28 Nov Analysis/Forecasting Tools for Workforce Planning: WASS - CIVFORS 28 Nov Army Civilian Analysis and Forecasting Tools (WASS+) Workforce Analysis and Support System (CIVFORS) Civilian Forecasting System (WASS+) 31 Years of History 31+ million strength records & 61 million plus transaction records Combines analytics & data warehouse capabilities for simple to complex historical analyses (CIVFORS) 700,000 strength records in history & projections & 4 million transactions Reports 5 yrs of historical data & 7-year forecasts current,budget, five year defense program years) Forecasts based on past and/or future assumptions about the workforce 28 Nov How We Use Our Tools Project Intern Requirements Respond to Queries Workforce Revitalization Outsourcing Studies Plan Realignments Project Retirements Project Hiring Needs Study Career Progression Annual Evaluation Study Workforce Dynamics Evaluate Separation Incentives Compare Armys salary/grade structure to private industry Evaluate Turnover Intern Program Evaluation Employment Page 28 Nov 5 Where We Are Today Civilian Strength As Of End Sep 03 Source: SF 113a - End Sep 03 *Includes 23,673 NGTs AF Military Function US Direct Hire FN Direct Hire FN Indirect Hire Total 196,491 8,130 17, ,530 Civil Works 25,551 Contractor - 231,000 NAF 28,443 Forward Stationed: 40,930 * 28 Nov Where Were Headed Projected Civilian Strength Thru FY09 End Strength in Thousands (000) (USDH, AF, FN Direct/Indirect, NGT) Updated Mar 03 FY04-05 Pres Bud locked position FY89 403K FY09 224K FY03 223K 28 Nov Problem: Aging Workforce 28 Nov Age Comparisons to Civilian Labor Force (CLF) * Army Population - U.S. Citizen, Direct Hire, Appropriated Fund Age Army FY92.5% 3% 17% 33% 31% 14% 2% CLF FY92 5% 11% 27% 18% 9% 3% Army FY98.2% 1% 10% 30% 42% 16% 2% CLF FY98 6% 10% 24% 27% 21% 10% 3% Army FY00.3% 1% 8% 27% 44% 18% 2% CLF FY00 6% 10% 23% 27% 22% 10% 3% ArmyQ2 FY04.3% 3% 9% 23% 40% 23% 2% ArmyProj FY06.4% 4% 10% 20% 42% 26% 2% CLFProj FY06 6% 10% 21% 24% 13% 3% Source: Employment Outlook; ; Monthly Labor Review November 2001, BLS 28 Nov January 1, 1946 December 31, 1964 Baby Boomer January 1, 1977 December 31, 1997 Baby Boom Echo January 1, 1965 December 31, 1976 Baby Dust Births (Millions) U.S. Households (Percent) U.S. Births Source: Institute for the Future, Outlook Project working documents,1999; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1998 Boomer Ages 2004: 41-59; 2010 : Bust Ages 2004: 29-39; 2010: 35 45 Boom Echo Ages 2004 : 4 27; 2010: 10 to 33 28 Nov Boom and Bust Bust BoomBoom Echo Delta 28 Nov FY Accessions: 8,070 Retirements: 11,543 Ratio of Accession to Retirements 1 to 1.4 Median age increased 45 to 48 FY Accessions: 9,847 Retirements: 7,094 Ratio of Accession to Retirements 1.4 to 1 Median age stabilizing 48/49 Notes: Median age of the AMC workforce reflects fluctuations in the numbers of accessions and retirements observed Aging occurs when accessions do not keep up with retirements Notes: Median age of the AMC workforce reflects fluctuations in the numbers of accessions and retirements observed Aging occurs when accessions do not keep up with retirements Result of Retirement & Accession Gap Strength vs. Median Age FY Strength Median Age 28 Nov Solution: Replace Retirements by New Appointments Projected Through FY09 Retirements & New Appointments Age Sample Population During 80s growth period median age Hired.98 new appointments for every retirement During 90s drawdown median age Hired 0.3 new appointments for every retirement If by FY 09 hire 1 new appointment for every retirement, median age will drop from current 49 to 45 or less New appointment full-time perm GS like pay plans median age = 30* 43* from FY All accessions median age = 22* - 34* from FY Retirement median age = 58 *includes retired military Examining Age Trends Over Time Median age can be reduced by balancing new appointments to retirements. Assumption: FY Replace projected 8256 retirees (median age of 58) with 8183 new appointments (median age of 37) 28 Nov Option 1: No Goal 3278 Total Accessions FY04 This option will reduce overall median age to approx 43 years of age or less from current 49 by FY 09; BUT will result in a workforce size which is approx 5K over target of 45.3K 28 Nov Option 2: Target Plus 1667 1923 Total Accessions FY04 This option will reduce overall median age to approx 45 years of age or less from current 49 by FY 09; BUT will result in a workforce size which is approx 1.7K over Adj. target of 47K or 3.4K above unadjusted target of 45.3 28 Nov Option 3: Target 1092 Total Accessions FY04 This option will reduce overall median age to approx 48 years of age or less from current 49 by FY 09; will result in a workforce size which is approx 3K above unadjusted target of 45.3 this allows for minimal needs of subcommands alternative freeze all hiring to get closer to 45.3K 28 Nov Historical & Forecasted Hiring Needs by Quarter Forecasted totals are for all occupations for the sample population for each quarter through FY 09 28 Nov Projected Accessions Needed to Meet Targets 28 Nov HR Planning Process Identify Workforce Requirements (All) Develop Hiring Plan Alternatives (HR) Consider budget execution targets Consider impact on age distribution Decide between Alternatives (MACOM) Develop Staffing Plans (HR) Assess Labor Supply Assess Difficulty of Filling Requirements Identify Impact on HR Workload 28 Nov Workload implications for HR staff servicing this MACOM Option 1. Plan = 3278 in total accessions for FY 04staff to execute: 40 Option 2. Plan = 1923 in total accessions for FY 04--staff to execute: 24 Option 3. Plan = 1092 in total accessions for FY 04--staff to execute: 13 Other Considerations Analyze labor supply Assess difficulty of staffing Getting ready Supplement CP10 staff via temps or perms Plan for special incentives to recruit (if types, numbers, locations ) Start recruitment effort early (depending on availability of labor) Workload implications for HR staff servicing this MACOM Option 1. Plan = 3278 in total accessions for FY 04staff to execute: 40 Option 2. Plan = 1923 in total accessions for FY 04--staff to execute: 24 Option 3. Plan = 1092 in total accessions for FY 04--staff to execute: 13 Other Considerations Analyze labor supply Assess difficulty of staffing Getting ready Supplement CP10 staff via temps or perms Plan for special incentives to recruit (if types, numbers, locations ) Start recruitment effort early (depending on availability of labor) Impact on HR Workload 28 Nov Recruitment number one issue Army Revitalization Plans based on targets being reviewed by MACOMS to designate the hiring plan they will need executed How many new hires, by when, by MACOM, installation & occupational series? Solves three equally important integrated issue 1.Bringing Workforce Age Back into Balance new hires allowed without busting budgets key to succession 2.Facilitating MACOM decisions on new hire levels needed - executable within budgetary constraints 3.Keeping CPOC/CPAC informed for planning ahead info on hiring needs of the future Recruitment number one issue Army Revitalization Plans based on targets being reviewed by MACOMS to designate the hiring plan they will need executed How many new hires, by when, by MACOM, installation & occupational series? Solves three equally important integrated issue 1.Bringing Workforce Age Back into Balance new hires allowed without busting budgets key to succession 2.Facilitating MACOM decisions on new hire levels needed - executable within budgetary constraints 3.Keeping CPOC/CPAC informed for planning ahead info on hiring needs of the future Revitalization Website 28 Nov Revitalization Plans- Review to Use Process DAPE-CP-WAFO Generate/Post Models MACOMs review by posted dates Model Targets & Hiring needs Declare one of 3 Models Official CHRA Reviews Official Starts a plan Modify targets by Posted date WAFO Reruns new model MACOM review/ Modify/declare Loops as necessary Process to be defined by MACOMs MAJOR FOCUS NOW: Process to be defined by DAPE-CP & CHRA 28 Nov Grade Creep question 28 Nov To provide numbers on VSIP use to manpower for development of budget estimates - To assess number of A-76 study related RIFseparations for estimates of costs associated with contracting out - To assess why Army lost a large number of Hispanics and Asian Americans in early 90's (transfers of function to DoD and base closures) - To access use of recruitment/relocation bonuses and retention allowances - To answer occasional Congressional inquiries (e.g., how many RIFs at a site) - To provide basis for numbers of people and costs of legislative proposals - To assess turnover of selected populations (e.g., Air Traffic Controllers and Nurses) at specified locations to help determine needs for pay change proposals - To identify retired Budget Analysts who might consider reemployment to meet 9/11 created void - To provide EEO Action Agency numbers of minorities/women for reporting purposes - To assess whether normal gains/losses might negate need for VERA - To provide information on accession of retired military trends - To ascertain how we fill jobs (pulls by nature of action and legal authority codes) for various staffing program purposes - To ascertain extent of use of monetary performance awards and dollar amounts of such awards (current administration interest) - To assess high grade/supervisory position fills (flattening the hierarchy initiative of current administration) - To identify occupations/geographic locations for which inventory based recruitment might be advantageous - To assess number of competitive vs. non-competitive promotion actions - To identify temporary/permanent/term composition of work force over time - To access age/years of service at time of retirement over time - To identify retirement system coverage of various segments of the work force for budget estimating purposes - To determine way we fill jobs (e.g., external vs. internal sources) Partial list that comes immediately to mind - the list of items on which questions arise that can be readily answered is virtually endless. Sample of one users actual WASS applications