Upload
rockys11
View
911
Download
7
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
2G, 3G and BeyondAn Understanding of Technology and Services
Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond Market Segmentation
Network Convergence Market Trends
Services
2G: Technology Summary TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access
Standardized in 1990 as IS-54 Provides 3-6 times capacity increase over AMPS (1G) Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels) Introduced authentication and encryption for security
GSM: Global System of Mobile communications Standardized in 1992, based on TMDA technology Improved battery life over TDMA GPRS peak data rates of 140 kbps; EDGE data rates of 180kbps
CDMA: Code Division Multiple Access Standardized in 1993 as IS-95 Provides 1.5-2 times capacity increase over TDMA Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels)
2G: Winners & Losers TDMA
Marginally better capacity than GSM, marginally worse battery life No evolution path beyond 2G – DEAD END !!
CDMA Lots of hype on capacity, delivered on upwards of 2x capacity
improvement over TDMA/GSM Clear evolution to 3G
GSM International Roaming and Compatibility Clear evolution to 3G Defacto Global Standard
GSM: A Success StoryGrowth in China
GSM subscribers in Asia Pacific reached 650 GSM subscribers in Asia Pacific reached 650 million in March 2006million in March 2006
(521 million March 2005 = 24.7% annual growth)(521 million March 2005 = 24.7% annual growth)
GSM growth exceeded CDMA by 11x from March 05 to March 06GSM growth exceeded CDMA by 11x from March 05 to March 06
ChinaChina
GSM grew over 54 mil subs in past GSM grew over 54 mil subs in past 12 months = over 1 million/week12 months = over 1 million/week
Cdma added under 5 mil subs in Cdma added under 5 mil subs in the same periodthe same period
GSM: A Success StoryGrowth in India
India reached almost 64 million India reached almost 64 million GSM subscribers at 31.03.06GSM subscribers at 31.03.06
GSM has 77.5% market shareGSM has 77.5% market share
GSM additions = 22.7 million in GSM additions = 22.7 million in 12 months = over 55% growth12 months = over 55% growth
Cdma added 8 million in same Cdma added 8 million in same periodperiod
GSM: A Success StoryGrowth in Rest of World
Europe:Europe:Eastern Europe 289 million (48.9% annual growth)Eastern Europe 289 million (48.9% annual growth)Western Europe 426 million (8.1% annual growth)Western Europe 426 million (8.1% annual growth)
Africa:Africa:146 million (62.6% annual growth)146 million (62.6% annual growth)
Middle East:Middle East:51.4 million (63.5% annual 51.4 million (63.5% annual
growth)growth)
Americas:Americas:Canada and USA 85 million (35% annual growth)Canada and USA 85 million (35% annual growth)
Latin America and the Caribbean 144 million (92.6% annual Latin America and the Caribbean 144 million (92.6% annual growth)growth)
Evolution to 3GDrivers: Capacity, Data Speed, Cost
cdmaOnecdmaOne
GSMGSM
TDMA TDMA
2G
PDC PDC
CDMA2000 1x
CDMA2000 1x
First Step into 3G
GPRSGPRS 90%
10%
EDGEEDGE
WCDMA
WCDMA
3G phase 1 Evolved 3G
3GPP CoreNetwork
CDMA2000 1x EV/DO
CDMA2000 1x EV/DO
HSDPA/HSUPA
HSDPA/HSUPA
Expected market share
EDGEEvolution
EDGEEvolution
CDMA2000 EV/DO Rev A
CDMA2000 EV/DO Rev A
3G: Technology Summary Technology Convergence on Wideband-CDMA CDMA 2000
Successor to CDMA IS-95, 4 core standards – 1xRTT, 1x EV-DO, 1x EV-DV, 3xRTT
1xRTT provides 2x voice capacity increase over IS-95 and a peak data rate of 144kbps
EV-DO Rev A provide peak data rates of 3.1 downlink / 1.8 uplink (800kbps typical)
UMTS Successor to GSM, based on W-CDMA Peak data rates of up to 1920kbps (384kbps typical) HSDPA peak data rate of up to 14.4Mbps
3G: Winners & Losers ?? UMTS
Huge delays (terminals availability) Exorbitant license fees Confusing pricing strategies & lack of compelling services Clear evolution path
HSxPA (Peak Data Rates), LTE (Network Simplification)
CDMA2000 Early adoption (Korea) Compelling peak data rates (EV-DO) Unclear evolution path
3xRTT? WIMAX?
UMTS GrowthDevices Penetration
Source: GSA survey published February 28, 2006
315 Devices
38 Suppliers
UMTS GrowthSubscriber Penetration
Over 55 million WCDMA Over 55 million WCDMA subs at 31 March 06subs at 31 March 06
Approaching 140% Approaching 140% yearly growthyearly growth
Over 3 million adds Over 3 million adds monthly in last 6 monthsmonthly in last 6 months
WCDMA gained over WCDMA gained over 10% share of mobile 10% share of mobile
growth in Asia Q1 06 growth in Asia Q1 06
WCDMA gained 1 in 3 WCDMA gained 1 in 3 new connections in new connections in
Western Europe in Q1 06Western Europe in Q1 06
Global Subscriber Counts
0
0.5 Bn
1 Bn
1.5 Bn
2 Bn
2.5 Bn
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CDMA
GSM
PHS
W-CDMA
Note:GSM Emerging Market Handset (EMH) initiative = 80% of Global Population with Wireless Service by 2010, based on sub $30 handsets17 countries targeted = 1.8 Bn people ; not included in current sub counts
…and Beyond Technology Convergence on OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division
Multiple Access) WIMAX
Standardized by IEEE 802.16, evolution of 802.11 (Wi-Fi) Improved bandwidth, encryption and coverage over WiFi
Theoretical peak data rates of 70Mbps (practical peak ~2Mbps) Improved QoS better enables applications such as VoIP or IPTV Ideal application is for “last mile” connectivity to the home or business Intel plans to embed WiMAX chips as part of ‘Intel Inside’
L3GTE/HSOPA Early standardization work starts in 3GPP R8 Improved bandwidth, latency over UMTS/HSxPA Radio technology based on MIMO-OFDM, peak data rates of up to 70Mbps Network simplification
Wireless Access Evolution
BroadbandBroadband
New ServicesNew Services
EfficiencyEfficiency
Broadband
Subscribers
Voice
CoverageCoverage
MobilityMobility
Voice QualityVoice Quality
PortabilityPortability
CapacityCapacity
BroadbandBroadband
Network Network SimplificationSimplification
Cost of Cost of OwnershipOwnership
Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond Market Segmentation
Network Convergence Market Trends
Services
Market Segments
Cordless
WiMAX 16eHSDPA to OFDMEV-DO to OFDM
WiFiLocal
Fixed
Voice Broadband
Cellular
WiMAX 16dDSL / CablePOTS
802.11a/b/g802.11n MIMO
Mesh
Dialup
2.5G
Mobile
Operator ObjectivesVoice+
Growth to Wireless
Data+ Growth to
Broadband
Network Goals are SimilarDifferentiation on Access & Business goals
Mobile Operators Subscriber growth Wireless Data / 3G Wireline Substitution
Fixed Operators Broadband Line Growth Revenue Protection
Cable, Satellite, ISP Network Leverage New Market Penetration Video Triple Play
DriversWireless
BroadbandCore IP
Customer LifestyleSearch for Growth
Network Convergence
Internet PSTN
Reliable, Scalable, Secure
IP
SGSN
PDSN
WLAN
GGSN
HA
PDGIP
DSLAM
BRAS
PDG
WIMAX
WLAN
Service ControlPresence / GLMS
Applications
R4CDMAPSTN
Media Resources
TDM & Packet Interworking
HSS/AAA
Peer IPNetwork
Access Network
IP/MPLS Core
MultimediaServices
MessagingServices
Web / WAPServices
StreamingServices
MG15000
MGCF(CS2000)
CallSession
Controller
MRF
Audio/Video
PDG
WLAN
ASN
CSN
ASNWiMAX
GGSN
GPRSUMTS
EASGW
ASGHSOPAOFDM/MIMO
BRAS
PDG
GGSN
ASN
CSN
ASGW
Network Convergence - IMS
Network Enablers Charging
Ability to provide differentiated charging based flexible usage models, including time / data / volume
Quality of Service Ability to provide differentiated service, e.g. Olympic levels: gold /
silver / bronze Policy Management
Ability to make personalized policy decisions based on subscriber, access and content
Security Ability to provide secure access and “clean pipes” for content
delivery
Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond Market Segmentation
Network Convergence Market Trends
Services
Market Trends Media Convergence – Multiple Play
Dual Play: High-Speed Internet & Fixed Line Triple Play: Dual Play + TV Quadruple Play: Triple Play + Wireless Challenge: Consolidated Invoice and Price Points
Fixed Mobile Convergence Dual Mode connectivity
Cellular / Cordless (DECT, ADSL/Bluetooth) WLAN / WWAN
Challenge: Technology standardization MVNO – Mobile Virtual Network Operator
Wireless Service Reseller, wholesales access from wireless operators Discount & Lifestyle MVNO’s Segment, Product, Utilization Driven Challenge: Market Saturation & Service Differentiation
Market Trends (continued) M-Commerce – Electronic Commerce using Mobile Phones
Leverage ubiquity of mobile phones to make transactions Current payment methods: premium calling #’s, phone bill invoice, credit card Strong interest in key industries: banking, sports & entertainment, travel, retail Challenge: Security, Terminal Capabilities, Access Speeds
Multimedia – use of several media types to convey information Effective information delivery across many disciplines: art, education,
telecommunications, medicine IMS enables multimedia services for mobile users
VoIP Challenge: User Interface, Form Factor, lack of “killer app”
Presence – Always on, always connected Combine Mobility & Reachability Effectively bring Popularity of IM to mobile phones (AOL, Yahoo!, MSN, Skype) Opportunity for standardization & interworking based on SIP/SIMPLE Challenge: Standardization & always on connectivity
Market TrendsThe next 5 years in North America More substitution of mobile and wireless technologies for fixed lines
30% US homes will have only cellular or broadband access, driven by youth who see no value in fixed lines for telephony
Lower churn Due to consolidation, better pricing and marketing plans, higher quality
networks More mobile e-mail
Driven by popularity, proliferation of smartphones, and ease of setup and use Greater adoption of smartphones
Defined as phones that run open OS’s, e.g. Microsoft, driven by business users,
Increased mobile advertising Mobile advertising needed for added revenue generation; successful use will
require balancing intrusive nature of unsolicited ads & value to the end user
Market TrendsThe next 5 years in North America The growth of mobile entertainment
Handsets are increasing designed for entertainment with integrated cameras, MP3 players – trend will be to partner with content providers to drive usage (Google, Yahoo!, Apple)
Greater market penetration by mobile technologies and slower connection growth North America will become increasingly saturated – will drive price
competition, flexible and targeted tariff plans, and differentiation More converged services based on the IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
Will become common network infrastructure, will enable fixed and mobile service bundles
The rise of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) Will add value by offering differentiation
More mobile data applications for enterprises Increased email, as well as presence and location functions, will drive up data
usage
Services Prepaid
Segment driven, will increase with MVNO’s SMS
Remains extremely popular, key driver is use of short-code numbers Push-To-Talk
Segment driven, slow take amongst general consumers MMS
Slow adoption due to user interface, will increase due to interoperability improvements and integration with m-commerce
Downloads Ring-tones is #1 revenue generator but slowing, Gaming is on the rise
Video Video clip services are emerging, pricing is typically subscription-based
Music Music stores increasingly common, need competitive pricing, will leverage MP3 integration
Radio Satellite radio offers resell XM and Sirius
Adult CTIA recommendation for socially responsible access to content; penetration expected to start in
2008