15
3Q.2011 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast Argentina to have 60.4 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Movistar taking 30% market share October 2011

3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast Executive Summary

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

This FreeSight report contains an executive summary of our 3Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015. IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Argentina provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Argentina’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2015. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2013. Mobile network operators covered for Argentina include: Telecom Argentina S.A., Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.), Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTI, and Nextel Communications Argentina S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates. Notable highlights of the 3Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast include: · Subscriber growth is slowing down in Argentina. The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 6.1% in 2Q.2011, down from 10.2% in 2Q.2010. Telecom Argentina saw its subscriber growth (YoY) increase from 12.9% in 2Q.2010 to 13.5% in 2Q.2011. Movistar Argentina (Telefonica)’s subscriber growth declined from 8.3% in 2Q.2010 to -0.1% in 2Q.2011. Claro (America Movil)’s subscriber growth declined from 9.8% in 2Q.2010 to 4.9% in 2Q.2011. · ARPU growth in Argentina remains positive. The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 11.33 in 2Q.2011, up +12.0% YoY. Movistar, Nextel and Telecom Argentina continue to increase their ARPUs. In particular, Claro’s ARPU growth was the highest among operators in the latest quarter. Its monthly ARPU was US$9.62 in 2Q.2011, up +17.1% YoY.

Citation preview

Page 1: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

3Q.2011 Argentina Mobile Operator ForecastArgentina to have 60.4 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Movistartaking 30% market share

October 2011

Page 2: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

2

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

INDUSTRY AVERAGE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IN THE ARGENTINE WIRELESS MARKET IS ABOUT 6%

The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 6.1% in 2Q.2011, down from 10.2% in 2Q.2010.

Telecom Argentina saw its subscriber growth (YoY) increase from 12.9% in 2Q.2010 to 13.5% in 2Q.2011.

Movistar Argentina (Telefonica)’ssubscriber growth declined from 8.3% in 2Q.2010 to -0.1% in 2Q.2011

Claro (America Movil)’s subscriber growth declined from 9.8% in 2Q.2010 to 4.9% in 2Q.2011.

On the other hand, Nextel's subscriber growth rose from 9.8% in 2Q.2010 to 12.5% in 2Q.2011.

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

Telecom Argentina S.A. Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.) Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTI Nextel Communications Argentina S.A. Industry Total

Chart 1: Subscriber Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Argentina6.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2011

Page 3: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

3

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

INDUSTRY AVERAGE ARPU IN ARGENTINA IS INCREASING

The industry average monthly ARPU was US$ 11.33 in 2Q.2011, up +12.0% YoY.

Movistar, Nextel and Telecom Argentina continue to increase their ARPUs. In particular, Claro’s ARPU growth was the highest among operators in the latest quarter. Its monthly ARPU was US$9.62 in 2Q.2011, up +17.1% YoY.

Nextel’s ARPU remains much higher than those of the other operators. Nextel’s monthly ARPU rose by 3.7% (YoY) to reach US$ 37.21 in 2Q.2011.

Chart 2: ARPU Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

ARPU growth in Argentina remains positive12.0% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2011

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

Telecom Argentina S.A. Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.) Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTI Nextel Communications Argentina S.A. Industry Total

Page 4: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

4

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

The operator-wide average Minute of Use (MOU) per subscriber was 111 minutes per month in 2Q.2011, up +2.9% YoY.

MOU per subscriber at Telecom Argentina, Movistar, and Claro was 103 minutes, 91 minutes, and 131 minutes respectively in 2Q.2011.

MOU/Sub growth (YoY) at Telecom Argentina and Movistar was 3.1% and 4.8% respectively in 2Q.2011.

On the other hand, Claro’s MOU/Sub growth (YoY) was negative at -2.2% in 2Q.2011 (which is the same as in 2Q.2010).

Chart 3: MOU/Sub Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

Minutes of Use per Subscriber is stabilizingIndustry average MOU/Sub is approximately 111 minutes per month

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

Telecom Argentina S.A. Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.)

Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTI Industry Total

Page 5: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

5

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

+18.2% INDUSTRY-AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH IN 2Q.2011

The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) in 2Q.2011 was 18.2%, down from 19.4% in 2Q.2010.

EBITDA growth rate at Telecom Argentina increased from 22.8% in 2Q.2010 to 34.5% in 2Q.2011.

EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at Movistarfell from 9.5% in 2Q.2010 to 8.2% in 2Q.2011.

EBITDA growth rate at Claro was 12.2% in 2Q.2011 (down from 36.0% in 2Q.2010).

Nextel’s EBITDA growth was 28.6% in 2Q.2011 (up from -19.4% in 2Q.2010).

Chart 4: EBITDA Growth (4Q08 – 2Q11), %

Strong EBITDA growth in Argentina continues18.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2011

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

Telecom Argentina S.A. Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.) Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTI Nextel Communications Argentina S.A. Industry Tatal

Page 6: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

6

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber connections in Argentina will increase from 51.6 million in the end of 2010 to 60.4 million in the end of 2015.

Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Movistar will have approximately 18.2 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015.

We expect that Telecom Argentina will have 19.9 million wireless subscribers in 2015 (32.9% market share).

In our view, Claro will have 20.8 million mobile subscribers in Argentina with a 34.5% market share in 2015.

Chart 5: Subscribers by operator (CY09 – CY15F)

So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total mobile subscriber connections in Argentina to reach 60.4 million in 2015

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F CY14F CY15F

subs

crib

ers

(000

s)

Telecom Argentina S.A.Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.) Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTINextel Communications Argentina S.A.

Page 7: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

7

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

WE EXPECT THE OPERATOR-WIDE AVERAGE ARPU LEVEL TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS

Our forecasting model predicts that monthly ARPU levels in Argentina will be increasing over the forecast period.

According to our model, the industry average ARPU will be approximately ARS 53.50 per month in 2013.

We expect that monthly ARPUs at Movistar and Telecom Argentina will remain in the range of ARS 50 – 60 over the next two years.

Nextel’s ARPU level will continue to be the highest in Argentina’s wireless market. We expect that it will be about ARS 168 in 2013.

Chart 6: Average Revenue per User (ARPU) per month (CY09 – CY13F), ARS

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?Industry average ARPU in Argentina will be increasing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F

Arg

entin

e P

eso

(AR

S)

Telecom Argentina S.A.Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.) Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTINextel Communications Argentina S.A. Average

Page 8: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

8

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Source: IEMR

WE EXPECT CLARO TO ENJOY HIGHEST EBITDA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS

Our model is predicting that, from 2012 to 2013, Claro’s EBITDA margins will remain higher than those of Telecom Argentina and Movistar at about 48% - 49%.

We forecast that Telecom Argentina's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will improve from 40.2% in 2009 to 43.2% in 2013.

We expect that Movistar’s EBITDA margin will also be about 34% in 2013.

Chart 7: EBITDA margins (CY09 – CY13F), %

So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Claro to enjoy the highest profitability over the next two years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

CY09 CY10 CY11F CY12F CY13F

Telecom Argentina S.A.Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.) Claro (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) / CTINextel Communications Argentina S.A. Average

Page 9: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

9

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

IE Market ResearchWhat do we do?

We Drive Enterprise Strategy in the telecoms domain by:

Producing the BEST and most COMPREHENSIVE strategy coverage of the vendor and operator space in the world

With over 800+ operators and 50+ vendors, we cover the strategies of more telecom operators, vendors, and markets than ALL of our competitors

Page 10: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

10

About IEMR

Blue Chip client base of over 100 customers across core telco value chain . . .Operators OEMs / ODMs Network Infrastructure

Vendors

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Page 11: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

11

About IEMR

And over 200 consulting and financial services institutions are IEMR customers

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Page 12: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

12

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Thank you for reading our report. If you liked what you read, please let people know about this site by linking to us from your own website. Just

copy the html code below and paste it either into a sidebar widget or a post on your own site. It would be much appreciated!

Here is the code to copy/paste: <a href="https://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/3Q11-Argentina-

Mobile-Operator-Forecast-2011--2015-Argentina-to-have-60-4-million-mobile-subscriber-connections-in-2015-with-Movistar-Argentina-taking-30-market-share-

RID2724-1.aspx">Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast</a>

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Page 13: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

13

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

If you would like to purchase the full report together with the detailed Excel sheets and forecasts, please click here and sign

up as a member client. You can also call us at +1 604 327 4367 or email us at

[email protected]

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Page 14: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

14

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) and IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR) about the firm(s) and/or industry appearing in this report. Any “forward looking statements” are the best estimates and opinions of the analyst(s) and IEMR based upon information that is publicly available and that the analyst(s) and IEMR believes to be correct. There is no guarantee that forecasts appearing in this report will materialize.

The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of IEMR, a portion of which are or have been generated by consulting and contract research activities undertaken by IEMR for firm(s) appearing in this report. The analyst(s) and/or IEMR does not own any shares of the firm(s) appearing in this report, does not make or offer for sale shares of the firm(s) appearing in this report, and does not have any investment banking business with firm(s) appearing in this report. IEMR may have been contracted by firm(s) appearing in this report to undertake competitive intelligence, business strategy, market research, branding research, and/or public opinion research activities. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report.

Forward Looking StatementsThis report contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements regarding firm(s) inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the firm(s)’ products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the firm(s)’ new products/services; competitive factors; new products/services introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; mergers and acquisitions; systematic risks and other risks discussed in the firm(s)’ periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the appropriate securities regulators. By making these forward looking statements, the analyst(s) and IEMR undertake no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report.

WarrantiesThe information contained in this report has been compiled by IEMR from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by IEMR or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. IEMR does not make any warranties, expressed or implied, as to results to be obtained from using this information and makes no express or implied warranties or fitness for a particular use. Clients using this report assume full responsibility for whatever results they obtain from whatever use the information was put to. To the full extent permitted by law neither IEMR nor any other person accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein.

IE Market ResearchDisclaimers and Disclosures

Page 15: 3 Q11 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast   Executive Summary

15

© 2011 IE Market Research Corp.All rights reserved.

Dissemination of ResearchIEMR endeavours to make all reasonable efforts to provide research simultaneously to all eligible clients. However, IEMR’s premium clients may have access to IEMR research prior to research being disseminated more widely. IEMR’s research is posted to our proprietary website to ensure eligible clients receive intelligence in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done by IEMR’s sales personnel via email, fax or regular mail. Clients may also receive our research via third party vendors. Please contact our research department at 1-888-322-IEMR for more information regarding our research.

Licensing AgreementAny survey data, forecasting data, and research reports and the information contained therein are the intellectual property of IEMR, and permission to use the same is granted on a single-user or multi-user basis to all Clients. IE Market Research Corp. will not distribute in any way, shape, or form results of contract research that would, in any way, harm the competitive position of its Client.

IE Market Research Corp. will be entitled to the copyright in all reports and other documents or electronic media produced by it in connection with work undertaken independently of any Client contract. In performing services, IE Market Research Corp. may use without limitation any of its property including hardware, software, IE Market Research Corp.’s proprietary products and confidential information and trade secrets of IE Market Research Corp. Such property will remain the property of IE Market Research Corp. and the Client shall acquire no right or interest in it.

IEMR’s licensing agreement is perhaps the most liberal in the industry. Two licensing options are available for our Clients:• Single-user License: Allows Clients to read, print, and distribute printed copies of IEMR survey data, forecasting data, and research reports (and all purchased elements therein) within the Client’s organization, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. Clients are also allowed to use and manipulate this data for their internal corporate purposes, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. A Single-user License does not give the Client the right to electronically distribute IEMR survey data, forecasting data, and research reports to any other individual either within an organization or outside it.• Multi-user License: Allows Clients to read, print, and distribute printed and electronic copies of IEMR survey data, forecasting data, and research reports (and all purchased elements therein) within the Client’s organization, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. Clients are also allowed to use and manipulate this data for their internal corporate purposes, provided that IEMR is cited as the source. A Multi-user License does not give the Client the right to distribute IEMR survey data, forecasting data, and research reports to other individuals outside the Client’s organization.

CONSUMEREADY™ and EXPORTREADY™ are registered trademarks of IEMR. Reproduction of material contained herein, in whole or in part or use for any public purpose is only permitted with the prior approval of IEMR. Courtesy copies of reproduced material are appreciated. Electronic reuse of the data contained herein is strictly prohibited.

IE Market ResearchDisclaimers and Disclosures