MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING TONGA

MONITORING AND EVALUATION STRATEGY

Participatory M&E

PROBLEM ANALYSIS

by

Vilimaka Foliaki

Monitoring and Evaluation Advisor

Tonga Education Support Program, Phase 2

Ministry of Education and Training

Kingdom of Tonga

DECEMBER 11, 2015

Table of Contents Take time to understand the target problem(s) ................................................................................................ 1

The Problem Tree ................................................................................................................................. 1

The Problem Tree – a collaboration between stakeholders ................................................................ 2

Drawing a Problem tree: A brainstorming exercise ............................................................................. 3

Assess complexity of the core problem ............................................................................................... 4

The Solution Tree ............................................................................................................................................... 5

What the Solution Tree shows ............................................................................................................. 6

Program design analysis .................................................................................................................................... 7

Interventions ........................................................................................................................................ 7

Goals and objectives ............................................................................................................................ 8

References ......................................................................................................................................................... 9

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Take time to understand the target problem(s) One critical step in planning for M&E is establishing a complete understanding of the target problems

the M&E processes have been created to solve.

Our primary purpose for developing a new policy, initiating a project or program, and even starting up of

a new organization, is to find solutions to a problem or problems. We then create M&E systems and put

them in place because we want these activities to attain our primary purpose.

A complete understanding of the core problems provides the foundation for solutions that work;

solutions that not only address the complexity of root causes but also consider the consequences if

these problems are not solved. This a necessary step; cutting corners is recipe to failure.

For individuals who are responsible for M&E, such an understanding provides clarity especially in regard

to activities to monitor and indicators to track and evaluate.

The Problem Tree The Problem Tree is a tool which can be used to develop this thorough understanding. It is structured as

seen in Figure 1 below, and it provides a clear overview of an identified problem, its likely causes, and

effects.

Figure 1: Problem Tree - showing the core problem, its causes and effects.

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The Problem Tree is also known by other names such as Situational Analysis, Problem and Solution Tree,

and Problem Analysis.

As shown in Figure 1, the Problem Tree has three distinct parts: trunk, roots, and branches. The core

problem makes up the trunk, the causes of the core problem make up the roots, and the effects of the

problem make up the branches.

However, it can also be drawn using the format below (Figure 2), and can have many levels of effects

and causes.

The Problem Tree – a collaboration between stakeholders

Drawing a Problem Tree is a collaborative exercise between stakeholders. During this exercise, diversity

of ideas and experiences are shared as stakeholders explore the core problem. This means that the rich

understanding that results from this collaboration is not just for specific individuals but for all

stakeholders.

This participatory arrangement also

promotes a clear understanding of the

complexity of the core problem, and a

common understanding of key issues.

Figure 2: Problem Tree format

Note:

1. There is a separate unit on Stakeholders. Please

refer to it for more information regarding your

stakeholders. 2. Drawing of the Problem Tree is an exercise to

carried out collaboratively between stakeholder

members. 3. Alternatively, individuals can identify problems in

their local working areas and bring to a group

setting for group vetting and identification and

priorities.

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Drawing a Problem tree: A brainstorming exercise (Note: This exercise can also be completed on the whiteboard or using stick-on notes of different

colours.)

Steps to follow:

1. Brainstorm the core problem, and write it at the centre (of the tree or page, whiteboard, chart).

For example, your stakeholders might agree that a core problem that needs to be solved is

“High drop-out rate in primary school”.

2. Brainstorm the direct or primary causes of the core problem, and place these below the core

problem. This step involves writing causes as negative statements such as:

‘Lack of good teachers’ or ‘Bad teaching’ or

‘Not enough classrooms’.

Each cause must be clearly written and ensure that all members have developed a consensual

understanding of all causes and what they mean.

3. Draw a line to connect the primary causes to the core problem. Use one line for each cause.

Refer to Figure 3 on the next page if you are unsure of what to do.

4. Brainstorm the causes to the primary causes of the problem. These are the secondary causes of

the core problem. Place these below the primary causes.

5. Draw a line to connect the secondary causes to their respective primary causes. Refer to Figure

3 on the next page if you are unsure of what to do.

6. Brainstorm the direct or immediate effects of the core problem, place these above the core

problem.

7. Draw a line to connect each immediate effect to the core problem. Refer to Figure 3 on the next

page.

8. Also brainstorm the longer term effects of the problem, and write these above the immediate

effects.

9. As you had done above, connect the longer term effects to the immediate effects.

A simple Problem Tree (Figure 3) is provided on the next page as an example. Your Problem Tree should

be more comprehensive than this example.

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Assess complexity of the core problem What is coming out very clearly from our Problem Tree is that the core problem is complex:

It is caused by a multitude of factors.

The effects of the problem are diverse.

There is no simple solution – it cannot be solved by simply solving only one cause.

Needs a complex solution – that can solve all causes.

Figure 3: Problem Tree sample for ‘High drop-out rate in primary school’.

Problems are complex! This kind of analysis shows that the problem is complex and that to completely solve it, you

need to work collaboratively with others (e.g. senior management individuals, planning

team members, etc.) to develop multiple interventions.

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The Solution Tree Once you have completed your Problem Tree, you can then begin to explore a solution to the core

problem by drawing a Solution Tree (Figure 4). As with the drawing of the, the Solution Tree is also a

collaborative exercise.

The Solution Tree, is developed by reversing the negative statements, which are used in Figure 3), into

positive ones. The resulting Solution Tree is shown in Figure 4 below.

Compare Figure 3 on the previous page to Figure 4 below!

Figure 4: Solution Tree for "High drop-out rate in primary school".

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What the Solution Tree shows

The Solution Tree provides three (3) very important ideas regarding our design, as shown in Figure 5

below:

1. The bottom levels (roots) – inform our interventions and the activities that need to carried to

solve the problem.

2. The middle level (trunk) – informs our objectives and the immediate results to be achieved.

3. The top levels (branches) – inform the goals or longer term effects of the results.

The next section elaborates further on each of the above design factors.

Figure 5: What the Solution Tree is telling us

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Program design analysis Interventions From the above analysis, it is clear that we need do more than just one activity. For example, the

Solution Tree (Figure 4) indicates three (3) interventions. Depending on your resources (finance, skills,

etc.) you decide on your activities.

1. Intervention I – to result in “Good quality teaching. For example, to have “good quality teaching” in

primary schools, you might decide to do the following:

a) Short-term training for untrained teachers. This is supposed to make immediate impact

on the quality of teaching in the classroom.

b) Ongoing primary teacher mentor system using experienced retired teachers. This also

aims at making immediate impact on the quality of teaching. Since this is an ongoing

activity, there is hope that it will also make long term impact on the quality of teaching.

c) 100 teaching scholarships (Primary schools) for high achieving students in Forms 6 and

7, for the next 5 years. This aims at making a long term positive impact on teaching

quality.

2. Intervention II – to result in “Enough schools”. You might consider:

a) Building new schools in areas that need them. This will need architectural and

engineering planning, etc.

b) Expanding and renovating existing schools – in villages and communities that are in

need. As in (a), there is a need to secure the services of appropriate technical people

such as carpenters, architect, etc.

c) Carrying out further investigation to find out more about other possible root causes. For

example, you carry out a survey and find out that children in rural areas are attending

schools in town because their parents want them to. Other interventions can be

designed based on this information.

3. Intervention III – to result in producing “Enough books”. You will also realize that good teachers

need good resources. So you might want to:

a) Re-vise the old curriculum, and may involve re-writing some parts of the curriculum,

hiring new staff, building new office space, purchasing new office furniture, etc.

b) Re-print the curriculum, and this may need new machines, and relevant resources.

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Goals and objectives Further to the interventions, the Solution Tree also informs us about the goals and objectives of the

matter we are designing the M&E system for.

Using the Solution Tree in Figure 5, we can now formulate our goals and objectives.

For example:

Goal: To lower the incidence of social problems, unemployment, and crime rate of school-aged

youth.

Objectives:

1. To lower the school drop-out rate of youth.

2. To increase the enrolment rate of youth.

3. To reduce the out-of-school rate of school-age children.

The interventions must all be contributing to the attainment of the above objectives and goal.

There is a separate unit on SMART objectives in this

strategy. Please refer to it for more tips about how to

write clear and precise goals and objectives.

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Beyond Test Scores: leading Indicators for Education. Retrieved from Annesberg Institute for

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Government of Tonga. (March 2015). Tonga Srategic Development Framework II: A more progressive

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from Priority: A better way to work:

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