the st ructure.

    Structure_ID 2013 1 %

    Depth (ft)

    2030 1 %

    Depth (ft)

    Structure Location

    D6A-DC03 0 0 to 0.3 Depot-Main Complex SMF

    Rutherford Street, Charlestown

    D6D-DC01 0 to 0.5 0 to 1.5 Depot-Main Complex - 93 Granite Ave, Milton

    D6D-D1-B 0 to 0.4 0.7 D6 Granite Ave Building B

    D6D-D1-C 0 0.2 D6 Granite Ave Building C

    HOC-D6 0 0 to 0.2 Complex HOC / ES02 / I-90 ML

    Massport Haul Road, South Boston

    D6-ES02-FAC 0 0 to .03 Emergency Response Station 2

    D6-SWO4-FAC 0 Flooded Storm Water Pump Station 4

    TB03-D6 0 to 0.1 0.1 Complex TB03 / ERS07

    Bulfinch Triangle, East Boston

    D6-TB03-FAC 0 0.1 to 0.45 Toll Facility Building Sumner Tunnel

    ERS07 0 0.25 to 0.7 Emergency Response Station 7

    TA03-D6 0 to 0.1 0.1 to 0.8 Complex TA03

    Havre Street, East Boston

    D6-TA03-FAC 0 0.4 to 0.8 Sumner/Callahan

    Tolls/Administration/Engineering

    D6-VB11-FAC 0 0 to 0.25 Vent Building 11 - Liverpool Street, East Boston

    D6-VB13-FAC 0 0.05 to 0.7 Vent Building 13 - Decatur Street, East Boston

    D6-VB1-FAC 0 0 to 1 Vent Building 1 - 55 Dorchester Avenue, Boston

    D6-VB6-FAC 0 0.4 Vent Building 6 - 2 Fid Kennedy Drive, S. Boston

    TE061W 0 0.4 Tunnel Egress 61W at VB6

    MBTAAQ 0.4 0.5 to 1.5 MBTA Aquarium Station

    MBTA Aquarium Station-

    MBTAAQ

    Other Structures

    Flooding can be managed with small scale means up to 2 ft

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    Table 6-1. Number of lanes and dimensions for the portals in Table 5.3 requiring gates either now or by 2030

    and material and installation costs.

    Portal Label No. of

    Lanes

    Width

    (ft)

    Year

    Installed

    Gate

    ($Million)

    Installation

    ($Million)

    Total Cost

    ($Million)

    BIN5VA 2 38 2013 1.7 1.1 2.8

    BINA07 2 29 2030 1.5 1.0 2.5

    BINC00 2 28 2030 1.5 1.0 2.5

    BIN7UG/BIN7MD/BIN7GC 2/4/5 180 2030 8.7 5.7 14.4

    BIN7J8/7J9 4 2 130 2013 6.4 4.2 10.6

    BIN7JD/7JE/7JF/7RX 1/2/2/1 178 2013 8.5 5.5 14.0

    Street View of Combined Bins 7UG,

    7MD, and 7GC (from Google Earth)

    Adaptation Strategy: Example of Old

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    Adaptation Strategy: Example of Old

    Orchard Beach, Maine

    Expected Value Net Benefits of Adaptation at Old Orchard BeachME (present to 2050)

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    (p )

    SLR

    Scenario

    Adptation

    Action

    Expected

    Value of

    Residual

    Damages

    $million

    Adaptation

    Cost

    $million

    Total

    Damage

    andCost

    $million

    Damages

    Avoided

    (Benefit)

    $million

    Net

    Benefits

    $million

    No SLR

    No Action

    680

    0

    680

    0

    -680

    100 +

    0

    60

    60

    680

    620

    50 +

    3.4

    52.4

    55.8

    676.6

    620.8

    Low

    No Action

    899.3

    0

    899.3

    0

    -899.3

    100 +

    0

    60

    60

    899.3

    839.3

    50 +

    28.3

    52.4

    80.7

    871

    790.3

    High

    No Action

    1016.6

    0

    1016.6

    0

    -1016.6

    100 +

    37.6

    60

    97.6

    979

    881.4

    50 +

    67.8

    52.4

    120.2

    948.8

    828.6

    Thank you

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    Thank you

    94

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    Robbin E. Peach, MPA

    Program Manager of Resiliency

    Capital Programs and Environmental Affairs

    Massport

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    MassportsApproach to Coastal

    Resiliency and Marine Planning

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    ResiliencyMassport

    A pathway to a more resilient future

    EBC 4.29.15

    Overview of Massport

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    Massport is an independent authority

    governed by a board of directors,

    appointed by the states governor

    Massport owns and operates

    Boston-Logan International Airport

    Hanscom Field, Bedford, MA

    Worcester Airport Conley Container Terminal

    Black Falcon Cruiseport

    Various real estate assets

    Boston Logan International Airport

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    98

    Port of Boston

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    99

    Port of Boston

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    100

    Oldest continually active port

    in Western Hemisphere (400 years)

    New Englands maritime hub

    Supports 34,000 jobs

    $2 billion to local, regional,

    and national economies

    Paul W. Conley Container Terminal

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    101

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    Privately owned petroleum and

    liquefied natural gas terminals

    Supplies more than 90% ofMassachusetts' heating and fossil fuel

    needs.

    Two ship repair yards,

    Public and private ferry operations,

    Marinas,

    Coast Guards Sector Boston

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    Cruiseport Boston

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    104

    Connects New England with premier tourist destinations along the NorthAtlantic, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean and beyond.

    Secure and Resilient Massport on Boston Harbor

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    105

    DRIVERS

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    106

    DRIVERS

    For Action

    Resiliency and National Security

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    Climate (extreme weather, drought, sea level rise)

    as global threat multiplier Food and water shortages

    More poverty

    Forced migrations

    Higher unemployement

    Atlantic Ocean Increased frequency of storms

    Destablize U.S. Fleets and ships

    Stressed weapon systems

    Damage to ports

    Increased calls for military assistance

    Vulnerabilities

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    108

    Vulnerabilities

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    109

    Vulnerabilities

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    110

    Preparation for Superstorm Sandy

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    111

    Resident Engineers on-site inspections Construction scaffolding removed

    Tie-downs on bridge

    Cleaned screens for storm drains

    FOD removed before (and after) Secure doors

    Hazardous Waste

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    112

    Hazardous waste moved inside Hazardous waste moved inside

    Monitoring

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    113

    Massport essential personnel

    Fire

    Safety

    Operations

    Resident Engineers

    Term-contractors on-site Roofing

    Electrical

    Mechanical

    Pumping

    Cleaning

    Assessing Damage

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    Solar panels destroyed

    Terminals flooded Standards and signs blown over

    Vehicles destroyed

    Roofing membranes peeled off

    Possible Impacts

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    Airports

    Logan Airport prolonged closureregional/national, internationaltransportation/economic impacts

    Passenger, business, critical goods, and commerce disruption

    Lack of ability to serve area-wide storm recovery efforts

    Maritime

    Major facility and equipment loss leading to long term closure Loss of cruise & container business

    Real Estate Financial risks associated with tenant disruptions/recovery

    Disruptions to local/regional transportation system

    Agency-wide Loss of human resources

    Greater recovery cost

    GOALS

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    116

    Resiliency

    GOALS

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    Program Manager of Resiliency

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    First position of its kind at Massport and possibly

    at any national port authority. Directs and coordinates resilience assessment and

    adaptation preparedness activities of Massport.

    Pursues two complementary objectives: Making the resilience plan and its principles part of

    business strategy and operations everywhere; and

    Facilitating cooperation among internal staff

    External stakeholders promoting partnership

    &collective action.

    THOUGHT PROCESSES

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    119

    OUR

    PROCESS

    Defining Resiliency

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    Resiliency is the ability of a system to withstand a major

    disruption within acceptable degradation parameters, recover

    within an acceptable time, and balance composite costs and

    risks.

    How to protect Massport facilities against long-term sea-levelrise, storm surges, intense storm events, other unplanned

    events and threats?

    How to maintain and restore operational capabilities duringand after disruptive events?

    How to implement a balanced composite cost and risk plan?

    Summary of Projects in the Region

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    Client Project Climate ImpactsDisaster and Infrastructure Resiliency

    Plan

    SLR, storm surge, precip, temp,

    wind

    Cambridge Vulnerability Assessment SLR, storm surge, precip, temp

    South Shore Communities SLR and Storm Surge study SLR, storm surge

    MA Army National Guard Vulnerability Assessment SLR, storm surge, precip, temp

    BWSCDrainage Master Plan, including climate

    projectionsSLR, storm surge, precip

    Vulnerability Assessment and

    Adaptation for the Central ArterySLR, storm surge, precip

    Preparing for the Rising Tide SLR, storm surge

    Army Corps of Engineers, with

    FEMA/MEMA

    Multi-state Hurricane Evacuation Study

    and Hurricane Surge Inundation

    Mapping

    Storm surge

    FEMA Risk Maps for Suffolk CountyUpdated FIRM flood maps

    without CC considerations

    Boston Redevelopment Authority Article 80 proposed amendmentQuestionnaire for CC building

    considerations

    Building Resiliency in BostonBuilding guidelines; planning

    horizons

    Resiliency Working Group

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    122

    Logan

    Maritime

    Worcester

    Hanscom

    Corporate

    Working Group Charge

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    Identification Threat event

    Threat level

    Impacted facilities

    Effect of impact

    Critical facilities needing protection

    Devise a Plan Avoid, minimize, recover

    Short term

    Long term

    Methodology

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    Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5

    Findings

    Identify resolutions

    to minimize or

    eliminate the gap

    Resiliency

    Redundancy

    Development

    Identify Threats and

    Hazards

    Natural

    Technological

    Human Caused

    Based on historical

    occurrences and

    probability models.

    Assess Probabilityand Impact of each

    threat/ hazard

    Assess Vulnerabilities

    Functionality

    Structural Integrity

    Environmental

    Considerations

    Accessibility

    Current and Planned

    Activities

    Vulnerabilities

    already being

    addressed

    External

    coordination

    Shortrange and

    CapitalImprovement plans

    Gap Analysis

    Gap between CI/KR

    requirement and

    existing or planned

    capability

    Identify Critical

    Infrastructure and Key

    Resources (CI/KR)

    What the CI/KR is

    required to do

    Identify

    dependencies and

    interrelationships

    Step 6

    Modified DHS Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Model

    Threats & Hazards to Critical Infrastructure

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    NATURAL TECHNOLOGICAL HUMAN-CAUSED

    Resulting from acts of nature Involves accidents or the

    failures of systems and

    structures

    Caused by the intentional

    actions of an adversary

    Earthquake

    Flood*

    High winds*

    Hurricane*

    Sea Level Rise*

    Tornado

    Tsunami

    Fire Winter Storm*

    * Addressed in Kleinfelder Study forLogan and Maritime

    Data Loss

    Power Loss

    Fire/Accident

    Sabotage

    Terrorism Acts (Bomb Blast)

    Critical Infrastructure/Key Resources

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    Utilities Transportation

    Electrical/Vaults/Sub Stations/Distribution etc.

    Drainage

    Generators

    Water

    Parking

    Surface Roads

    Elevated Roads

    Tunnels

    Bridges

    Transit

    Taxi

    Shuttle

    Rental Car

    Fuel Systems Human Capital

    Aviation Fuel

    Ground Fuel

    Generator Fuel

    Workforce

    HR Functions

    Qualified Maintenance

    Security

    IT Equipment/Buildings

    ATCTower

    Telecommunications

    Network

    Software

    HardwareEnterprise

    Terminals

    Runway/Taxiway

    Apron

    Tower

    Security GatesBerths

    Operating Cranes

    Processing Gates

    Probability

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    High Probability/High Impact

    Natural Technological Human-Caused

    Flood

    High Winds

    Hurricane

    Fire

    Extreme Temps

    Data Loss

    Low Probability/High Impact

    Natural Technological Human-Caused

    Tsunami

    Tornado

    Earthquake

    Terrorism

    Sabotage

    Epidemic

    Disaster Infrastructure Resiliency Planning (DIRP)

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    Goals of the project:

    Understand Massports vulnerability to climate impacts

    Develop short-term and long-term resiliency strategies

    Project approach:

    Climate projections Vulnerability and risk assessment Adaptation planning

    & design

    Probability of occurrence

    Conseque

    nceofimpact

    1 2 3

    Climate Study Area

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    Logan Airport Maritime Facilities

    Historic Occurrence of HurricanesBoston (1858-2013)

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    SUB/TROPICAL STORMS

    & DEPRESSIONS

    CATEGORY 1

    HURRICANECATEGORY 2

    HURRICANES

    CATEGORY 3

    HURRICANES

    Hurricane Sandy[1]:

    October 29-30, 2012

    Hurricane Bob:

    August 16 - 29, 1991

    Hurricane Esther:

    September 10 - 27, 1961

    Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944:

    September 9 - 16, 1944

    Hurricane Gloria:

    September 27,1985

    Hurricane of 1869:

    September 79, 1869

    Unnamed (1936):

    September 8 - 25, 1936

    Hurricane Donna:

    September 12, 1960

    Unnamed (1924):

    September 27 - 30, 1924

    Hurricane Edna:

    September 11, 1954

    Hurricane of 1916:

    July 10 - 22, 1916

    Hurricane Carol:

    August 31, 1954

    Unnamed (1904):

    September 8 - 15, 1904

    Great New England

    Hurricane:

    September 21, 1938

    Unnamed (1896):

    August 30 - September 11, 1896

    Unnamed(1924):

    August 16 - 28, 1924Unnamed (1894):

    October 1 - 12, 1894

    Unnamed (1869):

    October 4 - 5, 1869

    Unnamed (1893):

    August 15 - 26, 1893

    Unnamed (1888):

    September 23 - 27, 1888

    Unnamed (1885):

    September 17 - 23, 1885

    Unnamed (1879):

    August 13 - 20, 1879

    Unnamed (1858):

    September 14 - 17, 1858

    [1]All storms listed above tracked within 150 miles of Boston, except Hurricane Sandy.

    N = Number of OccurrencesP = Annual Probability

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    N = 34

    P = 0.22

    N = 13

    P = 0.08N = 8

    P = 0.05 N = 2

    P = 0.01

    NumberofOccurrences

    Tide Levels at Peak Hurricane Storm Surge -

    Boston (1923-2013)

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    MLW MSL MHW MHHW HAT

    Category 1 1 2 0 0 0

    Category 2 2 3 2 0 0

    Category 3 0 1 0 0 0

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    Number

    ofOccurences

    MLW = Mean Low Water (-4.36 ft)MSL = Mean Sea Level

    MHW = Mean High Water

    MHHW = Mean Higher High Water

    HAT = Highest Astronomical Tide (7.73 ft)All tidal elevations are in NGVD29 datum

    Sandy made final landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on 10/30/2012 00:00 GMT as a Category 1 hurricane at MHW

    (NOAA, 2013)

    Sea Level Rise Projections

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    Global mean sea level rise scenarios provided by NOAA as part of the

    National Climate Assessment report published in December 2012.

    Logan - Flooding from Category 2 Hurricane at MHHW

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    Logan - Flooding from Category 3 Hurricane at MHHW

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    South Boston - Flooding from Category 2 Hurricaneat MHHW

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    South Boston - Flooding from Category 3 Hurricaneat MHHW

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    Terminal A

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    Terminal A - Satellite

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    Fish Pier

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    Fish Pier EastDesign Flood Elevations

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    GROUND FLOOR

    EL. = 11.11

    CAT. 3 HURRICANE (MHHW)

    FLOOD EL. = 20.46CAT. 2 HURRICANE (HAT)

    EST. FLOOD EL. = 18.28

    FEMA BFE (2009)

    FLOOD EL. = 9.81

    FEMA BFE (2013)

    FLOOD EL. = 13.81

    - All elevations are in NGVD.

    Fish Pier EastDesign Flood Elevations

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    CAT. 3 HURRICANE (MHHW)

    FLOOD EL. = 20.46

    CAT. 2 HURRICANE (HAT)

    EST. FLOOD EL. = 18.28

    GROUND FLOOR

    EL. = 10.61

    FEMA BFE (2009)

    FLOOD EL. = 9.81 - All elevations are in NGVD.

    FEMA BFE (2013)

    FLOOD EL. = 13.81

    Fish Pier EastDesign Flood Elevations

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    Fish PierResiliency Objectives

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    Resiliency Performance Objectives:

    Allow the first floors of buildings to flood

    Prevent damage to critical electrical and fire protectionsystems and building elevator machinery

    Prevent flooding of underground waste storage tanks and

    associated pump systems

    Prevent structural failure of the building due to flooding

    Fish PierPotential Recommendations (I)

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    Fish PierPotential Recommendations (II)

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    Conley Terminal

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    Conley Terminal - Overview

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    Conley Terminal - Vessel Berths

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    Conley Terminal Vessel BerthsPotential Recommendations

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    Conley TerminalVessel Cranes

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    Risk-Based Prioritization

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    Probability ofFlooding

    Determined based on Inundation Model results

    Flooded in more storm scenarios higher probability, higher priority

    Consequenceof Flooding

    Criticality Score X Occupancy Category

    Higher consequencehigher priority

    Depth ofFlooding

    Further distinguish among assets with

    same Probability and Consequence

    Higher depthhigher priority

    Based on role in

    disasterpreparedness,

    response, recovery

    Based on ASCE/SEI 24-05

    Standard for Flood ResistantDesign and Construction

    Consequence: Criticality Score

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    Description Criticality Score

    Assets required for bare-bones

    functionalityfor disaster

    preparedness, response, and

    recovery

    3

    Assets required for disaster

    responsein the immediate

    aftermath of a flood event

    2

    Assets required for facility to

    recover to acceptable level of

    service

    1

    Prioritizing Investments

    Facility Asset Name(s) Critical FunctionsEstimated

    Capital CostsFacility Asset Name(s) Critical Functions

    Estimated

    Capital Costs

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    Capital CostsTIER 1HIGHER PROBABILITY

    HIGHER CONSEQUENCEConley Site Switch House Electrical $ 140,000

    ConleyWharf Switch Houses No. 1-3, Marine

    Operations Center

    Electrical $ 254,000

    Logan Fire-Rescue II (L79) Public Safety $ 15,000

    Logan Marine Fire-Rescure (L85) Public Safety $ 345,000

    Logan Wood Island Substation (L02)* Electrical $ 359,000

    Logan Porter Street Substation (L41)* Electrical $ 474,000

    SUBTOTAL $ 1,587,000

    INTERMEDIATE CONSEQUENCE

    Fish PierFish Pier Berths, East Building, West Building,

    ElectricalMultiple $ 790,000

    Conley Berths 11-12 Access $ 500,000

    Conley Rubber Tire Gantry Cranes Cargo $ 190,000

    Conley Vessel Cranes 1-6 Cargo $ 1,650,000

    SUBTOTAL $ 3,130,000

    LOWER CONSEQUENCEConley Interchange Facility Cargo $ -

    Conley

    Reefer Building and Yard

    Electrical

    $ 200,000SUBTOTAL $ 200,000

    TIER 1 TOTAL $ 4,917,000

    TIER 2INTERMEDIATE PROBABILITY

    INTERMEDIATE CONSEQUENCEConley Fuel Island and USTs Fuel $ 70,000

    SUBTOTAL $ 70,000

    LOWER CONSEQUENCEBlack

    FalconGangway / FMT Passenger $ 150,000

    SUBTOTAL $ 150,000

    TIER 2 TOTAL $ 220,000

    TIER 3LOWER PROBABILITY

    HIGHER CONSEQUENCELogan ATC Tower, Substation, and Generator (L26) Aviation $ 61,000

    Logan MPA Administration Building / Boutwell (L25) Administration $ 882,000

    Logan Bird Island Flats Substation (L67) Electrical $ 187,000

    Logan Airfield Lighting Vault (L66) Aviation $ 296,000

    Logan Harborside Substation (L32) Electrical $ 74,000

    Conley Gate Switch House Electrical $ 340,000

    Logan Logan Office Center (L65) Administration $ 749,000

    LoganMPA Pumping Station, Electrical Building,

    Generator (L06A/B)Water $ 854,000

    Logan State Police & TSA Building (L11) Public Safety $ 822,000

    Logan Central Heating Plant / Facilities I (L18) Utilities $ 895,000

    Logan Boston EMS Station (L43) Public Safety $ -

    Logan Fire-Rescue I (L78) Public Safety $ 426,000

    SUBTOTAL $ 5,686,000

    Capital CostsTIER 3LOWER PROBABILITY

    INTERMEDIATE CONSEQUENCELogan Facilities II Maintenance $ 278,000

    Conley Administration Building, Substation Administration $ 235,000

    Logan

    BOSFuel Operations Building, Tank Farm,Fuel Island (L46) Fuel $ 503,000

    Conley Administration Building Generator Electrical $ 300,000

    Black

    FalconMain Terminal Building Passenger $ 252,000

    LoganTerminal E and West Baggage S creening

    Room (L19, L73)Passenger $ 1,356,000

    Logan Terminal C (L20-L24) Passenger $ 3,695,000

    Logan Terminal A (L31, L32) Passenger $ 827,000

    Logan Terminal B (L27, L29) Passenger $ 3,067,000

    Logan West Outfall (Bar Screen Building) Drainage $ 13,302,000

    Conley Operations Building Maintenance $ 200,000

    Conley Massport Police Pro Shop Building Public Safety $ 78,000

    Conley Massport Police Main Gate Guard House Public Safety $ 5,000

    LoganTunnel T18C (Tunnel Intersection to

    Terminal C)

    Utilities $ 200,000

    Logan Facilities III (L04) Maintenance $ 792,000

    Logan North Gate (L44) Public Safety $ 8,000

    Logan South Gate Public Safety $ 7,000

    SUBTOTAL $ 25,105,000

    LOWER CONSEQUENCELogan Fire Training Facility (Hazardous Waste) Environmental $ -

    Logan Large Vehicle Storage Building (L15) Maintenance $ 302,000

    Logan Water Shuttle Pier (L74) Access $ -

    Conley Reefer Substation Electrical $ 800,000

    Logan Tunnel T18E (CHP to Terminal E) Utilities $ 194,000

    Logan Tunnel T31B (Terminal A to Terminal B) Utilities $ 154,000

    Logan Tunnel T18A (Intersection to Terminal A) Utilities $ 170,000

    Haul Road Haul Road Sump Pump Drainage $ -

    Logan Tunnel T18B (CHP to Intersection) Utilities $ 200,000

    Logan

    Tunnel T18D (Old CHP Tunnel - PartlyAbandoned)

    Utilities

    $ 50,000

    LoganTunnel T31A (Termina A Main to

    Satellite)Utilities $ 132,000

    SUBTOTAL $ 2,002,000

    TIER 3 TOTAL $ 32,793,000

    TIERS 1-3 TOTAL $ 37,930,000

    Probability

    Lower Intermediate Higher

    Risk Based Prioritization Results

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    Lower Intermediate Higher

    Consequenc

    e

    Higher

    Logan Airport: ATC Tower, Substation & Generator

    Major NSTAR Substations

    Airfield Lighting Vault

    Data Centers

    Central Heating Plant

    Water Pumping Station

    Police, Fire-Rescue, and EMS Stations

    Conley Terminal: Gate Switch House

    Logan Airport:

    Fire-Rescue Stations 2 & 3

    Major NSTAR Substations*

    Conley Terminal:

    Site Switch House

    Wharf Switch Houses 1-3

    Intermediate

    Logan Airport: Terminals

    Fuel Farm Facilities Buildings

    Security Gates

    Stormwater Drainage Facility

    Conley Terminal: Administration & Operations Buildings

    Police Facilities

    Black Falcon Terminal:

    Main Terminal

    Conley Terminal: Fuel Island and USTs

    Conley Terminal: Berths 11-12

    Vessel Cranes 1-6 RTG Cranes

    Fish Pier: East Building

    Electrical

    Berths

    Lower

    Logan Airport: Utility Tunnels

    Large Vehicle Storage Building

    Water Shuttle Pier

    Conley Terminal:

    Reefer Substation

    Haul Road: Sump Pump

    Black Falcon Terminal: Gangway/FMT

    Conley Terminal: Interchange Facility

    Reefer Building & Yard

    Design Flood Elevations

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    Comparison of SLOSH & BH-FRM Flood ElevationsLogan Airport

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    Common RecommendationsPedestrian Doors

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    Common RecommendationsOverhead Doors

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    Common RecommendationsHydrostatic Relief Valve for Slabs

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    Common RecommendationsSump Pump System to Remove Water

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    Common RecommendationsShut-Off Valve for Sewer and Drainage

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    Prevent backflow intoflood-protected areas

    Common RecommendationsSeal Electrical Conduits Entering Building

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    Common Resiliency RecommendationsTemporary Flood Walls

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    New Construction

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    New Construction

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    Expansion Solutions

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    West Garage Expansion

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    Existing and New

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    Green/Blue Infrastructure

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    UMass Boston IGERT Fellows

    Potential role of eelgrass beds to increase resiliencyprosand cons

    Best type and size of bed to slow storm surges and stabilizesea bottom

    Appropriate locations Best management practices for planting and maintenance Environmental factors to consider Other ecosystem services provided by eelgrass

    What went wrong last timeenlightened speculation Plan moving forward

    Federal:

    Monitoring and Engaging in Other Efforts

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    Federal: FEMA Flood maps

    Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012

    EPA Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

    Regional: Climate Leaders Summit

    State: MA Legislation Chapter 21 P (CAMP)

    EEEA Climate Change Adaptation Advisory Comm.

    NGO Climate Adaptation Coalition

    Local: BRA Re-modeling FEMA transects

    Academia MIT, UMB, NE, UNH

    Other: Related Agencies (MBTA, Mass DOT, etc.)

    Resiliency Program

    Next Steps:

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    Near and long-term priorities identified

    Cost estimates and capital program planned

    Education

    Speaker series for lessons learned and best management practices

    Invite colleagues from other port authorities, as well as local experts

    Technical training for planners, architects and engineers

    Create resiliency planning and design standards

    Integrate resiliency considerations early into review process

    Engage tenants through TAA process

    Collaboration Convene task force of internal and external partners to share knowledge, inform plans, and explore

    collaborative opportunities

    Continued collaboration

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    Enhance Operational Resiliency

    Update the Continuity of Operations Plan

    Engage tenants

    Improve airside materials storage practices

    Collaborate with Other Agencies

    Demonstrate leadership through collaborating with, supporting,

    and learning from other complementary transportation entities

    Create a Resiliency Task Force Participate in external

    committees efforts at federal, state, and local level Sponsor Research/Share Lessons Learned

    Questions

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    Networking Break

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    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

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    Massachusetts

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    Office of Coastal Zone Management:

    Advancing resilience ofcoastal communities and ecosystems

    MA CZM Lead policy and planning

    agency on coastal and

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    ocean issues within EEA

    Networked coastal

    program

    Provide direct support,

    coordination, and

    technical assistance to

    coastal communities

    5 CZM regions

    Regional Coordinatorsserve as liaisons to locals

    Host two National Estuary

    Programs

    Key CZM program areas

    Ocean management

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    StormSmart Coasts

    Coastal habitat

    Water quality Waterfront, port and harbor

    planning

    Project review

    GIS / data management

    Ocean management CZM serves as lead agency in

    implementing reviewing and

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    implementing, reviewing, and

    updating the Massachusetts OceanManagement Plan

    Comprehensive work to map and

    characterize marine habitats

    Federal offshore wind process Regional ocean partnerships

    Northeast Regional Planning Body

    Northeast Regional Ocean Council

    Gulf of Maine Council Northeast Regional Association of

    Ocean Observing Systems

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    StormSmart Coasts Technical information, data, maps,

    and decision support tools:

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    and decision support tools:

    Shoreline change & characterization Sea level rise

    Coastal structure inventory

    Provide hands-on technical andfinancial assistance to communities

    Coastal Community ResilienceGrants

    Green Infrastructure for ResilienceGrants

    StormSmart Properties fact sheets

    Training and workshops

    Coastal habitat CZM works to monitor, protect, and

    restore coastal habitats and the

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    essential services they provide Project to examine vulnerability ofsalt marshes to SLR; model scenariosand forecast effects

    Provide Coastal Pollutant RemediationGrants for local coastal water qualityrestoration and boat pump-outs

    Work with MassDEP & UMass on

    developing and implementing coastalwetland habitat assessment methods

    Monitor marine invasive species;emphasis on detecting new invasions

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    For more information:

    mass.gov/czm/

    Massachusetts Office of Coastal

    Zone Management: Planning and

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    Marc Carullo

    GIS / Environmental Analyst

    MA CZM

    Environmental Business Council of New England

    Energy Environment Economy

    g g

    Resiliency Efforts

    Modeling Sea Level Rise in Coastal Wetlands:Predicted Impacts and Implications for Management in Massachusetts

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    Marc Carullo

    Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management

    Photo credit: Mike McHugh, MassDEP

    Coastal Wetlands

    Salt marsh

    Intertidal emergent wetland dominated by grasses

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    Intertidal emergent wetland dominated by grasses,

    forbs, and shrubs that are tolerant to salinity rangesfrom moderate to that of sea water (18-30 ppt).

    Brackish marsh

    Intertidal emergent wetland dominated by grasses,

    forbs, and shrubs that are tolerant to salinities from

    slight to moderate (0.5 to 18 ppt).

    Mass. Coastal Watersheds

    USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service

    Salt Marsh Ecosystem Services

    Flood Protection

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    Flood Protection

    Erosion Control

    Wildlife Habitat

    Commercial Fisheries

    Water Quality

    Recreation

    Carbon Sequestration

    USFWS

    Salt Marsh Status & Trends

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    Photo: National Park Service

    Photo: National Park Service

    Photo: Bertness LabBrown University

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    Project Goals

    1 Id tif t ti l h t tl d t lt f l l i

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    1. Identify potential changes to wetland types as a result of sea level rise.

    2. Identify barriers to and opportunities for landward marsh migration.

    3. Communicate results via web-based maps, reports, and workshops.

    4. Explore adaptation strategies to address potential SLR impacts to

    coastal wetlands.

    5. Establish a network of long-term monitoring stations to measure

    impacts of sea level rise and potential marsh migration.

    Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model(SLAMM), Version 6.2

    Simulates the dominant processes involved in

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    p

    wetland conversions and shoreline modificationsduring long-term SLR.Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc.

    *Data from NOAA Office for Coastal Management

    Current MHHW* Current MHHW + 6 ft SLR*

    North and South

    Rivers in Marshfield

    and Scituate

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    SLAMM 6 2

    Additional model inputs

    Digital Elevation Model

    (lidar-derived)

    Model Inputs

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    Additional model inputs

    Dam locations Dam crest elevations

    SLR historic trend

    Beach sedimentation rate

    Freshwater Parameters (flow, etc.)

    Wetland Map Data

    Impervious Surface

    Erosion Rates (horizontal)

    Accretion Rates (vertical)

    GD Tide Range (MHHW-MLLW)

    Salt Elevation (+ MTL)

    Marsh Equilibrium Model(MEM) accretion rates*

    *For select areas

    SLAMM-MEM Pilot Site

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    Compare 2 m and 5 m grids

    Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

    Elevation Uncertainty Analysis

    SLAMM

    Statewide

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    Time Variable Accretion

    DRAFT

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    DRAFT

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    DRAFT

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    DRAFT

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    DRAFT

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    DRAFT

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    Barriers to (and opportunities for) marsh migration

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    2070High SLR w/MEM

    Draft Pilot

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    Legend

    Transitional Marsh/Scrub Shrub

    Reguarly Flooded Marsh

    Irregularly Flooded Marsh

    2070High SLR w/MEM

    Draft Pilot

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    Legend

    Transitional Marsh/Scrub Shrub

    Reguarly Flooded Marsh

    Irregularly Flooded Marsh

    Impervious Surface

    2070High SLR w/MEM

    Draft Pilot

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    Legend

    Coastal Structure

    Transitional Marsh/Scrub Shrub

    Reguarly Flooded Marsh

    Irregularly Flooded Marsh

    Impervious Surface

    2070High SLR w/MEM

    Draft Pilot

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    Legend

    Coastal Structure

    Transitional Marsh/Scrub Shrub

    Reguarly Flooded Marsh

    Irregularly Flooded Marsh

    Impervious Surface

    SlopeHigh : 60.5003

    Low : 0

    2070High SLR w/MEM

    Draft Pilot

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    Legend

    Coastal Structure

    Transitional Marsh/Scrub Shrub

    Reguarly Flooded Marsh

    Irregularly Flooded Marsh

    Impervious Surface

    Assessor Parcels

    SlopeHigh : 60.5003

    Low : 0

    Anticipated OutcomesOutreach and Education

    Public outreach and education on the fate of coastal wetlands using the

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    Public outreach and education on the fate of coastal wetlands using the

    latest SLR projections and local data.

    Better integration of salt marshes into CZMs StormSmart Coasts program.

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    Anticipated OutcomesRestoration

    Determination of priority coastal wetland restoration areas.

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    Determination of priority coastal wetland restoration areas.

    Information to assess future objectives in ecological restoration.

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    Anticipated OutcomesSpecies and habitat conservation

    Comparison or update of the coastal adaptation analysis used in BioMap2.

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    Saltmarsh Sparrow nest

    Photo credit: David Johnson

    Saltmarsh Sparrow

    Illustration credit:

    Massachusetts Audubon Society

    Potential habitat loss due

    to high marsh conversionto low marsh or tidal flat.

    Saltmarsh Sparrow

    Anticipated Outcomes

    Land Management

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    Identification of sites for land acquisition,

    conservation restrictions, and/or changes

    in land management practices.

    Improved management of hardened coastal

    structures (proposal, maintenance, or removal).

    CZM Grant Programs(1) Coastal Community Resilience and (2) Green Infrastructure

    Municipal Coastal Resiliency Plans*Ipswich River Watershed Association and National Wildlife Federation

    Restoring Resiliency to the Great Marsh*Various partners

    *USFWS Hurricane Sandy Recovery Projects

    Anticipated OutcomesEmerging Concept: Blue Carbon Market

    Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act

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    Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020 Update

    Bringing Wetlands to Market initiative

    InVEST Blue Carbon Model

    Aboveground

    living biomass

    Belowground

    biomass

    Soil Soil

    Adapted from The Blue Carbon Initiatives Coastal Blue Carbon: Methods for assessing

    Set up 20-40 salt marsh monitoring stations

    Marsh Migration Monitoring

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    statewide based on model results andstakeholder participation.

    Track the movement of plant community

    structure, especially in the marsh-upland

    ecotone.

    Collect physical data on hydroperiod, surfaceelevation, relative vertical accretion/erosion,

    and soil characteristics.*

    *Possible addition at select sites

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    [email protected]

    Massachusetts Office of Coastal

    Zone Management: Planning and

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